FCPO Outlook: Key Levels and Strategies for the Week AheadRecent Market Overview
MYX:FCPOJ2025 MYX:FCPOK2025 MYX:FCPO1!
The market, both for outright contracts and spread contracts, has shown significant signs of consolidation recently. As such, I believe a comprehensive analysis is necessary to identify contracts worth monitoring, key price levels to watch, and whether the market leans bullish or bearish in the near term.
April Contract
From Friday’s daily chart closing price, it seems that the price has found support around 4,130 points. However, the overall trend remains bearish, as evidenced by a clear double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline on the daily chart.
I foresee two possible scenarios for the upcoming price action: consolidation or continued decline. If the market consolidates, the range will likely be between 4,120 and 4,500 points. If the market continues to decline next week, I expect resistance around the 4,000-point level, which is approximately 300 points below the current price.
May Contract
Friday’s closing price on the daily chart suggests that the May contract has also found support around 4,100 points. The recent price action mirrors that of the April contract, showing a double-top pattern, a break below the neckline, and two retests of the neckline.
However, the 4,000-point support level for the May contract appears stronger than that of the April contract. Currently, the benchmark contract is the April contract. Does this imply that when the May contract becomes the benchmark (on February 17), the price will find support at 4,000 points and then reverse into an uptrend?
If my hypothesis is correct, the upcoming price action will likely involve a third test of the neckline and consolidation, as we await the May contract to become the benchmark.
Summary of Outright Contracts
Based on the April and May contracts, I anticipate a relatively stronger market next week, with a potential third test of the neckline around 4,500 points for the April contract.
Additionally, Chicago soybean oil futures showed no significant decline this week, closing at 45.72 points. The price still has approximately 3.30 points of room before hitting resistance at 49.00–50.00 points. If prices fail to rise and instead decline on Monday, a reassessment will be necessary.
APR25 - JUL25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract shows a clear ongoing downtrend. The observed price range is roughly between 100 and 200 points, with Friday’s closing price at 122 points.
I do not find this contract appealing for entry. If outright contract resistance is at 4,000 points, the support level for this spread contract is likely around 100 points. With only 22 points of downside room to that support level, the risk-reward ratio is unfavorable for short positions. For long positions, the price must first test 100 points and show signs of reversal before considering an entry.
MAY25 - AUG25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the MAY25 - AUG25 spread contract also shows a downtrend, though the pattern is less well-defined compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract. Key support and resistance levels are estimated at 50, 100, 150, and 200 points. Friday’s closing price was 122 points.
Compared to the APR25 - JUL25 spread, I find this contract less favorable for trading due to its less distinct overall pattern.
JUN25 - SEP25 Spread Contract
The daily chart for the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract also indicates a downtrend, with prices having tested the final support zone of 0–20 points. Friday’s closing price was 37 points, showing signs of a rebound.
The overall pattern appears relatively well-formed, and there is sufficient upside potential, with resistance levels at 80 and 150 points. If the outright contract price action aligns with my forecast for a rebound to the neckline, this spread contract could rise to 150 points.
Summary of Spread Contracts
After analyzing these three spread contracts, I believe the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract is the most reasonable for a long position next week, followed by the APR25 - JUL25 spread contract.
If Monday’s price action does not align with expectations and declines instead, a reassessment will be necessary. I plan to enter a long position in the JUN25 - SEP25 spread contract on Monday. If prices reverse downward after entry, I will implement a stop-loss at 17 points. If outright contracts trend downward on Monday, I will refrain from entering the market.
FCPO1!
FCPO WEEK 4 2025: SHORT.Price moved to the targeted level as expected even though it took a while to reached it. As of last week, bearish is still in control. Price is expected to make a retracement to fill up the gap and then continue lower to the first TP (TP1) before eventually reached TP2.
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Bullish Signals and FCPO Entry Opportunities ? MYX:FCPO1!
