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USD/JPY Under Pressure: Yen Strengthens Amid Bearish MomentumThe USD/JPY pair exhibits a clear bearish inclination, driven by a combination of economic and market factors that are strengthening the Japanese Yen and weakening the US Dollar. Currently, the pair has dropped to approximately 155.60, recording a 0.44% loss for the day, with sellers evidently attempting to push the price further toward critical support levels between 154.90 and 153.15. The downward pressure is amplified by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent positive data such as improvements in Japan’s core machinery orders, signaling a recovery in capital expenditure. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the Trump administration contributes to a negative climate for the US Dollar, which is already under pressure from a recent slowdown in buying flows. From a technical perspective, the pair has encountered significant resistance in the 156.55-156.60 region, a level that halted previous recovery attempts and now acts as a key barrier. For a meaningful trend reversal, a sustained breakout above this resistance, followed by consolidation above 157.00, would be necessary to pave the way toward recent highs at 158.00 or even 158.85. However, the likelihood of a downward breakout seems more tangible, considering that the support at 155.25 represents the last defense before a drop toward the psychological level of 155.00 and further toward 154.60 and 153.30. The current market environment, characterized by reduced trading volumes due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, suggests caution for traders, as dynamics could quickly shift with the return of liquidity and the announcement of potential monetary or political decisions in both Japan and the US. The combination of positive economic data for Japan and expectations of higher rates positions the Yen in a place of strength, while the Dollar may continue to struggle without a clear positive catalyst. Holding below 155.00 would be a significant signal for bears, indicating an extended downward trajectory toward deeper support levels.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD - Gold will stabilize above $2700?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the ceiling of the channel, you can look for positions to sell it towards the midline of the channel. Losing the bottom of the channel will lead to the continuation of the downward trend. The gold market had a strong start to the first full trading week of 2025. However, as the week progressed, optimism among traders grew, with predictions indicating a potential rally in gold prices ahead of Trump’s second presidential term. Nevertheless, the market remains cautious about upcoming developments. Rich Checkan, the president and COO of “International Assets Strategies,” believes: “Unless there are any major disruptions during Monday’s inauguration ceremony, I expect gold prices to remain relatively unchanged next week. Market participants are waiting for more clarity on President Trump’s economic policies and their impact on key economic variables. However, one week is insufficient to see tangible effects, and a longer timeframe is needed for better evaluation.” Bart Melek, the managing director and head of commodity strategy at “TD Securities,” highlighted the potential for higher tariffs and their inflationary effects, predicting a slight dip in gold prices. He stated: “If the new president addresses tariffs, signaling higher inflation, and the Federal Reserve takes a more serious stance on its inflation target, gold prices could decline moderately.” At the beginning of 2025, gold is trading near $2,700 per ounce, while Bitcoin has approached the $100,000 threshold, placing both assets at the center of attention in emerging markets. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, forecasts that a correction in stock markets could drive gold prices above $4,000 this year. He remarked: “Gold reaching $4,000 will eventually happen. The unlimited supply of fiat currencies and the limited supply of gold, similar to Bitcoin, make this likely. However, my concern is that a natural and modest correction in the stock market, which is currently overvalued, could push gold to such levels.” McGlone pointed out that the ratio of stock market value to U.S. GDP is around 2.2x — an unprecedented figure in the last 100 years. He emphasized that even a 10% correction in the stock market could provide the necessary momentum for gold prices to surge.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's new decisions!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and has left its descending channel. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. In recent days, the value of the U.S. dollar has risen, and Treasury yields have also increased. These developments are primarily driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts this year. President Trump’s promises to raise tariffs, reduce corporate taxes, and deregulate industries have sparked concerns about rising inflation, which was already persistent even before these policies were implemented. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy appears robust, with strong labor market performance in November and December, indicating that the Federal Reserve may not feel pressured to accelerate interest rate cuts. According to projections, investors anticipate that interest rates will decrease by approximately 0.4% by December 2025. This expectation persists despite reports suggesting the new U.S. administration will implement tariff hikes gradually and December inflation data came in lower than expected. The U.S. Tax Foundation estimates that if the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 20% tariff on imports from other countries, the average tariff rate would climb to 17.7%. This would represent the highest level recorded since the 1930s. Trump has pledged to impose steep tariffs on goods imported from various nations; however, economists have warned about the potential consequences of such policies. In a recent Reuters survey, all participating economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates within the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its January 29 meeting. Additionally, 61 out of 103 economists expect the rate to decrease to 4.00%-4.25% by March. The survey results also reveal that 65 out of 102 economists believe the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates no more than twice this year (compared to 41 out of 97 in the December survey who held this view). Moreover, 40 out of 49 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast that U.S. inflation in 2025 will likely exceed expectations. Scott Bassant, the nominee for Treasury Secretary in President-elect Trump’s administration, described China’s economy as being in recession. Taking a more pessimistic tone, Bassant labeled China as one of the most unbalanced economies in the world, highlighting the country’s prioritization of military strength and efforts to maintain growth by exporting cheap goods to the rest of the world.