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Fcpo!

FCPO WAVE 2 CORRECTION PROGRESSKey Level = 1940 From our previous analysis: “Expecting a 3-structure movement in corrective fashion to complete correction wave (ii) from my personal opinion, I would like to see the end of wave (ii) at the area of 2093 – 2026” Wave (ii) unfold into zig-zag pattern and we can see a clear 5-structure movement for wave C toward our target area. With the idea of diagonal triangle wave (5) to end wave C and (ii), there are still left some room for throw-over below 2100 area. Expecting a sharp movement toward 2217 if everything goes according to plan. Our key level is set at 1940, which is the starting point of wave 1 and as per Elliott rules “Wave 2 never retrace more than 100% of wave 1”. This wave analysis remains valid as long as our key level hold. Let’s see what the market will offer us this week. Happy Trading.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by pengiran-
4 MARCH 2019: FCPO Daily Chart AnalysisFCPO Daily Chart Key Level : 2344, 1940 Price rising from 1940 - 2344 in motive 5 wave structure add support to the idea of wave C of E in weekly chart triangle is completed (Scenario #1) Expecting a 3 structure movement in corrective fashion to complete correction wave (ii) from my personal opinion, i would like to see the end of wave (ii) at the area of 2093 - 2026 (Scenario #2) Most probably wave (ii) is already in place if price move upward and break above 2344 key level Lets see what the market will offer us today Happy trading
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by pengiran-
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Dec 12th 2018Recent bullish momentum was short lived after FCPO failed to break the 2055 - 2060 zone. As of now, FCPO seems to trade within a contracting triangle. Our primary projection of an expanded triangle looks bleak, but valid nonetheless. With no fundamental element to entice market to climb higher, the last bullish leg (wave c of (e)) of the expanding triangle is likely to develop under the pretext of contract roll over. It holds true, if and only if, FCPO is traded until the end of this week within the range, bound by the upper and lower lines of the converging triangle. That being said, it is essentially important to note that a symmetrical contracting triangle is a continuation pattern, so a strong bearish momentum can fully develop right off the bat. We will take a closer look at the following area as market unfolds. 1965 - 1970 #analysis #12Dec18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Nov 30th 2018An expanding triangle is anticipated. Price needs to travel beyond the 2078 price level to ascertain triangle formation. Wave c of (e) is likely to terminate between 2110 - 2125. Any strong violation of EW invalidation level @ 2137 could suggest the next major downtrend may be limited to a certain extent. Market is then expected to embark on another (probably final) journey further down south. With the burgeoning stockpile and lack of demand, it is interesting to see how market reacts at the weekly demand zone between 1863 - 1943. #analysis #30Nov18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO - Head and Shoulder BreakdownThe current forward curve in FCPO are trading at the steepest contango throughout the year. The sluggish front months is suggesting market having high inventory. The price have breakdown significant price level 2137, and this break down also confirm the head and shoulder formation which use 4 months to formed. The pattern projection is targeting 1970. If price is trading below 2137, next support at 2078, 2033 & chart pattern target 1970.
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by Johnkiew
FCPO - Surprising Survey DataThe strong demand in September month have potential to consume rising production. As suggested from yesterday survey data released by Bloomberg and CIMB. Surveys are expecting an unchange inventory for Sep month from Bloomberg and expecting slightly rised by CIMB. (See Below data) Meanwhile, market is waiting Reuters survey data and the first five days SPPOMA production for Oct. Yesterday price rally were largely reflecting the surprised survey data. The price found crucial support in 2137 as suggested earlier (see previous post for explanation). The current rebound still premature to justify as trend reversal but seen as price rebound. Refer to the right chart, rebound will seen major resistance at 2240. And shorter term time frame on right charts showing price rebound have reached projection price 2233 yesterday. With soyoil down 1.58% overnight and slightly lower oil price, FCPO has retraced from 2232 and reflect the sentiment. Trader please monitor price level 2233 to 2240 to indicate further direction. If price stay below this zone, FCPO remain in down trend. Otherwise, stronger rebound above 2240. Bloomberg Poll Sep vs Aug MPOB: Prodn 1.86m vs 1.62m (+15%) Impt 70k vs 80k Expt 1.65m vs 1.10m (+50%) LDsp 240k-330k Stks 2.49m vs 2.49m (unch) CIMB Poll: Prodn 1.858m (+15%) Impt 80k Expt 1.649m (+50%) LDsp 280k Stks 2.498m (+0.4%)
MYX:FCPO1!
