Trading &/or GamblingThe difference between trading and gambling.
This article will shine a light on the most frequent mistakes that traders make. These mistakes blur the thin line between trading and gambling.
Many people have spoken on this topic, but we truly believe that it is still not sufficient, and traders should be better educated on how to avoid gambling behaviour and emotional outbursts. When we speak about trading versus gambling, we define gambling as the act of making irrational, emotional and quick decisions.
Most of the time, these decisions are based on greed, and sometimes fear of the trader. Let’s dive into the exact problems we have personally experienced thousands of times, and want to help others avoid.
1 ♠ Bad Money Management
This is something that everyone has heard at least once, but seems to naively ignore in the hopes that it is not that important .
It is the most important . When a trader enters trades, it is exceptionally alluring to enter with all of their money, or close to all of it. In gambling terms, that is going “All in”, or “All or nothing”.
As a rule of thumb, both traders and gamblers should only place or bet money that they can afford to lose.
Thankfully, at least in trading one can limit their loss for that specific trade, by placing a stop loss or exiting before total liquidation. In Poker, you can’t fold when you are “All in” and take a portion of your money back. However, that does not mean entering trades with full capital, even with a stop-loss, is going to give you exponential returns and feed your greed for profits.
Traders should enter positions with a small amount of their full capital, to limit the damage from losses. Yes, you also limit the possibility that you win a few trades in a row with all of your money and… There goes the greed we mentioned.
The “globally perfect” percent of equity you need to enter trades to reach that balance between being too cautious and too greedy does not exist. There are methods, like the Kelly Criterion, as described in our previous Idea (see related ideas below), that help you optimize your money management.
Always ask yourself, “How much can I afford to lose?”. Aim for a balanced approach. This way you can position yourself within the market for a long and a good time, not just for a few lucky wins. Greedy money management, or lack thereof, ends in liquidations and heartbreak.
2 ♣ The Use of Leverage
Anyone who has tried using leverage, knows how easy it is to lose your position (or full) capital in seconds. Using leverage is mainly sold to retail traders as a tool for them to loan money from the exchange or broker and bet with it. It is extremely profitable for institutions, since it multiplies the fees you pay them ten to one hundred-fold.
In our opinion, leverage isn’t something that should be entirely avoided. However, it should be limited as much as possible.
We cannot deny that using 1-5x leverage can be beneficial for people with small accounts and a thirst for growth, however as the leverage grows, the more of a gambler you become.
We often see people share profits made using 20+ times leverage. Some even use ridiculous leverages within the range of 50-125x.
If you are doing that, do you truly trust your entry so much that you believe the market won’t move 1% against your decision and liquidate you immediately?
At this point, the gambling aspect should be evident, and it goes without saying that you should not touch this “125x Golden Apple”, like Eve in the Garden of Eden. Especially when you see a snake-exchange promote it.
If you use a low amount of leverage, and grow your account to the point where you don’t need it for your personal goals in terms of monetary profit. You should consider stopping the use of it, and at least know you’ll be able to sleep at night.
3 ♥ Always Being In A Position
Always being either long or short leads to addiction and becomes gambling. While we don’t have scientific proof of that, we can give you our own experience as an example. To be a profitable trader, you do not need to always be in a position, or chase every single move on the market.
You need to develop the ability just to sit back and watch, analyse and make conscious decisions. Let the bad opportunities trick someone else, while you patiently wait for all your pre-defined conditions to give you a real signal.
When you think of trading, remember that the market has a trend the minority (around 20-30%) of the time. If you are always in a position, this means that 70-80% of the time you are hoping that something will happen in your favour. That, by definition, is gambling.
Another aspect, that we have experienced a lot, is that while you remain in a position, especially if you have used leverage, you are constantly paying your exchange fees. You can be in a short position for a week and pay daily fees which only damage your equity, and therefore margin ratio. So why not just sit back, be patient and define some concrete rules for entering and exiting?
Avoid risky situations, and let the market bring the profits whenever it decides to.
4 ♦ Chasing Huge Profits
Hold your horses, Warren Buffett. Through blood, sweat and tears, we can promise you that you cannot seriously expect to make 100% every month, no matter what magical backtesting or statistics you are calculating your future fortune on.
Moreover, you will realise that consistently making 2-5% a month is an excellent career for a trader.
Yes, the markets can be good friends for a while, you may stumble into a bull-run and start making double-digit profits from a trade from time to time. Double-digit losses will also follow if you lose your sight in a cloud of euphoria and greed.