MYX:FCPOH2025
MYX:FCPOJ2025
The March contract and the APR25-JUL25 spread contract both closed higher on Friday, at 4,391 points and 142 points, respectively. Based on the following analysis, I believe this is an opportune moment to enter a long position:
1. Strong Performance of Chicago Soybean Oil
Chicago soybean oil experienced a significant two-day rally, with a cumulative gain of 7.8%. Although the second session had not yet closed, this substantial increase—if not a sign of a sustained bullish reversal—will likely provide short-term support for the upward movement of FCPO.
2. Reversal Signals in the Spread Contract
The MAR25-JUN25 spread contract showed early signs of a reversal on Thursday. From past experience, spread contracts often reverse ahead of outright contracts. While this pattern is not guaranteed every time, when it does occur, outright contracts typically follow suit within one or two trading days.
3. Support Observed for the March Contract
Although the March contract did not reverse on Thursday, there was clear evidence of support around the 4,250-point level, which led to a closing price of 4,295 points. This suggests that bullish sentiment is beginning to emerge in the market.
Outlook and Strategy
Based on the daily charts of the March and April contracts, there appears to be approximately 150 points of upside potential to the next resistance levels—4,550 points for March and 4,450 points for April. Additionally, Chicago soybean oil closed with a strong 7.9% gain on Friday, contributing to an impressive 14.6% weekly increase. As a result, the March FCPO is expected to open at least 50 points higher tomorrow.
From a technical perspective, it remains unclear whether the market has entered a full bullish trend. Therefore, it will be crucial to closely monitor the chart patterns of the March and April contracts. Should the weekly charts close higher next week, it would strongly confirm the establishment of a bullish trend.
Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Signals Decline in MAR25-JUN25 SpreadMYX:FCPO1!
The opening price of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract today was 265 points. During the midday session, the market experienced a sharp decline to 206 points but later recovered, closing at 227 points.
From the daily chart of the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract, a clear head-and-shoulders top pattern can be observed, with today’s closing price falling below the neckline, signaling a bearish trend. Referring to the March FCPO contract, the closing price today was 4,342 points, approximately 200 points above the strong support zone I identified at 4,120–4,150 points. The overall trend remains bearish.
Based on this analysis, I expect the MAR25-JUN25 spread contract to continue its downward movement tomorrow. If tomorrow’s closing price is around 200 points and the March contract has not yet tested the strong support zone, I will hold onto the position. However, if the March contract reaches the strong support zone, it will be necessary to exit the position to mitigate the risk of a rebound in the spread contract.
Market activity during the night session was relatively subdued. I look forward to seeing whether tomorrow’s price action aligns with this analysis.
Palm Oil Market Watch: Technical Breakdown & Fundamental ShakeupIn the ever-changing landscape of the global vegetable oil market, palm oil takes center stage once again. From India’s sharp increase in imports to Indonesia’s biodiesel policy adjustments and Malaysia’s declining export figures, the palm oil market is witnessing a dynamic interplay of forces. On the technical front, critical price levels and trend shifts are adding layers of uncertainty and opportunity for market participants. This article delves into the latest developments and future outlook of the palm oil market through both fundamental and technical perspectives.
1. News and Fundamental Analysis
Anilkumar Bagani, head of research at the Mumbai-based vegetable oil brokerage Sunvin Group, stated that palm oil futures rebounded from earlier weakness because India, the world's largest edible oil importer, increased its palm oil purchases. India bought approximately 100,000 metric tons of palm oil during the first two working days of 2025.
Indonesia’s Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Yuliot Tanjung, announced on Friday that the country would provide a 1.5-month transition period for businesses to meet the new B40 biodiesel policy requirements. Initially, Indonesia planned to mandate a 40% palm oil content in biodiesel starting January 1, but industry stakeholders are still awaiting technical regulations for implementation.
Independent inspection company AmSpec Agri reported on Tuesday that Malaysia's palm oil product exports for November totaled 1,381,837 tons, a 2.5% decrease from November's 1,417,436 tons. Meanwhile, data from Intertek Testing Services (ITS) showed Malaysia’s palm oil product exports for December fell to 1,359,504 tons, down 7.8% from November's 1,473,761 tons.
