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Are you dripping into your 401k yet?Are you dripping into your 401k yet? Not bad area to start dripping in imo for longer term positioning. Dovish powell, in reality it was all stated before and thats why we've had the market really for weeks/months softening rate hikes - the real question is when they will actually STOP! Now, we are at key resistance area, I like the next area of resistance 4200-4300. I'd appreciate any pull back for ES & NQ key tip: The market is forward looking Trade your own plan TJ
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Trade_Journal
The Debt Ceiling AgreementThe debt ceiling is a limit set by the U.S. Congress on the amount of debt that the federal government can have outstanding. This debt is primarily made up of two components: debt held by the public (like U.S. Treasury bonds held by investors) and intragovernmental holdings (like those in the Social Security Trust Fund). From a financial perspective, the debt ceiling is significant for several reasons: 1. Creditworthiness of the United States: The U.S. government is seen worldwide as an issuer of risk-free assets, primarily because it has never defaulted on its debt. If the debt ceiling is not raised in time, it could potentially lead to a default, shaking the world's confidence in U.S. government securities. This could increase the interest rates that the U.S. has to pay to borrow money in the future. 2. Global Financial Markets Stability: U.S. Treasury securities are used as a benchmark for many other types of credit and are widely held by financial institutions around the world. A default could cause significant upheaval in these markets and potentially lead to a financial crisis. 3. Economic Recession : A default could lead to severe economic consequences. It could cause a sharp decrease in government spending (since the government couldn't borrow to finance its operations), which could in turn lead to job losses and potentially a recession. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of this risk in the case of the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. 4. Budgeting and Planning: The debt ceiling also has implications for how the government budgets and plans its finances. When the debt ceiling is reached, the Treasury Department has to use "extraordinary measures" to keep the government funded, which can create uncertainty and inefficiency. 5. Political Tool: While not strictly a financial point, it's worth noting that the debt ceiling has often been used as a political tool. Lawmakers may refuse to increase the debt ceiling without certain concessions, such as spending cuts or policy changes. This can lead to financial uncertainty, as was the case during the 2023 debt ceiling negotiations. The negotiations that led to the agreement were marked by considerable compromise. President Biden, for instance, noted that the agreement represented a compromise where not everyone got what they wanted but was nonetheless an important step forward1. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, despite opposition within his own party, committed to passing the bill within 72 hours of its introduction on the House floor. This commitment was a testament to the urgency felt by lawmakers due to the looming threat of a potential default on the U.S. debt obligations. The agreement was a product of compromise and necessity, driven by the urgent need to avoid a default on U.S. debt obligations. It included a two-year budget deal holding spending flat for 2024 and imposing limits for 2025, effectively reducing spending as Republicans had insisted. This was in exchange for raising the debt limit for two years, until after the next election. The deal would boost spending on the military and veterans' care and cap spending for many discretionary domestic programs. However, the specifics of these spending caps remained subject to further debate between Republicans and Democrats. Conclusion The 2023 U.S. debt ceiling negotiations showcase the intricate dynamics of American politics and its intersection with economic policy. They underscore the importance of compromise in a divided government and the challenges that ideological divergences within parties can pose to such compromise. These negotiations and their outcome also highlight the potential economic implications, such as the risk of default, that can arise when political disagreements hinder prompt fiscal decisions.
