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EUR/USD Bulls in Control... But the Trap Is Set at 1.1600? 🇺🇸 EUR/USD – Technical & Macro Outlook EUR/USD has posted an impressive rally over the past few weeks, driven by a combination of technical and macro factors. It is currently trading around 1.1586, right at the edge of a major supply zone where previous sharp rejections and reversals have taken place. 🔍 Technical Analysis Price action remains within a well-defined ascending channel that began in mid-April, fueling the bullish move from the 1.07 lows. The current daily candle is showing signs of exhaustion within the 1.1550–1.1600 resistance zone, with upper wicks and declining volume. RSI is in a high-neutral zone but not yet overbought, leaving room for more upside — but also increasing the probability of a technical pullback. 🔁 Key Levels: Primary resistance: 1.1600 (multi-touch supply area) Support 1: 1.1460–1.1430 (previous resistance, now potential support) Support 2: 1.1300–1.1270 (demand zone + channel base) 📉 COT Report – June 3, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators) remain net-long with over 200,000 contracts, though both long (-1,540) and short (-4,830) positions saw reductions. This suggests a bullish structure with early signs of profit-taking. Commercials are heavily net-short, with 575,000 short contracts versus 437,000 long — a structurally bearish stance from physical market participants. Open interest increased significantly by +20,813, pointing to renewed speculative participation and potential volatility. 🧭 Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily short (80%) with an average entry around 1.1253. This contrarian behavior is typically supportive of continued upside pressure — especially if price holds above key supports. 📅 Seasonality – June Historical averages over 10, 15, and 20 years show a slightly bullish tendency in June. The 2- and 5-year patterns suggest more neutral to mildly bearish behavior. This supports a consolidation or corrective pullback, without ruling out higher moves during the summer rally. 🎯 Trading Conclusion Current bias: Moderately bullish, with rising pullback risks near 1.1600 Possible setup: Tactical short between 1.1580–1.1610 if confirmed by bearish price action Target: 1.1430–1.1300 Bullish scenario remains valid unless we break below 1.1270 📌 Summary The bullish trend is strong but technically extended. Speculative positions remain net-long but are starting to unwind. The retail crowd is still betting against the move, which favors bulls. However, structural resistance calls for caution — a pullback could be imminent.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
Massive GBP/USD Reversal Ahead? Head & Shoulders FormationGBP/USD is at a critical technical juncture following a sharp bullish impulse that pushed the pair above the 1.34 handle, printing a strong weekly bullish engulfing candle and breaking out of a multi-week consolidation zone. This move unfolded in a macro context where the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of weakness, with Non-Commercial net long positions dropping drastically—from around 20,000 to less than 5,000 contracts. This shift points to a fading speculative appetite for the dollar, historically a leading indicator of upcoming corrective phases or broader declines in the DXY. On the flip side, the Commitments of Traders (COT) report on the British Pound reveals that Non-Commercials (typically hedge funds and asset managers) remain net long on GBP, with a slight increase week-over-week. However, Commercials (generally institutions and hedgers) have aggressively built up a significant net short position—levels that in the past preceded major reversals on the pair. This divergence between speculators and institutional hedgers suggests short-term bullish potential, but with rising risk of exhaustion near current resistance levels. Adding fuel to this outlook is the retail sentiment: approximately 63% of retail traders are currently short GBP/USD, with an average entry price around 1.3021. This kind of retail crowd positioning, typically inefficient from a historical perspective, adds contrarian support for further upside, as long as price holds above the 1.3340 structure. From a seasonality perspective, June tends to be a mildly bullish-to-sideways month for GBP/USD, especially when looking at the 10- and 15-year seasonal averages. While the seasonal bias is not particularly strong, there’s also no statistical downward pressure this time of year, leaving room for technically-driven moves influenced by liquidity and sentiment rather than macro patterns alone. On the technical front, the daily chart shows a steep rally capped by a large green candle on Monday, breaking cleanly through the 1.34 resistance zone. The price is now hovering inside a key supply area between 1.3499 and 1.3550—a historically reactive zone that has triggered major rejections in previous months. How price reacts here will likely shape the next major swing. A confirmed breakout and consolidation above 1.3550 would open the door for an extension toward 1.37–1.3750. Conversely, a sharp rejection followed by a break below 1.3412—and especially under 1.3340—would set the stage for a deeper correction toward 1.3170. The RSI is currently showing early signs of momentum loss, although no strong bearish divergence has emerged yet. This implies that the pair could still fuel another push higher before running out of steam—possibly forming the right shoulder of a head & shoulders pattern if the rejection scenario plays out.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
11
GBPJPY At the Top? Massive Liquidity Grab📈 1. Price Action & Key Technical Levels (Daily Chart) Price reached a major supply zone between 196.0 and 197.0, showing clear rejection (weekly pin bar and a lower high structure relative to the previous peak). The long-term descending trendline acted as resistance again. A confirmed rising wedge pattern broke to the downside, with first target around 191.4, and extended target near 187.4 (key demand zone with historical confluence). Weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence vs price highs – an additional signal of bullish exhaustion. 📊 2. COT Data (as of June 3, 2025) GBP (British Pound) Net long positions increased by +30,371 contracts (Commercial + Non-Commercial). Non-Commercials: 103,672 long vs 68,457 short → net long +35,215 but the increase is relatively modest. Commercials are increasing both long and short positions, but the net delta supports medium-term GBP resilience. JPY (Japanese Yen) Net short worsened by -13,566 contracts. Non-Commercials are cutting longs and adding shorts → aggressive yen selling. Commercials remain heavily short (275,659 vs 100,151 long). ➡️ COT Conclusion: GBP remains structurally strong, but the JPY is now extremely oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical correction in favor of JPY (GBPJPY pullback). 📉 3. Retail Sentiment 72% of retail traders are short GBPJPY, with an average entry at 191.2. Current price is above 195.8 → a liquidity sweep above retail shorts may have already occurred. The order book shows a heavy sell cluster between 195.0–195.9 → potential zone of manipulation/liquidation. ➡️ Contrarian view: After sweeping liquidity above retail highs, we may now see downside pressure to clean out breakout longs. 📅 4. Seasonality June tends to be neutral to bearish: 5-year average: +0.45% (weak gain) 10- and 15-year averages: -1.24% and -1.30% Historically, the first 10 days of June often mark a local top, followed by a decline – consistent with the current price structure. 🧠 5. Macro-Technical Confluence The broader setup points to a distribution phase between 195.5–196.5, with high probability of a technical pullback toward 193.5–191.4 in the short-to-medium term. The yen's oversold conditions may ease temporarily, supporting a corrective GBPJPY retracement. Break below 193.5 would confirm the move toward 191.4 and eventually 187.4 – an area of institutional interest. 🔍 Trade Setup Summary (Bias: Bearish) Technical context: Short setup confirmed by structure break, divergence, and supply rejection. Macro/sentiment context: Supports a corrective pullback on the pair. Strategy: Look for intraday weakness below 195.0–194.5 → targeting 193.5, then 191.4. Invalidation: Daily/weekly close above 197.0.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
