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FCPO / Crude Palm Oil CPO 18 April 2025 Daily Chart Analysis Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low with a long tail below. In our previous report, we said the bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area. The market traded above the prior day's high (16 April) but the follow-through buying was limited. The market then reversed to close near its low. Currently, in the night session, the market gapped up and is an inside bull bar with a prominent tail above. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a lower low major trend reversal. While the market traded higher today (April 17), the bulls couldn't create sustained follow-through buying. They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high. They hope tomorrow (Friday) will close as a strong bull bar so the weekly candlestick will have a long tail below and close above the middle of its range. The bears want a retest of the January low. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. They see the current move forming a double top bear flag (April 15 and April 17). They want a strong retest of the April 16 low, followed by a strong breakout below. They want a big bear bar closing near its low tomorrow (Friday) so that the weekly candlestick will be a strong bear bar. If this is the case, the odds of the market trading at least a little lower the following week will increase. Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. However, the bulls attempted to create reversals in the last 2 days but both times had limited follow-through buying, with the market reversing to close lower. The bulls are not yet strong. The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9). The market formed a tight trading range in the last 3-4 days (small yellow box). The market is in breakout mode. Traders will wait for a breakout from either direction and trade in the direction of the breakout. Until then, traders may continue to Buy Low and Sell High (between 4000 and 4080). The U.S. market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. For now, traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar breaking below the April 16 low. Or will the market trade sideways followed by a retest and breakout above the 4080 level instead?
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
FCPO - Crude Palm Oil 17/4/2025 Daily Chart Market Analysis Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar in its lower half with a small tail below. We said that the recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. Perhaps we may see a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area? The market attempted to reverse higher but sold off in the last 30 minutes. Currently, the candlestick is a small bull inside doji. The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 16) and a small double bottom (Apr 9 and Apr 16) They see the current move simply as a retest of the April 9 low and want a reversal from a lower low major trend reversal. They see the last 3 trading days forming a micro wedge (Apr 14, Apr 15, and Apr 16). They must create strong bull bars with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a TBTL (Ten Bars, Two Legs) pullback. They want a retest of the 20-day EMA or the April 10 high. The bears want a retest of the January low. They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low. If the market trades higher, they want the April 10 high or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance, followed by a reversal from a double-top bear flag. Exports for the first 15 days are up ITS: 16.95%, AmSpec: 13.55%. Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet. Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market. The market remains Always In Short. The recent selling has been climactic and slightly oversold. The move down since April 10 has a lot of overlapping candlestick. (see the 4 hr chart below). While the tight bear channel means persistent selling, the overlapping candlesticks indicate a weaker down phase than the first leg down (April 2 to April 9). The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a minor pullback towards the 20-day EMA or April 10 high area. So far, they have not yet been able to do so. If the bears get a strong breakout below the April 9 low with strong follow-through selling instead, the odds of a retest of the 3850-3900 area will increase. Let's monitor the buying/selling pressure tomorrow. Possible resistance area to pay attention: around the 4040-50 to 4070 area.
MYX:FCPO1!
by Tech_Trader88
FCPO WEEK 16 2025: 50-50 price action.There is an argument for bullish price next week. However as it stands now the price is still in the 50-50 price action. There is not enough argument to confirm bullish movement. Meaning there is possibility also that it might go south next week. Scenario 1: If price stays above the 4000 and push higher then it will be bullish. Possibly towards 4500. Scenario 2: If price move below and stays below 4000 then bearish is back in control to push price possibility towards 3700. Start of the week it will be reactive mode.
MYX:FCPO1!
by edramlan
1
FCPO Week 11 2025: Bullish likely to continue.Price move higher as expected. It is now at resistance level. Scenario 1: Price break through and close above 4638 - Price will likely going forward to TP2. Scenario 2: Price help up at resistance and make retracement towards 4560 to 4550 area. If the area holds then it will continue higher towards TP1 and eventually TP2. This is the best scenario since price will have strong based to go higher. Scenario 3: Price breakthrough and close below support then price will likely targeting area below 4500 and even lower towards 4400. Let's see the opening on Monday. Happy trading.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by edramlan
3
FCPO Week 10 2025: Still 50-50.There is a hint that the price might continue higher. 4480 to 4470 is a support area and it seems to be holding right now. However in order to continue higher price needs to overcome the current resistance area which is around 4560. Closing above the resistance will open the door to 4630 level. That is scenario 1. For scenario 2, if price close below 4470 level then it most probably going lower initially to 4400 level and possibly lower towards 4350. For now it is still wait and see condition. Good luck!
