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Fear-indicator

The Fear Index and Geopolitical TensionsIn an era marked by geopolitical tensions and economic volatility, the fear index emerges as a crucial tool for traders seeking to navigate turbulent markets. This article delves into the historical significance of the fear index, exploring pivotal moments like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1973 Oil Crisis, and the 2008 Financial Crisis. By understanding how investor psychology and market sentiment intertwine with the fear index, traders can gain a competitive edge. In today's world, marked by unprecedented geopolitical tensions, understanding the fear index has never been more crucial. As global conflicts escalate, the fear index provides essential insights into market sentiment and helps risk managers navigate through these turbulent times. A Geopolitical Powder Keg We are witnessing a convergence of significant geopolitical events: Russo-Ukrainian Conflict: Ongoing hostilities have far-reaching implications for global stability. Middle Eastern Volatility: Potential for a full-scale war involving major powers like Israel, the U.S., and Iran. Sino-Taiwanese Tensions: Threats of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with severe repercussions for the semiconductor industry and global economy. Pro-Palestinian Protests: These could escalate into widespread violence, further destabilizing the political and economic landscape. The Role of the Fear Index The fear index, often measured by market volatility, acts as a barometer of investor sentiment in the face of these geopolitical risks. By closely monitoring the fear index, risk managers can gain early warnings of market disruptions and develop strategies to mitigate potential crises. Historical Context Historical precedents show how the fear index responds to geopolitical tensions: Cuban Missile Crisis (1962): Stock markets plummeted due to heightened anxiety, underscoring the impact of geopolitical events on market sentiment. 1973 Oil Crisis: The Arab-Israeli War and subsequent oil embargo led to global economic downturns, reflecting the fear index's potential spike during such crises. 9/11 Attacks: The fear index surged as markets reacted to the unprecedented nature of the terrorist attacks. 2008 Financial Crisis: Global financial instability caused a dramatic increase in the fear index, providing early warnings of the impending market collapse. COVID-19 Pandemic: The pandemic's economic halt saw the fear index spike, signaling early disruptions. Methodologies for Calculation Understanding how the fear index is calculated enhances its utility: Volatility Indexes (e.g., VIX): Measure implied market volatility. Sentiment Analysis: Assess sentiment through news and social media. Investor Behavior Metrics: Analyze options trading and margin debt levels. Combining these approaches offers a comprehensive view of market fear in response to geopolitical tensions. The Psychological Impact Investor behavior during geopolitical crises is influenced by: Loss Aversion: Heightened sensitivity to potential losses. Herd Mentality: Following the crowd amplifies reactions. Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the probability of easily recalled events. Strategic Applications Risk managers must adopt a holistic approach, integrating the fear index with geopolitical and economic data to develop robust contingency plans. While the fear index can't predict crises' exact timing or magnitude, it provides valuable early warnings to prepare for potential disruptions. Conclusion The fear index is indispensable for navigating today's geopolitically charged environment. By monitoring market sentiment and identifying emerging trends, you can protect your investments from unforeseen events and build resilience. Embrace the insights offered by the fear index to stay ahead in these volatile times.
CBOE:VIXLong
by signalmastermind
VIX Remains Rangebound ....for nowThe VIX remains rangebound and in very good territory all things considering geopolitically and globally. No one can predict the future with 100% certainty but as long as there isn’t any earth-shattering news, fear will probably remain low, given the exception of U.S. election shenanigans coming up. Be aware here that my prediction is that at the last second (and really when it is far too late) they will pull Biden out of the race. Many will not be expecting this (though, I am astounded at how they will not) and it will cause massive volatility in our markets again before settling down. But we have all summer and into the fall before we begin to see some of this occur.