12
NQ100 → Entering the Danger Zone?📈 1. Technical Context (Price Action & Structure) The daily chart shows a strong bullish continuation from the 17,350 area, with price now extending toward the 22,000 USD zone. We are currently within a weekly/monthly supply, with: Mild RSI divergence in overbought conditions Temporary rejection at 22,050–22,200 A potential liquidity sweep above highs before distribution or pullback The monthly structure shows a strong swing low that may serve as anchor for a future reversal 🧠 2. COT Report – Commitment of Traders (as of June 3) Commercials (Smart Money): +4,041 long | +3,320 short → Net +1,455 → hedging phase, not trend expansion Non-Commercials (Speculators): –2,237 long | +125 short → net exposure reduction Open Interest increasing → new positions building, but no extreme imbalance 📌 Conclusion: Tactical neutrality, slight bullish lean from commercials. 📆 3. Seasonality June has been historically bullish, especially in the past 2 years (+700 pts avg) 10Y average still leans bullish ⚠️ September is a clear seasonal reversal month across all timeframes 📌 Conclusion: Seasonal tailwind through end of June; cyclic reversal risk into Q3. 📰 4. Macro Calendar High-impact USD week: CPI – Wed, June 11 PPI – Thu, June 12 These will be critical to: Validate the disinflation narrative Set expectations for a Fed cut by Sep/Nov 📌 Conclusion: Expect explosive mid-week volatility — watch for liquidity spikes above 22,000 if CPI surprises. ⚙️ Operational Outlook ✅ Primary scenario (bullish continuation): 🎯 Target: 22,260 → fib extension + structure ❌ Invalid below 21,350 🔄 Alternative scenario (mean reversion): 🔻 Short from 22,050–22,200 🎯 Target: 20,950 → liquidity + FVG zone 🔁 Trigger: weekly engulf or hotter-than-expected CPI
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Cocoa Bounce From Demand – Can This Lead to a New 2025 High?On June 11th, price reacted sharply to a key demand block around the 8,880–9,000 zone, which aligns with: Golden Pocket Fib (0.705–0.78) between 8,420 and 9,006 The midpoint of a previous consolidation range A liquidity sweep followed by a strong bullish rejection The RSI is showing a bullish divergence (lower lows on price vs rising RSI), which supports a possible technical rebound. 🟣 Immediate target: 10,400–10,600 (supply zone) 🔴 The bullish bias would be invalidated on a close below 8,850 📈 Commitments of Traders (COT) – as of June 3, 2025 Non-Commercials (speculators): still net long, but reduced their long exposure by -2,006 contracts, and trimmed shorts slightly as well Commercials: remain heavily net short with over 61,000 contracts (61.4% of OI), indicating ongoing hedging by producers Open Interest dropped by -1,257 → a sign of general position liquidation ➡️ The reduction in speculative longs likely reflects profit-taking after the May rally, but overall net positioning remains bullish on a medium-term view. 📅 Seasonality – June On the 20, 15 and 10-year averages, June typically shows a moderately bullish rebound, often following weakness in May. On the 5 and 2-year views, however, performance is more neutral to slightly negative. Historically, June acts as a consolidation or pre-rally month, often preceding a stronger uptrend in July–August. 🧠 Operational Outlook Bias: Moderately bullish in the short term, with potential recovery toward 10,400. Structure still shows signs of broader distribution, so caution remains in the medium term. 🎯 Trade idea: Aggressive long initiated on the bounce from demand First target: 10,400 Breakout extension: 11,200 Invalidation on daily close below 8,850
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
BTC: Strong bullish trend, key resistance 111–112k in focus__________________________________________________________________________________ Technical Overview – Summary Points __________________________________________________________________________________ Strong bullish momentum across all timeframes (1D to 15min). Major supports: 100335, 104940, 106743 – multi-timeframe confluence, natural risk management levels. Key resistances: 109952 – 111949 (historical pivot zones). Risk On / Risk Off Indicator clearly favoring "Risk On" (strong buy). Tech sector in leadership mode, favorable context. Volumes normal to moderately elevated, no major behavioral anomalies (ISPD DIV neutral). No significant divergence between technical and behavioral indicators detected. __________________________________________________________________________________ Strategic Summary __________________________________________________________________________________ Overall bias : firmly bullish, but tactical caution just below 111,000–112,000. Opportunities : prioritize buys/reloads on pullbacks to 104,900–100,300. Risk zones : clean break below 103.7k ⇒ risk of acceleration to 95.6k; invalidation if daily close <103,700$ or >2 sessions <97,100$. Macro catalysts : Fed decision (06/18), US CPI (06/12), Trump speech (06/10); anticipate higher volatility. Action plan : engage tactically below resistance; recommended swing stop-loss at $97,000; active management after each catalyst event. __________________________________________________________________________________ Multi-Timeframe Analysis __________________________________________________________________________________ 1D : Massive support 100k-103k, critical resistance 111–112k. Robust momentum and context, no behavioral overheating. 12H : Steady staircase progression, intermediate supports respected (104940–106743), healthy volumes, ongoing up-trend. 6H : Bullish background, no excessive flow or defensive behavioral signals. 4H : Resistance zone test (111949–109952), structure remains solidly up, no reversal detected. 2H : Slightly rising volumes on resistance test, no behavioral excess. Positive momentum. 1H : Active resistance test, moderate volumes. Bullish structure intact. 30min : Micro-consolidation below resistance, no excessive volume/behavior. Trend up. 15min : Volume spike on last upward move, rapid normalization. Reload possible if breakout above 110k is confirmed. Multi-timeframe summary : Bullish confluence, no strong reversal signal as long as support at 103.7k holds. Risk On / Risk Off Indicator : Strong buy, tech sector leading, no structural risk detected in capital rotation. __________________________________________________________________________________ Synthesis & Decision-Making __________________________________________________________________________________ Dominant structure : BTC market structurally bullish, supported by multi-timeframe converging supports and solid tech sector. No behavioral anomaly (ISPD DIV neutral); volumes under control; only vigilance below 111–112k due to matured seller pressure. Macro context : Fed’s rates unchanged expected, major catalysts nearing with potential for significant volatility. On-chain analysis : active distribution from long-term holders, critical area 103.7k–97.1k, demand must absorb “long-duration” supply. Trading recommendation : favor buys/reloads on pullback (104,900–100,300); tactical caution under 111–112k; swing stop-loss at $97,000 advised. BTC structurally bullish, but approaches a critical phase: robust multi-timeframe supports, positive macro momentum, no excessive behavioral exuberance. Heightened vigilance required below 111–112k due to pressure from long-term holders; dynamic risk management needed around major macro events. __________________________________________________________________________________
