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USD/JPY Intervention Risks: Caution PrevailsThe USD/JPY has recently surged to a multi-decade high of 154.88, reflecting a steady climb. However, uncertainty looms over the pair, with traders refraining from placing new bets due to the threat of Japanese currency market interventions. Widespread weakness in the US dollar is also curbing bullish potential. Despite reaching a new high for April and the past 34 years, the possibility of interventions by Japanese authorities has tempered bullish enthusiasm. Japanese Finance Minister has warned of direct intervention to support the yen, if necessary. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY remains above the historical intervention zone, ranging from 150.00 to 152.00. Investor focus is on US durable goods orders data, with the USD/JPY poised to react based on the outcomes. The upcoming Bank of Japan meeting on Friday could further impact the pair, with the central bank's accommodating stance potentially changing if inflation nears 2%. However, a rate hike by the BoJ during the meeting is unlikely. Additionally, US economic data performance could influence USD/JPY volatility, with GDP and personal consumption index among the anticipated releases. Technical analysis suggests that the USD/JPY needs to consolidate before its next upswing, with potential support between 154.55 and 154.45. In conclusion, while the USD/JPY maintains strength, traders exercise caution amidst intervention risks and US dollar weakness.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
#FED causing Commercial Real Estate/ Banking CollapseCommercial real estate "..talk of black swans of an economic nature forcing the Fed to print trillions again. Commercial real estate may be the next domino to fall. Back in 2008, default rates rose to 9%, up from 1%, as interest rates rose. Today, the damage to commercial real estate loans which total about $2.7 trillion could be far greater. Over 40% of the US work force now works remotely since May 2020. The decline in demand for commercial properties has worsened by recent tech layoffs. The value of office sector REITs have fallen by about 55% which translates into a 33% reduction in the value of office buildings. The default rate of between 10-20% in commercial real estate which was the lower end seen during the worst of 2008 would result in about $80-160 billion in additional bank losses. This would be ruinous for hundreds of smaller and midsize regional banks that have already been weakened by higher interest rates. The 2008 financial crisis spread from the housing sector to the rest of the economy as large banks with exposure to housing took tremendous losses. Today, the Fed has created a moral hazard in guaranteeing depositors. Bank executives may take bigger risks if they believe the Fed will step in to protect depositors."
NYSE:AREShort
by BallaJi
XAUUSD| It's time for a correction toward 2250$The analysis on gold presents a complex picture influenced by various factors. Initially, the precious metal recorded a significant loss, exceeding 2% during the day and dropping below $2,340. This decrease was primarily attributed to the easing geopolitical tensions, which prompted a deep correction in the XAU/USD market. Additionally, the resilience of US Treasury bond yields added bearish pressure to the pair. From a fundamental perspective, spot gold is under intense selling pressure at the beginning of the week, with XAU/USD approaching a daily low of $2,329.51, the lowest in a week. The recent decline was partly caused by an increased appetite for high-yielding assets, as evidenced by investors fleeing to Asian stocks amid the easing tensions in the Middle East. The US dollar, although mixed against its major rivals, shows particular weakness compared to commodity-linked currencies. However, activity remains well-contained pending first-tier data scheduled for the week, especially regarding the release of the first estimate of Q1 GDP and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index in the United States. In summary, gold exhibits bearish signals in the short term, with a combination of technical and fundamental factors contributing to its current weakness. However, the situation could evolve in response to any significant geopolitical developments or economic data.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Mighty Dollar Roars Back: A Wake-Up Call for Global MarkeThe financial markets of 2024 have witnessed a surprising resurgence: the unwavering strength of the US dollar. After predictions of a decline at the year's outset, the greenback has defied expectations, surging over 4% according to the Bloomberg dollar index. This unexpected power play by the dollar serves as a stark wake-up call for investors around the globe, forcing a reassessment of global economic dynamics. Several factors are fueling the dollar's dominance: • Resilient US Economy: Contrary to forecasts of a slowdown, the US economy has displayed remarkable strength. Robust economic data, coupled with persistent inflation, has prompted the Federal Reserve to take a more hawkish stance. Rising interest rates in the US make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to investors, increasing demand for the currency. • US Exceptionalism Narrative: The perception of the US as a safe haven in a world riddled with geopolitical uncertainties is bolstering the dollar's appeal. Geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the ongoing war in Ukraine, are driving investors towards reliable and stable economies. The relative stability of the US, compared to global turmoil, strengthens the dollar's position as a go-to currency during times of crisis. • Sticky Inflation: The Federal Reserve's fight against inflation is another key driver of dollar strength. The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates, while potentially slowing economic growth, is seen as a necessary step to curb inflation. This hawkish stance stands in stark contrast to the dovish policies of central banks in other major economies, like the Bank of Japan (BOJ), which continues