Get started

Fed

GBP/JPY: Finally, the Rate Cut Has Arrived!GBP/JPY is facing significant bearish pressure, with the price dropping to around 188.40 in the recent sessions on February 6, 2025. The main catalyst behind this trend has been the Bank of England’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision has intensified the weakness of the British pound, prompting investors to liquidate long positions and fueling the strong decline in the pair. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months, which keeps sentiment firmly bearish. From a technical perspective, the breakdown below the key level of 190.50 has confirmed the loss of bullish momentum. Even the recovery attempts seen in previous days, such as the rebound to 193.00 on February 4, have proven weak and incapable of reversing the primary trend. The current phase of weakness could lead the pair to test further lower support levels, with 187.50 and then 185.80 as possible bearish targets unless there is a positive reaction from the pound. On the macroeconomic front, the divergence between the BoE and the Bank of Japan could theoretically provide some medium-term support for the pound, given that the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the market currently seems more focused on the deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and the increasing likelihood that the BoE will continue cutting rates, enhancing the yen’s appeal as a defensive asset. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, we could see an acceleration of the bearish trend in GBP/JPY, especially if the global market enters a more pronounced risk-averse phase.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAUUSD - Where will gold go?!US President Donald Trump has raised serious concerns among global economies and financial markets by threatening to impose punitive tariffs on the country’s largest trading partners. So far, he has imposed a 10% tariff on goods imported from China, delayed the implementation of 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and indicated that the European Union will be the next target of his trade policies. However, beyond the political hype, tariffs have important practical and economic effects. Tariffs are actually a type of tax on imported goods that, like other taxes, are a source of revenue for the government. Many countries impose these taxes to protect domestic production, as tariffs increase the price of foreign goods and therefore strengthen the competitiveness of domestic products. Trump, however, is using this tool not only to support domestic industries but also as leverage in his foreign policy. One example of this policy is his decision to postpone the imposition of new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which was made after the two countries agreed to implement stricter measures to control immigration and combat drug trafficking at their common borders. Tariffs were once a major source of revenue for the US government, but their share has declined significantly over the past century. According to an analysis of official data by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, as of last year, tariffs accounted for less than 3 percent of total federal revenue. If the tariffs were to be permanently imposed, as Trump initially proposed, the total additional costs to American importers over the next decade could reach $1.1 trillion. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates that the policy could lead to tax increases of up to $110 billion by 2025 alone. The think tank also estimates that tariffs on China, which began under Trump and expanded under Biden, currently generate $77 billion in revenue for the U.S. government annually. Economic studies show that ultimately, American consumers and businesses will bear the brunt of these tariffs. While some foreign producers may lower their prices or accept some of the costs from American importers, in many cases, companies will raise the prices of their goods to compensate for the additional costs, and those costs will be passed on to consumers. A look at recent U.S.-China trade relations provides a clear example of the impact of tariffs. During Trump’s first term, he imposed a series of tariffs on Chinese imports, including steel, aluminum, and industrial engines. The policy has reduced China’s share of U.S. imports from about 20 percent in 2018 to 14 percent by 2023. Meanwhile, official demand for gold continues to play a major role in the precious metal’s market, keeping prices near record levels. It’s not just emerging market central banks buying gold to protect their currencies. Krishan Gopal, senior analyst for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at the World Gold Council, pointed to data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a social media post that showed Taiwan’s central bank increased its gold reserves in October. According to the report, the official gold reserves of the Central Bank of Taiwan reached 424 tons three months ago. Despite the recent volatility in the gold market, analysts believe that the continued purchases of central banks will continue to be the main factor in maintaining the bullish trend of the precious metal. Joy Yang, global head of index product management at MarketVector Indexes, said that with the increasing geopolitical uncertainties caused by Trump’s economic policies and the slogan of “America First”, central banks are looking for more neutral assets to preserve the value of their reserves. According to him, these policies of the Trump administration have made gold a more attractive option for countries that want to protect themselves against economic risks and reduce their dependence on the US dollar and Treasuries. Katie Kriski, commodity market strategist at Invesco, also believes that the high demand for gold by central banks continues to create significant value for retail investors. He also predicted that this trend will not stop in the near future, citing the People’s Bank of China as one of the most prominent examples of this behavior in the global gold market. Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone for gold will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Will the dollar return to the bullish trajectory?!US President Donald Trump has once again shown his mastery of political bluffs. He pushed negotiations with Mexico and Canada to the brink of crisis, there were numerous reports of increased tariffs and tougher measures, but in the end, he canceled everything. Instead, only a few symbolic measures were announced at the border, many of which had been discussed before. Now it seems that this scenario will be repeated again in the next 30 days. That this was a bluff was predictable from the beginning, but it was a challenging experience for analysts and markets. If you didn’t have a moment of doubt during this process, you probably weren’t paying close enough attention. But that’s the Trump strategy: in the market you have to have a strong belief that you are on the right track. When everyone is panicking, you have to stay calm and watch the process from the outside. The trade war has caused significant volatility in financial markets, and it’s not easy to make a profit in this environment. One of the main challenges was the timing. Last week, Trump announced that Mexico and Canada could do nothing to prevent the tariffs. But just days later, the two countries made almost no concessions and no tariffs were imposed. The signs of a shift in direction were already clear. The most important sign was the comments of Kevin Hassett, the White House economic adviser, who indicated that the talks were changing direction. He shifted the focus of the discussion to the problem of drugs and fentanyl, a shift that indicated that the Trump administration was looking to declare a victory in the negotiations. When even CNBC analysts noticed the change, it was clear that the direction of the talks had changed. “It doesn’t seem like you believe that these tariffs are going to happen, or that they will last very long,” one of the network’s hosts told Hassett in an interview. How did the financial markets react? The currency market was one of the best indicators to understand developments. While the stock markets were volatile, the trends in Forex were more transparent and occurred without random disturbances. The focus of attention on financial markets today is the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, starting the new year. The decision will not come as a surprise, as OIS market data shows that traders have priced in a cut with a probability of around 92%. The cut will take the Bank of England’s policy rate to 4.50%, while policymakers continue to gradually reduce interest rates. However, the most important part of the decision will be the central bank’s statement and tone. The results of the December vote showed that there is a division among BoE policymakers. Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor had voted for a 25 basis point cut earlier in the same meeting. The Bank of England continues to insist that “a gradual approach to removing monetary policy constraints remains appropriate.” This will remain the watchword for monetary policy today, even if interest rate cuts are implemented. But economic uncertainties remain. The December inflation report showed that price pressures have eased, but the trend is not sustainable. Analysts have made a few key points: • The decline in inflation has been driven largely by falling service prices. • But a closer look suggests that the decline may be temporary. Rob Wood of Pantheon Economics explained that the ONS’s calculation method has led to a drop in airline prices on December 10. The drop came before the Christmas break, when prices would normally have been expected to rise. Overall, the disinflationary trend remains unsustainable. With core inflation still above 3%, the Bank of England remains committed to keeping price pressures in check. Future Forecast: • The Bank of England will cut interest rates today as expected, but will emphasize that future actions will depend on economic data. • Traders do not expect interest rate cuts in February and March, but have forecast the next cut for May 2025. • In total, interest rate cuts for 2025 are estimated at around 83 basis points. Since the Bank of England is unlikely to make any clear commitments on the future course of its policies, the impact of this decision on the value of the pound and government bonds (Gilts) is expected to be limited. The GBPUSD currency pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction, the pair can be bought within the specified demand zone.
Long
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - How far will silver go?!On the 4-hour timeframe, silver is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its ascending channel. If the correction continues, we can see a demand range. We can buy in that range with an appropriate reward to risk. Gold demand in China is showing signs of a strong rebound, even as the physical flow of gold from the UK to the United States continues. Meanwhile, analysts at Heraeus Precious Metals have indicated that there is evidence suggesting that the growing demand for silver in the solar industry may have peaked. Last week, both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank acted in line with market expectations. The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, while the European Central Bank implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut. Regarding silver, Heraeus analysts questioned whether China could sustain its rapid growth in the solar energy sector. They reported, “The total installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) panels in China reached 886.66 gigawatts in 2024, marking a 46% increase compared to the previous year. This 277-gigawatt expansion exceeded industry forecasts and surpassed China’s own 2024 capacity projections by 17 gigawatts. However, while this growth is remarkable, it falls short of the record 54% increase seen in 2023, following a 28% rise in 2021. This trend suggests that China may be approaching its peak photovoltaic capacity growth.” The analysts also noted that, over the past two years, rapid solar energy growth has been driven by unprecedentedly low photovoltaic module prices, largely due to intense competition among manufacturers. They explained, “However, in 2025, polysilicon producers (GCL and Tongwei) have agreed to limit their production, while solar module manufacturers (Jinko, JA Solar, and Canadian Solar) have reached a minimum pricing consensus to restore profitability. This could drive up the price of solar modules, leading to higher capital costs for projects.” They added, “Projections indicate that 232 million ounces of silver were used in 495 gigawatts of photovoltaic applications in 2024. If installation rates remain steady year-over-year, solar demand for silver could reach a record 270 million ounces in 2025, an increase of 39 million ounces.” Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bassett announced that the Trump administration is focusing on reducing the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rather than the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate cuts. Over the weekend, Trump remarked that the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision not to cut interest rates was a “good” move, indicating his emphasis on 10-year yields. This policy could contribute to financial stability and help control inflation. However, some analysts have warned that Trump’s measures, along with spending cuts by his ally Elon Musk, may not have a significant impact, as a large portion of U.S. government expenditures remains allocated to healthcare, social security, and defense. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, economists at Morgan Stanley no longer anticipate that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in March. They now predict only one rate cut in 2025, expected in June. As Morgan Stanley stated, “The implementation of tariffs earlier than expected is likely to halt the downward inflation trend at a higher level, making any short-term rate cuts impossible.”
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
SPX500 programmed to have a correction.My analysis is straightforward. On the weekly timeframe, there is a significant bearish divergence on the RSI, indicating that the market is moving in the wrong direction relative to fundamentals. This divergence has been present for six months, so one might assume there’s no reason for a change. The market is in a bubble, but it needs a catalyst to wake up. While I appreciate some of Trump's policies, certain aspects of his approach could crash the market. - Imposing tariffs on most imports might seem like a good idea. Trump aims to make the U.S. a producer of goods rather than an importer. However, the U.S. has lost much of its manufacturing base, engineering expertise, and know-how. China now dominates these areas, making this policy difficult to implement within the short span of a four-year term. Instead, tariffs on all imports would raise prices, worsening inflation. The market's prolonged rise has been largely driven by the Fed's efforts to control inflation. Higher inflation would force the Fed to raise interest rates, spooking the market. Another risk is a potential disagreement between the government and the Fed over policies, which would create uncertainty. I believe that increased inflation, higher prices, and tariffs will ultimately undermine trust in U.S. monetary policies, leading to the opposite of the intended effect. The USD could weaken, and more countries may move away from dollarization (regardless of tariffs, as Trump cannot dictate other nations' monetary policies). The market would likely react negatively, and the bearish divergence would play out, potentially causing a crash lasting at least a year, similar to what happened in January 2022. I hope I’m wrong, but this scenario has a high probability of occurring.
