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GBP/USD is ready to make a false high before going down!The GBP/USD exchange rate fluctuates in a narrow channel just above 1.2700 on Monday. The rebound of the major pair is supported by a positive risk environment. However, the increasing tension in the Red Sea could increase demand for safe-haven assets and limit the upside potential of the pair. GBP/USD experienced a rebound in the second half of the previous week, erasing a large portion of its weekly losses. However, the short-term technical outlook for the pair has yet to show an accumulation of bullish momentum as it holds steady around 1.2700 in the European morning on Monday. The rally in the U.S. Dollar (USD) exerted bearish pressure on GBP/USD last week. The improved risk sentiment towards the end of the week, as reflected in the significant rally in Wall Street's main indexes, weakened the USD and paved the way for a decisive rebound in the pair. However, investors remain uncertain about the timing of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy shift ahead of key U.S. growth and inflation data this week. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis points rate cut in March has decreased from 70% earlier in the month to about 50%. U.S. stock index futures are trading positively in the European session. I expect a strong rally from the short but intense bullish channel that could take the price to the supply zone at 1.2750, bouncing off the downtrend trendline. Currently, the current session is relatively calm, with focus on the BOJ; we will see if they have the courage to raise rates and bring them above zero, I hope so. It requires a shock to the market and, principally, to the yen. Greetings and happy trading to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold is ready for a new rally towards $2055The price of gold struggles to capitalize on the recovery trend in place for over two days, after hitting a low of over a month, and faces renewed selling pressure at the beginning of Monday. Declining US bond yields, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical risks could limit further losses. Additional gains could occur if gold manages to stabilize above the $2,030 resistance, while a downward movement could gain momentum with a break below the psychological support of $2,000. In addition to the conflict in Gaza, tensions between Houthi rebels and the US military are rising in the key commercial shipping route of the Red Sea. Furthermore, Pakistan carried out military attacks in Iran on Thursday, following a similar attack by Iran in its territory. In this context, the precious metal has recovered significantly, but short-term prospects have not yet turned bullish as further upside seems limited by diminishing bets favoring an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Price growth is gradually declining, but recent data suggests that the economy is robust, particularly due to strong household spending. This adds pressure to inflation and makes it more likely that the Fed will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for a longer period. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the fourth consecutive time at the monetary policy meeting on January 31. On a daily chart, we can observe that the price is in a possible reversal zone and could gather liquidity in the highlighted box at the 2020 level. From there, a bullish impulse could start, reaching the 2055 level, another area that holds significant buyside liquidity. Greetings and happy trading to everyone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDJPY Will the BOJ raise the rates?The USD/JPY exchange rate finds support near 148.00 as bets in favor of a Federal Reserve (Fed) decision to cut interest rates are gradually diminishing. Weak inflation data could lead the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to postpone its plans to exit from accommodative monetary policy. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, traders see a 53% probability of a 25 basis points interest rate cut in March, lower than the 70% from the previous week. The U.S. Dollar Index shows a clear contraction in volatility due to the absence of significant economic indicators. 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are hovering near 4.13%. The argument for maintaining interest rates at restrictive levels will be supported by persistent price pressures, steady labor demand, and robust consumer spending. Meanwhile, producers at factory gates are struggling to raise prices for goods and services due to weak demand. Additionally, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December slowed to 3.7% compared to the previous reading of 3.6%. Inflation data excluding fresh foods also softened to 2.3%, in line with expectations, compared to the previous reading of 2.5%. I primarily anticipate two scenarios: in the first, the BoJ will raise rates, and the market is likely to decline to seek liquidity around the 134-144 level, where there is a significant concentration of demand and the 0.62% Fib. Level. In the second scenario, if the BoJ doesn't change rates, it is more likely that the market will rise to touch the upper side of the bullish channel. Greetings and a good start to the week to everyone.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
SP500 is directed to $4200 after the last high!January 19th Closing: The U.S. basket index concluded the day with a significant increase, recording a gain of 1.23% compared to previous values. The initial movements were lively, with the index opening at 4,796.3 points, surpassing the previous day's high. Throughout the day, it continued the positive trend, closing at 4,839.8, approaching the highest level reached during the entire session. Status and Trend Analysis: Currently, the short-term outlook for the Standard & Poor's 500 index highlights a clear growth, with a target set at 4,873.3, but I don't believe it. In case of a temporary correction, the immediate target is set at 4,772.7. However, the prospects indicate a further downturn of the curve, reaching the peak of 4200. The situation reflects an uncertain phase and the potential for further negative market developments.
