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Gold's Recovery Falters After Fed's Hawkish SkipGold prices fell sharply and erased intraday gains following the Federal Reserve's decision to skip a rate hike on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the spot price, XAU/USD, is trading at the $1,945 area, little changed on the day, having pulled back from an intraday peak of $1,960 an ounce. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds unchanged at 5.00%-5.25% following ten consecutive hikes. Although the (unanimous) decision was widely anticipated on the back of cooler inflation figures for May, the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's speech offered a hawkish message and boosted the US dollar. The Fed economic projections showed that most FOMC members anticipate the terminal rate to reach the 5.50%-5.75% range. At the presser, Powell noted that risks of overdoing and underdoing are closer to being in balance and highlighted that rate cuts wouldn't be appropriate this year. This hawkish stance boosted US Treasury yields across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising from 3.78% to 3.85% and the 2-year from 4.64% to 4.80%. The US dollar strengthened, and Gold took a hit as higher interest rates increase the metal's opportunity cost while reducing the demand as a hedge against inflation. From a technical perspective, XAU/USD holds a short-term bearish bias according to indicators on the daily chart. A loss of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,940 would expose the $1,900 area. On the other hand, a recovery past the 20-day SMA at the $1,960 area is needed to improve the short-term outlook, aiming at the $2,000 level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard. The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”. Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD. The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation. Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945. The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
🔥 FED Pauzing Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of a couple of minutes ago the FED has announced that they will pauze the interest rates and not hike any further. Since rising interest rates seems bearish for markets, a pauze is often a much more bearish signal. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED pauzes the hiking cycle ('flat mountain top'), it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. With the most recent pauze, one would be cautious for the future at the very least. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
19
USDCAD SHORT SIGNAL BEFORE FED RATESUSD/CAD faces downside pressure as the Loonie outpaces the decline in the USD Index. The pair has dropped sharply, reaching the support level of 1.3300 after encountering resistance at 1.3320. Upbeat oil prices provide support for the Canadian dollar, as investors anticipate a neutral interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve. This positive sentiment reduces fears of a US recession. Traders should monitor oil prices and the Fed's stance on rates. The Loonie's accelerated decline suggests a bearish sentiment. Overall, there is downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair, but careful analysis of economic and geopolitical factors is essential for informed trading decisions. Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
AUD/USD rally continues, Fed decision loomsThe Australian dollar continues to gain ground and is trading at 0.6795, up 0.42%. The Aussie has been red-hot in June, gaining 4.4%. Australia releases the May employment report early Thursday. The labour market has stayed solid despite aggressive rate hikes from the central bank, but there may be signs of cracks. In April, Australia shed jobs for the first time in three months, including 27,100 full-time jobs. The RBA won't be able to pause rates for an extended period unless it is convinced that the labour market is cooling down. The economy is expected to have gained 15,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.7%. US headline inflation fell to 4.0% in May, down from 4.9% and the lowest level since March 2021. This was positive news, but the decline was driven by a drop in lower food and energy prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, fell from 5.5% to 5.3%, a modest drop. Core CPI at its current level is not compatible with the Fed's 2% target, which will likely mean more rate hikes unless the core rate decelerates at a faster clip. The highlight of the week is the Fed rate decision later today. The markets are widely expecting a pause, which would break the streak of ten straight rate hikes. The rate decision may be a foregone conclusion, but the rate statement and Powell press conference could shed some light on what the Fed has planned next. If the Fed stresses that the current tightening cycle is not over, it could dampen risk sentiment and provide some support to the US dollar. AUD /USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6804. Next, there is resistance at 0.6863 0.6729 and 0.6632 are providing support
by OANDA
1
BTC ANALYSIS | FOMC news will decide the next directionBTC ANALYSIS | FOMC news will decide the next direction Ahead of the FOMC announcement in a couple of hours we are in a descending wedge/bull flag pattern that is a key identifier of consolidation and a precursor to a big move. Naturally until there is a break out it is difficult to determine the direction. The FOMC news should be a firestarter to gauge which way we are going to go here. So don't make any impulsive moves just yet and wait for the announcement and a commitment of direction from BTC.