to maintain ultra-low interest rates. This divergence in monetary policy further strengthens the dollar's relative appeal. The Ripple Effects The resurgent dollar has significant ramifications for global markets: • Currency Devaluation: A stronger dollar puts downward pressure on other currencies. This can make imports into the US cheaper but exports from the US more expensive, potentially impacting global trade dynamics. Emerging market economies, particularly those heavily reliant on foreign capital, could face currency depreciation and capital outflows. • Equity Market Volatility: The rising dollar can create headwinds for equity markets outside the US. As the dollar strengthens, foreign investments become less attractive, potentially leading to capital repatriation and reduced liquidity in other markets. This could lead to increased volatility in global stock markets. • Commodities Market Impact: A strong dollar generally translates to lower commodity prices. This is because most commodities are priced in US dollars, so a stronger dollar makes them relatively more expensive for holders of other currencies. This could impact countries heavily reliant on commodity exports. The Road Ahead The future trajectory of the dollar remains uncertain. The path of US interest rates, the evolution of global economic conditions, and the persistence of geopolitical tensions will all be crucial factors shaping the dollar's strength. The current scenario presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. A strong dollar can create opportunities in US assets but necessitates careful portfolio diversification to mitigate currency risks. The evolving global landscape demands close monitoring and a nimble investment strategy to navigate the volatility. The resurgent dollar serves as a potent reminder of the US economy's enduring strength and its role as a global anchor currency. As the world grapples with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the dollar's reign is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, demanding a recalibration of global investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by bryandowningqln
EURUSD: Waiting the ECB for a new low of the yearEUR/USD has shown a significant upward trend, surpassing the key level of 1.0650. This upward movement was primarily driven by a shift in risk sentiment, with investors moving away from safe-haven assets, thereby weakening the US Dollar. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart indicated a recovery towards the 50 level, signaling a reduction in bearish momentum. Earlier, during Friday's Asian session, EUR/USD experienced a decline towards 1.0600, attributed to reports of Israeli missiles striking Iran. This triggered a flight to safety, benefiting the US Dollar and causing a temporary retreat in EUR/USD. However, official confirmation regarding Israeli retaliation against Iran was awaited, as Israel had not yet confirmed its involvement. Despite initial concerns, reports suggesting the end of direct attacks between Israel and Iran provided relief to the markets, leading to a reversal in risk sentiment. Consequently, S&P 500 futures retraced a significant portion of their previous losses, indicating an improvement in market mood. However, geopolitical uncertainty in the region remains a concern, potentially prompting investors to seek refuge before the weekend. Even in the absence of further escalation, investors may exercise caution, refraining from making risky bets amid persistent geopolitical tensions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
The Aussie is Vulnerable Despite its BounceAUD/USD rises after its 2024 lows as the greenback’s strength deflates, eying the pivotal EMA200 and daily closes above it would shift bias to the upside. However, such outcome has high degree of difficulty technically. The EMA200 can contain the rebound and sustain the bearish bias, which would keep the Aussie exposed to the 2023 lows (0.6269). The hawkish repricing around the Fed is likely to continue to help for the USDollar, as stubborn inflation, strong economy and robust labor market favor a conservative approach around rate cuts by the Fed. Its Australian counterpart seems to be further from such moves at this stage, but today’s poor labor data strengthen the case for an RBA pivot. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Short
by FXCM
Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data? Is BOJ's Intervention Hiding Behind Inflation Data? Japanese inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday, but its impact on the market might be subdued. Investors could prefer to pay attention to next week's quarterly growth and price forecasts from the Bank of Japan, which could be the real market movers. According to sources cited by Reuters, the Bank of Japan is transitioning towards a more flexible approach in its policy decisions, placing less emphasis on inflation targeting. The upcoming April 25-26 policy meeting will see the release of the Bank's quarterly growth and price projections. This shift in strategy suggests that the Bank of Japan may signal a willingness to raise interest rates irrespective of inflation forecasts, which are anticipated to remain around 2.8% or possibly dip slightly to 2.7%. On the technical side, the USDJPY pair could maintain an upward bias, with buyers potentially pushing it towards the 155.00 mark. Recent fluctuations in the USDJPY pair have prompted speculation about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. After hitting a new high dating back to 1990 at 154.705, the pair experienced a swift and unusual downturn. Market watchers are closely monitoring the 155.00 level, considered another more likely potential intervention threshold by the Bank of Japan. Following a dip to 153.890, the pair rebounded towards 154.775, supported by neutral to hawkish remarks from US Federal Reserve officials. Fed Chair Powell, speaking at a panel discussion in Washington, highlighted the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation, suggesting the Bank was comfortable with allowing “restrictive policy further time to work”.
