FCPO WEEK 45 2024: BULLISH.FCPO is bullish. However it starts to look heavy and overbought. Waiting for a retracement lower might be a good idea before committing. If the retracement holds and creates a support area then there is good probability that FCPO will move higher and possibly creating a new higher high above 5000.
Fcpo!
FCPO WEEK 43 2024: Bullish retracement.Price has been moving higher after penetrating the neckline of the rounded bottom. Price stays above the neckline for the passed 2 weeks and it should be the indication that momentum is building for a move higher. However expect that price will make a retracement lower to the support area. If this area holds then price should continue higher and possibly making a new higher high.
Happy trading week.
FCPO Week 37 2024: BULLISH.The 4-hour chart indicates a strong upward price movement. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has emerged, with the price breaking above the neckline, marking the first wave of the move. This was followed by a brief consolidation phase, representing the second wave. Now, the price appears ready to resume its upward momentum, potentially forming the third wave. Watch for a breakout as this wave could push prices higher. A buy position may be considered, with a target price of 4018 for potential profit.
FCPO. Aiming higher.
Continuing from our previous analysis (click above image), which alerted us to the probability of a bull trap, the price moved and created a false breakout, then traded back lower to the extreme low swing, thereby confirming the bull trap.
Currently, we observe an initial movement to the upside with strong momentum, suggesting that wave 4 may have reached its bottom.
Our focus is now shifting to the upside, and we expect to see a rally in a motive structure. The invalidation for this idea is set at 3849, where we consider this could be the end of wave 4. The downside movement is limited to this level for this idea.
FCPO. Currently within the range of a bull trap.We observed a price rally that surpassed the extreme swing high of Wave 3. However, at this point, we are only seeing a three-wave advance from the low of Wave 4. It is premature to conclude that Wave 4 has bottomed.
To manage our expectations and account for both scenarios, it remains possible that Wave 4 has not yet reached its bottom.
The alternate count (in purple) suggests the probability of a bull trap being in play.
FCPO. REJECTION AT 38.2%.Following the guidelines in Elliott Wave Theory, "The Right Look" we adjust our wave labeling because the proportion of wave 4 is too large to fit within the subwave structure.
It is a good sign that the price is rejecting decline at the Fibonacci 38.2% level.
Our focus now is on the development of Wave 5. The last wave to complete the Motive cycle.
Invalidation for this idea is at 3872.
Refering to Elliott Wave rules for Wave 5:
"Wave 5 always subdivides into an impulse or a diagonal"
We would expect rallies toward the 4000 area in a classic motive wave structure.
Another possible scenario to consider is the truncation of Wave 5, given that Wave 3 is an extended wave. Truncation happen when Wave 5 fail to move beyond the extreme swing high of Wave 3
Bottom line:
If Wave 4 has ended and Wave 5 is in the early stages of development, any retracement is limited to the 3872 level. Trading below this level will require reassessment of the wave structure.
FCPO. CORRECTIVE PHASEDTime-consuming sideways movement, tight ranges, and numerous overlaps are all characteristics of a corrective wave.
Sideways corrections often tend to retrace 38.2% of the previous impulse wave, particularly when they occur as wave 4. We wait here when the price reaches this level.
We will continue to detail the structure once we have a clear picture. For now, let’s sit back and rilex.
FCPO. HIGHER TO COMPLETE WAVE 3 CYCLEPrice reached 2.618 fibonacci relationship compare to wave 1.
Evaluation based on market structure, we see an extension wave 5 within wave (3) rally.
If wave (3) has ended at fibonacci 2.618 area, we expect to see a 3 wave decline for wave (4) correction.
Elliott Wave Theory:
GUIDELINE OF ALTERNATION WITHIN AN IMPLUSE
" If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. "
Looking at our price chart, Wave (2) already unfold into a flat pattern and flat pattern is a side way correction. We can expect to see a sharp correction pattern for Wave (4)
BEHAVIOR FOLLOWING FIFTH WAVE EXTENSIONS
" ..when the fifth wave of an advance is an extension, the ensuing correction will be sharp and find support at the level of the low of wave two of the extension. Sometimes the correction ends there and sometimes only wave A ends there... Additional value is provided by the fact that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by swift retracements. "
Projection area and pattern for wave (4) retracement using Elliott Wave Theory for alternation and fifth wave extension theory, expecting to see a sharp correction in wave (4) toward 3900-3880 area.
Bottom line:
Short term view, looking for significant retracement for a sign that wave (3) rally has ended.
Long term view, we are still aiming higher to complete wave 3 cycle on a larger degree.
Trading above yesterday high will required reassesment on the structure.
FCPO. I AM WRONG IN MY PREVIOUS WAVE COUNT.One of the five ways the wave principle improves trading, wave analysis provides a specific point of invalidation, which is the level at which an interpretation is no longer viable.
