XAUUSD is getting closer to $2060The price of gold is back in positive territory, heading to retest the two-week high of $2,056 set on Wednesday. The US Dollar is losing momentum amid a renewed appetite for risk, as markets applaud China's fiscal support while assessing the interest rate outlook of the United States Federal Reserve. China's Vice Finance Minister, Wang Dongwei, announced on Thursday that they "will appropriately increase investment under the central government budget," which "will help expand domestic demand." This comes after China's Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained at 50.8 in January, suggesting steady growth in the country's manufacturing sector. US Treasury bond yields declined on Wednesday, dragging the US Dollar down, following the ADP Employment Change data coming in below estimates at 107,000, and the Treasury Department's quarterly announcement that it would sell $121 billion in notes and bonds next week, up from $112 billion last quarter. However, a relatively hawkish tone from the Fed, following its two-day policy meeting, failed to offer any relief to US Treasury bond yields, while the US Dollar rose on the Fed's resistance to a rate cut in March. The US central bank extended the pause, as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said, "based on the meeting today, I don't think it's likely we will have a rate cut in March." Currently, markets are pricing in a 35% probability that the Fed will cut rates in March, while for May, the odds stand at 92%. All eyes now turn toward Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls data to confirm the resistance to a rate cut by the Fed until May. Ahead of that, traders will look to US Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Cost (Q4), and ISM Manufacturing PMI data for fresh trading impetus in the gold price. The upcoming data could help reprice the market's expectations for the dovish Fed pivot. Gold, after breaking through a supply zone at the $2,033 level, continued its ascent to the liquidity zone at the $2,060 level. Now, I expect a bounce in the new demand zone before continuing the rally towards $2,060, a level increasingly in focus after the Fed. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Fed
The Best Strategy of 2024: Reversal Entry ModelGood morning, today I would like to draw your attention to a model that I am integrating into my analyses for this year. In this model, we define simple structural changes either downwards or upwards, in this context downwards using two BOS. Subsequently, we define the main demand zone where the price retests. After the retest, the price breaks upwards the structure creating a CHOCH, or an internal breakout. Afterwards, the price will move into a lateral phase accumulating a lot of liquidity, and as it is known, as soon as the price absorbs liquidity above or below a range, it then moves in the opposite direction of the filled liquidity. In this case, liquidity is absorbed below in the order block zone and the price moves upwards. I recommend supplementing charts with this model and identifying these setups starting from an H4 timeframe which can be simpler compared to smaller timeframes. Best regards and happy trading to everyone.
EURUSD | New Low to 1.0750 before the Rally!EUR/USD, after breaking through a demand zone between 1.07 and 1.0790, is now heading towards another demand area at the level of 1.075, coinciding with the low of the bearish channel. This zone could be significant for an upward reversal in price, with a potential return towards 1.09. It will be crucial to assess the price action at the London opening this morning, especially considering the reaction to the NFP data after the sharp drop on Friday.
From a fundamental perspective, the US Dollar is strengthening as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delays potential rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are further supporting the Dollar. We are awaiting EU Sentix data and US ISM PMI. In the post-meeting press conference on Wednesday, Powell stated that "unexpected weakening in the labor market would lead us to cut rates earlier than expected."
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 37.5% probability that the Fed will reduce the policy rate by 25 bps to 5%-5.25% in March, while this probability rises to 60% for May. Warm regards and happy trading to all.
Gold:Bullish Dollar and potential downsidesIn today's trading session, our focus is on XAUUSD as we identify a potential selling opportunity around the 2034 zone. Gold, amidst a downtrend, currently navigates a correction phase, nearing the 2034 support and resistance area. Adding a fundamental layer to this analysis, the recent warning from the Fed serves as a crucial factor influencing market sentiment. This cautionary stance from the Fed contributes to the overall cautious outlook on XAUUSD.
