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GBPNZD: Will it have the force to go long? YESThe GBPNZD situation presents a bearish structure, highlighted by three recent touches on the trendline. However, it currently sits within a demand zone on H4, where yesterday I observed a bounce at the 62% Fibonacci level, supported by an H4 candle. This bounce, in my opinion, is worthy of consideration. Shortly after, the market experienced an uptick, also supported by the demand zone, with a structural change to the upside on M15. If we had entered the position yesterday, the trade would still be open and showing a modest profit. Currently, the goal is to await a retest of the demand zone before transitioning from an H4 to an M15 chart, where I will assess whether there will be a structural change to the upside for a long entry. Additionally, I will move my entry directly to the market if the last bearish candle before the impulse shows a pin bar or a doji. Otherwise, if it's a bearish structure candle, I will place a buy limit at the high of that candle. In the event this scenario occurs, my target will be the 2.0952 level, where a previous high with liquidity yet to be filled is located. I will keep you updated on the situation's developments. Best regards and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NASDAQ: Is it time to go short?Analyzing the NASDAQ, we see several significant factors. The quote is approaching weekly highs, and the performance over the last five days is positive, with a 0.35% increase, indicating strength in the market. However, the volatility over the last five sessions is higher than the three-month average, signaling a period of uncertainty and fluctuations. Nevertheless, both in the previous semester and in the last twenty sessions, a bullish price trend is observed, suggesting a positive long-term trend. Looking at support and resistance levels, the main support area is at 17480.0, while the resistance area is at 18040.0. A potential trend change could occur with a drop below the support area at 17040.0, indicating a possible reversal of the bullish trend. The net speculative positions of traders on NASDAQ 100 futures have decreased compared to the previous week, reflecting some uncertainty among operators about future market prospects. Monitoring the performance of the bond market is crucial, as an increase could shift demand towards bonds at the expense of stocks. Currently, the annual yield of the US ten-year treasury is increasing, which could influence the technical analysis of the NASDAQ. Furthermore, a more detailed analysis at the H4 timeframe level reveals that the market is oscillating around a supply area, suggesting the possibility of a structural change. An approach could be to wait for a change at M15 and then consider entry on the retest of an M15 supply area, with a target at 17560. If the price closes completely outside the M15 supply area, it could change the perspective, requiring further confirmation before deciding on operations. In conclusion, although the NASDAQ shows signs of strength in the short term, it is essential to evaluate volatility and support/resistance levels. Trader positions and the performance of the bond market provide further insights into market sentiment and future prospects. Greetings and happy trading to all.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Smart Money Orderflow M15 ApproachIn this context, we define an intelligent order flow, which is a convergence of flows, in this case, downwards, leading the price to create congestions, i.e., internal breaks, and then consolidation phases, i.e., external breaks, which bring the price into the demand zone, where we should consider opening a long position subsequently. The pattern is clear: demand zone on H4 after a defined structural change with the main consolidation phase, and then we expect a retest in the demand zone, where it is highly likely that the price may reverse its direction, especially when analyzing the market from an M15 perspective. I remain available for further clarifications, greetings, and happy studying to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Australian dollar rebounds, employment data loomsThe Australian dollar is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6488, up 0.54%. The Australian currency slid 1.18% on Tuesday, following the stronger-than-expected US inflation report. The Australian dollar suffered its worst one-day performance on Monday since October 2023, sinking 1.16%. This was due to the US inflation report, which fell from 3.4% to 3.1% but was higher than the market estimate of 2.9%. Core CPI remained unchanged at 3.9%, above the market estimate of 3.7%. The markets reacted to the inflation reading by paring expectations of a March rate cut to just 4%, compared to 16% prior to the report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In December, the odds of a rate cut in March were above 70%, but strong US data and the Fed’s pushback against a March cut have virtually wiped out the chances of a March move. The markets have fully priced in an initial cut in June but if the economy shows signs of weakness, a May cut is also possible. Australia releases January employment data on Thursday. The economy lost 65,100 jobs in December, with full-time employment sliding by a massive 106,600, as part-time jobs rose 41,400. We should see a rebound from these very soft numbers, with the market estimate for employment change standing at 30,000. The reading could have a significant impact on interest rate policy, as the central bank has said that its rate decisions will be data-dependent. Australia will also release inflation expectations on Thursday. The RBA will be watching carefully, as inflation expectations can translate into real inflation. Inflation expectations were unchanged at 4.5% in January and are expected to ease to 4.3% in February. AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6478. The next resistance line is 0.6514 0.6419 and 0.6383 and providing support
