Fdax
DAX: Inverse Head & Shoulders into Channel Up long opportunity.DAX is trading inside a Channel Up pattern on 4H (RSI = 57.000, MACD = 49.100, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) which is an extension of the 1D Inverse Head and Shoulders (RSI = 53.511) formation that bottomed at 11,270 in mid August.
The 11,990 Higher High is symmetrical on the Inv. H&S as was 11,850 before that. This indicates strong bias towards making another symmetrical reach near 12,250 on the next Higher High. The 4H MA50 has to provide support during this run. We are long, TP = 12,200.
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Dax daily: 02 Sep 2019 Welcome to this first analysis of the month of September. Friday's session started by a relatively fast retest of our resistance zone at 11 899, which hasn't even slowed down the price momentum. The uptrend was seen until 15:00 when Dax corrected the bullish move by descending lower to retest the newly formed support at 11 899 which was our valid resistance at the beginning of the session. Dax closed in its upper range.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 037
Support: 11 868, 11 771
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs
Canada & USA - national holiday
Today's session hypothesis
Today's afternoon session might be slower than usual due to public holiday in the US and Canada. Morning session might be influenced by the series of PMI reports from the Eurozone. We also have an increased statistical probability for breaking Friday's high. We could see buyers jumping in at around 11 868 and if that scenario turns valid and the high will be broken, sellers are likely to correct the upside move at 12 037. Considering the fact we also have an increased probability of closing inside Friday's range, it is logical to focus our targets back into the range should the price get above or below the high/low from Friday.
Dax daily: 30 Aug 2019 We welcome you to this last Dax analysis of the week, month and summer holiday. Thursday's session appeared quite innocent in the first hour of trading. At 9 am, Dax shot firmly upwards and this momentum lasted till noon. At around 4:30 pm, Dax fell lower by some 90 points just to correct this volatile spike even above the initial fall.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899
Support: 11 774, 11 700
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
It appears today we could finally close the resistance at 11 899 where we hope to find some sellers at the first retest. If we target the first one lower, buyers could be seen at 11 774 or even lower at 11 700. Should the price really drop down to 11 700, all our hypothesis for a bullish move turn invalid as that level is now distanced some 150 points away.
FDAX/DAX 1H alternive EW Count (ABCDE Szenario) Please take look at the DAX Big Picutre Analysis to understand this EW Count more deeply. Should we break the red control level (around 11740) in the next couple of session then I would prefere this ABCDE Szenrio over the (ABC) Szenario which I have postet prior. As long as the Index stays above the red control level I prefere the ABC count.
Dax daily: 29 Aug 2019 Yesterday's session drew a nice 'V' shape. The price started to fall towards the support level of 11 561 right from the beginning of the session and this was the area where price marked its intraday low and bounced back upwards. The first support zone laying at 11 678 had little effect. The statistical probability about closing inside the previous day range was also fulfilled.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 772
Support: 11 608, trendline
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
08:45 - 09:55 CEST - various Eurozone reports - refer to the Economic calendar
Today's session hypothesis
For today's price estimation, we need to monitor the Price Action around the slightly consolidated area formed around yesterday's close. If Dax goes above this zone, it is likely we see a retest of 11 772 and the return back to the range zone of the past few days. Contrary, should bears prove their presence, we can see the retest of our support level and the trendline around 11 600 which could serve as an interesting area for some bullish correction.
Dax daily: 28 Aug 2019 Yesterday's high was broken out as yesterday's statistics hinted. There was no apparent resistance up till the 11 774 level which eventually stopped the bulls. The 11 678 zone functioned as a support level and the session was closed outside of the previous day range and this fulfilled the same statistical probability as well.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 774
Support: 11 678
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of closing inside of yesterday's session is 87%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today we opened with a small gap which is already closed at the time of writing. The statistics suggest the price shouldn't get out of yesterday's range. The high from yesterday at 11 774 now serves as our resistance level. We are seeing a support level at 11 678. This zone is likely to be retested and we need to monitor the price action there. In case this support holds the price, we would like to see the breakout of the 11 774 resistance zone.