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Nasdaq index path, after the inauguration!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index corrects towards the demand zone, you can look for the next Nasdaq buy positions with the appropriate risk reward. Nasdaq being in the supply range will provide us with the conditions to sell it. As markets prepare for Donald Trump’s inauguration, the dollar has weakened slightly. Early signals suggest that no significant changes in tariff policies are imminent, leading to a minor dip in the dollar’s value. Over the weekend, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a positive conversation. Following the call, Trump tweeted, “Just had an excellent conversation with Xi Jinping of China. This was very good for both China and the U.S. I expect us to solve many issues together, and we’ll start immediately.” Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq Technology Index has reached its highest level in two years. Bloomberg data shows the 30-day correlation index between the world’s largest cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq stands at approximately 0.70, indicating closely aligned movements between the two assets. On another front, Jared Bernstein, head of Joe Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers, has warned that the incoming Trump administration’s potential interference in Federal Reserve interest rate policies could risk a resurgence in inflation. Bernstein emphasized the importance of maintaining the Fed’s independence and noted that executive actions should not influence interest rate decisions. TD Securities predicts that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady during the first half of this year. However, it expects rate cuts to resume in the second half, with the terminal rate reaching the low 3% range. This strategy reflects the economy’s need to digest Trump’s new policies, particularly on tariffs and immigration. This week’s economic calendar is relatively light.Both the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq will be closed on Monday, January 20, 2025, in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Later in the week, key economic data will be released. On Thursday, the U.S. weekly jobless claims report will be published, followed by preliminary S&P Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data and existing home sales figures on Friday. Bank of America forecasts that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 4.75% this year, with the potential to surpass 5% depending on Federal Reserve decisions. However, it sees a low probability of yields exceeding 5.25%. The bank cites a strong macroeconomic backdrop and a hawkish Federal Reserve, suggesting that any rate hikes will depend on inflation data. Bank of America also notes that yields near 5% could represent a compelling buying opportunity, provided the Consumer Price Index remains stable or declines slightly.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold reached above $2700!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1-hour time frame and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the top of the channel, we can look for positions to sell it at the target of $2,700. The loss of the midline of the channel will lead to the continuation of this corrective process. Gold is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, although this growth may not match the impressive performance seen in 2024. Juan Carlos Artigas, the Head of Research at the World Gold Council, discussed the reasons behind this trend and outlined three possible scenarios for gold’s future in an interview with Kitco News. Artigas attributed gold’s record-breaking performance in 2024, which included 40 new highs, to the metal’s dual role as an investment asset and a consumer commodity. He stated, “Gold is an extremely effective risk management tool. Investors have turned to it due to rising market volatility and geopolitical risks.” For 2025, Artigas predicted three distinct scenarios for the gold market: • Limited growth with low volatility: This would occur if expectations for interest rates, inflation, and economic growth remain stable. • Downward pressure: If interest rates remain high or rise further, gold’s investment appeal could diminish. Additionally, weak economic growth might lower consumer demand. • Significant growth: In the event of heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks, investors would likely view gold as a safe haven, driving prices higher. Artigas cautioned that government debt could emerge as a “black swan” event in 2025. He explained that rising global government debt levels and difficulties in securing financing pose a significant risk to the global economy. He further emphasized that gold’s performance against various currencies highlights its role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. For example, gold’s returns against the Turkish lira reached 50% in 2024 due to the lira’s depreciation against the US dollar. Additionally, Artigas pointed to increased demand from central banks and Western investors in the second half of 2024. This surge in demand was attributed to lower central bank interest rates and reduced opportunity costs for holding gold. Among all commodities, gold remains one of the few assets that analysts at BMO Capital Markets are optimistic about for 2025. They predict that central banks will continue purchasing gold to reduce reliance on the US dollar. Furthermore, BMO expects gold to remain a dynamic asset, serving as an effective hedge against inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and stock market risks. Next week, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the next President of the United States. Meanwhile, the global community is bracing for the new administration, which has announced plans to impose tariffs to promote and protect domestic policies under the “America First” agenda. BMO analysts believe the Trump administration will be “inherently” inflationary. Their report noted, “The new administration has highlighted two clear policies that will dominate Trump’s second term. The first is that 2025 will be a year of tariff increases. Since tariffs function as a domestic tax on consumption borne by consumers, the economic consensus is that tariffs are inherently stagflationary.” They added, “The second key policy involves continued increases in government spending. Trump won the election on promises of tax cuts for corporations and individuals. According to an analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, these promises are expected to add approximately $7.75 trillion to the US national debt between 2026 and 2035.” BMO analysts also noted that rising inflationary pressures will likely lead to a decline in real interest rates, eroding the appeal of short-term bonds, which were a favored risk-free option in the previous year.