CBOE:SPXShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD is directed towards 2060 while the Recession is coming!The price of gold has reached almost $2,030, benefiting from the stabilization of the US dollar. However, a downward correction is not entirely convincing as traders reduce bets on a Fed rate cut in March. The precious metal has experienced a strong recovery after finding support near $2,000, backed by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Nevertheless, the resistance of the 20-day EMA at $2,035 hinders the gold bulls. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has bounced back, but the future remains uncertain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including conflicts in Gaza and tensions between Houthi rebels and the United States, have driven gold higher. However, short-term prospects are not entirely bullish as bets for a Fed rate cut decline. Uncertainty about inflation in the United States persists, with conflicting data on price growth and a strong economy due to household spending. The Fed is expected to keep rates between 5.25% and 5.50% at the January 31 meeting, but traders will be attentive to any comments on managing expected rate cuts in 2024. Let's prepare for future gold rallies in anticipation of the turbulent storm that awaits the markets in the next 6 months. The market may not believe it yet, but the words of central bank speakers have been clear: no rate cut in the first quarter. Greetings and have a great weekend to everyone from Nicola.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD | No interest rate cut and towards 1.11The exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar remains consistently below 1.0900 on this Friday. A slight increase in the value of the US Dollar and yields on US Treasury bonds, in a context of general caution, is influencing the currency pair. Daily indicators are just beginning to highlight a negative direction, suggesting that the most likely path for the EUR/USD pair is downward, indicating that it's time to consider long positions. During the first European session on Friday, the EUR/USD exchange rate shows a subdued movement, remaining near the Wednesday low and extending for over a month, a region sensitive to the 0.62 Fib. The European Central Bank (ECB) is struggling to convey a clear message regarding the possibility of raising or lowering interest rates, which is preventing traders from taking directional positions on the common currency. Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, has avoided countering bets for rate cuts exceeding 150 basis points this year but has emphasized the need for caution in the face of rising inflation in the Eurozone, reaching 2.9% YoY in December. Recent more cautious statements from various Federal Reserve officials have tempered expectations of an imminent interest rate cut. Meanwhile, the reduced likelihood of a more aggressive easing by the Federal Reserve has pushed yields on US 10-year Treasury bonds to their highest in over five weeks, providing some support to the US Dollar. In this context, markets are still considering a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut in March. This, along with stable performance in stock markets, limits the rise of the safe-haven US Dollar and provides some support to the EUR/USD pair. In the daily chart, it is evident that the price has reached the 62% Fibonacci zone and is now in a phase of a modest rebound, with expectations of an upward movement towards 1.11. It will be interesting to observe the Monday morning session in London to evaluate any bullish impulses and identify entry opportunities in what could be the most significant rally of the year. I wish everyone greetings and a pleasant weekend, from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
Advanced Forex Trading Strategy M15The trading strategy under examination is tailored for the M15 timeframe in the forex market, focusing on identifying supply and demand zones to make well-informed trading decisions. Let's delve into the key steps to successfully implement this strategy. Step 1: M15 Chart Analysis Position yourself on an M15 timeframe chart to gain a more detailed view of the market. This shorter time frame allows for capturing swift movements and identifying potential trading opportunities. Step 2: Identification of Supply and Demand Zones Utilize technical analysis tools such as supports, resistances, and volume indicators to clearly pinpoint supply and demand zones. Demand areas represent points where price is expected to rise, while supply zones indicate potential downward reversal points. Step 3: Confirmation of Demand Zone Breakout Wait for the breakout of a demand zone, accompanied by a bounce. This confirms the strength of the movement and suggests a potential change in the price direction. Step 4: Waiting for Price Bounce Above the Broken Zone After the demand zone breakout, observe price behavior and wait for it to return above the same zone. This confirms the effectiveness of the breakout and suggests a potential entry opportunity. Step 5: Identification of Supply Zone Once the price has surpassed the demand zone, identify a possible supply zone. This is the level where price is expected to encounter resistance. Step 6: Market Entry and Goal Planning Enter the market when the price reaches the identified supply zone, aiming to capture the downward movement. Set the target corresponding to the minimum that led to the last uptrend, intending to capitalize on the potential downward movement. Conclusions: This advanced forex trading strategy on the M15 timeframe is based on analyzing supply and demand dynamics. Always remember to manage risk carefully and adapt the strategy to evolving market conditions.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD | Strong bearish momentum towards 1980On Wednesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) experienced a downward correction in response to statements by Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller, who cast doubts on a potential interest rate cut in the March meeting. The XAU/USD pair marked its second consecutive decline, indicating further declines in the daily chart. Despite falling below a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), the pair remains above the 100 and 200 SMAs, both in the $1,960 region. In the short term, technical signals show a significant decline without signs of a bearish exhaustion. On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD is below all moving averages, with the 200 SMA providing resistance around $2,037.25. Technical indicators suggest bearish pressure, supporting the possibility of a downside break below the $2,000 threshold. The price of gold is at its lowest since mid-December, while the U.S. dollar gains ground at the expense of declining global stocks. The XAU/USD pair approaches an intraday low of $2,003.28 as investors reduce bets on a potential Fed rate cut in March. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a cut is now 52%, down from the approximately 70% recorded a few weeks ago. Mixed U.S. data on Wednesday, with Retail Sales and Industrial Production both increasing in December, along with assertive Fed statements, reduce the likelihood of a rate cut in March. Bond yields are rising, with the 2-year Treasury offering 4.36%, and the 10-year yield at 4.10%, both at new multi-week highs. Meanwhile, Wall Street extends its Tuesday decline.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
4
GBPUSD | Bullish triangle with liquidity problemIn the Forex market, there is a consistent upward movement of the US dollar, impacting overall risks and causing the GBP/USD pair to trim its initial gains, descending towards 1.2700. However, the GBP/USD remains above the lower limit of the ascending regression channel, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) signals a bullish trend in the short term. Key levels include resistances at 1.2780, 1.2830, and 1.2860, and supports at 1.2750, 1.2710-1.2700, and 1.2670. Despite a brief dip below 1.2700, the GBP/USD closed positively above 1.2750 on Thursday. The improvement in risk sentiment supports the pair on Friday, as markets await PPI data from the USA. Thursday's CPI inflation data exceeded estimates, but markets do not rule out a Fed interest rate cut in March. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) reports a 0.3% monthly GDP growth in November, keeping the British Pound resilient. The UK's FTSE 100 is up by 0.8%, reflecting a positive mood in European markets. An increase in US PPI inflation is expected in December, but the impact on the USD will depend on its significance.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USOIL | How will geopolitical tensions influence the price?The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price stands at around $72.70 per barrel during Thursday's Asian session, highlighting an upward trend supported by optimism generated by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC's monthly report anticipates robust growth in oil demand for 2024 and 2025, forecasting an increase of 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025. From a geopolitical perspective, disruptions in the supply chain in the Red Sea are preventing a more significant decline in crude oil prices, with attacks by Houthi forces in the area. The United States responded with strikes against the Houthi, and tensions escalated when the Houthi rebels targeted a U.S. ship. Internally, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected increase in weekly crude oil stocks, while the market awaits the upcoming Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, expected to show a decrease of 0.313 million barrels compared to the previous reading of 1.338 million barrels.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURUSD | Best Trading Approach for the London SessionThe EUR/USD exchange rate remains around 1.0900, benefiting from demand in Thursday's Asian trading and the decline of the US dollar. The ECB, with a hawkish stance, opposes expectations of a rate cut, providing additional support. The pair may face downward challenges, with the key level of 1.0844 as the initial support, followed by 1.0723 and other previous lows. Conversely, surpassing the weekly high of 1.0998 could lead to a retest of the December 2023 peak at 1.1139. The technical outlook currently indicates potential short-term losses, with indicators such as a negative MACD and RSI rebounding from the oversold zone. On Wednesday, the EUR/USD recorded new multi-week lows before bouncing to 1.0870, influenced by robust US retail sales data, fueling expectations of a Fed rate cut. Monetary policy tensions also arise in the ECB, with Knot highlighting the discrepancy between market expectations and official forecasts, while Lagarde suggests a potential rate cut in the summer. The increase in bond yields, especially German bunds and US treasuries, has contributed to the strengthening of the dollar. Despite the absence of significant news in the euro area, disappointing results in Chinese fundamentals have added to an atmosphere of uncertainty about the global economic recovery.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Market Phases | Buy & Sell zone!Today, we delve into the crucial market phases, focusing on the dynamics of accumulation and distribution, along with the concepts of BOS (Breakout of Structure), Sweep, Range, and Liquidity. Understanding these phases is essential for developing an informed trading strategy and improving trading decisions. The market goes through various phases, such as accumulation and distribution, which play a key role in price formation. Accumulation represents a period when institutional traders accumulate a significant position, while distribution is associated with the sale of these positions. BOS (Breakout of Structure) is a pivotal event where the price surpasses a significant support or resistance level. Analyzing BOS can provide signals for reversal or trend continuation, indicating the end of one phase and the beginning of another. The concept of Sweep involves the rapid and aggressive buying or selling of a large quantity of assets at current market prices. This may indicate institutional interest and influence the future direction of the price. Range refers to a consolidated price interval where the market is temporarily "locked." During these phases, traders can seek breakout or breakdown signals to identify trading opportunities. Liquidity is crucial as it represents the availability of a large volume of trades at a specific price level. Understanding market phases and concepts like BOS, Sweep, Range, and Liquidity provides a solid foundation for chart analysis. Using this knowledge, informed decisions can be made to identify trading opportunities and manage risks more effectively.