by Kryptochristian
1
EURUSD before FEDCPI data came out yesterday and EURUSD hit the 1.0800 resistance and is holding at those levels for now. Today we await the most important news. At 20:00 Bulgarian time, the FED will announce the decision on interest rates, and 30 minutes later the press conference will begin. Regardless of the decision, we will see large fluctuations and it is advisable to reduce the risk beforehand. The objective remains confirmation of the upward movement here, with possible stops in both directions.
by ForexTrendline
3
Charts Show Market Expects Fed to Pause but Big Resistance AheadTraders, Over 90% of the market is currently pricing in a FED rate pause tomorrow, but beware, the market often moves towards the point of maximum pain. My charts are showing we are at a critical point of resistance as I type this post. The bulls are going to have to conquer 4,370 and confirm it on the daily to convince me that the they are not out of steam just yet. From my perspective and the way I am reading this chart, is that the market may be in for a bit of a surprise pullback here. The blow-off top that I predicted well over a year ago is still currently underway and, IMO, will continue. But the market never goes to any future price point in a straight line. We are due for a pullback. I am not saying this will occur. I am only suggesting that a bit of caution is still very much warranted for the remainder of this week. Here's a look at a schedule of significant events that have or will yet occur and may cause volatility: Tuesday: • US CPI Data • Hinman Docs Become Public • SEC's Coinbase Rulemaking Response • Binance US Hearing Wednesday: • US PPI Data • FOMC Meeting Thursday: • US Jobless Claims • US Retail Sales Data Take care, Stew
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by stewdamus
5
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
Gold Remains On The Back Foot Ahead Of Fed DecisionGold prices edged lower for a third day in a row on Tuesday, even though lower-than-expected US inflation data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from hiking rates on Wednesday. At the time of writing, gold spot price, XAU/USD, is trading at the $1,945/oz area, 0.59% below its opening price and printing the third daily decline in a row. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in May, below the expected increase of 0.2%. The annual inflation rate eased from 4.9% to 4.0%, hitting the lowest level in over two years. The Core CPI advanced 0.4%, in line with expectations, and the YoY rate slowed down to 5.3% in May from 5.5% in April. Although as the knee-jerk reaction US yields tumbled, weighing on the greenback, they've regained the composture with 2-, 5- and 10-year yields quoting above their opening levels during the American afternoon. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision and update economic projections. Following the latest series of US economic data, markets expect the central bank to remain on hold this meeting, keeping the federal fund target range at 5.00%-5.25%, and resume rate increases at the July meeting. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair holds a short-term slightly bearish bias, according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price is testing critical support at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at around $1,940. The loss of this level would point to further declines targeting the $1,900 level. On the other hand, a recovery of the 20-day SMA at $1,960 would ease the immediate pressure and pave the way to a retest of the $2,000 psychological level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBP/USD rebounds on strong UK job numbers, US inflation dropsThe British pound has pushed higher today, courtesy of a strong employment report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.64%. The UK labour market remains robust, and today's employment numbers were higher than expected.  The economy created 250,000 jobs, up from 182,000 crushing the consensus of 162,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, down from 4.0% and below the consensus of 4.0%. As well, average earnings including bonuses jumped to 6.5%, above 6.1%, which was also the consensus. The hot numbers will be a major disappointment for the Bank of England, which was expecting the labour market to show signs of cooling off after 12 straight rate hikes. The jump in wages may pose the biggest concern for the BoE, as high wage growth is a key driver of inflation, which remains very high at 8.7%.  Governor Bailey testifies today before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and the committee members are likely to grill Bailey on the latest job data. US inflation has been heading lower and the trend continued today. Headline CPI for May fell from 4.9% to 4.0%, just beating the consensus of 4.1%. The core rate dipped from 5.5% to 5.3%, as expected. The Fed's tightening policy has succeeded in pushing inflation lower, but the question is whether the Fed feels that inflation is dropping fast enough. Today's inflation data has the markets buying all into a pause at Wednesday's Fed meeting. The probability of a pause has soared to 99% according to CME's FedWatch, compared to 75% prior to the inflation release. There are Fed members who favour more rate hikes and the expected non-move on Wednesday could be a "hawkish skip" in which the Fed signals that it is taking a breather but more rate hikes are coming. There is resistance at 1.2657 and 1.2734 1.2513 and 1.2436 are providing support
by OANDA
JPY RAISING OR DOLLAR HAVENJPY is in a technical correction and is reaching local support at 139.9. I think this FOMC meeting officials will skip the rate hike and project hawkish sentiment for the next meeting. Some other reasons for dollar strength have also subsided. A lot of this trade is dependent on the idea, that US inflation is going to be flat or lower then expected. This will be revealed when CPI reports. Nothing much has changed for the JPY, except for higher inflation than usual. BOJ probably will continue its fiscal policy as is. What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.
