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XAUUSD Is it time to go down? Target 2026!Gold Trend: The price of gold appears to be in an upward phase, testing $2,050 per troy ounce. This could be influenced by various factors, including expectations regarding inflation, the strength of the dollar, and the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Role of the Dollar: Although the US dollar is showing signs of recovery, it remains generally weak. Hopes for an end to the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve may be one of the factors contributing to this weakness. Federal Reserve Position: Statements from some regional bank presidents of the Federal Reserve indicate a divergence of opinions regarding the future path of monetary policy. While some are confident that inflation will remain under control, others are more cautious and do not rule out further interest rate hikes. Government Bond Yields: Yields on US government bonds are declining, indicating some caution or concern about the economy. The recent lows in yields may reflect a growing focus on safe-haven assets such as gold. Upcoming Key Events: Investors seem to be awaiting US inflation data, particularly the October Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. A further decrease in inflationary pressure could positively impact the market and pose a threat to the demand for dollars.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
GOLD 2 SCENARIOSDear Traders, "There are currently two potential scenarios unfolding for XAUUSD (Gold paired against the US Dollar). The first scenario involves a bullish trajectory where XAUUSD is poised to surpass the highest resistance point ever witnessed in the gold market. This would signify a significant breakthrough, potentially leading to a historic milestone for gold prices. On the flip side, the second scenario considers the possibility of a retracement in price movement. This scenario draws from historical trends, notably three previous instances where XAUUSD retraced after approaching similar highs. Understanding these past occurrences suggests a potential pattern of retracement following a surge toward this critical resistance level. Both scenarios hold significance and warrant careful observation. Traders and investors are keenly monitoring market movements to decipher which direction XAUUSD will ultimately take. The breakthrough of the highest resistance point could signal a substantial bullish trend, whereas a retracement would echo previous market behaviors, potentially offering insights into future price movements. As always, market analysis remains dynamic and subject to various factors. Traders must diligently assess the evolving market conditions and indicators to make informed decisions based on these two probable scenarios for XAUUSD." Greetings, ZTRADES
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ZILATRADES
Gold approaching 2000 ahead of GDP!The price of gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on intraday gains, hovering around the $2,052 level and retracing from a peak touched last Wednesday, near seven months ago. Despite a modest rebound in the US dollar and a positive risk tone, the precious metal remains in positive territory for the fifth consecutive day. The Federal Reserve officials' recent less hawkish statements confirm the market's bets on monetary policy tightening starting from March 2024. The disappointing auction of US Treasury bonds has lowered yields, providing support for gold. Attention is now focused on the preliminary US GDP report and the core PCE price index, which will influence Fed policy expectations and guide the direction of the dollar and gold.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
USOIL: Bearish channel with a consolidation phase before $70!The prices of oil appear very negative as they record losses for the fourth consecutive day. Markets are selling crude oil futures contracts due to the current division within OPEC+ on how to proceed, with the prospect of a lack of severe measures to support oil prices. The postponement of the OPEC+ meeting to a virtual mode on Thursday highlights a deep division within the organization, signaling an unfavorable situation for oil prices, which require a united front to maintain current levels. In addition to Thursday's OPEC+ meeting, the COP28 meeting will begin in Dubai. Several market participants have expressed their forecasts on OPEC+'s decisions. The consensus is that even if OPEC+ extends the current production cuts, it is unlikely to lead to a strong rally. Oil prices are poised for further declines as there are no measures in place against the considered bearish factors. On a daily basis, the price has been inside a bearish channel for days and continues to descend. Currently, it is positioned between a supply and demand zone very close to each other, which could create a period of stagnation or consolidation. The sentiment remains bearish, and personally, I expect the price to head towards the $70.00 per barrel area. Greetings from Gaia, wishing everyone a good trading day.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
3