Education
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBPUSD is ready for the Bullrun towards 1.281The GBP/USD is rebounding towards 1.2700, driven by surprisingly high inflation data in the UK, which diminishes expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts by the BoE. US retail sales data has bolstered the strength of the dollar, slightly exceeding expectations. The exchange rate remains above the lower limit of the ascending channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating a bullish bias. Resistance levels are at 1.2780, 1.2830, and 1.2860; supports are at 1.2750, 1.2710-1.2700, and 1.2670. The GBP/USD reversed its direction, closing above 1.2750 due to an improved risk sentiment. US Producer Price Index (PPI) data is awaited, following a 3.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December. The initial reaction supported the USD, but the market is not convinced that the Fed will avoid rate cuts in March. The UK's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 0.3% in November, maintaining the resilience of the Pound. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 is up by 0.8%. It is expected that US producer inflation will rise to 1.3% in December. The USD's reaction suggests that a significant increase in the PPI could influence a potential shift in monetary policy towards the end of the second quarter. Stay tuned for any updates. Regards, Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD | Towards 1.08 today?The EUR/USD exchange rate is recording losses below 1.0900, marking five-week lows at 1.0862 on Tuesday. Investors are monitoring the US dollar and assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook amid persistent geopolitical risks, with a particular focus on US retail sales data. If the EUR/USD continues to decline and surpasses the 2024 low at 1.0861, it could reach the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0847, followed by the lows of 2023. The 4-hour chart suggests further short-term losses, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating oversold conditions. Potential rebound attempts may encounter resistance at 1.0925 and 1.0998. The weakness of the euro has been influenced by the strengthening dollar, pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) to new 2024 highs beyond 103.00. Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, contrary to investor expectations, have contributed to the situation. Market participants anticipate rate cuts by both the ECB and the Fed in 2024. The probability of a Fed rate cut in March is now at 70%. The decline in the euro's value has been influenced by rising yields, with German bunds reaching yearly highs. The improvement in Economic Sentiment in Germany and the broader Eurozone has not supported the European currency. In the United States, the Empire State Manufacturing Index significantly weakened to -43.7 in January. Greetings and have a good trading day to everyone from Nicola.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAU/USD: Critical Zone – Should You Buy or Sell?The price of gold (XAU/USD) is undergoing a significant sell-off, failing to reclaim the weekly high above $2,060. Investors are reassessing the timing at which the Federal Reserve (Fed) might reduce interest rates. After the failure to regain the weekly high of $2,062, the price of gold has dropped to around $2,030. It is expected to remain uncertain until new signals emerge regarding a potential Fed interest rate reduction. The precious metal has wiped out gains made on Monday, dipping below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at approximately $2,039. Further declines may occur if the gold price fails to defend the January 3 low of $2,030, exposing it to psychological support at $2,000. Investors are reacting to the persistent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December and hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. Despite expectations of a rate cut in March, Fed policymakers are in no rush to adopt an accommodative stance on interest rates, considering employment stability and the low likelihood of a recession in the United States. Going forward, data on US retail sales, industrial production, and the Fed's Beige Book will provide new insights into interest rate prospects.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USDCAD is ready to grab the liquidity at the level 135.30The Canadian dollar strengthened following mixed inflation data in Canada, while weakness in U.S. manufacturing data exerted negative pressure on the dollar. The bullish trend in USD/CAD persists, with resistances at 1.3420 and 1.3350 potentially impeding selling. The Canadian dollar (CAD) gained against many currencies on Tuesday but lost ground against the U.S. dollar (USD), maintaining its position as the top-performing major currency. Despite Canada's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December mostly meeting expectations, the lack of price growth has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) in March. Currently, Canadian money markets see a 34% probability of a rate cut, down from 46% before the inflation release. Overall, the economic landscape is influenced by other factors, such as the annual growth of the Consumer Price Index at 3.4%, compared to the previous period's 3.1%. Annualized residential construction in Canada exceeded expectations, reaching 249.3 thousand for the year through December. Meanwhile, official statements from the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to diminish expectations of rate cuts. Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasizes that inflation should follow a gradual path toward 2%. Oil markets are still influenced by geopolitical factors, such as Houthi attacks on civilian cargo ships in the Red Sea.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2
