Tutorial: PC-Indicator - Spar_maDeutsche Version Unterhalb.
English version:
This indicator is supposed to be another tool to recognize when a panic movement has begun and also ended. Of course, there are other indicators that work very well, but this can also help to identify the timeframe.
Description of for using the indicator with the example of the panic sell-off in March:
Before the selloff started, two areas can be identified in which the market is being tested. This is when at the same time, the price intersects with the 21 moving average and the put / call indicator. This indicates that something could be wrong (no guarantee, just an indicator). This happened first (marked with 1) when the virus was discovered: Few who had been informed had any idea what might happen. The second "drop" (marked 2) happened when it was publicly announced that such a virus existed. The third time the panic broke out (marked 3) long after the virus was known. The portfolios should have been hedged here at the latest. Shortly before the yellow marking the virus was reported daily and maximum panic were spread. This was the point at which the hedge could theoretically be ended (if you have the courage to do so). However, I myself waited until the 21st and the indicator were clearly broken.
This indicator could have helped to save a loss in value of the portfolio by at least 17%. I hope this indicator can continue to perform as well.
Please leave a like and subscribe if you are interested in further trading ideas from me.
Name of the indicator: “PC-Indicator - Spar_ma”
That’s my opinion and should be treated like it.
No trade advice!
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Deutsche Version:
Dieser Indikator soll ein weiteres Tool sein um erkennen zu können, wann eine panische Bewegung beendet ist. Natürlich gibt es weitere Indikatoren die sehr gut funktionieren, dieser kann jedoch zusätzlich dabei helfen zu erkennen wann es soweit ist.
Beschreibung des Indikators an Beispiel des Panischen sell-offs im März:
Bereits vor beginn sind zwei Bereiche zu erkennen, an denen der Markt getestet wird. Dabei kreuzen sich gleichzeitig der Kurs mit dem 21-gleitendem Durchschnitt und dem Put-/Call- Indikator. Das lässt darauf zurückführen, dass etwas kommen könnte. Dies geschah zuerst (mit 1 gekennzeichnet) bei der Entdeckung des Virus: Wenige die Informiert wahren, jedoch ahnten was passieren könnte. Der zweite „Drop“ (mit 2 gekennzeichnet) geschah als öffentlich bekannt gegeben wurde, dass ein solches Virus existiert. Beim dritten Mal brach die Panic aus (mit 3 gekennzeichnet), lange nachdem dieser Virus bekannt gewesen war. Spätestens hier sollte das Konto gehedged worden sein. Erst kurz vor der gelben Markierung wurde täglich vom Virus berichtet und maximale Panic verbreitet. Dies war der Zeitpunkt an dem theoretisch der Hedge beendet werden konnte (wenn man den Mut dazu hat). Ich selbst habe allerdings noch gewartet bis der 21ger und auch der Indikator klar durchbrochen wurde.
Dieser Indikator hätte dabei helfen können einen Wertverlust des Kontos um mindestens 17% ersparen zu können. Ich hoffe dieser Indikator kann weiterhin so gut performen.
Bitte lasst ein like da und abonniert mich, falls Ihr Interesse an weiteren trading-ideen von mir habt.
Name des Indikators: “PC-Indicator – Spar_ma”
Dies ist nur meine persönliche Meinung und sollte auch so betrachtet werden.
Dies ist keine Handelsempfehlung.
Fear
You haven't heard of this one but now is your chanceRadix will be huge in a year or two - it has been in development for many years and has one of the most impressive techs I have ever seen. Now the price is literally at ATL. An opportunity like this can never come ever again. It is availbale only on Uniswap now.
Bitcoin MAJOR UpdatePlease review the current price action of BTC.
