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Fear

"VIX, a powerfull tool to use on SP500" by ThinkingAntsOk -Today we are going to show Vix Index on daily chat compared to SP500 (orange line). The first thing we noticed is the Wedge formations on the chart. -As Vix starts going down, SP500 keeps rising, the concept is that people trust on the strength of the bullish trend, on this process we can see the Wedge patterns on VIX, and bullish trends on SP500. -To see the Wedge Pattern we only need to draw a line between the higher lows on VIX. -OK great! But how can I do something with this? -Let’s see it on this way, imagine you have been following a bullish movement on SP500 and you see that is about to face a major resistance zone and you observe that the bullish trend is losing strength. When you detect this, you are going to Focus you attention on the VIX chart, and you are going to ask yourself the next question. -Is price inside the Wedge Pattern or is about to break out? -If the price has broken out the structure and SP500 is on a Major reversal zone, then, that’s a strong bearish confirmation to start thinking on bearish setups. -Why should I look for bearish setups? Because that means that people is starting to have fear of a possible bearish movement that’s the reason VIX is making new highs and has broken the Wedge pattern, we should complement this by seeing bearish candlesticks on SP500 with high volume on them. -Conclusion: see on the pictures how Vix preceded the beginning of the two previous bearish trends with a breakout signal. -Complementing charts is always a good way of making your setups more solid. *Please note that the above perspective is our view on the market, We do not give signals and take no responsibility for your trades.
CBOE:VIXEducation
by ThinkingAntsOk
1
Where we are? Fear And Greed & NVT IndicatorBitcoin is in bullrun, or in bull trap? Everything would look great (except for short-term unsustainable parabolic growth), but ... these two great indicators show great trouble . The first indicator is the Fear And Greed index . Do you know the Fear And Greed index? If not, google ... This indicator shows greatly what emotions are in the market. The second indicator is my favorite NVT (Network to Value). NVT has an amazing ability to predict crashes even in places where conventional indicators can't predict it. Both of these indicators show extreme values . They are even the !!highest values in history!! The high values of these indicators have always meant a huge fall ... look at the chart. Some ideas?
BNC:BLX
by DalimilBrodsky
Why BTC could be going MUCH lower. Part II: Vox populi"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” Possibly one of the most influential quotes of all time when it comes to investing. While this is necessarily not always the case, Warren Buffet understands that the whole merry-go-round that we call the stock, gold etc. markets are based on one, though far from simple, thing: psychology of the participating individuals. It is the reason why 90% of all individuals fail in trading as they are lead by emotions and irrational deicisions. The other 10%? They understand the game and simply go against the mass sentiment of the sheep, profiting of off them in the process. So what is the current sentiment in the crypto sphere? alternative.me Well, if we take a look at the crypto fear and greed index we can see that currently greed is in the market with a valuation of 57 (you can look up on what the whole algorithm is based on). If we take the TA approach, we can see that the 60 mark provides a heavy resistance. 56 is the point at which Bitcoin tumbled, broke 6k and capitulated (though if that was the true capitulation remains to be seen). What does this mean? Well, firstly, do note that there are times when a greedy overall sentiment can be justified. For example, if Bitcoin made a higher high and established a firm support at a new level that would definitely mean that greed is, at least for the short tem, a justified sentiment. Another example would be Bitcoin decisively breaking the 6k support-now-resistance level as that would essentially signal the start of a new bull market. But, with that being said, can the greed really be justified in this point in time? If you look at the TA fundamentals, we are now facing heavy resistance on a weekly time frame with a multitude of indicators: 1. 200 EMA (in red) is holding the price firmly below 4100 2. 20 MA (in black) is falling down like a bomb and though an argument can be made that we broke it, I would like to see a breakout with A LOT of volume. Breaking such significant MA is no small feat and any breakout without volume cant really be taken particularly seriously. 3. RSI on the weekly is 1. overextended and 2. at a super heavy resistance around 43,44 In short, the sentiment is telling us moon while the TA is telling us a completely different story. That would make the current greed sentiment UNJUSTIFIABLE. I plan to take additional short positions and cant wait for these thing to fall like a rock to at least 200MA. Once there we will evaluate the position and react appropriately. Stay tuned for Part III of the series, where we will take a look at an indicator with a literally 100% accuracy. Thank you! P.S. If you like my analysis, please hit a like as otherwise, if no one is reading them there is no point in writing them either.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Bluewhere
RGR: All American BreakoutI love holding Sturm Ruger stock, and it returned me a cool 30% last time I held it from buying at $50 and taking profit at $65 after the Parkland shooting. RGR has an inverse relationship with news media sentiment for the firearm industry because they're customers are driven by fear as much as enjoyment of owning and operating firearms. Every time the news media reports on a high fatality count shooting, RGR and the other firearm and ammunition industries go up because their customers fear a ban and go drive short term sales in a way that resembles a bank run. It's so predictable, you could set a clock by it. First level resistance will be $52.50 likely crossing the 20 or 50 day SMA within a week or two with it easily sailing through if this is a real trend and not a false breakout. Expect a more firm resistance at $56.50 coming up at the 200 day SMA with the sky the limit depending on how long this gun control media cycle starts up again. I even went out and stocked up on equipment myself to get ahead of rising prices anticipating a surging demand. MACD is showing a strong reversal after stalling downward action in the prior weeks. We're hitting of a yearly low, so news like this is a harbinger of a strong regime change in the opposite direction. The price is rising off an RSI low at 28 and rising up through signalling a buy on that tried and true value investor indicator. Expect money flow and price momentum to rising and go positive very soon as a trend confirmation indicator if you're nervous about going long right away. Volume spikes huge on Friday, but didn't drive the price up too much yet, so there's still time to get in on this one at the ground floor. I've already gone long and plan to hold for a few weeks to a few months to enjoy the full run of this cycle back upward. It's not my first time to this rodeo.