MYX:FCPO1!
by edramlan
2
23) FCPO : Bear is making its call, but possible reversal...?update frm 20), Fcpo-May were in bearish last week but price frm 4500 is still holding. At least, it is still holding at 4490 and what so special about the end of the week was, formation of Double-Bottom which seemed more like a "Higher-Low" was formed. Price was able to rebound frm low and was tapped out at 1560 resistance. Fcpo-May needs to break above 4576, the previous lower-high (blue-line), to confirm a possible shift-of-trend. Higher resistance is at 4622-4634 and 4700. -IF the bear pulls back the price, THEN market will find some support at 4528-4490. -IF price is below 4490-4500, THEN lower support is at pretty far at 4400, 4300. PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by HAIDOJO_trading
22) FKLI : downtrend but possible rebound?resumes frm 21), fkli-feb did the exact opposite of my expectation! On my titled "reverse-to-bullish", it didn't reversed to bullish at all! But what had happened was it formed some kinda "head" at 1591, then trapped in tight range frm 1581-1585, then rollover all the way down. Price formed lower-low at 1560++, then shoot all the way up to...1591! At the end of February, last-day pull-up oso did not happen. Some of the stocks gave out disappointing quarter results such as Genting, Genm, etc...MOst probably this was one of the reason for the sudden fall. More bad news to come? Well, we have to wait for US then. One of the thing to look out was this current support level,1537-1540, which was a strong critical area bcox it was tested multiple times in the past. -IF no more bad news and this support level hold, THEN fkli-march might test back 1565-1585 level. - IF the bear is strong, THEN lower level of support range frm 1500-1510. -IF bull is trying to reverse the trend, THEN it has to fight back higher than 1565-1585 level, reaching the closest high frm 1600-1605. I am not ashamed if my prediction is wrong because this is part and parcel of trading. IF I am right, THEN I go for it. IF I am wrong, THEN cutloss. Simple. GUd luck and gud hunting. PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MYX:FKLI1!Long
by HAIDOJO_trading
21) FKLI : reverse to bullishresumes frm 18), fkli-feb dropped down to slightly lower than the expected 1575, reaching low at 1572(1571.5 precisely), THEN a rebound on FRiday! A classic false breakout to the downside. A reversal is said to be formed when the price broke abv the previous lower-high at 1583 (the red marker) and closed at 1589.5 on FRiday, 21st Feb25. Now, bull is in charge. IF the market is aggressive to the upside, THEN it will retest 1595-1600. IF the market breaks above the strong resistance 1600, THEN it will go to the next level at 1613 and 1628. IF the market is slow-ish, THEN fkli-feb will hover from 1584-1588 immediate support till 1595. Deeper consolidation will touch range from 1585-1572. Price below 1572 indicate another round of bearish market appears. Since next week is the last week of February month, I will bet on "end-of-month bull rally". End of the month typically is a bull rally for fkli on some special months but most of the time it is just the last-day-of-the-month rally! PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MYX:FKLI1!Long
by HAIDOJO_trading
20) FCPO : Bull might come to an end...or juz correction?update frm 19), Fcpo-May will continue next MOnday, 24-28th Feb 2025, the last week in month of February. What happened last week was fcpo-May made what seemed like a false breakout, 4700-4720, then quickly went down. The range of 4634-4700 is important for bull to stay afloat. Price breaking below 4634 indicates the possible reversal of trend. Price within 4634-4700 is bull...IF bull is aggressive, THEN it may gap up abv 4720 and higher. IF the market is mild drop, THEN it will range frm the 4555-4634 but it is still bearish. IF market falls below the 4500-4560, THEN the next level is pretty low at 4400-4300, THEN it is a strong bearish market. PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MYX:FCPO1!
