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USDCHF Correction Due To Produce A Reversal Pattern?OANDA:USDCHF has been in a Correction Wave since the beginning of January and we now see that Price may have finally found Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level of the Correction Wave. With both Lows in March finding Support at the 1.809 Fibonacci Extension Level, Price is beginning to form what looks like a Reversal Pattern, the Double Bottom! ** Confirmation of Pattern will come when Price Breaks and Closes Above .8863, then we will be looking for a Long Opportunity to present itself as a Break and Retest Set-Up. The Retest will Validate the Trade Idea! If we take the height of the Pattern and apply it to the Break of Confirmation, this puts the Potential Target at Previous Area of Support of the Correction Wave ( Point A ) in the .8975 area. Fundamentals seem to Support the Bullish Idea with: SNB Cutting Interest Rates by 25 Basis points from .5% to .25% FED Holding Interest Rates @ 4.5% due to "Economic Uncertainty" Unemployment Claims for USD came in as expected with no surprise and even 1K below Forecast ( Actual 223K / Forecast 224K ) Also Positive Outlook from Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Existing Home Sales see USD rise. Next Weeks Final GDP on Thursday, March 27th will be the next big News Event to bring some light to how the economy is doing and if USD will continue strengthening!
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
DAX Trade Log DAX Buy Setup with Ichimoku Confluence Geopolitical tensions—especially the ongoing conflict in Eastern Europe—continue to influence risk sentiment, while inflation and central bank policy remain in the spotlight. The European Central Bank’s more hawkish stance contrasts with fears of slowing growth in the Eurozone. Despite these headwinds, the DAX could see a near-term bounce, supported by technical signals: 1. Ichimoku Confluence : Price is testing the Kijun and the lower edge of the cloud, aligning with a daily pivot. A close back above the Kijun/cloud area suggests potential upside. 2. Volume Spike : Recent volume surge around this support zone may indicate bullish absorption—watch for follow-through. 3. Macro Backdrop : Although persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainties loom large, short-term volatility can present trading opportunities. Keep an eye on ECB communications and any unexpected developments in global tensions. 4. Risk Management : A 120-point SL (around 2% account risk) below the key support could help protect against false breaks. Targets include the top of the cloud or previous swing highs. 5. 8-Day Cycle : Day 2 in your cycle analysis suggests a potential upswing—confirmation will come if price holds above this confluence zone. Stay vigilant, monitor news flow, and maintain discipline in your trading plan. This is not financial advice—always do your own due diligence.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by Fondera
USD/CAD: Rebound Above 1.4265 or Imminent Drop?📊 Market Context The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown recent volatility with a significant surge followed by a retracement phase. The market is reacting to expectations regarding decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC), as well as fluctuations in oil prices, a key factor for the Canadian dollar. 🔍 Technical Analysis The chart analysis highlights the following key levels: Main Resistance: 1.4521 → Located in the upper zone of the chart, this level could act as a barrier to further bullish movements. Key Supports: 1.4333 - 1.4265 - 1.4239 → These levels have previously acted as bounce points and could provide a base for price recovery. Market Structure: The price reacted with a strong green candle after testing the lower support area, followed by a correction phase. Bullish Momentum: If the price holds above 1.4265, it could attempt another push towards 1.4521. 📌 Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price remains above 1.4265, we could see another push towards 1.45 and beyond. 📌 Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.4239 could trigger a sharper decline towards the 1.41 - 1.40 range. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis Federal Reserve: The Fed is assessing the impact of its monetary policies, with markets speculating on a potential rate cut by mid-year. Bank of Canada: The BoC maintains a cautious approach, monitoring inflation and the labor market. Oil Prices: The CAD is correlated with oil prices, so an increase in crude oil could strengthen the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD lower. 🎯 Conclusion Main Bias: Bullish above 1.4265, targeting 1.45. Trend Invalidation: Below 1.4239, a potential downward correction could occur.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Ultimate summary of Powell’s comments today As expected, Powell reiterated that the Fed is in no rush to adjust rates, and the labour market is stable. He also reaffirmed the Fed’s reliance on hard data over sentiment and the approach of slowing balance sheet reduction. What’s different this time: Inflation & tariffs: Powell acknowledged that recent inflation upticks may be tariff-driven, delaying progress toward price stability. The Fed’s base case assumes tariff inflation is temporary. Economic sentiment: Consumer sentiment has weakened, partly due to Trump policy changes, and concerns over inflation are growing. Recession risk: Forecasts now lean toward weaker growth and higher inflation, with recession risks slightly elevated but still not high.
