FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 12th 2018Overall FCPO sentiment is still bearish. Extended wave iii is expected to terminate around 2190 - 2205. With a few Fibonacci levels around the 2200 psychological level (as well as being a significant SNR), the parallel channel should hold and we should see a small retracement upwards (wave iv).
If that is the case, the best position to join the bearish ride is around 2237 - 2250 area (blue box) with a stoploss above the gap. Wave 4 could also reacts at a lower supply zone (2225 - 2230) before resuming the downtrend.
Fcpoelliottwave
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 11th 2018Overall trend is still downward.
Scenario #1
Wave iv has completed (or still in progress). Should wave iv is still in progress, the upward movements should be limited to 2287 - 2297 area.
Scenario #2
Price is moving downwards within the channel, creating an extended wave iii. Price could go down until 2180 - 2210 before some retracement (wave iv)
Scenario #3 (trend reversal)
Trend reversal is assumed if price crosses beyond the invalidation level (2217).
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 5th 2018 (Possible Entries)I have laid out 2 possible movements for today as depicted in the chart. The downwards EW count is merely a projection and will be updated accordingly from time to time as the market gradually unfolds.
Entries
Short #1: 2297 - 2305 (Stoploss around 2310)
Short #2: 2320 - 2329 (Stoploss around 2335)
Alternate count (major upwards movement) can be technically ruled out. By ruling out the alternate count, wave 5 is anticipated and it can go all the way down to 2100 level. If you have short position, hold it with a stoploss at around 2349.
Long #1: 2270 - 2279 (Stoploss around 2267)
Long position is expected to be a minor retracement with the upper limit is bound by the channel (dashed) and S&D area (2297 - 2305).
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 3rd 2018Primary count : Last Friday, the 2348 level which corresponds to 0.5 retracement of wave (iii) had given an outright rejection to the market. Interestingly, the 2340 level which corresponds to 2.618 projection of wave (a) managed to stand the second day attempt as well. The perfect confluence between this invisible resistance area (2340 to 2350) and the previous low of daily market structure provides us a good area to go short with minimal risk.
Alternate count : Assuming alternate count (green) is still in place, FCPO is expected to move in a corrective fashion bound by a short term channel. The lower channel terminates nicely inside the pinbar area, a suitable zone for a long position at around 2310 - 2315 area with a small stop loss that can be loosely set at around 2305.
FCPO: Hourly EW Count - Jul 2nd 2018Primary count: FCPO is expected to move further downwards if it manages to break the (2300 - 2315) area and if it succeeds to maintain below 2300 level. The chance gets even better if price is able to cross the 2289 invalidation point.
Alternate count: Price may respond at the (2300 - 2315) area and moving higher to the next supply /gap zone at around (2378 - 2388). Crossing above invalidation level (2395) could possibly signify the exhaustion of downtrend.
FCPO: EW Monthly CountOn a monthly chart, EW count suggests FCPO is consolidating within the 5 - wave triangle (dating back to 2008) with the price is still moving further down south to complete the fifth wave (E). FCPO is expected to move towards the rock bottom area of 2080 - 2130 before bouncing upwards
FCPO. ENDING OF WAVE 3 ??Price declining from 2455 in 5 wave structure could be an indication telling us that wave 3 is going to end in near future, it is too early to say that wave 3 is already ended as there is still possibility of wave 3 extension to happen. Expecting a sharp correction wave 4 and price to re visit 2320 area, that will be the 38.2% fibo level and also the previous wave 4 of 3 area.