FRED:GFDEGDQ188SEducation
by financialflagship
6
EURUSD BULLISH REVERSALThe dollar index fell 0.41% to 103.93, with the highest since March 20 at 104.54, after rising 0.1% yesterday, the sixth profit in a row, marking the longest such streak of daily gains this year amid high pricing for another Fed rate hike in June. Following such data and bullish remarks by Fed officials, chances of a 0.25% Fed rate hike in June rose from 40% to 62%. Still 15 days ahead of the rate decision. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long
by legacyFXofficial
More Rate Hikes on the MenuCBOT: Micro 30-Year Treasury Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement in principle late Saturday to raise the nation’s debt limit and cut federal spending, ending a rollercoaster round of negotiations. The current national debt ceiling is $31.4 trillion. The tentative deal would raise it by $4 trillion through the end of 2024. In return, it would cap annual discretionary spending for two years, keeping non-defense spending levels flat. Future Fed Rate Actions With a US default and potential economic disaster being averted, the Federal Reserve (Fed) would likely stay on its course of fighting inflation. On May 26th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) up by 0.4% in April to an annual rate of 4.4%. This surpassed both the market consensus of 3.9% and the March PCE of 4.2%. The Core PCE excluding food and energy is 4.7%, exceeding March level by 0.1%. The surprising rebound in inflation indicates that the Fed’s job is not done, even after it hiked the Fed Funds rate seven times last year and three more times in 2023. CME FedWatch Tool gauges the probabilities of rate hikes based on 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data. It shows that, on May 28th, the odds of a 25-bp hike in June FOMC meeting at 64.2%. The probability of raising another 25 bps in July is 27.1%. The futures market does not expect the Fed to cut interest rates before the end of the year. The interest rate market is in disarray, and this may present new trading opportunities. Mortgage Rate Tops 7% On Sunday, May 28th, the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.15%, rising 16 basis points from last week, according to Bankrate.com. This is an annual increase of 1.61%: the 30-year fixed was 5.54% on May 26th, 2022; Prior to the Fed rate hikes, it was only 3.65%-3.85% in February 2022. MORTGAGE30US, the mortgage rate data tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, records 6.57% on May 25th. Meanwhile, CBOT 30-Year Micro Yield Futures is quoted 3.988% for its May contract last Friday. What does this mean? The 30-year duration interest rate spread between the riskless Treasury rate and a risky mortgage rate is now 258 basis points. For comparison, in September 2021, the same spread was only 80 bps with a 2.1% Treasury yield and a 2.9% mortgage rate. The spread has more than tripled in the past two years. When the Fed started raising rates last year, both Treasury yield and mortgage rate rose. The trends diverged in October. In the mortgage market, banks continued to raise lending rates in response to the actual increases in the cost of capital. In the financial market, “Fed Pivot” expectations weighed on Treasury prices. As the Fed lowered the rate increases from 75 bps to 50 bps and then 25 bps, 10- and 30-Year bond yields fell, while 1-Month and 2-Year yields rose, creating a negative yield curve, or the so-called inverted yield curve. Why Treasury Yield Needs to Catch Up In hindsight, mortgage bankers are proven to be right, while the rate cut forecast by bond investors is premature. With the new twist in inflation data, both bond yield and mortgage rate have the potential to go up further in the coming months. Treasury bond yield has some “catching up” to do as investors adjust their expectations. Here is my logic: Firstly, raising the debt ceiling opens up trillions of dollars of new government borrowing. By the rule of supply and demand, a high demand of money will raise its price, all else constant. Treasury bond yield is the price the government paid to borrow money; Secondly, the last-minute deal on debt ceiling helps avoid a potential economic crisis. The housing market is cooling but unlikely to crash any time soon. This ensures that the higher mortgage rates are here to stay; Thirdly, the large interest rate spread created an arbitrage opportunity for lenders by borrowing from the bond market to fund the mortgage operations with the same maturity; Therefore, the 30-year Mortgage-to-Treasury spread could narrow in the future. Since mortgage rate is not likely to fall, the gap could be closed by a higher Treasury yield. We could express the view of high Treasury yield expectation by establishing a long position in CBOT 30-Year Micro Yield Futures. The June contract 30YM3 is quoted 4.000% last Friday. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 index points, which equates to $4,000 at current quote. CME Group requires an initial margin of $300 per contract. Current Fed Funds target rate is 500-525 bps. Hypothetically, if the Fed raises 25 bps in June, and 30-Year Treasury Yield goes up by the same amount, a long futures position could gain $250. This would be equivalent to an 83% return, excluding commissions. Long Futures would lose money if the yield falls, by $10 for each basis point movement. The July contract 30YN3 will begin trading this week. I would monitor the opening price to determine if it is still quoted at a discount - below short-term Treasury rate and mortgage rate. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:30Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