USDJPY | Short after the bullrun with target 140!The recovery of the US dollar is accelerating as market sentiment fades. The Yen is on the defensive with the hope that the BoJ will keep its extremely accommodative policy unchanged. Markets are quiet today, with US markets closed for a bank holiday. The pair has recovered most of the ground lost on Friday, reaching intraday highs near 146.00. The dollar seems to have ignored the post-PPI weakness in the United States in a calm trading session, with US markets closed for Martin Luther King's birthday. With the Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting approaching, the weak Tokyo CPI index and wage data from last week have practically ruled out any monetary policy normalization in the January meeting. The highlight in the US calendar will be the release of retail sales on Wednesday. In Japan, all eyes are on the national CPI data expected on Thursday. Confirmation on M15 is expected tomorrow during London or New York to assess a possible short with a target at 140. Greetings and happy trading to all.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
22
EURUSD | Will today be the day of the dollar?The EUR/USD pair is descending towards 1.0900, with the US dollar rising for the fourth consecutive day, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite hawkish comments from the ECB, the euro is struggling to gain ground. If the EUR/USD breaks the 2024 low at 1.0892, it may test the 200-day SMA at 1.0847. Below this level, further declines could occur. On the other hand, a breakout to the upside could encounter resistance at 1.0998 and 1.1139. The 4-hour chart indicates a consolidative mood, with the MACD showing signs of recovery, but the RSI remaining flat below the 50 threshold, suggesting a ranging trade. The week starts with uncertainty, as the market reacts to reduced volatility and thin trading conditions following the holidays in the United States. Hawkish comments from the ECB contrast with the outlook for rate cuts. The debate between market participants and the ECB regarding the timing of interest rate reductions continues. High inflation and mixed economic data in Europe influence the outlook. In the United States, there is a 70% probability of a Fed interest rate cut in March. European economic data shows a contraction in German GDP in 2023 and a decline in industrial production. We will see if today will be a hawkish day, expecting a downside break with a retest of the highlighted area in white in case of a strong dollar. Alternatively, an upward push with a trendline break and subsequent retest. Greetings and have a good trading day.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Bullish Scenario with Target 1.11 Next WeekThe EUR/USD exchange rate rose above 1.0950 and erased its daily losses in the early American session on Friday. Data from the United States revealed that the monthly Core PPI remained unchanged in December for the third consecutive month, exerting pressure on the US Dollar (USD) and assisting the pair in moving higher. The pair held steady above 1.0950 on Friday morning as markets awaited producer inflation data from the US. Mixed inflation figures from the US increased market volatility on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% on a yearly basis in December, as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This reading followed the 3.1% increase recorded in November and exceeded the market expectation of 3.2%. The Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis, matching analysts' estimates. These data did not significantly impact the market's stance on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a 25 basis points rate reduction in March. My analysis anticipates a bearish start to the week towards 1.085 to establish a significant low, or rather a false low with a recovery towards Tuesday/Wednesday, and Thursday could potentially bring the price back towards 1.11 before a slight retracement on Friday. Wishing everyone a good Sunday. Greetings from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
BTC/USD pullback expected, now heading towards 200K!Analyzing the BTC/USD scenario reveals an expansion of the bearish phase with a test of support at 40,980. The initial resistance is at 45,465, but expectations suggest the possibility of an extension of the negative trend towards new lows at 39,485. From a daily volatility perspective, the cryptocurrency shows a value of 2.79%, with a weekly performance registering at -3.16%. The reasons behind Bitcoin's decline after the historic spot ETF approval are as follows: There was strong speculation leading up to the ETF approval; now that it's approved, there is less for people to speculate on. Many expected a surge to $55,000 after approval, and since that didn't happen, people are either taking profits or selling in disappointment. Bitcoin surged from $15,400 to $49,000 with FOMO elements related to the ETF, so a correction was naturally due. This could be a sell-the-news event for many who bought Bitcoin before it reached $20,000. Money is shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum. People are selling BTC and buying ETH because they anticipate an ETH spot ETF is coming, and since ETH hasn't surged much, they are moving to an undervalued asset. Positive aspects that many people overlook: The Bitcoin ETF generated a total volume of $4.3 billion, a historic result for any ETF in history. Now that Bitcoin is available to all Wall Street traders, trillions will flow into the market over time. The Bitcoin ETF instills trust in cryptocurrencies. Personal opinion: The Bitcoin ETF will become increasingly popular on Wall Street, and we will see companies allocating billions to Bitcoin over time, easily propelling BTC to $100,000 - $200,000+. Following the SEC approval of the first Bitcoin ETFs, we observed a temporary dip in BTC's value, dropping to around $48,000 before recovering a significant portion of the weekly movement and slipping below the previous week's highs. Currently, the overall cryptocurrency market reflects a negative trend, with Ethereum standing out positively compared to other cryptocurrencies. Thanks to ETH's strength and BTC's weakness, the ETHBTC pair exhibits a +17% performance this week, approaching the technical price level of 0.06. BTC (49 weeks on the rise) TRX (7 weeks in decline) ETH (49 weeks in decline) DOGE (49 weeks in decline)