1. Bitcoin is still in the Ascending Channel
2. Just broke out of a small bull flag looking to test higher levels
3. Top of the Channel (Red Line) is formed from the bottom support from Bitcoins lowest levels.
4. The top of the Channel is prices at 28-30K
5. Fear & Greed index is at an ATH.
6. Do NOT buy here
7. Expect a 20-40% Correction in the near future
8. Possible Alt Season During Correction - but not confirmed yet
Forming another leg up but the trend will end soon.
Baghodlers wiped out at the bottom as usual + time to go to ath***************** Part 1: An expensive but valuable lesson for Bitcoin bulls *****************
I have not heard much from Bitcoin "investors" in the past 12 months.
This is what I kept repeating back then (2018-2019):
"
The bear market is not over/2019 is a fake bull market (hundreds of them laughed at me)
They will refuse to sell until Bitcoin goes into panic mode and there is extreme violent selling, THEN they will disappear (maybe a bit before maybe a bit later)
You won't hear again from them
They will miss the actual next bull market
"
And what did happen? Haven't heard from them since then 😏
A few people had youtube channels so we can see them closing them, also not posting anymore, and a few have at least made a goodbye video.
I think the bulk really left in Q4 2019 - Q1 2020. Mostly during the scaaaary selling.
I am not making this up. You can view my past ideas.
Here is the last BTC idea that got a lot of attention from haters calling me an idiot. Feb 21. 54 comments.
After this it stopped. I was not getting dozens of hate comments anymore. They just went poof. Who's the idiot now?
Checking some profiles, no ideas in 7 months I wonder why. Oh someone is bullish on alts that are down and never going up.
I posted an alarmist idea in March 2019 when Bitcoin was really down and bagholders were very scared.
The amount of hatred I got was interesting. I got even way more than usual. They were in anxiety mode.
And they are all gone.
Markets are very good at finding peoples breaking point. Bitcoin found crypto investors breaking point. A very valuable lesson.
Some of them might return to trading in the future, like some people came back "older and wiser" after getting burned during the dot-com bubble.
And the cycle will repeat itself endlessly.
This is actually the most Bitcoin has falling in 24 hours at least since 2013.
On Bitfinex, bottom 2 was more scary.
Still, the March 2020 scare was a 50% drop in 24 hours and this never happened before as far as I know.
Not only was it brutal but there was a first part with a massive drop in a couple of hours then a break where baggies were relieved for sure "the worse it over", and then just a few hours later they got hit with another brutal candle that went much further down.
The 2013-2015 bear market ended with 30% drops "only".
For sure Bitcoin bulls panicked and saw it going straight to zero "this is it", "it's the end".
They clearly were an over emotional bunch. Glad most of them are gone.
I want to look at it one more time. It feels good to.
You know I tried catching the bottom but that was ridiculous
Posted these ideas 3 days apart (Bitcoin going to zero and Bitcoin going to 10,000 when it was at 8300):
***************** Part 2: Bitcoin long target reached *****************
Follow up to this:
Got to target but does not mean it is over.
European regulators banning bitcoin cfd right when the bagholders were about to make some money 👍
So typical and therefore so predictable
People can keep criticizing me insult me but I will keep being right
Already 8.5R here! This means it would cover 8 losses. I could be the biggest fool and lost 8 times in a row and still come out ahead.
And it's just the start imo. Because I am waiting for the vertical move and I have no seen it yet.
My trailing stop is at 4R right now.
Crash Happening?With many outlets warning of a crash this could push sentiment towards a bearish market.
COVID cases rising in Europe could indicate a similar fate for the U.S. The stimulus checks not coming as promised and an election that could change the monetary policy and increase taxes on the wealthy that influence the market. This could mean trouble with an eviction crisis coming soon too. The only thing I see getting us out of this is a massive distribution of a vaccine that works. People aren't trusting the idea of a rushed vaccine (wasn't that the plot of I AM LEGEND?)