SP:SPXShort
by CryptoNikkoid
3
EUR/USD: Between Rebound Hopes and Tariff TensionsThe EUR/USD pair experienced a strong rebound on Tuesday, rising by 0.8% and breaking a six-day losing streak, although it failed to reclaim the 1.0400 threshold. Despite this recovery, bullish momentum remains fragile as the euro is heavily influenced by broader market flows and the anticipation of upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The pair found initial support at the weekly low of 1.0209 on February 3, with a potential decline towards the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 if this support fails. A break below this level could pave the way for a test of the psychological parity threshold. On the upside, resistance is identified at 1.0532, the year’s high recorded on January 27. The pair’s recovery was driven by a weakening US dollar, as the Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 108.00 support, influenced by market reactions to President Donald Trump’s plans to delay a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods while maintaining a 10% levy on Chinese imports. Although the US dollar has weakened, the tariff issue is expected to strengthen its position in the long term, potentially supporting a bullish outlook for the currency. Central banks also play a crucial role: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling a cautious approach amid strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and low unemployment. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, hinting at possible further easing while expressing optimism about controlling eurozone inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-driven approach, ruling out the possibility of aggressive rate cuts. Trade tensions, particularly those linked to US tariffs, could further complicate the euro’s outlook. Prolonged tariffs could fuel inflation in the United States, prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, which could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair toward parity. Looking ahead, the euro faces challenges from the resilience of the US dollar, divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed, and structural issues within the eurozone, such as Germany’s economic slowdown. While short-term rallies are possible, the overall outlook for the euro remains uncertain, with persistent risks related to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies likely to shape the pair’s trajectory.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/AUD: The Impact of Tariffs on MarketsThe GBP/AUD exchange rate showed mixed movements from January 27 to February 4, 2025, closing at 1.99489 on February 4 with a decline of approximately 0.42% compared to the previous session. Despite a modest rally on February 3, with an increase of about 0.58%, the subsequent downturn signals prevailing bearish sentiment. This fluctuation highlights a cautious market environment influenced by several key factors. A technical report dated February 4 highlighted a symmetrical triangle pattern where, despite a bullish crossover of the 9-period moving average above the 14-period moving average, the price remains confined between a resistance level around 2.0050. This range-bound behavior reflects traders' hesitation as they await a decisive breakout to confirm the next directional trend. Additionally, geopolitical factors have significantly impacted volatility. The announcement of new U.S. tariffs by President Trump temporarily pushed GBP/AUD above 2.012. However, this rally was short-lived, with the rate retracting shortly after due to market adjustments, demonstrating the pair's sensitivity to external economic policies. Furthermore, risk-off flows have contributed to intermittent strength in GBP/AUD, but the overall sentiment remains mixed. Technical indicators and the persistent narrow trading range indicate ongoing uncertainty, applying continuous downward pressure on the pair.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
NAS100 - Tariff War, the scourge of the stock market?!The index is below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the indicated trend line, we can look for the next short-term buying positions in Nasdaq. The Nasdaq being in the demand range will provide us with the conditions to buy it with a reasonable reward to risk. While the world remained focused on the first week of the Trump administration, a relatively unknown Chinese startup shocked the tech industry last week by releasing an open-source AI tool. This tool, developed with significantly fewer resources and at a much lower cost than its American counterparts like ChatGPT, has managed to match and, in some cases, surpass its U.S. rivals. The startup, DeepSeek, has gone even further by making its tool freely available for download. Only those who wish to use the company’s API, which allows seamless integration with existing applications, are required to pay a fee—amounting to just 3% of the cost of competing tools. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Saturday imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China. He pressured these nations to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants from Mexico and Canada into the U.S.—a move that could reignite inflation and hinder global economic growth. In response, Mexico and Canada, two of the U.S.‘s largest trading partners, immediately vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs. China, on the other hand, announced that it would challenge Trump’s decision at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and take additional “countermeasures.” Under three executive orders, starting Tuesday, imports from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff, while Chinese goods will face a 10% levy. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded by stating that Canada will impose a 25% tariff on $30 billion worth of U.S. goods starting Tuesday, followed by an additional $125 billion in tariffs three weeks later. Trudeau warned that these tariffs would increase grocery and fuel costs for American consumers, potentially shut down auto assembly plants, and restrict the supply of nickel, potash, uranium, steel, and aluminum. He also urged Canadians to avoid traveling to the U.S. and boycott American products. As investors looked for clarity from this week’s Federal Reserve meeting, Wall Street was left uncertain, now anticipating that the Fed will likely keep rates unchanged until late in the year.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold hits new ATH!Gold is trading above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. A correction towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. Donald Trump has announced his intention to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico due to the fentanyl issue, emphasizing that these tariffs will take effect starting Saturday. He also stated that China will eventually have to pay tariffs as well, and that the U.S. is already implementing trade restrictions against Beijing. Trump further asserted that the era of passively watching BRICS nations attempt to distance themselves from the U.S. dollar is over. He declared that these countries must commit to neither creating a new BRICS currency nor supporting any alternative to the powerful U.S. dollar. Otherwise, they will face 100% tariffs and lose access to the thriving American economy. He insisted that BRICS has no chance of replacing the U.S. dollar in global trade, and any country attempting to do so will face severe economic consequences. (Translation continues…) Continuation of the English Translation: Trump’s