NVDATrade Idea: 197.5C 7/30. over 196.5
If tech sells off, puts can work under 194 using the 192.5p 7/30.
Facebook (FB)
BTC: Bullish Ascending Triangle High Probability Upside BreakoutThis Bullish Ascending Triangle has a much higher chance of breaking to upside now that we have discovered a necessary condition.
It sounds counter-intuitive but if a bullish ascending triangle has Bearish Divergence on RSI, it's much more likely to break to upside... we currently have Bearish Divergence on 1H and 2H
Considering the Fundamental news is particularly strong with Infrastructure just passing the Senate floor an hour ago and Powell sounding more dovish than usual.... we should see the $46k target soon
BTC Higher High on 4H chart into critical zone before $44kBTC just made a higher high on nearly every timeframe (30M, 1H, 2H, 4H, 6H) and has pierced an important level and closed a 4H candle above it - the $40,500 level.
This tells me we are heading higher after a brief pause and will slice through the resistance zone box where institutions & Market Makers previously had their "protected buy" areas set.
The fact a 4H candle was able to close above $40,500 says a whole lot. The Market Makes are wanting to take this much higher - likely to the first target of $44k where there will be heavy resistance from the ATH downtrend line.
From there we have to see how price reacts before we determine where BTC will go next but for now Market Makers are wanting to find liquidity and the path of least resistance to do that would be to slice through the $40-$42k area.
BTC Bullish Pennant and Bullish Engulfing Candle PT $46kBTC is currently in a Bullish Pennant and a breakout here would have an upside target of $46k if it breaks out to upside successfully.
There are some key catalysts atm as Powell is giving a speech that is largely dovish at this very moment and could help BTC break out to upside of this current formation.
We just closed a 1H Bullish Engulfing candle with high volume (confirmation of candle's continuation intent) as well.
DXY has been puking the entire time Powell has been speaking too.
BTC: Biden Announces Infra Bill Passed - Trillions in SpendingBiden just announced 5 mins ago that the Infrastructure Bill has bipartisan support and will pass a vote on House floor today. This means that trillions of capital have just been unlocked and this means the money has to be printed out of thin air - this is real velocity of money - expect the DXY to continue its trend lower and BTC to trend higher and likely test the $44k trendline before a retracement.
DXY - Immediately sells off when Biden announced that the infra bill has bipartisan support in Congress:
BTC Headed to $42-44k to touch Downtrend LineIt's clear that BTC is headed higher but how much higher? With the onset of all the signs on the wall that Powell will assuredly delay tapering bond purchases which were originally supposed to occur sometime in 1H 2022, the macro thematic picture couldn't get more bullish for BTC ... all the while the SP500 is headed to 4600 by year end and the inflation combo are helping to create major tailwinds for bitcoin. Additionally, I have an analysis on the bearish structure the DXY is in and how it's likely headed to the 2014 lows (Obama Era levels).
I only view inflation as a temporary issue from supply chain constraints but the other element in the picture is the fiscal and monetary policy. The US congress is about to push through a major multi-trillion dollar Infrastructure bill. Additionally, the debt ceiling will be lifted at the same time, and J Powell is about to get a lot more dovish with China's stock market in the midst of a major retracement.
Lastly, there is a LIVE bill (HR 4451) introduced by Congressman Emmer with bipartisan support from Soto and others which seeks to eliminate painpoints for crypot and blockchain technology from a regulatory perspective. The bill is called the Securities Clarity Act and it aims to stop calling crypto companies securities giving FULL clarity for investors and project devs to go full steam ahead.
You can read more about that bill which will be voted on in the next weeks once it is released from committee:
emmer.house.gov
FaceBook Diem - FB will be making headlines about their major stablecoin project - Diem - any day as Yellen pounds the table to get regulations in place before this event happens. It is my view that FB and the US Government have been coordinating which is why Yellen changed her tone from slight negative to slight positive on crypto. They want to have some guardrails in place before FB releases Diem b/c overnight at least 340 million people in the US will have access to a US digital dollar stablecoin through a social app. This is massively bullish as it shows the Fed / Treasury / SEC / CFTC are all onboard with allowing crypto thrive for the time being.