Furthermore, it's essential to delve into the relationship between Gold and the USD. Gold often exhibits a negative correlation with the USD, meaning that as the value of the USD strengthens, Gold prices tend to decline. This negative correlation stems from the fact that Gold is priced in USD globally. Therefore, any strengthening of the USD typically leads to a decrease in demand for Gold, resulting in downward pressure on its price.
Trade safe, Joe.
MARKETS week ahead: February 5 – 11Last week in the news
Fed kept interest rates unchanged during the previous week, with Powell`s note that they have “probably '' peaked, showing Fed`s final alignment with the market. Their decision had a modest impact on financial markets during the previous week, considering that it has been widely expected. The US equity indices continued to move around ATH`s, while US Treasuries eased on Fed's decision but reacted on latest jobs data. Gold has its move toward $2.050 resistance, but returned after the USD gained in value. BTC continued to struggle to break the $43K, but still, without success for the last three weeks.
The FOMC meeting was in the spotlight of the market during the previous week. As it was widely expected, Fed left rates unchanged, noting that they have “probably” peaked at this level. But, Fed Chair Powell, kept a dose of reserve regarding the forthcoming potential rate cuts. He noted that the Fed members are expecting to see that the inflation is on a clear down road toward the targeted 2%, and until they are certain in data, they will not move interest rates from current levels. At the same time, the US economy continues to show resilience to high interest rates. Published data for non-farm payrolls for January outperformed market expectations of 180K, reaching 353K. Unemployment rate was left at 3.7%, although the market was expecting to see a modest increase to 3.8%.
The “battle” between BTC ETF funds continues for the third week in a row. BlackRock`s IBIT and ProShares BITO have surpassed Grayscale`s GBTC trading volumes. Current daily trading volumes range around $300 million, however, as news is reporting, volumes are slowly decreasing. The latest selling pressure on the crypto market came as a result of FTX`s sales, where it was sold over $1 billion worth of the GBTC. On the opposite side are some industry professionals who are proponents of holding real BTC, instead of buying one through ETF`s, putting in a first plan “financial ownership and sovereignty”, which was the real purpose behind the BTC.
The largest Chinese real estate company, Evergrande, has been liquidated by the court order in Hong Kong during the previous week. Two years ago, the same company defaulted on its debt in the US, and filed for bankruptcy in the United States. It is still unclear how it will affect other businesses around Evergrande, but what is currently reported by the news is that a court-appointed liquidator will start selling Evergrande`s assets in order to pay its debtors.
Crypto market cap
During the previous week the FOMC meeting was in the spotlight. Markets were looking to hear the stance of Fed officials on the current economic outlook in the US. Although the Fed was aligned with the market and kept interest rates unchanged, still, what is almost sure is that rate cuts will not be on the table for Fed at least until May this year, as per current market anticipation. The crucial point for the Fed is to find a right moment between increasing interest rates too high and cutting them too early. Both scenarios could have negative implications on the US economy, which the Fed is trying to avoid. Based on the latest output of the US economy, it seems that Fed`s measures gave results without hurting the economy, however, the main issue for the Fed is whether the inflation will clearly return to 2% target, or it will be postponed. While equity markets are reacting quite positively to such economic developments, the crypto market is slowly entering into a calmer phase. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by modest 2% or $ 32B during the previous week, out of which almost 89% is participation of funds flow into the BTC. Daily trading volumes continue to decrease to the level of around $ 69B on a daily basis, from $85B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization decrease since the beginning of this year stands at 2%, with a total $38B lost in value of the market.
The crypto market performed in a mixed manner during the previous week. The highest inflow of funds had BTC, which increased its cap by almost 3%, adding $24B to its market value. Ether also ended the week in a positive territory, with an increase in market cap by 1.7% or $4.6B. Solana had a good performance with a surge in value of almost 6.5%, adding $2.5B to its value. From other major altcoins LINK should be especially mentioned as its market cap surged by 28.7% on a weekly basis, adding total $2.3B to its cap. Cardano had a good week, with an increase in value of 7.3%, while Monero was up by 5.1% within a week. Several coins ended the week in red, like Bitcoin Gold, with a drop in value of 2.5%, OMG Network dropped by 4.3%, while Stellar was down by almost 4% on a weekly basis.
