Bull Run nearing the end? Hedge with Bear ETFsAfter nearly a decade of growth in the stock market, many believe the "bubble" will soon pop. With trade wars between the US and China looming in the shadows, we may be seeing a reversal in the near future. This stock, FAZ, is a 3X inverse ETF of the financial index. At the height of the 2008 crisis, this stock hit highs of over $100,000 per share. As the market recovered, and the bulls gained momentum, FAZ steadily declined as it should. Now that we are looking at the possibility of a macro trend reversal, the wise choice would be to diversify into hedges that will protect your portfolio in the case of a collapse. The potential upside here is magnanimous. If we wait until the actual reversal takes place, the highest percentage gains will be already booked. It's highly unlikely that we will see significant loses in this ETF, given that we have reached an apparent bottom. The activity that i've seen, including the double-bottom bounce, leads me to believe that upside action in the near future is imminent. At only $11.13 per share, a small investment could create very impressive potential returns.
FAZ
The Financial SectorThe Financial Sector
The following ETFs are related to the Financial Sector. The ETFs track different sections of the financial sector as noted. There are many more ETFs in financial subsections for the USA and international equities. Included for each ETF are the symbol, the total Assets Under Management (AUM), the Number of Shares in circulation (Shares), the Average daily Trading Volume (Avg Volume) for the 3 months prior to 7/12/2017, the Expense Ratio, and the Bull//Bull type as well as the leverage ratio.
I have tried to copy these data carefully but cannot be held responsible for any mistakes made. These data are important because high volume ETFs are liquid which means you can get in and out quickly and there is a smaller spread between the bid and ask price. This affects the actual profitability of the entry and exits trades. The same considerations applies to put and call options. Use the highest volume ETF that you can.
The risk of the 2x and 3x Leveraged ETFs is that the 2x or 3x ration only applies to one trading day. After that, the ratio declines daily due to the rebalancing effect. NEVER hold 2x or 3x ETFs long term as they fall in value over time. For long shorts (in a non margin account or 401k), just buy the 1x Bear ETF. Unfortunately FAZZ is very low volume.
XLF AUM 25.2 Billion, Shares 1,006 M, Avg Volume 73.9 M, Expense Ratio 0.14%, 1x Bull
Broad sector exposure.
VFH AUM 6.0 Billion, Shares 94.7 M, Avg Volume 0.8 M, Expense Ratio 0.10%, 1x Bull
***Note VFH tracks the MSCI US Investable Market Financials 25/50 Index
IYF AUM 1.8 Billion, Shares 16.4 M, Avg Volume 377,765, Expense Ratio 0.44%, 1x Bull
***Note IYF tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index
UYG AUM 847 Million, Shares 8.0 Million, Avg Volume 46,208, Expense Ratio, 0.95%, 2x Bull Leveraged
***Note UYG tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index
FAS AUM 1.4 Billion, Shares 29.3 M, Avg Volume 2.7 M , Expense Ratio 1.05%, 3x Bull Leveraged
***Note FAS tracks the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index
FAZ AUM 197 Million, Shares 12 M, Avg Volume 1.7 M, Expense Ratio 1.1%, 3x Bear Leveraged
***Note FAZ tracks the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index
SKF AUM 43.7 Million, Shares 1.7 Million, Avg Volume 38,138, Expense Ratio, 0.95%, 2x Bull Leveraged
***Note UYG tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index
FINZ AUM 173.0 Million, Shares 0.1 Million, Avg Volume 1,766, Expense Ratio 0.95%, 3x Bear Leveraged
***Note UYG tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index
FINU AUM 27.1 Million, Shares 0.4 Million, Avg Volume 10,327, Expense Ratio, 0.95%, 3x Bull Leveraged
***Note UYG tracks the Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index
FAZZ AUM 1.7 Million, Shares 0.1 M, Avg Volume 310, Expense Ratio 0.58%, 1x Bear
***Note FAZ tracks the Financial Select Sector Index VERY LOW VOLUME
I put these here for your and my convenience so we can use the elf which fits our needs best. If you know of a higher volume 1x bear etc for this sector, let me know.
For premarket US traders, you can go to STOXXdotcom in the morning and look up symbol SX7P (STOXX® Europe 600 Banks) as a leading indicator of how US banks will be doing.
The financial sector is forming a a descending triangle.This is usually a bearish pattern. The big trade is to wait for a breakout to either side. A short position can be opened here with a stop loss above the descending line. I will open a long position in FAZ (3x Financial Bear) at the market open this AM.
Financials about to drop? The RSI-ROC I believe is even more sensitive to reversals and divergences than the RSI. When you get a negative reversal followed by a bearish divergence as we have now (and had in November) often a significant fall follows. The gap has not completely closed so there could still be a small bounce up to close it. Well see. Just the same it all looks bearish to me. Have a great and profitable week.
FAZ is tanking, safe opportunity to jump on the bandwagonI was long on FAZ... until the only possible support (which I drew in green) broke. RSI is now testing that green line, and will probably...
1) show uniformity (if you don't know what this is, check out my account info)
or
2) hit resistance than bounce below
either way, FAZ should be shorted.
Not to mention... the RSI is hitting the red trendline. I know the trendline has only been developing for about 2 months but since the price action is so well defined, it's safe to take the RSI signal. Remember, anytime you use an RSI trendline that is not that well developed, there's more risk, but also much more potential reward since less people have figured out this market insight.
FAZ finally showing support on daily RSIIn late 2015 the an RSI downtrend line was broken. Where it was broken is now considered support so I drew a horizontal support line at the support. After months, it has finally reached this support. Great buy, and stock will continue to bounce off this support in the future. This is the first bounce, I would get in this one opportunity because the first several bounces are the strongest since people have not yet detected this insight. If the trend line breaks, which the majority are suspecting, I would sell short, because that means the current down trend from early 2016 is dominating the higher degree up trend. I think a lot of people will be short squeezed by this support though. I would sell anywhere from 50 to 53.