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FDX

QQQ in troubleAfter forming an island reversal last week, complete with a massive bearish engulfing candle off of all time highs, the break below the trend line support and 20dsma seemed fitting. Today's action was bearish, as volumes were subdued relative to recent down days. This suggest that few participants are eager to defend prices in a significant way and bid the market higher, so it seems bears have taken control of this market. I'm a seller, especially specific names heavily weighted in the index. I closed TWTR short today after huge success, added to NFLX short, initiated ADBE and FDX short, stood still on my TSLA short, and opened a deep OTM FB long put after noticing unusually high volume at the April 115/120 strikes (several spreads, buying the 120's and selling 115's and massive volume relative to open interest). I also took a flyer on ORCL, buying April calls for a bounce, as this selloff seems overdone. Bottom line... Watch out below!
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by EchoAlphaBravo
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, OIH, EWZ, XOP, GDXJThe only earnings play coming up next week that currently interests me from a premium selling/volatility contraction standpoint is MU -- with a background implied volatility in the 60's -- which announces earnings on Thursday after market close. Neither ORCL nor FDX -- which announce Monday and Tuesday respectively -- have sub-30 implied volatility, although they're probably worth watching to see if their implied's bump up closer to the announcement or, depending on price movement post announcement, whether there is an opportunity to take advantage of earnings announcement "afterglow." Preliminarily, the MU March 29th 20 delta 55/69 is paying 1.89/contract (off hours) with break evens at 53.11/70.89. The defined risk iron condor would require slightly more aggressive strikes to get one-third the width out of the longs -- the 53.5/56.5/67.5/69.5 (30 delta) in the March 29th pays 1.03 with break evens at 55.47 and 68.53. For short put/acquire/cover cycle traders who are looking to potentially get into MU lower than current market prices, the April 20th 25 delta 55 short put is paying 1.88 at the mid, yielding a break even of 53.14, a 12.28% discount over where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, you can look at going out to May here where the 55 is at the 30 delta, bring in 2.87 at the door and get a break even of 52.13 (a nearly 14% discount). As far as non-earnings is concerned, we're kind of in "the dead zone" between the April and May monthlies; for me, the April month is too short in duration (33 days to go) and the May, a bit too long (61 days). Nevertheless, here are the top four exchange-traded funds ranked by implied volatility -- OIH (29), EWZ (29), XOP (29), GDXJ (28) -- and by implied volatility rank/percentile: XHB, FXI, XLF, and XLB, all of which are at the upper end of their 52-week ranges. Unfortunately, that isn't saying much, since background implied in all of these is sub-25, with the preferred metric for background implied being >35%. It may be time to scrounge around for something directional to keep me engaged in "the dead zone" -- for example, this GE play (See Post below) ... .
NASDAQ:MU
by NaughtyPines
FedexWe have been bullish on Fedex for quite a while but now we are taking money off the table and walking away from it. The chart just does not look good. Actually I should say it does look good if you use the Ellliot waves because one can make a case since the 2009 low we do have a clear five waves up indicating somekind of top is at hand. We might chop our way higher but any gain from here should be limited. The overall transport complex appears ready to take a break. We are too.
NYSE:FDXShort
by yauger
1
THE WEEK AHEAD: FDX, NKE EARNINGSWith fourth quarter earnings announcements trailing off majorly here, there isn't much in the way of earnings to play, with the earnings of note for premium sellers being FDX, which announces on 3/21 after market close, and NKE (same). FDX is toward the top of its implied volatility range over the past six months (85), with NKE in the 63rd percentile over that same time period. However, background implied volatility in FDX isn't that great (29); neither is NKE (25), so the question remains whether a volatility contraction play in either of those will be particularly productive from a dollar and cents standpoint. Preliminarily, the FDX March 31st 177.5/182.5/207.5/212.5 iron condor plays 1.23 at the mid, somewhat short of the one-third the width of the wings I look for in these plays. With NKE, I would probably either go short strangle or narrow short strangle/iron fly, with the defined risk March 31st 54.5/57.5/58.5/61.5 bringing in 1.69 at the mid, which is also a bit shy of the one-quarter the width of the longs (7 wide) I like to see in an iron fly. Elsewhere, VIX continues to trundle on far below its long term one year (13.9) and three-year moving averages (15.4), extending a sub-15 drought that's been in place since mid-November of 2016, and no liquid exchange-traded fund has the metrics I want to see for a play (>70% implied volatility rank (6 month); >35% implied volatility). I've also been looking at bullish directional plays in either XOP, GDX or both, with my preference being for diagonals to allow me to work the short put over a period of a time rather than doing them as "one off", single expiry credit spreads. Examples: XOP April 21st 35 short put/June 16th 31 long put diagonal; GDX April 21st 21.5 short put/June 16th 19 long put diagonal. Both of these would be put on for a small credit, and I'll post these ideas separately.
NYSE:FDX
by NaughtyPines