Knowing when you are wrong is perhaps a trader’s most important piece of information.
Market always right, it was my previous operative wave count is incorrect.
Adjusting to the current structure, wave 3 of 3 already reach 1.618 fibonacci relationship compare to wave 1.
Currently, there is no sign of significant retracement that telling wave 3 of 3 is complete. For now, we still aim high. Next reasonable target is 2.618 fibonacci level where wave 3 is an extended wave.
Let's see what the market will offer us for next week.
Accept failure but never give up, it is part of the process to become a consistently successful
trader!
FCPO. DOUBLE ZIGZAG FORMATION IDEAReassesment of the current wave structure after price break our invalidation level of our previous idea.
As for now, my personal best idea that can be derived from the current market structure is that maybe we area looking at double zigzag formation for november contract.
Invalidation for this idea = 3698
FCPO Week 31 2024: Waiting for break thorugh.Last week, prices moved within a narrow range between 3900 and 4000. Unless there is a significant move that breaks through this range, either higher or lower, the market will likely remain neutral. This week, pay special attention to this range, particularly the levels closer to 4000, as a breakout in this area could signal a strong market move.
FCPO Week 30 2024: Slight bullish potential.Last week, it was anticipated that the price would retrace higher before moving lower. However, this did not materialize. The 3900 to 4000 range remains a critical area, with the price continuing to move within this band. Currently, forecasting the outlook is challenging, but based on recent price reactions, the market appears to favor the bulls. Next week, we will be looking for opportunities to buy, anticipating that the price will move higher.
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FCPO Week 29 2024: Bearish in motion.Based on last week's price action, FCPO appears to be trending lower. Pay close attention to the price movements between 3955 and 4000. If bearish price action is observed within this range, it could present a good opportunity to enter a short position.
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FCPO Week 28 2024: Support retest and then higher.Last week, the price broke through the 4,000 resistance area and closed above it. However, it hasn't moved significantly higher and is currently consolidating. It's expected that the price might retest the 4,000 area before moving higher towards the 4,200 level. If the price drops significantly, the outlook could change, potentially reversing the trend. Given the short trading week, adopting a wait-and-see strategy to observe the next price action might be wise.
FCPO Week 27 2024: still in range. Neutral.There was a slight upward movement last week, likely due to the price reacting to the support area. However, strong resistance remains at the 4,000 level. The recent bounce from support might reach this resistance and result in continued consolidation. Range traders can benefit from this environment while it persists. Trend traders, on the other hand, may prefer to wait for a significant breakthrough above the resistance or below the support levels to confirm a new trend.
FCPO Week 26 2024: Indecision.Another week of consolidation for FCPO. The price remains range-bound, suggesting that without a decisive move higher or lower, FCPO is unlikely to make significant progress.
For range traders, consider going long at support levels and targeting resistance, or vice versa. For trend traders, it may be prudent to wait for clearer price action. A strong movement toward either support or resistance is necessary to establish a meaningful trend.
FCPO Week 25 2024: Still in consolidation.The price remains within its range, showing minimal movement last week. Despite expectations, it has not made any significant progress upward. The outlook suggests that the price could move higher, but it needs to close and sustain above the 4,000 level to see a substantial increase.
Based on the current consolidation, we observe that the price may have formed a rounded bottom, potentially creating a cup and handle pattern with higher highs (HH) and lower highs (LH). These are positive indicators for a bullish move, but momentum is still lacking. If it is indeed going higher then the 4135 is the immediate target.
If the price breaks below the LH area, it could move lower. The best approach for the upcoming week is to adopt a wait-and-see strategy, looking for confirmation of the next price movement.
FCPO Week 24 2024: Slowly higher.Earlier in the week, prices dipped below the neckline, but they recovered slightly by the week's end, closing just above the neckline. The 4000 price level remains a resistance area. Despite this setback, the bullish outlook is still intact, with prices continuing to consolidate. Next week presents an opportunity to go long, with the target price remaining unchanged from last week.
FCPO Week 23 2024: Bullish?The price broke through the neckline with strong momentum and retraced slightly on Thursday, creating a buying opportunity. It then continued higher on Friday, confirming a rounded bottom pattern. From here, the price is expected to continue rising. A long position targets 4135 initially, with a potential move to 4230 depending on next week's price action.
FCPO WEEK 21 2024 -Neutral for the start of the week.Price has been in consolidation mode for at least 2 weeks. Good trading weeks for range traders but definitely not good for trend traders. Will be looking for further price action early next week to further determine the direction. Price needs to close either above or lower of the resistance or support level. Overall view is still bearish based upon how aggressive the price push lower from the neckline. However a retracement higher towards the neckline is welcome for another meaningful move lower. It will also provide opportunity to go short with a much better pricing. So early next week is definitely a wait and see mode before deciding to take any trade. ✌🏼💰💵