Many times, you can follow the “profit is profit” principle, and exit at a small win if the risk of loss is increasing.
5 ♠ Being Sentimental Towards Given Assets
You may have a fondness for Bitcoin and Tesla, and we understand that because we too have our favourites. Perhaps you’re deeply attached to the vision, community and purpose of certain projects. On the flip side, there may be projects that you completely despise and hope their prices plummet to zero.
What you personally like and dislike, should not interfere with your work as a trader. Introducing such strong emotions into your trading will lead you into a loop of irrational decisions. You may find yourself asking, “Why isn’t this price going parabolic with how good the project is?”.
This sounds, from personal experience, quite similar to sitting at a Roulette table and asking: “Why does it keep landing on red when I’ve been constantly betting black? It has to change any moment now”.
First and foremost, you may be completely wrong, but most importantly – it could go parabolic, but trying to predict the exact time or expecting it to happen immediately and placing your “bet” on that is again, gambling.
Don’t get attached to projects when trading. If you are an investor who just wants to hold their shares in an awesome company, or cryptocurrency, that is perfectly fine, hold them as much as you want.
The key is to make an important distinction between trading and investing, and to base your strategy on the hand that the market provides you with.
6 ♣ Putting Your Eggs In One Basket
We all have heard of diversification, but how you approach it is crucial. A trader should always have their capital spread between at least a few assets. Furthermore, the trading strategy for each asset must be distinct, or in other words – they should not rely on the same entry and exit conditions for different assets.
The markets behave differently for each asset, and you cannot be profitable with some magical indicator or strategy with a “one-size-fits-all” style. Divide your trades into different pairs and asset classes, and study each market individually to properly diversify. Manage the equity you put into each trade carefully!
Conclusion
The takeaway we want you as a reader to have from this article is that trading without consciously controlling your emotions inevitably leads to great loss and most importantly, a lot of stress.
We hate stress. Trading and life in general is exponentially harder when you are under stress. Control your risk, sleep easy, and let the market bring you profits.
Reaching this level of Zen will not be easy, but it is inevitable. Be happy when you make a profit, no matter how small or big. A lot of small profits and proper money management complete the vision you have of a successful business. Ultimately, trading is just that – work, not gambling or a pastime activity. Treat it as work and always remember to never rely on luck.
The advice we’ve included here is written by a few experienced gamblers… Oops, I meant traders 😉.
We hope that some of the lessons we’ve had to painstakingly learn through trial and error can now be shared with those who are interested. Of course, none of this constitutes investment advice. It’s merely a friendly heads-up.
Fearandgreed
S&P 500 Head & Shoulders on the DailyThe SPY (S&P 500 Index) resembles a quite clear Head & Shoulders Pattern which is generally bearish. The daily candle chart shows a right shoulder forming with a rejection from the $445 area. With this rejection and a continuation downwards, we could see a harder fall if this aligns with the left shoulder and follows the pattern.
The other main indices also follow a similar pattern formation and could follow with a market downturn. Watching that $445 level is key to see a confirmation retest and rejection downwards. Following the lower levels, some price targets would first be the neckline as shown on the chart posted. A break below the neckline could result in a fall of the S&P 500 and if following the complete Head & Shoulders we could be seeing a realistic price target of the $410-$420 area.
Other than technicals fundamentals are definitely quite alright for the market as of now. But maybe a little too alright in my opinion. We have seen a market melt up with interest rates still sky-high resulting in more risk-ON investing rather than investing in CD's or Treasuries offering up to 5.5%.
The Greed being shown in this market is definitely visible and is something to keep note of if we break the neckline. Fear & Panic Selling could most definitely occur in this type of situation especially considering the market rally we've seen this summer.
Seasonally the fall has been quite bearish for the markets overall, and as we head into September & October we could see a similar trend to the past, but nothing is sure.
Lastly, in September / October Student Loan Repayments are resuming which could suck out millions if not billions of dollars from the United States economy as young adults chip away at debt and sacrifice spending on goods & services. This will most definitely be a crucial effect on the economy and could send markets downwards.
Keep an eye out for this pattern to play out... Definitely something to watch as we move in to Fall!