repeated tariff threats have raised concerns among American consumers and introduced economic risks for the United States. Even the mere discussion of such tariffs can have significant economic effects by influencing consumer behavior. Evidence suggests that many Americans are seriously worried about the potential consequences of these policies. According to a survey conducted by economists from the University of Texas, the University of California, and the University of Chicago, Americans expect substantial tariffs to be imposed on all major trade partners—50% on Chinese imports and 35% on imports from Canada and Europe. Contrary to Trump’s claims, most citizens believe these tariffs will directly impact them by driving up prices. When asked about a hypothetical 20% tariff, half of the respondents stated that the majority of the costs would be passed directly to consumers. Political differences are also evident in the perception of these tariffs. Democrats and Republicans disagree on the extent to which consumers will bear the costs. Democrats estimate that 68% of the tariff burden will fall on consumers, whereas Republicans believe it will be around 41%. Regardless of political stance, the financial strain from these tariffs is expected to be significant, particularly for consumers already weary of inflation. Both the public and economists recognize that tariffs on imports can also raise prices for domestically produced goods. The economic impact of tariffs was clearly demonstrated during Trump’s first term. A study found that the tariffs imposed in 2018 on washing machines from South Korea and China led to a nearly equivalent price increase for washing machines in the U.S.—and even drove up the price of dryers as well. Even if these new tariffs are not implemented, their mere threat can lead to price hikes. Many consumers, anticipating higher costs, are choosing to make purchases in advance. In a survey, 43% of respondents stated that they would buy products before the tariffs take effect to avoid potential price increases.Another survey in January found that 20% of people believed that now was the right time to buy durable goods because prices were likely to rise. Businesses are responding in a similar fashion. Many companies are stockpiling inventory ahead of potential tariff hikes or shifting their supply chains to countries that would not be affected. This behavior has contributed to a surge in exports from China to the U.S., with December marking the second-highest export level on record—at least partly driven by efforts to preempt new tariffs. These strategies, however, come with additional costs, much of which will likely be passed on to consumers. The COVID-19 pandemic provided a clear example of how supply chain disruptions can lead to widespread cost increases. For instance, higher import costs for auto parts eventually resulted in more expensive vehicle repairs and insurance premiums. Stimulating inflation under current economic conditions—even temporarily—would be costly. The Federal Reserve has paused further interest rate cuts, waiting for clearer signs of sustained inflation reduction. Rising prices for key goods, particularly automobiles, halted progress in lowering inflation in the fourth quarter of last year. Additional inflationary pressures caused by tariff expectations could delay the Fed’s next rate cut and keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The uncertainty surrounding future tariffs reinforces the Fed’s cautious stance. Inflation is not the only concern stemming from tariff threats. A third of survey respondents indicated that the likelihood of widespread tariffs would lead them to cut spending and increase savings. The greater the uncertainty surrounding trade policy, the stronger the incentive for precautionary savings. American consumers have been the driving force behind the nation’s economic recovery. However, the recent wave of tariff threats has created deep concerns, potentially putting the U.S. economy—widely regarded as one of the strongest in the world—at risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF: Should we look for a weaker franc?!The USDCHF pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, we will be provided with further buying positions in this pair with an appropriate risk-reward ratio. The continuation of the pair’s rise and its placement in the supply zone will provide us with a selling position. The President of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Schlegel, stated in an interview with SRF that while the SNB does not favor negative interest rates, it also cannot completely rule them out. He emphasized that implementing such a policy would not be a decision taken lightly. In recent weeks, Schlegel has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of negative interest rates, particularly in light of Switzerland’s inflation dropping to 0.6% in December, which has raised concerns about deflation. However, he noted that temporary periods of negative inflation would not necessarily pose a problem.Additionally, Schlegel reaffirmed the SNB’s commitment to maintaining price stability over the medium term, within the 0–2% target range. Currently, market expectations indicate a 60% probability that the SNB will cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% in March, with a 25% chance of rates reaching 0% by June. In the United States, GDP data for Q4 2024 showed that the economy grew at an annualized 2.3% rate—below market expectations (2.6%) and lower than the 3.1% growth seen in the previous quarter. However, a 2.5% year-over-year growth rate remains substantial and aligns with the Federal Reserve’s outlook. A key takeaway from the recent GDP report is the strong performance of U.S. consumers, who exceeded expectations with 4.2% growth in spending. According to CIBC, American consumers have shown a notable preference for durable goods, with spending in this category surging 12.1% last quarter—a figure significantly above pre-pandemic trends. However, CIBC warns that other sectors of the economy are not as strong. Business investments remain weak, and government spending has played a crucial role in supporting economic growth. Additionally, a 0.9% decline in inventories, driven by weather disruptions and labor strikes, has negatively impacted GDP growth. These factors are expected to persist into Q1 2025, as businesses stockpile inventory ahead of potential tariffs. However, when stripping out inventory effects, final sales to domestic buyers remain strong at 3.1%, which is nearly in line with the two-year average. CIBC also believes that consumer spending will remain resilient, supported by rising asset-related incomes and millennials’ enthusiasm for technology and discretionary spending. That said, trade tariffs could ultimately shave 1% off GDP growth, with their effects likely to linger for some time. Overall, CIBC concludes that while GDP growth may slow slightly under a Trump presidency, the decline is unlikely to cause major concern for the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains more focused on rising prices, their impact on inflation expectations, and wage pressures, as the economy remains strong but inflation is not yet fully controlled. Today’s data reinforces the Fed’s data-dependent approach. Underlying growth is still around 3%, and there is no indication that consumers are scaling back spending, suggesting that they can absorb moderate price increases. As a result, Nomura now expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through the end of 2025, revising its earlier forecast, which had anticipated at least one rate cut in 2025.