BLACKBULL:SPX500
by BlackBull_Markets
USD/JPY Direction 151 After the BoJ📊 Market Context As of March 18, 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate stands around 149.38, reaching its highest level since March 5. This movement is driven by expectations regarding upcoming monetary policy decisions from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve. 🔍 Technical Analysis The technical analysis of USD/JPY highlights the following key points: Current Trend: USD/JPY shows a moderate recovery, with a 0.49% increase on March 17. Key Resistance: The area between 150.00 and 151.00 represents a significant resistance level. A decisive breakout above this zone could pave the way for further gains. Important Supports: Support levels are found at 148.00 and 146.50. A drop below these levels could indicate a deeper correction. Technical Indicators: Moving averages and key oscillators suggest a short-term bullish trend. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis Several fundamental factors are influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate: BoJ Decision: The Bank of Japan recently raised its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, citing higher wages and rising inflation. However, for today's meeting, the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the impact of global trade tensions on the Japanese economy. U.S. Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates stable in the upcoming meeting, with the Fed Funds rate projected to remain between 4.25% and 4.5%. Trade Tensions: U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration are creating economic uncertainties, influencing central bank decisions and currency markets. 🎯 Conclusion USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase near recent highs. If the BoJ maintains an accommodative monetary policy and the Fed keeps rates stable, the dollar could continue strengthening against the yen, targeting the key resistance level of 151.00. However, uncertainties related to trade tensions and future central bank actions require close monitoring by investors.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
2
EUR/USD Direction 1.10 - Technical and Fundamental Analysis📊 Market Context As of March 18, 2025, EUR/USD is in a strong bullish expansion phase, with the price testing significant resistance levels. The US dollar remains solid, but market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve and the ECB, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policies in the coming months. 🔍 Technical Analysis The chart analysis reveals a bullish trend with the following key points: Main Resistance: 1.0912 - 1.10 area (potential reversal zone highlighted in red on the chart). Key Supports: 1.0822 (former resistance now acting as support), 1.0360, and 1.0283 (deeper support levels highlighted in yellow). Market Structure: The price has tested the monthly resistance around 1.0912 and entered a potential reversal zone where significant price reactions are expected. Bullish Momentum: The trend shows strong bullish candles, indicating a possible continuation toward 1.10. 📌 Possible Scenario: If EUR/USD decisively breaks 1.0912 and closes above 1.10, there could be room for a further rally toward 1.12. 📌 Alternative Scenario: A rejection at resistance and a close below 1.0822 could trigger a bearish correction toward 1.0360. 🌍 Fundamental Analysis US Data: Consumer confidence in the United States has dropped to its lowest level since November 2022, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by June. Monetary Policy: The ECB is maintaining a more neutral stance, while the Fed may be forced to cut rates faster to support the economy. Capital Flow: The market is anticipating US dollar weakness due to the outlook for rate cuts, supporting a possible euro appreciation. 🎯 Conclusion Main Bias: Bullish above 1.0822, targeting 1.10 and beyond. Trend Invalidation: Below 1.0360, the bullish trend would weaken. EUR/USD could consolidate in this area before breaking above 1.10. The future direction will depend on upcoming central bank statements and macroeconomic data.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!) - Key Levels and Market Outlook 📌 Market Structure 🔹 Key Support Zone (~19,170 USD) The price recently bounced off this level, which has acted as a significant support area. The highlighted gray-blue zone represents a demand area where buyers stepped in. 🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~19,800 - 20,200 USD) The price is currently testing this zone, which was previously a key breakdown area. A strong rejection here could push the index back towards the 19,170 USD support. 🔹 Major Supply Zone (~21,500 - 22,400 USD) The previous peak around 22,400 USD saw strong selling pressure, leading to a sharp drop. The red-shaded area represents a heavy supply zone where sellers were dominant. 📉 Bearish Scenario A rejection at 19,800 - 20,200 USD could lead to another retest of 19,170 USD. A break below 19,170 USD would expose the index to further downside, possibly towards 18,500 - 18,200 USD. 📈 Bullish Scenario A break and close above 19,800 - 20,200 USD could trigger a move towards 21,000 - 21,500 USD. A sustained breakout above 22,400 USD would invalidate the bearish structure and signal a continuation of the uptrend. 🔎 Conclusion: The Nasdaq is at a pivotal moment, hovering around key resistance at 19,800 - 20,200 USD. A breakout or rejection from this zone will determine the short-term direction. Key factors to watch include economic data, Fed policy, and overall market sentiment.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