Anyways based on this information, I'd like to submit my analysis of the SPXS which in the heat of the lockdowns rose 150%, and based on this information I will see price targets of 11.10-11.50 which is where I will start a trailing stop. Then I may consider the price 16.60-16.75 based on technical analysis and price action. The trailing stop may hit prior but either way, I will profit while the market tanks. I hope you do too
Wanna know how big this rout might be? VIX patterns give a hintComparing the end 2019 into 2020 VIX technical pattern, there is a similar consolidation, followed by a breakout. Even the MACD and BMT ( custom relative strength and momentum combines indicator ) set up appear similar for both scenarios.
( Ignore the Buy Sell signals, they are not reliable on the VIX chart )
Does this suggest a blow up of some kind in the making?
Too many parallels...
The adventures of leveraged naked ootm option sellersAh the famous "free money" option sellers.
Ah the famous strangle strategy.
Option sellers. Ok.
Naked option sellers. Sooo...?
Way out of the money naked option sellers. Let me think...
Way out of the money strangle naked option sellers. Getting good.
Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers. Oh boy.
Ultra Leveraged Way Out Of The Money Strangle Naked Option Sellers That Never Cut Their Losses. Not fair for other Darwin award contestants!.
They have to be doing it on purpose.
A strangle is an absolutely garbage strategy where the writer sells (slightly) out of the money options on both sides.
The maximum profit happens when the price stays between both strike rates. Not going to make a full explanation and a drawing, but what is important is it involves option sellers that take small premiums win very often but are at high to unlimited risk.
The premium basically means that even if the price goes against you a bit you are still in the green. Out of the money means you have even more breathing space before the price gets to a losing area, and then additionally you have the opposite side premium as additional "breathing room", which in all means the price has to move very much for you to even start being worried. But when it goes that far... careful.
Depending on how out of the money the option is the premium can get pretty low... So the option seller won't make alot of money. There is no free lunch.
A summary of those strategy is "Picking up pennies in front of freight trains."
Ok here is a drawing xd
A few people use this, and I know it is taught by Tom Sosnoff that runs a brokerage. You might recognize him in some old documentary & interviews about the 1987 (he was a market maker obligated to buy people bags and "add to loser" and they all were running out of liquidity & had to beg banks for more money so the whole system would not collapse). He is the creator of thinkorswim that he sold to TD Ameritrade for a big bag of money.
He published a video recently where he bashed the robinhood effect where down synd- er I mean young credulous investors (and legends like Portnoy) are getting enabled to gamble on risky & complex products they do not understand. Oh wait no he praised it all, said it was wonderful and a new paradigm. Sad. "Hurray optimism" (until the suicide). Not sure what my opinion of him is right now.
On the long run those strangle work, and ... well I can't say any idiot can do those clearly with all the clowns blowing up ... but it does not require any prediction ability (you are better off if you can predict low volatility thought), it is maybe complex to understand for novices at first but rather "easy".
Someone running such a strategy will often win, and get consistant profits, but the profits are just... small. And funds or individuals using this strategy have to be prepared for big moves that sometimes happen and have a plan to hedge at some point.
Tom Sosnoff tells people to "trade small trade often" (another broker telling people to trade often gee didn't expect that).
Since this strategy makes little profit, fools have a tendancy to use leverage, sometimes alot.
Warren Buffet once said, or more than once, way more, that leverage was the best way to wipe out your wealth.
Especially when mixed with ignorance. He uses leverage himself, but not like this, not like these guys...
The only way I see leverage maybe making sense with those strategies is say you make 1% a year, so you'd put 90% of your money in a mix of equity indices & risk free with low correlation, then use 10 leverage on the remaining 10% that is used to write options, keep risk managed, so then you make 10% on the 10% and if something goes real wrong you have deep pockets, 9 times the amount... Using a bit or even 2-3 times more capital and more leverage too would not even result in getting wiped out for those that did. They REALLY asked for it.
There are plenty of naked option sellers that got wiped out, included hyped or famous ones. Naked selling means you do not own the underlying (so if you never buy until the client exercises his right you will have to first buy the asset at whatever price, or have to buy it from him if he is short potentially at a much higher price than the market price).