Long
by Ox_kali
EURJPY Bulls in Trouble? Massive Rejection Signals📉 Full Multi-Factor Analysis – EUR/JPY 🔍 1. Price Action EUR/JPY strongly rejected the key supply zone between 164.80–165.50, aligned with a major static resistance. Last week's breakout was invalidated by a clear bull trap, followed by a bearish engulfing candle. Price broke below the ascending channel drawn since April and is now heading toward the 162.00 demand area. The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, confirming a slowdown in momentum. ➡️ Technical Bias: Bearish toward 161.50–162.00, with a possible extension to 160.00. 💼 2. COT Data – Commitment of Traders EUR Futures (CME) Strong increase in commercial longs (+16,095) and non-commercial shorts (+4,830). Suggests smart money is accumulating while retail/speculators are pressing shorts — potential accumulation, but no breakout yet. JPY Futures Significant rise in non-commercial shorts (+10,575), while long positions declined. The yen remains pressured, but extreme positioning could fuel a reversal if sentiment flips. ➡️ COT Takeaway: Euro remains in bullish consolidation. Yen is heavily oversold — ripe for mean reversion. Caution warranted. 📊 3. Retail Sentiment 80% of retail traders are short from an average price of 160.46, while price now sits at 164.86. The crowd is deep in drawdown — a typical condition for short-term consolidations or fakeouts before reversals. ➡️ Implication: Price may hover around 164+ to trap remaining retail shorts before unwinding. 📈 4. Seasonality June seasonality for EUR/JPY is historically neutral to bearish. Only the 5-year data shows strength, while 15Y and 20Y trends reveal consistent downside starting mid-June. ➡️ Seasonal Outlook: Adds further weight to a bearish correction scenario for the second half of the month. ✅ Actionable Summary 📌 Weekly Bias: Bearish 📉 Main Target: 162.00–161.50 📉 Extended Target: 160.00 📈 Invalidation: Weekly close above 165.60 🧠 Final Thoughts All major elements — price action, COT, sentiment, and seasonality — point toward a corrective move on EUR/JPY. Given the strong underlying trend and retail’s positioning, watch out for bull traps before deeper downside. Best setup: Sell the pullback or wait for clean breakdown below 163.00.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
GBPNZD Ready to Flip? Key Reversal Zone in Play🔹 1. Price Action and Technical Structure Price is currently at 2.2405, declining from the recent high in the 2.26–2.28 area. The pair completed a descending channel with potential for reversal. A bullish reaction is taking place from the 2.2280–2.2170 demand zone, supported by previous volume spikes. The RSI is falling, nearing oversold territory but not yet at extreme levels. Possible technical scenarios: Bullish: Recovery toward 2.2560–2.2600, with a potential breakout above recent highs. Bearish: A break below 2.2170 could trigger further downside toward 2.2000 and 2.1800. 🔹 2. Seasonality (June) NZD June tends to be slightly positive for NZD (average: +0.0011 over 20 years), with consistent monthly patterns. GBP June is historically neutral to negative for GBP (average: +0.0015 over 20 years, but negative over 5 and 2 years). ➡️ This implies a seasonal edge for NZD over GBP. 🔹 3. Retail Sentiment 60% of retail traders are long on GBPNZD. 40% are short, but long positions average 2.1874, currently in profit. ➡️ This presents a mild contrarian bearish pressure, due to crowding on the long side. 🔹 4. Commitment of Traders (COT) – Institutional Positioning GBP (as of 2025-06-03) Commercials Net Long: +74.5K Non-Commercials Net Short: -11.3K Weekly changes: +30.3K longs vs. +32.6K shorts ➡️ Moderate balance, but growing speculative short interest. NZD (as of 2025-06-03) Non-Commercials Net Short: -23.6K Strong weekly increase in commercial longs (+6.4K) and total long flows ➡️ NZD is seeing renewed interest from commercial players — a potential bullish signal. 🔹 5. Trading Outlook 📌 Current Bias: Neutral with short-term bearish tilt, but medium-term bullish reversal risk rising. ➤ Potential setups: Conservative Long Entry: On bullish confirmation at 2.2170 (double bottom or bullish engulfing), target 2.2560–2.2600 Aggressive Short Entry: On pullback to 2.2490–2.2560, with stop above 2.2620, target 2.2280–2.2170 🎯 Seasonal and institutional factors favor NZD strength, but technical structure calls for caution and confirmation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
Bitcoin - Bitcoin holds $100,000 support?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 on the four-hour timeframe and has broken out of its short-term descending channel. We can look for Bitcoin short positions from the supply zone. If this corrective move occurs, we can also look for Bitcoin long positions in the demand zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range. Bitcoin network transaction activity has dropped to its lowest level since October 2023. According to data from The Block, the seven-day moving average of Bitcoin transactions has recently declined to 317,000—marking the lowest point in the past 19 months. This decline comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price still hovers near its all-time highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin Core developers have recently stated that network nodes should not block the relay of low-fee or non-standard transactions if miners are willing to process them. This highlights a shift in Bitcoin’s policy direction and indicates a growing acceptance among some miners of lower-cost transactions. In certain instances, miners’ appetite for transaction fees appears to have diminished. Mononaut, founder of the Mempool project, pointed out that a transaction with an almost-zero fee was recently included in a block. This could signal reduced network activity or a declining need among miners to prioritize high-fee transactions. Currently, only 0.3% of American investors’ total assets are allocated to Bitcoin. Real estate dominates their portfolios, followed by bonds and stocks.This means that Bitcoin accounts for a very small portion of U.S. investor wealth. However, if even a small fraction of capital currently tied up in real estate, stocks, or bonds shifts into Bitcoin in the future, it could have a substantial market impact—an encouraging sign over the long term. The United States has emerged as the dominant force in the Bitcoin ecosystem. A report by River outlines how this dominance has reached its peak. The U.S. holds nearly 40% of the total Bitcoin supply, and American companies account for a staggering 94.8% of public Bitcoin ownership. Additionally, 82% of development funding and approximately 79.2% of Bitcoin ETF ownership originate from the U.S. The country also commands about 36% of the global hash rate. Since 2021, the total value of Bitcoin mined by American companies has reached $42.6 billion, accompanied by over $30 billion in investment into Bitcoin mining infrastructure. The U.S. now hosts more than 150 Bitcoin-related companies and 40 mining sites with capacities exceeding 10 megawatts. Today, nearly two-thirds of all Bitcoin in circulation is held by individuals who rarely—or never—sell their coins. In just the last 30 days, roughly 180,000 Bitcoins have been moved to wallets with historically low selling activity. Meanwhile, whales continue to accumulate Bitcoin at price levels above $100,000.