Coins in circulation have been more active than usual during the previous week. Litecoin increased its coins on the market by 4.3% within a single week while LINK had an increase of 2.8%. Solana`s coins in circulation were up by 0.7%, Filecoin had an increase by 0.8%, while Polkadot, and Tether`s circulating coins surged by 0.2% on a weekly basis. Several other coins had an increase of 0.1%.
Crypto futures market
Optimism on the futures market was higher than the one currently holding the spot market. Short term futures for both BTC and ETH were holding in line with the spot market, and were increased by 2.2% and 1.9% respectively. The major weekly development was with long term futures.
BTC long term futures were traded higher modestly below 8% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $46.090, while those maturing a year later were last traded at price $49.520. The market continues to hold a positive perception for the future price of BTC.
ETH long term futures were traded around 3.5% higher from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year were last traded at price $2.423, while those maturing in December 2025 closed the week at price $2.560. Both BTC and ETH long term futures are slowly returning toward the levels from the beginning of this year, which were above $50K for BTC and $2.8K for ETH.
Non-farm payrolls surpriseThe US reported a gain of 353K jobs in January, nearly double the expectations of 180K. On top of upward revisions worth 126K.
Wages rose by 0.6%, double the expectations, and YoY they are up 4.5%, smashing estimates of 4.1%.
Excellent data meant a straightforward reaction, with minimal reversals and an ongoing extension. The US Dollar is up, Gold is down, and stocks are also down, on fears of higher rates, while ignoring the good news for the economy.
I expect the Dollar to remain on the rise for the remainder of the day. Any corrections will have to wait for Monday. Nevertheless, the odds of a rate cut in March are down, and only a dive in inflation could change that notion. In the meantime, the trend is clear.
Will EURUSD return to 1.0810?The EUR/USD is extending gains towards the 1.0900 level in the early European morning hours on Friday. The US dollar is struggling to find strength, allowing the euro to rise further in an optimistic climate. All eyes are now on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. Regarding the dollar, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has remained within the established multi-day range as market participants continued to digest the latest developments from the January 31 FOMC event. On this note, it is worth remembering that Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is ready to maintain the current policy rate for an extended period, if necessary. He emphasized that substantial advancements in inflation are uncertain and hinted at the possibility of initiating rate cuts at some point this year. Powell underscored the tight labor market, also acknowledging the potentially negative impact on the economy if rate cuts were delayed. He emphasized that decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, expressing the belief that the policy rate has likely peaked and suggesting at the same time that a rate cut in March seemed unlikely. In the future, investors are expected to keep the possibility of the first rate cut in March or May open, with probabilities of around 37% and 60%, respectively, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. NFP should provide further details on the timing of any future interest rate decisions. On this point, another strong employment data in January should maintain the idea of a tight labor market and strengthen the perception of a soft landing amid a persistently resilient economy, ultimately supporting the idea of a Fed rate cut in May and thus supporting the US dollar as well as short-term yields. As for the technical forecast, I expect a liquidity grab above the Asia highs at the 1.09 level with a structural change downward on the M5 and the formation of a FVG, which will be our entry point for a short trade down to 1.081. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: For gold , we highlight the short-term scenario in long. Metals , especially gold , resisted the pressure of the US dollar best; here the context for growth is, in principle, prepared. There are two main scenarios for growth and all are aimed at updating short-term highs towards the region 2060-2070.
This expected movement will most likely be followed by a downward correction or the formation of a balance for continued growth.
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⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: Similar to the situation with EURUSD , for the British currency we are also starting to consider a medium-term purchase. Yes, the US dollar has begun to strengthen as we expected, but most likely the growth of the American currency will not be as impressive as we expected. One of the options would be to fix part of the volume and move the transaction to breakeven. Our proposed long trade is of a medium-term nature, so a step by step set of positions will be used here.