James Cordier from OptionSellers dot com, Victor Niederhoffer, Karen Supertrader, LJM Preservation And Growth Fund (HAHAHAHA they have a great sense of humor).
James Cordier used way out of the money options, so it would look something like that:
Wow! We found the holy grail! You cannot lose!
He really got zero sympathy, and even his clients did not get much. They either knew it was risky or did not bother how to even put this they did not even bother looking at was option selling was somehow?
James Cordier was making tiny profits with huge risk, had very high winrates, and because he made little profits he used extreme leverage to get any significant amount out. He is the epitome of the concept "Picking pennies in front of a freight train". They should use his picture in encyclopedias.
Those leverages aren't even poor risk management at that point we reached another stage. Seriously this guy is an absolute psychopath.
Victor Niederhoffer used to be a rather famous fund guy, he worked with Soros, he was rather popular I think he wrote in big journals, probably was on tv regularly. He was "one of the best" making 30% a year for 20 years, famous people held him in high regard, he was sort of a mentor to guys that are famous today. But he missed a few braincells. He sold a big amount of naked puts in 1997 then the market crashed. Rekt. Another "myfxbook" loser. Maybe he was just bad all along and got lucky for 20 long years. Outlier. He probably whine that it was just "20 sigma bad luck". He blew up again 10 years later 😂. Rekt by the trash securities crisis of 2007. Oh ye another "free money one". If you saw the movie "the big short" you might remember scenes where bankers were laughing and partying at the "idiots that bought options against CDO/MBS". He was not a banker himself so Bush did not use taxpayer money to bail him out. He was not unlucky actually, he was very lucky to have lasted 20 years the previous time. Dumb people often have Dunning Kruger...
Karen Supertrader was a random old lady that got into the Sosnoff noob strategy. It is very hard to lose money while keeping it small with that one, so idk I guess this is why he pitches it to complete noobs that would all become day traders and lose their money quickly. Hey they'd just lose their money otherwise, at least here they are making a little. It is true, can't even blame him he is maybe saving noobs. Should just let natural selection do its job just like getting rich slow is actually not slower, helping people is not actually helping.
She was an outlier in a normal distribution, mistook that for greatness, and started a fund managing to get idiots to invest hundreds of million. 150 I think.
She ended up losing if I recall a good 50 million, hide the losses as unrealized (which she rolled over each month and used new positions to offset), while still collecting fees.
I remember seing her interview on how great she was and thinking "ye give it a little while" and then doing some research, and oh ye blew up haha.
Didn't see that coming.
I don't get people brains. If people use certain strategies, it is mathematically impossible, literally impossible, they can get certain returns without taking huge risk or committing fraud. Why is it so hard for the creatures on this planet (especially regulators) to comprehend? It is physically impossible. Proven. This is not economy or climate science where randos come up with their ooga booga opinions and apocalyptic calls, mathematical PROOF means it is true period. Really blows my mind. How are all those mouth breathers even alive?
If a strategy no matter what is contained in Upper Bound Lower Bound and we are outside of the bounds it's not because of divine intervention or a parallel universe. I don't even know how they think. Lmao I crack up when I try to imagine their thought process. It's like the market moves 10% in a month, and someone tells you they simply bought & held, made 60%, and used no leverage. And some people are stupid enough to think this is possible??????????????????????????????????????? Wow.
LJM Preservation And Growth is just the funniest. "Preservation" in the name, then goes to the option selling casino with infinite leverage.
People trusted it blindly because it has preservation in the name? XD Reminds me of some groups in the USA self proclaimed "good guys".
Idiots that fall for this get the karma they deserve.
You can find stories and read about it on the internet it is all over the place. The best bits is how they always find excuses.
The fund came up with "there is no way we could have predicted the 911 attacks". The stupidity of this excuse is really beyond.