EURUSD Bullish channel with a breakout above 1.0950!During Monday's Asian session, the EUR/USD pair experienced modest declines, primarily due to renewed demand for US dollars. The rise of the EUR seems constrained due to current macroeconomic prospects. Currently, the pair is trading near 1.0935, with a 0.08% loss for the day. Economic data from Germany indicates an improvement in the German IFO business climate index in November, but this appears to have little significant impact on the euro's performance. A moderate expansion in private sector economic activity is anticipated in the United States for November, but disappointments in the data could affect the resilience of the US dollar (USD) in the American session. Additionally, the price is currently at 1.0950 after a false breakout on the daily chart. I expect a potential price retracement to two key levels, the first at 1.0850 and then at 1.0760, corresponding to the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, a breakout to the upside of the 1.0950 level on a daily chart could suggest an upward movement with the objective of reaching the June highs at 1.12. Wishing everyone a successful trading day. Greetings from Gaia.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
XAUUSD: 2014 will be the crucial level in view of the Fed!The price of gold has struggled to surpass $2,000, facing resistance around $2,010. Daily oscillators suggest potential buying opportunities around $1,989-1.988, with support levels at $1,979-1.978 and $1,965. A break below the latter could lead to levels around $1,940. On the other hand, a break above $2,000 could pave the way for $2,007 and $2,009-2,010, with positive prospects to reach $2,022 and $2,040. However, the current price fluctuates below $2,000, with investors cautious about the future direction, influenced by FOMC minutes and positive US data. Speculations about higher interest rates and US Treasury yields hinder gold. Despite expectations for the Fed to maintain stable rates, fears of a hike persist. Weak signals from stock markets support gold as a safe haven, but the situation remains uncertain. The US dollar is recovering, but traders anticipate stability or possible rate cuts in 2024. The economic context influences gold prospects, still on track for the second consecutive weekly gain, with attention turning to US PMIs for further indications. First, I expect a price increase to the 2014 level, where I've identified two possible scenarios: a breakout of the supply zone with a subsequent retest before moving towards the 2023 high. The second scenario involves a price increase to the 2014 level, followed by a pullback towards 1981, where I've identified a crucial daily chart support and resistance level. My overall view is bullish in the long term. Greetings from Gaia, and happy trading to all.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
1
How the Grinch Stole Black FridayCME: E-Mini S&P 500 Options ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Options ( CME_MINI:NQ1! ) Initial data from the biggest U.S. shopping day sends a mixed signal. • E-commerce sales on Friday increased by 8.5% year-over-year, while in-store sales grew by just 1.1%, according to MasterCard Spendingpulse. The aggregate Black Friday retail sales rose 2.5%, excluding automotive sales and not adjusted for inflation. • Adobe Analytics estimated that Black Friday shoppers spent a record $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales, up 7.5% from last year, according to Bloomberg. • Brokerage TD Cowen lowered its U.S. holiday spending estimate to 2-3% growth, from 4-5%, as it forecasts flat Black Friday traffic. On Friday, I toured a dozen stores in Alton, Illinois, a small midwestern town where the Illinois River and Missouri River merge and form the mighty Mississippi. My trip covers big box retailers Kohl and Target, discount retailer Walmart, home improvement store Home Depot, specialty store Big Lot, thrift stores Dollar Tree and Goodwill, and the Alton Square Mall. My unscientific survey reveals some common patterns: unfilled parking lot, low frequency of shoppers coming in and out, no crowd in the store, and a short wait line at the checkout counter. What’s missing this year are the deeply discounted and limited quantity Big Ticket merchandises that drive shoppers to the stores at 5:00 a.m. After taking the 4% core CPI into account, the real growth in Black Friday sales comes to a negative number. Shoppers are paying more for fewer merchandises. The Grinch who stole the show is inflation. While inflation rate has been in decline this year, it only means a slower rate of price increase. The absolute price level continues rising. CPI for All Urban Consumers is 307.7 in October 2023, up from 252.9 in October 2018. The cumulative price increase in the last five years is 21.7%. While online sales is very robust, in-store purchases are more subdued. However, even though Black Friday is not as exciting as it used to be, U.S. consumers are remarkedly resilient when it comes to holiday shopping. When cash saving is depleted, they tap into credit card borrowing. Once credit limit is maxed out, they opt for the “buy now pay later” option offered by many stores and payment apps. As long as the job market stays strong, the deterioration of consumer spending will be a slow process. In my writing last week, I hypothesized that the U.S. retail sector could collapse if holiday shopping falters. With a mixed signal from Black Friday, we need to monitor Cyber Monday and the rest of the holiday shopping season to validate this claim. Year-to-date Performance by Asset Class As we are fast approaching the end of 2023, I want to pause and compare how major market assets performed so far. Below are year-to-date returns, ranking from high to low, for eight financial instruments. They each represent a major asset class: 1. Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency): +132.2% 2. S&P 500 (Equity Index): +18.8% 3. Gold (Precious Metal): +8.5% 4. Euro (Forex): +3.1% 5. Copper (Base Metal): +0.6% 6. WTI (Energy): -1.8% 7. 10-Year Bond (Fixed Income): -9.0% 8. Corn (Agricultural): -30.9% The stock market has an above-average annual gain, while cryptocurrencies have out-of-the-chart extraordinary performance. The rest of the asset classes either have mediocre returns or lost money for investors. One may tend to think what’s flying high now will continue to fly high. Is that true? Back testing this using the 2022 annual return, we will see completely different ranking: 1. Corn (Agricultural): +13.8% 2. Gold (Precious Metal): +2.6% 3. WTI (Energy): -0.7% 4. Euro (Forex): -6.2% 5. Copper (Base Metal): -14.8% 6. S&P 500 (Equity Index): +19.6% 7. 10-Year Bond (Fixed Income): -20.0% 8. Bitcoin (Cryptocurrency): -63.8% Corn, the loss-leader in 2023, was the champion star performer in 2022. Bitcoin lost the most last year, then rebounded and climbed the highest this year. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. We can’t emphasize enough this plain simple truth. The Battle between the Fed and Market Expectation The Fed’s rate decision remains the single most important factor that drives market direction. Currently, investors price in an aggressive rate-cutting schedule for the Fed, while the Fed adapts to a step-by-step approach to rate decision-making. As time goes by, market expectation and the Fed decision will have to converge. We may not know who will give in first, but jobs and inflation data released ahead of the Fed meeting could carry invaluable insight. In my writeup, “Fed Pivot Breathes Life into Markets”, published on November 6th, I explored the idea of using stock index options to trade the events of big reports. The November jobs report will be released on December 8th, and the November CPI data will be published on December 12th. These big reports, available to the Fed right before the December 15th FOMC, could have a major impact on its rate decision. Consider this: Stock market volatility is at a 3-year low. VIX is currently quoting 12.5, down from about 26 in March. You could find asset-specific volatility using CME Group’s CVOL data. We know that options value is positively correlated with volatility. A low volatility suppressed the premium of both call and put options. My theory: The cost of acquiring options is getting lower. If a big report comes in beyond market expectation, volatility could spike, making the options more valuable. What’s more: with stock indexes trending up, put options get even cheaper. Therefore, the time may be ripe to trade the options on CME E-Mini stock index futures. CME E-Mini S&P 500 index futures ( NYSE:ES ) has a notional value of $50 times the index. With the underlying December futures ESZ3 settled at 4568.25 last Friday, an out-of-the-money (OTM) put options with the strike price of 4500 is quoted 21.50. An OTC call with 4650-strike is quoted 13.00. To acquire one put options, a trader will pay a premium of $1,075 (= 50 x 21.50) up front. The cost of one call options is $650 (=50 x 13.00). CME E-Mini Nasdaq index futures ( SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ ) has a notional value of $20 times the index. With the December futures NQZ3 settled at 16,011, an OTM put options with a 15,500-strike is quoted 66.75. An OTC call with a 16,500-strike is quoted 49.50. To acquire one put options, a trader will pay a premium of $1,335 (= 20 x 66.75) up front. The cost of one call options is $990 (=20 x 49.50). If ES and NQ rise, call options would become more valuable, while put options decline in value. When the market turns against the trader, he could lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. Similarly, if ES and NQ fall, put options would gain while call options lose out. When the trader is wrong, he could lose money, up to but not beyond the upfront premium. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by JimHuangChicago
SP500: Pullback before the big Bull Run towards 4700!Essentially, the session of the U.S. stock market index was relatively flat, hovering close to previous values and closing with a modest increase of 0.06%. The start remained stable compared to the previous day's close, with subsequent movements within a trading range throughout the entire session and an improvement towards the peak reached at 4,560.3. Presently, the short-term analysis of the Standard & Poor's 500 index indicates a decisive upward trend, with a identified target at 4,574.4. In the event of a temporary physiological correction, the immediate target is seen at 4,529.1. However, expectations are leaning towards a further increase in the curve, reaching a maximum of 4,619.8. Anticipations include a slight pullback towards 4,400 after an impressively strong bull run, followed by a resurgence towards 4,700. I anticipate a retracement within the median of the bullish channel corresponding to the 0.38% Fibonacci level. Share your thoughts; I would be enthusiastic to hear them. Best regards and have a great Sunday from Gaia.
