FCX
$AKS 161216C$10.50 BTO Calls@market open 121216 +161223C$12.00- Been swinging Call Options on AKS since week end 11616; Purchased 4 Calls (Strike Price 10.50) on the Market Open Monday AM w/ a Limit Order price of .29.
- Averaged down w/ purchase of 6 more Contracts the following day w/ Lower Low (Consolidation) being set in @ limit price of .15. Held position - FED Hike in hopes of a Market/Metals Rally to no avail.
- Holding 10 Call Contracts Avg. Price of .22 per and looking to match the gains failed to realize pre-hike at the least.
- Looking to sell to Close the contracts on or near loss of 10, 20, 100 period MA w/ the 30 minute Chart Setup.
- Do Believe After Hours activity will have all 3; including the EMA 4 & 8 period Moving Averages as support on the open.
- If the 4period EMA has not crossed the 8 period EMA to the Upside; I will look to hold position until it does.
- Slight chance on the 30 Minute Chart of a 50 period and 200 period Golden Cross(I believe so anyways); but WILL not Hold thru Friday 12/16/16 in hopes of seeing additional gains should it not occur Thursday 12/15/16.
- Trade setup for following week or upon Total Gains >= 400% put in place w/ weakness following FED Hike and possible profit taking from medium/long term traders:
- In lieu of adding more contracts to this weeks position, purchased a total of 10 Call Contracts w/ - AKS w/ a $12 Strike Price expiring 122316 for a .08 per. If further weakness occurs - End of Week, willing to add but ONLY if it AVG. Down my Call Contract prices (.09 after commission). As stated previously have been swinging, successfully mostly, this Ticker since one week following the election, along w/ AMD, CLF, VALE, RYI, FCX.
FCX On Verge Of Dropping 21%FCX is on the verge of dropping 21%. Investors need to take note of these this major factor that dictates price action. Notice on the stock chart below, how over the last two weeks Freeport-McMoRan has been unable to make new highs while the stock market has made multiple new all-time highs. In addition, the stock chart over those same two weeks has a clear bear flag pattern formation. This usually forms when small investors are buying but big institutional traders are gently selling into them, dumping shares. All in all, these are huge bearish signals on the Freeport-McMoRan and investors should be selling or shorting the stock heavily. The first target to the downside is $13.20, a net profit from the current price of 14% for shorts. The second target is $12.10, a net profit for shorts of 21%. This trade will likely play out in the next six weeks, if not sooner.
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NEXT WEEK'S COVERED CALL CANDIDATES: ZIOP, NVAX, LC, WLLHere's my "short list" for covered call candidates for next week generated by looking at Barcharts.com high volatility stock options list and the Dough grid:
WLL buy shares at 7.66; sell Sept 16th 8 call; 7.10 debit; $90 max profit (12.7% ROC)
CC buy shares at 11.45; sell Sept 16th 12 call; 10.78 debit; $122 max profit (10.6% ROC)
LC buy shares at 5.40; sell Oct 21st 5.5 call; 4.85 debit; $65 max profit (13.4% ROC)
ZIOP buy shares at 5.46; sell Oct 21st 6 call; 4.65 debit; $135 max profit (29.0% ROC)
NVAX buy shares at 7.04; sell Oct 21st 8 call; 5.42 debit.; $258 max profit (47.6% ROC)
FCX buy shares at 11.92; sell Sept 30 12 call; 10.90 debit; $102 max profit (9.3% ROC)
JCP buy shares at 10.55; sell Sept 30th 11 call; 9.59 debit; $96 max profit (9.6% ROC)
Notes: (1) WLL's a petro play. Because so many small petro companies are in trouble of one kind or another (i.e., shale and/or offshore oil exploration exposure), I generally prefer playing something with a little less "single company exposure" (e.g., XOP). But, hey, it meets my general rule of >10% ROC. (2) CC is a basic materials/chemical play. It spun off from DuPont and has had quite an up run here in spite of a recent punitive damages judgment for chemical dumping (weirdly, the stock dipped and then subsequently popped on the news, probably out of relief that the debacle was in the rear view mirror). (3) LC's been in a downtrend since IPO. At best, a money, take, run play. (4) I still like ZIOP. It's biopharma and has a fairly diverse