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EUR/USD possible bullish reversal today or tomorrow Building permits and housing starts were better than forecast, this may cause some selling in EUR/USD.... The HTF daily chart is both short term and intermediate term bullish, However the market is currently trading within a HTF 4hr timeframe gap which was formed last week... i am anticipating that the market will fill this 4hr gap due to todays bearish EUR/USD news, once it fills the gap i believe that the market will continue upwards to at least test the current daily timeframe short term high possibly due to the pause on interest rate hikes from the FED (interest rates > building permits) i feel as if interest rates currently have a stronger higher timeframe influence on the market... I AM LOOKING FOR A LONG ENTRY THIS WEEK, ANY SHORTS WILL BE INTRADAY POSITIONS, I AM LOOKING TO SWING LONGS FOR THE WEEK/INTO NEXT WEEK.... THESE ARE MY PERSONAL THOUGHTS, THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE!
Long
by TDcharts
EUR/USD flirts with 1.08 leading into FOMC and ECB meetingsEUR/USD broke above the 1.0800 handle yesterday thanks to a weak US inflation report, yet price action now finds itself back beneath that key level leading into today's FOMC meeting (and tomorrow's ECB meeting). But as the pair has risen over the past two weeks, it may take a particularly dovish meeting from the Fed to drive it materially higher. Therefore, we're looking for evidence of a swing high and for a move back towards the 1.0700 handle. A bearish divergence is forming on the RSI 4-hour chart and we've identified two resistance zone around the 1.0800 and 1.0860 area we'd consider fading into, or seeking evidence of a swing high. Otherwise, a stop above 1.0800 could suffice should momentum turn lower without breaking back above 1.0800.
Short
by CityIndex
Bulls circle USD/JPY ahead of the FOMC meetingWhilst the US dollar has mostly retraced over the past couple of weeks against FX majors, it has held its own against then Yen. In fact, momentum is now turning higher after forming a triple bottom ~139 and breaking above a retracement line. The most traded price during the prior consolidation is 139.55, which could provide a level of support if prices retrace ahead of its next leg higher. Take note that overnight implied volatility has blown out ahead of the FOMC, so be prepared for some volatility before the next major move takes place.
Long
by CityIndex
EUR/USD surges after ECB rate hikeEUR/USD is trading at 1.0948 in Europe, almost unchanged on the day. On Thursday, the euro surged 1.05% in the aftermath of the ECB rate hike. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%, the highest level since 2001. The markets were not surprised by the move but ECB President Lagarde's hawkish comments following the rate announcement may have surprised some and the euro responded with massive gains. In her press conference, Lagarde said that barring a material change, it was "very likely" that the ECB would continue raising rates in July. Lagarde dampened any thoughts of a pause, even though the eurozone economy remains fragile and growth is expected to be weak. Headline inflation has been falling sharply in the eurozone, as energy prices have fallen. This is positive news, but the ECB is more concerned about core inflation, which is a better gauge of where inflation is headed. The core rate, which excludes energy prices, has been stickier than expected. Inflation has also cooled due to the ECB's rate tightening, but the current rate of 6.1% is far too high for the central bank, which is likely to hike again in July. The Federal Reserve dramatic decision on Wednesday contained two important aspects. First, the Fed took a breather and held rates after 10 straight rate increases. Second, the Fed signalled that the pause did not indicate the end of the current rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed was projecting two more hikes in the second half of the year. Fed Chair Powell reiterated in his press conference that the inflation battle "has a long way to go" and there is every indication that Powell will keep hammering away with rate hikes until inflation falls to the 2% target. There is resistance at 1.1050 and 1.1147 1.0922 and 1.0854 are providing support
by OANDA
CDR SUPPORTLast time with base and supply support and then "worked out" (xD) them based on the price behavior pattern. Today's behavior from the structure break line is determined from early September / early October, confirmation with fibonacci (bottom {0} + peak{1} ) that the price is applied to the creation. Additional fuel for speculation is a special Cyberpunk DLC, and I believe that if the promotional materials are encouraging, there is a better chance that what I wrote will happen. Even if a game will be bad. I assume a stop loss: PLN 94.55 Take profit: Transfer of the local peak PLN 150, PLN 180, PLN 200,
GPW:CDRLong
by kiTajj_
2
GOLD: awaiting the FOMC decisionIn a few hours we will know if FOMC decides to raise interest rates by 25bp or if there will be a pause in monetary policy. Having said that, if we look at 1H chart we still have the same technical structure (see analysis below), which is still valid at the moment. With this in mind it would be great if TVC:GOLD triggered a swing as shown on chart (first bearish then bullish), I say that because I really like the Pin Bar at 1,971 . What will happen on gold market? In the short term it's hard to say, but today's session will certainly be our driver for a few sessions/weeks. PREVIOUS ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (Long term) (Click on Chart below) PRE-FOMC ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheAnonymousBanker
