Fear
BTC, The moon is in the well.Have you ever read the story about the fox, the wolf and the moon?
It was written by La Fontaine. To sum things up, the wolf wanted to reach the moon but an optical illusion made him chase it down a well...where he drawned.
This tale is both simple to understand and actual since people are still trying to chase a "moon" that could definitely hurt them.
Aside from that, the analysis shows a bear market. No news in that. The 8k support level I identified on Jan 17th (see related ideas) still holds, with a second support at around 5500$ in case the first one is broken with supporting volumes.
Notice the "death cross" on the 12,26 MACD...this fall is not supposed to stop soon.
The entire Bitcoin cycle is definitely into the "fear/capitulation" phase. No wonder things escalated pretty quickly.
Best trade here is no trade and keep liquidity.
As usual this is not a trading advice, merely my idea.
Stay safe out there!
EURAUD: Buying EUR at its cheapest.EURAUD: Buying EUR at its cheapest where people often fear to buy.
CADJPY: Buying CAD at cheapest priceCADJPY: Buying CAD at cheapest price where most people fear to buy
$VIX Will History Repeat itself under 9.40 ?I like to look at potential patterns in market cycles.
The VIX has touched 9.40 three times since 1990.
December of 1993
December of 2006
June 2017 to present
What is interesting about these dates? They all precede the build up of a financial crisis of some kind.
Take December 1993, the VIX briefly touched a low of 9.31,
3 years and 7 months later the East Asian financial crisis took place.
5 years and 8 months later the Ruble Crisis leading to Russia defaulting on its debt.
7 years and 3 months later the $QQQ hit an all time high which ended the Dotcom Bubble.
The VIX surpassed the low of December 1993, hitting 8.60 on December 2006,
10 months later the Sub-prime mortgage crisis was beginning as the $SPY peaked.
1 year and 9 months later Lehman Brother collapsed.
I know the VIX as the fear index. In respect to that could it be that a lack of fear in the financial markets drives poor risk-management and inevitably leads to a crisis?
Gold Trick Or Treat?As most of the financial advisors told this year,holding long position with gold.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
with trump ruling this days.verything could happen with this expensive metal.
falling price under 1100 could push us towards 900 this year with the strength of the us dollar.
For Trump, it was the lost art of the dealMexico and the Mexican Peso are the "silent" winner. Europe and European Stockmarkets should be same.
Quote: "For President Donald Trump, the collapse on Friday of his first legislative priority, a healthcare reform bill, was an embarrassing loss of face ....
It brings into question the neophyte president’s ability to move big-ticket legislation through Congress.
Source: www.investing.com
XIV important breakoutThere is an important resistance level in the area of 40$ and the stock can't seem to break it. It tried many times but it remained unsuccessful. On top of that, we can see an important RSI divergence which can give us a hint on which way the breakout will be. The fear of the elections will also drag the price down below the triangle.
Hang Seng If the recent developments in the markets hold and fear dissipates, I think a play on Hang Seng index would be terrific opportunity. To be sure, I am still expecting a slight pull back to around 18500.
This index is peculiar in the sense it has some good correlation with China but is not as violent as CSI index.
For someone with high risk appetite, this should work well. Some risk money could be allocated here.
Note: This is not exactly a China play. It's more of decoupling from the ridiculously elevated level of coupling play.
Long VVX Short PlayAll I care about here is that green dotted resistance line. Once we can get a 30 mn candlestick to close above that line then we can setup a long trade. If the candle never closes above I don't to trade it. Heres why I think this has a chance at rallying.
1) Closed red on the year just a few days ago, first time in a long time.
2) Sentiment in market is fearful, thats why you see the VXX reatracing not selling off .
3) Continuation Flag pattern here
4) Fading Volume in the downtrend (weakness + trend reversal clue)
5) A lot of support at 20.50
Keep a tight stop below whatever market structure is created tommorow. But once again, we don't want to go long unless we close above/ violate that green dotted resistance line.
The fall in Bund yield do not mean the same than beforeAs you could remember during the last Greek crisis the Bund Yield fell even to negative territory, this was due the haven factor in the biggest economy in EZ
Now that every body says that the situation is much better than in the 2012 the Yield (as you can see in brown, remember that the price of Bund is inverse to it's yield) is even lower. Why?
The mail reason is the demand that is expected from March due the QE announced by the ECB.
This expectancy of scarcity of bunds is pushing the price of the bund upper (or the yield lower) so now by this ECB QE we can not use the Bund as a measure of fear so plain as we did in the past.
The main evidence of it is the behavior of the DAX, the Equity is still rising (not as happened in the last peek of Bund price)
Any Way the rise in Bund still very good correlation with the EUR.
Possible bearish targetsAs the charts begin to turn more bearish, we are forced to look for some sign of a turnaround. The trend, which has been going on for over a year, appears to still be intact. I expect that we will either form a double bottom as we did back in 2011 (I will link to an interesting chart by lowstrife that caught my attention), or we will have one final leg down to the $120-$130 level where we will find the most support. If that doesn't hold, then we could see a flash crash to $86 followed by a very slow crawl upward/sideways for a long time. At the current rate, I'm sad to say it doesn't look like we will see a swift recovery. It may still recovery, but it may take longer than we expect.
One thing is clear now: that the China bubble really was a bubble. Now we are in the despair phase and we may hang around here a bit longer before an uptrend can begin in earnest.