NYSE:RGRLong
by chuckination
BTC - Fear & Greed Index vs price, can repeat history?Hi I show you some different view on Bitcoin now, I am looking for sentiment and Fear & Greed Index. Fear & Greed Index is now on 12, that low was in April 2. Everytime in this year if index was under 15 than price go up. Stochastic in history look similar like now. Februar 2. Index 8 (100% up in 13 days) April 2. Index 11 (42% up in 21 day) June 29. Index 16 (45% up in 20 days) October 18. Index 13 (10% up in 4 days) November 23. ????? This is just my idea about this Fear & Greed Index, looks possitive for me, so I want to share with you. I will be update it Thank you
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by crypTouche
1
EOS Crash not over yet!! Another 45% to go!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY EOS in free-fall !! BITFINEX:EOSUSD is down by more then 83% this year!!. We are looking for another significant drop to the @2 level, thats another 45% wow! From my experience stay on the sidelines. Follow your Trading plan, remained disciplined and keep learning !! Please Follow, Like,Comment & Follow Thank you for your support :) This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only! Update idea
BITFINEX:EOSUSDShort
by SMPTrader
2
Houston, we have a pb?Based on my Analysis: How impressive the bears are for embarking a lot of people in their coup. My last resistance barrier is at 3838 USD. But I see already a resistance above that. The bears are so strong, The price has already breached it a bit but it didn't fully rushed through yet . The price is about to slow down. We have a good pattern seen in the S4W/MirrorStop indicator. Normally lines should always cross each other. But as we can see, the red rebounded and it didn't cross yet. That's a good scenario telling the price is about to go up. And if a second rebound happens, before crossing, we will enter into a reverse scenario that made the price falls from 6400 USD to here (price will significantly go up). At least there is a climb to occur, but bears are still in charge , for now. The up move will occur only after the the S4W/MirrorStop line will cross again. So we are still far from it to occur. That still give a change for a new rebound before crossing. That would be really nice. I think the price will slow down anyway very soon. I'm not afraid of the current fall. I would say there is 70% chance, that horizontal line I've draw near the price will be a resistance level. We have a mark about this in the S4W/Normalizer. If horizontal line is cross, the price will really slow down its fall.if the value goes up it's interesting though. At least, it will flatten, at best, it will make the price rising up Remember all the horizontal lines I've drawn on my last ideas. They are still here and play important role of support/resistance... PS: Don't take my words for granted. Analyze, re-analyze, then trade at your own risks. PS2: If you like this analyze, please click the LIKE button. FOLLOW me also to get my latest ideas. Thank you very much.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Atemak
S&P500 Monthly Head & Shoulders, Tech Stock/Cannabis BubbleTech stocks and Cannabis have been seeing massive growth over the past few months. Because of Trumps Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 tech companies have bigger profit margins, they reinvest their profits in Company Share Buybacks, job growth hasn't increased much. The problem is this has caused a massive BOOM in the market this year, we are seeing exponential growth in FAANGs and other Tech Companies. Venture Capital firms are betting Millions and Billions of dollars to new Tech Startups (Unicorn Startups) www.inc.com , believing they have the potential to be the next Amazon/Netflix with these companies having very little to zero profits and actually operating on losses. The biggest reason that the SP:SPX , NASDAQ:IXIC , and DJ:DJI have DROPPED is because companies that have been buying back their own shares, with this recent October Blackout fear has slowly started creeping in as companies cannot buyback their own shares for a few days before quarterly earnings. This massively decreased volume of an already overextended US Equities market www.wsj.com if these companies don't have big profits/earnings this holiday season. They will need to sell their shares flooding the market. "Buybacks have been one of the big stories supporting the market this year. DataTrek estimates that in the last 12 months, the companies in the S&P 500 have purchased $646 billion of their own stock, 29 percent more than the previous 12 months. And there's plenty of "dry powder" left. One firm estimates at least $350 billion of buybacks that have been planned for the year and are just waiting to be put to work. And no, it is not just Apple that is buying its own stock. More than 300 large-cap companies have active buyback programs." There are many more indicators such as the Fear & Greed Index showing that the market is turning for the worst money.cnn.com . The CBOE:VIX has also signaled from Fear in Oct 5th to Extreme Fear today. Cannabis Bubble is also coming to an end, we've all seen what NASDAQ:TLRY , NYSE:CGC , OTC:ACBFF , NYSE:PM . All investments in these companies is Hype driven, "$12 billion valuation for Tilray stock makes no sense, since the company is slated to generate less than $160 million of revenue next year. Even though the cannabis market will be huge, the current valuation of Tilray stock is premature and overly optimistic".