Thanks
ETH/USDT multi time frame: up or down?In the weekly time frame, after falling to the sensitive level of $1000 , it has made its corrective move in a rising wedge pattern. As shown in the picture, this corrective movement was accompanied by a decrease in volume
In the daily view, an uptrend has started and the important areas of support and resistance are clear on the chart
All the current upward movement can be displayed in the form of a channel
In the next image, as you can see, after an upward impulse wave, the price inside a downward channel has made its corrective movement and after hitting the main trendline, it has managed to exit the channel.
The channel breaking target is specified
4H: Finally, I imagine two scenarios for ETH that I have specified in the picture. If the support level and the upward trend are maintained , I expect it to touch the $2060 level in the next step
If the current support and the short-term trend line fail , the target will be the long-term trend line range and order block at the level of $1720-1730
Reading your comments makes me happy and motivates me to continue
Thank you so much
Until the VIX breaks this level, it remains range-boundA quick look at our VIX chart shows us that we are range-bound since June. Exactly, as I expected and have stated numerous times in past posts. But now, with the U.S. credit rating downgrade, fear has spiked. Will we break this range and move up? We could, yes. But to do so, we need the VIX to move above that 15.94 level with confirmation. As of today, the VIX can still be technically classified as range-bound at all time 2-year lows. Of course, when the VIX remains low, the market will remain relatively positive. This is bullish.
Stay tuned for further updates here.
Stew
SVXY a volatility ETF play LONGSVXY is the ETF shorting the VIXX ( and UVXY) which pumped hard this past trading
session. It goes up when volatility goes down and vice-vera. VIXX is expected to
drop after the trama in the market starting at 1PM when the Treasuries auctions
were duds with little transactions occurring and the financial data reported in
the late morning. SVXY dropped to its near term lows as the VIXX too off.
SVXY bounced above the long term anchored mean black VWAP line which provides
a logical stop loss at 85.65. The relative trend indicator shows the dip and early
recovery while the RS indicator shows low and high time frame lines bottoming
and reversing with the low blue line above the higher black time frame line.
I see this as a long trade setup targeting the pivot highs in the near left of the
price trend or about 90.5, A similar trade would be to short UVXY in a trend down.
A clear Sign That USD has bottomed out and a rise is imminent USD has seen it its bottom from 114 to 102.88 region sice last few months.
owing to the fundamental development and lastest trends in macro economics , the first safety flight was Gold which rose to 2010 usd before a decline. The rise in USD has started in my opinion and it can be seen that it will rise to 105-106 levels in the come days
Price Entry - 102.88-103
SL -100.69
TP - 105
best of luck
This is why I wait for 3 confirmation candles on the daily!Traders,
At times, during the last week, it looked as if our Cup and Handle pattern was going to be legitimized. However, caution was admonished. We had not yet seen 3 candle closes above our neckline on the daily which would have allowed for the safest entry. Though, we played around above the neckline for over a week, the break was never confirmed with 3 solid price closes above the neckline on the daily. This provides valuable teaching material for us all to observe and learn from going forward. I will review price history and show you what I needed to see for solid confirmation.
I will also review the four charts I was observing this past week.
And finally, I will show you what the picture now is looking like going forward.
Stew
THE FEAR & GREED INDEX: GRADUALLY RISING.Fear & Greed Index:
The F&G Index has come up to a neutral state. This shows that people's sentiment toward the crypto market is changing. Currently, there is neither too much fear nor too much greed in the market meaning, there is a decisive move, where traders are not sure whether to go long or short. I shared about the F&G index a long time back when F&G was in the extreme fear zone and there I mentioned that the F&G index will eventually turn its indicator towards fear, neutral, greed, and then extreme greed. So far we have reached the neutral zone so it is good.
I hope this update was helpful for you all. Thank you for reading and trade safely.
I think Bitcoin's bottom is inHello.
We can see RSI has broken its ~1 year downtrending trendline from feb 2021 on 3D ( also on daily and weekly ). Tells about possible trend change .
Double top from 69k and head and shoulders targets hasn't been able to met. ( Not enough sellers? )
Price was pressured down with 25EMA (yellow line highlighted with red arrows), and has broke it now.
18 500 is a strong resistance. If Bitcoin breaks 18 500 and stay on top of it, for me this FTX panic drop was to shake people out and trick them to wait for "lower prices"
Market sentiment has been really negative for a long time and people have been waiting for 14, 12 and 10k so we probably won't even get there.
Also there has been many news again how crypto is dead etc etc
DJI + Indicators Vs NDQ Vs BitcoinHi Investors & Traders
Although this is a chart of the Dow, it will mainly focus on the interactions of Bitcoin with the Dow and the Nasdaq.
