FACEBOOK: FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS+PRICE ACTION & NEXT TARGET|LONG🔔Facebook beat Wall Street analysts' expectations in its second-quarter earnings report.
Revenue rose 56% year-over-year to $29.1 billion, beating analysts' forecasts, and earnings per share doubled from the quarter that suffered a lockdown a year ago to $3.61, beating the consensus forecast of $3.02.
Despite that strong performance, Facebook's stock price fell 4 percent as the company's growth lagged behind that of Google's parent company Alphabet, and the company said it expects earnings growth to slow significantly in the second half of the year.
But the second-quarter results weren't just indicative of the underlying numbers.
Facebook CFO Dave Wehner recently warned investors of an impending slowdown in the company's revenue growth in the second half of 2021. After reporting impressive growth in advertising revenue compared to the second quarter of last year, Wehner reminded investors that April and June of last year were very volatile times for marketers who cut back on advertising spending. As we enter the second half of the year, comparable periods from 2020 will be much more difficult, and revenue growth will slow.
That's why investors shouldn't be too concerned about Wehner's comments.
Looking back to 2020 and the first half of 2021, investors can get a better idea of where Facebook is headed.
In the second quarter of last year, Facebook's ad impressions were up 40%, while average ad prices were down 28%. Naturally, this presents a difficult comparison for ad impressions growth, but it's easy to use the previous year's numbers to compare ad prices. Indeed, Facebook's ad impressions grew only 6% in the second quarter, but ad prices jumped 47%.
Facebook | Fundamental Analysis
As you can see, ad prices remained relatively low during the second half of the year. While this is still better than the average decline in ad prices in the first and second quarters of 2020, the growth was not what investors are used to. At the same time, growth in ad impressions declined on the back of improved pricing.
In his forecast, Wehner virtually eliminated the variable of ad impression growth from the revenue growth equation. He said he believes that the rise in the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been particularly pronounced in the high-margin region of North America, poses a challenge to 2021's attraction growth. In addition, the growing shift from feeds to video products such as Stories, Reels, and Facebook Watch will lead to a decline in impressions.
Even if we exclude the growth in ad impressions from revenue growth projections, ad prices should still increase markedly in the second half of the year due to strong demand from marketers. One need only look at the revenue projections of Facebook's competitors to get an idea of demand in the third quarter. According to Twitter, the company expects revenue growth of 30% on average, and Snap, in turn, expects revenue growth of 58-60%.
Nevertheless, Facebook should be able to increase the number of ad impressions. First, the company continues to increase the number of daily active users by 7% and 12% on Facebook and the entire family of apps, respectively. Second, the company is increasing ad downloads in its video products, such as Reels, which account for a significant amount of engagement on Instagram. Reels is still in the very early stages of monetization, but it is growing rapidly. This factor, combined with the growth in users, makes modest growth in impressions possible.
With continued strong demand for digital advertising and modest growth in the number of impressions, FAANG share ad revenue should continue to grow at a pre-pandemic pace in the upper 20% range. Yes, this is a slowdown from the first half of the year, but it is still very strong growth for a company of this site like Facebook.
Facebook (FB)
$FB EASY EASY PLAY -AS posted last week this is following through
- This play is falling into position as we planned on taking an entry as soon as we broke 26-day and or the 9-day
-We are already above the 9-day ema so now we should watch how it starts to move on monday we can see a pullback down or we shall see a continuation
AS I PREDICTED BTC HASH RIBBONS BUY SIGNAL AUG 7THAs I correctly predicted - the BTC Hash Ribbons signal has come on August 7th.... this will mark a new bull phase for BTC and crypto as BTC is starting this blue circle buy cycle at nearly $45k ... we should see prices get well into the $100k territory.
This is a significant signal as the last 10 / 11 signals produced multi-100% gains even in bear markets. The only signal that didn't produce major gains was the one prior to the March 2020 corona dump - which would have gone on to produce a macro high had that black swan event not occurred.
Now there is no longer to wait and no more crazy consolidation period - it's over and BTC is fully back and has officially produced a low in this cycle to not be seen again.
You can see my previous publication on predicting the exact day of the Hash Ribbons signal - most other analysts probably told you this would come in another month... attention to detail is key.
Last time this happened, SOL moved higher by 116% in 16 days!The last time this happened in SOL - it moved higher by 116% in 16 days!
This matches with my fundamental value analysis and relative value analysis that SOL is at least mispriced by half and should be double the value it is today considering the 300+ dApps it has already rolled out and the WORLD CLASS dev team they boast - probably a top 3 dev team I've seen of all projects I've studied.... maybe even the best.
Anyways, the crypto market sentiment is nearly the same today as it was the last time the CC SMA 50 turned green in SOL and SOL moved 116% higher in 16 days.