by Johnkiew
FCPO - Eye on Export DataPalm oil had dropped almost 150 points in just two weeks time as concern on rising inventory. In fact, demand were surprisingly good during the first 15 days of September. The first 20 days export data is due on today. Trader please be cautious if the continue strong demand will trigger potential price rebound if market have overdone. Speculation of 3.3 m inventory by Dorab still uncertain with surprised demand. On the left chart showing a 2 months chart, the horizontal line in orange plot at 2013 Jul low 2137, If you look at the the entire chart, price did not trade lower than this for almost a decade except 2014 to 2015. As price near to this level, market is expect to be volatile. Meantime, In technical view, price may initiate rebound with nearing long term price zone 2137. Market is expect to open higher with Soyoil increased 1.36% from yesterday 6 pm closing of Bursa FCPO1!. And price have achieved 7 multiples of golden ratio at 2158 (see right chart) If rebound, resistance at 2175 to 2187. If open gap up, price may fill the gap and trend remain favorable to selling. If open gap up, price do not fill the gap fully, price factoring in potential strength for rebound. Stay tune for intraday updates in the same post.
MYX:FCPO1!
by Johnkiew
FCPO - Price at Major Support Zone 2202Rising production data providing pressure to price. Reader please look at the left chart, retracement level 2202 (61.8%) were good support for FCPO since beginning of August. Price rebound two times from this price level. When the time production increasing rising pace during September, demand was surprisingly good during September as well. The story on the right chart showing lower time frame projection, as price below 2213, will see 2158. Their room of battle within fundamentals and current price level. Trader please trade with cautious, export and production data are due on tomorrow. CPO Data Sept 2018 ITS Export Sept 1-5: 262, 020 vs. 169, 066 (+54.98% ) Sept 1-10: 489,492 vs. 300,326 (+63%) *Sept 1-15: 752,317 vs 424,487(+77.2%)* SPPOMA Production Sept 1-5: +24.15% Sept 1-10: +3.41% *Sept 1-15: +12.65%*
MYX:FCPO1!
by Johnkiew
FCPO: WAVE 3 IS COMING!Key Level: 2303 We can clearly see movement of price in a motive manner. Breaching 2 important level, 1) Correction Channel and 2) 2197 level, add support the idea that wave 4 has already topped at 2303. Breaking below 2197 has cancel the 5 structure uptrend movement for wave C of Y, hence limiting the movement to 3 structure wave = correction wave. 2303 serve and act as our key level/critical level for this analysis, should wave (iv) completed and wave (v) is unfold, price has no business to go above our key level. Expecting a rebound in price and follow by a strong movement of wave 3 to the downside. Wave 3 is coming!
MYX:FCPO1!Short
by pengiran-
FCPO - Expect open gap down before MPOB ReleaseMPOB data to released on today noon. The survey data expecting rise in inventory. (See below survey data) The long holiday in Malaysia have not priced in 1.3% drop in soybean oil (BO1!), market is expecting to open down later. Price below 2262 suggesting price move in correction. FCPO formed a double top formation with target at 2255. FCPO support between 2263 2237 (see right chart) Bloomberg Poll Aug vs Jul MPOB: Prodn 1.65m vs +1.50m (+10%) Expt 1.24m vs 1.21m (+2.5%) Stks 2.41m vs 2.21m (+9%) Reuters Poll: Prodn 1.65m (+9.88%) Impt 50k Expt 1.23m (+2.25%) LDsp 270k Stks 2.41m (+8.96%) CIMB Poll: Prodn 1.681m (+11.8%) Impt 44k Expt 1.236m (+2.5%) LDsp 239k Stks 2.464m (+11.3%)
MYX:FCPO1!
by Johnkiew
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 7th 2018fcpoLast friday, market failed to seal off completely the 10-tick gap down that was formed early in the session. In fact, it was finally closed @ 2264; suggesting the confluence area between 2250 and 2260 may already have weakened. With the current situation, the correction phase may already have peaked at 2203. To reflect with the current development, we have downgraded any bullish attempt of wave (5) of © of (e) of (4) into an alternate count. Our new primary projection is based on i) the new resistance area (pinbar) that was recently created around 2277 to 2286. ii) the extreme confluence area (2300 - 2310) that was tested twice (barely though) Primary count #1 Price may respond to the confluence area (2235 - 2242) before resuming to move downwards. Primary count #2 Price will quickly trade lower; breaking the lower channel line as well as violating the EW invalidation line (alternate count). Alternate count We cannot rule out completely a renewed bullish attempt unless the lower channel line is broken or the EW invalidation level @ 2238 is violated. In fact, the alternate count is quick to materialize if FCPO is opened above the confluence area (2275 - 2286) through a gap up (either morning or evening session). P.S MPOB report is expected to be released this afternoon We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #12Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO - Sideway before MPOB Data ReleaseImpulsive swing target 2337 remain in FCPO price projection as long as price above 2262. The latest MPOB Aug survey data suggesting increase in inventory with CIMB released the most bearish survey data. As long holiday ahead, and MPOB data to release at 12 Sep after holiday. The market is expect to be trading sideway. Bloomberg Poll Aug vs Jul MPOB: Prodn 1.65m vs +1.50m (+10%) Expt 1.24m vs 1.21m (+2.5%) Stks 2.41m vs 2.21m (+9%) Reuters Poll: Prodn 1.65m (+9.88%) Impt 50k Expt 1.23m (+2.25%) LDsp 270k Stks 2.41m (+8.96%) CIMB Poll: Prodn 1.681m (+11.8%) Impt 44k Expt 1.236m (+2.5%) LDsp 239k Stks 2.464m (+11.3%)
MYX:FCPO1!