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators. In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively. The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices. The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day. OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026. Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD - which direction will the Canadian dollar go?The USDCAD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is moving within the range. The correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying position. The upward movement of this currency pair will make its selling positions attractive. Canada has initiated efforts to mitigate the economic impacts of new U.S. tariffs. These measures include the creation of a critical minerals management unit and defense procurement activities. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau emphasized that Canada would respond firmly and decisively if the U.S. imposes tariffs. Bloomberg reported that Canada is prepared to impose tariffs on $105 billion worth of American goods should the U.S. act first. Quebec’s Premier stated that no official announcements about retaliatory actions would be made until Trump’s plans are clearer, but no options are off the table. Ontario’s Premier added that any retaliatory measures against the U.S. must be stringent. Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, campaigned on promises such as imposing heavy import tariffs, tightening immigration policies, reducing regulations, and downsizing the government.However, the economy he is set to oversee may require a different approach from the policies implemented in 2017. Currently, the U.S. economy is growing at an above-average pace, unemployment is near full employment, and inflationary pressures remain significant. This suggests that the U.S. economy might not need fiscal stimulus measures like tax cuts. Furthermore, high asset valuations and rising bond yields could expose the economy to sharper corrections. When Trump took office in 2017, the U.S. economy was still recovering from the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Policies such as tax cuts and import tariffs had varying impacts then. However, today, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, mortgage rates are near 7%, and government bond yields are close to 5%. These rising yields may reflect market concerns about inflation control and America’s fiscal discipline. In a recent Reuters survey, 25 out of 31 economists predicted that the Bank of Canada would cut interest rates by 0.25% at its January 29 meeting, while the remaining six expected rates to stay unchanged. Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that quantitative tightening (QT) is expected to conclude in the first half of 2025. He noted that ending QT would require settlement balances to rise to a range of CAD 50-70 billion, up from the previous estimate of CAD 20-60 billion. Treasury bond purchases are set to commence in the last quarter of this year, initially in small volumes. Following the release of recent data, projections for real personal consumption expenditures in Q4 have risen from 3.3% to 3.7%, while real government spending growth for the same period increased from 2.9% to 3%. However, forecasts for real private domestic investment growth have been revised downward from -0.4% to -0.8%. In its updated forecast, Wells Fargo indicated that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates twice this year by 0.25%, once in September and again in December. Previously, three rate cuts were anticipated for the year.
Short
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Bullish Momentum Eyes $2,790The analysis of XAU/USD highlights a strong bullish momentum in the short term, with gold prices reaching a one-month high above $2,700 on January 16, 2025. This rally was supported by contrasting U.S. economic data: while consumer spending showed strength, the increase in unemployment claims contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Optimism regarding a possible Federal Reserve rate cut, driven by cooling inflation, has further strengthened positive sentiment toward gold, which has posted three consecutive sessions of gains. From a technical perspective, the breakout above the key resistance level of $2,697 opens the door to a potential target of $2,740, reinforcing the current bullish trend. However, traders remain focused on upcoming economic events, including the Federal Reserve's rate decision at the end of January and the release of CPI and Non-Farm Payrolls data in early February, which could significantly impact market sentiment. Expectations suggest that a potential rate cut or weak macroeconomic data could continue to support gold prices, while signs of economic strength or a rate hike might trigger bearish pressure. In the medium term, gold could fluctuate between $2,650 and $2,800, with the market remaining sensitive to monetary policy developments and inflation dynamics. In the long term, potential geopolitical stabilization and a global economic recovery could reduce interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, bringing prices to a range between $2,500 and $2,600.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/GBP: Ready to reach the level 0.83!The EUR/GBP exchange rate is currently in a bearish phase, trading near 0.8440 as of January 15, 2025. The key resistance level at 0.8445, which has been a significant barrier since September, has once again hindered upward attempts. The recent downward pressure has been influenced by the halt in the rally of UK gilt yields, following weaker-than-expected inflation data. This factor, combined with growing concerns about stagflation in the UK, creates an unfavorable environment for the Pound, increasing the likelihood of a dovish stance from the Bank of England. On the European side, the stabilization of inflation in the Eurozone provides relative support for the Euro, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment on the EUR/GBP pair. Key upcoming events in the short term include the BoE rate decision on January 25, 2025, which could significantly impact the Pound: a more accommodative stance would further weaken the British currency, favoring an upward movement in the pair. This will be followed by the Eurozone GDP data release on February 2, 2025, and the PMI results for both the UK and the Eurozone in early February, with the potential to influence market dynamics depending on the relative strength of their economies. Market sentiment remains oriented toward short-term stability, with limited movements expected until new significant signals emerge from economic data or central bank decisions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