AMEX:SPYShort
by Malfury
1
Trading Psychology 3 Fear Keys to building a strong Traders Mentality (Probability Mindset) There are many hindrences to developing the probability mindset, and it would be easy to write an entire book dedicated to them all. However most of these issues fall into four broader categories; fear, false beliefs, trading the "now moment", and edge execution. In the following paragraphs we will touch on these key issues and simple ways to address them. Fear As humans we all experience fear throughout our lifetime and so much so the "fight or flight" response has been genetically enbeded into our DNA. Many traders believe they will natuarlly be able to “trade as a computer” after X amount of practice or experience. They assume these components of human nature will eventually give way and soon they will be able to trade without fear or emotions. There is a problem with this theory. We are not computers, and never will be. We are human, which means we are susceptible to emotions and fear responses that are built into us. We are also far from perfect, and full of mistakes, furthering us apart from computers. With this said, it is extremely unlikely a trader will be able to over-ride his natural insticts without slowly and gradually changing his way of thinking first. The best way to overcome fear is through exposure in small doses. For example someone who is afraid of heights, is not taken to a fifty foot cliff and forced to jump off. And he surely does not overcome this fear spontaneously, or naturally after any period of time. Instead he is slowly exposed to heights and as he gets comfortable, taken to increasingly higher points. He may jump off a ten foot cliff, then twenty, and so on until he reaches the fifty foot cliff and jumps off. It is important to realize his fear was never removed completely, but rather he was able to cope with the fear and still jump. This model can be applied to trading, whether it is slowly building a position size, executing an edge every time it is present, or getting comfortable being in the market with looming uncertainty. Fear can often be debiliating, and is a major hurdle to overcome when transitioning from an amateur to professional trader. The most common result of fear is "anaylsis paralysis" where a trader is unable to make an action due to information overload. There are many different types of fear that occur while trading. Fear of failure, success, missing out, leaving money on the table, and mistakes, just to name a few. It is normal to feel uneasy when putting on a trade or while in a position. The problem lies within hesitation when fear prevents you from entering an otherwise reasonable trade, or any other necessary market action (take profits, cut a loser, hold longer, ect). If you find yourself not entering a trade, there are only two reasons why. First, the trade does not meet your edge criteria, which is a completley valid reason to not enter a trade. The second which is a problem, is fear. When a trader stops entering trades meeting his criteria due to internal fears, he begins to cherry pick trades, and skews his traders equation. This can mean the difference between a profit and a loss at the end of a series of trades. Understanding and recognizing fear within yourself and the market is vital to profitable trading. Awareness of fear within yourself is the first step to overriding and correcting it. And recognizing fear in the market is often a good opporunity to position a profitable trade. It can also be helpful to realize fear only exists in terms of one's ego and is not actually real, only percieved. Using "Halfsky" position to overcome fear Many traders experience fear and hesitation after a series of losing or winning trades. When he passes on a trade which works, he is upset he missed out. If he enters and loses, he is upset he gave back profits. This back and forth continues to build, and again leads to cherry picking trades as he believes he can identify w
Education
by tradersmentality
Bitcoin forecast: the downtrend is NOT overSo, where are we right now? Everyone is acting like Bitcoin is doing unpredictable things and are getting liquidated. In this market context, which is a bubble burst , we have to keep in mind a couple of things before entering trades: What drives a bubble burst is market-psychology and an alternance between hope and fear : an alternance between FUD and FOMO. While inexperienced traders and emotional investors who bought the top are trying to "cover their losses" or make quick and "easy" gains using heavy leverage on small timeframe trades, experienced speculative traders are using them as fuel, and making them fall for FOMO and FUD. Shorts were at an all-time-high (which means that there are a lot of liquidations and stops to hit, this can give a huge momentum for an upward movement), we were getting dangerously close to the apex of a symmetrical-triangle, the order books were getting thinner by the minute and alt-coins have been rallying for a few days, this creates the perfect setup for a quick pump. In the context of a bubble burst, entering short term trades with heavy leverage is very risky due to the higher than usual volatility. Most inexperienced traders with poor money management will burn their accounts during such times if they use high leverage in short term trades. Now, what am I anticipating? I am anticipating a new wave downward a bit slower than the previous one which should hit a new low which I estimate to be around 4k8. In my opinion, we could have a trend reversal if we break the previous top around 8k8-9k (which is also where the desistance on the daily log chart is). Obviously this should not be taken as investment advice and this is just the scenario that I'm betting on right now. A trader will NEVER have 100% accuracy, what makes you earn money on the long term is a decent risk-management, not a god-tier accuracy.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TDesormiere
