FCPO. HIGHER TO COMPLETE WAVE 3 CYCLEPrice reached 2.618 fibonacci relationship compare to wave 1.
Evaluation based on market structure, we see an extension wave 5 within wave (3) rally.
If wave (3) has ended at fibonacci 2.618 area, we expect to see a 3 wave decline for wave (4) correction.
Elliott Wave Theory:
GUIDELINE OF ALTERNATION WITHIN AN IMPLUSE
" If wave two of an impulse is a sharp correction, expect wave four to be a sideways correction, and vice versa. "
Looking at our price chart, Wave (2) already unfold into a flat pattern and flat pattern is a side way correction. We can expect to see a sharp correction pattern for Wave (4)
BEHAVIOR FOLLOWING FIFTH WAVE EXTENSIONS
" ..when the fifth wave of an advance is an extension, the ensuing correction will be sharp and find support at the level of the low of wave two of the extension. Sometimes the correction ends there and sometimes only wave A ends there... Additional value is provided by the fact that fifth wave extensions are typically followed by swift retracements. "
Projection area and pattern for wave (4) retracement using Elliott Wave Theory for alternation and fifth wave extension theory, expecting to see a sharp correction in wave (4) toward 3900-3880 area.
Bottom line:
Short term view, looking for significant retracement for a sign that wave (3) rally has ended.
Long term view, we are still aiming higher to complete wave 3 cycle on a larger degree.
Trading above yesterday high will required reassesment on the structure.
Fcpoelliottwave
CPO Extended Gains to Record HighPalm oil prices gone up higher as expected and closed at 5322 after posted record high at 5327.
Factors continue to affect palm oil prices:
1. New export permit policy in Indonesia which required exporters of vegetable oil to gain approval for their shipments and declare their domestic sales with the objective to ensure that sufficient supply of cooking oils in domestic market. New regulation may curb supplies from Indonesia and led buying spree in Malaysia. Besides, India likely to shift their imports to soybean and sunflower oils as replacement.
2. Bullish sentiment in global oil market continue to support palm oil prices.
3. Strong gains in soybean oil following latest weather forecast that turned into hot and dry weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil which may result further yield deterioration.
Technical View:
1. Market break new high and closed above 5300
2. Stochastic remains uptrend signal
Suggestion Trade:
Long if stay above 5300
Target Stop Loss (support level) 5100
Target Profit (resistance level)
TP1 5425 TP2 5525 TP3 5625
FCPO Crude Palm OilBullish is trying very hard to push against its 5 & 15 min resistance. Bullish volume in the 1HR chart seems to be working too hard with a little too less, or I can say a formation of Doji. However, the price just closed above the resistance, we will be looking closely at the next candle reaction, whether the bullish is getting weaker or stronger. Here some tip, if the bearish candle goes down easily closing below its support area + with little effort in the volume, then you know that bearish is stronger than the bullish.
Again, nothing is clear now, Price is tight right now between various numbers of EMA. Waiting for the "kettle" to reach its final temperature before bursting out to the upside or downside.
If it goes up, we can see it will go up to 4300 area or even better, closing the gap.
If it goes down, I believe that it will still not going too far, probably will retest again at 4080 area, but hey, money is money.
Good Luck.
FCPO Crude Palm Oil FuturesMy view on FCPO;
1) Price is to rally higher to the next Resistance level
2) Price is expecting to do a bullish reversal at the 0.5 fibo level which also respecting the previous resistance turn support level
Will enter into a position when price reaching 0.5 fibo and make a higher high. Targetting 170 to 175 ticks.
FCPO, LOWER FOR WAVE 3FCPO AUG 2021 CONTRACT
KEY LEVEL = 3831, 3852, 4064
CRITICAL LEVEL = 4260
10.06.2021
Trading below 3852 and 3831 would signal us that wave 3 is in play. Next reasonable target area for wave 3 will be between 127.8% and 161.8% Fibo ratio, 3472-3259 area.
As for today, we will monitor 4064 key level, trading above this level will cancel this wave 3 in 3 setup and price movement above our critical level of 4260 will cancel this setup.
I AM A GOOD TRADER - You only need one affirmation and this is it. Read these words every day until you don't have to read them anymore. =)
FCPO 09.06.2021FCPO AUG 2021 CONTRACT
KEY LEVEL = 3913,4166
CRITICAL LEVEL = 4468
09.06.2021
Expecting wave C of 2 toward 4336 area if price move above our key level 4166.
Breaking below 3913 and 3852 will strengthen the idea of wave 3 is in play.