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Will the stock market reach its previous ATH!?The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in the specified pattern. In case of a valid break of this range, I expect a new trend to form. It is better to wait for confirmation on the break in order to control further risk. U.S. President Donald Trump announced that an American delegation will meet with Chinese representatives in London on June 9 to discuss a potential trade agreement. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated, “I’m pleased to announce that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese officials on Monday, June 9, 2025, in London to discuss a trade deal.” He added that he expects the meeting to go “very well.” U.S. stock markets rose on Friday, and Chinese markets are now following suit. The Hang Seng Index has reached its highest level since March. Meanwhile, Amazon has completely halted its hiring budget for office workers in its core retail business. This decision applies only to white-collar staff and excludes warehouse employees and those in its cloud computing division. According to Business Insider, which cited internal company emails, the hiring freeze affects Amazon’s online marketplace, logistics operations, and grocery business. Having doubled its workforce between 2019 and 2021 to 1.6 million, Amazon reduced that number to 1.55 million last year. Since late 2022, the e-commerce giant has laid off at least 27,000 employees. This move comes as the U.S. jobs report released Friday helped ease some concerns, though signs of broader economic challenges remain. Experts suggest that such a hiring freeze could reflect broader economic trends—where mass layoffs are avoided, but hiring slows down significantly. In May, the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in April. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, staying within the narrow range it has held over the past year. The labor market has remained resilient, dismissing fears that tariffs would cause a significant slowdown. So far, tariff-related disruptions have not been severe enough to destabilize the job market—at least not in May. Data indicates that employers continue to refrain from layoffs, even as hiring has slowed considerably compared to the post-pandemic surge. Labor market analysts expect signs of weakness to emerge in the coming months, as businesses become more cautious about hiring due to uncertainty surrounding tariffs—according to recent surveys. For now, however, the labor market remains strong. The absence of red flags in employment may give the Federal Reserve more room to maintain its patient stance on interest rate cuts. This year, Fed officials have kept interest rates higher than average to curb inflation by increasing borrowing costs. The Fed’s dual mandate is to keep inflation low and employment high, and it may opt to cut rates to stimulate the economy if the labor market weakens.Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other FOMC members have said they are waiting to see whether President Trump’s trade wars will stoke inflation, trigger job losses, or both. So far, neither scenario has materialized. Strong labor market data may give them further justification to stay in wait-and-see mode. Rosner wrote, “Given the Fed’s sharp focus on inflation risk management, today’s stronger-than-expected jobs report is unlikely to alter its patient approach. We expect the Fed to remain on hold at this month’s meeting and believe further deterioration
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD Is This the Last Dip Before 1.37?🔹 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (Weekly & Daily Charts) Price has broken above the ascending channel highlighted on the weekly chart. The 1.3545 area is currently acting as dynamic resistance — a weekly close above it is crucial to confirm a breakout. Below, we find a bullish order block (demand zone) around 1.3340 – 1.3280, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level. RSI is neutral, showing no bearish divergence at the moment. 🔹 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercial traders: +823 new longs, +363 new shorts → Neutral to bullish positioning. Commercials remain net short, indicating short-term USD strength potential. EUR FX (inverse proxy for USD): Significant reduction in speculative long positions → Less bullish pressure on the Euro, favoring USD strength. 🔹 3. Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD vs. 33% long. This is a bullish contrarian signal, suggesting potential continuation toward the 1.36–1.37 zone. 🔹 4. Seasonality Historically, June tends to be bearish for GBP/USD over the past 5–10 years. However, the first 10 days of the month often start with bullish momentum before correcting in the second half. 🔹 5. Economic Calendar Today: Construction PMI (GBP), ECB Press Conference (EUR), Unemployment Claims (USD). Tomorrow: High potential volatility across all USD pairs. Watch out — upcoming macro data may strongly impact breakout confirmation. 🔹 6. Operational Outlook Primary Bias: Neutral/Bullish with potential for a technical pullback. 📍 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3545 – 1.3593 (Supply zone + 0.0 fib) Support: 1.3340 – 1.3280 (OB + 0.5/0.618 fib) 🧠 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation: Retest of 1.3340 → long targeting 1.3590 / 1.3680 Confirmation on daily close above 1.3550 🔻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Retracement: Rejection below 1.3550 + USD macro strength → drop toward 1.3280 If that breaks → extended move to 1.3170 / 1.3150
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Corn at the Cliff Edge: Bearish Breakdown or Smart Money Trap?📉 1. Price Action & Technical Context (Weekly Chart – ZC1!) Price is currently sitting around 439'0, after rejecting the 462'2 supply zone (gray block) and confirming rejection from the macro supply area between 472'6–480'0 (red block). The last four weekly candles show a failed recovery attempt (three green candles trapped between two strong red ones), culminating in a bearish breakout below the intermediate demand zone (445'0–442'0). Now, price is back inside the key demand zone between 439'0–433'4, an area with heavy volume and previous significant lows. 🔍 Technical takeaway: Bearish breakout confirmed. Price is testing the last major weekly support before opening the door toward the yearly lows (~420'0). 📊 2. Commitment of Traders (COT Report – May 27, 2025) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Long: 324,377 (▼ -17,952) Short: 344,710 (▼ -9,171) Net Position: -20,333 → Bearish, but the unwinding of both sides suggests profit-taking. Commercials (Institutions): Long: 766,211 (▲ +12,588) Short: 713,647 (▼ -962) Net Position: +52,564 → Increasing → Institutional accumulation. 🔎 Key observation: Commercials are increasing their net longs, while speculators are reducing exposure. This diverges from price action and may signal institutional accumulation under 440. 