FCPO 9 Feb 2023 : Bearish Divergence?30min TF :
1. Price break resistance and test supply zone and push back below the resistance.
2. Price break uptrend channel. Indicate SW for 30min or change the trend.
3. MACD shows bearish divergence.
If the price goes for bearish divergence, possible to close the gap and target to be around 3860.
5min TF :
1. Price crosses EMA50 : Sideway/Change trend
2. EMA12 crosses below EMA50 : Downtrend.
Expect price sideway before continue direction.
Fcpomalaysia
FCPO TRADING : 328) a possible short rebound? this is haidojo and the number is 328 ...
A brief review of the whole June month, we could see that fcpo-Aug22 and fcpo-Sept22 were faced with a great fall or a heavy rollover all-the-way down frm RM6k ++ till yesterday, when the price had fallen below the RM4k borderline, a full 2000-pts ++ drop, marking the end of the era of RM4k, which started way back in July 2021, last year. As the hyperinflation has reared its ugly head again and threatening the whole economy of the planet, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) had made a drastic decision last night, by increasing the interest rate to 25 basis. Fcpo-sept22 hit the bottom at 3740 on 6th July 2022 after the announcement of hike in opr (overnight policy rate) by 25 basis to currently 2.25% by BNM, and most of the economists are expecting another increase of interest rate is imminent in September this year. So, folks, fasten your seat belts and ready for the roller-coaster ride!
As what is happening today, fcpo-sept22 is heading for a rebound and it is difficult to judge whether the rebound is authentic or juz a false one, which is well-known as the fake "bull-trap". Also, as I have seen most traders are putting their analysis on the boards, so I wanto put mine too...(hehe, juz "busy-body").
Here is what I think might happen or somethg to watch out. fcpo-sept22 will face first wave of selling at the resistance level at 4180 and if it falls frm here onwards, then we have bear confirmed...and no second thought on that. However, if it still seeks to rebound further passing that 1st resistance level at 4180, then we shall see some heavier sellers at the range of 4380-4480 , the higher resistance level and also the critical ones, since if the price shoots higher frm this, THEN we might have a reversal..."bullish rotation" is said to be happening and we might wanto turn into buying/long. Till then, if the price is ransacked here and pull down making a rollover all the way down, THEN we shall still see it as a temporary rebound and BEAR still wins.
There is a bit of information overload today. Hence, you might want to get a hard look at this for a gud sense. That's all for the update today.
**plan your trade and trade your plan... gud luck**
overhead resistance : 4074-4100 (happening now? wtf?)
resistance : 4180 (my expectation of 1st wave selling)
higher resistance : 4380-4480 (critical resistance, deciding Bull/Bear)
current support : 3880
lower support : 3480
WARNING!
RISK DISCLAIMER : this is juz a trading idea...trading stocks, futures , cryptos, warrants, CFDs, spreads, options or forex might incur a huge risk to your account/funds… DON’T LOSE MONEY THAT YOU CANNOT AFFORD… any idea(s) of trading in this episode SHALL NOT be regarded as a hint of BUYING or SELLING. It is MERELY a trading journal and it has been used for educational purpose only… this is not a signal service channel and DON'T TREAT IT LIKE ONE!
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK!
Can CPO Sustain Above 4500?Palm oil plunged as expected last week. Market hit weekly low at 4567 and closed at our 1st resistance level.
Main reason of the weakness in CPO market due to the uncertainties over the impact Omicron coronavirus variant which dented demand for CPO.
Technical view:
1. Immediate resistance level: 4700-4730
2. Stochastic level= Sell Signal remain
Suggestion Trade:
Initial Short position
Stop Loss at resistance level: 5000-5100
Target Profit level (support level)
S1 4500 S2 4385-4400 S3 4200
Disclaimer: Trading Carries Risks.
Happy Trading, Cheers.
FCPO Another Re-accumulation towards RM5480Happy Deepavali to all Hindu fellows...
This is UCL Posting :D
1. The last accumulation hit our conservative TP and currently making a new re-accumulation phase with a triangle pattern.
2. If the price can close above 5090 there is a chance the price will continue the uptrend
3. or else possible downwards movement to form spring formation.
4. Notice massive selling volume on 2 Nov might indicate seller close all their position to enter buy.
5. Price do make higher high.
FCPO 18 Oct 2021 : Re-entry EMA14 & Bullish pennant1. Setup : EMA14>EMA50 = Uptrend
2. Signal: Re-test EMA14
3. Confirmation : 5min bullish engulfing + Bullish pennant pattern
4. Entry : at the low side of pennant triangle
5. SL : 10 tick below signal CS
6. TP : fibo extension 100% / until reversal CS
Price near resistance but not retest yet the highest level.
Risky setup possible price go down.
FCPO 14 Oct 2021 : Break EMA50 and price sideway1. Yesterday price able to make a new ATH with a valid breakout
Trading Plan :
1. Setup : Price cross EMA50 indicates price might be downtrend or sideway.
2. Signal : Rejection @ 15min
3. Confirmation: Bullish engulfing
4. Entry: 50% of bullish engulfing
6. SL: 10tick below recent rejection
7. TP is subjective
FCPO JAN2022 Contract outlookAs we generally know that CPO products usually have a bullish trend towards the end of the year due to short supply for any reason.