NAS100 - Stock Market Enters Downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the channel ceiling will also continue the short-term upward trend in Nasdaq. According to EPFR data reported by Bank of America, investors withdrew $2.8 billion from equity funds last week, marking the largest outflow of the year so far. Meanwhile, U.S. government bonds saw an inflow of $6.4 billion, the biggest weekly increase since August. Scott Basnett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, stated in an interview that there are no guarantees to prevent an economic recession. He welcomed the decline in stock markets, viewing it as a sign of a healthy market. Analysts believe this shift in tone—unusual for a Treasury Secretary who typically reassures economic strength—suggests an effort to prepare the public for a possible recession. According to data from the Polymarket betting platform, the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is currently estimated at 41%. Reuters reports that American households are increasingly pessimistic about the economic outlook. However, the Federal Reserve may be reluctant to respond aggressively to a weakening economy, given growing concerns that the Trump administration’s trade policies could further fuel inflation. These concerns were reflected in financial markets on Friday, as the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed a decline in consumer confidence for March. Additionally, consumers now expect inflation to reach 3.9% over the next five years, the highest level in more than 30 years. In an interview with Breitbart, Basnett emphasized the need to remain vigilant against persistent Biden-era inflation and expressed support for deregulation to lower costs. He also stressed that while tackling inflation, the government must also address affordability concerns. Additionally, he backed interest rate cuts to help reduce housing costs and auto loan payments. This week will be packed with major economic events, creating a high-risk environment for precious metals traders amid ongoing geopolitical developments during Trump’s second term. Central banks are back in the spotlight, as several key monetary institutions are set to announce their policy decisions in the coming days: • Tuesday: Bank of Japan • Wednesday: Federal Reserve • Thursday: Swiss National Bank & Bank of England Furthermore, a series of macroeconomic data releases could influence market sentiment, including: • Monday: Retail sales & Empire State Manufacturing Index • Tuesday: Housing starts & building permits • Thursday: Weekly jobless claims, existing home sales & Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Market participants will closely watch the Fed’s updated economic projections and Jerome Powell’s press conference for insights into future monetary policy. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists anticipate two rate cuts by the Fed this year, likely starting in September. However, despite declining stock indices and rising recession concerns, Powell is expected to maintain a cautious stance, avoiding any rushed rate cuts. While consumer and business confidence has weakened, the Federal Reserve has limited flexibility to lower rates due to persistently high inflation indicators.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
USOIL Market Outlook – Key Levels and Scenarios📌 Market Structure 🔹 Key Support Zone (~64.50 - 65.30 USD) The price has tested this area multiple times, highlighted by the red dashed line at the bottom. A pronounced lower wick suggests a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure. 🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~68.20 - 70.00 USD) The price has reacted to this zone, which appears to be a former support turned resistance. Caution is needed for potential rejections in this range. 🔹 Liquidity and Wider Supply Zone (~75.00 - 80.00 USD) This area, marked with red/purple gradients, represents a selling zone with a high concentration of orders. The price could be drawn to this level if the bullish phase continues. 📉 Bearish Scenario Failure to break above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could lead to a retest of 64.50 - 65.30 USD. A breakdown below this level could open the way toward 62.40 - 60.00 USD. 📈 Bullish Scenario A weekly close above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could trigger a recovery toward 75.00 - 77.00 USD. A breakout above 80.00 USD would invalidate the long-term bearish structure. 🔎 Conclusion: The price is currently at a critical stage around 68 USD, with potential for a pullback. Monitoring the reaction between 65.30 - 68.20 USD will be key in determining the next direction. Volume and macroeconomic factors (OPEC, oil inventories, Fed policies) will be crucial in confirming the trend.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
GBP/USD shrugs as UK GDP unexpectedly declineshe British pound has edged lower against the US dollar on Friday.  GBP/USD is trading at 1.2928 in the European session, down 0.13% on the day. The UK economy barely registered any growth in the second half of 2024, rising 0.1% in the third quarter and flatlining in the third quarter.  The New Year hasn't seen any improvement, as GDP contracted 0.1% m/m in January, after a 0.4% gain in December and missing the market estimate of 0.1%. The surprise contraction was driven by declines in the production and manufacturing sectors. The economy expanded 0.2% in the three months to January, up from 0.1% in the three months to December but shy of the market estimate of 0.3%. The weak GDP report won't make things any easier for Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, who will announce the Treasury's "Spring Statement" on March 26.  Reeves is expected to outline plans for higher taxes and spending cuts.  The tax hikes on British businesses are expected to weigh on investment, hiring and growth. The Bank of England meets on March 20 and is widely expected to maintain rates at 4.5%.  The BoE trimmed rates by a quarter-point in February.  Inflation rose sharply in January to 3.0% y/y, up from 2.5% in December.  The rise in inflation and weak GDP has raised concerns about stagflation, which is characterized by persistent inflation and weak growth. Another headache for BoE policymakers is US President Donald Trump's tariff policy.  