by OANDA
Mitigation + BOS M15 Setup In this scenario, we examine a very common approach: trend continuation. The particular aspect of viewing it in this light compared to simply looking at trendlines is how we can identify demand zones and structural changes called BOS. Prices always tend to retrace in these zones before continuing. Personally, I identify demand or supply zones at H4, and once the price retraces, I look for rebounds at M15. In that timeframe, I aim to identify a structural change to the upside if I'm looking for a long position. Sometimes during an uptrend, it's very common to identify inefficiencies or FVG, which in turn support the price during retracement. Best wishes and happy trading to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD volatile after UK jobs, US inflation dataIt has been a hectic day for the British pound, after key releases on both sides of the pond. In Tuesday’s North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2594, down 0.26%. The pound edged higher after the UK employment report but dropped sharply after US inflation was higher than expected. The UK employment report indicated that the labour market is cooling but remains strong. Employment change rose 72,000 in the three months to December, down from a revised 108,000 a month earlier and just shy of the market estimate of 73,000. Average earnings including bonuses fell to 5.8%, down from a revised 6.7% but above the market consensus of 5.6%. The Bank of England will be paying particular interest to the wage growth numbers. The decline in wages will be welcome, as it is a driver of inflation, but the current rate of wage growth is much too high as it is incompatible with a 2% inflation target. The UK releases inflation data on Wednesday, with CPI expected to rise from 4% to 4.2% and core CPI projected to inch up to 5.2%, up from 5.1%. A rise in the inflation rate would be disappointing for the BoE and would likely lower market expectations for a rate cut. The British pound climbed 0.25% after the UK employment report, but headed south after the US inflation report and declined by 0.65%. The US dollar posted strong gains against all the major currencies after January’s inflation report indicated that inflation was hotter than expected. US CPI rose 3.1% y/y in January, down from 3.4% in December but higher than the market estimate of 2.9%. Core CPI remained unchanged at 3.9%, above the market estimate of 3.7%. The Fed has been pushing back against market expectations for a rate cut in March, and the hotter-than-expected inflation release lowered the odds of a March cut to just 4%, compared to 16% prior to the release, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The markets have widely priced an initial rate cut for June but strong US data could mean a rate cut as early as May. GBP/USD tested support at 1.2597 and this line remains under pressure. Below, there is support at 1.2550 There is resistance at 1.2676 and 1.2723
by OANDA
Bitcoin Sell The News // Buy the the dipIn light of the recent launch of the Bitcoin ETF on January 5th, 2024, and the consequential potential market impacts, a comprehensive analysis is warranted. The underlying dynamics of this analysis are twofold: firstly, the introduction of the Bitcoin ETF, a significant event in the cryptocurrency sphere, is expected to substantially influence market liquidity and investor sentiment. Secondly, the CME Group's probability tool, a sophisticated financial instrument for forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes, is currently indicating a high likelihood of the first interest rate cuts of 2024 occurring in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for March 19th. Furthermore, this analysis takes into account the revised Non-Farm Payroll figures for the entirety of 2023, which were adjusted downwards for 10 out of the 12 months. This revision paints a rather dismal picture of the economic landscape over the previous year, indicating a potentially protracted period of economic stagnation or even contraction. Such a scenario unavoidably caused investors to mis-price their models around a stable economy and soft landing. These will be re-adjusted over the coming weeks. Given these factors, the hypothesis of this analysis is that Bitcoin, being a highly speculative asset, will likely undergo a corrective phase in the short term. This is anticipated to result in a retracement of Bitcoin’s value towards the $28,000 to $30,000 range. This projection is based on a combination of technical analysis, market sentiment, and the historical price behavior of Bitcoin