My personal opinion, as long price is below our critical level 4468, the force is strong with the bear.
Embrace probabilities: Trading is all about probability, never certainty.
FCPO just completed it's corrective wave A=CFCPO just completed corrective wave ABC which A=C
What's direction on next? since first breakout just done !
Is all about elliott wave analysis
✅ naked chart analysis, ❌ indicator
(Disclaimer: for demonstrate own planned trade records study only and education purpose, not for recommend to buy or sell. Trade at your own risk)
Feb18: FCPO (1D) - Sideways-Up btw 3.5-3.8k before breakout 📈🐮Sideways-Up bias before the eventual Longterm upside breakout to 4k & beyond, commodities are seeing across-the-board rise on hyper-inflationary risk, thanks to massive money printing.
CPO price bounced off major S @ ~3200, subsequently reach R1-R3 upside mentioned in previous post.
Expect further consolidation near wide range top (3500-3800) region, potential retest UTL, before the expected major breakout to 4k & beyond.
🔔Overhead Resistance: 3.6-3.7k, 3.8k
🔔Support Zone: 3.5k, 3.4k
❇️ All R reached on bounce off range low (check out post link below)
❇️❇️ Major Breakout in progress on Longterm chart, link below
Happy Hunting! 🥂🚀
-jk-
Aug03 - CPO (Monthly) - Long-term Wave Count, Elliott WXYDecided to check on the long-term big picture, following CPO recent strong up-move towards 2800 area (again!).
---- marked: grey zone
2600-2800 zone is kinda midpoint to the decade-long correctional pattern following '08'09 subprime crash.
A fib plot of the sharp plunge, shows each levels coincides well with CPO major support & resistance zone.
As of now, its clearly a horizontal correction on monthly/weekly charts,
potential Elliott Double-Three, WXY wave pattern.
I've produced 2 possible counts, as we are nearing completion/already complete WXY.
Main Count (orange): currently "Y" wave within WXY Correction, wave 'd' within Elliott Triangle -abcde-
Alternate Count (blue): completion of Elliott Triangle -abcde- & WXY Correction in May2020; current bounce = potential Impulse Wave (1)
Leaning towards main count, which suggest yet another test on the infamous 19xx-2000 MAJOR support area,
before we finally bounce into a new CPO Bull Cycle, by late'2020 or early'2021. 📈📈
Fundamentally, we can relate this long-term bullishness to the dwindling global food supply as agricultural lands rapidly disappear,
-- either gave way to housing/infrastructure, due to pollution, or desertation due to climate change. 🙈🙉🙊
I shall update this count by end-Q3, 2020 -- we shall then see whether we are indeed in a new CPO bull cycle. 🐮🐮
Meanwhile, I'll keep to sideways operation mode :p
Happy Hunting! 🚀🚀
-JK- MyTradingSpace
FCPO. COMPLEX CORRECTIONKey level = 2038
Updated wave interpretation based on market fact; it seems like wave ((2)) is developing into a complex correction. Our first assumption for this complex wave ((2)) is a double three correction pattern. Looking for wave ((2)) termination in the near future. Our key level must hold for this wave analysis.
FCPO. TRADING PSYCHOLOGYKey level = 2139
Critical level = 2095
Yesterday price open with down gap and tested our key level @ 2139. Price re-bounce just 1 tick above our key level. We are still with the idea of wave ((3)) as long as our critical level of 2095 hold. Breaking below our key level 2139 will trigger alternate count that still valid for wave ((3)) development.
**((x)) denote wave label in circle.
FCPO. HIGHERKey level = 2139
Critical level = 2095
Expectation: Still with the idea of wave (3) of ((3)) in play, downward movement today we see as a corrective pullback marked as wave 2. Looking at a lower timeframe, we label the sub structure as a motive wave with an extended wave 5. Key level 2139 must hold for this wave analysis.
Reality: Let the market decide.
Hanya Allah yang memberi.
Happy trading.
FCPO. WE GOT AN IMPULSIVE MOVEMENT!Key level = 2184
Critical level = 2095
Expectation: Working on the idea of wave (3) of ((3)) for FCPO market, we are hoping to see price rally toward 2235-2260 area to complete the first sequence of motive wave before entering corrective pullback.
As for now, on one significant timeframe lower, we can only see a three-structure development.
By using the Elliott Wave Rule # 3, “WAVE 4 CAN NEVER ENTER THE PRICE TERRITORY OF WAVE 1 AND 2” , our key level is set at 2184 for the sub-wave development.
Reality: Let the market decide.
Hanya Allah yang memberi.
Happy trading.