3
EUR/USD Challenges 1.0900 After ECB Delivers Rate HikeThe EUR/USD pair extended gains into a fourth consecutive day on Thursday following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise its main rates by 25 basis points, as expected. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0880 area, recording a 0.7% daily gain, having touched its highest level in a month at 1.0894. The European Central Bank announced its decision to raise the main financing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%. In the subsequent speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde fueled the hawkish narrative as she stated the board is "not thinking about pausing." Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve decided to skip a rate increase on Wednesday after ten consecutive increases. However, the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish words slammed prospects of rate cuts for the remainder of the year. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair's short-term bias is bullish, according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price has managed to climb back above the 20- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and now challenges the critical 1.0900 resistance area. A break above the psychological level could fuel bullish momentum and send the EUR/USD to retest the 1.0970 resistance zone ahead of 1.1000. On the other hand, the 100-day SMA at around 1.0805 is the key support to watch as a drop below would deteriorate the short-term outlook, exposing the 1.0700 zone en route to May's lows at 1.0635.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
USD/JPY - Yen slides to 7-month low after Fed, BOJ meeting nextThe Japanese yen has taken a tumble on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 141.24, up 0.81%. Earlier today, the yen fell as low as 141.50, its lowest level since November. The markets had widely expected the Federal Reserve to pause at the Wednesday meeting, especially after a favourable inflation release on Tuesday. Jerome Powell delivered a hawkish pause, as the rate statement signalled more rate hikes were on the way and the Fed revised upwards its growth and inflation projections for the fourth quarter. As well, the dot plot indicated two more small rate hikes this year. Powell said after the decision that the Fed had not made a decision about the July meeting, in keeping with his stance that each rate decision will be determined based on the data. The markets aren't buying that and have priced in a 71% probability of a July hike, according to CME FedWatch. Inflation is moving slower, but there's still a way to go before the 2% target is achieved and the markets expect Powell to keep his foot on the rate pedal after yesterday's brief time out. The markets will shift their attention to the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday. The BoJ has been an outlier with regard to rate policy, adhering to an ultra-loose monetary policy. The Bank is expected to maintain key policy settings and may comment on the depreciation of the yen. The currency's sharp drop on Wednesday triggered verbal intervention from Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, who voiced the standard line that excessive moves in the exchange rate were not desirable. The government has warned in the past that it could intervene to prop up the yen and made good on its threats in December, stunning the markets. If the yen's slide continues, we can expect more warnings out of Tokyo. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 141.21.  Above, there is resistance at 141.97 There is support at 140.29 and 139.53
by OANDA
Gold's Recovery Falters After Fed's Hawkish SkipGold prices fell sharply and erased intraday gains following the Federal Reserve's decision to skip a rate hike on Wednesday. At the time of writing, the spot price, XAU/USD, is trading at the $1,945 area, little changed on the day, having pulled back from an intraday peak of $1,960 an ounce. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced its decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds unchanged at 5.00%-5.25% following ten consecutive hikes. Although the (unanimous) decision was widely anticipated on the back of cooler inflation figures for May, the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's speech offered a hawkish message and boosted the US dollar. The Fed economic projections showed that most FOMC members anticipate the terminal rate to reach the 5.50%-5.75% range. At the presser, Powell noted that risks of overdoing and underdoing are closer to being in balance and highlighted that rate cuts wouldn't be appropriate this year. This hawkish stance boosted US Treasury yields across the curve, with the 10-year yield rising from 3.78% to 3.85% and the 2-year from 4.64% to 4.80%. The US dollar strengthened, and Gold took a hit as higher interest rates increase the metal's opportunity cost while reducing the demand as a hedge against inflation. From a technical perspective, XAU/USD holds a short-term bearish bias according to indicators on the daily chart. A loss of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1,940 would expose the $1,900 area. On the other hand, a recovery past the 20-day SMA at the $1,960 area is needed to improve the short-term outlook, aiming at the $2,000 level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
