FARM - CHAD COINSomething I would like to bring to your attention is the " Harvest Finance Project " Although might seem like a meme coin, with a large TVL, large team. It was able to survive all major dumps and as well hack attacks.
This coin did break down in the last dump and broke the Triangle down. However, now that the market is recovering, we can see good gain and seems like each time this coin drops below 70$ it eventually pumps hard to 200 plus. Well, I'm not saying it will drop again it is possible.
We now see another Moving Average "200" forming and it is holding/having a bounce off it.
What I can tell you right now is that FARM will be $400 and has all the reasons to hit the 1,000 dollar level.
I will post updates and reasoning for each TA I do.
Smogster...
FARM
Inflation Is Real and Commodities Are Showing ThisInflation fears are getting real yet there appears to be no sign of the money printing ending as a +3 trillion dollar budget agreement has been reached this week in the US, and the unbelievable rally in commodities since March of 2020 is a manifestation of this.
Its been higher higher after higher high and it appears to be attempting to put in another lower high after consecutive lower highs the last 16 months as well.
Should the upward sloping green trend line serve as support once more, look for a retest of the PDBC's all time high at roughly 2% from where we are currently to the upside.
If the ETF can find support above that level, a 10% move to the top of the channel could be instore.
If the trend breaks, look for support at $19.35. Ultimately, the bears would want to see this thing break out below $18.91 to confirm a bearish reversal of commodities.. a feat that appears to be a tall task given the current state of affairs with the macros.
LEND + YFI + CRV | Levels for DeFi Yield Farming Tokens 🌾🚜🐄💬 Any cross-section of DeFi will look good due to yield farmer FOMO. However, some serious projects like LENDUSDT, YFIUSDT, CRVUSDT look especially good to us from both a TA and FA standpoint.
Yield farmers can utilize LEND's AAVE platform to farm Curve's yCRV using YFI Vaults. Meanwhile, while Curve's current chart looks a bit like how do you say 💩, the underlying Curve technology is interesting, and thus at least some of those farming yields may want to be aware of support and resistance levels not only for LEND and YFI, but for Curve as well (even if only to maximize gains from yields).
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LENDUSDT
Support:
S1: The S/R Flip range is where the most bullish of bulls will hope to find support. There is no rule that says LEND needs to consolidate more or test lower support before running. This DeFi gem is hot and could keep moving.
S2: Sure S1 is nice, but for a healthy uptrend there is no better support for bulls than the S2 S/R and orderblock range. This range would offer just the right amount of consolidation and could even result in a move right off the trend line.
S3: A quick wick down to the S/R and orderblock cluster if S2 doesn't hold also makes sense. We lose bullish market structure below this, so look for S3 to save us if things get shakey.
YFIUSDT
Support:
S1: There is only one logical place to look for support for YFI, that is this orderblock cluster at the bottom of the consolidation range. Not like other support can't be found, but one doesn't want to see too much retracement after such a run.
Resistance:
R1: The S/R flip at the previous swing high is our first resistance point.
R2: If the bulls can take R1, then the orderblock range at the previous high is our last point of resistance before YFI's price starts putting BTC to shame.
CRVUSDT
Support:
S1: People are farming CRV and dumping it, striping VC Curve holders of their natural resource (value). That said, bears better hope the farmers can dump below the S1 orderblock range, because there is some solid support there and the more it is tested and holds, the more it looks like a potential bottom.
Resistance:
R1: Everyone is likely to take profits at the orderblock at the previous high, so watch for resistance here.
R2: A break above R1 means an uptrend could be in the works, it would be wise to look for a pullback at the S/R flip range here and consolidation on R1.
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Summary:
People are rushing into LEND and YFI to farm coins like CRV. As long as that gambit is playing out, we should see the current trends continue. Given that, we want to look for entries in LEND and YFI at support and cautiously dump our CRV crops at resistance. That said, Curve has some potential as an FA play, so it may be worth watching for how it reacts at support and resistance before fully dismissing it.
Resources:
defiprime.com
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COMP painting a nice Bullish Divergence COMP has been one of the few DeFi coins to really not have a nice run so far. Granted it started off insanely priced above $300, this nice divergence on the RSI is looking good and as long as BTC doesn't do anything crazy I think there is some good upside here.