Aussie rises after US core CPI declines to 3.2%The Australian dollar is higher for a third consecutive trading day. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6233, up 0.63% at the time of writing. The US inflation report for December was a mixed bag, as headline CPI rose while the core rate declined. Headline CPI rose to 2.9% y/y from 2.7% in November, matching the market estimate. Monthly, headline CPI rose to 0.4%, up from 0.3% and above the market estimate of 0.3%. The more important story was the decline in core CPI, which excludes food and energy and is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve than the headline data. Core CPI eased to 3.2% y/y in December, down from 3.3% over the past three months and below the market estimate of 3.3%.  Monthly, core CPI ticked lower to 0.2% in December, down from 0.3% a month earlier and in line with the market estimate. The decline in core CPI was small but still significant, as the core rate showed downward movement after remaining unchanged for three months. Investors responded by raising the probability of a quarter-point cut in March at 29%, up from 19% prior to the inflation release, according to CME's FedWatch. The Fed meets at the end of the month and is virtually certain to hold rates. Australia releases the December employment report early on Thursday. Australia's labor market remains solid, although the economy as a whole is struggling. Job growth increased by a strong 35.6 thousand in November, beating expectations. Will the positive trend continue? The market estimate for December stands at 15 thousand, which would mark a nine-month low. The unemployment rate has been low and fell to an eight-month low in November at 3.9%. It is expected to creep up to 4.0% in December. The Reserve Bank of Australia meets on Feb. 18 and the strength of the labor market is a key consideration in the central bank's decision-making. As long as the labor market remains solid and does not deteriorate quickly, the RBA can afford to hold off on a rate cut. If, however, the employment report is softer than expected, it would put pressure on the RBA to lower rates at next month's meeting. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6231. Above, there is resistance at 0.6255 0.6189 and 0.6171 are providing support
by OANDA
US100 NASDAQ SHORTThe US dollar is broadly firmer, though the Japanese yen is proving a resilient ahead of the BOJ deputy governor's speech Nasdaq slide as key tech stocks get hit All three benchmarks are down for the last two weeks, with tech shares causing most of the damage With the 10-year yield potentially getting to 5%, it’s going to be very hard for the equity market to really gain any meaningful traction here until there’s — at minimum — stability in interest rates Interest rates rise? iN 2025 it will be possible:Inflation, signs of recession.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
XAUUSD - The CPI index will determine the gold path!Gold is located in a 4 -hour timeframe above EMA200 and EMA50 and is on its uptrend channel. If weaken in CPI data and market concerns about inflation, gold buying opportunities. The release of the headline stronger than the expectation of the CPI will result in the uptrend and decrease in gold. But in the secondary wave it will result in gold climbing. Gold prices have reached their highest levels in approximately four weeks, nearing the $2,700 range. Recent changes in stock markets and concerns over U.S. economic policies have driven increased demand for gold. Several key factors have contributed to the recent price surges. First, rising global tensions, particularly involving major powers such as the U.S., Russia, and China, have destabilized financial markets, prompting investors to turn to gold as a safe-haven asset to shield against potential crises. Second, persistent concerns about inflation in major economies have made gold an attractive option for preserving purchasing power. Additionally, central banks have significantly increased their gold reserves, boosting demand. Finally, expectations of interest rate cuts or potential easing by central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have further enhanced gold’s appeal. Gold prices have previously experienced sharp declines. Between 2011 and 2015, gold lost nearly 45% of its value, falling from its peak of $1,920 per ounce to $1,050 per ounce, driven by a strong dollar, rising interest rates, and an improving economy. Beyond this historical context, other scenarios could also lead to a 30% decline in gold prices. For instance, if the Federal Reserve adopts unexpectedly aggressive monetary policies and raises interest rates faster than anticipated, the strengthening dollar would exert downward pressure on gold prices. A sudden increase in gold supply could also push prices lower, whether due to the discovery of new reserves or the sale of gold holdings by central banks or large institutions. Moreover, robust improvements in global economies alongside geopolitical stability could dampen demand for gold. Finally, growing investor interest in alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies or other commodities, could diminish gold’s perceived value. Paul Williams, CEO of Solomon Global, has forecasted that the factors driving 39 record-breaking gold price highs last year remain intact and could support further price growth in 2025. In his report, Williams stated: “The year 2024 reinforced gold’s role as a timeless and safe asset. In a world filled with geopolitical conflicts and economic uncertainties, gold has provided stability and security for investors. The record highs achieved in 2024 reflect not only market conditions but also a broader sense of caution and risk mitigation among investors. This trend appears poised to continue into 2025.” Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal has released predictions from 17 economists on U.S. inflation data set to be announced on Wednesday, January 15, 2025. In 2024, the Federal Reserve made limited progress in curbing inflation, with most inflation indicators only slightly declining from the start of the year. Although policymakers had hoped inflation would approach the 2% target, persistent inflationary pressures have kept it near 3%. However, November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report offered a glimmer of hope. Prices in sectors such as housing and services, which have been major drivers of persistent inflation, have begun to ease. This may lead to an unexpected decline in Wednesday’s CPI data, although more significant decreases are likely in early 2025. Analysts predict a monthly CPI increase of 0.3%, which is lower than the 0.4% forecast from the Federal Reserve Cleveland’s Inflation Nowcast model. According to these projections, annual CPI is expected to rise from 2.7% to 2.9% in November. Given that markets currently price in only two 25-basis-point rate cuts for all of 2025, a strong CPI report may not elicit a major market reaction. However, if CPI data comes in weaker than expected, the U.S. dollar could face selling pressure.