by BlackBull_Markets
4
Will it fall further or is it time to buy? Tension in East.Since the U.S. inflation data last Wednesday, the EUR/USD has depreciated for four consecutive days, falling by 2.42%. Tensions in the Middle East and a strong U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) have contributed to this decline, which may be finding a potential buying zone. The pair is currently trading around 1.063 at the time of writing this article. The direction of the price this week remains uncertain. The EUR/USD is currently trading in a support zone (at the 61.8% Fibonacci level), but further declines cannot be ruled out given the ongoing conflict in the Middle East or continued strength in the DXY. The DXY directly influences the pair's exchange rate. On the other hand, the price is also near the support level of a triangular pattern, which suggests that after a few days of consolidation, buyers might gain confidence and push the pair toward the 1.09 resistance level indicated by the pattern. **THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. EACH TRADER IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THEIR OWN TRADING DECISIONS AND RISK MANAGEMENT.**
Long
by CRYPTONIA5
USD/JPY| Detailed AnalysisDetailed Analysis on USD/JPY Recent Market Dynamics The Japanese Yen has recently attracted some buyers and recovered a portion of the losses incurred after Wednesday's US CPI release. Concerns about potential intervention by Japanese authorities, coupled with a weaker risk tone, have supported the JPY and exerted pressure on USD/JPY. Divergent Monetary Policy Expectations Divergent expectations regarding the policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to limit any significant corrective moves for the currency pair. While the Fed is moving towards a tightening policy, the BoJ maintains a more accommodative stance. Key Levels of Resistance and Support USD/JPY has recently surpassed the resistance level at 153.00, paving the way towards the next significant resistance level. However, risks of intervention by Japanese authorities could lead the pair towards the next key support levels. Performance During the North American Session Despite warnings about potential Japanese intervention, USD/JPY has seen an increase during the North American session, staying above the 153.00 threshold. Strength of the US Dollar The US Dollar is gaining ground across the board, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching its highest level since November 2023. This is partly due to Wednesday's inflation report, which favored a positive reaction for the dollar. Reaction to US Economic Data Recent US economic data, particularly on inflation, has bolstered the strength of the US Dollar despite the weaker-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) compared to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Future Outlook Considering that US economic data indicates the Federal Reserve's work is not yet complete, it is expected that the US Dollar will continue to strengthen in the near term. Additionally, US Treasury yields have increased, further enhancing the outlook for the American currency. Japanese Authorities' Reactions On the Japanese front, Finance Minister Suzuki has stated that Japanese authorities will not rule out any measures to address excessive yen volatility, highlighting a high sense of urgency in monitoring the currency situation.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
6
USOIL: Unraveling Current Market DynamicsThe analysis of USOIL (West Texas Intermediate) takes into account multiple factors influencing the current oil market. Geopolitical tensions: Growing tensions in Gaza and concerns about potential attacks from Iran in the Middle East are adding a risk premium to oil prices. These events could lead to disruptions in oil supply, increasing price volatility. Supply concerns: The OPEC's warning about a possible market shortage during the summer indicates concern about the balance between supply and demand. If supply fails to meet expected demand, prices could further increase. Economic factors: Pressure on the US dollar, along with disappointing unemployment and US Producer Price Index (PPI) data, has contributed to weakening the dollar. However, a weaker dollar could make oil more attractive to international buyers, increasing demand and supporting prices. Technical outlook: Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are rising, with WTI approaching $90. If the resistance level at $87.12 is surpassed, prices are expected to reach $90 and even $94 in case of further geopolitical tensions. However, support levels at $83.34 and $80.63 could offer a rebound opportunity if prices were to decline.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD| Waiting the CPI to change the course!Recent trend in the price of gold: The price of gold has seen strong gains up to a historical peak reached on Monday. This suggests a bullish momentum in the short term. Factors influencing the price of gold: Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations: Expectations that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts are limiting further gains in gold. This could be due to the overbought context and the high uncertainty regarding monetary policy outlook. US Treasury bond yields: Elevated US Treasury yields are supporting the US dollar and contributing to limiting the upside potential for XAU/USD. This suggests an inverse correlation between the dollar and gold, wherein a stronger dollar tends to depress the price of gold. Key technical levels: Supports and resistances: A correction in the price of gold is expected to lead it towards the previous historical peak of $2,332 or even towards the April 4 peak at $2,300, followed by the April 5 low at $2,269. On the other hand, if buyers maintain control, the historical peak at $2,350 will be the first resistance to overcome. Market fundamentals: US inflation data: The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected on Wednesday can have a significant impact on the price of gold. These data can confirm or refute expectations of a Fed interest rate cut. Fed comments and policies: Comments from Fed officials, such as those from Neel Kashkari, can provide insights into monetary policy outlook and influence market sentiment on gold. Geopolitical and economic factors: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed central bank interest in gold can also influence the price of gold, providing additional support to the precious metal.