Palm oil prices followed the trends of other competing edible oils as they vie for market share in the global vegetable oil market. In China, the most active soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange dropped by 2.56%, while the most active palm oil contract declined by 1.36%. The CBOT March soybean oil futures contract remained steady.
2. Technical Analysis
Malaysian BMD crude palm oil (CPO) futures rose on Friday but ended the week with a decline of over 5%, reversing gains from the previous week. The benchmark March CPO contract on BMD increased by RM41, or 0.95%, to RM4,374 per ton.
The weekly chart for the continuous contract FCPO1! shows that prices failed to hold the support level around RM4,500, instead falling to RM4,374. Despite losing the RM4,500 level, the overall upward trend structure remains intact on the weekly chart. The next support level is anticipated around RM4,120. If this level is also breached, it will be necessary to reassess whether the major trend has shifted from bullish to bearish.
On the daily chart for FCPO1!, the overall trend leans bearish. A clear double-top formation is evident, with a neckline break, resistance retest, and distinct downward waves. While support is visible around RM4,250, it is unlikely to be strong. Both the weekly and daily charts for the March contract indicate that RM4,250 does not represent a solid support level.
3. Summary
By referencing the March and continuous contracts, the next significant support level is likely between RM4,120 and RM4,150. Until this support range is breached, the overall trend can be described as long-term bullish with short-term bearish corrections.
Palm Oil Futures (FCPO) Technical Analysis: A Short-Term BearishThe analysis did not align with initial expectations. It was anticipated that the weekly chart of the FCPO1! continuous contract would stabilize around the 4500 support level, but this week it dropped to 4374. From the weekly chart perspective, while the 4500 level has been breached, the overall upward trend structure remains intact. The next support level will likely be around 4120. If this level is also breached, it will be necessary to reassess whether the major trend has shifted from bullish to bearish.
Looking at the FCPO1! daily chart, the overall trend leans bearish. A clear double top can be observed, along with a neckline breakout, a retest of the resistance line, and a distinct downward wave. Although there may be some support around the 4250 level, it is unlikely to be strong support, as both the weekly and daily charts of the March contract do not indicate any significant support at this level.
By referencing both the March contract and the continuous contract, the next strong support level should be around 4120–4150. As long as this support level holds, I consider the trend to be long-term bullish but short-term bearish.
Based on the daily chart trend of the March contract, it is likely that prices will decline in the short term to test the 4120–4150 support level. Therefore, I believe this is a good opportunity to enter a short position on the spread.
Currently, the support level for MAR25-JUN25 is around 240 points, with the next support level at 190–200 points if 240 is breached. If an entry can be made above 250 points on Monday, each contract is expected to yield a 50-point profit, amounting to RM2,500 in total.
FCPO WEEK 51 2024: BULLISH.A retracement followed by a bullish key reversal and an inside bar candle usually a good indication that price would continue higher. Thus next week I'm expecting a higher price for FCPO and TP should be around 5200. However if price failed to move forward beyond the area of 5065 then there is a possibility that price might go lower. For now it is bullish.
FCPO WEEK 50 2024: BULLISH.It is still bullish. It is expected that the price will continue higher or at least tested the 5200 price level. There are 2 options. It will either go ahead bullish on opening next week (OPTION1) or making a retracement to fill in the 4hr GAP and then continue higher (OPTION2). OPTION 2 is the preferred price action.
FCPO WEEK 48 2024: STILL BULLISH.FCPO is having a good retracement last week. Overall the trend is still bullish until proven otherwise. However I'm still expecting a bit more downwards before price settling to start a move a higher. A move below 4600 is a possibility next week. From there, depending on price action, the price might consolidate a bit before starting to move higher.
FCPO WEEK 45 2024: BULLISH.FCPO is bullish. However it starts to look heavy and overbought. Waiting for a retracement lower might be a good idea before committing. If the retracement holds and creates a support area then there is good probability that FCPO will move higher and possibly creating a new higher high above 5000.