Debt ceiling aside, watch the dollar and central bank meetings!As the debt ceiling discussions draw to a close, the dollar's rally indicates that markets have largely priced in this event. The focus now returns to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its notably hawkish stance. Fed officials' recent statements and fed fund futures, which are pricing in another rate hike in the upcoming meeting, suggest it might be the right time to reassess the dollar pairs. Two weeks ago, we discussed the USDCNH pair, which made a swift upward move. Interestingly, the correlation between USDCNH and USDAUD has been increasing, and USDCNH has been a leading indicator for the last few moves, with USDAUD following its trend shortly after. To understand why, let's look at the AUDCNH as well as the USD. The moves in these pairs seem to be largely driven by the USD, as the AUDCNH has remained range-bound since 2022. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is scheduled to meet on June 6th and is expected to maintain its policy, while the Fed will meet on June 13th and is expected to hike rates. This divergence in monetary policies could further strengthen the case for a USDAUD rally. Current yield differentials continue to favour the USD carry trade and this trend appears set to continue as the Fed is expected to raise rates while the RBA remains on hold, widening the yield differentials. With the Fed poised for another rate hike and the RBA expected to maintain its policy stance, along with the dollar's strengthening and the USDCNH leading the AUDUSD pair, we could express our market views via a risk-managed trade long on the USD and short on the AUD. To set up this position, we can take a short position on the Micro AUD/USD futures, with stop-loss orders placed at 0.673 and take-profit orders at 0.627. A Micro AUD/USD futures contract represents 10,000 AUD, with each point move in AUD equalling USD 10,000. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
Short
by inspirante
3
Macro Catalysts Looming over BTCThere are several macro catalysts looming that are expected to play out in the next days and next couple of weeks. - DEBT Ceiling - FEDNOW launch - SEC vs Ripple FED and US TREASURY - DEBT Ceiling The United States Treasury is going broke, the FED is broke and banks are crumbling. The market crash actually started back in September 2019 when the yield curve inverted (www.investopedia.com). The "Debt ceiling" cannot be raised indefinetly and at some point US will most likely have to default unless they reach a deal like they did in 2011. Image 1: fred.stlouisfed.org The FED is basically a bank that has assets and liabilities. Their profits are funnelled into the US government. Since August 2022 they have recorded over $60 billion in losses. Image 2: Image 2 The balance sheet of the Treasury shows how much money the US government has. After the COVID printer went crazy the balance sheet reached $1.8 trillion and has now plummeted to $100 billion. The US government is the ultimate PONZI, in order to pay their debts they need to keep borrowing. To make it worse the borrow estimates for Q1 2023 where about $500 billion but ended up being double that at about $1 trillion. This goes to show how the US is no longer in control and cannot predict what is to come. Image 3: www.bloomberg.com Bloomberg did a piece on Gold and assets that according to their survey will do well if US defaults. Data is based on 670 participants. Interesting to see that Bitcoin is considered to be a good BUY in that event. During a financial crisis, commodities such as Gold, Silver and Platinum have been the "go to" assets along with the YEN and Swiss Franc. It seems like Bitcoin is moving from a Risk-On asset to more of a commodity. FEDNOW Launching www.federalreserve.gov Another important upcoming catalyst is the FEDNOW banking system which goes live July 1st. This is kind of a precursor to CBDC. The question here is, how well will this function and is there any risk of bugs? All software is vulnerable, and a small bug can lead to huge implications because banks will not be able to move money if a bug happens. It is important that the system runs smoothly because on the same date another major catalyst is at play. - LIBOR to SOFR transition. LIBOR (London Inter Bank. Overnight Rate) is a group of banks that determines the interest rate on loans, this has been done in London as per the LIBOR The US wants to move to SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) , they want to have more control. We are talking about approximately $650 trillion worth of assets that will have to migrate. The rate on the SOFR is set by the Overnight Rates. Taking the FEDNOW and SOFR together, if a bug happens with the FEDNOW software, banks will not be able to move money. This would mean that the Rates will skyrocket. SEC vs RIPPLE - Hinman documents cointelegraph.com Another potential catalyst is the 2.5 year long case between SEC and Ripple. Recently Ripple convinced the court to force the SEC to reveal the Hinman documents. Hinman is a former SEC director who reportedly stated that ETH is not a security because "it is sufficiently decentralized." But since the documents are sealed it is uncertain what is exactly ment by this statement. Ripple believes revealing this document can help them win their case. Ripple winning this case could potentially be one of the most bullish catalysts to have impacted the crypto market. The public release was supposed to be June 6 but is now set for June 13. Important Dates: JUNE 1 Yellen states that it is likely that the treasury will not be able to satisfy all obligations as early as June 1 JUNE 13 - Hinman Documents made public - Inflation figures for May released JUNE 14 - FED announcement on interest rates decision JULY 1 - LIDOR to SOFR migration - FEDNOW launches