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver, waiting for the release of the CPI index!Silver is in a 4 -hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50, moving in its upside channel. If you continue the decline, we can see the channel floor failure and a limited support. Silver stabilization above the resistance range will provide us with silver climbing route to the supply zone, where we can sell at a proper risk. The U.S. employment report for December disrupted expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies, highlighting the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a key market driver. Job creation surged by 256,000, significantly surpassing the forecast of 160,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. This data triggered a sharp rise in Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.79%, the highest level since 2023. Higher yields increase the cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, which could face headwinds if inflation accelerates. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts until at least June, a notable shift from earlier forecasts anticipating rate reductions in spring. A hotter-than-expected CPI report could further delay this timeline, strengthening the dollar and potentially putting pressure on silver prices. Silver’s industrial role continues to support its prices, driven by robust global demand in industries like solar energy and electronics.The production of solar panels, a major consumer of silver, remains a key driver, while geopolitical and inflationary risks have boosted silver’s appeal as an inflation hedge. Gold’s stability in a high-yield environment has indirectly supported silver as well. Amid stock market volatility, investors have turned to both precious metals. The S&P 500 has declined by 1% year-to-date. Additionally, concerns over tariffs and the fiscal policies proposed by President-elect Donald Trump have increased demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, speculation around Trump’s potential policies, including tariffs and spending programs, has heightened market uncertainty. Markets are grappling with whether these measures will stoke inflation or negatively impact growth, creating mixed conditions for silver. Major global banks are revising their forecasts for Federal Reserve monetary policy. Bank of America has stated it no longer expects any rate cuts in 2025. The bank believes the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has ended and sees the next move as more likely to be a rate hike. Citi has also updated its projections, announcing that it no longer anticipates a Fed rate cut in January. The bank now forecasts a potential rate reduction in May. Deutsche Bank has similarly noted that the Fed is unlikely to lower rates in the near term. The bank believes the Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with future actions heavily dependent on incoming economic data. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs predicts the Fed will implement two 0.25% rate cuts in June and December, totaling 0.5% for the year. This marks a revision from its earlier forecast of a 0.75% reduction. Finally, Morgan Stanley has indicated that the likelihood of a near-term rate cut has diminished. However, the bank still considers a rate cut in March plausible due to an improving inflation outlook.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDJPY - Will the weakness of the yen stop?!The USDJPY pairing in the 4 -hour timeframe is between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its mid -term uptrend. If corrected by publishing economic data this week, we can see the downward trend and then the restricted demand zone, and in that area with the right risk. The valid defeat of the specified resistance range will pave the way for the pair up to 160. Tatsu Yamasaki, a former Japanese official, stated in an interview with Nikkei that collaboration between Trump and Tokyo could help normalize the dollar-yen exchange rate. He suggested that Trump should work with Tokyo to weaken the overly strong dollar. Such cooperation could strengthen economic relations between the two nations and bring greater stability to financial markets. Meanwhile, robust U.S. labor market data for December has led many analysts to conclude that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates further at this time. Some even predict that the report could pave the way for the Fed to raise interest rates in 2025. An economist at Bank of America wrote in a note, “Our baseline forecast is that the Federal Reserve will keep rates steady for an extended period. However, the risk of a rate hike is growing.” According to the economist, factors such as core inflation growth or rising inflation expectations could trigger a rate hike.Concerns also revolve around Trump’s policies, including tax cuts and tariffs, which may contribute to higher inflation. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), remarked that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts due to stable labor markets and inflation nearing target levels. She also predicted that global economic growth will remain steady as inflation gradually declines in 2025. Georgieva highlighted uncertainties surrounding trade policies under the new U.S. administration, emphasizing their potential impact on the global economy. Additionally, she expects global interest rates to remain relatively high for an extended period. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, stated that interest rates will be raised if economic improvements and price growth continue. He noted that the final decision on this matter will be made next week. Ueda’s remarks contributed to strengthening the yen in financial markets. Himino, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, indicated that if economic projections materialize, monetary easing policies will be adjusted and interest rates increased. He stressed the need for continuous monitoring of U.S. economic policies under the new administration. Domestically, one of the critical issues remains the outlook for wage growth in the fiscal year 2025. Himino acknowledged various risks, both domestic and international, while noting that the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong. Masato Kanda, a former currency official for Japan, continues to comment on the yen. Speaking in Tokyo, he emphasized that currency markets should move based on fundamental principles, and any sudden deviations from these fundamentals require correction. Separately, Nippon Steel announced that it is the sole partner capable of fully preserving U.S. Steel, keeping its blast furnaces operational, and maintaining jobs in the industry. The company stated that its commitments have been shared in multiple meetings with various stakeholders, including employees. Meanwhile, Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of Cleveland-Cliffs, has been accused of unfair biases, as he cannot match the scope and scale of Nippon Steel’s proposal. Nippon Steel emphasized its determination to take whatever measures are necessary to finalize the deal.