SP:SPXLong
by UnknownUnicorn67331274
2
GREED, GREED, GREED but what follows?About a month back, I made a solid move in the market that sparked a strong rally. Now, as we near the end of a strong earnings season, I'm in a neutral position, but I'm taking steps to secure gains by trimming my positions. I reckon a decent pullback would be beneficial before considering further upward movement. There's quite a few gaps to fill due to some impulsive buying, and I believe reallocating capital is crucial for a healthier market, especially considering how much weight big tech holds in the SPY. NVIDIA's earnings showed remarkable strength. They surpassed already optimistic expectations by a significant 10%. The $600 target set by premium sellers seemed overly ambitious, yet those sellers managed to benefit from the earnings report released last week. Many institutional investors are operating under the assumption of a smooth landing in 2024, envisioning reduced rates, a depreciating US Dollar, a weakened Chinese macroeconomy, and sustained dominance in Large Cap Tech. The consensus among fund managers leans towards the belief that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of forthcoming decreases in short-term rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable shift of interest towards Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Japanese stocks. (Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, BLOOMBERG)
AMEX:SPY
by SPADESASSETS
GOLD - Higher Timeframe Overview ✨This may be against the trend or as my friend says "going against a tsunami" but there's technical evidence to suggest that we may see a drop in Gold for the next couple of months. On the monthly timeframe we appear to be in wave 3 - which is made out of 5 impulsive subwaves. See below: Wave 2 and Wave 4 are ABC corrective waves and on the weekly timeframe we can see that we are still within the ABC corrective parameters of wave 4 and awaiting the final C wave, which is a move down. We have the FED rate decision on March 16th which could really shake the market. We're expecting USD strength during FED and Gold is weighted against the USD and is inversely correlated. If USD goes up, GOLD should go down... eventually. It is important that we do NOT jump in to shorting Gold early without seeing either of the following: - Lack of buyers - Any sellers At the moment there are plenty of buyers of Gold due to the war in Ukraine - Gold is acting as a safe haven. Also, there does not seem to be any sellers entering the market... yet. The key event to watch is the FED rate decision on March 16th. We could potentially see the start of the bearish wave C during the event. Once we see the first move down, we can prepare ourselves for an entry once we see a correction. See below: It's better to wait for confirmation rather than try and call the tops and bottoms of a move. Plenty of money to be made after seeing the confirmation and it's less likely you'll be riding out drawdown. Would love to hear your thoughts - leave your comments below. Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by WicktatorFX
30
EUR/USD slips on ECB warning, PMIs nextThe euro is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0864, down 0.42%.  The ECB released its semi-annual financial stability review earlier today and warned of stress in financial stability in the eurozone. The report found that tighter financial conditions were making it difficult for households, businesses and governments. In short, the financial stability outlook remains fragile. The review warned that the Israel-Hamas war posed the risk of affecting the supply of oil, which could push inflation higher and dampen growth. The economic picture in the eurozone is not encouraging, as the eurozone economy is stagnating and Germany, once a global powerhouse, has become a deadweight in the eurozone with its weak economy. The euro has jumped 2.8% against the US dollar in November, but that is more a case of US dollar weakness due to expectations of rate cuts in the US rather than strength in the euro. In the US, unemployment claims were lower than anticipated, coming in at 209 thousand. This was below the market consensus of 225,000 and the previous revised release of 233 thousand. The reading indicates that the labour market is still showing signs of strength, which supports the Federal Reserve's rate policy of higher for lower.  The Federal Reserve minutes of the November meeting stated that the Fed plans to proceed with caution and will be keeping an eye on the data in making future rate decisions. The minutes made no reference to any discussion at the meeting about rate cuts, consistent with Jerome Powell's comments after the meeting that the Fed "is not thinking about rate cuts at all". The markets would beg to disagree and have priced in a rate cut in mid-2024. There is resistance at 1.0951 and 1.1017 1.0831 and 1.0748 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD heading towards 1.2550, where history will be made!The GBP/USD continues to rise for the third consecutive session, supported by the speech of the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey at the Henry Plumb Memorial Lecture on Monday. The GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.2530 during Tuesday's Asian session, approaching 11-week highs. The GBP/USD was last seen trading near 1.2470, where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend from July to October is located. If the pair confirms that level as resistance, it could extend its downward correction towards 1.2430 and 1,2400. Despite the US Dollar (USD) facing strong selling pressure last week, weak inflation data in the UK has made it challenging for the GBP/USD to extend its uptrend. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated on Monday that they can start the next phase of fiscal policy and focus on reducing taxes now that inflation has halved. Sunak also noted that taxes can be reduced once inflation and debt are under control, adding that they want to support businesses to invest through lower taxes. All of this is pushing the price towards 1.2550. A crucial point where we could witness a technical confirmation of continuation or reversal. Today's and tomorrow's data during the London session will be interesting. At the time of writing, the daily chart does not show scenarios of a downtrend, but the market is unpredictable, so entry should only be made with the necessary confirmations. Personally, I will wait for the price around 1.255 and then look for M15/H4 for a long/short entry depending on technical confirmations. Comment and leave a like, greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