by Suneater69
U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
Gold to test $1950 supportXAUUSD remains vulnerable around intraday low of near $1960 as it drops for the second consecutive day while reversing Friday’s corrective bounce to $1980. The immediate resistance near $1965 suggests further downside of the gold price. A strong break below $1950 major support opens a path to March swing low of $1935. The resistance close to $1977 can challenge the XAUUSD upside. Overall, Gold is bearish below $1900 and $2000 and the rest of $1950 is highly expected. Gold may consolidate before a move to the downside. FOMC, high US data news and the Fed will also influence the next move.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDPIPSMAKER
EURUSD TankingAs the USD builds momentum, and XXXUSD UDDXXX crosses come under pressure, I'm especially interested in EUR that was slammed across the board last week. We smashed down through the 109 level so I'm expecting a retracement to that level and then a push lower. to around the 1.075 level. This is a 1:6 Trade, good odds for me. For me recent EUR strength has been down to a) USD weakness b) Hawkish speak from the ECB but for me the US economy is performing better, they're already at higher interest rates, the FED looks like they'll not cut this year now, and the dollar is due a bounce. If I'm right, a big side effect is EURUSD drop, which is why I'm short on this pair!
Short
by Finchcliffe
2
Decoding the Structure of the Federal Reserve System 🏦 If you've ever wondered how the U.S. monetary system functions and who runs the show, keep reading. In this article, we will break down the structure of the Federal Reserve System and help you understand how it operates. 🏦 The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It was created in 1913 by the Federal Reserve Act and is an independent entity within the government. The Fed has a three-part structure, including the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). 1️⃣ Board of Governors: The Board of Governors is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System. It consists of seven members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate for 14-year non-renewable terms. One person is designated by the President as Chair and another as Vice-Chair. The Board's main function is to set monetary policy, supervise and regulate banking institutions, and maintain the stability of the financial system. 2️⃣Federal Reserve Banks: There are 12 Federal Reserve Banks located throughout the United States. Each Federal Reserve Bank serves a specific geographic district and is responsible for carrying out the policies set forth by the Board of Governors. The Federal Reserve Banks are overseen by a board of nine directors, six of whom are appointed by banks in the district, and three by the Board of Governors. In addition to overseeing the banking system, the Federal Reserve Banks also provide services to financial institutions and the U.S. Treasury. These services include processing and clearing checks, storing currency, and distributing new currency. 3️⃣Federal Open Market Committee: The FOMC is the most powerful body within the Federal Reserve System. It is responsible for setting monetary policy, specifically the target for the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans. The FOMC is made up of the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year to analyze economic data and determine appropriate policy decisions. Their decisions impact not only the banking system but also the overall economy. For example, if the FOMC decides to raise interest rates, it will become more expensive to borrow money, affecting everything from mortgages to credit card payments. Conclusion: The Federal Reserve System is a complex organization that plays a critical role in the U.S. economy. Its structure is designed to ensure checks and balances across its three branches so that no one entity has too much power. While the Board of Governors sets policy and oversees the entire system, the Federal Reserve Banks carry out those policies and provide essential services to the financial system. The FOMC, on the other hand, is responsible for setting monetary policy, affecting the interest rates that impact our daily lives. Understanding the Federal Reserve System is essential for anyone wanting to understand the U.S. economy. Knowing how the Fed operates can help individuals and businesses make informed decisions about their finances. With this knowledge, you can better navigate the ups and downs of the economy and protect your hard-earned money. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