I'm taking a slightly different look at the market here with this chart. This is the monthly chart of the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Bitcoin, but the 4 indicators on the bottom are corresponding of the Dow. The four indicators as follows...
STOCHASTIC RSI
FEAR AND GREED
CM ULTIMATE MACD
CM ULTIMATE RSI
In this chart we can really see the parabolic growth of Bitcoin especially against the Nasdac and the almighty Dow Jones. Way back in 2017 the markets were in a rally non bigger than Bitcoin, and as we can see it Pierced through the Nasdaq and was pretty much met as resistance by Dow with a fairly strong rejection from it. It then found some support off the Nasdaq but it ultimately fell through and bottomed out. The next move to re pierce the Nasdaq and it co mingled with it for about one and half years before it inevitable broke out above it and met with the Dow Jones and went on to pierce it as well. Bitcoin then corrected right back to the Dow as support for months into it's second attempt to another break out f new highs @ 69k. Not long after Bitcoin once again falls to the Dow as support once more, makes a small move and then plunges with the rest of the markets and goes down bellow the Dow as similarly did with the Nasdac back in 2018. Comparing to the Nasdaq drop of 2018 Bitcoin fell 51% under. This year in 2022 it has fallen about 56% under the Dow. At 5% more is this enough to call it a bottom? I guess we will see in due time.
The good news
3 out of the 4 indicators are showing signs of recovery for the Dow with only the MacD not crossing yet. As we can clearly see in the recent history of a decade these indices tend to move together with the Dow leading the way. The thing is market sentiment can switch on a dime. Waiting for the MacD cross is still not a guarantee of new highs but it lowers the downward risk just bit more.
Bitcoin and it's interaction with the Dow going forward will be very important in my opinion s I think it might have a tough time passing and the Dow. I will most likely mingle and battle with the Dow for a few years before it can eventually break above and make it support. Then and only then should the next parabolic move from Bitcoin will follow.
Update
I also added the SPX just for good measure. We can see that Bitcoin did have a small interaction with it for 3 months before it ultimately broke above and then dropped within 26% at the bottom in 2018. Comparing the Bitcoin drop of the SPX to the Nasdaq is 28% this year, only 2% off, fairly close so far.... But is it over?
I don't normally include so many indicators but to get a good indication without making many charts I though it would be necessary to gauge the market from Dow with multiple angles. I want to add that bitcoin could interact with these indices for a long time or permanently for all we know at this point.
Thanks for viewing
leave comments and or questions down below
WeAreSat0shi
MOST DANGEROUS TRADING TRAIT!Most people talk about Fear and Greed being the barometers to failure...
I think there is an underlying trait that is far superior which leads to ultimate account catastrophe.
EGO.
They just want to be right or they will have a hissy fit.
They refuse to take a loss...
They refuse to accept that the market is moving against you.
They find ways to disagree with the market which gets them committing moe.
They move their stop loss away further away - which means they risk more.
Rinse and repeat - GONE.
Cut out your ego or the markets will cut you out. Simple.
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
The fearless minds of strong men!Through out history men have done great things, so great that some are still not understood today in our modern advanced world. We tend to think they had less then us, (most likely true) maybe that's what made them great, the will to reach new heights. It's the unknown that they reached for for fearlessly. Most of the time reaching for nothing or too high. Through virtue and passing knowledge to one another while working together the steps to greatness have been achieved over time.
In our modern world many things have changed but our senses remain the same. Fear still has the same effect on us, it makes us do irrational things. Decisions made under emotional distress has always led to the same results through out eternity.
Another quality these men had was to go where others had not or dared not. Once again fear, fear of the unknown. Travelling the path less travelled. If the path is less travelled than by default there is more new things or ideas to discover.
Having said all of this about conquering your fear and being bold, another thing all these great men had in common was preparation, organization and contingency plans with alternate strategies. Preparation and plans are tools to control your fears and emotions.
This brings us to to Aristotle. Arguable one the greatest teachers of all time. He said "We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." So... making small gains in investing is the longer march to victory. He also said "those who know, do. Those who understand teach." Aristotle taught Alexander on a face to face basis for approximately 7 years. Alexander then went out to find his destiny saying, "There is nothing impossible to him who will try."