in response to similar macroeconomic conditions. The expected downward trend, however, is predicted to be temporary. As the date of the anticipated rate cuts draws closer, it is forecasted that Bitcoin will experience a significant rebound. This prediction is rooted in the historical precedent that loose monetary policies, such as rate cuts, tend to create favorable conditions for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Investors, anticipating a more accommodative monetary environment, might increase their exposure to Bitcoin, thereby driving up its price. In conclusion, while the short-term outlook for Bitcoin may be bearish due to the factors outlined above, there is a strong potential for a swift recovery and upward momentum as the March 19th FOMC meeting approaches and market conditions evolve. This analysis recommends close monitoring of both macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment to capitalize on the anticipated volatility in Bitcoin’s price.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by PudgyProdigy
3
Sol Buy the Dip TA levels of interest for BINANCE:SOLUSDT Please note that this is a preliminary research and you should continue to do your own research (DYOR). Information about assets can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay updated with the most recent developments. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 (Or S1-S3) has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's, in-between or in Between Sell levels these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
Short
by PudgyProdigy
1
Pullback After Breakout Entry M15 ApproachIn this model, we define an approach that I personally use a lot, namely the creation of a demand or supply zone on the H4. In this case, we are observing a demand zone. Once the zone has been plotted on the chart, we wait for a retracement on the M15, and as soon as the market shows a structural change, in this case to the upside during the three London, pre-NY, and NY sessions, always considering to have the midnight open behind us, we can enter the market. The target will be the nearest swing high level, always considering to have at least a risk/reward ratio of 1.5. Best regards and have a good day everyone.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
GBP/USD eyes Bailey, jobs reportThe British pound is showing limited movement at the start of the week. In Monday's North American session, GBP/USD is unchanged at 1.2629. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak at a public event later today and the markets will be listening carefully, looking for hints about the BoE's future rate path. The BOE kept rates unchanged at 5.25% for a fifth straight time at the meeting on January 31, as expected. The MPC vote was a surprise, however, with a three-way split. This indicates a divergence of views among MPC members as to the future rate path. Inflation is running at a 3.9% clip, well above the 2% target and maintaining rates in restrictive territory should push inflation lower. At the same time, elevated interest rates could tip the weak UK economy into a recession, and weary home owners are looking for relief from high mortgage payments. After Bailey's remarks, market attention will focus on Tuesday's employment report. The labour market has been cooling but remains in good shape and strong wage growth continues to drive inflation, which is a major headache for the BoE. The economy is projected to have added 73,000 jobs in the three months to December, compared to 108,000 in the three months to November. Unemployment is expected to creep up to 4.0%, up from 3.9%, while average earnings including bonuses is projected to ease to 5.6%, down from 6.5%. The Federal Reserve may have signaled that rate cuts are coming, but it has remained hawkish and continues to push back against market expectations of a rate cut. In December, Fed rate odds for a March cut were above 70%, but the odds have been shaved down to just 15%, as the US economy remains surprisingly strong and Fed members have dampened hopes of a March cut. We'll hear later today from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. Last week, Barkin said that he wants to be sure that inflation is clearly headed to 2% before he supports lowering rates and his comments later today will likely reflect this stance. There is resistance at 1.2675 and 1.2723 There is support at 1.2597 and 1.2550
by OANDA
GBPUSD is calm before the storm towards 1.27GBP/USD continues to stay in positive territory above 1.2600 during Wednesday's American session. The pair benefited from improved risk sentiment on Tuesday, recording a 0.5% increase and offsetting much of Monday's losses. The decrease in US Treasury bond yields led to the depreciation of the US dollar against its major rivals on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden stated on Wednesday that she is less concerned about further increases in the bank interest rate, emphasizing her focus on the duration of rates at current levels. After a relatively static day, the market created a new demand area after a slight increase, targeting liquidity around 1.2330. Now, I expect a retest of the demand area with a subsequent increase towards 1.2730. I will evaluate the situation tomorrow morning during the opening of the London markets to see if there are conditions for a long entry. Wishing everyone good trades and hoping for increased volatility in the coming days.