Short
by Ali_PSND
BOJ to discuss rate hike, yen dips lowerThe yen remains calm and is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.98, up 0.34% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Japan this week and the yen is having a relatively quiet week. That could change with the release of US inflation on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y in December from 2.7% in November, while core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Inflation reports have had significant impact on rate expectations but the December inflation rate might not be all that significant, as expectations of a rate cut have fallen in recent weeks. Since the December meeting, the Fed has tried to dampen rate-cut expectations and the market is not expecting a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025. The money markets have currently priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. With inflation largely under control and a solid labor market, there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates in the near term. The Bank of Japan tends not to telegraph its rate plans, leaving investors in the dark and on the hunt for clues about the central bank's rate plans. The uncertainty adds to the drama ahead of BoJ meetings and means that each meeting should be treated as a market-mover. BoJ's Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the BoJ would discuss a rate hike at the Jan. 24 meeting. Himino didn't say what decision he expected the BoJ to make but reiterated Governor's Ueda recent comments that wage growth was solid and that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies. USD/JPY tested resistance at 158.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 158.49 There is support at 157.78 and 157.42
by OANDA
AUD/USD steady as consumer sentiment slips lowerThe Australian dollar is showing little movement on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6174, down 0.06% at the time of writing. The Australian consumer remains pessimistic about the economic outlook. The Westpac consumer sentiment index fell 0.7% in January from -2% in December 2024. This brought the index down to 92.1 in January, down from 92.8 a month earlier. The Westpac report found that confidence over employment has been falling and interestingly, a majority of consumers expect interest rates to move higher, despite signals that the Reserve Bank of Australia's first rate move will be a cut rather than a hike. The RBA hasn't moved on rates in over a year and the current cash rate of 4.25% continues to squeeze businesses and consumers. Australia releases third-quarter inflation on Jan. 29 and the central bank will be watching. That inflation reading could result in a historic rate cut if inflation is lower than expected. We'll get a look at the US Producer Price Index later today, with mixed numbers expected. PPI is projected to jump from 3.0% to 3.4% y/y  while decreasing monthly from 0.4% to 0.3%. Core PPI and is expected to jump to 3.8% y/y from 3.4% and from 0.2% to 03% m/m. If the PPI report indicates an acceleration as is expected, the money markets will likely lower their expectations for a rate cut. Currently, the money markets have priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. Federal Reserve members are sounding hawkish and have signaled that the market shouldn't expect a rate cut anytime soon. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6193 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6209 0.6162 and 0.6146 are providing support
by OANDA
BOJ to discuss rate hike, yen dips lowerThe yen remains calm and is lower on Tuesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 157.98, up 0.34% on the day. There are no tier-1 events out of Japan this week and the yen is having a relatively quiet week. That could change with the release of US inflation on Wednesday. Headline CPI is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y in December from 2.7% in November, while core CPI is expected to remain at 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Inflation reports have had significant impact on rate expectations but the December inflation rate might not be all that significant, as expectations of a rate cut have fallen in recent weeks. Since the December meeting, the Fed has tried to dampen rate-cut expectations and the market is not expecting a rate cut in the first quarter of 2025. The money markets have currently priced in a quarter-point cut at the Jan. 29 meeting at below 3%  and at the March meeting at around 20%. With inflation largely under control and a solid labor market, there is little reason for the Fed to cut rates in the near term. The Bank of Japan tends not to telegraph its rate plans, leaving investors in the dark and on the hunt for clues about the central bank's rate plans. The uncertainty adds to the drama ahead of BoJ meetings and means that each meeting should be treated as a market-mover. BoJ's Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Tuesday that the BoJ would discuss a rate hike at the Jan. 24 meeting. Himino didn't say what decision he expected the BoJ to make but reiterated Governor's Ueda recent comments that wage growth was solid and that there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's trade policies. USD/JPY tested resistance at 158.13 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 158.49 There is support at 157.78 and 157.42
by yesfish