12
XAUUSD: Reaction to the supply zone at 1983!The situation in the Middle East has impacted global markets, affecting commodities like the gold price on Comex. Despite optimism related to Chinese stimulus and expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, Comex gold faces challenges. The recent US CPI report indicated consumer inflation cooling faster than anticipated, while unemployment claims suggested a slowdown in the labor market. Market expectations of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December 2023 and potential rate cuts in 2024 have pushed the yield on the US Treasury's 10-year note to a two-month low, benefiting gold. The decline in the US dollar since September and concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hamas, with potential impacts on the global economy, have contributed to supporting gold. The People's Bank of China's decision to keep borrowing rates low and inject liquidity into markets, along with Chinese regulators' commitment to further support the real estate sector, has boosted investor confidence and limited gold's safe-haven appeal. The price of gold is currently undergoing a corrective downward phase after reaching a recent ten-day high of $1,993 on Friday, seeking a clear direction as a new week begins on Monday. The price is testing bearish commitments while hovering around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1,975, having sharply retraced from multi-day highs on Friday. Failure to defend this level on a daily closing basis could trigger a renewed downtrend towards static support in the $1,955-$1,950 range. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates the price is in an overbought condition, suggesting a potential downward movement. The immediate upside barrier is observed at the descending trendline resistance of $1,991, above which Friday’s high of $1,993 could be retested. The corrective decline in the gold price is influenced by risk sentiment, with the absence of significant US economic data, communication from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Risk sentiment is expected to be a crucial factor in gold price dynamics and is currently influenced by optimism regarding Chinese stimulus and positive corporate earnings reports from Japanese companies. Gold is currently in an interesting situation; at the time of writing, the price is reacting to the $1980 level after reaching a supply zone on the daily chart. It will be interesting to wait for operational confirmations, above $2000 to continue and attempt to ride the bullish trend or, conversely, wait for the price to fall below $1920-$1890 to assess potential declines towards the $1850 zone. A truly interesting pair to follow.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
17
USD/JPY Waiting for USD news!The USD/JPY pair recorded an increase near the 150.20 area, recovering some of the previous losses caused by weaker-than-expected US inflation data. However, the US dollar is near its lowest level since September, reflecting expectations that the Federal Reserve has concluded its tightening policy. The BoJ may delay a shift from accommodative monetary policies following the contraction of the Japanese economy. The daily trend is bearish, but the pair shows resilience above the psychological level of 150.00 and an ascending trendline. A downside break could lead to further declines towards 149.20-149.15, while an upside move may encounter resistance at 151.00, 151.20, and 151.90. The situation calls for caution before positioning for further gains or losses.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
9
US30 general viewEnglish For this index, I see how we are on a bullish rally (Christmas rally) which is about to break its last H(HIGH) and unless something happen with the FOMC on December, I wouldn`t expect to start a bearish movement. We are currently in a monthly OB which is the last H, if it breaks that H, we could expect higher prices and maybe break the ATH price, but we also have the possibility to go down, but in this point, it is up to the FOMC and all they say on December, let`s see how the price moves. By now, it looks better to buy and not to sell, it is more probable to happen. *THIS IT NOT INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, THIS IS ONLY FOR ANALYSIS AND EDUCATION PURPOSE* Español Para este ìndice, veo como estamos en pleno rally alcista (Rally navideño) el cual está cerca de romper su máximo anteriores y a menos que la FED comente algo en su reunión en diciembre que afecte al dolar, seguramente siga subiendo, no espero iniciar un movimiento a la baja. Estamos en pleno OB mensual bajista, el cual puede servir de contenedor para que no suba, pero lo puede romper e incluso subir a su precio ATH y romperlo, vamos a ver cómo se mueve el mercado después de la reunión de la FED en diciembre. De momento, es más probable comprar y tener éxito que vender. *ESTO NO ES RECOMENDACIÓN DE INVERSIÓN NI NADA QUE SE LE PAREZCA, ESTO ES SOLO PARA ANÁLISIS Y EDUCACIÓN*
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by DarkTradingCapital