Long
by Ali_PSND
GBPUSD - Will the pound return to the bullish trajectory?!The GBPUSD pair is located between the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction, the pair can be bought within the specified demand zone. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated that the government has clearly received the message regarding deregulation. He emphasized that simplifying regulations and removing certain restrictions could have a positive impact on economic activities and businesses. Starmer also highlighted the transformative potential of artificial intelligence in the economy. He added that the UK’s economic outlook is improving and that the government’s top priority is “growth, growth, and growth.” Additionally, he pointed to the significant trade partnership between the UK and the United States, stressing that this economic collaboration could play a key role in the country’s future growth. Meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities believe that the Federal Reserve will refrain from cutting interest rates in the first half of this year. This decision is attributed to the persistence of core inflation and the resilience of the U.S. economy in the first quarter, which keeps policymakers cautious. Furthermore, the potential economic impact of new tariffs under a Trump administration in the second quarter reinforces this outlook. Although the Federal Reserve officially bases its decisions on economic data, TD Securities argues that political influences are becoming increasingly significant in shaping monetary policy. According to TD, Trump’s role in U.S. monetary policy is growing. As a result, the institution maintains a bullish outlook on the U.S. dollar and sees any rate cuts as buying opportunities, particularly against the euro, Canadian dollar, and British pound. At the same time, analysts at Goldman Sachs believe that the Federal Reserve will wait for further progress in reducing inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. However, they still expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement two 0.25% rate cuts later this year, in June and December, with an additional cut projected for 2026. Additionally, economists at Citi anticipate that the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the 12-month PCE inflation rate—will decline in the coming months as the effects of the sharp price increases from early 2024 begin to fade. They also note that both the six-month and three-month core PCE inflation rates are on a downward trajectory and are expected to fall below 2.5%.
Long
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold after the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 1-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for buying opportunities after a price correction. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with the next buying opportunity with a good risk-reward ratio. During its meeting last night, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.5% range, signaling that it has no immediate plans to lower them. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, emphasized that the U.S. economy continues to experience strong growth, with a resilient labor market. According to him, current interest rates are no longer as restrictive to economic activity as they once were. He stated that the central bank prefers to see more concrete evidence of sustained inflation reduction before making any adjustments, while also assessing the economic impact of Donald Trump’s policies in areas such as tariffs, immigration, and taxation. In its statement, the Federal Reserve acknowledged that inflation remains “somewhat high,” but it omitted previous references to progress toward the 2% target. Powell clarified that this change does not signal a shift in policy but rather reflects the need for greater confidence in the persistence of inflation’s downward trend. The Fed Chair also stressed that the central bank cannot accurately predict the impact of Trump’s new policies before they are implemented. He noted that potential tariffs and immigration changes could have conflicting effects: they might contribute to inflation by raising costs, while also acting as a deflationary force by improving productivity. Powell made it clear that a rate cut in March 2025 is “unlikely,” and future decisions will depend entirely on economic data, particularly inflation and employment indicators. If Trump’s trade policies or labor shortages caused by the expulsion of migrants unexpectedly drive inflation higher, the Federal Reserve may not only delay rate cuts but could even consider raising rates instead. In response to these remarks, Trump criticized Powell, accusing him of failing to control inflation. The U.S. President stated on Truth Social that his administration would curb inflation by ramping up domestic energy production, reducing regulations, balancing international trade, and revitalizing American manufacturing. Meanwhile, Powell told reporters that he has not been in contact with Trump recently and would not respond to criticisms from the White House. Trump also accused the Federal Reserve of focusing on issues like climate change, diversity, equity, and gender ideology instead of prioritizing economic matters. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates within a narrow range throughout 2025 unless there is a significant shift in inflation. He highlighted that rising costs in the services and food sectors remain key economic challenges, which will likely limit any major policy changes in the near term.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
USDCAD - Where will the Canadian dollar go?!The USDCAD pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in a range. As long as the pair is in this range, the best thing to do is to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. A break of this range to the top or bottom will allow us to continue its rise and fall. The Bank of Canada has announced its decision to lower the policy interest rate to 3% after six consecutive reductions. Additionally, it confirmed the end of quantitative tightening (QT) and the gradual resumption of asset purchases starting in March. These measures reflect the central bank’s effort to stabilize the economy and support sustainable growth. The Bank of Canada emphasized three key points: • Inflation has approached the 2% target. After a period of high volatility, inflation expectations have moderated, and price pressures—except in the housing sector—have eased. • Lower interest rates have increased household spending power and gradually boosted economic activity, particularly in the housing sector and durable goods purchases such as automobiles. • New U.S. trade policies remain a significant risk to Canada’s economy. Any escalation in trade tensions could negatively impact economic growth. One of the first sectors to benefit from the rate cut is the housing market.Lower borrowing costs are expected to attract new buyers; however, the central bank anticipates a more balanced increase in housing prices over time. The recent slowdown in construction activity and declining rental prices indicate that investment appeal in this sector has somewhat diminished. For investors and entrepreneurs, the lower interest rates present an opportunity to secure cheaper financing and expand their businesses. Sectors such as startups, technology, and export-driven manufacturing are expected to gain the most from this policy. With inflation stabilizing around 2% and the economy recovering, the Bank of Canada sees no immediate need for further rate cuts. However, potential economic disruptions from U.S. trade policies could alter this outlook. Reports suggest that if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian imports, the Canadian government plans to implement financial aid measures similar to those used during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these programs require parliamentary approval, and given that the Liberal government lacks a parliamentary majority, there is no guarantee they will pass. All opposition parties have expressed their intent to oust the current government, meaning any economic stimulus package would require support from the New Democratic Party (NDP). The NDP has backed the Liberal government over the past three years. The Canadian Parliament is currently adjourned until March 24, allowing the Liberal Party to select a new leader to replace Justin Trudeau, with Mark Carney as a likely successor. However, an early leadership decision may occur before the scheduled date. Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, stated that household debt is not a sustainable driver of consumption growth. He expressed greater concern about declining business investment due to tariff threats, arguing that such policies could have a more significant impact on the Canadian dollar than interest rate differentials. He also reaffirmed that the Bank of Canada believes inflation has been successfully contained. The central bank aims to ensure that any CPI increases resulting from tariffs remain temporary and that the consequences of trade policies are managed to minimize sudden economic disruptions.
by Ali_PSND
Copper - Markets are waiting for new moves to start?!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. An upward correction of copper will provide us with a good risk-reward selling position. If the downtrend continues, we can buy copper in the next demand zone. The Monthly Metals Index (MMI) for copper remained largely range-bound, experiencing a slight decline of 0.65% from December to January. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to react to the new U.S. administration and potential shifts in trade policies. Ahead of President Trump’s inauguration, copper prices on the Comex exchange began breaking out of their previous range. By mid-January, copper prices had reached their highest levels since early November. This movement was likely driven by traders anticipating the impact of potential tariffs, some of which could affect the copper market. In contrast, prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw only modest gains, creating a temporary price divergence between the two exchanges. Typically, Comex and LME copper prices move in tandem, making any significant deviations between them noteworthy. Since 2019, the two markets have shown a correlation of 99.76%, with Comex prices averaging a $19 per ton premium over LME prices. However, by January 14, this premium had widened to $402 per ton. It remains uncertain whether this premium will persist in the coming years or revert to historical levels, as seen in previous instances. Historically, such price divergences have been temporary. One notable example was a short squeeze on Comex in late May, which marked the end of the Q2 2024 rally in base metals. During this period, the price gap between LME and Comex surged to $688 per ton, with Comex copper prices reaching a record high of $11,257 per ton. However, this spread quickly narrowed due to shifts in trade flows toward the U.S. market. Although Comex copper contracts attract similar market participation as LME, lower inventory levels make them less liquid. Consequently, when stockpiles decrease, Comex prices become particularly susceptible to sudden surges. Another factor contributing to price divergence was the October port strike, which led to a significant increase in Comex prices. Before the three-day strike began, Comex copper prices had already risen sharply, pushing the spread to $292 per ton until mediators brokered a resolution. Market volatility remains a key risk for copper prices as traders await more details on which products and countries will be affected by new trade barriers. This uncertainty could either drive further price increases or trigger sharp declines if reality fails to align with market expectations. Some of the tariffs proposed by President Trump are likely to serve as negotiation tactics, meaning they may not be fully implemented or could be abandoned if alternative trade agreements are reached. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering a phased approach to tariff implementation, which may help mitigate market reactions. A closer look at Trump’s latest stance on China indicates a willingness to de-escalate tensions and increase engagement. However, his previous trade policies were highly aggressive, often involving heavy tariffs on Chinese imports.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERShort
by Ali_PSND
Australian dollar extends losses on soft Aussie CPIThe Australian dollar is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 1.3% this week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6228, down 0.37% on the day.  Australia's annual inflation rate dropped to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 2.8% in Q3. This was below the market estimate of 2.5% and was the lowest reading since Q1 2023. Electricity prices were sharply lower due to an energy bill rebate and services inflation dropped to 4.3% from 4.6%, its lowest level in three quarters. On a quarterly basis, CPI remained unchanged at 0.2% in Q4, below the market estimate of 0.3%. The Reserved Bank of Australia's trimmed mean CPI, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slowed to 0.5% q/q in Q4, lower than 0.8% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 0.6%. Annually, trimmed mean CPI fell to 3.2%, compared to a revised 3.6% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 3.3%. The soft inflation report has raised expectations that the RBA will lower rates at the Feb. 18 meeting, with the market pricing in a quarter-point cut at 80%. That would bring the cash rate to 4.10%, its lowest since Oct. 2023. Today's inflation report has added significance as it is the final tier-1 event prior to next month's rate meeting. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate announcement later today, although it would be a massive surprise if the Fed did not maintain the current benchmark interest rate of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed has cut rate three consecutive times, including a jumb0 half-point chop in September 2024, but the resilient US economy has stalled plans to aggressively lower rates further and currently the Fed is projected to cut rates only once or twice in 2025. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6228. Below, there is support at 0.6204 0.6262 and 0.6286 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – Short Setup into Bearish FVG Context & Rationale: Price is pushing into a rising channel near a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), aligning with a bearish signal. Expecting a potential rejection, especially if upcoming macro news or Fed commentary adds downside pressure. Trade Idea (Short): – Entry: Enter short inside or near the 4H FVG region. – Stop: Tight stop above the FVG boundary (risking 0.5% of account). – Target: Look for a 1:2 or better risk-to-reward ratio, aiming for key structure lows. Risk Management: This is a counter-trend play against the recent rally. If price closes above the FVG zone or invalidates the channel, be prepared to exit promptly and reassess.
