Bitcoin weekly roadmapHi guys, I hope the growth of Bitcoin has brought you rich profits.
What happened today was that we expected a temporary drop to fill the FVG area, which it did and it bounced back to 47,000.
This upward trend continues until reaching the price area of 48000, the existence of a lot of liquidity and more resistance can bring the price back from this area.
My idea is that Bitcoin will grow to the supply area of 48000.
By collecting all the liquidity in this area, the price will experience a decrease to the demand areas of 43550 and 41250.
Of course, you should keep in mind that with the news that will come for Bitcoin on Wednesday, let's have the possibility of any reaction for Bitcoin.
Adjust your trades with optimal risk and guaranteed loss limit.
If such analyzes are useful for you, I will be happy to support you and share your opinions with me in the comments section.
Fandamentalanalysis
GOLD|Important supply and demand areasHello friends, I hope you are doing well.
We have the gold chart in 1 hour.Currently, gold is fluctuating in a trending range area and we have the top and bottom of the trending range to enter trading positions.
CPI data will be released today, if we have data that is in favor of gold, that is, the US inflation has decreased, this means that it will harm the dollar index and gold can move upwards.
We should know that apart from the top of the trending range, which is a resistance, we have the next resistance in the area of (2046-2044) and after the resistance that is the base of the falling movement, it is around (2066-2064).
On the other hand, if inflation is published more than expected, it will benefit the dollar index and can create selling pressure on gold.
The area that currently maintains the price is the area (2016-2019). If this area is broken, the next support is the price range (2004-2008) and then the price range (1990-1995).
If the price reaches these areas, we can enter trading positions with confirmation
GOLD|SHORT positions for goldThe current point for gold is the support zone of 2030 to 2035, which is very important in the daily time, so if it reaches and we see confirmations for buying transactions, we can enter.
This point is very important that if this area is broken, it can cause more selling pressure and a fall to the price of 2012.
If this happens, we can have positions to enter sell trades in the upward pullback.
Currently, if it can rise above this high limit of the trending range, around the price of 2055 is our failure area, and the base candles that are the source of movement are good areas to enter sales transactions.
Bitcoin get wiredHi guys
You may be confused as to why the price of Bitcoin increased and liquidated $718 million in just 24 hours.
Guys, this is a trap
Do not follow the price of Bitcoin and do not open a position until Bitcoin rises above 23200 and becomes stable.
It's actually impossible, but if Bitcoin gets to that point, it's an idea
So as you can see on the chart, we will be waiting for around 23,000 for the short position
You can also see the flag pattern and make sure you don't open any short positions in this area
good lock
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Bitcoin - Is this the bottom?How can you predict the bottom with all this noise?
A lot of people are calling the June low of around $17,600 as the bottom!! So, let's take a look at the charts and the global economic fundamentals and decide for ourselves.
As you all know I do not trade purely off of technical analysis. There is far more to the big picture then looking at the charts. When looking for a long-term trend change in an asset - BTC on this occasion, I look at three things:
1. Seasonal Trends - The most underrated source used by traders
2. Fundamental analysis
3. Technical analysis
1. Season Trends - There are a lot of great charts showing the seasonality of bitcoin (I encourage you to look at some). Bitcoin seasonality hinges on one thing.... BTC halving. So, every 4 years (or there abouts) we have three seasonal periods, upswing, downswing and accumulation phase. So, breaking down these three phases helps us predict where we are on the BTC price rollercoaster. Luckily for us these phases have relatively constant timeframes if we look at past performance. Upswings last anywhere from 14-18 months, downswings last anywhere from 12-14 months and accumulation phases last around 16 months. Now this doesn't mean that seasonality trends cannot change but we would be doing ourselves an injustice if we didn't consider past performance and trends not only in price action, but time also.
As we are trying to predict the bottom we will be concentrating on the downswing for the current cycle. BTC began this downswing in November 2021. Currently we sit around 10.5 months into the bear market. This means we are getting close to hitting the seasonal bottom. Within reason.... we can predict the bottom to eventuate around November/December 2022, give or take a month or two either way. The only difference between previous BTC downswings and the current bear market is the global economic climate. Personally, I don't believe this will affect the initial timing of the bottom. I do however believe that this will impact the time in which we stay in the bottoming range. The possibility of an elongated bottom is very real.
2. Fundamental analysis - Let's look at the overall economic climate as this directly correlates to the markets. Interest rates are on the rise, inflation is out of control, and this is putting downwards pressure on the markets. Put simply, The US will be in a recession soon. What does this mean? For me, it means that we haven't seen the end to our market sell offs. There is still more room for correction. As long as interest rates rise, and inflation is out of control we will continue to see the US Dollar rise from current levels at 113 to 120, which will put downward pressure on all markets including BTC. Not to mention the flow of fresh capital into the markets will be at an all-time low as people are forced to battle everyday inflationary costs and increased interest rates on their loans.