by HAIDOJO_trading
19) FCPO : uptrend resumes...???update frm 16), price frm fcpo-apr has come to an end. Fcpo-May will appear next MOnday, 17-21st Feb 2025. What happened last week was unpredicted. Price gapped up to 4640-4700 then sank lower to the 4630-4650 range. The next day, it gapped down 30pts to 4620 and fell to 4540, then rebound back to 4630... IF the market is aggressive drop, THEN it will hit the 4540-4490. IF market falls below the critical 4490(4487 to be precise) which is also the previous higher-low, THEN market has probably reverses. IF the market is slow-ish, THEN it will lower back to 4600-4540. IF the market continues bullish, price has to break abv 4600-4630, and retest the latest high at 4700. PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MYX:FCPO1!
by HAIDOJO_trading
18) FKLI : bull and bear plays tug-of-warresumes frm 17), the latest high has broken above previous high of 1590 and creates higher-high at 1600-1605. Basically, bull is still IN CONTROL but a possible "head" has been formed. At the end of the week, price falls at 1592.5. Bull still maintains till 1575 closest higher-low is broken. This could be a mere consolidation phase of a bull or a reversal... IF the market is aggressive to the downside, THEN it will retest 1575-1585. IF the market breaks lower than the previous higher-low at 1575, THEN market has reversed into bear. IF the market is slow-ish, THEN current point 1590 - 1595 is the range for possible continuation to higher price. Deeper consolidation will touch range from 1585-1590. PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MYX:FKLI1!Long
by HAIDOJO_trading
13) FCPO : bull and bear are playing tug-of-warAs I continue frm the previous 11), I quoted that fcpo might test the 4280 soon. Well, this wasn't the case for last week, 20-24th Jan 2025. fcpo was trading within the range frm 4135 - 4280. Although price had fallen frm 21-23rd Jan, market has rebounded in the last minute, which was on the Friday, 24th...so it is possible that a reversal has happened. Price moving above 4280 will confirm a bullish comeback while price below 4135 indicates a bearish move that eventually hits 4100 and 4000. PLS remember, I am not a guru and this is not a signal service provider. THIS is mere for fun. #tradersupporttrader #FCPO #FKLI #futurestrader #cpop #malaysiatrader #bursa #BursaMalaysia Disclaimer : "I am not a guru and I am working hard to make profit same as everyone else. This is not a recommendation of buy or sell, just a mere idea of trading and trading journal. Please consult your financial advisor for any thought of buying or selling. Trade at your own risk."
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by HAIDOJO_trading
FCPO Outlook: Key Levels and Strategies for the Week AheadRecent Market Overview MYX:FCPOJ2025 MYX:FCPOK2025 MYX:FCPO1! The market, both for outright contracts and spread contracts, has shown significant signs of consolidation recently. As such, I believe a comprehensive analysis is necessary to identify contracts worth monitoring, key price levels to watch, and whether the market leans bullish or bearish in the near term. April Contract From Friday’s daily chart closing price, it seems that the price has found support around 4,130 points. However, the overall trend remains bearish, as evidenced by a clear double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline on the daily chart. I foresee two possible scenarios for the upcoming price action: consolidation or continued decline. If the market consolidates, the range will likely be between 4,120 and 4,500 points. If the market continues to decline next week, I expect resistance around the 4,000-point level, which is approximately 300 points below the current price. May Contract Friday’s closing price on the daily chart suggests that the May contract has also found support around 4,100 points. The recent price action mirrors that of the April contract, showing a double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline. However, the 4,000-point support level for the May contract appears stronger than that of the April contract. Currently, the benchmark contract is the April contract. Does this imply that when the May contract becomes the benchmark (on February 17), the price will find support at 4,000 points and then reverse into an uptrend? If my hypothesis is correct, the upcoming price action will likely involve a third test of the neckline and consolidation, as we await the May contract to become the benchmark. Summary of Outright Contracts Based on the April and May contracts, I anticipate a relatively stronger market next week, with a potential third test of the neckline around 4,500 points for the April contract. Additionally, Chicago soybean oil futures showed no significant decline this week, closing at 45.72 points. The price still has approximately 3.30 points of room before hitting resistance at 49.00–50.00 points. If prices fail to rise and instead decline on Monday, a reassessment will be necessary. APR25 - JUL25 Spread Contract The daily chart for the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract shows a clear ongoing downtrend. The observed price range is roughly between 100 and 200 points, with Friday’s closing price at 122 points. I do not find this contract appealing for entry. If outright contract resistance is at 4,000 points, the support level for this spread contract is likely around 100 