Elon Musk - Elon's B Word Conference appearance was more than just theatrics this time around. The guy confirmed he genuinely believes in crypto and put all haters to rest. He even shocked the world by announcing SpaceX owns BTC on its Balance Sheet - something no one expected. Additionally, Elon has much bigger plans for crypto imo likely involving SolarCity and decentralized mining with unused power from batteries. This is a longer-term vision but clearly Elon wants to be heavily involved in the space and wants to help develop decentralized money for the people.
Amazon - although the rumors about Amazon were denied by the company, it's unlikely they aren't true considering Amazon confirmed the rumor partially by saying they are exploring cryptocurrencies and bringing the newest tech to their customers. This is confirmed by the job board posting which isn't for a dev or lower level position but a Blockchain Executive - someone who will be in the Exec Suite of AWS... this is very big news b/c this single person will be responsible for steering AMZN into crypto and it will happen - just a matter of when not if.... I'd say chances are good by year end still.
Macro-thematic Reasons to be Bullish
J Powell delaying tapering bond purchases
SP500 headed to 4600 by year-end (supported by several Elliott Wave analyses)
Further weakening of DXY by year end
Inflation from Fiscal and dovish Monetary policy
Major Deficit spending by Congress with the Infrastructure Bill
US Congressmen sponsoring bipartisan bill to deem cryptos separate from securities so investors and developers have green light to innovate
FaceBook Diem to be announced in coming days after the sudden switch of HQs from Switzerland back to the US - hint that FB's legal team has regulatory clarity in the US
Elon Musk accepting BTC again for Tesla payments
Elon having wider plans for crypto than anyone imagined since SpaceX owns BTC on its balance sheet too
AMZN working on crypto payments
All of this combined BTC should trend higher over next few days to $44k and I expect there to be at least some resistance there and then we will retrace for another chance to buy in before a wave higher.
FBSimilar to MSFT, FB is hitting some resistance as we head into earnings. FB is going to be a big player in the metaverse and just like MSFT, I like FB for the long term
Improve your Technical Analysis using Fundamental Analysis!In this video I decided to show you how to use Fundamental Analysis along with Technical Analysis in order to improve your understanding about the market.
Although it is not common, as most people seem to like Tradingview for its price charts/indicators, you can use this platform for fundamental analysis as well . In this video I explain the importance of looking at the fundamentals through a chart.
I hope you'll like the video! In this case, remember to support this idea, and follow me for more content like this.
Have a good week.
Fundamental Indicators used in this video:
- Price to Earnings;
- Net Margin (%);
- Return on Invested Capital (ROIC).
BTC Making Moves to test $46k downtrend line & FB DiemBTC is making some major inroads to test the descending purple line near $46k in the coming days. Remember today is Sunday and that a lot of WSB traders who aren't active on weekends are going to wake up tomorrow and switch to buying bitcoin and crypto again... the two communities are highly aligned ideologically imo.
Also, the volume lately has been extremely low and a move like this was overdue as low volume eventually begets high volume and in a selloff of a wave 4 correction - this sort of movement is expected - there was also bullish divergence in this move down which is also a confirmation we're in wave 4 and heading into wave 5 (which may have started already)
Additionally, Yellen / Powell / CFTC / SEC are trying to come up with some regulatory guidelines by end of July and this is likely imo MOSTLY related to FaceBook Diem which has yet to announce their full plans.
Just a recap, Facebook moved Diem's HQ from Switzerland back to the US only a couple months ago. This was likely done b/c the FB legal team has regulatory clarity on future of crypto and future of stabelcoins - Diem's main product.
It is my opinion that Yellen is all of a sudden serious about getting something out b/c Diem is working with them and probably pushing to have something done sooner rather than later. This is NOT priced in at all. Once FB announces their intention for a global stablecoin that has signoff from the Fed and Treasury we're going to see a massive spike in interest in crypto from people who have not heard of it yet.