On to Julius Caesar and his famed glory, he always looked to match Alexander. Some of His famous quotes are "Without training, they lacked knowledge, without knowledge, they lacked confidence, without confidence, the lacked victory." Once again, preparation... with that preparation he was then led to say another famous quote, "I came, I saw, I conquered."
Trading view understands this as well and they have the same outlook. "Look, then leap." This a climbing the mountain outlook. At the end of the day it's the same thing. Investing is very similar to preparing for battle or for a difficult climb. Investors are both your allies and enemies just like the terrain on a climb or the battle field . It's up to you to figure out and know when to push and when to retreat.
Looking back at history can be insightful to say the least. When we look at charts we are looking at what has past before and look for the similar patterns. This too is not new knowledge (history repeating) it's age old information but a lot of people today are blind to it. King Salomon quote in ecclesiastic eludes to just this. "What has been is what will be, and what has been done is what will be done, and there is nothing new under the sun." History is cyclical it always comes back around in some form or another. Another great quote from Salomon is " words kill, words give life, they're either poison or fruit... You choose."
I have added the CM_Williams_VIX to the chart. On the monthly it has done some interesting patterns in the past, take a look.
So... Choose your destiny, it's up to you. What ever road you choose... be blessed, if not one way, another, and always make the best of what comes your way.
Thanks for looking
WeAreSat0shi
Stay Blessed!
Trading-Psychology: Fear & GreedFear & Greed
Trading psychology is different for each trader, and it is influenced by the trader’s emotions and biases. The two main emotions that are likely to impact the success or failure of a trade are greed or fear.
Greed is defined as the excessive desire for profits that could affect the rationality and judgment of a trader. A greed-inspired trade may involve buying stocks of untested companies because they are on the rise or buying shares of a company without understanding the underlying investment.
Greed can also make a trader stay in a position for too long in an attempt to squeeze every event out of the trade. It is common at the end of a bull market when traders attempt to take on risky and speculative positions to profit from the market movements.
On the other hand, fear is the opposite of greed and the reason why people exit a trade prematurely or refrain from taking on risky positions due to concerns of incurring losses. Fear makes investors act irrationally as they rush to exit the trade. It is common during bear markets, and it is characterized by significant selloffs from panic-selling.
Fear and greed play an important role in a trader’s overall strategy and understanding how to control the emotions is essential in becoming a successful trader.
Trading-Psychology: Fear & GreedFear & Greed
Trading psychology is different for each trader, and it is influenced by the trader’s emotions and biases. The two main emotions that are likely to impact the success or failure of a trade are greed or fear.
Greed is defined as the excessive desire for profits that could affect the rationality and judgment of a trader. A greed-inspired trade may involve buying stocks of untested companies because they are on the rise or buying shares of a company without understanding the underlying investment.
Greed can also make a trader stay in a position for too long in an attempt to squeeze every event out of the trade. It is common at the end of a bull market when traders attempt to take on risky and speculative positions to profit from the market movements.
On the other hand, fear is the opposite of greed and the reason why people exit a trade prematurely or refrain from taking on risky positions due to concerns of incurring losses. Fear makes investors act irrationally as they rush to exit the trade. It is common during bear markets, and it is characterized by significant selloffs from panic-selling.
Fear and greed play an important role in a trader’s overall strategy and understanding how to control the emotions is essential in becoming a successful trader.
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 29.09 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 29.09 🤖
TLDR:
Short-Term (-1 Day)
70:30- Bullish:Bearish
Mid-Term (1 Week+)
40:60
Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term (1 Month+)
60:40 - Bullish:Bearish
OVERVIEW:
All things looking relatively bullish over the next day or so for BTC - there is still some significant resistance to get through at $20.5k region with long term trendlines and high resistances volume. September close is notoriously bearish, so I still expect this to ring true. Expecting some very heavy volatility tomorrow with the options expiration. Ultimately my general thoughts are that we are going to track up to about $20.5k and then have a very heavy retracement from there - this could well extend well below $19k back to the $18.7k support. We are nearing the end of this daily Descending triangle so a big move is expected out of that, they are a a pretty bearish pattern and the weekly descending wedge also suggests that a $16k is still on the cards without invalidating the pattern. So in a nutshell don't commit too heavy to longs rn , we still need to break this 20DEMA in order to get any where and losing $19.1k and the 200EMA on the 1hr will likely see the start of the downward movement.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
+BULLISH FACTORS:
+ Low overhead Volume to $20.5k
+ Flipped VWAP
+ FLIPPED 200 EMA 1H
+ Holding Daily Support
+ Bullish Divergence on the Daily
+ Descending Wedge on the Weekly
+ Volume is consolidating for breakout
BEARISH FACTORS:
- 20 DEMA proving tough resistance
- Overbought Rejection on Local Resistance
- Descending Triangle on the Daily
+ Local trendline resistance
NEWS:
Bull:
+ Senator Lummis calls out U.S. leaders to welcome Bitcoin as it ‘can’t be stopped’
+🇦🇪 UAE's Ministry of Economy opens headquarters in the #metaverse.