I don't even know where to start. Well I don't think I need to explain. They clearly were in the wrong business entirely.
"Oh no there are risks in the business" 😂
One of optionsellers client shared a google doc of his 1 million (in total) portfolio, here it is, it goes from left to right day by day so you can see how the positions evolve and how James Cordier holds onto his losers forever, until death pulls them apart.
docs.google.com
You can find the second to last idea James Cordier published on seeking alpha here:
seekingalpha.com
He got all excited at the "free money" (greed & euphoria) and then sh** his pants (fear), held the bags, blew up. The he was less excited (pain regret sorrow etc).
Emotions -> Emotions -> Emotions. Mistakes -> Mistakes -> Mistakes. Like a baws. And the guy had 20 years experience or so.
His last idea was a short on coffee and he was very right. Should have just went short for real with leverage since he was gambling anyway rather than sell for "only" 1.8 million.
The website has his ideas since 2009.
You know these people I think they just hate losing. He probably was right often enough but I am not going to backtest his ideas got better things to do (got a new zombie game to try haven't been able to play games in weeks because idk they bore me but at the same time I really need a distraction I must be alone having to force myself to play games rather than the other way around).
It is not the case for all of them of course, but I am sure alot would make money without having to use 50 leverage if they just applied their analysis and accepted to take the risks, rather than look for some really stupid trick to always win.
As a speculator you get rewarded for absorbing risk/volatility. Sometimes down sometimes up, but on average more up than down.
How can some people be in the business, and not as market makers or arbitragers or brokers, for 20 or 30 years and still look for "sure thing" strategies and be afraid of taking a loser? Who cares if the portfolio moves a bit in 10 or 20 years the end result is what will matter.
It is clearly not for every one.
They should know better and be prepared for the "big events", but they go pavlov brainwash and emotional and feel good about it, as long as it has not happened they think it won't (and even once it does some don't even learn and think they really fell under the wrath of god and did nothing wrong as demonstrated by Victor Niederhoffer, seriously how dumb is this guy? I don't have a quarck of respect for him.)
If you are able to survive those big events, accept small drawdowns and they do not cause you to make mistakes, you are already ahead of many.
Another obstacle to be making money in this game. When you "have it" it really seems like a no brainer, but yes there really are alot of people unable to climb that obstacle.
Aren't 90% of casual investors bagholders? With "strong hands". So afraid to take a loss. Strong hands ye right, weak chins.
The receding chins are using computers now so they don't piss themselves, but I don't think the computers will be able to do everything, just the small day trading.
If we get to the point computers can go THAT far to predict the future weeks away (not just M5 stat arb etc) we won't even need markets anymore anyway, and we'll be too busy visiting other galaxies xd
Imagine science without all the dogmas and politics. Imagine politics without all the politics. And so on. I ain't worried. My tip to profitable speculators: learn to invest, find a passive income stream, you never know if you'll still be making money in 10 years, but don't be too worried all opportunities just disappear (unless communism).
Yes you never know if it is a pullback or the end, it is easy to look at it in hindsight compared to being in it and think "oh it just goes up".
Psychology of OTHER People in the Market Matters More Than YoursMorning Traders - The next in our series of education posts is going to focus solely on Psychology. specifically regarding the psychology of OTHER people in the market. Once you nail this topic its going to give you a huge edge on the market.
Any trader is always looking whether the next few price swings are going to be bullish or are they going to be bearish? That is the essence of trading - If you know the next few price swings are going to be bullish then it makes it easy to make money right?!
Once you have this identified then you simply just need to time your entry, the safest way to do that would be to be watching for a short term pullback against your bias of where the price swings will be headed. Its important that when looking at these price swings, you watch HOW the price moves, don't need to concern yourself with any chart patterns or candlesticks, but ask yourself as you watch the price move, is the price moving with strength or weakness? If price is pulling back from your bias with weakness then this is an opportunity to place your entries and wait for the price swings you have anticipated. If price pulls bask with strength then it could be time to consider you bias again and stay on the sidelines.