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL | Pay Attention at the Level $71-$72!Oil has found support in a demand zone, with a retest of an upward trendline and a 0.62% Fibonacci level, suggesting the possibility of a recovery towards new highs. On the chart, I've identified a yellow box where the price could consolidate, drawing liquidity below the swing low before resuming the upward movement. As for the fundamental analysis: Qatar is actively working to mediate a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, facilitating hostage exchanges. Qatar's consistent success in negotiating between the conflicting parties is impacting the crude oil price, especially in a context of easing geopolitical tensions. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will face a long-term challenge in 2024 and 2025 as it tries to limit global production outside of OPEC. They impose strict production quotas on member countries, while non-OPEC producers, such as the United States, exceed OPEC pumping limits. US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) recorded a significant increase in January, reaching a twelve-month high with 353,000 new jobs, well above the market's average forecasts of 180,000. With the US economy demonstrating remarkable resilience and the US labor market remaining at historical highs, the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to support the market continues to decrease. Greetings and best wishes for a great weekend to everyone.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD | The situation is crucial after the NFPEUR/USD has recovered to the 1.0750 area and stabilized during the day after dropping towards 1.0720 in Tuesday's European session. The US dollar maintains its strength across the currency market, despite the momentum easing along with the run-up in government bond yields. Financial markets are still digesting the global delays in interest rate cuts, which are not expected to come as soon as anticipated. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its monetary policy decision, leaving rates unchanged as widely expected. However, local policymakers have joined the cautious trend, stating that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out. Asian stocks saw mixed trading, with Chinese indices supported by government intervention. On the data front, Germany reported an 8.9% month-on-month increase in factory orders in December, surpassing market expectations. Conversely, the Eurozone reported a 1.1% month-on-month decrease in retail sales for the same month, worse than expected. Graphically, the breakout of a downward channel at H4 with a price retest, which may extend further downwards, even though few movements are expected in the coming sessions in the absence of news; expecting major surprises will be difficult. The market may retrace to the 1.0714 level, corresponding to the 62% Fibonacci level, or to the 1.0650 level, i.e., the 0.705% Fibonacci level. So I expect to start evaluating a long position in that area. Greetings and good evening to everyone.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD New lows approaching $2010After a quiet European session near $2,020 on Tuesday, gold turned higher and surpassed $2,030. Following Monday's sharp increase, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond fell by more than 1% during the day, allowing XAU/USD to rise further. Financial markets are all focused on delayed interest rate cuts after central bankers worldwide have tempered investors' expectations for tighter monetary policies. Tuesday saw the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) join the cautious stance, with policymakers deciding to keep the door open for further rate hikes if conditions require. Meanwhile, solid US macroeconomic data have further diminished the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. As a result, government bond yields have risen, supporting the US dollar. Additionally, on a chart level, there is an uncertain recovery in gold, which could return to the $2050 area to regain liquidity at the 0.705 Fibonacci level before dropping to the $2010 zone. This is my expectation at H4, and I will carefully monitor the changes in this pair. Regards and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Economy of the last 100 years resumed Gold and Purchasing PowerThis is just a simple observation of what happened with Gold in the last 100 years. Here I show some important economic events highlighting the purchasing power with a red line. When you open a GOLD chart, you can look at the trend and think that it had a very strong bull market during the last century. And you are right, it had a very strong one, but against your currency. In reality, the value of GOLD has not increased that much. The purchasing power chart speaks by itself. Most central banks are private entities that are not controlled by the governments of the countries. From the chart, I can deduce that In a bank, you can keep the money, but not it's value. What do you think about central banks, is a fair system? Write it in the comments. If something of what I wrote here is not correct, please let me know.