6
💵THE WORLD IN DEBT💵 ☑️The fact that the whole world is in massive Debt that can not be repaid is a buzzphrase that was around for like 20 years already. 20 years passed and nothing bad has happened, so what to worry about? In fact an entire political and economic movement called MMT or a modern monetary theory emerged claiming that government debt does not matter and that we can, you guessed it, print as much as we need(kinda) ☑️But the size of the debt itself was never really and issue so long as the government or a big company could service the debts. That is if their cashflow was positive enough to cover the interest payments on the debt. Now however, as the FED is raising rates, this is an issue. ☑️And its not the USA who’s pile of debt we need to be worried about(they are borrowing in the currency they can print themselves, remember?) but rather the rest of the world and the companies. The majority of developing countries don’t have the internal capital required for development, so they need to borrow on the international financial markets in Dollars. And these counties are now facing a perfect storm of a higher cost of new borrowings in Dollars, lower revenues from foreign trade due to recession(and yes we are in a recession, Wake up) and the massive energy and food costs due to the war in Ukraine and the problems caused by the supply chain crisis. ☑️Most big public companies aren’t doing great either. The share of listed companies with the debt servicing costs higher than the profits is now more than 25% and if we exclude the accounting and financial engineering shenanigans, it is save to say that this share is close to 30%. ☑️So the third of the economy is outright insolvent. Multiple countries will either default soon or will at least be plunge into civil and economic unrest and go the way of Sri-Lanka, Pakistan and others… And Jerome Powell said that he aint stopping and that the Fed funds rate should go up by at least 2 percentage points more. So instead of the collapse of the USA, we are likely to see a chain reaction debt crisis In the rest of the world unless the FED changes its mind… I Hope you guys learned something new today✅ Wish you all Best Of Luck👍 😇And may the odds be always in your favor😇 Dear followers, let me know, what topic interests you for new educational posts? explanation
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by SignalProvider
4
DXY Weekly Forecast | 22nd May 2023Fundamental Backdrop The Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease from 50.2 to 50.0 which shows contraction in economic health. The Flash Services PMI is also expected to drop from 53.6 to 52.6. The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Thursday. The FED will talk about future interest rates which was previously indicated to be on pause. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance at 103.500 Next resistance at 105.000 Minor support at 102.765 Major support at 102.200 Idea With the Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI expected to drop, it could cause the DXY to drop further towards the 102.700 minor support. If the FED chooses to pause or indicate pausing of interest rates, it can cause the DXY to drop even further towards the 102.200 major support level. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYShort
by OlympusLab
USD/CAD - Will retail sales weigh on the Canadian dollar?The Canadian dollar is trading quietly ahead of a key retail sales report later today. USD/CAD is trading in Europe at 1.3484, down 0.13%. The Canadian consumer is holding tightly to their wallet, which is not all that surprising in the current economic climate. Inflation ticked higher in April, rising from 4.3% to 4.4%. Add in high interest rates and it's not hard to sympathize with consumers who are struggling with the cost of living. The April retail sales report may show that things are getting worse - headline retail sales is expected to slow to -1.4%, down from -0.2% in March, and the core rate is expected to fall from -0.7% to -0.8%. Not exactly a winning recipe for economic growth. A decline in today's report could unnerve investors and send the Canadian dollar lower. The Bank of Canada will not be pleased with the slight increase in inflation, although the core rate, which is a more reliable gauge of inflation trends, did move lower. The BoC meets next on June 7th and there is only one more tier-1 release before the meeting, that being GDP. If retail sales contracts for a second straight month as expected, there will be more support for the BoC to continue to hold rates at 4.50%, where they have been pegged since March. It's a bare economic calendar in the US today, with no data releases. The markets will have a chance to focus on Fedspeak, with Jerome Powell and two FOMC members delivering public remarks. Just a few weeks ago, the markets had priced in a pause at the June meeting at over 90%. That has changed to a 66% chance of a pause and a 33% chance of a hike of 25 basis points, according to CME's FedWatch. That downward revision is due to a consistently hawkish message from the Fed and a solid US economy. USD/CAD is testing support at 1.3479. Below, there is support at 1.3394 1.3644 and 1.3729 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