points. With only 22 points of downside room to that support level, the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable for short positions. For long positions, the price must first test 100 points and show signs of reversal before considering an entry. MAY25 - AUG25 Spread Contract The daily chart for the MAY25 - AUG25 spread contract also shows a downtrend, though the pattern is less well-defined compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract. Key support and resistance levels are estimated at 50, 100, 150, and 200 points. Friday’s closing price was 122 points. Compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread, I find this contract less favorable for trading due to its less distinct overall pattern. JUN25 - SEP25 Spread Contract The daily chart for the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract also indicates a downtrend, with prices having tested the final support zone of 0–20 points. Friday’s closing price was 37 points, showing signs of a rebound. The overall pattern appears relatively well-formed, and there is sufficient upside potential, with resistance levels at 80 and 150 points. If the outright contract price action aligns with my forecast for a rebound to the neckline, this spread contract could rise to 150 points. Summary of Spread Contracts After analyzing these three spread contracts, I believe the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract is the most reasonable for a long position next week, followed by the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract. If Monday’s price action does not align with expectations and declines instead, a reassessment will be necessary. I plan to enter a long position in the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract on Monday. If prices reverse downward after entry, I will implement a stop-loss at 17 points. If outright contracts trend downward on Monday, I will refrain from entering the market.
MYX:FCPOM2025Long
by goldong01
Bullish Signals and FCPO Entry Opportunities ? MYX:FCPO1! MYX:FCPOH2025 MYX:FCPOJ2025 The March contract and the APR25-JUL25 spread contract both closed higher on Friday, at 4,391 points and 142 points, respectively. Based on the following analysis, I believe this is an opportune moment to enter a long position: 1. Strong Performance of Chicago Soybean Oil Chicago soybean oil experienced a significant two-day rally, with a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Although the second session had not yet closed, this substantial increase—if not a sign of a sustained bullish reversal—will likely provide short-term support for the upward movement of FCPO. 2. Reversal Signals in the Spread Contract The MAR25-JUN25 spread contract showed early signs of a reversal on Thursday. From past experience, spread contracts often reverse ahead of outright contracts. While this pattern is not guaranteed every time, when it does occur, outright contracts typically follow suit within one or two trading days. 3. Support Observed for the March Contract Although the March contract did not reverse on Thursday, there was clear evidence of support around the 4,250-point level, which led to a closing price of 4,295 points. This suggests that bullish sentiment is beginning to emerge in the market. Outlook and Strategy Based on the daily charts of the March and April contracts, there appears to be approximately 150 points of upside potential to the next resistance levels—4,550 points for March and 4,450 points for April. Additionally, Chicago soybean oil closed with a strong 7.9% gain on Friday, contributing to an impressive 14.6% weekly increase. As a result, the March FCPO is expected to open at least 50 points higher tomorrow. From a technical perspective, it remains unclear whether the market has entered a full bullish trend. Therefore, it will be crucial to closely monitor the chart patterns of the March and April contracts. Should the weekly charts close higher next week, it would strongly confirm the establishment of a bullish trend.
MYX:FCPO1!Long
by goldong01
Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Signals Decline in MAR25-JUN25 SpreadMYX:FCPO1! The opening price of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract today was 265 points. During the midday session, the market experienced a sharp decline to 206 points but later recovered, closing at 227 points. From the daily chart of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract, a clear head-and-shoulders top pattern can be observed, with today’s closing price falling below the neckline, signaling a bearish trend. Referring to the March FCPO contract, the closing price today was 4,342 points, approximately 200 points above the strong support zone I identified at 4,120–4,150 points. The overall trend remains bearish. Based on this analysis, I expect the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract to continue its downward movement tomorrow. If tomorrow’s closing price is around 200 points and the March contract has not yet tested the strong support zone, I will hold onto the position. However, if the March contract reaches the strong support zone, it will be necessary to exit the position to mitigate the risk of a rebound in the spread contract. Market activity during the night session was relatively subdued. I look forward to seeing whether tomorrow’s price action aligns with this analysis.
MYX:FCPOH2025Short
by goldong01