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Fear

VIX A.K.A. "Fear Index" Future Projection AnalysisCBOE:VIX Why April 23rd and 24th will induce or reduce fear in the market. Checking the United States economic calendar will be clues to the direction of fear in the markets: April 23:: 1) Jobless Claims (Huge deal!) 2) Manufacturing PMI: "A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD." Forecast: 49.2 3) Services PMI: "A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD." Forecast: 39.1 Hopefully its higher. 4) New Home Sales (March): "A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD." Forecast: 750K April 24th:: 1) Core Durable Goods Orders (Ex Transportation): "A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD." Forecast: -6.0% *Good thing this reading excludes aircraft orders* 2) Core Durable oods Orders (w/transportation): Forecast: -0.8% 3) Michian Consumer Expectations: A.K.A. Michigan sentiment index. "A higher than expected number should be taken as positive to the USD, while a lower than expected number as negative. Forecast: 68.0 4) And other indicators too many to list, notably oil and gold.
CBOE:VIX
by investinfamily
VIX divergence - confirmation for SPY LONGGood morning traders, another video regarding the FEAR index - CBOE:VIX . I posted the video yesterday, that contained information about VIX extreme points that are good for finding Lows in the AMEX:SPY Another approach is to search for divergences between SPY and VIX market . If the market is falling down but we have less panic, it is likely to turn around. At the end of the video is the description of what I'm going to look for in VIX when the SPY market starts to pull back. Have good trading, FINEIGHT team
AMEX:SPYLong
by Fineight
"Be greedy when others are fearful" Warren Buffet - SPXLately, I have been feeling quite greedy because I see fear across all markets. I stand by what Warren has to say about the markets. Ask yourself "if 70% of people are bearish for a great depression 2.0 will it happen yet?" Ask yourself "Do I feel fear or greed when others are fearful?" I bet he's buying entire companies right now and you guys are panic selling your retail investments. I have a diagram showing the simple truth about market psychology (smart money vs dumb money) So again ask yourself "Who am I?" Stay safe stay healthy and stay profitable. - Dalin Anderson
TVC:SPXLong
by High_Altitude_Investing
12
dump befor pump :)This route can happen !! In the current situation it can support 4800 lambs and then resist resistance 6950 I predict that later power gain in the 4800-5200 level could break this important resistance. And enter channel 7000, the important resistance of channel 7500 that can emotionally up to 8200 after that we After these steps, everything will be ready for a bigger crash and it can be said that the range of 3300-2600 will not be out of the question. I'm updating the chart to see when the main crash happened And I think the next uptrend is going to be eroding lets see whats will happen fear is every where put stops and be safe trader ;)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by avidena079
Max Fear Incoming This is not trading advice. Merely hypotheses concerning potential trading probabilities. Do your own research. The Macro is bearish. BTC price fell when the Dow Jones Industrial Average recently fell. However, BTC price did not later rise to any substantive extent when the DJI flew up following QE announcements etc. Accordingly, BTC is not, at least not at the moment, a 'safe haven asset'. This is so because the recent downturn heralded a flight from BTC to USD. To make matters worse, the recently announced 'unlimited Quantitative Easing' did not cause BTC to rocket flight from USD to BTC (surprising as perhaps the main quality of BTC is that it is deflationary due to it's 21m coin cap). This is my first post. I made comments to the posts of others iterating that we appear to be looking at a classic Wall Street cheat sheet market cycle, and that neither the 'denial' or 'capitulation' phases had not yet taken place, which if correct, would be a novelty in any complete market cycle. I initially thought denial and capitulation would take place before the end of January 2020. I was wrong. I now think denial and capitulation will take place before the end of April. I may be wrong about that as well. The attached chart (if it loads onto the post) is laden with junk I use when trading. If you do not like it, leave a thumbs down. It is my junk, I like, and a full time trader I do not have time to make charts that make you feel warm and fuzzy. In fact, please leave a thumbs down for this post anyway, because as a contrarian, I would prefer it. The chart, if it loads and posts, shows the overall Macro bearish trend which has not yet been broken. There has been no structural change to the Macro (the down arrow). It also shows (the side arrow) the bull's efforts to break the structure to create the beginnings of a bull Macro (their failed attempt to do so). Finally, the chart shows a lightning symbol pointing to the current downward spiral, which I think will probably continue and lead to the denial and capitulation phases which have not yet taken place. I estimate a non-trivial probability of $4,800 followed by as low as $1,200 during the max fear phase. I intend to swing trade where I can, unless the chop is too savage, and buy at max fear levels. Hope the junk on my chart makes you twitch. Please leave a negative review.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantumfly
4
OFF TO THE RACES - Hope you bought this dipHey there, support this idea with your likes please and make sure to follow me here on TV! Classical ascending triangle on Bitcoin as the most trustable reversal pattern in my opinion. I would now expect a consolidation here between 6k and 7k befor moving higher to 8k+. If we really manage to get to 8k this week, then this will the an amazing reversal engulfing candle on the weekly. Until then, while it is still possible to reverse and move lower, especially short term, I think the low is in with 95% certainty. Accumulating down here is the thing to to people. Even if we move sideways for multiiple weeks and months like we did back in 2014/15, the time to buy is now, when everyone is panic selling and fear is great. Take a look at the Bitcoin-fear-and-greed-index. ALL TIME LOWS Cheers, Konrad
