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Fear

Volatility itself could kill the marketsThe VIX is called the 'Fear Index'. That's for a good reason. In times of high volatility what do you do? People in general stay out i.e. they sell off and keep their powder dry, or look for safe havens. They fear for their money, even if they don't admit it. As a trader you're told 'volatility is good for traders'. But really - is it? It depends on how extreme the volatility is. How many of you have stayed out of the markets simply because you cannot withstand the volatility and risk? I think there are many who do so - and they are right. No point jumping in and getting fried if you cannot take the loss (in your stop losses). The average true range on many charts are pretty high in recent times. And if your stop loss is sensibly going to two times average true range (at least), many will know that they cannot take the loss. It's this simple, do you throw your money into a volatile market, like stocks at this time - and have any degree of confidence that tomorrow morning or two months later, your assets are gonna be worth more? I think not. So logically most people will not venture much into stocks at this time. Forex markets too are becoming more volatile in the last 2 months and more so in the last week. Can you jump in and with what level of stop-losses? Most people are gonna stay away. This is about mathematics. Most people have smaller accounts and cannot withstand the volatility, so would sensibly stay out. The whole thing is connected up. The Yen and USD to Wall Street (the US30); the EURUSD to Ger30. They've got you cornered! :)) If a majority - even 51% of people - stay out, it means they've gotta liquidate, which means selling off. If this idea is right then it means there is more downside to lots of indices and possibly increased volatility on forex markets.
CBOE:VIX
by Captain_Walker
The dangers in listening to the newsI'm sharing a chart to give my sentiments about listening to the news. New traders especially tend to listen to the news and website opinions about where markets are heading. I show a bit on how I approached a particular situation on the US30. A lot of news is late and people who create news items or blogs have their own biases, based on the information they have. The news can be dangerous to trading as it can cause a trader to become apprehensive, doubtful and stay out of trade setups that may be quite sound for entry. News can be depressing and cause a trader anxiety. Some very important earthshaking news may be useful e.g. some major monetary policy change in Europe or America. But on the whole, listening to or reading news is fraught with problems. I've found that I make better decisions when I approach the markets with a kind of fearlessness described by Mark Douglas . The fearless state of mind is not 'recklessness'. It is about calmly making decisions and accepting risks in a reasonable way, based on a tested strategy. None of the above or the video is advice to traders.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
BITCOIN_M30_The fear index: V_As i said in the last 2 BTC's analisys, where i've build a levels map to identify the interesting levels area as dynamic support and resistance, i've a clear short view from 10.800 based on several long period patterns which are showing much more realative weakness than relative strenght. Long period approaches presenting a nice and wide bear channel coming from the last bull-run where most of the small investors has bought, and lost money. As shown in the chart, let's look about the historical volatility increasing, we know that the fear index is mean-reverting, so the V use to increase and decrease during the time, but it tends to come back to the average. That's a simple concept, but it works. For this reason, as the previous analisys published, i prefer to consider each kind of ONLY SHORT pattern starting from M15 to Daily frames. All the levels are published, and could be taken as a "green or red light" to place/close a buy/sell order following your personal method's rules. I will update soon all the levels map, adding much more financial instruments, starting from simple and forecastable Cryptos crossing Forex Maj, global indices, bonds , commodities closing with Economic indicators overview . I'm glad to announce that i've just started a project based on data analisys, business analitycs and the merging with trading approaches. Our target is to spread, share, write and design what we love and what we do day by day with passion and ethics. E-CHAOS (www.instagram.com)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by E_Trade
BTC, The moon is in the well.Have you ever read the story about the fox, the wolf and the moon? It was written by La Fontaine. To sum things up, the wolf wanted to reach the moon but an optical illusion made him chase it down a well...where he drawned. This tale is both simple to understand and actual since people are still trying to chase a "moon" that could definitely hurt them. Aside from that, the analysis shows a bear market. No news in that. The 8k support level I identified on Jan 17th (see related ideas) still holds, with a second support at around 5500$ in case the first one is broken with supporting volumes. Notice the "death cross" on the 12,26 MACD...this fall is not supposed to stop soon. The entire Bitcoin cycle is definitely into the "fear/capitulation" phase. No wonder things escalated pretty quickly. Best trade here is no trade and keep liquidity. As usual this is not a trading advice, merely my idea. Stay safe out there!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SteveEnnom
$VIX Will History Repeat itself under 9.40 ?I like to look at potential patterns in market cycles. The VIX has touched 9.40 three times since 1990. December of 1993 December of 2006 June 2017 to present What is interesting about these dates? They all precede the build up of a financial crisis of some kind. Take December 1993, the VIX briefly touched a low of 9.31, 3 years and 7 months later the East Asian financial crisis took place. 5 years and 8 months later the Ruble Crisis leading to Russia defaulting on its debt. 7 years and 3 months later the $QQQ hit an all time high which ended the Dotcom Bubble. The VIX surpassed the low of December 1993, hitting 8.60 on December 2006, 10 months later the Sub-prime mortgage crisis was beginning as the $SPY peaked. 1 year and 9 months later Lehman Brother collapsed. I know the VIX as the fear index. In respect to that could it be that a lack of fear in the financial markets drives poor risk-management and inevitably leads to a crisis?
CBOE:VIX
by UnknownUnicorn194809