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBPUSD| Bullish reaction after the NFPThe pound started the week with a slight bullish tone against the US dollar. This increase was favored by a slightly weaker dollar, accompanied by a moderate risk appetite in the market. This scenario allowed the pair to extend its recovery from the lows recorded after the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, bringing it back towards the 1.2600 level. Positive sentiment in the market has put pressure on the US dollar; however, it is likely that downward attempts will remain limited. Investors are preparing to maintain a cautious stance in anticipation of the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday. In the context of the analysis, it should be noted that US Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly showed strength last Friday, confirming the solid momentum of the US economy and further questioning the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. In this context, another positive surprise in economic data on Wednesday could give a fresh boost to the US dollar. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair is trading lower compared to the highs reached in early March. Key resistance is identified at 1.2682, a breakout of which could alleviate the downward pressure and push the exchange rate towards 1.2752, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of the March decline. Expected support levels are at 1.2572 and 1.2532.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Australian dollar slides on hot US inflation reportThe Australian dollar has declined sharply on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6515, down 1.7%. The US consumer price index has accelerated for a second straight month. The March CPI rose 3.5%, up from 3.2% in February and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the highest inflation rate since September. On a monthly basis, CPI remained unchanged in March at 0.4%, higher than the market estimate of 0.4%. The increase in inflation was mainly due to rising energy and shelter costs. Core CPI, which is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, was unchanged at 3.8% in March and just above the market estimate of 3.7%. Monthly, core CPI rose 0.4%, matching the previous two months and above the market estimate of 0.3%. US inflation has accelerated for a second straight month, a reminder that although inflation appears under control, the final sprint to the 2% target will be a challenge for the Federal Reserve. The strong inflation report has pushed back expectations on the timing of a first rate cut, propelling the US dollar higher against the major currencies and sending the Australian dollar reeling. The probability of a Fed rate cut in June has dropped from above 50% before the inflation report to 23% afterwards. Investors don’t consider a rate cut to be likely until September. In Australia, consumer inflation expectations will be released Thursday. The forecast for April stands at 4.1%, down from 4.3% in March, which was the lowest level since October 2021. As well, China releases CPI, which is expected to decline by 0.5% in March, down from 1% in February. A reading below zero would point to deflation and weakness in China’s economy. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6560 and is putting pressure on support at 0.6500 0.6638 and 0.6698 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
NZ dollar climbs ahead of RBNZ rate decisionThe New Zealand dollar has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6065, up 0.54% and its highest level since March 21. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets early on Wednesday and it’s practically a given that it will hold the cash rate at 5.5%. This would mark the sixth straight time that the RBNZ maintains rates and prolongs its “higher for longer stance”. Investors will be interested in whether the RBNZ pushes back against market expectations of rate cuts – investors have priced in two cuts with a 70% probability of a third this year. The decision will not include updated economic forecasts or a news conference with Governor Orr, which could limit New Zealand dollar volatility around the meeting. The markets are being aggressive in their pricing of rate cuts, mainly due to a weak economy, as GDP has contracted in four of the past five quarters. However, high inflation is a key reason why the RBNZ is hesitant to signal rate cuts are coming. In the fourth quarter, the inflation rate was 4.7%, well above the upper limit of the 1-3% target band. New Zealand releases first-quarter CPI next week, and the release will be a key factor in the central bank’s rate policy. The RBNZ would prefer to have the Federal Reserve cut rates first, as this would boost the New Zealand dollar and weigh on inflation. The Fed has signaled rate cuts are coming but stronger than expected data, such as last week’s nonfarm payrolls, may lead the Fed to delay lowering rates. NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6060. Above, there is resistance at 0.6107 0.6000 and 0.5953 are providing support
by OANDA
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data. Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June. Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021. In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time. In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
2
Last Leg (Update) - USDCHF Year So FarHey everyone!! Here I talk about USDCHF and give a little update on my Trade Idea "Last Leg To The Finish Line" Since it went over so well and continuing to follow suit, I wanted to do a Video Update on the idea to give a little insight on what I was seeing as the pair unfolded for the year and what I'm looking for in the near future!! Please let me know what you think and thank you so much for all the Support!! .. It all started with a little Double Bottom on the Hourly Chart
Long
by Novi_Fibonacci
1
FOMC FORWARD GUIDANCE SINCE 2018 w/FED SPEAKERS w/SPX The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations and economic behavior. By examining the interplay between FOMC forward guidance and these key economic indicators, investors, policymakers, and analysts can gain insights into the likely direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on financial markets and the broader economy. I have also included comments from various FOMC speakers to better form a picture of the past.