USDJPY Possible Trade Opportunities. RetrenchmentOrContinuation? A strong U.S equities market and risk-friendly trading environment have helped push and breakout USD/JPY above a descending trend line on the 1-hour time frame. The pair were consolidated for a while London entered but then somehow the global positive risk sentiment news concern to coronavirus saying "China finding an effective drug to treat people with new coronavirus" pump the pair little higher but I guess there was some more hidden reason for price acting that manner earlier. Before the U.S. ADP report only a few hours away USD/JPY’s may have some possible retracement opportunity if today’s U.S. ADP report prints lower than market already weak expectations. We could see USD/JPY give up some of its gains and revisit 109.063 and this case should be considered to buy the rumors sell the news case. As we can see, the fib 38.2%
level lines up with the previous resistance level 109.063 which is a good take profit level for bearish bias traders if the ADP forecast ends up being the actual or even worst. If today’s ADP release prints better than expected, then we could see USD/JPY trade higher without a significant retracement and bullish momentum may not fade away which will lead to some more new fresh buyers in this major pair!
USD/JPY Stays Neutral and Waiting NFPNon-farm payrolls report will be released later today. At the same time next week Fed will meet regarding their monetary policy. A weak NFP report may raise the chances of a Fed rate cut in March, but we don’t think it’s going to influence the Fed at its next meeting on December 11.
Risk appetite is also wobbly, which means that a softer report could have a bigger impact on USD/JPY pair, one of the most sensitive pair to the market sentiment. If this is the case, the USD should keeps declining. The pair will meet supports at 108.00, 106.80, and 104.45.
Short-term pullback should continue to show opportunities for buying, as the 50-day SMA is now starting to cross above the 200-day SMA. We're looking for Buy position around 108.00 with the nearest TP target at 109.50. As long as 108.27/00 support area holds, rise from 104.45 remains mildly in favor to resume. The appreciating USD will push the pair to highs at 109.51 (upper line of daily BBs), 110.89, and 112.
And, of course, don't forget that the focus for USD/JPY traders will continue to be on the progress of U.S.-China trade talks. So, each Trump's tweet could bring volatility.
What do you think?
NFP Prewiew and EUR/USDUS Non-Farm Payrolls report will be the major focus today. Most of the economists are expecting US NFP to post reading in between 183-200K in November. In addition, they are forecasting the unemployment rate to remain between 3.5-3.6% for the month. Average hourly earnings growth is expected to pick up to 0.3% mom.
Still, there are signs that the jobs report could disappoint. Firstly, the ADP jobs data released on Wednesday showed that only 67K private payrolls were added. Secondly, the four-week average claims increased to 217K from 215K. Consumer confidence data from the Conference Board declined for 4th straight months while the employment component of the ISM manufacturing data continued to decline.
If job growth falls short of expectations and wage growth fails to improve like economists anticipated, USD/JPY could fall toward 108 and EUR/USD could extend its gains to 1.1150/80. You can looking also for bullish trades in NZD/USD, which recently saw a major breakout to 4-month highs and may have further to run from here.
In the event the jobs and the wage data beat expectations, then we would favor looking for short-term bullish trades in USD/JPY, which remains in a near-term uptrend.
Technically, EUR/USD is along the upper line of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart. The RSI indicator is slightly below the overbought level of 70. We’re looking for the market to get a little overbought on a short-term time frame and to start shorting again for a very small trade.
Until 1.1066 minor support is intact, further rise is still in favor. Corrective decline form 1.1179 could have completed at 1.0981. Rise from there would target a test on 1.1179 first. Break above that level will resume whole rally form 1.0879. However, a clear break of 1.1066 (daily 100 SMA) will turn bias back to the downside for testing 1.0981 instead.
You can share in the comments bellow what's your trading strategy for today.
EURUSD. Turning Up now. Perhaps, NFP tomorrow will take EU back up. Regardless, trade the breakout from 1hr. consolidation period (fast). Red box is just there to help define theoretical high/low period. It's your job to find the 1 hr. high/low period at the bottom.
Trading Criteria:
Regardless which way you want to trade, look for minimum five 4hr. candles in consolidation zones (yellow border boxes), or five daily candles for solid yellow boxes. If you're a pattern trader or pinbar trader, this might be useful here.