DXY Forecast | Pre Fed Chair Powell Speaks | 19th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Unemployment Claims decreased from 264K to 242k, far better than the forecast of 253K. This signals an overall healthier economy. Fed Chair Powell will be speaking later on today on the concerns around the status of the US debt ceiling. Technical Confluences Near-term resistance at 103.500 Next resistance at 105.000 Minor support at 102.765 Idea If Fed Chair Powell's speech is hawkish, we could see DXY break the near-term resistance at 103.500, before heading towards the next resistance at 105.000. Alternatively, if the speech is dovish, we could see price head back down towards the minor support at 102.765 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXY
by OlympusLab
USD/JPY - Yen sinks to 6.5 month low, is 140 next?The yen woes continue, as the currency has plunged a massive 400 points over the past week. In Thursday's North American session, the yen is trading at 138.52, up 0.60% on the day. USD/JPY hasn't been at such high levels since November 2022. All eyes will be on Japan's Core CPI release early on Friday. This is a key inflation indicator and could move the dial of the yen. The markets are expecting Core CPI to rise to 3.4% in April, after two straight readings of 3.1%. Inflation remains a key issue for the Bank of Japan. The new Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has continued the Bank's ultra-accommodative policy but has also hinted at taking steps towards normalization, such as adjusting the yield curve control (YCC) policy if inflation remains sustainable above 2%.  This week's GDP release showed growth in the first quarter was higher than expected, and that could raise expectations that the Bank will shift policy, perhaps in baby steps, in the near future. As for interest rate policy, we're unlikely to see any tightening before 2024. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on a panel later today, and the markets will be all ears. Powell has remained hawkish, saying that high inflation could result in further rate hikes. Powell has dismissed outright any rate cuts, but the markets still believe that the Fed will trim rates before the end of the year. JP Morgan weighed in earlier this week, saying they agreed with the markets that the Fed would cut rates, as the economy was likely to tip into a recession. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 138.42. Above, the next resistance line is 139.58 There is support at 137.08 and 136.42
by OANDA
1
$NQ1! - Busy week ahead! CME_MINI:NQ1! - Busy week ahead! We've got a busy calendar ahead of us and remember it's first day of the month - May a Lot of US Data! 1. ISM 2. JOLTS 3. ADP 4. FOMC 5. NFP Now that's a busy week and I know for some, they will be stepping back and not trading during a hectic week ahead, but I do feel there will be plenty of opportunities. Now, banking sector is at the key spot light ahead of this week mentions of First Republic Bank will be acquired by JPMorgan after rescue efforts fail. It's not first time this year, we've heard a bank go under, and unfortunately that's part of the cycle as rates head higher, a lot of sectors get hurt, look at real estate and this is what I mentioned months prior - I well recommend researching more in depth. Keep in mind FED want a 2% target for inflation...Expectation is for the FOMC to lift rates by 25bps at its May meeting, now the real question is will they pause after this hike or carry on, whilst we got credit tightening... Now technically looking at NQ Highs: 13391 Lows: 12787 At the moment we've got Kangaroo action until a break to either side - If we are to break the highs, I expect next area of interest to be 13660 areas. However, we are to break the lows, I expect 12481 areas. NQ has held relatively well within the conditions we are in, interesting times ahead. Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Trade_Journal
USD/JPY - Japan's GDP improves but yen slipsThe Japanese yen is on a four-day losing streak and is in negative territory on Wednesday. In the North American session, the yen is trading at 137.39, up 0.74% on the day. Japan's GDP in the first quarter was higher than expected. The economy grew by 1.6% y/y, after a 0.1% decline in Q4 2022 and easily beat the estimate of 0.7%. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded by 0.4%, up from 0.0% in Q4 and above the estimate of 0.1%. One key driver behind the spurt in growth was personal consumption, as demand continues to rise now that the country has reopened. The services sector remains strong but manufacturing continues to struggle. On a sour note, exports fell 4.2% in Q4, as demand for semiconductors and automobiles declined. The uptick in growth means that sustainable inflation could stay above 2%, and that could prod the Bank of Japan to take steps toward normalization, such as adjusting its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The BoJ has said it would consider tightening policy if inflation is sustainable above 2%, but any shifts in policy are likely to be small, especially if the yen remains weak. The BoJ announced it would conduct a policy review which could take a year or more, and I would not expect the BoJ to raise rates before 2024. Federal Reserve members continued to remind listeners that more rate hikes are possible if inflation stays high. The Fed has also tried to dampen expectations of rate cuts in the second half of the year. The markets are listening somewhat, as the odds of a rate cut this year have fallen. JP Morgan came out in support of rate cuts on Tuesday, saying that "the market is right to be penciling in cuts", as inflation remains too high and the US was likely headed for a recession. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 137.08. Above, the next resistance line is 138.42 There is support at 136.26 and 135.08