FCPO WEEK 43 2024: Bullish retracement.Price has been moving higher after penetrating the neckline of the rounded bottom. Price stays above the neckline for the passed 2 weeks and it should be the indication that momentum is building for a move higher. However expect that price will make a retracement lower to the support area. If this area holds then price should continue higher and possibly making a new higher high.
Happy trading week.
FCPO Week 37 2024: BULLISH.The 4-hour chart indicates a strong upward price movement. An inverted head and shoulders pattern has emerged, with the price breaking above the neckline, marking the first wave of the move. This was followed by a brief consolidation phase, representing the second wave. Now, the price appears ready to resume its upward momentum, potentially forming the third wave. Watch for a breakout as this wave could push prices higher. A buy position may be considered, with a target price of 4018 for potential profit.
FCPO. DOUBLE ZIGZAG FORMATION IDEAReassesment of the current wave structure after price break our invalidation level of our previous idea.
As for now, my personal best idea that can be derived from the current market structure is that maybe we area looking at double zigzag formation for november contract.
Invalidation for this idea = 3698
FCPO Week 31 2024: Waiting for break thorugh.Last week, prices moved within a narrow range between 3900 and 4000. Unless there is a significant move that breaks through this range, either higher or lower, the market will likely remain neutral. This week, pay special attention to this range, particularly the levels closer to 4000, as a breakout in this area could signal a strong market move.
FCPO Week 30 2024: Slight bullish potential.Last week, it was anticipated that the price would retrace higher before moving lower. However, this did not materialize. The 3900 to 4000 range remains a critical area, with the price continuing to move within this band. Currently, forecasting the outlook is challenging, but based on recent price reactions, the market appears to favor the bulls. Next week, we will be looking for opportunities to buy, anticipating that the price will move higher.
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FCPO Week 29 2024: Bearish in motion.Based on last week's price action, FCPO appears to be trending lower. Pay close attention to the price movements between 3955 and 4000. If bearish price action is observed within this range, it could present a good opportunity to enter a short position.
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FCPO Week 28 2024: Support retest and then higher.Last week, the price broke through the 4,000 resistance area and closed above it. However, it hasn't moved significantly higher and is currently consolidating. It's expected that the price might retest the 4,000 area before moving higher towards the 4,200 level. If the price drops significantly, the outlook could change, potentially reversing the trend. Given the short trading week, adopting a wait-and-see strategy to observe the next price action might be wise.
FCPO Week 27 2024: still in range. Neutral.There was a slight upward movement last week, likely due to the price reacting to the support area. However, strong resistance remains at the 4,000 level. The recent bounce from support might reach this resistance and result in continued consolidation. Range traders can benefit from this environment while it persists. Trend traders, on the other hand, may prefer to wait for a significant breakthrough above the resistance or below the support levels to confirm a new trend.
FCPO Week 26 2024: Indecision.Another week of consolidation for FCPO. The price remains range-bound, suggesting that without a decisive move higher or lower, FCPO is unlikely to make significant progress.
For range traders, consider going long at support levels and targeting resistance, or vice versa. For trend traders, it may be prudent to wait for clearer price action. A strong movement toward either support or resistance is necessary to establish a meaningful trend.
FCPO Week 25 2024: Still in consolidation.The price remains within its range, showing minimal movement last week. Despite expectations, it has not made any significant progress upward. The outlook suggests that the price could move higher, but it needs to close and sustain above the 4,000 level to see a substantial increase.
Based on the current consolidation, we observe that the price may have formed a rounded bottom, potentially creating a cup and handle pattern with higher highs (HH) and lower highs (LH). These are positive indicators for a bullish move, but momentum is still lacking. If it is indeed going higher then the 4135 is the immediate target.
If the price breaks below the LH area, it could move lower. The best approach for the upcoming week is to adopt a wait-and-see strategy, looking for confirmation of the next price movement.