EURUSD: Pullback before the crash!The EUR/USD continues its downward trend, recently touching a new cycle low around 1.0176 as the US Dollar maintains its relentless rally, fueled by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The Greenback’s strength has been amplified by a fifth consecutive bullish session, with the DXY surpassing the critical 110.00 level. Investors have sharply revised their outlook on Fed policy, reducing the probability of significant rate cuts in the near term. This shift in sentiment follows a robust Nonfarm Payrolls report and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, emphasizing the priority of taming inflation before contemplating further easing. On the policy front, while the Fed recently trimmed its benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Powell’s cautious tone during the final press conference of 2024 left markets in little doubt that any future rate cuts will be gradual. Powell underscored the need to anchor inflation closer to the 2% target and pointed out that despite some softening, the labor market remains resilient. This narrative has bolstered USD demand and widened the divergence with the European Central Bank’s stance. In contrast, the ECB faces mounting pressure to sustain its easing cycle amid a deteriorating economic outlook across the eurozone, particularly in Germany, where industrial performance has been lackluster. Despite a marginal rise in inflation figures for December, ECB policymakers seem committed to prioritizing growth over inflation control in the short term. This divergence in central bank policies has created a headwind for the euro, further weakening EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of a test of parity. Adding to the complexity, potential trade policy shifts under the incoming US administration could inject additional volatility. Proposals for renewed tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures in the US, compelling the Fed to adopt a more aggressive tightening stance. Such a scenario would exacerbate the euro’s struggles, as a stronger USD and continued ECB easing would widen the interest rate differential between the two economies. Looking ahead, the focus will remain on key data releases, including US CPI and Retail Sales, alongside eurozone Industrial Production and German inflation data. These reports will offer crucial insights into the respective economic trajectories and may set the tone for future price action. However, in the current context, the EUR/USD appears poised to remain under pressure as the fundamental backdrop heavily favors the Greenback. Until there is a significant shift in economic or policy expectations, the pair may continue its march towards parity.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
AUDUSD: RSI moves into oversold levelsThe AUDUSD has experienced a consistent decline of over 3% in the past month. This is primarily due to the growing strength of the U.S. dollar as the next Fed decision approaches (January 29), where interest rates are expected to remain stable at 4.5%. Bearish Channel: Since October 4, 2024, a solid bearish channel has been maintained, with the price reaching a low of 0.61308. However, to further confirm bearish momentum, it is almost essential to break through the next key support level at 0.60151. RSI: Currently, the RSI line is oscillating below the 30 level , indicating significant oversold conditions, where bearish momentum has taken over the market with greater intensity. Additionally, higher lows on the RSI and lower lows on the price have created a bullish divergence. Both events in the indicator may signal the emergence of potential short-term bullish corrections as short positions ease near support zones. Key Levels: 0.62369: A nearby resistance level that has acted as a point of neutrality in recent oscillations and coincides with the upper boundary of the current bearish channel. Breaks above this level could bring back buying momentum and challenge the current bearish formation on the chart. This level is crucial to monitor for potential short-term bullish corrections. 0.60151: A key support level and the closest barrier for bearish positions. Breaks below this level could mark a new price low and further consolidate the strength of the current bearish channel. By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
by FOREXcom
AUD/USD stabilizes after post-NFP slideThe Australian dollar has started the week quietly. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6151, up 0.07% at the time of writing.  Earlier, the Australian dollar fell as low as 0.6130, its lowest level since April 2020. It was another rough week for the Australian dollar, which declined 1.7% last week. The Aussie can't find its footing and has plunged 10.4% in the past three months. Strong US nonfarm payrolls sends Aussie tumbling The week ended with a surprisingly strong US jobs report. In December, the economy added 256 thousand jobs, the most since March 2024. This followed a downwardly revised 212 thousand in November and easily beat the market estimate of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in November. Wage growth also ticked lower, from 4% y/y to 3.9% and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly. The upshot of the jobs report is that the US labor market remains solid and is cooling slowly. For the Federal Reserve, this means there isn't much pressure to lower interest rates in the next few months. That will suit Fed policy makers just fine as it awaits Donald Trump, who has pledged tariffs against US trading partners and mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Either of those policies could increase inflation and the Fed will try to get a read of the Trump administration before cutting rates again. The latest Fed forecast calls for only two rate cuts in 2025 but that could change, depending on inflation and the strength of the labor market. The strong employment numbers boosted the US dollar against most of the majors on Friday and the Australian dollar took it on the chin, falling 0.8%, its worst one-day showing in three weeks. With interest rates likely on hold in the near-term and and high tensions in the Middle East, the safe-haven US dollar should remain attractive to investors in the coming months. AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6163 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6188 0.6121 and 0.6096 are providing support
