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Copper - Markets are waiting for new moves to start?!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. An upward correction of copper will provide us with a good risk-reward selling position. If the downtrend continues, we can buy copper in the next demand zone. The Monthly Metals Index (MMI) for copper remained largely range-bound, experiencing a slight decline of 0.65% from December to January. Meanwhile, copper prices continue to react to the new U.S. administration and potential shifts in trade policies. Ahead of President Trump’s inauguration, copper prices on the Comex exchange began breaking out of their previous range. By mid-January, copper prices had reached their highest levels since early November. This movement was likely driven by traders anticipating the impact of potential tariffs, some of which could affect the copper market. In contrast, prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw only modest gains, creating a temporary price divergence between the two exchanges. Typically, Comex and LME copper prices move in tandem, making any significant deviations between them noteworthy. Since 2019, the two markets have shown a correlation of 99.76%, with Comex prices averaging a $19 per ton premium over LME prices. However, by January 14, this premium had widened to $402 per ton. It remains uncertain whether this premium will persist in the coming years or revert to historical levels, as seen in previous instances. Historically, such price divergences have been temporary. One notable example was a short squeeze on Comex in late May, which marked the end of the Q2 2024 rally in base metals. During this period, the price gap between LME and Comex surged to $688 per ton, with Comex copper prices reaching a record high of $11,257 per ton. However, this spread quickly narrowed due to shifts in trade flows toward the U.S. market. Although Comex copper contracts attract similar market participation as LME, lower inventory levels make them less liquid. Consequently, when stockpiles decrease, Comex prices become particularly susceptible to sudden surges. Another factor contributing to price divergence was the October port strike, which led to a significant increase in Comex prices. Before the three-day strike began, Comex copper prices had already risen sharply, pushing the spread to $292 per ton until mediators brokered a resolution. Market volatility remains a key risk for copper prices as traders await more details on which products and countries will be affected by new trade barriers. This uncertainty could either drive further price increases or trigger sharp declines if reality fails to align with market expectations. Some of the tariffs proposed by President Trump are likely to serve as negotiation tactics, meaning they may not be fully implemented or could be abandoned if alternative trade agreements are reached. Meanwhile, reports suggest that the Trump administration is considering a phased approach to tariff implementation, which may help mitigate market reactions. A closer look at Trump’s latest stance on China indicates a willingness to de-escalate tensions and increase engagement. However, his previous trade policies were highly aggressive, often involving heavy tariffs on Chinese imports.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERShort
by Ali_PSND
Australian dollar extends losses on soft Aussie CPIThe Australian dollar is down for a third straight trading day and has declined 1.3% this week. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6228, down 0.37% on the day.  Australia's annual inflation rate dropped to 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024 from 2.8% in Q3. This was below the market estimate of 2.5% and was the lowest reading since Q1 2023. Electricity prices were sharply lower due to an energy bill rebate and services inflation dropped to 4.3% from 4.6%, its lowest level in three quarters. On a quarterly basis, CPI remained unchanged at 0.2% in Q4, below the market estimate of 0.3%. The Reserved Bank of Australia's trimmed mean CPI, a key indicator of underlying inflation, slowed to 0.5% q/q in Q4, lower than 0.8% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 0.6%. Annually, trimmed mean CPI fell to 3.2%, compared to a revised 3.6% in Q3 and below the market estimate of 3.3%. The soft inflation report has raised expectations that the RBA will lower rates at the Feb. 18 meeting, with the market pricing in a quarter-point cut at 80%. That would bring the cash rate to 4.10%, its lowest since Oct. 2023. Today's inflation report has added significance as it is the final tier-1 event prior to next month's rate meeting. Investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's rate announcement later today, although it would be a massive surprise if the Fed did not maintain the current benchmark interest rate of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed has cut rate three consecutive times, including a jumb0 half-point chop in September 2024, but the resilient US economy has stalled plans to aggressively lower rates further and currently the Fed is projected to cut rates only once or twice in 2025. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6228. Below, there is support at 0.6204 0.6262 and 0.6286 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
BTCUSDT Trade LogBTCUSDT – Short Setup into Bearish FVG Context & Rationale: Price is pushing into a rising channel near a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), aligning with a bearish signal. Expecting a potential rejection, especially if upcoming macro news or Fed commentary adds downside pressure. Trade Idea (Short): – Entry: Enter short inside or near the 4H FVG region. – Stop: Tight stop above the FVG boundary (risking 0.5% of account). – Target: Look for a 1:2 or better risk-to-reward ratio, aiming for key structure lows. Risk Management: This is a counter-trend play against the recent rally. If price closes above the FVG zone or invalidates the channel, be prepared to exit promptly and reassess.