Short
by tsmarts
SILVER - Catch This Continuation Trade!Last time we analysed Silver, we identified that we were in a new bullish phase. A bullish wave consists of 5 waves. Waves 1, 3 and 5 are impulse waves and wave 2 and 4 are corrective waves. We are now in wave 2 of the bullish impulse, which is a correction. The correction we're getting is a 535 correction, which is also known as a zigzag. Wave A has 5 waves, wave B has 3 waves and finally, wave C has 5 waves. We anticipate that wave B is almost over and looking to catch wave C. Trade Idea: - Looking for price to push a little higher before reversing - Safe entry on break of red trendline - Risk entry using a lower timeframe risk trendline once we push up a little more - Stops above price once the red trendline breaks - Targets: 22.8, 21.5, 20.6 See our last analysis below. Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
OANDA:XAGUSD
by WicktatorFX
1
DXY - Ready to skyrocket buying!This is DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) MONTHLY ANAYLSIS.. DXY Imminent Skyrocket Price is buying from Panic Zone (0 -382%) INSIDE MONTHLY DEMAND ZONE (PREVIOUSLY SUPPLY ZONE) We expect price BREAK 0% AREA (WEEKLY SUPPLY ZONE) and continue buying to TP1 A AND TP 2 B AREAS. TRIGGER: WAIT PRICE BREAK 0% AREA (104.620) When it's triggered, I suggest to open BUY POSITIONS on USD parallel pairs (USD/JPY, USD/CAD, USD/CHF) and SELL POSITIONS on opposite (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, BTC/USD) BULLISH INTERNAL CYCLE - WEEKLY ANALYSIS. - TP 1 - AREA A: 50 - 61.8 % (109.719 - 110.923) - TP 2 - AREA B: 100 % (114.819) - FINAL DESTINATION: MONTHLY SUPPLY ZONE (RED AREA ABOVE)
TVC:DXYLong
by imktads
QQQ | EU | AJ | BTC | DECRYPTERS Hi welcome to Team Decrypters Here is our Analysis of 4 pairs On how we are expecting the market to Move 1 - BITCOIN 2- NASDAQ 3- AUDJPY 4 - EUR USD THIS IS OVER AL LBIAS ONLY WE TRADE WHEN THERE WILL BE SETUP , ITS ONLY TO BE TAKEN AS TRADING PLANS 1- NASDAQ is on good level to sell 2- AUDJPY Good levels to Sell 3- Bitcoins good levels to Sell is Near 27k ( US is coming Hard on crypto , Time for the End of Bear market Rally ) 4- Aud jpy we wait for this pair to give us Trade ( JPY MONETRY policy will soon be in Favor of currency thats our chance to Enter ) Personal View :- Plz refer to last post description about FED and its Relation to Nasdaq , I Really Think we will go Down but some More Damage is Needed First I Even Think we will see Crash on NASDAQ sooner or later
by DECRYPTERS
XAUUSD | GOLD | DECRYPTERS HI Welcome to Team Decrypters First of keep this in MIND this analysis is on Daily Now for this week :- This Week we have FED meetings + Press conference This Meeting + Press conference will be the Most important Meeting for this whole year in my opinion so There are 2 scenarios 1- Either FED Skip JUNE and Increase Rate in next Month - 2- They incre4ase This month and Keep Higher Rate till first quarter of 2024- Either way they have to Increase Rates as 6 out of 7 of the Fed’s inflation measures are flashing Red Both will push Recession which is Also immanent in my opinion MY PERSONAL OPINION:- we see DXY down till FOMC and than we see RIDE to the Up side In OUR VIP we trade Any thing long / Short what ever Market Gives EITHER WE GO UP AND THAN DOWN LEVELS |OR| WE GO DIRECTLY DOWN FROM THIS RANGE
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