TVC:GOLD
by piccard54
USD/CAD dips as Canadian employment shinesThe Canadian dollar has climbed higher in the North American session after the release of Canada's December employment report. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3432, down 0.20%. Canada usually posts employment reports on the same Friday as the US, but had the stage all to itself today, as the US posted its job report last week. The news was good as employment jumped by 37,300 in January, smashing the market estimate of 15,000. The December reading was revised upwards to 12,300 from the initial estimate of just 0.1 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.7%, down from 5.8% in December and below the market estimate of 5.7%.  As well, average hourly earnings eased to 5.3% y/y in January, compared to 5.7% a month earlier. The Bank of Canada will be carefully monitoring the jobs data. Employment growth jumped, which points to a stronger labour market, but at the same time wage growth dropped. Wages are a key driver of inflation and today's decline will support the BoC continuing to pause and not cut rates until the middle of the year or later. The BoC is content to continue its "higher for longer" stance and let high rates continue pushing inflation lower. The central bank's top priority remains bringing down inflation to the 2% target, but businesses and consumers, especially homeowners, are groaning under the weight of elevated rates and are looking for some relief from the BoC. The Federal Reserve continues to push back against rate cut expectations in March. This week, a host of Fed members delivered the message that inflation is heading lower but the Fed remains cautious and isn't yet ready to lower rates, as the battle against inflation is not yet won. The markets have taken note of the Fed’s pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 17%, down from over 70% in December, according to the CME’s Fed Watch tool. USD/CAD tested support at 1.3434 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.3392 1.3509 and 1.3551 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Equal High & Low SweepToday I wanted to talk about two scenarios concerning market structure: the equal high for a bullish structure and the low sweep for a bearish structure. The crucial point of each setup, as always, is to identify a structural change called BOS. From there, I start looking for a demand or supply zone in the market where we should pay attention to observe the price return. This price return should occur as indicated in the setup, with the market starting to consolidate and form a double bottom or top of momentum. It is also important to consider the presence of a liquidity zone, as this will be our primary target zone, followed by the minimum or maximum of the structure. I wish everyone happy trading and remain available for further discussions on the matter.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD eyes German inflationEUR/USD is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, the euro is trading at 1.0751, down 0.20%. Germany's CPI is expected at 0.2% m/m on Friday, which would confirm the initial estimate from two weeks earlier. On an annualized basis, the initial estimate for CPI came in at 2.9% in January, down sharply from 3.7% in December. A deceleration in energy and food costs was the driver of the downturn in January, which was the lowest inflation rate since June 2021. Core inflation has also been falling, with the initial estimate showing a drop to 3.4%, its lowest rate since June 2022. The drop in German inflation is not all that surprising, as the eurozone's largest economy has been struggling. Germany's manufacturing sector has been in prolonged decline and the services sector is sputtering, with five declines in the past six months. The economy declined in the fourth quarter and another contraction in Q1 would mean that Germany will have entered a technical recession. The eurozone is also grappling with a weak economy, with the latest evidence earlier this week as retail sales slipped 1.1% m/m in December. Despite weak economic conditions in the eurozone and Germany, the European Central Bank has been hesitant to cut interest rates. ECB members have expressed concern that inflation could make a comeback if the ECB were to cut rates too early. That could force the ECB to raise rates again and the optics of such a zig-zag would be disastrous. For now, the ECB remains hawkish on rate policy and is content to continue holding rates until inflation falls closer to the 2% target. Since last week's Fed meeting, a host of Fed members have delivered the message that inflation is heading in the right direction but the Fed plans to be patient and is in no rush to lower rates. The markets have taken note of the Fed's pushback and have pared expectations of a rate cut in March to 18%, down from over 70% in January, according to the CME's Fed Watch tool. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0746 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.0704 There is resistance at 1.0822 and 1.0864
by OANDA
The Best Entry on the MarketIn this model, we will examine a tactical approach to achieve high-performance entry. It all starts with an uptrend characterized by continuous structural changes. In fact, there are continuous directional changes until the retest of the supply zone on M30. Subsequently, the market reacts to this zone by pushing downwards and generating a CHoCH. Here, switching to a 1-minute timeframe, it will be possible to wait for a retest of the supply zone before entering. The trade will target the session or daily low. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPUSD | 1.2626 will be the new high before the crash!The GBP/USD, after a significant descent, has finally reached the demand zone at the level of 1.2535. In this area, I anticipate a possible upward structural change on M15 during tomorrow's London session. Subsequently, I could consider entering the market with the goal of reaching the level of 1.2626, where a significant liquidity volume is present. Regarding the fundamental analysis, the GBP/USD has again been subject to bearish pressures, touching the lowest point since mid-December below 1.2550 on Monday. The widespread strength of the US dollar, fueled by impressive labor market data and the recent optimistic PMI report, continues to influence the pair. During the North American trading session, the GBP/USD recorded losses of 0.74%, trading at 1.2535. Factors such as last Friday's US economic data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over the weekend keep the US dollar higher in a risk-off context. Jerome Powell stated in an interview that it is premature to consider rate cuts, emphasizing that the goal of pushing inflation towards its 2% target has not been fully achieved. In last week's January Nonfarm Payrolls report, 353,000 Americans were added to the workforce, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7%. US Treasury yields remain high throughout the day, supporting the greenback as investors recalibrate their bets on Fed rate cuts. Last week, they estimated the Federal Funds rate (FFR) to reach 3.96%, but following Powell's weekend comments, they expect it to reach 4.26%. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises by 0.44%, reaching 104.42.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1