The UK had hoped to avoid the tariffs, but this week the US slapped 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, including on UK products.  That could hurt UK growth and boost inflation. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2949 earlier.  Above, there is resistance at 1.2978 1.2923 and 1.2894 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF: Bearish Trend Pauses, but Breakdown Risks RemainThe strong bearish trend for USD/CHF stalled this week, with buying support emerging beneath .8774, continuing the pattern seen in December. The net result has been a grind higher before running into resistance at .8854, forming what resembles a bear flag on the charts. That should put traders on alert for a potential downside break and resumption of the bearish trend. Indicators like RSI (14) and MACD are providing mixed signals on price momentum, with the former trending higher while the latter remains below the signal line. However, the modest RSI (14) uptrend looks vulnerable, mirroring the unconvincing price action. If the price breaks down from the bear flag, immediate levels of note include .8774, .8711, and .8617, the latter being a more substantial support level. On the topside, a break of .8854 would put .8920 and .8966 on the radar for bulls. The price is hanging around the 200-day moving average like a bad smell this week, but having traded through it on multiple occasions like it didn’t exist, it shouldn’t be a major consideration for traders. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
Will the stock market turn positive again?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, we can look for further buying opportunities in Nasdaq. A break of the resistance range and the channel ceiling will also cause the Nasdaq to continue its short-term upward trend. In February 2025, the U.S. labor market grew at a slower pace than anticipated. According to published data, non-farm employment increased by 151,000 jobs in January, while expectations were set at 160,000.This indicates that while job growth continues, its momentum has been weaker than projected. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in February, slightly above the expected 4%. Meanwhile, labor force participation declined by 0.2 percentage points to 62.4%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% during the month, aligning with forecasts. On an annual basis, wage growth reached 4%, slightly below the estimated 4.1%. Among various sectors, the highest job gains were recorded in healthcare (52,000 jobs), finance (21,000 jobs), and local government (20,000 jobs). Employment also rose in construction, transportation, social assistance, and manufacturing. Conversely, some industries experienced job losses. The hospitality sector shed 16,000 jobs, retail lost 6,000, and the federal government reduced employment by 10,000 positions. Additionally, temporary jobs declined by 12,000, signaling a potential slowdown in economic growth. Overall, the report suggests that while the U.S. labor market remains stable, certain indicators, such as rising unemployment and a decline in full-time jobs, may point to a deceleration in economic expansion. Following the report’s release, the U.S. dollar weakened slightly, but the market reaction was muted due to prior concerns over a more significant decline. Hassett, the White House economic advisor, stated that future reports are likely to show further reductions in government employment. He emphasized the administration’s plan to cut government jobs and spending while boosting employment in the manufacturing sector. He also confirmed that tariffs are inevitable, arguing that such measures will support the expected 3% to 4% economic growth. Hassett expressed doubt that President Trump would grant exemptions for steel tariffs. As investors try to adjust to Trump’s evolving trade policies, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February is set to be released on Wednesday. Given the recent Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index data from January, it is possible that CPI could be entering a new downward trend. The Federal Reserve’s battle against inflation remains challenging, and the recent rise in price pressures has undoubtedly been frustrating for policymakers. However, signs indicate that U.S. inflation may be shifting course, with expectations of a decline in the coming months. One major uncertainty remains: tariffs. Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports and a 20% increase on Chinese goods, along with additional sector-specific and retaliatory tariffs still under discussion, could undermine the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation down to 2%. In January, the overall CPI climbed to 3%, marking its highest level since June 2024. Core inflation also reached 3.3%. However, February’s data is expected to ease months of concern about inflationary resurgence, with projections indicating a decline in overall CPI to 2.9% and core inflation to 3.1%. Monthly estimates for both indices stand at 0.3%. Later in the week, Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for February will provide further insights into inflationary pressures, while on Friday, investors will closely monitor the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for March. Last month’s survey raised alarms, as consumer inflation expectations climbed to their highest level in 30 years.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
Watch credit spread increase drive toward correction territoryThe Nasdaq is already flirting with correction territory, and other major market indices may follow as the credit spread increases. As the market indicates its perceived increased risk in corporate default, this spread (high-yield bond yield minus 10y bond yield) increases independent of what the Fed does. If the recent mini-spike up to ~7.5% heads north of 10% in short order--6 to 9 weeks perhaps, I'll become proportionally bearish. The calculation: Subtract the US10Y (left/middle blue line) from the High-yield bond yield (right purple line) to obtain the spread. As of 7 Mar 2025, 11.95% - 4.305% = 7.65%