by Johnkiew
1
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 7th 2018We are currently looking at the development of wave c of (4) of (c). Under further scrutiny (TF 15), the 5-wave structure is hardly seen (it hasn't fully developed). Depending on how it unfolds today, the correction wave may terminate around 2265 – 2272 or around 2250 – 2260 area before it starts to rally again. Apparently, wave (3) of (c) is an extended one as it terminated @ 2.618 extension. With that in mind, we assume wave (5) of (c) has an equal length of wave (1) of (c). Based on the analysis, FCPO may gain bullish momentum again but the rally will be limited by the confluence area (2300 – 2310). At the end of the day, we will see either a truncation or a small overshoot of wave (5) of (c). Upside limit As we can see, the upper channel line that governs the extreme high of wave (4) has been diverging from both confluence area (2300 – 2310) and the invalidation level (2324). If FCPO is able to touch the upper channel line or the invalidation level is violated, it may suggest that the next major downtrend will be limited to a certain extent. We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #07Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 5th 2018Yesterday, FCPO has effortlessly bypassed the 2260 & 2265 key levels as well as the confluence area (2265 – 2278) through a 15-tick gap up. Market then edged up steadily throughout the day towards the psychological level @ 2300. Hourly EW Count Structure wise, the strong momentum from 2214 to 2301 is a clear manifestation of wave 3. We should see some retracement of wave 4 after touching the 2300 price level before it struggles to move back up again as a wave 5 (it can be in the form of compression or a complete truncation). Wave (4) is expected to terminate around 2300 – 2310 with extreme high is governed by the upper channel line. Highlights It is worth to note that FCPO has now reached the extreme high area of wave (4). The following are the things that we should be aware of. 1. EW invalidation level (daily/weekly) @ 2324 2. Weekly chart clearly shows that market is moving in a corrective fashion (within deceleration channel) and has now touched the base channel. 3. Confluence area between 2300 – 2308 5. Dynamic EW upper channel line (today’s highest point on hourly chart would be 2320) This is the last bastion for the downtrend. If market is able to bulldoze this extreme area and strongly violate EW invalidation level @ 2324, a recount will be required. We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #05Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Sep 3rd 2018Overall, FCPO has almost reached the end of wave © of (e) (4) ( primary count ) or the end of wave © of (ii) of (5) ( alternate count ). Market can now, at any time, slide all the way down to find new low assuming no complex correction or no truncation along the way. That being said, we still reserve our opinion that FCPO may have not peaked just yet. From EW point of view, wave © of (e) of (4) or wave © of (ii) of (5) should develop into a 5-subwave structure. Apparently, it is a 3-subwave structure for the time being. Primary Count (black) Triangle correction - Wave © of (e) of (4) terminates around 2268 - 2275 Alternate Count (green) Running flat correction - Wave © of (ii) of (5) terminates between 2250 - 2265 Upside limit Extreme high of wave (4) is capped at a confluence area between 2300 – 2310 and is always governed by the dynamic upper channel. Any strong movement above this area will require a recount. Even though it is fundamentally and technically a far-fetched idea at the moment, we reiterate this for the umpteenth times to make sure we cover all bases. We will see what market offers us this monday. #analysis #03Sep18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Aug 29th 2018FCPO hinted that it is ready to dive in after the lower channel was briefly broken on Monday evening. We hope, though, to see it is closed below the harmonic key level @ 2192 to reaffirm its bearish posture. To reflect the current development, alternate count (green) is included. Primary count (black) Our view remains the same; a new high around 2265 - 2278 is still possible in order to complete wave (e) of (4). Alternate count (green) Wave (ii) of (5) is likely to further develop into a flat correction but is restricted to a regular flat as the upper limit of the flat correction will be capped by 2265 (EW invalidation). Bear in mind, throughout the previous session, FCPO did not manage to close above the harmonic key level @ 2235. It may signifies that the bull run will be short lived and it may continue its journey to the next demand zone (2164 - 2180). We will see what market offers us today. #analysis #29Aug18
MYX:FCPO1!
by eches