As always, we highlight two scenarios, but in fact they can be combined into one, which involves a step by step accumulation of a long position.
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⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY
Comment: After the Fed meeting, as we expected, the US currency strengthened based on the results of the press conference and comments from the regulator. However, the growth of the dollar is already approaching its end and most likely now we need to take a closer look at medium-term purchases. We are now considering two main long scenarios. The first option assumes that no particularly large drops are expected yet, the second option suggests, on the contrary, a deeper fall towards the level of 1.06500 . The main recovery target is located at the level of 1.09000.
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USD opportunity? Market overestimating March rate cut? USD opportunity? Market overestimating March rate cut?
The market is only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut from the US Fed in March now. Is this probability too high still? Jerome Powell spoke after the latest FOMC decision yesterday and noted that it was unlikely that the Fed would be cutting rates in March.
Why is the market still pricing in a 30% chance? Should it not be closer to 10% or less? So, according to this hypothesis, might there be an opportunity to go long on the US dollar until at least March?
And then, thinking a little further past March: When the Fed does finally cut its rate, is there a play to make by anticipating how large of a cut they will enact? The Fed is known for acting a little late, so a 50bps cut, rather than a 25bps cut, is not entirely unlikely as they rush to loosen their grip on the economy if it begins overshooting their target (constricts too much).
GBPNZD must make a choice! 2.06 or 2.094GBPNZD currently exhibits a bearish structure highlighted by this bearish channel. Currently, the price, after bouncing off the bottom of this channel, is at a crucial point. The latest bullish reaction has led to the formation of a demand zone, ranging from 2.0760 to 2.0940.
If the bearish trend maintains its strength, it is possible that the price will decline to break the demand zone, reaching the level of 2.06. At this level, the lower side of the channel and the demand zone intersect. Personally, I anticipate a potential bullish turnaround at this specific point, and that's where I will look for an entry point at H4.
I will keep you updated. Greetings and happy trading to all, from Nicola.
GBPUSD : Mitigation Before the Fed and of a New HighThe GBP/USD remains in a defensive position, trading in the negative territory around 1.2650 during the American session on Tuesday. The careful market approach is assisting the USD in maintaining resilience against its competitors following a release of mixed data. This cautious sentiment is putting pressure on the currency pair as it approaches the upcoming Fed and BoE meetings. The GBP/USD experienced little change at the beginning of the week but encountered slight bearish pressure early on Tuesday. During the European session, the pair is trading below 1.2700, and the technical analysis suggests a lack of interest from buyers. The prudent market stance is bolstering the US Dollar (USD), creating challenges for the GBP/USD to gain momentum on Tuesday. Investors are particularly uneasy about the escalating conflict in the Middle East. This negative sentiment is reflected in US stock index futures, which are trading in the red. Concurrently, the FTSE 100 Index in the UK opened higher but retreated slightly. If Wall Street's main indices turn positive after the opening bell, the USD might weaken, aiding the GBP/USD in limiting its losses. The US economic calendar will highlight December JOLT Job Openings data and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for January, which improved to 110.7 from 101.0 in November. While a positive sentiment could boost demand for the USD, investors are unlikely to take significant positions ahead of the policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
The price has reacted well in the demand zone at the 1.26-1.2640 level with a bounce at the 0.705 Fibonacci level. The upward movement seems interesting, but I don't believe the price can gather much momentum given the swing high at the 1.2720 level and the high liquidity that the price could absorb before retracing further. So, I expect another day of consolidation awaiting the Fed, and then we'll see if the price can indeed push higher towards the 1.2750 area as the first target. I will keep you updated on the situation, keep an eye on macro data. Happy trading to all, greetings from Nicola.
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day:
Fed Reaction
In the morning update for February 1, 2024, the focus is on the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's recent policy announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged recent inflation but emphasized the need for more data before making decisions. The market responded with a 1.6% drop in the S&P 500, the most significant since September, although a partial rebound is expected.