by yesfish
XAUUSD - The NFP indicator will determine the direction of gold!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. In case of weakness in the data of the employment market and increase in the unemployment rate, you can look for opportunities to buy gold. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate release and a strong NFP headline will lead to a breakout of the bullish and bearish channel in gold. While most major economies are expected to pursue expansionary monetary policies this year, the pace of these measures will likely slow. According to Bloomberg’s forecast, the overall interest rate index in advanced economies is projected to decrease by only 72 basis points in 2025, which is lower than the rate of decline in 2024. Donald Trump, with his electoral promises and economic policies, has become a source of concern for central banks worldwide.If Trump enforces his threats to impose trade tariffs, these policies could harm economic growth and, in the case of retaliatory measures, drive up consumer prices. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) highlighted the “complex” impacts of Trump’s proposed tariffs on metal prices in a recent note. The proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada—two of the main suppliers of metals to the U.S.—are expected to have both direct and indirect effects on the market. The bank identified two main concerns. First, the potential negative impact on global growth and the fundamentals of the metals market, particularly if the tariffs escalate into a full-blown trade war. However, BofA predicts that a more “measured approach to trade barriers is likely to prevail,” which would mitigate the overall damage. Second, regional metal prices will need to adjust to the potential tariffs. Bank of America warned that tariffs could strengthen the dollar, increase inflation, and lead to higher interest rates—all of which could pose challenges for the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, they concluded that metal prices are likely to stabilize after the initial volatility subsides, especially if the tariffs are targeted and investments in energy transition continue. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, downplayed expectations of continued monetary easing in 2025 during his December 18, 2024, press conference. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester’s dissenting vote against a rate cut was surprising, but the major shock to markets came from the Fed members’ projections (dot plot). The Fed members forecast only two rate cuts for 2025, signaling that the monetary easing cycle, which began in September 2024, will slow significantly in the coming year. Powell also admitted that inflation forecasts for the end of the year had been overly optimistic, suggesting that inflation is not yet fully under control. The Fed is increasingly concerned about Trump’s policies, as tools like tariffs could raise import prices and, subsequently, inflation. Forecasts for Friday’s NFP data: • Average estimate: 165K • Lowest estimate: 120K • Highest estimate: 190K The importance of the labor market for monetary policy has slightly diminished following Powell’s December 18 press conference. This indicates that the Fed has some confidence in easing price pressures stemming from the labor market. However, recent data suggests that the labor market has not fully cooled. The upcoming NFP report is expected to show a 160,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate and hourly wage growth are likely to remain steady at 4.2% and 4%, respectively. If these expectations are unmet, especially with job growth below 50,000, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in Q1 2025 will increase. Currently, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut by June 2025, but this move could occur sooner if labor market data remains weak.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDZAR 1Q2025 outlookThe rand has been on the ropes since mid-December after it failed to pull the pair below the 50-day MA support. Since then the broad-based dollar strength has seen the rand give away all its post-election gains. Fundamentally there I only see two factors which are supportive for the rand as we head into 2025. The first is a strong SA trade surplus of R34.7 billion for November 2024 and the second is the SARB’s continued hawkish stance. The dollar has punished both developed and developing market currencies whose central banks opted to front run the Fed with their respective rate cuts last year and the SARB’s hawkish stance has limited the rand’s losses in 2024. Apart from these two factors, the overall risk-off sentiment stemming from the volatility in the US and other bond markets coupled with the fleeting post-election SA election optimism does not bode well for the rand. Technically, we have completed a five wave impulse for the pair which pushed the pair to a high of just shy of the psychological handle of 19.00. I believe we should see an ABC corrective pattern play out and a re-test of the levels around 18.40 and 18.50. A failed break below this support range will be the first sign for the predicted move higher towards the 2024 high of 19.35. A break below the 50-day MA will however invalidate the idea and allow the rand to re-test levels below the 18.00 handle. The 50- and 200-day MAs are currently sitting at 18.15 and we are seeing the infamous “golden cross” taking shape which is rand negative. Over the very short-term, the bearish divergence on the RSI could allow the rand to strengthen with today’s US non-farm payroll volatility. The USDZAR and the DXY both look overstretched and this week’s attempted move higher for the USDZAR does have the characteristics of a bull trap.
Long
by Goose96