TVC:US10YShort
by davidlfox
1
CAD/JPY Analysis – Key Levels & Market Drivers📉 Bearish Context & Key Resistance Levels: Major Resistance at 108.32 Price previously rejected from this strong supply zone. Moving averages (yellow & red lines) are acting as dynamic resistance. Short-term Resistance at 106.00-107.00 Failed bullish attempt, leading to a strong reversal. A break above this area is needed to shift momentum bullishly. 📈 Bullish Context & Key Support Levels: Support at 102.00-101.50 (Demand Zone) Significant buyer interest in this area. If the price reaches this zone, a potential bounce could occur. Deeper Support at 99.00-100.00 If 102.00 fails, the next demand level is in the high 90s, marking a critical long-term support. 📉 Current Market Outlook: CAD/JPY is in a strong downtrend, consistently making lower highs and lower lows. The price is testing key support areas, and further movement depends on upcoming economic events. A potential bounce could occur at 102.00, but failure to hold could trigger further declines toward 99.00. 📰 Fundamental Analysis & Market Drivers 🔹 Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision – March 12, 2025 Expected rate cut from 3.00% to 2.75% → Bearish for CAD. A dovish stance signals weakness in the Canadian economy, potentially pushing CAD/JPY lower. If the BoC provides an aggressive rate cut or hints at further easing, the downtrend could continue. 🔹 Japan Current Account (January) – March 7, 2025 Expected at 370B JPY (significantly lower than previous 1077.3B JPY). A lower-than-expected surplus may weaken JPY, slightly offsetting CAD weakness. If JPY remains strong despite this data, CAD/JPY could fall further toward 101.50-100.00. 📈 Potential Trading Setups: 🔻 Short Setup (Bearish Bias): Entry: Below 103.00, confirming further weakness. Target 1: 102.00 Target 2: 100.00 Stop Loss: Above 104.50 to avoid volatility spikes. 🔼 Long Setup (Bullish Scenario - Retracement Play): Entry: Strong bullish rejection from 102.00 Target 1: 105.00 Target 2: 108.00 Stop Loss: Below 101.50 to limit downside risk. 📌 Final Thoughts: The BoC rate decision will likely be bearish for CAD, increasing downward pressure on CAD/JPY. The Japan Current Account data could provide temporary support for JPY but is unlikely to fully reverse the trend. 102.00-101.50 is a key buying zone, while failure to hold could drive the pair toward 99.00-100.00. 🚨 Key Watch Zones: 102.00 Support & 108.00 Resistance – Strong moves expected!
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBPUSD - Dollar’s ​​view on jobs data!The GBPUSD pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction, the pair can be sold to narrow it. Last week ended with an unexpected shock for economists: estimates pointed to a significant trade imbalance in the United States for January, primarily driven by a sharp surge in imports. The data indicated that U.S. businesses had made extensive efforts to ramp up foreign purchases ahead of the imposition of new tariffs. Economic analysts expressed concerns that this trend could negatively impact U.S. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2025, as increased imports are typically subtracted from gross domestic product calculations. However, Goldman Sachs experts presented a different perspective. They argue that the unexpected surge in imports was mainly due to an influx of gold bars into the U.S.—a trend that reflects the dynamics of the global precious metals market and the price disparity between gold in London and New York. According to data cited by Goldman Sachs, the U.S. imported approximately $25 billion worth of gold in January, meaning that a substantial portion of the commodity trade deficit was driven by gold transactions. Since gold is generally considered a financial asset, these imports are not factored into GDP calculations. As a result, the actual economic impact of this growing trade deficit may be significantly lower than initially perceived. Currently, financial markets anticipate a 77-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. However, this expectation largely hinges on the trajectory of inflation. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding tariff policies remains high. A new report from the New York Federal Reserve indicates that inflation expectations among businesses have risen. According to the report, projected inflation for the next year has increased from 3% to 3.5% among manufacturing firms and from 3% to 4% among service-based companies. Additionally, many businesses foresee a significant rise in operational costs in 2025. Meanwhile, market pricing suggests that traders no longer expect the Bank of England to implement two rate cuts this year. Taylor, a member of the central bank, stated that every policy meeting carries great importance. He noted that the output gap—the difference between actual and potential production—may be larger than previous Bank of England estimates. Taylor emphasized that monetary policies should gradually return to normal and that a cautious approach is necessary when dealing with multiple price shocks. Furthermore, Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, stressed that the economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks moving in both directions. He stated that while inflation is expected to rise, it will not resemble the severe inflationary periods of recent years. According to Bailey, decisions on rate cuts will depend on inflation trends, which have so far remained within an acceptable range. He also noted that the likelihood of second-round inflationary effects—where slowing economic growth leads to renewed price pressures—has diminished.