Real Estate Concerns
Concerns over US commercial real estate further complicated the market's reaction, with New York Community Bancorp's decisions causing a record 38% stock drop. Aozora Bank and Deutsche Bank also voiced concerns about US commercial property, impacting global bond markets.
Tech Earnings Deluge
In the tech sector, three major players—Apple, Amazon, and Meta—are set to report earnings. Google's parent company, Alphabet, and Microsoft experienced negative responses to their recent results.
Contrasting Fortunes
In European earnings news, Deutsche Bank's shares rose despite real estate concerns, fueled by plans for a share buyback and higher revenue goals. Shell defied oil price slumps with a fourth-quarter profit surpassing estimates, while Adidas and BNP Paribas faced declines due to lower profit guidance and lowered targets, respectively.
BOE Decision
The Bank of England's policy decision is anticipated, focusing on the timing of its first rate cut.
In the US, economic data on initial jobless claims and manufacturing is expected, leading up to tomorrow's highly awaited payroll numbers.
SMC Sell Setup: High Probability EntryGood morning everyone, today we will explore a short entry model using the concepts of smart money. This model involves entering the market in a short position after a series of specific patterns. Firstly, we start with a bearish structure where the price breaks a significant low, creating a BOS. Subsequently, we will identify the SMC zone, which is a trap zone to avoid. In this zone, the price makes a false descent before rising, creating the most important peak that we will use to evaluate a short entry.
After identifying this peak, the market begins to decline, forming a CHOCH, representing an internal break. This will signal our sell point, and we could define our sell zone indicated by the POI on the chart. Once the price enters this zone, we may consider opening a short position on the security. Greetings to everyone.
GBP/USD Forms Bullish Triangle with Target at 1.25The GBP/USD currency pair is having difficulty finding a decisive short-term direction and is fluctuating within a well-known trading range. Reduced bets on an imminent interest rate cut by the Bank of England support the British Pound (GBP) and provide some backing to the currency pair. Although the short-term technical outlook has yet to reveal a bearish momentum build-up, buyers may remain discouraged unless the pair manages to reclaim 1.2700. Positive macroeconomic data from the United States boosted the US Dollar (USD) during Thursday's American session. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US Gross Domestic Product grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter (first estimate). This exceeded market expectations for a 2% expansion and contributed to the USD outperforming its peers. The GDP report on Thursday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter, matching the previous quarter's increase and market expectations. Personally, I have speculated on a possible decline in the pound on the daily chart, highlighting a supply zone at the level of 1.271, which is a strong resistance point, and two closely spaced demand zones that could act as support between the levels of 1.256 and 1.259. Additionally, I have outlined two trendlines, one bearish and one bullish, forming an overall bullish triangle. Despite this, the price is currently at the upper side of the triangle. Therefore, in my opinion, it is ready for a descent towards 1.25, considering the support from the EMA21. The macroeconomic data this week will be interesting with the Fed in view, especially after the purchases of EUR and GBP in conjunction with the dollar seem to have been stagnant for over two weeks, a truly stalled market situation. Greetings and a good trading day to everyone from Nicola.
EURJPY | Sell Idea after the FEDEURJPY broke below 159 in the hours leading up to the FED, and as per the manual, the yen gained strength before the most anticipated event of the month. Now the price is in a reversal zone, specifically around the 62-78 Fibonacci levels, and I anticipate a retracement to the 160 level where a supply zone has just been formed after breaking a crucial swing low. When the price returns to the 160 level, I will consider a short entry if the market on the H4 chart retraces to crucial Fibonacci levels, forming well-defined spikes, and if on the M15 chart, the price structurally breaks downward. Always keeping in mind the presence of a midnight spike indicator, I will enter the market only if there is a recovery margin of at least 1.5%, risking 1%. Therefore, it will be crucial to assess whether the descent is free from liquidity constraints. Greetings and happy trading to all; the FED meeting awaits us.
