Facebook (FB)
Time to go against the grain of the general public with FacebookTime to go against the grain of the general public with Facebook #FB. I’ve been sharing my bullishness on Facebook and Metaverse on Twitter and through some of my videos. Many are focusing on Facebook through an advertising vehicle, but there is much more than what meets the eye. Just like the bullishness we shared on MSFT yesterday in trade alerts and recapping in our videos last night and this morning with the 282 targets - it was the evolution of Azure and the Mesh applications that we focused on. With Facebook, we carry the same principles of focusing on what many are not – expansion of services and areas least understood or passed to the side. I expect Facebook to expand on the Metaverse conversation and provide highlights into potential partnerships, service capabilities. Etc.
At the end of the day it matters how the markets react and not what the earning and call is all about. Nevertheless, I expect the markets to reward Facebook. There are significant comparisons of Facebook to Google and I believe that is a mistake by analysts.
In any case….
Bullish Target 1 is 216.93 to 219.92; Target 2 is 231.72 to 236.83
Bearish Target is 150.45 to 154.75
If the bottom is breached (bearish target) we would expect the price to close above 165.70 before the end of the week and back up towards 184.11.
Facebook $150 SupportFacebook has gap fill at $150 per share.
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FACEBOOK FORCAST - on the weekly chart : the price reaches a very strong support level
- on the daily chart : yestrday candle was green and today the price shows a slight rejection from underneath that could make a good wick and gives a buying opportunity
- personal opinion : we gonna have a perfect opportunity to entre as buyers due to that very strong support level that we saw previosly massive effects on the price
- best move : wait a little longer for the price to climb above the level and give us a confirmation candle
More than %50 in one month!A dramatic sharp increase is expected, recommended for mid-term, growing up to around 30-35.
What Next?They say it's gonna be a private company BUT here is how I foresee its future:
Twitter has a landmark position between $55 - $58. I don't think it can cross $58. It probably return downward at after $56, if it happens then it will be another "Beginning of an End"; But if it crosses $58 then congrats to whoever bought it!
#pessimistic .
p-value 0.0005The positive correlation between these 2 charts is so high to ignore in the post-pandemic era..!
Although predicting the outcome of earnings and market reaction to that is very hard, Meta (Facebook) could follow Netflix and disappoint the shareholders..!
From a statistical point of view P-value of 0.0005 in the past 529 trading days means, you are looking at the same chart..!
Education:
"A p-value is a statistical measurement used to validate a hypothesis against observed data. A p-value measures the probability of obtaining the observed results, assuming that the null hypothesis is true. The lower the p-value, the greater the statistical significance of the observed difference."(Investopedia)
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Will Facebook surprise investors?$FB has been battered and bruised in the past 6 months as its stock price almost halved. The company reports earnings next week and the stock just broke below the recent yearly lows. It is still one of the cheapest big tech stocks on the market. In case of favorable results and guidance a bounce to $210-220 is in play given how oversold this stock has been. If it does a move a la $NFLX, the next big support area is $135-40
FB Potential For Bullish Bounce | 21st April 2022Price is near to the key pivot level. We can see a potential for bullish bounce from buy entry level of 198.49 which lines up with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 212.11 which lines up with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Otherwise, price might break through key pivot structure and head towards the stop loss level of 190.42 which is a previous horizontal swing low support.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FB Potential For Bullish Bounce | 21st April 2022Price is near to the key pivot level. We can see a potential for bullish bounce from buy entry level of 198.49 which lines up with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 212.11 which lines up with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Otherwise, price might break through key pivot structure and head towards the stop loss level of 190.42 which is a previous horizontal swing low support.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
FACEBOOK UPDATE- one the daily chart : a catastrophic day , the price made a massive dive hits the stop loss after giving us good signal of buying
- personnal opinion : the massive red candle with a big volume could be a signs that the buyers from before took their profits and a new uptrend will start
- best move : dont do anthing until the outcume of the dive becme clear
How do earnings releases affect PA?Lately, we have been seeing some dramatic sell offs from earnings. NFLX earnings tanked the stock and they weren't all that bad. TSLA's most recent earnings caused just over a 100 point sell off and they were positive. TSLA and SNAP's earnings are coming up today/tomorrow and we see some sustained selling.
So this made me wonder, how do earnings really affect a large cap stock like FB and NFLX?
Thanks to the miracles of quant trading and being a statistics based trader, I can isolate my data based on earnings releases to see what actually happens to the stock upon earnings releases and run some tests to determine significance. I am doing this with FB.
Analysis:
Since FB's history, there have been a total of 117 earnings releases.
87 have been positive releases (74%); and
30 have been negative releases (26%).
What about price action?
Okay, before I give the results I have to briefly explain what I did here. I isolated earnings day to the day immediately before the earnings release, the day of the earnings release and the day immediately after earnings release. So, earnings releases constitute a 3 day period in the data, this is because I know as a trader that the day leading up to, the day of, and the day following tend to have some dramatic reactions in PA. So what I did was I subtracted the close price of these earnings days from the close price of the day immediately proceeding the earnings days.
As an example, if earnings were released on the 20th, then the 19th, 20th and 21st were all included as "earnings days" and their close price was subtracted from the 18th.
Okay, now on the to the results:
Of the positive earnings, the mean increase in price was 0.443. That means, on average, when there were positive results, FB closed an average of 0.44 cents higher on the earnings period.
Of the negative earnings, the average increase in price was -2.93 with a Standard Deviation of 17.25. Meaning the average price dropped by $2.93.
The chart below shows the degree of sell off by earning release date. Keep in mind, a NEGATIVE value means that the price INCREASED and a Positive value means that the price DROPPED:
Whether earnings were negative or positive correlated to whether it sold off were in fact statistically significant when analyized via paired sample T-test. However, these numbers may interest you:
Of the positive releases: 41% of the time there was actually a sell off and just over 58% had a marginal increase in price. The increase in price generally happened on the day AFTER the release.
Of the negative releases: 26% had a sell off and 73% did not have a sell off (This is interesting, right?).
Conclusion:
- Earnings do correlate to PA; however, these correlations are not predictable
- Negative earnings have resulted in a sell off 26% of the time
- Positive earnings have resulted in a sell off 41% of the time
That's it, leave your questions, comments and criticisms below!
Trade safe everyone!
FACEBOOK forcast .- on the weekly chart : the price hits a descent support level few weeks backs and bounced off it
- on the daily chart : a slight pullback took place but a very weak one .
- on the 15 min chart : yestrday ended as a green day after the price broke the VWAP upward . even tho it went under it again, att the end of the day , it closed on it
- personal opinion : the price will resume it climb with 75% chance of breaking breaks that level .
- best move : waiting for today's green candle to appear for confirmation on an end of the pullback and BUY
Feel free to cantact me if you want me to analyse something or keep an eye on a stock/forex/crypto... and gave you daily updates about
FB Potential For Bearish Momentum| 19th April 2022Price is abiding by the descending trendline. We see a potential bearish continuation from sell entry level of 213.22 which lines up with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level of 202.68 which is horizontal pullback support. Our bearish bias is further supported by ichimoku cloud indicator.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.