Dax daily: 27 Aug 2019 Monday's session started with a sharp upside move. As expected, sellers entered the market at our resistance level of 11 611 to correct the uprun, but not for long. The same scenario occurred once more at the following resistance zone of 11 645 which also didn't have long lasting. The 11 611 zone functioned as the support for another bullish push towards the end of the intraday session.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 707
Support: 11 561
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high is 83%
The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's session is 83%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Today we have a strong statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high. Right above this level, we have a nice resistance zone at 11 707 where we may anticipate seeing some bearish correction. Nevertheless, there is another strong card for the bullish sentiment as the statistics suggest the price is likely to close outside of yesterday's range. As always, we advise all traders to be vigilant and have a clear trade plan.
Dax daily: 26 Aug 2019 Friday's session started relatively innocent. As per our expectations, Dax descended to hit our support zone of 11 759 and closed the gap. We also saw buyers attempting to regain control before the storm hit the markets. News had it that China retaliated on the US import taxes and to no surprise, Trump's swift reaction on Twitter caused even more havoc when he lifted the existing tariffs even more (including services industry) and ordered american companies to withdraw from China. Dax bears started to jump out of the window and retested the subject S/R zone after the initial plunge. Next bearish target was the following support at 11 560 which slowed down the price for a few hours just to drop even lower to close the week at 11 532.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 645, 11 707, 11 611
Support: 11 404
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
10:00 CEST - EUR - German Ifo Business Climate
All-day - G7 Meeting in France
Today's session hypothesis
For today, we estimate to see some correction of Friday's downfall. Ideally, the price could reach 11 611 - 11 645 levels which could work well for sellers to take the price towards the support around 11 404. Beware of today's news, especially some G7 Meeting after-tremors.
Dax daily: 23 Aug 2019 Our yesterday's analysis turned out absolutely successful. Dax bounced from our mentioned trendline, broken Wednesday'shigh and then returned to Wednesday's range, which had a statistical probability of 77%. Today we open with an ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899
Support: 11 759
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
USA - Jackson Hole Symposium
Today's session hypothesis
We could see some sellers from the beginning of the session taking Dax towards the support zone of 11 759 and see the correction towards 11 899 which is just a stone throw away. Before we break yesterday's high and iIf 11 759 doesn't hold the price, then the bearish target is at 11 630.
Dax daily: 22 Aug 2019 Unfortunately, yesterday's session didn't go according to our expectations. We've had clues for a bearish move and breakout of the previous day low, but Dax proved otherwise. The price was trending upwards with a strong momentum right from the beginning of the session and the resistance at 11 691 played no role too. Dax slowed down later in the afternoon, yet closed in the upper band of its range. Today we open with a descending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 779
Support: 11 667, trend line zone
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
09:15 - 10:00 CEST - Eurozone PMIs
13:30 CEST - ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Today's session hypothesis
Currently, the price descends towards the support level of 11 729 and we hope to find buyers there and head towards the closure of the gap. Up at the resistance zone of 11 779 there might be some bearish correction but eventually, bulls are likely to prevail to retest yesterday's high. If that happens, sellers are likely to return back to the range to close inside - this thesis has a statistical probability of 77%.
Dax daily: 21 Aug 2019 Tuesday's session was a bit odd from our point of view. Dax initially descended to our support at 11 646, but rather than bullish correction we hoped for, price action rather slowed down. Dax then closed near it's intraday low and today we open with an ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 691
Support: 11 560
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 96%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Considering the very high probability for breaking yesterday's low, then all our short trades have a clear target. If yesterday's low gets broken, we can estimate a faster move towards 11 560 which is a really nice support level. Sellers are likely to step in around 11 691. Should Dax break yesterday's high, then the short hypothesis becomes invalid as the statistics suggest the breakout of both swings is as low as 7% only.