Short
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD Analysis & Market Insights📉 Bearish Context & Key Resistance Levels: Major Resistance at 2,934.00 Strong supply zone where price has previously rejected. Multiple tests of this area indicate seller pressure. Short-term Resistance at 2,920-2,925 Price is consolidating near this zone. A rejection could lead to a downward move. 📈 Bullish Context & Key Support Levels: Support at 2,846.88 - 2,832.72 (Demand Zone) Strong reaction zone where buyers stepped in. Previous price action suggests liquidity in this area. Deeper Support at 2,720-2,680 If 2,832 breaks, this is the next key demand area. Aligned with moving averages, adding confluence. 📉 Current Market Outlook: Price recently bounced from the 2,846-2,832 support, showing buyers’ presence. However, the 2,920-2,925 area is acting as resistance. If the price fails to break higher, a move back toward 2,846 or even 2,720 is possible. 📈 Potential Trading Setups: 🔻 Short Setup (Bearish Bias): Entry: Below 2,920 after a clear rejection. Target 1: 2,846 Target 2: 2,832, with possible extension to 2,720. Stop Loss: Above 2,935 to avoid fakeouts. 🔼 Long Setup (Bullish Scenario): Entry: Break and hold above 2,934.00 with confirmation. Target 1: 2,960 Target 2: 3,000+ Stop Loss: Below 2,915 to minimize risk. 📰 Fundamental Analysis & Market Drivers 1️⃣ US ISM Services PMI & ADP Jobs Report: The ISM Services PMI increased to 53.5, signaling stronger services inflation and employment. However, the ADP Employment Report showed a disappointing 77K jobs, far below the expected 140K, weighing on the USD. 2️⃣ Trump’s Tariffs & USD Weakness: Trump announced massive tariffs on trade partners, affecting risk sentiment. While he downplayed negative effects, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at potential tariff rollbacks, boosting risk appetite. This weakened the USD, allowing gold to rise. 3️⃣ Upcoming ECB Decision: The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, which could further impact market sentiment and gold’s direction. If the rate cut weakens the EUR, gold could see more upside. 📌 Final Thoughts: 2,920-2,925 remains a key resistance for short-term direction. A break above 2,934 could signal bullish continuation. A rejection from current levels could push price back toward 2,846 or lower. Fundamentals favor gold's strength as the USD weakens due to poor job data and trade uncertainty. 🚀 Key Decision Zone: Watch price action near 2,920-2,925!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
BITCOIN 2025 - A MODERATE SCENARIOBitcoin’s price trajectory hinges on critical technical levels. Should Bitcoin fall below the key support zones—referred to here as the 'red lines' and t he bold black line —it risks entering a bear market, potentially signaling the end of the current bull cycle. These levels are pivotal for sustaining the parabolic bull market’s final leg. Following an initial decline from current levels, Bitcoin is projected to drop to approximately $70K, where it may consolidate for a couple of months. For the best-case scenario to unfold, Bitcoin must hold above the critical $70-77K threshold and execute a sharp V-shaped recovery. From there, a robust rally could propel it beyond $100K around August, culminating in the cycle’s peak in September at its highest point. While this outcome appears unlikely in the short term, it remains the most favorable projection, contingent on Bitcoin maintaining strength above the $70K line. Failure to do so could prematurely terminate the bull cycle.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by maxty
1
GBP/CAD Analysis – Key Levels & Trade Scenarios📊 Timeframe: Weekly (1W) | Current Price: ~1.8391 📈 Bullish Context: Resistance at 1.8391: Price is testing a strong supply zone (dark red area). A breakout above this level could open the door to further upside. Support at 1.8233 & 1.7677: 1.8233: Short-term support where buyers have stepped in. 1.7677: Major support level, previously tested multiple times. 📉 Current Outlook: Price has aggressively moved up, breaking through previous resistances. Approaching a critical resistance area, where rejection is possible. If a rejection occurs, a retracement toward 1.8233 or 1.7677 could be seen. 📈 Trade Setups: 🔼 Long (Breakout Play): Entry: Above 1.8400 with confirmation. Target 1: 1.8600 Target 2: 1.8800 Stop Loss: Below 1.8230 to avoid fakeouts. 🔻 Short (Rejection Scenario): Entry: Bearish rejection from 1.8391 with confirmation. Target 1: 1.8233 Target 2: 1.7677 Stop Loss: Above 1.8450. 📌 Final Thoughts: GBP/CAD is at a critical resistance; a breakout could lead to new highs. A rejection would confirm a pullback toward support levels. Key macroeconomic data may impact momentum and direction.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/JPY Analysis – Key Levels & Trade Scenarios📊 Timeframe: Weekly (1W) | Current Price: ~189.90 📉 Bearish Context: Resistance at 192.04: Strong supply zone (red rectangle) where price previously reversed. Aligned with moving averages (likely 50 & 100 periods), acting as dynamic resistance. Support at 184.63: Marked in blue as a significant demand zone. Historical reaction area, where buyers may step in again. 📉 Current Outlook: Price rejected 192.04, forming a bearish structure. Price currently consolidating below resistance, indicating weakness. If selling pressure continues, a move toward 184.63 is likely. 📈 Trade Setups: 🔻 Short (Bearish Bias): Entry: Below 189.50 with a bearish confirmation. Target 1: 186.00 Target 2: 184.63 Stop Loss: Above 192.00 to avoid fakeouts. 🔼 Long (Reversal Play): Entry: Strong bullish reaction from 184.63. Target: Retest of 192.04, with SL below 184.00. 📌 Final Thoughts: The bearish trend remains dominant unless 192.04 is broken. A clean break below 189.50 strengthens the bearish outlook. Macro factors and volatility could influence upcoming price action.