FED Rate Hike Speculation; BOJ Maintains Accommodative StanceMay Inflation Data Release to Heighten Expectations of Rate Hike Next Tuesday, the United States is set to unveil its May inflation figures, impacting the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy decision. Market forecasts anticipate a year-on-year increase of 4.2% in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), while the core annual CPI is expected to rise to 5.6%, surpassing the previous 5.5%. These figures, if realized, are likely to intensify speculation of an imminent rate hike prior to the Fed's announcement on Wednesday. Should the outcome exceed expectations, substantial volatility across the foreign exchange market is expected. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve's decision will contribute to market noise, with a pause in rates expected but accompanied by a hawkish message signaling the possibility of further rate hikes in the near future. In the event that the Fed confirms its commitment to monetary tightening, fears could trigger a stock market collapse while bolstering the US dollar. Bank of Japan (BOJ) Maintains Accommodative Stance Amid Economic Uncertainties The Bank of Japan (BOJ) recently signaled that inflation has exceeded initial projections. However, this observation does not automatically trigger an interest rate increase. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized the need to maintain highly accommodative policies until sustainable wage growth accompanies rising prices. Consequently, the BOJ is anticipated to maintain its current target short-term interest rate of -0.1% and a 0% cap on the 10-year bond yield, consistent with its yield curve control (YCC) policy. Furthermore, the BOJ is expected to adopt a slightly pessimistic view on exports and production due to weakened demand from the United States and China. In April 2023, the BOJ highlighted stagnation in exports and production. Nonetheless, as the central bank of the world's third-largest economy, the BOJ remains optimistic that the country will experience a moderate recovery driven by increased post-pandemic consumption, offsetting the impact of weak exports. Inflation is projected to surpass the BOJ's initial expectations. Analysts warn of the risks posed by rising inflation and the potential economic slowdown in Japan due to a severe overseas recession. While the BOJ will not issue new inflation projections next week, it is likely to signal during Governor Ueda's briefing session that inflation is exceeding initial projections. Analysts anticipate that the BOJ will revise its inflation forecast upward during its next quarterly review, considering the persistent price increases by many companies. However, the BOJ's forecast of core consumer inflation for the current fiscal year, at 1.8%, remains below analysts' projection of 2.6%. USDJPY Technical Analysis: Bullish Consolidation Amidst Channel, Watch for MFI Indicator and Resistance Bounce The USDJPY pair is currently experiencing a period of consolidation within a bullish channel, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. However, traders should closely monitor the Money Flow Index (MFI) indicator for a reading of 80, as it could signal a possible shift in market sentiment. Until the MFI remains below 80, the price has the potential to sustain its bullish trajectory. Nevertheless, caution is advised as a pullback towards the bearish direction may occur if the price encounters resistance and subsequently bounces off that level. In such a scenario, a bearish phase could ensue, with the price targeting the support line of the bullish channel.
by DNP-FX
2