GBPCAD could go up to 1.7138 after the BOEGBPCAD has started to show upward strength after bouncing at the 1.70 level, where a demand zone is located. The price underwent a significant structural change on the M15 timeframe yesterday, presenting a trading opportunity that could have yielded a 1% profit before the release of Canadian data. Personally, I did not execute that trade. Currently, it appears to be resuming its trajectory towards the higher swing point, where there is liquidity to fill at the 1.7138 level. Today, the BOE interest rates are expected, so pay attention to potential entries during the London session and possible spikes during the rate announcement. Personally, I would consider an entry, provided the conditions are met, after the rate announcement to have a more comprehensive view of the chart and macroeconomic factors. Naturally, I will assess a structural change to the upside on the M15 to confirm my long-term bullish outlook. Greetings and happy trading to everyone.
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction: SELL
Comment: The situation with metals is quite ambiguous, but nevertheless, considering this instrument from a medium-term point of view, most likely the instrument does not intend to grow yet. According to our two short scenarios, we expect a false upward move before the fall. Of course, this is the first more positive scenario for sellers. Here you can only guess and react at the moment. These supposed upward movements can be formulated during the Fed meeting and press conference. The main goal of these sales is the level of 2000 exactly. It should be noted that the downside potential most likely does not end there.
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⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction : SELL
Comment: Just as in the case of the euro, the British pound is also under the target of sales, however, it should be noted that the potential for a fall here is lower than that of the former. We have previously written about selling using this instrument and continue to adhere to this. Today marks the start of a rather busy period of the week, and the main focus of attention is, of course, the Fed and its rhetoric about upcoming policy. Just like for the euro, we highlight two scenarios. The only difference between them is the depth of the supposed false upward movement. The target is common and is at the level of 1.25000 .
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⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction: SELL
Comment: As before, despite everything, we continue to adhere to sales in euros. The main target for the fall is the level of 1.07000 , which is also relevant before the upcoming Fed meeting. Of course, more attention will be focused on the press-conference and what mood the regulator will show. If the scenario with the ECB repeats, where it indicated a likely rate cut, then of course this will not benefit the American currency. In this case, the instrument will most likely recover to the level of 1.09000 and even try to update local highs near this level. However, if the rhetoric is more hawkish, then of course this will allow the US dollar to remove all leverage and go to 1.07000 and possibly even lower. Here it should be noted that technically and in terms of volumes, everything is on the side of the dollar .
Before the Fed meeting and, in fact, a busy day, since we are expecting the release of inflation in Germany and preliminary data on non-farm , we highlight two scenarios for selling the euro , since this is the main direction now.
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FED Press Conference SummaryThe FED left rates unchanged as expected and removed language talking about potentially raising rates – also fully expected.
The hawkish twist came from a comment on waiting to be more confident about falling inflation. That sent the USD up, risk assets down.
Then came Powell with a dovish comment – he signaled the Fed only needs a continuation of data, not another big fall in inflation. That sent the US Dollar down.
He then made a blunt hawkish twist – saying a March rate cut is unlikely, and not the base case. That triggered a wild reaction in favor of the Greenback and against everything else.
He then calmed down by saying it all depends on the economy – data-dependent.
All in all, the USD ends the day higher, stocks lower, Gold lower.
But, it's not over. I still expect markets to look at the data, and if it shows a continuation of slowing inflation a cooling labor market – Nonfarm Payrolls are coming on Friday – everything will change.
🔥 Bitcoin Losing The Short-Term Uptrend? BAD Reaction To FOMCWith the FOMC practically concluded, the market is reacting with a strong sell-off in both crypto and stocks. The FED has announced to keep their interest rate stable for the 4th time in a row, as it wants to see a stronger reduction in inflation before cutting rates.
Higher rates for longer, the market doesn't like that.
As seen on the chart, BTC is trading in a decent uptrend for the last week. However, there's a risk that the FOMC will mark a top and that the bears will take over from here. Keep in mind, bears are still waiting patiently after the post-ETF sell-off.
If BTC breaks through the bottom support, we could quickly fall back towards 41k or even lower.