Market Reactions to Fed’s “Hawkish Pause” Today the Federal Reserve chose not to proceed with an 11th consecutive interest rate hike, opting instead to assess the effects of the previous 10 hikes. However, the Fed announced that it anticipates implementing two additional quarter percentage point increases before the year concludes. While the pause was largely expected, the fact that policy makers see rates at 5.6% at year-end was what caught the market off-guard. The combination of the pause with the suggestion of two more 25 basis points hikes has been dubbed the “hawkish pause”. Following the decision, stock market closing results were mixed. The Dow Jones closed more than 230 points lower, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq experienced gains of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively. The Nasdaq Composite was primarily bolstered by the gains made in AI-adjacent stocks of Nvidia and AMD. The day began with Bitcoin surpassing $26,000. However, it has since retraced to a 24-hour low of $25,791. Some analysts are predicting an inevitable drop to $25,000 based on recent cryptocurrency news that is dominated by discussions on regulation. Meanwhile, gold prices initially rose to touch $1959 per ounce in the session but later trimmed gains, trading around $1945. The dollar has weakened across the board, with the DXY down 0.32%. The NZD is the biggest mover, rising by more than one percent to a 3-week high of $0.6211. Gains in EUR and GBP were more modest, at +0.39% each.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
🔥 FED Pauzing Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of a couple of minutes ago the FED has announced that they will pauze the interest rates and not hike any further. Since rising interest rates seems bearish for markets, a pauze is often a much more bearish signal. As seen on the lower chart, once the FED pauzes the hiking cycle ('flat mountain top'), it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future. With the most recent pauze, one would be cautious for the future at the very least. Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
SP:SPXShort
by FieryTrading
19
USDCAD SHORT SIGNAL BEFORE FED RATESUSD/CAD faces downside pressure as the Loonie outpaces the decline in the USD Index. The pair has dropped sharply, reaching the support level of 1.3300 after encountering resistance at 1.3320. Upbeat oil prices provide support for the Canadian dollar, as investors anticipate a neutral interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve. This positive sentiment reduces fears of a US recession. Traders should monitor oil prices and the Fed's stance on rates. The Loonie's accelerated decline suggests a bearish sentiment. Overall, there is downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair, but careful analysis of economic and geopolitical factors is essential for informed trading decisions. Nicola, CEO of Forex48 Trading Academy
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
AUD/USD rally continues, Fed decision loomsThe Australian dollar continues to gain ground and is trading at 0.6795, up 0.42%. The Aussie has been red-hot in June, gaining 4.4%. Australia releases the May employment report early Thursday. The labour market has stayed solid despite aggressive rate hikes from the central bank, but there may be signs of cracks. In April, Australia shed jobs for the first time in three months, including 27,100 full-time jobs. The RBA won't be able to pause rates for an extended period unless it is convinced that the labour market is cooling down. The economy is expected to have gained 15,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate is projected to remain at 3.7%. US headline inflation fell to 4.0% in May, down from 4.9% and the lowest level since March 2021. This was positive news, but the decline was driven by a drop in lower food and energy prices. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, fell from 5.5% to 5.3%, a modest drop. Core CPI at its current level is not compatible with the Fed's 2% target, which will likely mean more rate hikes unless the core rate decelerates at a faster clip. The highlight of the week is the Fed rate decision later today. The markets are widely expecting a pause, which would break the streak of ten straight rate hikes. The rate decision may be a foregone conclusion, but the rate statement and Powell press conference could shed some light on what the Fed has planned next. If the Fed stresses that the current tightening cycle is not over, it could dampen risk sentiment and provide some support to the US dollar. AUD /USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6804. Next, there is resistance at 0.6863 0.6729 and 0.6632 are providing support
by OANDA
1
BTC ANALYSIS | FOMC news will decide the next directionBTC ANALYSIS | FOMC news will decide the next direction Ahead of the FOMC announcement in a couple of hours we are in a descending wedge/bull flag pattern that is a key identifier of consolidation and a precursor to a big move. Naturally until there is a break out it is difficult to determine the direction. The FOMC news should be a firestarter to gauge which way we are going to go here. So don't make any impulsive moves just yet and wait for the announcement and a commitment of direction from BTC.
by Kryptochristian
1
EURUSD before FEDCPI data came out yesterday and EURUSD hit the 1.0800 resistance and is holding at those levels for now. Today we await the most important news. At 20:00 Bulgarian time, the FED will announce the decision on interest rates, and 30 minutes later the press conference will begin. Regardless of the decision, we will see large fluctuations and it is advisable to reduce the risk beforehand. The objective remains confirmation of the upward movement here, with possible stops in both directions.