There was a lot of doubt in the markets back in December 2020 and early January 2021 about whether Bitcoin would sustain a run above $20k. I think something similar will happen here as well. The senate in all likelihood looks like they will vote for the better of the two proposed amendments - the Toomey/Wyden/ Lumis version rather than the one that ironically favors PoW mining. Ironic b/c Washington DC has been telling the world for decades that they are here to save the environment and here they are positing an amendment in a bill that would favor PoW mining!
I know the virtue signaling will get to them as callers into their office will remind them today how the bill would favor high energy intensity protocols if passed. At any rate, it's clear to me that the Senate will in the end favor the bill that is agnostic as to picking winners and losers and this could set BTC off into a mini bull run, setting the stage for SOL's next 116% gain in 16 days.
A very wonderful merger b/w technicals and fundamentals.
SOL TP1 $48 TP2 $56 TP3 $100SOL has managed to stay well above its 200 DMA and the CC SMA 50 just turned green a few days ago - a signal that bullish momentum should continue.
SOL is building a wedge structure and should ultimately test the top in August and perhaps even break out by August/September to then head to the measured move target price of $100.
SOL has some strong fundamentals behind it and some very strong partnerships. Solana has several DEXes built on it such as the one by Sam BankmanFried's FTX and their partnership with Almeda Research - Serum on Solona:
solana.com
This isn't the only DEX built on SOL ... there are several others such as LunaDEX and DEXlab ....
lunadex.com
trade.dexlab.space
Solona to me is a blockchain backbone picks and shovel play but with the added element that it has smart contracts and is highly evolving such as Uniswap.
It has elements of Chainlink as well since it runs its own oracles. In short SOL seems like it's a very undervalued asset at this time of writing with several live DEXes and several use cases other than just DEXes - you can build any dApp on SOL with near limitless scaling at the moment.
In short, Solana is a quickly growing ecosystem.
solana.com
Lastly, SOL boasts one of the most impressive Developer teams I've seen to date - this includes it in the league of ChainLink and PolkaDot.
Their Devs are from Qualcomm, Intel, Google, MSFT, Twitter, Dropbox, and many more... it's honestly one of the most impressive I've seen to date...
SOL should be a top 10 coin or even top 5 coin depending on development and how many dApps continue to get built on it.
DOT: FB Diem PolkaDot Partnership EoY PT $420 - $500I'm actually very surprised this isn't talked about more but FB appears to be heavily lean on DOT's technology as they've partnered with Pontem to build out PolkaDot based applications for Diem. Her is some text taken from the Pontem website:
"Facebook-backed Diem is creating infrastructure for the financial inclusion of billions. Applications will be accessible to Facebook's 2.8 billion active users on its ecosystem of apps like WhatsApp or Instagram. The first use case will be single and multi currency stablecoins.
Pontem Network is a Substrate-based Move VM Proof of Stake bridge to the Diem Blockchain"
Pontem states they are launching in Q3 - this month or next! It's my opinion that Diem will launch much sooner than anticipated considering they moved their HQ from Switzerland to the US back in May likely b/c their legal team has regulatory clarity from Yellen. Diem is already registered with the Treasury and is why Yellen has been getting chirpy about stablecoins lately - b/c FB is probably pushing them to get Diem launched under the right regulatory structure.
See this for more context behind the Yellen - Diem connection: www.thestreet.com
Furthermore, Diem and PolkaDot branding is everywhere on Pontem's website (see images) and is finished with PolkaDot's purple theme. Also, the Web3 Foundation which is behind PolkaDot supports Pontem. This is important to note b/c this has signoff from FB's top Execs as well as PolkaDot's very own Gavin Wood. By deduction, Gavin and Zuckerberg have already met and at least put their minds together on this - or at least whoever Zuckerberg has appointed to run this endeavor.
The fact Diem is selecting a PolkaDot based substrate to test the most innovative ideas on the frontier of blockchain tech tells you how much conviction someone like FB has in the genius behind DOT (Gavin Wood). This is incredible and I know price isn't talked about much here but as a fundamental value investor - this is as close as to a Buffett crypto you can get considering the amount of vector onramping DOT will have almost instantaneously when Diem launches sometime in the next couple months.
As I stated above Pontem's first parathread is going to launch in Q3 - this doesn't leave much time for Diem to launch either as they will likely launch in parallel.
If you aren't excited for DOT's future after reading this - then I don't know what to say. There is no other crypto or project or company for that matter that has this level of adoption potential with a Total Addressable Market of 2.8 billion users on some of the world's most popular apps like WhatsApp and Instagram. DOT's future just got a lot more interesting and it's going to play out a lot sooner than you realize.
Link to Pontem's website: pontem.network
Elliott Wave View: Facebook (FB) Reacting Higher from Support ArShort Term Elliott Wave view in Facebook (FB) suggests the rally from July 20 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from July 20 low, wave (1) ended at 377.55 and dips in wave (2) ended at 347.73. Internal structure of wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave ((a)) ended at 366.93, wave ((b)) ended at 375.41, and wave ((c)) ended at 354. This completed wave W in higher degree. Rally in wave X ended at 373.28. The stock then resumed lower in wave Y. Down from wave X, wave ((w)) ended at 351.05, rally in wave ((x)) ended at 360.73, and wave ((y)) of Y ended at 347.73.