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Bitcoin - Bitcoin, waiting for another decline?!Bitcoin is located between the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. Bitcoin's downward correction and its placement in the demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it again. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range. Donald Trump has issued an executive order on digital assets, directing the Presidential Task Force to move toward establishing a strategic cryptocurrency reserve that will include XRP, SOL, and ADA. He emphasized, “I will ensure that the United States becomes the cryptocurrency capital of the world.” Trump further added, “We are making America great again!” He also highlighted Bitcoin and Ethereum as other valuable digital assets that will be central to this reserve, stating, “I love Bitcoin and Ethereum!” Following this announcement, Bitcoin responded positively to the news of the executive order. On February 28, BlackRock made headlines after Bitcoin (BTC) dropped below $80,000. Amid speculation, some claimed that the company had sold $500 million worth of Bitcoin, playing a significant role in the price decline. However, a closer analysis contradicts these claims. Data shows that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) still holds 577,919 BTC. While this fund saw an outflow of 2,274 BTC on February 27 and a total of 10,595 BTC over the past week, this does not imply that BlackRock itself is selling Bitcoin. These ETF outflows result from investors selling shares of the fund. In such scenarios, the ETF is required to sell Bitcoin proportionally to meet liquidity demands. Therefore, these movements are not directly tied to BlackRock’s own decision to offload BTC but rather reflect investor behavior. Contrary to circulating rumors, BlackRock is not exiting Bitcoin; in fact, it has been increasing its exposure. Recent financial filings reveal that the company now holds a 5% stake in MicroStrategy (MSTR), up from 4.09% in September 2024. Additionally, it has been announced that BlackRock plans to integrate its Bitcoin ETF into the firm’s $150 billion portfolio. This move suggests that rather than pulling out of the market, BlackRock is strengthening its position in Bitcoin-related assets. Ultimately, this situation highlights how quickly rumors and speculation can spread during market downturns, but a detailed analysis of the data always provides a clearer picture of reality. Meanwhile, Ronaldinho, the former Brazilian football star, has announced plans to launch his own cryptocurrency. He also warned his fans to stay vigilant against fraudulent meme coins.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq, won't it go below 20k?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its medium-term ascending channel. If the index rises towards the suggested zones, we can look for the next Nasdaq sell-off. The composition of investors’ financial assets from 1990 to 2025 reveals shifts in the allocation of equities, bonds, and cash. Currently, the share of equities in investment portfolios has reached an all-time high of 54%, indicating a growing preference for the stock market among investors. Conversely, the share of bonds and cash has declined to 18% and 13%, respectively, suggesting reduced interest in holding fixed-income assets and liquidity. At present, more than half of investors’ financial assets are concentrated in equities, which could reflect optimism about the market’s future growth. This situation calls for increased caution from the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration, as a significant portion of American households’ surplus income is now directed toward stocks. As a result, any downturn in the U.S. stock market could have more severe consequences for the public than before. Scott Bassett, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, responded to a recent survey indicating that Americans want President Donald Trump to focus more on reducing inflation. He stated that he is confident consumer price inflation in the United States will decline throughout the year. In an interview with CBS and Face the Nation, Bassett defended Trump’s economic policies, emphasizing that the president is pursuing a comprehensive approach that includes tariffs, deregulation, and a gradual reduction in energy costs. Meanwhile, following weaker-than-expected preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February and a decline in the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index, investors are now pricing in approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for this year. This projection is 10 basis points higher than the forecasts from the December dot plot. Market pricing indicates that traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June, particularly after the release of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. However, with Trump ramping up tariff threats against key U.S. trading partners such as China, Canada, and Mexico, outlining a clear economic roadmap has become more challenging. Tariff impositions pose a serious risk of reigniting inflation, prompting many Federal Reserve officials who have recently expressed their views to adopt a “wait and see” approach. This week, market attention will once again turn to employment data, as investors eagerly anticipate the release of the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Other key events include the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) estimates for the Eurozone and the ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI on Monday, the ADP Employment Report and ISM Services PMI on Wednesday, and the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday. Additionally, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday will be closely watched, with economists expecting another interest rate cut.