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
Until the VIX breaks this level, it remains range-boundA quick look at our VIX chart shows us that we are range-bound since June. Exactly, as I expected and have stated numerous times in past posts. But now, with the U.S. credit rating downgrade, fear has spiked. Will we break this range and move up? We could, yes. But to do so, we need the VIX to move above that 15.94 level with confirmation. As of today, the VIX can still be technically classified as range-bound at all time 2-year lows. Of course, when the VIX remains low, the market will remain relatively positive. This is bullish. Stay tuned for further updates here. Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
Crypto fear and greed & the bull market support!Hi fellow traders and investors. If your still on the fence about the market, I'm not sure why, but, I'm about to show we are in a full fledged bull market even if it doesn't feel so to you. This is the crypto markets fear and greed indicator. It came out in early 2018 and in my opinion is very accurate. It's based on human psychology and the emotions fear and greed. The MOST important levels on this chart is the 45 to 50 level and even more specifically , the 47-48 area. This 47-48 area is the support and resistance level for crypto since this indicators inception. When crypto is in a bull market it will sit above and it will serve a s resistance in the bear market like we see in the in the chart before the crypto crash of 2022. We can notice, before the ultimate fall in June of 22 that it broke above this level ever so slightly but, could not hold. During the bear market greed only reached this level once and was faced with a stiff rejection. However as we can see after this rejection the greed stayed higher even in the FTX fear of November. Although prices fell lower and there was fear everywhere the story was a little different, smart money got greedy. This lead to the initial thrust in January, it then retested the uptrend in the mid March dip before bursting through out of the bear market. Now, I'm also looking into time frames as well, although nothing is confirmed yet. 55 days cycles of movement or push before a change in pattern, but, it's too early to tell. Although, I think it could be worth looking into. The important thing here is the 47-48 area, I do believe going forward this area will hold while we are in a bull market. A substantial break especially if not followed by a quick recovery like in mid March could be a spell for disaster. Eventually it will get to extreme greed, this is where you would want to take profits. However it can stay at extreme greed for weeks at a time. Once it gets there we will have another look at it and asses it further. If you find this informative or interesting, please and follow for future content. Kind regards WeAreSat0shi
BNC:BLXLong
by WeAreSat0shi
6
If fear continues to dump, it might be lights out for the bears!Traders, Everything is playing out exactly as anticipated. U.S. Dollar topped. S&P500 looks to be double-bottoming. Bitcoin has broken to the top side of a year-long bullish descending wedge. And fear continues to dump. If all these charts continue to work in correlation together, it might be indicating "lights out" for those bears. Watch these things closely or follow me as I keep you all up to date on the progress on all. Best, Stew
TVC:VIX
by stewdamus
1
THE FEAR & GREED INDEX: THE LOWEST LEVEL, SO FAR.Welcome traders to this Fear & Greed index. The F&G Index has gone to the lowest level of 6 to date. This is the lowest in the history of cryptocurrency and this could get recorded only if the market bounces back from the current level. In my F&G updates, I have mentioned that we can possibly see the F&G reaching close to 1 as well but then what? Could it go zero or -1? There's no way that could happen. The F&G Index won't stay at this level for long. Soon we will see the indicator moving from 4,5,6 to 12,20,30. This is the time of accumulation, my friend. This is not the time to give up or sell your bags. I am accumulating it one at a time. No rush, no harry. Just slow and steady. What is your strategy? Are you accumulating too? Like and follow if you agree with me. Thank you.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Dexter_The_Trader
11
Our Fear & Greed Index shows "Greed" - Sell Greed, Buy FearOur Fear & Greed Index shows "Greed" - Sell Greed, Buy Fear Our version of Fear & Greed Index shows "Greed". The values on Fear and Greed Index range from -1000 000 (extreme fear) to 1000 000 (extreme greed). The zones are separated as follows: -500 000 = Extreme Fear -500 000 - 0 = Fear 0 - 500 000 = Greed 500 000+ = Extreme Greed It can be argued that when the market approaches or is in the "extreme greed" zone, traders are becoming overly greedy and the market is overdue for a correction. Similarly, it can be argued that when the market is in the "extreme fear" zone, traders are being overly cautious and the market will soon reverse. Our Fear and Greed Index gets updated every nanosecond. In order to calculate the fear and greed index, we gather data from 5 different sources: Volume Open Interest Social Media (Reddit & Twitter) Search Data (Google & Bing) AI opinion AI painted the chart using TradingView's native charting tools. Analysis: we used Google ML "Firebase" Toolkit, OXYBITS Space Invariant Artificial Neural Networks. 100% bots, zero humans, DYO before investment.