The real key when analysing price action both in the long term price swings you see and in each movement within those price swings is the psychology of everybody else that is trading in that market with you. Much has been written and spoken about regarding making sure you own mindset and psychology is right within trading but I personally feel understanding how other people are feeling within the market is worth so much more. Once you understand how other people are feeling, their emotions etc then its becomes easier you predict their actions.
One of the most powerful emotions we feel that affects our decision making is fear. Im sure everyone can easily anticipate the actions of a fearful person, so we just need to translate that into the chart.
So start watching where are people getting trapped into bad positions? When are they feeling fearful that they made the wrong trade? When are they praying for the market to turn around? These are the traders you want to target because by their nature these are weak traders and likely unprofitable ones, you want to watch for points in the market where these traders know they have got it wrong.. So you should be looking to take the other side of their trades and profit from their mistakes.
The other major aspect of fear you should look for in markets is FOMO. Fear of Missing Out. You see this type of emotion ALL the time in markets, its essentially the market equivalent as when you see people run for the tube / underground as the warning beeps have started and doors are closing... People who have been sat watching the market for a while suddenly see it moving in one direction and start running to enter the trade as quickly as they can... the psychology of this is that they will likely enter with the wrong position size, they haven't analysed the new market conditions that were different from when they were watching the market before, and most importantly their risk management has now gotten out of control. When you see after an already strong price movement that it starts to slow down momentarily and then rockets again in the same original direction - This is typical of FOMO trading. Its wise when you see this to start thinking about places some trades opposite to these traders.
So when people say you should analyse price action - this is the most powerful way to do that. Its not about head and shoulders patterns, its not about doji candles or anything else you hear spoken about... Its simply about human emotions and how they are expressed within the charts.
To be successful you need to start identifying the moments and points in the chart where you know people will buy after you have already brought, or where they will sell after you have already sold.
Risky VIXY falling wedge, as economy future uncertain. I am long on this, but it's best to wait until you can actually see it break some trendlines. This EFT will punish you if you are a long time holder.
With so much uncertainty lately, what better than to take a closer look at the "Fear Index". Garunteed to lose about 20%/year, this fund is only beneficial during times of the market crashing. Basically, the SP500 crashes, this volatility fund goes up. I am keeping an eye on this, as any imminent crash will double/triple this chart. In the meantime, we can see it go lower as expected. Let's look at reasons why it would spike or decrease:
Let's take a look at some destabalizers (reasons this chart should go up), and then reasons the economy might stabalize (reasons for this chart to fall) as well.
Covid - a huge reason we are actually in this mess is the new pandemic gripping the world. Many US businesses have shut down, or stopped operating in the office, and started sending employees home. While many were able to hold onto their employees, the bigger businesses are even starting to let employees go within the next couple months. The smaller companies have already started that trend.
Unemployement- This is real, a growing number of people unemployed collecting benefits. A new stimulus package is certainly underway, however - it is said this could take weeks, and many jobless claims may suffer. This is a perfect driver of the fear index. As time goes on, the unemployment number HAS to have an impact on this economy. There is no way around it. Even if the Fed drives money in, a crash is certain. Just takes one bankruptcy (see 2008). This brings us to my next point:
Covid unemployment benefits: - Normally, a stabalizer, however there is no policy putting this back in place immediately. What happened when congress failed to agree upon/enact a budget in 2008? Crash. Hopefully this won't happen, but as time draws near, this could have a major impact on the performance of the market.
Earnings - This is both a destabalizer as much as it is a stabalizer. Companies (like ATT (T)) are posting good numbers and may continue, however - we cannot ignore that the numbers have been adjusted and are lower due to the pandemic that is occurring now. We are expecting some HUGE companies to post earnings next week, and if they are below expectations, we may see some volatility crank up.