Now I am not all doom and gloom. People read recession and think the markets are crashing to 0 and we will all be eating rationed tinned food for the next 5 years. Let's put this all into perspective. I actually think the Fed and other countries have increased their interest rates at such an accelerated rate that we are only in for another 2-3 rate hikes over the next couple of years. No matter the season we're in people tend to exaggerate the facts. When Rates are increasing at rates not seen for decades, people think it will never end. But it does end, and, in this case, I believe we will keep rates balanced heading into the middle of next year.
This tells me that our markets still have some headwinds over the next 6 or so months. Whether we free fall to our market bottoms and stay there for a prolonged period or whether we continue to free fall over the next 6 months remains to be seen.
3. Technical analysis - If we now turn to the charts, we can see that we remain in our green descending channel since BTC entered this bear market. We can also see that we are now at a decision point for BTC as we approach the upper green trend channel line. Do we break out of this trend, or will we continue our next leg down? Given the strength of the dollar and the state of stock and commodity markets worldwide I would be confident of another move lower within the green channel.
If we also turn to Elliot wave theory this backs our notion for continued downside. We have completed the first 4 of 5 waves to the downside. With the last wave due at any point in time, it would make sense for the next leg to complete our major bear market move since the November highs of 2021.
Now if we look at the current monthly candle structure (I know this chart is shown in weekly) we are close to the monthly close for Sep. The pivotal level at play here is the previous BTC high of just under 20k. If the current monthly candle closes below this level, expect a sharp decline to the 12k region.
Last but not least I want to touch on the BTC whales. Most prudent crypto investor/traders are aware of their continued control over the price of BTC... Well, more control than the major players of other markets. In the past a telling sign of the end of a BTC bear market was an increase in whale BTC wallets. We are still seeing a decline in whales' BTC wallets which for me is a sure sign of more downward pressure....
All of these factors of confluence are telling me that the bottom is not yet in. We still have a way to go.
The one positive for folks who believe BTC has bottomed, is that BTC has held relatively strong recently with the strength of the US Dollar, however this cannot continue forever.
The bottom is yet to be seen! Trading is not always about our skill and wisdom with the charts, it's a game of patience and mental strength to outlast the markets. Don't enter too early by catching a falling knife, that is what the markets want!
What does BTC think?Hello dear friends
Well, my friends, in response to my question, I shared my idea with you. I hope you find it useful.
some notes:
1. Today, I saw in many analyzes that we were talking about the reverse pattern of the head and shoulders. I had talked about it in the analysis two days ago. And now I think this model can not work due to the serious resistance of the price.
2- It is true that the bit has moved up a bit, but in daily time frames and even 12 hours, it is still the main downward trend.
3- According to the rules of counting in daily time, the price is in wave 4 of the recent downtrend, and in the market, usually and not always, we see 5-wave trends. So I am still waiting for wave 5.
4. A review of trading volume and fundamental indices still does not signal the beginning of a new strong trend.
5. The macroeconomic and political parameters governing the global economy are not in a position to help pump financial markets. The issue of US interest rates and Russian military tensions are two important issues.
In the end, this analysis would be invalid if the price could break the downtrend with a strong daily candlestick.
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BTC head and shoulders complete ???Hello dear friends
According to the rules of technical analysis, this is a strong possibility. This move could be the beginning of the third wave of a new uptrend.
But we know that not everything in the market is technical analysis. An examination of the information within the network shows that some whales are emptying their large wallets. And this is not good news to confirm what is technically shown. So we are very careful and try to manage the existing risks. And be prepared for both scenarios.
Remember that not always taking risks is the biggest risk because the result is definitely nothing.
******Appropriate entry points for supports and resistances according to the chart*******
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Is the BTC correction over ???Hello dear friends
Is the BTC correction over ???
If I want to answer this question honestly, I have to say no yet
In addition to the technical reasons presented in the chart, these cases also had an impact on my response
1.An examination of the data within the network shows that the big wallets not only did not take action against the main crawler in the last few days, but were also somewhat of a seller.
2.If we look at the current wave of downtrend, we find that the rise in prices in the last few days is most likely a correction of wave 4 of the current downtrend, so I expect wave 5 to start in a downward direction soon.
3.According to the correction wave rules, the recent price increase is in the form of a three-wave ABC, which reinforces the high probability.
4.The PRZ range marked by the intersection of the 200-day moving average + Fibo 0.618 + the valid dynamic trend line creates a high-pressure zone that can withstand severe downward price volatility.
5.The negative latent divergence shown in the chart can be very strong due to its location in the sales saturation zone.
******Appropriate entry points for supports and resistances according to the chart*******
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Thanks dear friends.
Be generous and rich.