Short
by Fondera
XAUUSD - Gold awaits the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling marked with the target of the bottom of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that the anticipated interest rate cuts could be delayed if Donald Trump’s second-term tariffs take effect and drive inflation higher. Speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC, he stated: “I have been saying for some time that inflation is far more persistent than we initially thought. The key question now is how tariffs will impact inflation.” He further added: “Tariffs are unlikely to help in reducing inflation. Therefore, I do not expect rates to drop as quickly as many anticipate.” With Trump’s trade policies in play, the risk of rising inflation is high, and a major clash between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts seems inevitable. Such tensions could negatively impact the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Scott Bessant, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, is proposing a gradual global tariff plan starting at 2.5%, which will increase monthly and could reach up to 20%. This strategy aims to give businesses time to adjust to the new economic landscape. The Financial Times reported this plan, citing anonymous sources for details. At the same time, the U.S.Senate has confirmed Scott Bessant as Treasury Secretary with a majority vote. This decision comes as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Colombia, reinforcing his aggressive trade policy stance. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is set to conclude today, and it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts argue that gold markets are now focusing more on Trump’s policies rather than short-term aggressive monetary measures. Gold prices rallied after Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a video address to global business leaders and policymakers, he urged central banks worldwide to cut interest rates. Trump stated: “I am strongly calling for an immediate rate cut, and this must happen globally.” Economists note that Trump’s remarks contradict the current economic reality, as a relatively strong economy continues to fuel persistent inflation. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has warned consumers about growing upside inflation risks and is seeking to shorten the current monetary easing cycle. Ahead of this week’s policy meeting, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with only one rate cut projected for this year. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that the divergent views between Trump and the Federal Reserve have created uncertainty, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset. He further stated that the recent bullish momentum in the gold market suggests that the $2,800 price level may just be the beginning. Hansen concluded: “As long as this uncertainty persists, I see no risk of overheating. Any downside break could trigger fresh buying interest.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The EURUSD currency pair is located above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. Maintaining the drawn ascending channel will lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards the channel ceiling. A correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with its next opportunity to buy it. Donald Trump’s remarks about imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have sparked concerns among European companies. A report by Bank of America (BofA) highlights dozens of European firms that are vulnerable to these tariffs due to their supply chain dependencies and revenue exposure. Among these companies, the Italian automaker Stellantis stands out. According to the report, Stellantis operates 16 supply chain links in Canada and derives 47% of its total revenue from North America. Similarly, the German auto giant BMW has 18 supply chain links in Canada and generates 26% of its revenue from the United States. In the energy sector, the UK-based utility company National Grid, with a market value of €58 billion, has a significant presence in the U.S., where 50% of its assets and 54% of its revenue originate. Although its tangible supply chain exposure in Mexico and Canada is relatively low, its extensive operations in the U.S. make it highly susceptible to the negative impacts of these tariffs. Eurozone Bank Lending Survey – January 2025: • Credit Standards: In Q4 2024, corporate credit standards tightened due to rising perceived risks and reduced risk tolerance. • Mortgage Loans: Credit standards for household mortgages remained unchanged, but lending conditions for consumer credit tightened further. • Loan Demand: Mortgage loan demand surged significantly, while corporate loan demand remained weak. According to analysts at Standard Chartered, financial markets are currently overly focused on Donald Trump’s economic policies, potentially overlooking the risks associated with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision today following a two-day meeting. It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain within the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, investors are keen to find clues regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Based on market pricing, expectations suggest a 40-basis-point rate cut by December. A key unknown factor influencing this outlook is Donald Trump’s policies. He has recently called on the Fed to lower interest rates. Additionally, his tariff policies, which include imposing high tariffs on both allies and competitors, could further drive inflationary pressures. As a result, the Fed may proceed cautiously with its rate-cut cycle. However, Trump’s administration has not yet implemented widespread tariffs, though he has threatened to do so. Meanwhile, some Fed officials have recently signaled a more hawkish stance. There is also speculation that the Fed may seek to assert its independence at the beginning of Trump’s new presidential term by resisting his demands. If the Fed takes such a position, Trump may respond aggressively, which could further heighten market uncertainty.