by ForexTrendline
3
Charts Show Market Expects Fed to Pause but Big Resistance AheadTraders, Over 90% of the market is currently pricing in a FED rate pause tomorrow, but beware, the market often moves towards the point of maximum pain. My charts are showing we are at a critical point of resistance as I type this post. The bulls are going to have to conquer 4,370 and confirm it on the daily to convince me that the they are not out of steam just yet. From my perspective and the way I am reading this chart, is that the market may be in for a bit of a surprise pullback here. The blow-off top that I predicted well over a year ago is still currently underway and, IMO, will continue. But the market never goes to any future price point in a straight line. We are due for a pullback. I am not saying this will occur. I am only suggesting that a bit of caution is still very much warranted for the remainder of this week. Here's a look at a schedule of significant events that have or will yet occur and may cause volatility: Tuesday: • US CPI Data • Hinman Docs Become Public • SEC's Coinbase Rulemaking Response • Binance US Hearing Wednesday: • US PPI Data • FOMC Meeting Thursday: • US Jobless Claims • US Retail Sales Data Take care, Stew
U
by stewdamus
5
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
Gold Remains On The Back Foot Ahead Of Fed DecisionGold prices edged lower for a third day in a row on Tuesday, even though lower-than-expected US inflation data cemented expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from hiking rates on Wednesday. At the time of writing, gold spot price, XAU/USD, is trading at the $1,945/oz area, 0.59% below its opening price and printing the third daily decline in a row. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% in May, below the expected increase of 0.2%. The annual inflation rate eased from 4.9% to 4.0%, hitting the lowest level in over two years. The Core CPI advanced 0.4%, in line with expectations, and the YoY rate slowed down to 5.3% in May from 5.5% in April. Although as the knee-jerk reaction US yields tumbled, weighing on the greenback, they've regained the composture with 2-, 5- and 10-year yields quoting above their opening levels during the American afternoon. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision and update economic projections. Following the latest series of US economic data, markets expect the central bank to remain on hold this meeting, keeping the federal fund target range at 5.00%-5.25%, and resume rate increases at the July meeting. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair holds a short-term slightly bearish bias, according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price is testing critical support at the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at around $1,940. The loss of this level would point to further declines targeting the $1,900 level. On the other hand, a recovery of the 20-day SMA at $1,960 would ease the immediate pressure and pave the way to a retest of the $2,000 psychological level.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBP/USD rebounds on strong UK job numbers, US inflation dropsThe British pound has pushed higher today, courtesy of a strong employment report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.64%. The UK labour market remains robust, and today's employment numbers were higher than expected.  The economy created 250,000 jobs, up from 182,000 crushing the consensus of 162,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, down from 4.0% and below the consensus of 4.0%. As well, average earnings including bonuses jumped to 6.5%, above 6.1%, which was also the consensus. The hot numbers will be a major disappointment for the Bank of England, which was expecting the labour market to show signs of cooling off after 12 straight rate hikes. The jump in wages may pose the biggest concern for the BoE, as high wage growth is a key driver of inflation, which remains very high at 8.7%.  Governor Bailey testifies today before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and the committee members are likely to grill Bailey on the latest job data. US inflation has been heading lower and the trend continued today. Headline CPI for May fell from 4.9% to 4.0%, just beating the consensus of 4.1%. The core rate dipped from 5.5% to 5.3%, as expected. The Fed's tightening policy has succeeded in pushing inflation lower, but the question is whether the Fed feels that inflation is dropping fast enough. Today's inflation data has the markets buying all into a pause at Wednesday's Fed meeting. The probability of a pause has soared to 99% according to CME's FedWatch, compared to 75% prior to the inflation release. There are Fed members who favour more rate hikes and the expected non-move on Wednesday could be a "hawkish skip" in which the Fed signals that it is taking a breather but more rate hikes are coming. There is resistance at 1.2657 and 1.2734 1.2513 and 1.2436 are providing support
by OANDA
JPY RAISING OR DOLLAR HAVENJPY is in a technical correction and is reaching local support at 139.9. I think this FOMC meeting officials will skip the rate hike and project hawkish sentiment for the next meeting. Some other reasons for dollar strength have also subsided. A lot of this trade is dependent on the idea, that US inflation is going to be flat or lower then expected. This will be revealed when CPI reports. Nothing much has changed for the JPY, except for higher inflation than usual. BOJ probably will continue its fiscal policy as is. What do you think? Let me know in the comments below.
Short
by tsmarts