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EnlightenedTrading
GBPJPY short day-tradeI took this entry signal however when the new candle opened price quickly moved down thus changing my SL pips and size. The new calculated size was not the minimum contracts that I can trade -AND- due to the Fear of Missing Out I still entered anyways. I technically forced this setup since it originally met my criteria but I wasn't fast to the gun and the conditions of the situation quickly changed and it suddenly didn't meet my criteria YET I still entered- FOMO. I'll be much better off trading based off of Logic rather than Fear/Emotion when moving forward. I want to learn from this. Not just that I believe I Need to learn from this to become a successful trader.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Bitcoin price is going south so fastWith only factor fear driving the market in these days we cannot expect things to get any better. WHO's reports (World Health Organization) show more new cases each day and as another report shows no vaccine is going to be available soon. As the most developed vaccines are in phase 1 and it's not guaranteed to pass the other phases and even if they do, it takes months to mass produce and ship it to everyone. As long as fear being strong factor, markets will go down and crypto market will act the same as other markets. I personally expect the price to hit 4300$ to 4000$ first and then 3300$ to 3000$.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by arnemati
1
Bitcoin: Channel Compression; A Bullish NarrativeComing off of a parabolic advance to nearly 20,000 US dollar bitcoin's previous move acts as one big pole upward that ultimately leads to a massive multi-year ranging channel. Zoomed out we're essentially inside of one giant bull pennant. We have set consecutive higher lows, and lower highs, meaning the market is compressing. The recent drop in my opinion is likely due to the asian markets selling off everything for survival during a month long quarantine. America followed suit, and cascading liquidations took BTC down into undervalued territory.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by r0me0
3
Corona Crash Fear Index Super VolatileOn a weekly chart, the VIX Volatility Index has surpassed the dotcom crash of 2000 and will in the next week probably surpass 2007/8. Contrary to what Marketwatch.com says, it is not yet higher than in 2008. But it soon will be. Extreme fear is gripping the markets. We shall survive, well probably 95% of us. Deepest respect and prayers go out to anyone affected, take care of your family, friends, and neighbors. The world is going biblical. Massive locust swarms in Africa, huge wildfires in Australia, Disease sweeping the world. WTF. I am going to start building an Arc ready for the frickin flood.
CBOE:VIXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
1
What does a market reaction to the Fed's decision say?Since yesterday, by and large, was the first full day of working out the Fed’s emergency decision to lower the rate by 0.5%, today some results can be summed up. And they are generally disappointing for optimists. In theory, stock markets should have perked up and provoked a sharp increase in stock indices. But this did not happen, that is, there was growth, but not at the scale that could be expected. In theory, the pressure on the dollar should have intensified. But yesterday, the Dollar Index rose. In theory, the Fear Index was to drop significantly. But according to the results of yesterday, the decrease was insignificant. What are all these signals talking about? The magic of Central banks no longer works the way it used to. Lower rates no longer automatically resolve existing problems. And this is a very alarming signal for stock market buyers, gold sellers, and other optimists. It seems that the bubble is nevertheless broken and the air, despite all the efforts of its creators, is gradually coming out. In general, monetary policy has exhausted itself and this is an extremely alarming signal: if the situation worsens, it will not be possible to resolve the situation with the usual methods. The consequences of the coronavirus have not even begun to appear, and Nasdaq is quoted 10% below the maximum and, it seems, can no longer grow with the certainty with which it was literally a couple of weeks ago. So in everything that happens, we see the strongest confirmation of our basic investment ideas: sales on world stock markets, and especially on the US stock market; gold purchases and sales of risky assets (such as the Russian ruble). But back to the events of yesterday, which was very full of news. The Bank of Canada lowered the rate immediately by 0.5%. The Canadian dollar obediently worked this out, losing about 100 points paired with the dollar. But in general, the reaction was relatively calm at such a massive reduction in rates. US employment data from ADP turned out to be quite good: +183K with a forecast of +170K. What sets in a positive mood against the dollar ahead of Friday's official statistics. The ISM Index in the non-productive sphere also pleasantly surprised: 57.3 points with a forecast of 54.8 points. But the Eurozone indices traditionally fell short of expectations and for the most part, came out worse than forecasts. Well, the results of super-Tuesday played into the hands of the dollar, on which Biden won quite unexpectedly, who is considered a more adequate option from the Democrats as opposed to the “left” Sanders. In general, our desire to sell a pair of EURUSD intensified up to the recommendation to sell the pair from the current ones with the addition of any attempt to grow. Oil stocks in the United States have grown quite slightly, but all the attention of oil market participants has been riveted to the OPEC meeting and OPEC+ decisions. It is very likely that today some specific information will appear that could provoke strong movements in the oil market. If OPEC+ decides on additional reductions (ideally about 1 million b/d), oil has a chance of growth. The main stumbling block is Russia and its unwillingness to scale up the reduction.
by Trade24Fx