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
GBPUSD | Big pullback before the significant rally in 2024The analysis of GBP/USD reveals a dynamic interplay of factors influencing the currency pair. The British Pound (GBP) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD), recovering from a decline to 1.2700 and surpassing 1.2750. This recovery is linked to challenges the USD faces in generating demand during the American session, partly influenced by softer-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for December. Technically, GBP/USD maintains a bullish stance, staying above the lower limit of an ascending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, indicating positive momentum. Key resistance levels are at 1.2780, 1.2830, and 1.2860, while supports lie at 1.2750, 1.2710-1.2700, and 1.2670. The positive shift in market sentiment, along with UK GDP growth in November, supports GBP/USD. US inflation data, with a 3.4% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, initially boosted the USD, but skepticism remains about the Fed refraining from a rate cut in March. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut. The broader economic context, including inflation trends, central bank expectations, and global market sentiment, will continue to shape the GBP/USD exchange rate. This was a brief overview of the GBP/USD landscape; I'll now turn to the chart for my personal expectations and explanation. Greetings and a good weekend to everyone from Nicola.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD | Short opportunities and Geopolitical tensionThe price of gold gained bullish momentum, reaching a new weekly high above $2,050. Escalating geopolitical tensions and declining US Treasury bond yields, driven by soft producer inflation data from the United States, fueled the XAU/USD rally ahead of the weekend. Continued buying would negate any short-term negative outlook and set the stage for a move towards the round figure of $2,100. On the downside, the bearish trajectory could extend further towards the December low around the $1,973 area before eventually reaching the confluence area of $1,965-1,963, which includes the 100- and 200-day SMAs. Gold price (XAU/USD) extended its recovery on Friday from a one-month low around the $2,013 area, representing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). It gained positive traction for the second consecutive day on Friday, steadily rising during the early European session. The precious metal benefited from renewed safe-haven demand amid the risk of further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, it remains below the $2,040-2,042 threshold, urging caution for bullish traders due to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut path. Slightly higher consumer inflation figures released from the United States on Thursday, coupled with hawkish remarks from Fed officials, led investors to reduce their bets on a more aggressive policy easing. This provided tailwinds for US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD), potentially limiting gains for the non-yielding gold price. Markets are still pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate cut in March, offering support for the non-yielding yellow metal as traders await the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and a speech from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari for short-term impetus.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
8
Reacceleration of inflation presents a trouble for the FEDYesterday, the market became slightly spooked by the release of higher-than-expected inflation numbers in the United States. The immediate reaction of the SPX to the news was negative, with the index erasing its early gains; the same price action could be observed in the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nevertheless, market indices recovered much of their losses by the close and have been trending sideways. The reacceleration of inflation in the United States represents a hurdle for the FED in its quest to tame inflation (likely causing it not to cut interest rates at the next meeting at the end of January 2024 or in March 2024). In addition to that, it could shatter the investors’ expectations of premature rate cuts if no significant improvement is seen in the next print. In turn, that could negatively affect the stock market down the road. In regard to technicals, the resistance at $4,800 continues to play a crucial role; if the price manages to break above it and close there (ideally for at least two consecutive days), it will be very positive. The resumption of growth in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart will also bolster a bullish case. However, the flattening of these indicators and a failure of the RSI to break above 70 points will be slightly concerning. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the 5-minute graph of the SPX. The yellow arrow indicates the moment when inflation numbers were released in the United States. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
8