DAX: Limited downside. Strong long term buy signal.With the majority of global stock indices on a seasonal correction, DAX hasn't escaped the pattern and is down -4.85% from the 2019 highs. What stands out is that the downside on this correction is limited to -5.85% (avg) based on the last occurrence of the Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) on a similar candlestick pattern.
In 2016 following the post Brexit rally the Golden Cross occurred which led to a -5.85% price decline and subsequent consolidation for 90 days. When completed, the MA200 acted as a support for the 2017 bull cycle. With the current candle action being identical we expect a similar price behavior. 11,700 will most likely hold a nearly two month consolidation before the price breaks aggressively towards the All Time Highs.
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Fdax
Dax daily: 21 May 2019After closing the gap yesterday, we saw yet another strong selling. Bears dominated till the session end and bulls had no chance whatsoever. The session closed at 12 034 which is now an interesting support level.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 146
Support: 12 034, 11 958
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Very low probability of closing the gap today – only 32%
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
The price is currently hovering in the middle of the range marked by our zones 12 146 and 12 034. After the open, we haven’t seen any significant move so far and today’s statistics are not even inclined towards the gap closure. On the other hand, the zone laying at 12 146 looks very appealing from the price action perspective and we could retest this level. Our major target right now is the price at 12 146. If Dax heads south, we estimate the price may stall around 12 034 which could now serve as a support level.
Dax daily: 15 May 2019 For a change, yesterday’s session was in the hands of buyers. We first found some sellers at the resistance zone of 11 956 and they pushed the Dax some 50 points lower before buyers stepped in. Dax is opening with an ascending gap today.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 139
Support: 11 946
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application
Macroeconomic releases
11:00 CEST – Eurozone – Flash GDP q/q
Today’s session hypothesis
Today, we expect buyers to continue in the correction with the first target laying at 12 190 and then 12 455 in the following days. The probability of closing the gap is not any high today, but the market structure of the recent days signifies the initial short. We could find some buyers at the support level of 11 964 which we could use as a bounce area to enter into a long position targeting 12 195. Sellers have a possible level of interest around the 12 139 zone.
Dax Daily: 13th of May 2019Welcome to a new trading week. After the initial chop on Friday, the price descended towards the support level at 12036, which was well respected on the first attempt. During the second retest, the level was slightly broken. Following was the entry of buyers who took the price all the way to retest the resistance of 12 194 where Dax closed the week. Over the weekend, we open with a really significant gap.
Important zones
Resistance: 12 141
Support: trend line
Statistics for today
Detailed statistics in the Statistical Application (which you can find at ftmo.com/en/statistical-app)
Macroeconomic releases
NIL
Today’s session hypothesis
After price broke the trendline support and taking out the Fridays low, we can expect to test the trendline from the opposite side as resistance and continuation lower to approximately 11864.0 with potential filling of the gap from 3rd of April 2019.
DAX: More sell potential on 1D.The index is pulling back making use of the negative global trade fundamentals, but purely on a technical perspective this selling is a natural retrace of the 1W Channel Up (RSI = 56.647, MACD = 122.700, Highs/Lows = 191.3357) towards a new Higher Low. We have calculated this to be at 11,865 on a Support level that extends as back as September 2018.
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DAX: A quarterly overview.We have seen the current trading set up on DAX during its previous mini bear cycle (April 2015 - February 2016). During that time the index finally broke upwards for the new mini bull cycle once both Lower High trend lines were crossed and held as supports on at least 1 re-test.
Currently DAX has broken above the first Lower High trend line (dashed) and has already re-tested it as a support once. Based on the 2015-2016 pattern, one more (lower) test is due and on a quarterly basis this is not unrealistic as the macroeconomic fundamentals have disappointed (PMI, Sales ect) raising economic growth concerns. The market needs some time to digest these data and re-balance the dynamics.
Once the upper (bold) trend line breaks and re-tested as support, then the new bull cycle will most likely begin. This perspective suits the needs for long term investors who seek safe and reliable buy entries not for daily traders.
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DAX: Sell opportunity on 1D.The index is still on a long term recovery within the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 58.547, MACD = 106.300, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This time however 4H is on a Lower High sequence with 11,400 supporting this fragile set up. With the price already rejected just below the 11,686 - 11,838 1W Resistance Zone, we are expecting a stronger correction if 11,400 breaks. TP1 = 11,250, TP2 = 11,000.
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DE30EUR - Trading Levels for 18th Oct 2016.Anticipated exhaustion levels for today are:-
Short @ 10632.0; Stop: 200 points, Target: 600 points or >
Long @ 10480.0; Stop: 200 points, Target: 600 points or >
Use your own entry strategy for Longs with target set for 10632.0 and for shorts down into 10480.0