Short
by Elysian_Mind
1
Bitcoin FUD Update - Support has Broken! Will it be Confirmed?Traders, Quick evening update. Ya'll know I don't do this unless something unusual has occurred or is occurring. In my last video update on Monday , I mentioned that we needed to be a bit cautious this week because BTC loves to throw us a wicked curve ball every now and then. And that is exactly what seems to be occurring here. Recapping that video with a BLUF, I would state quickly that I was hoping for more of a retest of our support (which we did get). However, I was hoping that support would hold and that we'd move sideways through Friday. My cautionary flag, if you remember, was that everything seemed to be playing out precisely as expected for the last several weeks and when that happens, experience has taught me, be prepared for something new and different. And here we have it. A strong dip below support as the shorts go on the prowl for all those leveraged longs. Now, remember, I stated that we needed some good test of that support for me to really become more bullish. This dip below support is even better that I could have asked for. And I am super excited to see what is occurring here as it causes me to become even more bullish than even I expected to become (and I am a strong bull above that BLACK ascending trend line as you all know). So, here are a couple of things to note on my noisy chart: #1 - Doing Fibonacci from the wick low on March 14th to the wick high on March 22nd gives us some good levels. #2 - .618 Fib retracement intersect exactly with the 100 day ma which is also intersecting with the 50 day ma. This is huge! And this area of confluence provides us with such a strong support that it as if it almost repels the price above it from coming down to touch it. It will be difficult for the bears to get that contact but if they do, it will act as a trampoline of sorts to propel us upwards rapidly. #3 - .618 is a common retracement level and is often reached in a drawback. However, %50 retracement is also common and we have currently reached that level which is intersecting with an already drawn support level I had at around $43,000. Will this hold? Here are my expectations: #1 - We are back in the FUD zone. I don't know what happened news wise as I have been on a bit of a vacation around here, but I did see that the VIX spiked quite drastically: This spike in fear has obviously carried over, whatever it's cause is? But my charts are showing me that this fear my be quick lived. #2 - The dollar has done the expected and become even more bullish (as I already outline in the last video). When the VIX is up and the dollar is up, it's almost a 100% guarantee everything else will drop. And that is what has happened. Really, I don't expect us to spend too much time back in this "FUD ZONE" area. When I say "too much time" I mean that it won't be months again like it was last time. The bulls have signaled that they want to move higher with our break above $45,000 resistance last week. Liquidity is drying up (another reason for the quick drop) - a very bullish sign. And long term hodl'er wallets are at an all time high as $$$ moves off of exchanges to hard wallets. If I had to guess, I'd say were probably already almost done with this current drawback. Smoked out most of those leveraged longs and now we can proceed once again according to game plan. Maybe another day or two (a week at the most) is my best guess and we'll be on our way up and back over that support zone again! Take care my fellow traders, -Stewdam.us
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
2
SELL YOUR BITCOINS Because...Hello Dear Crypto Traders or Holders. How much you know about BTC Fear & Greed index? Do you know when the market is in Extreme Fear or Greed what will happen? I am here to learn you a little this type of market analysis . Well, if you see this idea, congratulations, you are far ahead of many in this market who understand the use of Trading View. You can tell the difference between analysis and good prediction. let's get to the point Not all tools are always used to analyze the market more accurately, and you need to integrate them properly according to your own strategy. For example, indicators are not used alone, you have to combine the technical with it or ... I am here to tell you that bitcoin will not go higher than its own ATH at this time, as many expect, you ask why? I combined the technical and classic RSI indicator and another useful tool called BTC Fear & Greed index. Well, you know that markets often react to their own past What does this market tell us now? He says that whenever the BTC Fear & Greed chart penetrates above 80 and reaches Extreme Greed mode, most of the whales and big ones in the market start selling their possessions when simple people are greedy, and look back at the market in this situation. crash and experience deep shaving Or vice versa, when people are in deep fear and this tool goes to the numbers 30 and below, whales use people's fear and get their property cheaper than they grab. Conclusion: 1. Bitcoin has reached its greatest resistance. 2. The RSI indicator from 6 OCT 2021 shows a negative divergence. 3. The BTC fear & Greed index tool has reached over 80. 4. People who bought bitcoin for 64,000 are selling. 5. In the lower time frames formed a twin hills (Double Top). 6. In the 4-hour candlelight we see that the candlesticks do not have the power to break this important level at the moment. 7. And more importantly, the whales are thinking of trapping traders. You can save your profits and wait for lower prices. Now you ask what if he did not correct and BTC hit the ATH ? Because in this market, nothing is 100%. In my opinion, if 10% of this happens, after hit the ATH btc will return to 64000 and when the pullback completed you can enter again. BE SAFE
Short
by aqayesalehi
9
VIX: below normality levelHi Guys, #Evergrande #EnergyCrisisEU My question to you is the following: In your view, what's the risk posed by above two factors to Stock Markets? Are these threats sufficient to bring back uncertanty? Thank you for your thoughts and kind regards Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. Trading in foreign exchange (“Forex”) on margins entails high risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not an indication of future results. In this case, as well, the high degree of leverage can act both against you and for you. Before you decide to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully assess your investment objectives, experience, financial possibilities and willingness to take risks. There is a possibility that you will lose your initial investment partially or completely. Therefore, you should not invest any funds that you cannot afford to completely lose in a worst-case scenario. You should also be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and contact an independent financial advisor in case of doubt.
TVC:VIX
by cozzamara
7