Short FCPO Nov21 as broken the trend line of 15 mins15 mins trendline broken in last 15 mins on 11th October
Fcpo
FCPO 11 Oct 2021 : Re entry EMA14Today BMD increased the min margin to RM7000 due to the high volatility of the market.
Trading plan today :
1. Setup: EMA14>EMA50 @15min TF
2. Signal: Price retest EMA14 @15min TF
3. Confirmation : Bullish Engulfing @ 5min TF
4. Entry: Since bullish engulfing body CS below 10tick, enter by market order.
5. Exit SL : 10tick below retest CS
6. TP: nearest resistance/ when bear CS @15min appear..
TAYOR
FCPO: Discretionary Trade- Did a discretionary trade based on SO bar at 15:49.
- Price broke the 200MA and the 20/40MA is closing.
- At 16:03, Green Pentagon appears with price on Upbar. Exit the trade on the next bar with a small profit.
FCPO 8 Oct 2021 : Bearish Pennant?1. Yesterday have bullish pennant formation.
2. Today morning open price hit TP with 1:1 for pennant formation
3. Bearish momentum strong
4. Possible formation of bearish pennant as long as not break the bearish engulfing pattern.
Target TP is 120point.
FCPO chart still "working" after >1 year from last post. 8/10/21FCPO price almost reaching wave (3)(Cyan/Light Blue) at around 5300 .. price may have deep correction soon before final leg up wave (5)(Cyan/light blue)
FCPO 7 Oct 2021 : Breakout support & possible retracementSetup :
1. Valid Breakout temporary support for consolidation area.
2. EMA14 cross EMA50 for 5min TF
3. Price crosses below EMA14 for 15min TF.
Signal :
1. Morning star pattern / Bearish Engulfing pattern.
Trading FEPO vs FCPOKey to take away for Future East Palm Oil (FEPO)
1. Port of delivery location :
i)Lahad Datu
ii)Sandakan
iii)Bintulu
Port Location advantage?
i) Closer to China which is the largest export for CPO. Less shipping cost for oil collection.
ii) Closer to Japan/Korea/Philipines/Vietnam
2. Trading hour : 9.00am~12.30pm and 2.30pm~6.00pm.
Why start 9am? To cover the client from Dalian Commodity Exchange (China)
3. Export Palm related products from 2013-2020 surpassed Peninsular Malaysia.
4. Monthly CPO spread price on average for East Malaysia is at discount to Peninsular price by RM46.40/MT. Buyers will be always looking at a lower price.
5. Ongoing Trans-Borneo highway help to sustain CPO growth.
6. Expansion of Palm Oil (PO) area. Convert from logged-over forest and cocoa plantations.
7. High productivity due to mainly Sabah mineral soils and adequeate & even rainfall distribution.
Key challenges facing CPO producers at East Malaysia
1. Declining CPO yields.
i) Sabah: labor shortage, old trees, diseases, and weather issues.
ii) Sarawak: labor shortage, land dispute, land suitability, old trees, and weather issues.
Any effect to FCPO?
1. FEPO Position limit still lower than FCPO.. might reduce FCPO volume, but still sustainable.
2. FEPO volume mainly will coming from Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Can i trade FEPO?
1. Yes. but since the volume still low, technical analysis will be difficult.
Market sentiment will mainly depend on the fundamental analysis to understand supply and demand.
2. Use Gann technical analysis is possible
Palm oil futures headed higherMYX:FCPO1! is looking really buoyant, expecting further upside for this commodity targeting the 127.20 fibonacci area soon.
Upside potential on this.
FCPO 6 Oct 2021 : Retracement or Continuation?1. FCPO ATH might be due to multiple factors such as manpower shortage and rainy season. Supply is not enough, demand still consistent and drives the price to go higher and higher.
2. Price almost reaches 161.8% fibo extensions.
3. PnF target is around 5113 still further ahead.
4. Price reject Gann level 4831 multiple times
Condition :
1. If price close below EMA50@5min / EMA14@ 15min possible retracement.
2. If the price closes above Gann level 4866, possible price go higher.
FCPO - Waiting For Bullish SignalThe trend is there.
We need to wait the Correction completes.
Good luck.
FCPO : How to maximize profit during trending market?How do normal intraday traders determine Target profit?
1. Using Win/Loss ratio?
2. Fix Certain points per day only.
Using this method usually limits our profit during a strong market trend.
Another way to maximize profit during market trending by rank is :
1. Wait until 15min have reversal CS.
2. Understand FCPO daily price range (Normal Trending: 120~140point; Sideway: 60~80points)
3. Fibo extension.
4. Gann level.
FCPO 4 Oct 2021 : Towards Wave 51. Last week price break ATH.
2. Forming wave pattern and retrace at fibo 50%.
3. Pullback and rejected at anticipated reversal level.
4. Price break downtrend line.
Watch for the rejection at the resistance area. Possible false breakout or rejection for downtrend.
FCPO TRADING : 302)into the abyss....no man landthis is haidojo and the number is 302 ...