+ UK investors turn to Bitcoin as GBP weakens, new data shows
cryptopanic.com
Bear:
- Gary Gensler Speaking today
Volatility
* Powell speaking today at 3.15pm UK time
* Options expiration on tomorrow
MARKET SENTIMENT:
Fear & Greed Index - Sep 28, 2022:
Today: 20 (Extreme Fear)
Yesterday: 20 (Extreme Fear)
Avg. 1W: 22 😱
Avg. 2W: 22 😱
Avg. 1M: 23 😱
Avg. 2M: 28 😱
Avg. 3M: 27 😱
Avg. 6M: 23 😱
Avg. 1Y: 32 😣
🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $19,116
24h Low: $18,903
24h High: $20,339
MC Change: -$1.2B (-0.3%)
Dominance: 37.7%
24h: -0.4%
7d: -2.3%
14d: -14.4%
30d: -4.8%
60d: -19.8%
200d: -51.6%
1y: -55.9%
$BTC #BTC @bitcoin #bitcoin
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 20.09 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 20.09 🤖
TLDR:
Short-Term (-1 Day)
30:70- Bullish:Bearish
Mid-Term (1 Week+)
65:35
Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term (1 Month+)
70:30 - Bullish:Bearish
OVERVIEW:
There are a lot of bullish metrics popping up - although the majority of this weeks movement is going to be dictated by the interest rates on Weds. Is it going to be 75 or is it going to be 100. Ultimately 75 would be deemed somewhat bullish. 100 will absolutely sink the market - 50 would send it potentially to the moon although that is EXTREMELY unlikely, so don't get your hopes up.
From a completely TA point of view there is quite a lot of the bullish sentiment gearing up for quite a big pump - this coupled with a high expectation of 82% 75 would suggest that a bullish close to the week is on the cards. Expecting a slight bearish close to the day leading into tomorrow with approx target of 18.7k where we could potentially see it hold and consolidate (most likely) and bounce from there to approx. $19.8 (The bottom of the weekly pivot) We are back below the 200EMA which has been a significant resistance although I do have a fair bit of conviction in the Inverse H/S.
Losing the support at $18.7k could see a bit of a free fall to $18.2k and depending on the bearish volume taking out the support and buys then on to $17.6k although I think this will indicate some potential inside information about the interest rates being leaked. There fore shorting would not be bad idea up on losing $18.7k.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
BULLISH FACTORS:
+ TD8 formed on the daily
+ Strong daily candle rejection
+ Approaching bottom of descending wedge on the Weekly
+ On Macro trendline support on the Weekly
+ Unconfirmed Divergence on the Weekly
Support
+ Contrarian Reversal on the Weekly
+ Bullish Divergence on the Daily
+ Very bullish weekly pivot at 19.8k to 20.5k
+ Loose bullish H/S pattern in play
+ Strong buy orders at 18.8k
+ ABCD Harmonic on the 5min
+ Entering Oversold on the 1hr
+ Currently holding the future pivot support
+ Descending broadening wedge
BEARISH FACTORS:
- Bearish Daily POC at $18.4k
- Broken Local support at $19.2k
- Bearish Divergence on the 5min
- Trading under the key DEMA's
NEWS:
Bull:
+ 75 BPS expected for Wednesday announcement which is not positive but "relatively" good for BTC
+ NASDAQ announced plans for a for bitcoin custody
+ Ripple Says XRP Owners Have no Rights or Contract So Token is Not A Security
cryptopanic.com
+ #Binance has been granted a Minimal Viable Product license in Dubai.
+ CFTC commissioner visits Ripple offices as decision in SEC case looms
cryptopanic.com
Bear:
- MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 301 #Bitcoin ($5.7 million). (Always causes market to dump)
- Wintermute Loses $160M in Latest DeFi Hack
cryptopanic.com
- The Search For Do Kwon Intensifies As South Korean Prosecutors Ask Interpol To Issue Red Notice Against The Terraform Labs
- SEC claims all Ethereum transactions fall under US jurisdiction because the nodes are "clustered more de… t.co
- Indian crypto exchange CoinDCX's Twitter account has been hacked to post $XRP scam links.