Current market - We can see now, Gold futures are on the rise, SP500 is losing points for the last couple days in a row. Negative Market conditions can and will impact the outlook of the overall market.
Stabilizers:
The Fed - The Fed is pumping money into this economy just like they did when they doubled the Federal Reserve back in 2007, 2008. This leads to a pretty wil impact on the stock market, which is inadvertent because their main focus has been the credit market (if this fails, we're really screwed). So we can see since March, the Federal Reserve Balance sheet has increased quite a bit - almost doubling again, which may be why the market has been performing so well.
Stimulus money - We are also earning some extra income for everyone, and especially the unemployed, receiving an extra $600/week cushion! This really helps out, and his absolutely needed, but this will obviously have a bigger unwanted impact later on. Regardless, for now, this helps stabilize the economy, and the market.
Election year - As was 2008, but you think the sitting president wants to see a market collapse during their term? No. Expect to see as many bailout bills create as possible to avoid or minimize impact, regarless of future impact this will have. Who cares about 3-4 terms from now? As long as the President can keep up the illusion of a stable economy, it will be stable. It's as easy as that. Once people start to react to fear or greed, you can expect this stock to skyrocket.
Why I'm optimistic about the EuroDespite the uncertainty in the markets (Gold and VIX) and the fundamentals (productivity and consumption) indicate a faster recovery in the United States, which theoretically should appreciate the USD, in my opinion the market remains irrational.
But following Keynes' advice "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", I prefer not to take a stand against the market.
The Fear & Greed indicator created by MagicEins, based on CNN's F&G Index is very useful for analyzing market sentiment, we can see that there is still a lot of room to reach the Jan/2020 greed levels.
In the short term we follow the sentiment and the market flow, the CoT shows that the large speculators continue to bet in favor of EUR. The last time speculators were bought on more than 100k contracts was in mid-2018, when EURUSD quote was ~ 1.17.
Another important reason in the short term is the EU summit taking place this weekend, where the EU leaders are edging closer to a deal on a Europe Recovery Fund. This can generate great optimism against the EUR.
Technically we are at an important top and the tendency of the retail trader is selling tops, but as most of these traders are losers in the long run - I will bet against.
Gold / Silver ratio climbs as Covid 19 spreadsChanges in the Gold/Silver ratio indicate changes in the demand for Gold as compared to demand for another precious metal, namely silver. Ratio increases often coincide with accelerations in market volatility and, consequently, money flow to Gold, long considered a "safe haven".
The ratio's climb is approximately linear and the black trend line is consistent with multiple reversals in direction. Some of these are labeled with a news headline from that day.
Limitations and future directions: Headlines were chosen under the working hypothesis that the ratio's climb is largely explained by the spread of the Covid 19 virus. It would be useful to understand the nature and strength of this association. Another direction of inquiry is the association between the ratio and, within the Covid 19 context, other measures of sentinment and volatility (VIX, Real Estate, etc.)
The ratio's increase supports a long position in gold.
TIME TO THINK AT LEAVING FACEBOOK - FB - 30MNFacebook Inc price has been ranging for a while. Now we can observe that has broken some important historical supports.
Different support for different acceleration or slow trend of the market.
The market has been bouncing several times in a uptrend currant to slowly find highs and trending horizontally.
Last week, we have observed a break down of the support and the ranging square. Volumes were very nice as well.
Are share holders feeling the redundancy of Facebook App?
Time to think at leaving Facebook?