Today is 1st Oct 2021 and fcpo-dec21 is the active month. After a long awaiting of consolidation since July this year, fcpo price finally made a move which breaks into a new structure high yesterday, 4598 high and closed at this all-time high. Yes, that is correct. You are witnessing a history being made right now. This price and level has never been reached before, therefore I named it as the "no man land".
As the excitement grows, so does the danger which lurks behind the high price, as I am watching it right now, it opens at slightly lower level, 4550++...but still very close to the highs. The closest support I am observing is 4525, the previous highest close ever in mid-aug this year. As long as the price doesn't break lower than the support of 4320-4374, then it is still considered as uptrend...
Another move we need to take note is, as yesterday, the last day in Sept, fcpo-dec21 opened with a gap-up of nearly 90pts++(closed on 29th Sept at 4451 and opened at 4544). A gap could mean a continuous of the trend and also could mean an exhaustion gap, depending on what will happen next. Watch out for Double-Top formation or any kind of gap-down-go-down scenario in this week. That could becomes some kinda "head" formation and indicates a possible reversal...IF none of these happen, uptrend prevails...bull still has strong grip.
IF you are frm Malaysia, stay safe. juz go to work, buy groceries and go home. Get vaccinated.
*plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck*
resistance : 4600 -???
immediate support : 4525-4560
critical support : 4320-4374 (bull is valid till here)
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD… any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… trade at your own risk!
FCPO Possible Towards RM5113 by Wyckoff1. Re-accumulation phase seems completed with price break ATH.
2. Next phase is the mark-up phase.
3. PnF target TP is around 5113.
4. Fibo Extension 1.0 and 1.618 are nearest TP.
Watch for the upper channel. The price might be stopped and fall down again.
FCPO 30 Sept 2021 : Break ATH or reversal?1. Based on analysts, the current price is not sustainable
2. Price almost reaches ATH before decide to break higher or lower.
3. Price consolidation for a couple of months can be reaccumulation or distribution. But based on previous spring formation and LPS indicate strong buyer.
Strategy:
For Buy..Wait for the price pullback to 4480~4490 range..Why?
1. Possible resistance become support
2. Gann level at 4490
3. Possible reject EMA14 for 15min TF
4. Minor up trendline for support
5. Fibo retracement level 38.2
For Sell : Wait for false breakout ATH
FCPO 24 Sept 2021 : Expected consolidation1. Price have a large upward movement since the spring formation.
2. Expected price consolidate to establish LPS (last point of support)
3. Price expected to move within the 3 Gann level (70~80 tick)
4. Reach significant resistance.
KMLOONG Expect to break trendline1. Uptrend market structure with completed Elliot wave 1~5.
2. Price reject EMA100
3. Fibo retracement 38.2
4. Next week earning report might boost the volume.
FCPO 23 Sept 2021 : Trade Bearish Harami1. Price at Resistance level
2. Price at the Downtrend line.
3. Price reaches max daily range.
4. 15min Bearish Harami / Inside bar
5. 5min Evening star pattern.
Might be shorter trade.
FCPO 22 Sept 2021 : Trade Shooting Star1. Yesterday have a false breakout and price consolidation for a while. As usual, the false breakout will produce a higher magnitude of movement.
2. Today price breaks 2 resistance levels.
3. Now price rejects resistance level + Gann level with shooting star CS @ 5min TF.
4. 15min TF has a spinning top black CS pattern.
5. Since the trend now is bullish, selling is only for intermediate conditions. Depend on how the price reacts to EMA14+EMA50 at 15min TF.
Other concern :
1. China Evergande issue might contribution a significant effect on the world economy.
2. China is our 2nd largest Palm oil export destination behind India.
3. Remember when Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.
FCPO 21 Sept 2021 : Trade False Breakout1. Yesterday's price has a large downside movement up to 200tick.
2. Yesterday's price close with bearish CS.
3. Today price open below the 1st support area and the price closes back inside the range close the gap.
4. False breakout trade still valid as long as the price trade above the support area.
As an intraday trader, monitor any rejection at 15min TF.
"Trade at your own risk"
FCPO Wyckoff Re-accumulation : Spring Formation1. Price consolidation starting July 2021.
2. Automatic Rally (AR) with a large price drop to establish the support.
3. FCPO created ATH shows Sign of Strenght
4. Multiple Formation of Secondary Test (ST) with significant supply volume.
5. Noticed formation of the uptrend channel.
6. On 20 Sept 2021, the price drop significantly and close above the AR/support area with moderate volume. This is a good sign for bull.
7. Price will break the resistance to continue higher.
FCPO New Contract Outlook1. So far price has respected the uptrend channel.
2. Dec2021 contract open followed by bearish momentum after the false breakout on 15 Sept.
3. Price almost reaches the bottom channel offering long opportunities.
Strategy :
1. BUY if there is reversal CS (doji, hammer, engulfing or morning star)
2. SELL if the price has a valid breakout of the support and the bottom channel. Wait after pullback for entry.
FCPO 17 Sept 2021 : Fake Breakout1. Nov2021 contract
2. Fake breakout formation
3. As usual, the fake breakout will follow by the largest movement.