SP:SPX
by koyking
THE KOG REPORT - NFP (Are we going higher?)The KOG REPORT – NFP This is our view for NFP, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ve done well on Gold so this NFP we’re really not looking for get involved in the play unless we see price approach extreme levels! We’ve managed a long, we’ve managed a short but with this move, it’s likely we’re going to see some stop loss hunt activations and swings in both directions, so please play defence. We have the immediate resistance levels above 2305-8 which if targeted and held would be the first reaction point we can see on the chart, that’s if the support level 2270-65 manages to hold up the price on the release. Ideally, we want to see that level above break higher and tap into that extreme level above 2230-37 which is where, if we see a decent set up and clean reversal, we feel the opportunity to short the market will come from. On the flip, looking below, again the support level 2270-65 could be the swoop, and if broken, we will be looking to hold any runners from above down into the 2230-35 region and below that 2220-25 as per the KOG Report on Sunday where, if price is held, supported and we see a clean set up, we feel an opportunity to long the market again is on the cards. It’s a simple one this time, not going to risk getting into the market for cheap pips with the way they have been behaving lately. Look for the extreme levels or stay away and come back on Monday. Remember, the trade comes after the event! Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
10
GBPUSD: Road Map from 1.2640 to 1.244The British Pound experienced a significant decline during the mid-North American session, primarily due to the outlook of US economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Optimism regarding the strength of the US economy bolstered the US Dollar, while US Treasury yields increased significantly, exerting additional pressure on the Cable (GBP/USD). Looking ahead, if sellers manage to push the exchange rate below 1.2550, the next target could be the threshold of 1.2500. However, if the pair surpasses the 200-DMA, we might witness a potential recovery, with 1.2600 as the next resistance zone, followed by the 100-DMA at 1.2649. Meanwhile, in the United States, economic data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed growth in economic activity in March, suggesting resilience in the US economy. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) exceeded expectations, also highlighting an increase in the Prices Paid Index, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD: The Level 1.07 will be the next target!The analysis on EUR/USD shows a strong bearish pressure that led the cross to touch its lowest level since mid-February, dropping below the level of 1.0750. The daily chart indicates that EUR/USD is confined within a 20 pip range below the level of 1.0803, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous rally from 1.0694 to 1.0981. In the 4-hour chart, the 20-period SMA is moving downwards above the current level while below the longer moving averages, further confirming the bearish trend. The current session is characterized by a lack of significant events, with EUR/USD oscillating around the level of 1.0780 due to the Easter holidays, which have made Asian and European markets quiet. In Asia, the Japanese Nikkei 225 recorded a decline due to a negative report on business sentiment, while Chinese stocks saw an increase following better-than-expected economic data. Overall, I expect a rebound at the level of 1.088, where trendline intersections may occur, leading to a decline towards the 1.07 zone. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
5
Is The EV Hype Over? How The Fed Is Destroying TeslaThe first quarter of 2024 is now over, closing in a record +10% YTD rally and an exceptional +43% YOY increase in the QQQ. Despite the markets pushing higher, Tesla is experiencing significant challenges, with a -30% decrease YTD and a -9% decline YOY. This performance has positioned Tesla as the worst performing megacap so far. Given these circumstances, it's essential to delve into both macroeconomic factors and technical analysis to understand what has happened and what is likely to happen moving forward. The Macroeconomic Impact on Tesla Two years ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a historic rate-hiking cycle, increasing interest rates from 0% to 5.5% within just over a year and maintaining this rate since July 2023. This shift in monetary policy has notably affected car financing rates, now at 8.2% for a five-year loan, which significantly discourages consumers from buying new vehicles, especially EVs. The chart clearly illustrates an inverse correlation between Tesla stock and interest rates. Moreover, Tesla has operated exclusively during periods of historically low interest rates. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes nine months ago, the interest rate on car loans continues to rise. Further examination of inflation trends indicates that most common inflation measures have either plateaued or slowed their pace of deceleration, at a level inconsistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target. The M2 money supply and inflation expectations are critical indicators for predicting the direction of inflation. The peak in the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) followed the peak in M2 YOY by 16 months, recently bottoming just three months before CPI YOY stopped making progress to the downside. This lagged correlation suggests that headline CPI is unlikely to continue its strong downward trend moving forward. Moreover, inflation expectations, which remain well anchored, have also appeared to stop making progress to the downside, all remaining above 2%. This, combined with unchanged interest rates for nine months, suggests that the neutral rate of interest must be significantly higher than the pre-COVID trend. Historically, recessions have played a key role in helping the Fed bring down inflation to their 2% target. However, current economic indicators, including low unemployment levels and easy financial conditions, suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near future, despite the fed funds rate staying unchanged at a two-decade high. The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) captures the stimulative effects on the economy from the U.S. government's expansive fiscal policy. By borrowing and spending trillions directly from the Reverse Repo (RRP), the U.S. government has ingeniously counterbalanced the constrictive effects of tighter monetary policy without exerting upward pressure on long-term yields. The prolonged inversion of the yield curve, significantly extended by the U.S. government's financial strategies, could mark this cycle as having the longest inversion in history. Typically, a steepening yield curve is a precursor to higher unemployment and economic recession. However, the steepening of the yield curve remains unlikely in the short term, with excess reserves still available in the RRP and the Treasury General Account (TGA). With the U.S. employment sector still robust, showing historically low unemployment levels and low initial and continued claims, the likelihood of a significant uptrend in the unemployment rate seems low, as job openings are absorbing most of the excess labor supply and still remain well above the historical trend. This suggests that the fed funds rate may remain at around 5% this year, maintaining car loan rates at a higher level for an extended period and consequently making EVs increasingly less affordable for the average consumer. This scenario is likely to lead to a continuation of price cuts and greater margin contractions. Tesla's Technical Analysis Outlook From a technical analysis perspective, Tesla stock faced rejection at the $205 horizontal resistance line and might be rejected from the $180 level, marked by the 0.236 Fibonacci level. The next significant support level is at $155, with a possibility of revisiting the January 2023 low of $110, given Tesla's stock has been in a downward trend ever since November 2021. From a trend-based perspective, we can clearly see that TSLA stock is in a strong downtrend both in the 4H and daily timeframe with the EMAs and 20- week SMA trending lower. Despite this unfavourable outlook, caution is advised when considering short positions in Tesla due to its market dominance and relatively stable financial position, making it a riskier target than other less financially secure EV manufacturers. Concluding Thoughts While the broader market demonstrates resilience, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is significantly shaping the EVs industry future. With the economy likely transitioning away from historically low interest rates into a higher interest rate environment, caution is advised. Investors may benefit from considering less interest-rate-sensitive options until a clearer picture of the inflationary landscape and its impact on the economy emerges. Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by ingeforberg
2
EUR/USD | Heading Towards 1.10 Without Fed Rate CutsThe beginning of the week saw the US dollar strengthen, pushing the EUR/USD below the key support level of 1.0900. A break of the March peak at 1.0981 is expected to lead the pair to challenge resistance at 1.0998 and the psychological barrier at 1.1000. However, a potential drop below the 200-day moving average at 1.0838 could push the pair to the 2024 low of 1.0694. In the macroeconomic context, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are considering starting their easing cycles, leading to a strengthening of the dollar in the medium term. Consequently, the EUR/USD may correct downwards towards 1.0700 and possibly towards 1.0500 in the long term. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a price decline towards the 1.0800 zone before bouncing off the trendline and resuming upward movement, with a target at 1.1000. Further updates will follow. Regards and happy trading to all from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8