😱Types of Fears in Trading😱Link on a good view👇🏻
There are several main types of fear:
💡- fear of losing all capital in the account. One of the most common fears. The trader clearly understands that the numbers in the terminal are his money, and their reduction limits his financial capabilities in the future. Under fear of losing an even larger sum, a market participant does even more stupid things or even refuses to trade;
💡- fear of losing money in a losing position. Similar concerns arise during the transaction period under the influence of strong market volatility. This kind of fear is easily correctable;
💡- fear in time not to see a signal to enter or exit the market. More often it's faced by newcomers, who will not imagine what risks are in the trader’s deals and how to protect themselves from them ;
💡- general fear of working on the market . It can act as a negative background and prevent you from making the right decision. Often, such fears are eliminated by gaining certain knowledge and experience on the exchang e;
💡- fear of receiving another disadvantageous deal. Such fear leads to the appearance of excess fuss. As a result, the trader misses a really good deal;
💡- fear of early fixation of income (fear of loss profit). The position could still be kept open, but the trader reduces his risks, closes the deal and receives less profit. For many market participants, the fear of making such a “mistake” is even stronger than the fear of losing trad es.
SPY - FINALLY SHORT! But don´t be so happy!Hi traders,
we saw BIG SHORT in the SPY market yesterday. I am really happy because my Short trades went into profit, but we still have major S/R levels below the market, that can stop that nice move down!
I am talking about the Value Area that held the price for more than a year. In the middle of this range is PoC that behaves like the magnet.
So that´s probably my final target because the market has a tendency to went back to the fairest price.
I hope you can make profits during this difficult time.
Have good trading,
Jakub
FINEIGHT
VIX SWING LONG TRADE IDEADue to the high volume of superspreader events, this is a long trade. Forecast another outbreak, exponentially worse than our last outbreak, as well as another lockdown.
As 3TUSD was approved by the senate for stimulus relief, it's a safe bet that those in power are preparing for what I dub to be, "The Greater Depression"
As always, I am no financial advisor so happy trading!
-ZM
Hope. 🙏🏻 Fear. 😱 Greed. 🤑 Welcome, guys! 😊Today I wanna talk with you about our feelings and emotions💋💋💋
💥 Fear of falling prices provokes a sell , and the opportunity to lose chance to make monney leads to an unreasonable buy .💥
⚡Such pernicious emotion like greed is a manifestation of the trader’s arrogance and his thirst for a good income as soon as possible, which also provokes the unfoundedness of transactions.🤷🏻♀️
Many psychologists and scientists do a lot of research in the study of human emotions and feelings, the results of which show the ability to control their emotions.
💪🏻 In trading, managing emotions is a very necessary. 💪🏻
Let's consider three seemingly simple emotions on which a trader’s work in the market depends in more detail:
📌Fear
📌Hope
📌Greed
😱 The role of fear in trading 😱
In fact, fear plays a significant role in the market. Fear often deprives the trader of the opportunity to earn money, but also saving him from making fatal decisions. The emotion of fear often serves as a kind of "brake" for the trader.
A frightened trader is obsessed with the adverse aspects of trading. Fear of losing money generates a lot of other negative emotions in your head.
🤑 Trader's greed would destroy. 🤑
Greed is a disastrous and dangerous feeling, especially for a trader. The prevalence of greed rarely can help to achieve the desired result.
It depriving people of the ability to think soberly and objectively. Often, having felt success, a trader wants to earn more and more by making the following mistakes:
❗ Untimely exit from the transaction
❗ Hold position more then you need
❗ Overstatement of risks
🙏🏻 Hope is the last thing to die 🙏🏻
Of all three emotions, most market participants live with hope. This emotion is completely opposite to fear, because its presence affects the positive thinking of the outcome of the trade. In moments of hope, the thinking of market participants is aimed at making profit, not losing it.
People trade in order to achieve success and financial stability, taking income from the market. The circle of such people was divided into optimists and pessimists, absorbed in hope, fear and greed, only to different degrees. One way or another, an overabundance of these emotions can lead to losses . The best option is to find the “golden mean” and learn how to manage your emotions.💪🏻💪🏻💪🏻
😊😊I hope you enjoyed my post, don't forget to support me with like 🌞, subscribe,for don't get lost!💋
Below are links to my previous ideas👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻
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Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