Short
by Fondera
XAUUSD - Gold awaits the Fed meeting!Gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling marked with the target of the bottom of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position. Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that the anticipated interest rate cuts could be delayed if Donald Trump’s second-term tariffs take effect and drive inflation higher. Speaking with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC, he stated: “I have been saying for some time that inflation is far more persistent than we initially thought. The key question now is how tariffs will impact inflation.” He further added: “Tariffs are unlikely to help in reducing inflation. Therefore, I do not expect rates to drop as quickly as many anticipate.” With Trump’s trade policies in play, the risk of rising inflation is high, and a major clash between Trump and the Federal Reserve over interest rate cuts seems inevitable. Such tensions could negatively impact the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, Scott Bessant, the newly appointed U.S. Treasury Secretary, is proposing a gradual global tariff plan starting at 2.5%, which will increase monthly and could reach up to 20%. This strategy aims to give businesses time to adjust to the new economic landscape. The Financial Times reported this plan, citing anonymous sources for details. At the same time, the U.S.Senate has confirmed Scott Bessant as Treasury Secretary with a majority vote. This decision comes as Trump imposes a 25% tariff on imports from Colombia, reinforcing his aggressive trade policy stance. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is set to conclude today, and it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, analysts argue that gold markets are now focusing more on Trump’s policies rather than short-term aggressive monetary measures. Gold prices rallied after Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. In a video address to global business leaders and policymakers, he urged central banks worldwide to cut interest rates. Trump stated: “I am strongly calling for an immediate rate cut, and this must happen globally.” Economists note that Trump’s remarks contradict the current economic reality, as a relatively strong economy continues to fuel persistent inflation. In recent weeks, the Federal Reserve has warned consumers about growing upside inflation risks and is seeking to shorten the current monetary easing cycle. Ahead of this week’s policy meeting, markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady, with only one rate cut projected for this year. Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that the divergent views between Trump and the Federal Reserve have created uncertainty, benefiting gold as a safe-haven asset. He further stated that the recent bullish momentum in the gold market suggests that the $2,800 price level may just be the beginning. Hansen concluded: “As long as this uncertainty persists, I see no risk of overheating. Any downside break could trigger fresh buying interest.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
EURUSD - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The EURUSD currency pair is located above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. Maintaining the drawn ascending channel will lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards the channel ceiling. A correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with its next opportunity to buy it. Donald Trump’s remarks about imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have sparked concerns among European companies. A report by Bank of America (BofA) highlights dozens of European firms that are vulnerable to these tariffs due to their supply chain dependencies and revenue exposure. Among these companies, the Italian automaker Stellantis stands out. According to the report, Stellantis operates 16 supply chain links in Canada and derives 47% of its total revenue from North America. Similarly, the German auto giant BMW has 18 supply chain links in Canada and generates 26% of its revenue from the United States. In the energy sector, the UK-based utility company National Grid, with a market value of €58 billion, has a significant presence in the U.S., where 50% of its assets and 54% of its revenue originate. Although its tangible supply chain exposure in Mexico and Canada is relatively low, its extensive operations in the U.S. make it highly susceptible to the negative impacts of these tariffs. Eurozone Bank Lending Survey – January 2025: • Credit Standards: In Q4 2024, corporate credit standards tightened due to rising perceived risks and reduced risk tolerance. • Mortgage Loans: Credit standards for household mortgages remained unchanged, but lending conditions for consumer credit tightened further. • Loan Demand: Mortgage loan demand surged significantly, while corporate loan demand remained weak. According to analysts at Standard Chartered, financial markets are currently overly focused on Donald Trump’s economic policies, potentially overlooking the risks associated with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision today following a two-day meeting. It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain within the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, investors are keen to find clues regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Based on market pricing, expectations suggest a 40-basis-point rate cut by December. A key unknown factor influencing this outlook is Donald Trump’s policies. He has recently called on the Fed to lower interest rates. Additionally, his tariff policies, which include imposing high tariffs on both allies and competitors, could further drive inflationary pressures. As a result, the Fed may proceed cautiously with its rate-cut cycle. However, Trump’s administration has not yet implemented widespread tariffs, though he has threatened to do so. Meanwhile, some Fed officials have recently signaled a more hawkish stance. There is also speculation that the Fed may seek to assert its independence at the beginning of Trump’s new presidential term by resisting his demands. If the Fed takes such a position, Trump may respond aggressively, which could further heighten market uncertainty.