EUR/USD Breakout to the upside followed by a pullback towards 1.On Friday, the EUR/USD exchange rate is rising, approaching 1.0900, with the U.S. dollar supported by higher Treasury yields and mixed market sentiment. The pair is poised to mark the highest weekly close since August. Despite a lower low, the pair quickly reversed the trend upwards according to the daily chart. The 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) are directionless between 1.0790 and 1.0800, while the 20 SMA is accelerating north below the longer ones. Technical indicators, though stable near overbought levels, show a slight increase without a clear directional bias. In the short term, the technical outlook suggests a potential uptrend, as 4-hour chart indicators corrected from extremely overbought readings, reflecting a growing buying interest. The bullish momentum is likely to resume by surpassing the immediate resistance level at 1.0890. In fact, we have a price oscillating between two support and resistance areas. Let's say the long-term outlook is bullish, and I expect the price to break the level of 1.0946 before a retest of the 1.09 level, and then move towards 1.10. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
19
USDJPY: Trendline breakout, wait for retestLooks like USDJPY has broken down through the rising trendline, there was a slight recovery at the backend of Friday, this indicates we could see a short retracement from here to test the trendline break, and then down. The Yen performed well at the start of Friday, I don't believe this was BoJ intervention, as they have said that they expect the fundamentals to play out - we'll see, bad data from JPY this week may necessitate intervention, however good data on Friday (PMI) will I think be enough to start the recovery process for the Yen. If Japan looks like it's going to have a soft landing then I think markets will reward the Yen with a more positive sentiment and this could mean we get a lot of good action for these crosses. I think the USD is done being bullish for now (even the hawkish speakers cannot convince the markets), so either way I think we'll see this pair fall, so monitoring LTF's for a suitable entry / rejection from the retest point. A break below 148.5 will see a more sustained move to the downside, imho.
Short
by Finchcliffe
NASDAQ Pullback before 16,500!On November 17th, the USA's technology stocks index closed with a modest gain of +0.03%. The opening was stable compared to the previous day's closing, followed by a gradual improvement throughout the session. The short-term trend of the Nasdaq 100 is strengthening, with a resistance area identified at 15,956.4, while the nearest support is seen at 15,601.2. An upward continuation towards the level of 16,311.6 is expected. Furthermore, after the breakout from the bearish channel in the daily chart, I anticipate a retracement to the level of approximately 15,200, which corresponds to the 0.5% Fibonacci level. After that, I will aim to ride the upward trend, targeting an entry with a goal between 16,300 and 16,700. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
14
USOIL: Pullback to the upside before the descent! West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, has rebounded from a three-month low of $72.22, experiencing a more than 4% increase during the mid-North American session. This rise has been attributed to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil shippers and profit-taking by traders. Currently, WTI is traded at $75.97 per barrel, marking a gain of 4.27%. The U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on companies and vessels involved in shipping oil beyond the G7's $60 limit, with the aim of reducing Russian profits linked to actions in Ukraine. Despite an increase in U.S. crude oil stockpiles and a rise in Baker Hughes' drilling rig count, indicating growing oil production, WTI prices have not been significantly influenced. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel with the possibility of a pullback to the upside before resuming the downward trend towards 68 points. Let me know what you think, comment, and leave a like. Greetings from Nicola, the CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
TVC:USOILShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
13
GBP/USD Pullback in Sight Before Reaching 1.28?The GBP/USD pair is currently slightly above the 1.2400 level, navigating the upper part of the recent consolidation range. Initially, the British Pound gained 2.25% against the US Dollar midweek but later trimmed its increase to a more modest 1.65%. Despite general market optimism due to speculation about the Federal Reserve possibly pausing interest rate hikes, the GBP/USD remains trapped in a mid-range position, influenced by disappointing economic data from the UK. In October, retail sales in the UK decreased by 0.3% on a monthly basis, sharply contrasting with the expected increase of 0.3%. September's data was revised downward, changing from -0.9% to a significant -1.1%. Retail sales in the UK on an annual basis recorded an even steeper decline, with a decrease of -2.7% compared to the previous -1%, surpassing the forecast of -1.5%. The next focus for investors will be on the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes next week. From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD has recorded a 1.75% increase during the week, holding onto midweek gains. The key level to watch is the midweek peak at 1.2510, representing a significant challenge for the bulls. Additionally, next week, the price may face strong resistance at 1.2544, which could trigger a slight retracement before continuing upward towards 1.26-1.28. Share your opinions in the comments and give it a like. Have a great weekend and happy trading to everyone from Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
11