$60B of Tether awaits patiently!
WATCHING $FB for Entry Target @ 334.64 WATCHING $FB for Entry Target @ 334.64
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I will repost when it get’s closer (or if I take a position)if it goes that way and if it makes higher highs I’ll repost with new entry.
Pick your support level and let's go...
PINS - Momentum in social media sectorAlright traders, PINS reports earnings thursday 7/29. I really like the PINS setup because the RSI has more room to run on the daily and weekly charts. SNAP and TWTR both recorded good ER's, FB reports on wednesday. More time was spent on social media apps, due to Corona virus...pretty simple.
Options flow - There are over 6000 $85 calls sitting in OI, put/call ratio is at .86. There is alot more open interest in the August ATM calls.
The short interest is only 3.9%, finviz.com
*There is an FOMC decision on wednesday, so that may impact markets. Play the earnings run up and sell before earnings. GL!
FB - RSI Overbought on daily and weekly chartsHey Traders, I am leaning more neutral on FB for earnings as it has already made its expected move before earnings (6%). On Friday, July 23, 2021 there was some notable buying of 33,323 contracts of the $400.00 call expiring on Friday, July 30, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 5.8%, so 392 bullish or 348 bearish. Put call ratio for 7/30 is .67. An august 20 390/420 call credit spread ($4.25 credit received) would be a good ER play. Good luck!
What is the most likely scenario for Facebook?Scenario1:
Scenario 2:
Facebook lost its momentum made a Top swing, closing below its upward channel, and find support at 50EMA.
I think the most probable scenario will be a sideway until earing in 1 week.
Facebook stock price growth channel in action Targets in descripThe more the world absorbs: the Internet, the virtual universe, and the like, the higher the stock price of the companies that control social networks.
Today, we will analyze the share price of the Facebook corporation. It ranks as one of the Big Five tech companies along with Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, and Google.
Although the company has been since 2004, trading in FB shares began on May 18, 2012. The first day of trading closed at $38.23, just $0.23 above the IPO price . The minimum value of the share price was fixed on 08/04/2012 at $17.55 , which at the time was more than -50% lower than the fixed IPO price.
However, since then a growth trend has begun, which has been going on for almost 10 years.
Today, FB's share price is ten times the IPO price and 20 times more, the minimum price.
From 2014 to the current day, the price of Facebook shares has been moving in a beautiful channel upward, where the cyclical movement in the upper and lower parts of the channel is clearly traced.
In May 2019, Facebook founded Facebook Libra in order to develop its own stablecoin of the Libra cryptocurrency. However, the project collided with bureaucracy and US laws and disappeared from the horizon of public development.
At the moment, it is likely that the FB share price will be in the consolidation of $325-359 for some time. After fixing the price above $359 — a strong long to the upper targets of $435-455
Below $285 , it is better to abandon the long for a while, as the way will open for a fall to $ 218-220 . There will be the lower border of the growth channel, as well as a strong mirror level , which has repeatedly served as resistance and support in the past.
FB short 7/16 Facebook has broken out of the triangle and pushing down under support lvls.
333 Should be a great place to find a bounce off FB and make some quick profit..
If Facebook breaks under 330's we'd see a trip back down to 318.
Let's hope we can find a bounce on the mrkt and keep the forward momentum in favor of the bulls.. if not we're prepared to play both sides!
Bull thesis for FB based on technical setup - Bull Flag Support(Opinion Only)
FB tends to lead the QQQ so I use it for an idea on direction.
This was a nice chart refresh for it prior to earnings.
Next 2-6 important weeks for Facebook..!closing below the wedge will prone Facebook to a 5-10% correction. (minimalistic)
wait for confirmation!
Easy play on $FB$FB
-Back tracing $FB a couple weeks back we can see that FB is respecting the 9-day (blue line)
-Last trading day we closed right above the blue line so the trend is still valid
-Look for a big pump Monday now it's looking to continue this trend
-Playing the trend
Fb to $356.22?FB looks real nice to $356.22 once $351.39 breaks. nice pennant on the 15min timeframe.
