Get started

FCX

THE WEEK AHEAD: DAL, OIH/XOP, XLK, FCXAfter a short break for shortened trading weeks for the Christmas and New Year's holidays (how bout them holiday markets, huh?), I'm back to my regular routine. Here's what's on tap for the coming week ... . Earnings: I'm not seeing much on the earnings front for volatility contraction plays or premium plays in high implied volatility around earnings that are giving me that "come hither" look. I did look at DAL (65/40; earnings on Thursday), but it's got goofy two-and-a-halfs on the call side in the Feb expiry where I'd want to set up my tent, which could make call side trade management problematic. The very last type of headache I want to have with a trade is being forced to roll to a goofy strike or do something whacky because of strike unavailability. That being said, the February 15th 45 short put is paying 1.26 (30 delta) with a break even of 43.74 (8.5% discount over current price; divvy yield is 2.80%; 1.40 annualized) should that type of play strike your fancy. Exchange-Traded Funds Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: GDX 73/33 USO 69/53 OIH 64/46 IYR 62/21 GDXJ 59/34 ... And Ordered by 30-Day Implied: UNG 38/54 USO 59/53 OIH 64/46 XOP 53/43 EWZ 27/35 As usual, petro (USO, OIH, XOP) is sticking out for volatility, which is kind of why I like to be in some kind of play with a premium selling component on a virtually constant basis. OIH and XOP continue to dribble along at the low end of their ranges, so my preference would be for bullish assumption setups there with no or limited upside risk (short puts, upward call diagonals, lizards) in the short to medium term. Having gotten out of an XOP upward call diagonal last week, I'll probably re-up with something in the February cycle and will post that trade here separately later in the week. Broad Market: QQQ: 59/30 IWM: 52/26 XLK: 48/30 SPY: 25/24 I've thrown XLK (technology) in here because of its close correlation with SPY (3-month of .86). In comparison, it's got slightly better volatility metrics, but is also one-fourth the price, so you can potentially proxy a broad market play without hanging as much buying power out there as you would with one of the majors. Trade of the Week: Pictured here is an FCX (62/57) upward call diagonal (bullish assumption) setup (with an overlay of copper futures). Although it's got earnings in 18, I'm just looking to get in on weakness and in a fairly high volatility environment. Moreover, I can get in fairly cheaply with a greater than 180 day back month, which will give me plenty of time to reduce cost basis in the diagonal. I went with the March 12 short call strike for the front month because the Feb 11 was "too close," and the Feb 12 was "too far away" (not enough collected for the short call). Metrics: Max Loss on Setup: $278; Max Profit on Setup: $122; Break Even: 10.78 versus 10.82 spot; Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 69.5%.
NYSE:FCX
by NaughtyPines
THE WEEK AHEAD: CRM, ANF, HPQ EARNINGS; XOP, NFLX, FCX, EEMEARNINGS WITH A RANK >70/IMPLIED >50: CRM (81/52): Announces on Tuesday after market close. The pictured defined risk setup pays a greater than a one-third of the wing width 1.89 with break evens between the expected and one standard deevy. ANF (68/86): Announces Thursday before market open. The Dec 21st 16 short straddle was paying 3.04 as of Friday close; the 25 delta 14/19 short strangle, 1.19. HPQ (85/41): Announces Thursday after market close. The Dec 21st 22/23 skinny short strangle is paying 1.45, which makes for a near nominal trade at 25% max (.36 profit). Look for background implied to ramp up to 50 plus; otherwise, pass on a play. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH A RANK >50/IMPLIED >35: USO (100/66): I tend to use this more as of oil volatility indicator than anything (although you can naturally look at that more directly with OVX). Here, it's saying "Sell premium in petro underlyings," which for me means XOP, XLE, or OIH. UNG (96/104): With UNG, I'm waiting for a seasonality short, but think putting on something in December is likely to be too early. January, however, is coming into range (currently 54 DTE). XOP (85/45): A smidge early to go out to January, but the 29/36 is paying a 1.52 in that expiry; the 32/33 "skinny," 3.58. SINGLE NAME WITH A RANK OF >70/IMPLIED >50/EARNINGS IN REAR VIEW: NFLX (78/59): It's still got juice ... . The Jan 18th 25-delta 220/225/300/305 iron condor's paying 2.13 at the mid (but the platform's showing wide markets, so that may not be as hot at NY open). FCX (71/55): The Jan 18th 11 short straddle is paying 1.73. BROAD MARKET: EEM (71/27) QQQ (66/28) IWM (62/24) SPY (39/21) EFA (13/20)
NYSE:CRM
by NaughtyPines
Cobalt mining stock set for entry off weak volumeTSX: LUN LUN NYSE:LUNMF LUNMF Lundin Mining is a mid-cap mining company that will benefit from rising cobalt prices and demand. Waiting for bounce off likely 4.55 for entry, or 4.35-4.40 range, and not likely lower $4.06-4.10 Fib retracement. RSI going above 50 with 1w chart shows good entry with lots of scribble correlation. Sorry for the business, I mean busyness here. Cobalt value is strong and demand for electric batteries also very strong. Recovery as major player in this area is prominent. For own use. Put to use idea, comment or like, but review on Friday Sept. 14th. longbuylongsell chart with blue-black courtesy of @MarxBabu.
OTC:LUNMF
by Pokethebear
FCX - Key resistance level reached & watching for bearish entryAfter a strong bearish move price has pull back to a key resistance level of 16.70 -17.00. This is a key area to begin watching for bearish price action in the form of bearish pin bar, engulfing bar, evening star, etc. The next key support level below is 14.00 which makes a good profit taking level and could make for an attractive risk/reward scenario. An aggressively bearish position could be short stock or a moderately bearish position with some insurance would be to sell the 18 strike calls.
NYSE:FCXShort
by krugman87