📉 3. Net Positioning vs Price (COT Chart) The chart shows a clear decline in speculative longs since March, with a new low this week. Meanwhile, commercials are gradually increasing their long exposure, positioning themselves against the current bearish trend. 💡 Combined view: While price keeps dropping, the "smart money" is accumulating → possible bottom forming, though not yet confirmed technically. 🌾 4. Seasonality June Performance: 20-Year Avg: -4.25% 15-Year Avg: +12.31% 5-Year Avg: +1.15% 2-Year Avg: +28.61% 📈 Seasonal Conclusion: The seasonal bias has turned strongly bullish in the last 2–5 years. June–July is often a rally period for Corn following the late-May bottoms — likely tied to U.S. planting season dynamics.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EUR/USD Reversal Imminent? 5 Powerful ReasonsEUR/USD – Tactical Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key Reversal EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal. 📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D) The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550. Recent price behavior indicates: A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection. A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum. The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high. Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area. 🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning USD Index: Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD. Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation. → USD strength building. EUR Futures: Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737). The net long position in EUR continues to weaken. → Increasing risk of EUR retracement. 📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June. The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks. 📊 4. Retail Sentiment Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50). However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal. → A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality. 🧭 5. Macro Context Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth. U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative. → This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term. ✅ Trading Outlook 📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective) 📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180 📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000 ❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460 🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
USD/CHF Setup Breaking Down: Don’t Get Caught Long This TrapUSD/CHF is currently trading at a critical technical and macro-structural juncture. Price is hovering within the weekly support area between 0.8050 and 0.8200, a zone that has historically triggered significant bullish reactions. However, the latest weekly candle closed below the psychological 0.8200 level, showing a clear rejection of upper resistance and signaling a lack of buying strength on the U.S. dollar side. This weak closure undermines the bullish structure and opens the door for a potential continuation of the downtrend—especially if price breaks below the 0.8150 mark on the daily or H4 timeframe. From a seasonal standpoint, June has historically been a bearish month for USD/CHF. Monthly average returns over the past 20, 15, 10, and 5 years confirm steady downside pressure on the dollar against the Swiss franc. Only the 2-year average shows a slight positive bias, but it remains an outlier against the broader seasonal trend. This supports the idea that the recent weakness is not only technical but also cyclical in nature. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reinforces this bearish view. On the Swiss franc side, commercial traders (typically the most informed and hedging-oriented participants) are heavily net long, while non-commercial traders (speculators) remain significantly net short. This imbalance is often seen around reversal points and may indicate rising CHF strength. On the U.S. dollar side, positioning is far more balanced—the Dollar Index COT shows a neutral stance, with non-commercials slightly net long but without any dominant momentum. This confirms there’s currently no structural strength behind the dollar to justify a meaningful rebound in USD/CHF. Lastly, retail sentiment provides a classic contrarian signal: over 90% of retail traders are long on USD/CHF, with only 10% short. This extreme imbalance typically occurs ahead of bearish breakdowns, as institutional players tend to fade overcrowded retail positions. In conclusion, USD/CHF remains vulnerable to further downside. The weekly price action is weak, seasonal trends are dollar-negative, COT positioning favors CHF strength, and retail sentiment is extremely long-biased. All factors align toward a likely bearish continuation, with technical targets in the 0.8080–0.8050 range. The only alternative scenario would require a strong H4/H1 bullish reaction with a reclaim of 0.8220—but at this stage, that appears unlikely without a major macro catalyst.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: 110k RejectionAfter the powerful rally that began in the last quarter of 2024, Bitcoin is now at a critical market juncture. The price has once again reached the 106,000–110,000 USD zone, an area that already showed strong signs of distribution back in February and March 2025. This isn’t just a typical resistance level—it’s a psychologically loaded zone, marked by previous highs and repeated selling pressure. In May, the monthly candle revealed a clear rejection from this zone: a prominent upper wick and a bearish body, signaling the bulls' struggle to sustain new highs. This behavior suggests the beginning of a profit-taking phase or, more likely, a medium-term consolidation. The picture becomes even more complex when we look at the COT Report dated May 27, 2025. Non-commercial institutional traders—speculative funds, hedge funds, and portfolio managers—have significantly increased their short positions, now exceeding 26,800 contracts. Meanwhile, long positions are hovering around 24,500, resulting in a net bearish exposure. The message is clear: smart money isn’t buying the breakout—it's selling into it. Seasonality analysis reinforces this narrative. Historically, June tends to be a weak month for Bitcoin, often followed by renewed strength in the next quarter. The 2025 seasonal curve has mirrored the bullish pattern of 2021 up to May, but now—consistent with historical patterns—is showing signs of slowing. This supports the idea that the market might need a breather before potentially rallying again in Q3. From a technical standpoint, the key levels are well defined. The 95,000–97,000 USD area is the first dynamic support zone, where the price might find short-term relief. However, the more significant support lies between 82,000 and 85,000 USD—this is the origin of the current rally and aligns with the old breakout structure. A return to this level would represent a healthy and natural correction within a still structurally bullish long-term context. In summary, the current outlook calls for caution. Momentum is fading, seasonality is unfavorable, and institutional players are trimming long exposure while adding to shorts. Until the price can consolidate above 110,500 USD, the dominant scenario remains a corrective pullback, with interim targets at 95k and potential drops toward the 85k zone. However, if the market surprises with a strong weekly close above the highs, it could pave the way for a new leg up toward the 125,000–135,000 USD range—potentially fueled by macro catalysts such as ETF inflows, Fed narratives, or broader adoption.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