Volatility itself could kill the marketsThe VIX is called the 'Fear Index'. That's for a good reason. In times of high volatility what do you do? People in general stay out i.e. they sell off and keep their powder dry, or look for safe havens. They fear for their money, even if they don't admit it. As a trader you're told 'volatility is good for traders'. But really - is it? It depends on how extreme the volatility is. How many of you have stayed out of the markets simply because you cannot withstand the volatility and risk? I think there are many who do so - and they are right. No point jumping in and getting fried if you cannot take the loss (in your stop losses). The average true range on many charts are pretty high in recent times. And if your stop loss is sensibly going to two times average true range (at least), many will know that they cannot take the loss. It's this simple, do you throw your money into a volatile market, like stocks at this time - and have any degree of confidence that tomorrow morning or two months later, your assets are gonna be worth more? I think not. So logically most people will not venture much into stocks at this time. Forex markets too are becoming more volatile in the last 2 months and more so in the last week. Can you jump in and with what level of stop-losses? Most people are gonna stay away. This is about mathematics. Most people have smaller accounts and cannot withstand the volatility, so would sensibly stay out. The whole thing is connected up. The Yen and USD to Wall Street (the US30); the EURUSD to Ger30. They've got you cornered! :)) If a majority - even 51% of people - stay out, it means they've gotta liquidate, which means selling off. If this idea is right then it means there is more downside to lots of indices and possibly increased volatility on forex markets.
CBOE:VIX
by Captain_Walker
The dangers in listening to the newsI'm sharing a chart to give my sentiments about listening to the news. New traders especially tend to listen to the news and website opinions about where markets are heading. I show a bit on how I approached a particular situation on the US30. A lot of news is late and people who create news items or blogs have their own biases, based on the information they have. The news can be dangerous to trading as it can cause a trader to become apprehensive, doubtful and stay out of trade setups that may be quite sound for entry. News can be depressing and cause a trader anxiety. Some very important earthshaking news may be useful e.g. some major monetary policy change in Europe or America. But on the whole, listening to or reading news is fraught with problems. I've found that I make better decisions when I approach the markets with a kind of fearlessness described by Mark Douglas . The fearless state of mind is not 'recklessness'. It is about calmly making decisions and accepting risks in a reasonable way, based on a tested strategy. None of the above or the video is advice to traders.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
BITCOIN_M30_The fear index: V_As i said in the last 2 BTC's analisys, where i've build a levels map to identify the interesting levels area as dynamic support and resistance, i've a clear short view from 10.800 based on several long period patterns which are showing much more realative weakness than relative strenght. Long period approaches presenting a nice and wide bear channel coming from the last bull-run where most of the small investors has bought, and lost money. As shown in the chart, let's look about the historical volatility increasing, we know that the fear index is mean-reverting, so the V use to increase and decrease during the time, but it tends to come back to the average. That's a simple concept, but it works. For this reason, as the previous analisys published, i prefer to consider each kind of ONLY SHORT pattern starting from M15 to Daily frames. All the levels are published, and could be taken as a "green or red light" to place/close a buy/sell order following your personal method's rules. I will update soon all the levels map, adding much more financial instruments, starting from simple and forecastable Cryptos crossing Forex Maj, global indices, bonds , commodities closing with Economic indicators overview . I'm glad to announce that i've just started a project based on data analisys, business analitycs and the merging with trading approaches. Our target is to spread, share, write and design what we love and what we do day by day with passion and ethics. E-CHAOS (www.instagram.com)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by E_Trade