by OANDA
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 17th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop US Retail Sales comes out at 0.4% compared to previous print of -0.7%, highlighting the continued resilience of the US economy. This further supports the hawkish stance from Fed and is bearish for GOLD. Technical Confluences Liquidity building at 1970 where price can potentially tap into H4 support level at 1960 which can serve as a potential target zone Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we are anticipating XAUUSD to continue its bearish momentum to test the support at 1960. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OlympusLab
1
XAUUSD Potential Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop In light of the strong bullish sentiments surrounding the USD recently, price has made a bearish case for GOLD. Sentiments surrounding USD continues to be bullish with Fed maintaining its hawkish stance in the most recent FOMC meeting. Technical Confluences Daily support level at 1959.7 where price can potentially tap into before continuing bullish. Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, GOLD is anticipated to continue its bearish stance in the market and we will be looking out for shorts over the new week. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OlympusLab
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop ECB hiked rates by 25bps most recently. Fed continues to see heightened inflation and maintains its uncompromising hawkish stance. Empire State Manufacturing Index release later on with market pricing in a negative print. Technical Confluences Daily support level at 1.0755 where price can potentially tap into. Price has broken past the daily resistance at 1.0961. Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, EURUSD can potentially continue bearish to the support at 1.0755 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
DXY Weekly Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop Core Retail Sales m/m expected to improve from -0.8% to 0.5% Consumer spending will increase significantly, indicating improved economic activity Unemployment Claims data could be better than expected due to positive CPI and PPI data released last week Friday could be more volatile due to Fed Chair Powell's speech Powell expected to address rising market concern about US debt ceiling Technical Confluences Near term resistance at 102.800 Next resistance at 103.500 Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, we could see price head towards the 103.500 level. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
TVC:DXYLong
by OlympusLab
GOLD → Funadametal factors can bring the price downGold closes this week in the red zone with -0.27%. The metal is in a retracement or technical pullback phase, the target of which could be the support of the 1981 range. Since we have a strong uptrend, we prioritize the scenario to buy gold. The price forms a sideways range of 2048 - 1981. A false break-down of the resistance sets the price down to the area of 2000, and the next target is 1981. The moving averages are showing an active bullish trend. Levels, increasing panic in the market: 2010, 2000: 1981. In these areas an increase in volatility and a surge in volumes is possible. This week we are expecting rather strong news, which can ambiguously influence the price: 16.05 Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the U.S. retail level, excluding automobiles - analysts expect the index to strengthen. Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. - Analysts expect the index to strengthen 17.05 Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of goods and services from the consumer's perspective-analysts expect the index to strengthen. 18.05 Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who applied for unemployment insurance for the first time last week - analysts expect the index to strengthen The Philadelphia Fed's Manufacturing Activity Index measures the relative level of overall business conditions in Philadelphia - analysts expect the index to strengthen 19.05 Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018-Feb. 2026) to deliver speech - analysts are beginning to refrain from their forecasts, but continue to expect a rate hike. European Central Bank President's Speech. Basically, if expectations hold true, the dollar could strengthen quite a bit, meanwhile gold will show the opposite trend. It is very likely that the price could test the 1981 and even 1950 area. But! The fundamental analysis showed many times that the published data can be very different from what was expected. Strong support: 2010, 2000, 1981. Strong resistance: 2025, 2032, 2048. I think the gold will continue the correction to 2000 and then to 1981 this week. But as long as the bullish trend persists, I will expect gold to continue to show a bullish direction over the medium and long term Regards R. Linda!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by RLinda
22