Long
by Ali_PSND
WTI: Will oil return to the upward trajectory?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable reward for risk will be provided to us. A valid breakdown of the drawn downtrend line and preservation of the channel will pave the way for oil to reach the drawn ranges. Under the pressure of imminent sanctions planned by the Trump administration and the debts Iran now owes to China, the country has begun offloading crude oil that had been stored in Chinese warehouses for years. This oil, shipped to China between 2018 and 2019 but not officially declared in Chinese customs records, was kept in isolated, pre-designated storage facilities. With storage costs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, Iran is now obligated to cover these expenses. So far, 5.4 million barrels of oil have been removed from a Chinese port, transported by a total of four tankers. According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current supply policy in its meeting next week. This decision contradicts the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged oil producers to increase output to lower prices and exert more economic pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Under the current plan, oil supply restrictions will remain in place for this quarter and will gradually ease starting in April. Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order to initiate the development of a “next-generation” missile defense system in the United States. This system, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, is designed to protect the U.S. from ballistic missile attacks, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other modern aerial threats. According to the released information, the executive order aims to establish an advanced space-based missile defense system capable of detecting and neutralizing missiles launched toward the U.S. Conceptually, this resembles Israel’s Iron Dome, which has been used for years to intercept and destroy rockets fired from Gaza. The U.S.government has already invested billions of dollars in developing Israel’s Iron Dome, and the American military possesses its own missile defense systems. The order describes missile attacks as a “catastrophic threat,” but no details have been provided regarding the project’s costs or timeline. Developing a comprehensive missile defense system for a country as geographically vast as the U.S. is a highly complex and costly endeavor. Additionally, the emergence of next-generation missile threats, such as hypersonic missiles that travel at extremely high speeds, presents significant technical challenges. This indicates that the project will require substantial investment and time for completion.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
USD/JPY: Will the Fed or BoJ Dominate the Tug of War?The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown both resilience and vulnerability in recent trading sessions, shaped by competing factors from monetary policy shifts to global economic developments. On the positive side, the U.S. dollar remains underpinned by Federal Reserve rate decisions, with market expectations of steady rates in the near term supporting its strength. Tariff threats from the U.S. administration further bolster the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly as external economic pressures persist. Additionally, the pair has demonstrated an ability to recover from lower levels, such as rebounding to 155.50 during Tuesday's Asian trading, aided by softer Japanese service-sector inflation data. However, the Japanese yen has also gained momentum due to the Bank of Japan’s recent 25 basis point rate hike, which reflects a confident stance on inflation and wage growth trends. This decision has increased the yen’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, exacerbating pressure on the USD/JPY pair, particularly as global uncertainties and shifts in risk sentiment encourage investors to diversify into safe havens like the yen and the Swiss franc. Market sentiment surrounding U.S. economic vulnerabilities, including concerns over tariffs and a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, has further weighed on the dollar. Traders are now pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this year, a factor that could erode the dollar’s appeal if realized. Overall, while USD/JPY has displayed moments of strength, the competing influences of U.S. dollar dynamics, Japanese yen strength, and global market sentiment create a volatile environment where traders must remain vigilant of economic data and central bank decisions.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
SWING TRADE SETUP ON EURUSD We had a nice move to the upside yesterday following a shift on the 1H timeframe, Hope some of you were able to catch the move to the upside. If not there is another setup that I am looking at. This is a swing setup and if played out I expect for TP to be hit within the week. The main thing to keep in mind is that we have interest rate decisions for both the FED and ECB. Depending on how the numbers come out this setup will stay valid or EURUSD will break below the invalidation point and continue it's move to the down side. Good risk management is key with these news events.
by Keyserfx
Gold: Under Attack, Key Support in DangerThe gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices undergoing a correction after approaching multi-month highs. Currently, XAU/USD is trading around $2,740, below the key resistance at $2,790, as recent declines reflect a mix of profit-taking, technical pressures, and macroeconomic factors. Recent selling has triggered a natural correction after prices neared significant resistance levels, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been scaled back, strengthening the US Dollar and putting further pressure on gold prices. Algorithmic trading has also amplified the declines. Market sentiment has been impacted by comments from the US President regarding tariffs, which have boosted the dollar and reduced demand for gold as a safe haven. Additionally, weak PMI data from China in January has indicated economic contraction, fueling global risk sentiment and further weighing on gold. Despite the recent drop, gold previously benefited from a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, which pushed prices near record highs. However, trade concerns and the recent strengthening of the dollar have reversed this trend. Technically, gold finds provisional support around $2,730, although further bearish pressure could push it toward $2,700 or lower. The key resistance at $2,790 remains challenging to breach without positive macroeconomic momentum or a weaker dollar, while $2,730 acts as the first defensive level, followed by $2,700, which could serve as a stronger base. Traders should focus on upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's rate decision on January 29, which will directly influence the dollar and, consequently, gold prices. A more hawkish stance could intensify pressure on gold. The European Central Bank’s decision on January 30 could also shift global sentiment, while US Q4 GDP data may play a role, as strong growth figures could further support the dollar and limit gold’s upside potential. Gold is currently in a correction phase, and while key resistance stands at $2,790, support near $2,730 remains crucial. If this support level breaks, gold could face additional downside pressure, though signs of a global economic slowdown or dovish signals from central banks could spark a recovery.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1