pipeline such that if one drug fails, they still have more in the hopper. And that 29% ROC, well ... drop dead gorgeous if it can get to $6. (5) I'm also in NVAX (biopharm). In comparison to ZIOP, their pipeline is quite narrow and currently devoted to a single vaccine (RSV). sg.finance.yahoo.com (vaccine "could be breakthrough," but not time to "break out the champagne" (code for "it could suck ... or not")). (6) FCX (mining). I covered called this in late 2015, early 2016 which commodities were at a cyclical low and then bailed out when it appeared to be topping. Looking back, it kind of looks pricey here in comparison, and I'm not so hot on the ROC. However, it's highly liquid, and it has some room to pop to 14.00 resistance (and naturally some room to cave; the 2016 low is sub-$4). (7) JCP. Well, it's JCP. Plus, it's had a bit of a run up here, and if past performance is indicative of future results, well, it could zombie trade back to sub-$9 and with the ROC, well, not at the top of my list ... .
NOTABLE HIGH IV STOCKS WITH IV > 50%1. P, 79%
2. FCX, 76%
3. X, 75%
4. TWTR, 67%
5. STX, 57%
6. ABX, 56%
7. NFLX, 56%
8 GG, 53%
9. SLW, 52%
Naturally, we are coming into earnings season here, so there's a reason that some of these have high IV here (e.g., NFLX announces in a week and a half). Ordinarily, I like IV to be >50% and IVR (current IV's level relative to where it's been for the past 52 weeks to be high, too), but I may not find a great deal of 70%+ IVR plays here with broad market volatility so low (VIX finished the week below 15).
Neverthless, it may be worthwhile to churn through this small list for premium selling plays (iron condors, short strangles, short straddes), assuming there's sufficient time before earnings to sneak a play in. Otherwise, it's probably best just to wait to do the standard volatility contraction play surrounding earnings ... .
AUDCAD: Interesting spread between copper and oilWe have a very interesting setup derived from the spread between oil and copper, also present in CADUSD and AUDUSD, due to the correlations with these instruments.
You can enter longs in AUDCAD and FCX, and short oil (be it CFDs, futures, ETFs, take your pick). You could replace by copper CFDs or futures as well, but FCX just happens to have a nicer looking chart.
We discussed this setup in the KHL chatroom earlier today.
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Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
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We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask.
Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.57% on such information.
$FCX Short, breakdown below support w/ bear marketIf the market continues lower from passing below the 50MA on Friday then I will be watching FCX for a short during the breakdown below $10.30 support level. This is mirroring the market being that it has also crossed below the 50MA, will be watching the market to see my move on this one.
Freeport-McMoran possible trajectoryLong term I'm bullish but if we can get a lift in USD and see metal take a dip we could be looking at a near term high. In an ideal world we bounce up to fill gap at 13 and then roll over and drop back to $5 levels. Tough to believe it could take such a battering but those gaps are there to be filled. One to watch this week.
Recap and update on FCXNYSE:FCX
My update for FCX,
I mentioned this stock as an idea for short. the trade is a daily trade, the stock is still weak.
Stock is forming now what's called mashroum over shape or in other hands H&S shape
The stock hits the resistance at point (A) and the low of point (B) both are strong resistance , we might see an upthrust tomorrow meaning making new high and close near the low. If we see the upthrust that will confirm on the daily the stock is in distribution phase.
FCX From here to $11.25 Looks like FCX price linger point may be around $11.20 - $11.50. This is neither a recommendation nor advice for any trade. It is my own trade journal to improve chart reading skills and validate price predictions. Typically my target price is supposed to hit before hitting nearest swing low/high (depending on if price prediction is long or short)