- Crypto promoter Ian Balina labels SEC charge ‘frivolous’, turns down settlement
cryptopanic.com
MARKET SENTIMENT:
Fear & Greed Index - Sep 20, 2022:
Today: 23 (Extreme Fear)
Yesterday: 21 (Extreme Fear)
Avg. 1W: 24 😱
Avg. 2W: 25 😱
Avg. 1M: 25 😱
Avg. 2M: 30 😱
Avg. 3M: 26 😱
Avg. 6M: 24 😱
Avg. 1Y: 32 😣
🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $19,549
24h Low: $18,421
24h High: $19,612
MC Change: $1.9B (0.5%)
Dominance: 38.0%
24h: 0.6%
7d: -10.1%
14d: -2.2%
30d: -6.7%
60d: -16.1%
200d: -55.6%
1y: -59.5%
🤖 #BTCLIVE - 13.09 🤖🤖 #BTCLIVE - 13.09 🤖
TLDR:
Short-Term (-1 Day)
50:50- Bullish:Bearish
Mid-Term (1 Week+)
35:65
Bullish:Bearish
Long-Term (1 Month+)
90:10 - Bullish:Bearish
OVERVIEW:
Bitcoin showing strength although some big bear flags showing up with the ascending wedge, bearish weekly pivot and CME gap that have a high chance always of getting filled usually in the short term too. Additionally we are coming up to the Macro trendline resistance on the weekly which is going to be a huge marker if we breakout as it has been in place since November 2021. It is a likely a very large amount of volume is going to require to break out. This is possible depending on the CPI data that drops which is potential assumed to be bullish. This could help break out - although there is a lot of bearish factors weighing against it for at least a small retrace.
Losing $22.2k would likely see a continuation down to the CME gap and weekly pivot regions with a top of $21.5k and a painful scenario at $20.2k. A bullish scenario would need to breakout above $23k for a good confirmation then it can pump as high as $25k.
HOWEVER with all the news that is coming out this month with the merge, MT.Gox and multiple items in the economic calendar volatility is going to be high
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
BULLISH FACTORS:
+ Bullish Descending wedge on the Weekly
+ Oversold on the Weekly
+ Reversal signal on the Weekly
+ Hidden Divergence on the 1hr
+ Potential breakout incoming of the macro descending wedge
BEARISH FACTORS:
- Bearish untested Weekly Pivot and CME Gap as low as $20.2k up to $21.5k
- Challenging Macro Trendline Resistance on the Weekly
- Hitting key 22.6k resistance
- Crossing down on HullMA
- Rising wedge
NEWS:
Bull:
+ CPI data expected to be slightly positive
+ Fidelity rumoured to be shifting their retail customers in to Crypto soon
+ Russia's Prime Minister asks regulators to finalize regulations for cross-border #crypto payments.
+ Chamber Of Digital Commerce Calls Out The SEC, Argues The US Needs A Bitcoin ETF
cryptopanic.com
+ Google Adds Ethereum (ETH) Merge Countdown Feature as Worldwide Interest Skyrockets
cryptopanic.com
Bear:
- Sept 13: CPI data
- Sept 15: $ETH merge expected sell off
- Sept 16: Mt. Gox Claims Deadline
- Sept 21: FOMC rate hike decision
- Sept 22: $ADA Vasil Hardfork
- New White House Report Suggests A Ban On Bitcoin Mining In The U.S.
cryptopanic.com
MARKET SENTIMENT:
Fear & Greed Index - Sep 13, 2022:
Today: 34 (Fear)
Yesterday: 25 (Extreme Fear)
Avg. 1W: 26 😱
Avg. 2W: 24 😱
Avg. 1M: 27 😱
Avg. 2M: 30 😱
Avg. 3M: 25 😱
Avg. 6M: 24 😱
Avg. 1Y: 32 😣
🔸 #Bitcoin
Price: $22,336
24h Low: $21,578
24h High: $22,448
MC Change: $11.4B (2.7%)
Dominance: 38.5%
24h: 2.7%
7d: 11.8%
14d: 13.6%
30d: -8.5%
60d: 10.4%
200d: -40.2%
1y: -50.6%