Therefore, if the price is still in bullish momentum, there are multiple possibilities.
New contract price range (FCPOF2022)
Possibilities :
1)If the uptrend is still strong, the JAN2022 contract will try to break higher and close beyond the trendline.
2)If today's price is still sideways, we are looking for a possible fake breakout/rejection for an uptrend.
3)If price valid breakout support, possible downtrend or retracement
FCPO 13 Oct 2021 : Re-entry Sell EMA14Yesterday closing market setup.
Trading Plan :
1. Setup : EMA14<EMA50 = Sell trend
2. Signal: 15min Price retest EMA14
3. Confirmation: 5min Bearish Engulfing
4. Entry: at least 50% bearish engulfing body CS
5. SL: 10tick above retest CS
6. TP: 15min support area / if there any rejection
If today price open above EMA14 consider the market sideway with this possibilities :
1) Test EMA50
2) Test Resistance (R1):4900 and Support (S1):4849
Notice price is closer to the major uptrend line. Price may break the trendline or reject the trendline to continue bullish momentum.
Trade.At.Your.Own.Risk (TAYOR)
FCPO 12 Oct 2021 : Breakout EMA501. Yesterday 15min CS have a reversal pattern with bearish engulfing @ 5min TF.
2. Today's price has a valid breakout of EMA50. there are 2 possibilities when price breakout EMA50 :
i) Bigger sideway range
ii) Continue downtrend
3. Signal: 1st pullback after a breakout
4. Entry: After bearish engulfing @5min + 15min Bearish engulfing
5. SL: 10tick above highest pullback CS.
6. TP: target support area / until 15min have reversal CS.
TAYOR
FCPO 11 Oct 2021 : Re entry EMA14Today BMD increased the min margin to RM7000 due to the high volatility of the market.
Trading plan today :
1. Setup: EMA14>EMA50 @15min TF
2. Signal: Price retest EMA14 @15min TF
3. Confirmation : Bullish Engulfing @ 5min TF
4. Entry: Since bullish engulfing body CS below 10tick, enter by market order.
5. Exit SL : 10tick below retest CS
6. TP: nearest resistance/ when bear CS @15min appear..
TAYOR
FCPO 6 Oct 2021 : Retracement or Continuation?1. FCPO ATH might be due to multiple factors such as manpower shortage and rainy season. Supply is not enough, demand still consistent and drives the price to go higher and higher.
2. Price almost reaches 161.8% fibo extensions.
3. PnF target is around 5113 still further ahead.
4. Price reject Gann level 4831 multiple times
Condition :
1. If price close below EMA50@5min / EMA14@ 15min possible retracement.
2. If the price closes above Gann level 4866, possible price go higher.
FCPO 30 Sept 2021 : Break ATH or reversal?1. Based on analysts, the current price is not sustainable
2. Price almost reaches ATH before decide to break higher or lower.
3. Price consolidation for a couple of months can be reaccumulation or distribution. But based on previous spring formation and LPS indicate strong buyer.
Strategy:
For Buy..Wait for the price pullback to 4480~4490 range..Why?
1. Possible resistance become support
2. Gann level at 4490
3. Possible reject EMA14 for 15min TF
4. Minor up trendline for support
5. Fibo retracement level 38.2
For Sell : Wait for false breakout ATH
FCPO 22 Sept 2021 : Trade Shooting Star1. Yesterday have a false breakout and price consolidation for a while. As usual, the false breakout will produce a higher magnitude of movement.
2. Today price breaks 2 resistance levels.
3. Now price rejects resistance level + Gann level with shooting star CS @ 5min TF.
4. 15min TF has a spinning top black CS pattern.
5. Since the trend now is bullish, selling is only for intermediate conditions. Depend on how the price reacts to EMA14+EMA50 at 15min TF.
Other concern :
1. China Evergande issue might contribution a significant effect on the world economy.
2. China is our 2nd largest Palm oil export destination behind India.
3. Remember when Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.
FCPO 21 Sept 2021 : Trade False Breakout1. Yesterday's price has a large downside movement up to 200tick.
2. Yesterday's price close with bearish CS.
3. Today price open below the 1st support area and the price closes back inside the range close the gap.
4. False breakout trade still valid as long as the price trade above the support area.
As an intraday trader, monitor any rejection at 15min TF.
"Trade at your own risk"
FCPO Wyckoff Re-accumulation : Spring Formation1. Price consolidation starting July 2021.
2. Automatic Rally (AR) with a large price drop to establish the support.
3. FCPO created ATH shows Sign of Strenght
4. Multiple Formation of Secondary Test (ST) with significant supply volume.
5. Noticed formation of the uptrend channel.
6. On 20 Sept 2021, the price drop significantly and close above the AR/support area with moderate volume. This is a good sign for bull.
7. Price will break the resistance to continue higher.
FCPO New Contract Outlook1. So far price has respected the uptrend channel.
2. Dec2021 contract open followed by bearish momentum after the false breakout on 15 Sept.
3. Price almost reaches the bottom channel offering long opportunities.
Strategy :
1. BUY if there is reversal CS (doji, hammer, engulfing or morning star)
2. SELL if the price has a valid breakout of the support and the bottom channel. Wait after pullback for entry.