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook – Key Levels & Trade Setups📊 Technical Analysis EUR/USD Timeframe: Likely Weekly (1W) Current Price: ~1.0416 📉 Bearish Context: Key Resistance: 1.05290 This zone has been tested multiple times without a breakout, indicating strong selling pressure. It aligns with a liquidity area visible in the red rectangle. Also near the yellow moving average (likely 50 or 100 periods), acting as dynamic resistance. Key Support: 1.02838 Marked in blue as a potential short-term target. A level that previously provided support and may attract buyers again. 📉 Current Scenario: The price has rejected the 1.0529 resistance with a strong bearish candle. A breakdown from the gray zone suggests a potential continuation downward. If selling pressure persists, the 1.02838 target could be reached. 📈 Potential Trading Strategies: 🔻 Short Scenario (Bearish Bias): Entry: Below 1.0430 after confirmation with a daily bearish close. Target 1: 1.02838 Target 2: Below 1.0200 (depending on price action). Stop Loss: Above 1.0500 (to avoid false breakouts). 🔼 Long Scenario (Less Likely Bullish Setup): Entry: Confirmed bounce above 1.02838 with a strong reversal candle. Target: Retest of 1.0529, with a stop below 1.0280. 📌 Final Considerations: The current structure favors a short-term bearish continuation. Key areas (support and resistance) will be crucial for the next move. Watch for macroeconomic data and volatility, as they could impact the trend.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
XAUUSD - Worries about the US economy!?Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 30-minute timeframe and is in its descending channel. An upward correction of gold towards the supply limits will provide us with the next selling position with a good risk-reward ratio. An economist believes that the massive influx of gold and silver into the United States, coupled with speculation about the liquidity of the country’s gold reserves, could have profound effects on American consumers as well as the domestic and global economy. Thorsten Pollitt, professor emeritus of economics at the University of Bayreuth and publisher of the BOOM & BUST report, told Kitco News that the increase in physical gold and silver inflows into the US is not surprising, as banks are increasing their reserves to counter potential risks associated with tariffs. He stressed that while the likelihood of tariffs on gold and silver is low, the risk is significant enough for banks and investors to take a precautionary approach. Looking at the long-term implications of this, Pollitt explained that the increase in US gold and silver reserves, coupled with the government’s renewed focus on its reserves, could lead to expectations that both precious metals would be used as currency alongside the US dollar. He added that using gold and silver as hard currency alongside the dollar could help reduce the problem of inflation, which has become a major challenge for the economy. However, he stressed that for such a scenario to happen, the price of gold and silver would have to reach a much higher level to be commensurate with the size of the US economy. (Hard currency refers to a form of currency that is globally accepted and retains its value due to its stability and reliability.) Pollitt went on to explain that the significant increase in US government debt has put not only the Federal Reserve, but the entire fiat-based monetary system at risk. “In the future, the Federal Reserve will no longer be able to maintain the same flexibility that it has in the past,” he said. For example, in times of financial crises, the Fed would usually support the economy by injecting liquidity into it. But now, doing so could trigger a wave of hyperinflation. We now know that the Fed can no longer simply be the savior of the economy as it used to be.” He also warned that the Fed’s policies have led to the market not pricing in risks properly. For example, yields on risky corporate bonds are significantly below their historical average. Currently, the yield spread between B-rated corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds is 1.45 percent, its lowest level since mid-1979. Warren Buffett, one of the most influential figures in the investment world, has made his concerns clear. In his annual letter to shareholders, the 94-year-old has a stark message for policymakers in Washington: financial turmoil and monetary instability pose a serious threat to the U.S. economy. The warning comes as his conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway has delivered a record-breaking profit and a record $334.2 billion in cash. But Buffett is treading carefully as investment opportunities appear to be shrinking and is preparing to hand over the reins to his appointed successor, Greg Abel. In the letter, Buffett expressed concern about the growing U.S. budget deficit and warned of a possible extension of tax cuts that began under Trump. He emphasizes that “irresponsible fiscal policies can destroy the value of paper money” and emphasizes the importance of sound public financial management. According to him, the stability of the US economy depends on a strong dollar, and any mistake in monetary policy can have irreparable consequences. With the rapidly growing budget deficit and increasing discussions about extending the Trump-era tax cuts, Buffett warns that the value of the dollar may weaken. He calls on Washington policymakers to maintain a stable economic framework and support the vulnerable: “Support people who have been unfortunate in life through no fault of their own. They deserve a better life.” Warren Buffett reminds us of one of the fundamental principles of investing: “In times of uncertainty, caution and responsible management are more important than ever.” His warning about the growth of the US public debt and the depreciation of the dollar may come true if current trends continue. Moreover, his focus on investing in Japan and preparing for his successor is a key step for the future of Berkshire Hathaway, a company that must find its way without him in a world of increasing economic instability.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND