Knock, Knock, who’s there??? Volatility rise!! 📈 Long on UVXYHi fellows, as many of us expecting stock market correction on main indicies, finally there are some signs of rising volatility in near future. Yesterday strong rebound of TVC:VIX is some fresh air in my face :)
AMEX:UVXY is one of instruments you can participate on rising volatility or hedge your portfolio in risk off days. Today and next few days will be risk off very likely.
So here is my idea.
Yesterday price action on AMEX:UVXY was pretty strong. Its rebounded from strong supply area 10.20-10.60 and bounce back to rising trendline. Now sitting at key support 11.05. You can see rebound is supported by very clear defined divergence on long term CCI indicator.
Here is my trade:
------------------------Trade setup ---------------------------
Entry: 11.05
Stop Loss: 10.77
Profit target: 12.22
Time stop: 5 days
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Fearindex
VIX: Hit the Trade War highs. Cyclical decline starting.The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) which measures the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility, has almost hit last Friday the highs (50.30) of the U.S. - China trade war in
February 2018. Going further back on the time line, the 53.30 high of VIX during China's economic slowdown fears in late August 2015, isn't far off either.
Today's lower opening was a natural response but even then the index remains overbought (RSI = 80.163) and when it does it is historically unlikely to stay that high for low. We are expecting a strong decline back to the ease levels of 12.75 - 13.30 in around 2 months. As you see on the chart and the last two highs, this is a cyclical process of VIX and the occurence of the next shock event can even be timed. Regardless of timing, the current VIX levels present an optimal sell opportunity.
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