Dax daily: 20 Aug 2019 Monday's session turned out as per our expectations. Although there was no short to capitalize on, one of our hypothesis was the significance of trend-line to support bullish traders. The resistance at 11 723 slowed down the price incline but no big short correction was seen. Today we open with a small ascending gap, which has a 60% probability of closing.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 11 723
Support: 11 646
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of closing outside of yesterday's range is 71%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
For today, we again expect the initial drop towards 11 646 where we hope to find buyers and finally start heading towards 11 899. If Dax goes below yesterday's low, it is likely we see a faster continuation towards 11 560 which might be another attractive zone for bull traders. If bullish momentum prevails right from the beginning of the session, then the first logical target is the high swing at 11 829 and then 11 899.
Dax daily: 19 Aug 2019 Friday's session was relatively difficult to trade. It looked like the price might go down a few times, but bulls were stronger and took the price towards our resistance at 11 606. In the end, the gap between the sessions wasn't closed and the trendline wasn't even relevant. For today, we open with yet another ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 11 723
Support: 11 404, trend-line, 11 560
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
We estimate a short correction towards Friday's close at 11 560 where bulls are likely to take over and take the price to retest the 11 723. The main target for this week lays at 11 899. If Dax goes well below 11 560, we are likely to see a slow down of Price Action and closing inside Friday's range.
Dax daily: 16 Aug 2019 Thursday's session turned as expected. Dax broke the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 96%. Sellers were dominant right from the beginning and proved their strengths yet before 11 629 so the profit potential wasn't that exciting. Dax dropped some 300 points just to almost fully correct this drop later in the day. Thursday was a rollercoaster day and really hard to trade.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 606
Support: 11 404, trend-line
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
For today, we'd like to see a drop towards yesterday's close and find some buyers there. Considering the Price Action, we see indications of yesterday's high. Yesterday's low looks pretty safe though. The upside correction could happen at 11 606.
Dax daily: 15 Aug 2019 Our market analysis didn't go well yesterday. We've had clues for the uptrend continuation and breaking of Tuesday's high. Instead of that, Dax gave us the complete opposite and formed a big daily sell-off. Today we open with an ascending gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 11 629
Support: NIL
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability for breaking yesterday's low is 96%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
We anticipate the bullish correction until yesterday's mid-range. The resistance level of 11 629 or even lower could be a good zone for sellers to target yesterday's low, which has a really high statistical probability. Even though we have such a powerful hint for today's price direction, it is important to remember that markets might always behave erratically and the statistic might not be fulfilled.
Dax daily: 14 Aug 2019 Dax started the day with the expected drop and breaking the previous day low, which had a statistical probability of 83%. There was a sudden price spike after 15:30 when Dax shot higher some 300 points based on Trump's tweets. After the dust settled, Dax slowed down and hasn't really gone anywhere for the rest of the session. Today's gap has already been closed.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 12 031
Support: 11 660
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today's session hypothesis
Wednesday's session could start with the correction of yesterday's move. Buyers are likely to enter around the support level of 11 660 and attempt to take the price higher towards 11 899 and close this gap finally. We also have 87% statistical probability of breaking yesterday's high or low, but considering the fact that low is distanced some 230 points and the normal daily range is 110 - 160 points, it makes sense to anticipate a breakout of yesterday's high.
Dax daily: 13 Aug 2019 Monday's session brought the initial short which broke our trend line. After breaking yesterday's low, buyers stepped in to retest the trendline just to allow bears to take it lower again. The price was then closed near its intraday low.
Important zones
Resistance: 11 899, 12 031
Support: NIL
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
The statistical probability of breaking yesterday's low is 83%
Macroeconomic releases
11:00 CEST - German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Today's session hypothesis
Today we expect a breakout of yesterday's low which has a good chance as per the statistics. Our short trades then have a clear target. We can find sellers around the trend line from yesterday. Considering the low at 11 538 has been retested thrice already, it is now likely to see a breakout with a further downside continuation. In case buyers take control after the low breakout, it is more probable the price will oscillate inside yesterday's session.