Wait for a significant breakout of the 4hr. consolidation or daily consolidation from red border boxes to take the trade. Red border boxes are the High/Low of a consolidation period inside the consolidation zone. I usually aim for 80% of the weekly ATR (or monthly ATR for yellow solid boxes) taking profit but not always at the next yellow box. I place my stop loss above/below red border box.
*These zones, with the inclusion of price action described above, have remarkable accuracy.
Yellow border box: weekly consolidation zone
Yellow solid box: monthly consolidation zone
Red border box: High/Low breakout box (5 minimum candles)
Grey solid box: monthly grid block
USDJPY Small Triangle on Upper Trendline of Large D1 WedgeA small neutral triangle has formed on the upper trendline of a much larger wedge that can be seen here on the D1 Chart:
If the smaller triangle breaks to the upside, the entire wedge might break with a large move in that direction. If the Upper trendline holds, look short to the bottom of the shape.
Lastly stay mindful of Non-Farm Payroll data that will be released on Friday at 12:30 UTC (Black vertical line on chart)
SECOND SCENARIO FOR USDJPYWAITING FOR THIS SCENARIO THAT EXPIRES MAY 3TH, SHORT AND MASSIVE BEARISH PRESSURE.
TODAY WE SAW A BIG PRESSURE TRYING TO GO DOWN, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE. DO NOT TRADE TILL SEE THESE 2 SCENARIOS.
IN THE LONG TERM ANYWAY USDJPY BULLISH, THE KID IS TRYING TO COMEBACK ABOVE 114.000
GOOD LUCK!!
How to know when stuff are rigged ? NFP, indices, gold price ...August 8, 2016
This is an abstract from my one of my blogs: www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com
Compare this chart with my previous publication and comments
So, from my experience, this is how it worked (and obviously I am merely stating a little portion of the big picture, but so far this "luckily" was enough to help predicting some moves based on correlation).
Last Friday's US Non-farm Payroll (NFP - August 5, 2016) was apparently rigged according to some sources. Well, we did not really need to know how the fundamental worked to know the blue print would be "good" and thereby certainly pushing prices up, as the odds for indices to head upward was higher than otherwise. Let me explain.
Do you remember the previous article I posted on July 31st, 2016? Yes, the one with the forecast of the CAC. So I was saying that a false breakout from the 4300-4450 range could occur (target: 4600). The CAC 40 did exactly range last week (August 1-5), going from about 4480 to as low as 4293 and now it is back to 4440 at the time I am writing this post. The trading range was perfectly supported by price action, supports / resistances, and so on. But moreover, if was also confirmed by the NFP's result, "fundamentally" pushing up on the CAC and making it soar from 4360 to 4410, therefore confirming the 4300-4450 range as previously stated in article 174 of the blog).
Now, the SP500 made a new all-time record, and the Dow Jones soared along with the NASDAQ. What I mean is that it was totally predictable, because no matter what European indices had to go up, technically speaking. So in order to push the markets higher, data had to be manipulated.On the other hand, I made a forecast 2 years ago on Gold (XAUUSD), stating it would go as low as 1080 and then going back to 1367 (see article 118 + related charts). Since gold price reached 1370, it had to pullback (ie. go down). Given that it is for the time being negatively correlated with stock market indices, then if the Dow Jones is up, gold price will decrease. And this is exactly what we wanted since the target of roughly 1350-1367 was reached !
Therefore, from solely using gold price forecast and European price forecast, we could infer that the NFP result would be good, and send American indices to the sky. This is in my sense manipulation, and the bubble will probably burst next year. My take is that indices will globally shift downward in 1 or 2 months.
CAC 40, Daily chart (see post from July 31st -> 2016-2018 forecast)
-> It exactly did start to range from 4300 to 4450 !
Gold vs Dollarwe have a minor and a major channel in daily.
if we break the minor channel ( break the red line ) heading upwards, we can buy till we head to the top of the major channel and watch for price action there, we will either break the major channel confirming medium term buy or we test the end of the channel one more time heading down.
or
we break the minor channel to the downside and inside of going up first, we go down to the end of the major channel before heading back up again.
remember that this pair is bullish so upside is in favour in general.