XAUUSD - Gold awaits NFP!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the hourly timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50. We should wait for a valid breakout of the pattern we identified yesterday, from which we had a Fick break above. We can enter the trade after it breaks in the formed pattern, and on the other hand, if gold corrects towards the demand zone, we can buy it in the short term with a reward at an appropriate risk. Gold came under downward pressure amid renewed optimism regarding U.S.-China trade talks. Although prices surged to a four-week high earlier in the day due to strong demand from Asian and European buyers, a wave of selling during U.S. trading hours reversed part of that gain. This shift in momentum coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields and a boost in market sentiment following a phone call between the presidents of China and the United States. While no official statement has been issued yet, the decision to initiate a new round of high-level negotiations was seen as a positive signal. In recent months, gold has become a key indicator for gauging geopolitical and trade-related risks, having previously surged to an all-time high of $3,500 after the “Freedom Day” tariffs were implemented. Despite ongoing concerns over Ukraine, Iran, and the growing U.S. fiscal deficit—which provide fundamental support for gold—the metal’s inability to break above the key resistance level of $3,437 has cast doubt on the short-term bullish outlook. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has projected that the upcoming U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for May will show a 125,000 increase in jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, and monthly wage growth is estimated at 0.3%. The bank also anticipates a 10,000-job decline in the public sector, largely due to tariff-related policies and reduced hiring. Overall, Goldman Sachs expects the report to be balanced and free of surprises, which should encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain its current policy stance. Although gold has managed to stabilize above $3,000 per ounce in recent weeks, many investors remain focused on reclaiming the historic peak reached in April. According to one research firm, it’s only a matter of time before that level is tested and broken again. In the annual “Gold Focus 2025” report published Thursday by the UK-based firm Metals Focus, analysts stated that gold retains strong momentum for further gains in 2026. They forecast that the average gold price this year could reach an unprecedented $3,210, with new highs likely in the second half of the year. In an interview with Kitco News, Metals Focus CEO Philip Newman said it is difficult to envision a scenario that would derail the current bull market. While this perspective isn’t included in their formal forecasts, he believes the rally could extend into 2026. Newman added, “If you look at what’s happening across the global economy, all the ingredients for a structural bull market are present.” He highlighted that one of gold’s unique traits is how quickly investors adapt to new price levels, often converting previous resistance levels into future support. A year ago, he admitted he would have expected $3,000 to trigger widespread profit-taking. However, despite ongoing economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability, investors have not been discouraged by current price levels. Newman emphasized that what makes 2025 distinct is that new investors are just now entering the market. While gold has been rallying since 2023, much of the demand until recently came from central banks and Asian markets—particularly China. Newman noted that only in Q4 of last year and early this year did retail investors begin to decisively adopt a bullish stance. “We’ve seen strong growth in investment demand this year,” he said, “but there’s still a large amount of capital that hasn’t entered the market yet. This is not a bubble—this is a well-supported, structurally sound market.” He concluded by identifying changing perceptions of the U.S. dollar as a major driver behind increased gold investment.While the dollar remains a traditional safe haven, ongoing trade tensions and unsustainable government debt levels have eroded market confidence, prompting investors to seek safety and diversification through gold.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue Its Rise?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the one-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. We should wait for a valid breakout of the specified pattern and then enter the trade in the formed pattern. If gold corrects towards the demand zone, we can buy it in the short term with appropriate risk-reward. According to the latest ADP report, private-sector employers in the United States added just 37,000 new jobs in May, marking a decline from 60,000 in April and reaching the lowest level in two years. While ADP data is typically interpreted with caution, many economists still anticipate that Friday’s official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report will reflect stronger employment growth. President Donald Trump seized on this data to renew his criticism of the Federal Reserve for not lowering interest rates to support job creation. Some analysts argue that if the ADP figures are taken as an indicator, Trump’s tariffs may have impacted the labor market sooner than experts expected—though that remains a significant “if.” ADP, a payroll services provider, announced on Wednesday that private employers added only 37,000 jobs in May, down from April’s 60,000 and the lowest number since March 2023. According to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal, this figure falls well short of the expected 110,000 job increase. If this sharp slowdown in job growth is mirrored in the government’s official report, it may indicate that businesses have drastically reduced hiring in response to the uncertainty caused by Trump’s frequently shifting trade policies. Forecasts have long predicted that higher inflation and slower job growth could result from trade conflicts. However, many experts believe the true effects will become visible in the summer, rather than being fully reflected in May’s data. Additionally, many economists regard ADP as an imprecise leading indicator of the more comprehensive BLS report. Other labor market surveys have thus far shown greater resilience in employment conditions. Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Economics, wrote: “As always, we recommend ignoring the headline message of the ADP jobs report, primarily because its recent track record has been very poor.” Analysts widely expect Friday’s BLS report to show that the labor market remained stable in May, with employers adding approximately 125,000 jobs. Continuing his criticisms, Trump again used the ADP figures to attack Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates this year. In a post on Truth Social, Trump compared the Fed to the European Central Bank, which has already lowered rates nine times. The Federal Reserve, in contrast, has maintained the federal funds rate at elevated levels since January, aiming to reduce inflation to its 2% annual target by keeping upward pressure on borrowing costs. This policy is being implemented amid persistent uncertainty about the broader economic impact of the tariffs. Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in order to reduce borrowing costs, stimulate economic growth, and prevent a potential recession. He wrote: “The ADP numbers are out!!! ‘Late’ Powell must cut rates now. He’s unbelievable!!! Europe has cut nine times!” Meanwhile, the latest edition of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book was released. Half of the Federal Reserve districts reported slight to moderate declines in economic activity, while three districts reported no change and three reported modest growth. All districts cited high levels of economic and political uncertainty. Reports on consumer spending varied. Home sales remained largely unchanged. While employment remained steady, hiring was conducted cautiously due to the uncertain outlook. Tariffs were reported to have caused moderate price increases, with rising costs increasingly passed on to consumers. Manufacturing activity was slightly weakened by tariffs, and businesses adopted a more cautious approach to investment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin & The FED June 2025 (Beyond $200,000 New All-Time High)Before a major bullish event, the market tends to go sideways or into a retrace. Since the event is bullish, prices grow. Preceding the event the market gives out everything that isn't what will happen after the event, like a detox. Now, Bitcoin is a very strange monster, kind of like a virus but in the good sense of the word. It changes, mutates, evolves, upgrades outdated decaying systems. So it isn't likely to crash just because the market is about to turn ultra-bullish. It is the other way around, since everybody already knows, nobody is willing to sell. In reality, everybody is buying like there is no tomorrow. So Bitcoin can go sideways or into retrace until the Fed announces that it is cutting whatever interest, you know these things. So when they do their thing, the market will be ultra-bullish and that's when Bitcoin will produce its bullish continuation. Right now there is a period of consolidation which is being used by the whales as accumulation. Remember when I was saying you will look like a genius for buying below 80K? It is the same situation all over again. When Bitcoin is trading at $150,000 or $200,000, you will look like a genius for buying below $110,000. That's the way it is. So, slightly bearish before the event. There can be a market flush but these are going to be limited because Bitcoins can be lost forever. It is a fight between whales. So if some whales decide to manipulate the market trying to cause some panic, other whales will be happy to buy everything at the lows and prices recover. This means that Bitcoin will be consolidating until the announcement, after the announcement; "We will cut rates certain numbers of points..." Then all heaven will break loose. It will be money-up good news. Do what you do, just be good, know that Bitcoin and Crypto will grow there is no way to stop this wave we are all going up. Those that were hating are going to be hated by their own selves because nobody will know who they are. We are going to be party-rocking like a rockstar because not only Bitcoin but we are going on a global bull market. You can bet on it. And if you do, you will be glad you did and you will be extremely happy with the result. There is no way to stop Bitcoin. There is no way to stop this wave. The entire Cryptocurrency market will do awesome in late 2025. Are you prepared? Thank you for reading. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
11
XAUUSD - Gold is on the verge of a very important week!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I predict the path ahead for gold to be upward and if the resistance level is broken, we can look for buying opportunities. If gold corrects, we can also buy it with a reward at an appropriate risk. Gold prices experienced a mild decline over the past week, with market sentiment shaped less by fundamental shifts and more by mixed messages and scattered commentary around tariffs.Despite the noise, many traders chose to rely on data and technical charts rather than reacting emotionally—data that painted a more subdued picture than the headlines suggested. Rich Checkan, CEO of Asset Strategies International, responded confidently in a recent survey, predicting further gains in gold. “The trajectory for gold is clearly upward. Prices have stabilized around the $3,300 level and appear ready for a new rally, especially if the appellate court’s ruling on tariffs is upheld,” he said. Checkan also pointed to another macroeconomic factor that could support gold: “A new tax bill, described as large and costly, is set to be voted on in the Senate soon. If passed, it will likely widen the budget deficit, which historically leads to increased liquidity and rising inflation—a favorable environment for gold.” On Friday, the PCE inflation report showed easing price pressures, though not enough to put the Federal Reserve at ease. Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year in April—matching expectations and slightly down from 2.7% the previous month. The headline PCE also increased 2.1% annually, just below the forecast of 2.2%. The key point: these data reflect the first month in which Trump’s new tariffs were active, yet there’s little evidence so far that they’ve caused inflation to rise. Still, the disinflationary trend remains sluggish and distant from the Fed’s 2% target. In its latest minutes, the Fed warned that inflation may prove more persistent than previously thought. Nick Timiraos of The Wall Street Journal, despite the seemingly positive PCE numbers, issued a cautionary note with four key insights: • The inflationary impact of tariffs is expected to begin showing up from May and be fully reflected in June’s data. This could accelerate goods price increases and disrupt the path of disinflation. • Last year’s monthly PCE figures were particularly weak (May: 0%, June: 0.1%, July: 0.2%). As these drop out of the annual calculation, even if monthly gains remain steady, YoY rates could rise mathematically. • The three-month average for Core PCE from May to October 2024 was only 0.1%. If upcoming monthly figures hit 0.2%, annual disinflation could stall or even reverse. • While the latest report is encouraging, the effects of tariffs and the removal of last year’s weak data could complicate the inflation trajectory. Looking ahead, market attention will focus heavily on a suite of crucial U.S. labor market indicators. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is due Tuesday, private sector employment data (ADP) on Wednesday, and jobless claims on Thursday. However, the most anticipated release will be Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for May—widely viewed as a key factor influencing rate expectations. Alongside labor data, markets will also watch other critical economic reports. The ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and the ISM Services PMI on Wednesday will offer broader insight into U.S. business activity. In the realm of monetary policy, interest rate decisions from the Bank of Canada (Wednesday) and the European Central Bank (Thursday) are expected to trigger notable movements in the currency and gold markets.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin reach $120,000?!Bitcoin is in its short-term descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between the EMA50 and EMA200. Personally, I would look to sell Bitcoin at a target of $100,000. Either from the channel ceiling or after an invalid breakout of the specified channel. If this corrective move occurs, Bitcoin buying opportunities can be sought within the demand zone. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range. The Bitcoin 2025 Conference, widely regarded as the largest global event dedicated to Bitcoin and blockchain technology, took place from May 27 to 29 at the Venetian Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. First launched in 2019 and held annually since, the conference has become the central meeting point for Bitcoin enthusiasts and professionals, offering a platform for knowledge exchange, ideation, and innovation within the Bitcoin ecosystem. With over 30,000 attendees, 400 speakers, and participation from around 5,000 companies, this year’s event played a significant role in advancing the global adoption of Bitcoin—often referred to as “hyperbitcoinization.” The 2025 edition covered not only technical subjects such as Layer 2 scaling solutions and privacy enhancements, but also broader themes like institutional adoption, strategic Bitcoin reserves, and its implications for financial freedom on a global scale.From an economic perspective, there was a strong emphasis on Bitcoin’s role as a store of value amid inflationary pressures and unstable monetary policies. Forecasts presented by key figures such as Michael Saylor and Paolo Ardoino pointed to Bitcoin’s potential to emerge as a foundational asset within global financial systems. These projections were further supported by the expansion of the M2 money supply in 2024 and expectations for continued growth into 2025. In addition to highlighting opportunities, the event also addressed the challenges facing Bitcoin. One major concern was the lack of clear legal and regulatory frameworks in certain countries—a topic addressed by Caitlin Long and other speakers. Such regulatory uncertainty could hinder broader Bitcoin adoption. Moreover, Bitcoin’s price volatility—highlighted by a 3.4% decline in the weeks leading up to the conference—raised questions about the market’s long-term stability. Meanwhile, Coinbase reported that the repayment of debts related to the bankrupt FTX exchange could act as a $5 billion liquidity injection into the crypto market. This development is expected to boost capital inflows and potentially draw major institutional players back into the space. According to Coinbase, as of May 30, the “FTX Recovery Trust” has begun its second phase of repayments, distributing over $5 billion in stablecoins to creditors. These payouts are being processed over three days via the BitGo and Kraken platforms. Unlike the first round in February, this phase involves only stablecoin disbursements rather than a mix of crypto and cash—enabling recipients to reinvest their funds more quickly and efficiently. Additionally, U.S.-based companies currently hold 94.8% of all Bitcoin owned by publicly traded firms. The U.S. also commands 36% of the global Bitcoin hash rate, underscoring its dominance in mining activities. So far, 36 U.S. states have enacted pro-Bitcoin legislation, signaling a growing legal endorsement of the cryptocurrency across the country. This level of concentration—in ownership, regulatory leadership, and mining capacity—could position the U.S. to play a more decisive role in shaping future global Bitcoin regulations.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Will the stock market continue to rise!?The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading within the specified range. In case of a valid break of this range, I expect a new trend to form. In case of corrective movements towards the demand zone, we can buy Nasdaq in that range with an appropriate reward for the risk. A recent report from Bank of America reveals that investors are actively repositioning in global markets. For the second consecutive week, U.S.equities experienced capital outflows, while European stocks saw inflows for the seventh straight week. Digital assets attracted $2.6 billion in inflows—the largest amount since January. In contrast, Japanese equities recorded the largest weekly outflow in history, while emerging markets equities attracted their highest inflows of 2025. Meanwhile, emerging markets debt also posted its strongest inflows since January 2023. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, speaking at the 2025 Reagan National Economic Forum, warned that China will not yield to U.S. trade pressure. He urged that the U.S. must first address its internal challenges, including reforming laws, taxes, immigration, education, and healthcare systems. Dimon also underscored the importance of preserving military alliances. He noted that China is a serious and potential rival, and if the United States fails to maintain its position as the world’s dominant economic and military power over the next 40 years, the dollar will no longer serve as the global reserve currency. Having just returned from China, Dimon added, “The Chinese are not afraid; don’t expect them to bow to America.” Currently, markets are pricing in two interest rate cuts totaling 50 basis points by the end of 2025—a forecast aligned with the Federal Reserve’s official dot plot projections. Additionally, the latest FOMC minutes, which revealed policymakers’ concerns over persistent inflationary pressures, played a significant role in shaping these expectations. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that he would support rate cuts later this year if tariffs remain around an average of 10%. However, his support hinges on inflation moving toward the Fed’s 2% target and the labor market maintaining its current strength. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley projects that the U.S. dollar could weaken by approximately 9% by mid-2026, citing a slowdown in U.S. economic growth and an anticipated 175 basis point reduction in the Fed’s interest rates. The bank also forecasts that 10-year Treasury yields will reach 4% by the end of 2025 but fall sharply in 2026 as rates decline further. Both Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan hold a bearish outlook on the dollar, expecting safe-haven currencies such as the euro, yen, and Swiss franc to benefit the most from its weakness. In this context, market participants are closely watching key economic data in the week ahead. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release on Monday, followed by the Non-Manufacturing PMI on Wednesday. However, the main highlight will be Friday’s May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which has exceeded expectations over the past two months. A similar result this time would signal continued strength in the labor market. Given the Fed’s focus on inflation risks, special attention will likely be paid to the average hourly earnings growth. If wage growth remains above 3%, the market may begin to reprice some of its expectations for rate cuts—especially if the ISM reports also indicate improved economic activity in line with strong S&P Global readings. Such a scenario could pave the way for a renewed strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Alongside the data releases, a series of speeches from key Federal Reserve officials—including Goolsbee (Chicago), Bostic (Atlanta), Logan (Dallas), and Harker (Philadelphia)—are expected. These remarks could further shape market expectations regarding the future path of monetary policy.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities. The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend. According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers. The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets. Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda. Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%. Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks. In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND