Conviction: 4/5 This is one of the two breakouts that we've been waiting for since May 2021. Buy on dip (possible retested yesterday already) on the horizontal dash line around 31.81. Need to wait for breakout of resistance line since August 2020 to fully confirm breakout. However, Gold seems to have already broken out... so seems like just a matter of time.
Conviction: 4/5 Long-term cup and handle since 2011, looks like ready for completion However, in the short term, price is forming pennant. Currently at support of pennant, could be good entry point. To be more prudent, should probably wait until confirmation of breakout from top of pennant to enter. Considerations Rising yield => rising real yield =>...
Conviction: 3/5 Seems to be turning down away from LT (2002) channel resistance. RSI-W also signaling further downside. Looks like there might be an intermediate-term support around -10% away. All in all.. may be a better risk:reward trade once it breaks down from the white support line. Either way, the trend looks negative. If you are interested in Europe,...
Conviction: 3/5 Overall still in LT (2009) down channel, so trade is quite risky... you are trading against the trend... HOWEVER: bounced off MT (2018) trend support RSI looks pretty good SPY ourperformance against world is pretty outrageous in the last 2 years, so some mean-reversion is likely Trade duration... 3-5 months. Much better trade is to...
Unclear what is going to happen... probably not a good idea to trade this right now. Can trade small position within the channel, although risky to trade against the trend... Bull case: potential bull flag setup good relative value (in terms of performance) to S&P 500 holding peak-price support from 2017 so far better to wait for confirmation of bull...
Conviction: 3/5 Hovering / bouncing off medium-term (2018) parallel channel support Hovering / bouncing off short-term (2020) price level support RSI-D looks like it is bouncing off from oversold levels RSI-W approaching oversold levels Risks V expensive relative to own history, does not bode well for Long-term Returns Expensive relative to market...
Conviction: 3/5 in upward channel, near bottom Recently retested MT downtrend resistance-turned-support (2009, 2006) Cheap relative to market but low growth and low margin Risks RSI-W not quite at oversold levels, this means we could continue to hug the trendline down towards support of parallel channel negative FCF About average (possibly...
Neutral for now, but long-term looks like UK is set to outperform Eurozone Better to wait for confirmation! Either way, UK (EWU) is looking somewhat promising as well.
Conviction: 3/5 Better to wait until we break above downtrend resistance line, but overall looks strong seemed to bounce off 100WMA RSI-W at historical buy points bounced off (for now) 50% retracement RISKS Very expensive relative to historical trend
Conviction: 3/5 retesting MT (2016) support RSI-W at oversold levels with possible bullish divergence Growth is still good P/S levels pretty reasonable Risks support was broken in 2020 Short history, does not cover last recession negative FCF slightly below historical equilibrium zone
Conviction: 4/5 Thesis at former resistance-turned-support (2008 peak) near channel (2016) support very cheap (P/S of 0.67), although more expensive relative to own history RSI-W not overbought at all RSI-D showing possible bullish div Risks balance sheet is a bit weak (low quick ratio)
Conviction: 3/5 Bouncing around channel since end of 2018 RSI-W at oversold levels, although another leg down for bullish divergence is not out of the question Still relative expensive... especially at a time when investors value value
Conviction: 5/5 Retesting LT channel support (2000) Retesting previous downtrend resistance-turned-support. RSI-D showing really strong bullish divergence. RISK: what will fed raising rates do? unlikely to be good?
Conviction: 3/5 Still bouncing around in (what seems to be) a bull-flag. How hovering at a strong support level (2014). At least a good trade until top of flag channel, although I think (pure personal opinion) that silver has potential to reach ~$50 level if elliott wave OR bull flag is correct. For this to be confirmed, should wait until prices break above...
Conviction: 4/5 Silver also seems to be finding a bottom / multiple touches on support. Bounced off MT (2016) support as well. RSI-D showing bullish divergence.
Conviction: 4/5 Main Risk: Riding top of channel since inception (2004) Quite expensive P/S of 8.5 relative to S&P500 of about 3 Thesis: Seems to be trading in range since surge in 1/2 half of 2020, now at the bottom of range in the last year. RSI-W at very attractive levels. Trading between 100WMA and 200WMA and have never gone below 200WMA after recession of...
Conviction: 3/5 A confluence of supports (2013, 2014, support level from 2018) hopefully will create a support zone that allows the stork price to move up again. RSI-W at oversold (and historical bounce) level. P/S ratio is at historically low while margins and growth still seem pretty strong. Main risk... history does not capture 2008 recession.
Conviction: 4/5 Value looks ripe for long-term out-performance against Growth stocks (Russell 1000 Value vs Russell 1000 Growth) Just put in double bottom, similar to what happened in 2000 peak. HOWEVER, this is bad for general markets, as most of the out-performance that happened last time in 2000 was due to Value GOING DOWN LESS than Growth... RISKS, the...