This completed wave (2) in higher degree at the blue box area. This area is the 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the wave W. From the blue box area, the stock has turned higher in wave (3). However, at this stage it still needs to break above wave (1) at 377.55 to rule out a larger double correction. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 360.48 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 356.90. Near term, as far as pivot at 347.73 low stays intact, expect the stock to continue higher.
Theta Thursday Triggers$NVDA 08/06 205c > 204.50
$TSLA 08/06 745c > 723
$W 08/06 310c > 256
$BABA 08/06 202.5c > 202.40
$SNOW 08/06 280c > 274.50
$FB 08/06 360c > 359.72
Best of Luck!
BTC Hash Ribbons Buy Signal by August 7thAt the current rate of speed of the delta b/w the two momentum numbers of the hash ribbons signal - we will have a Blue Circle buy signal on or around August 7th according to the latest run rate numbers.
Of course there are more than a few variables that go into this calculation. The current delta is 4.5 million and it's been decreasing on average by 1.5 million per day with a standard deviation of 350k.
This Blue Circle indicator has been the MOST reliable signal of oncoming new ATHs . 10 out of 11 Blue Circle buys produced new macro local highs and ALL ATHs of any previous bull market cycle including the current one we're in .
Buckle up boys as we're about to produce the 12th installment. 12 is considered a number of governmental perfection interestingly enough - the stated aim of Bitcoin ideologically - to create perfection without arbitrary and imperfect human involvement i.e. the actual optimal form of government.
AMZNI would go short under 3300. The 8/6 3250P can work.
I would consider going long over 3344. The 8/6 3400C can work.
EASY PLAY ON $FB!!! PLAY THE GAME -Here I will simply be playing the 26-day (red) bounce
-Price respected the 26-day and it bounced now this can hit PT.1 and bounce back to take profits accordingly
-My entry will be when price continues its trend in bouncing then I will hold until I hit my targets
DOT Bull Flag PT $21DOT is in a Bull Flag formation after a major surge higher and setting up nicely for a PT to $21... looking like continuation here.
DOT: First time 21 EMA has crossed above 34 EMA since May 19!This is super bullish for DOT... this is the first time the 21 EMA has crossed above the 34 EMA and is showing that funds and moneyflow is coming into DOT.... Next up will be the 21 crossing above the 55 EMA.
DOT has Officially Bottomed PT1 $21 PT2 $28 PT3 $38DOT has officially bottomed and is on a bullish trend towards the 200 Day SMA. You can see that the flag formation I drew a while ago has completed and I'm more confident the bottom of the entire wave 4 pullback in BTC is over.
DOT will head higher from here as the institutional interest is large and it already has smart contracts running on Shiden Network.
The first five parachains have launched on Kusama (DOT's sister network) and there is a fully functional DeFi platform via Karura ALREADY OUT and increasing TVL everyday!
apps.karura.network
I expect DOT to continue to release massive upgrades over the coming weeks and buying here is a massive discount to fair value.
It sounds crazy but the Schiff has DOT headed to $38 by mid-August - the target is the median line.
It could be that we begin to hear more bullish announcements related to Diem and how FB Diem is using DOT .... see here:
Pontem to Use Polkadot to Connect Diem and DeFi
If a bigger announcement comes out in the next couple weeks or if a new project milestone is met - expect DOT to head back to $50 by end of August.
Google Allows Crypto Ads on August 3rdThis is a change from their policy which banned it in March 2018. Starting on August 3rd, 2021 Google will allow exchanges and wallets to advertise crypto and crypto products.
This is a major turning point of the market imo - the number of people who will now casually see ads that never did before will be an order of magnitude higher.
Link to verify - straight from Google sources:
support.google.com(b)%20a%20federal%20or%20state%20chartered%20bank%20entity.
Facebook is unstoppable According to its quarterly report the company's Net income jumped 101% in the second quarter
The company posted revenue of $29.1 billion in the quarter – well above forecasts. However, the company warns of a significant slowdown in the growth rate of revenue in the second half.
The dramatic increase in Facebook revenue is particularly due to the change in the iPhone’s operating system, which came into effect in the middle of the quarter, which prevents apps from monitoring user activity in other apps, and makes it harder for Facebook to display ultra-targeted ads.
However, according to Facebook the impact of this change will be felt in the third quarter with greater intensity than in the second.
The company also warned that it expects a significant slowdown in revenue growth in the second half of 2021.
Facebook has also warned of continued headwinds as a result of regulatory changes and changes to the platform, particularly the iOS update.
NASDAQ:FB
Breakout to Upside Watch AlertRSI could break the downtrend line here like it did on July 25th for a 16% pump that lasted several hours. Watch for a 1H candle close above the downtrend line and a break of the ascending triangle pattern to the upside.
NFA / DYOR