Long
by Ali_PSND
WTI: Will oil return to the upward trajectory?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable reward for risk will be provided to us. A valid breakdown of the drawn downtrend line and preservation of the channel will pave the way for oil to reach the drawn ranges. Under the pressure of imminent sanctions planned by the Trump administration and the debts Iran now owes to China, the country has begun offloading crude oil that had been stored in Chinese warehouses for years. This oil, shipped to China between 2018 and 2019 but not officially declared in Chinese customs records, was kept in isolated, pre-designated storage facilities. With storage costs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, Iran is now obligated to cover these expenses. So far, 5.4 million barrels of oil have been removed from a Chinese port, transported by a total of four tankers. According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current supply policy in its meeting next week. This decision contradicts the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged oil producers to increase output to lower prices and exert more economic pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Under the current plan, oil supply restrictions will remain in place for this quarter and will gradually ease starting in April. Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order to initiate the development of a “next-generation” missile defense system in the United States. This system, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, is designed to protect the U.S. from ballistic missile attacks, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other modern aerial threats. According to the released information, the executive order aims to establish an advanced space-based missile defense system capable of detecting and neutralizing missiles launched toward the U.S. Conceptually, this resembles Israel’s Iron Dome, which has been used for years to intercept and destroy rockets fired from Gaza. The U.S.government has already invested billions of dollars in developing Israel’s Iron Dome, and the American military possesses its own missile defense systems. The order describes missile attacks as a “catastrophic threat,” but no details have been provided regarding the project’s costs or timeline. Developing a comprehensive missile defense system for a country as geographically vast as the U.S. is a highly complex and costly endeavor. Additionally, the emergence of next-generation missile threats, such as hypersonic missiles that travel at extremely high speeds, presents significant technical challenges. This indicates that the project will require substantial investment and time for completion.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
USD/JPY: Will the Fed or BoJ Dominate the Tug of War?The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown both resilience and vulnerability in recent trading sessions, shaped by competing factors from monetary policy shifts to global economic developments. On the positive side, the U.S. dollar remains underpinned by Federal Reserve rate decisions, with market expectations of steady rates in the near term supporting its strength. Tariff threats from the U.S. administration further bolster the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly as external economic pressures persist. Additionally, the pair has demonstrated an ability to recover from lower levels, such as rebounding to 155.50 during Tuesday's Asian trading, aided by softer Japanese service-sector inflation data. However, the Japanese yen has also gained momentum due to the Bank of Japan’s recent 25 basis point rate hike, which reflects a confident stance on inflation and wage growth trends. This decision has increased the yen’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, exacerbating pressure on the USD/JPY pair, particularly as global uncertainties and shifts in risk sentiment encourage investors to diversify into safe havens like the yen and the Swiss franc. Market sentiment surrounding U.S. economic vulnerabilities, including concerns over tariffs and a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, has further weighed on the dollar. Traders are now pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this year, a factor that could erode the dollar’s appeal if realized. Overall, while USD/JPY has displayed moments of strength, the competing influences of U.S. dollar dynamics, Japanese yen strength, and global market sentiment create a volatile environment where traders must remain vigilant of economic data and central bank decisions.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
SWING TRADE SETUP ON EURUSD We had a nice move to the upside yesterday following a shift on the 1H timeframe, Hope some of you were able to catch the move to the upside. If not there is another setup that I am looking at. This is a swing setup and if played out I expect for TP to be hit within the week. The main thing to keep in mind is that we have interest rate decisions for both the FED and ECB. Depending on how the numbers come out this setup will stay valid or EURUSD will break below the invalidation point and continue it's move to the down side. Good risk management is key with these news events.
by Keyserfx
Gold: Under Attack, Key Support in DangerThe gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices undergoing a correction after approaching multi-month highs. Currently, XAU/USD is trading around $2,740, below the key resistance at $2,790, as recent declines reflect a mix of profit-taking, technical pressures, and macroeconomic factors. Recent selling has triggered a natural correction after prices neared significant resistance levels, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been scaled back, strengthening the US Dollar and putting further pressure on gold prices. Algorithmic trading has also amplified the declines. Market sentiment has been impacted by comments from the US President regarding tariffs, which have boosted the dollar and reduced demand for gold as a safe haven. Additionally, weak PMI data from China in January has indicated economic contraction, fueling global risk sentiment and further weighing on gold. Despite the recent drop, gold previously benefited from a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, which pushed prices near record highs. However, trade concerns and the recent strengthening of the dollar have reversed this trend. Technically, gold finds provisional support around $2,730, although further bearish pressure could push it toward $2,700 or lower. The key resistance at $2,790 remains challenging to breach without positive macroeconomic momentum or a weaker dollar, while $2,730 acts as the first defensive level, followed by $2,700, which could serve as a stronger base. Traders should focus on upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's rate decision on January 29, which will directly influence the dollar and, consequently, gold prices. A more hawkish stance could intensify pressure on gold. The European Central Bank’s decision on January 30 could also shift global sentiment, while US Q4 GDP data may play a role, as strong growth figures could further support the dollar and limit gold’s upside potential. Gold is currently in a correction phase, and while key resistance stands at $2,790, support near $2,730 remains crucial. If this support level breaks, gold could face additional downside pressure, though signs of a global economic slowdown or dovish signals from central banks could spark a recovery.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
XAUUSD - Gold Enters the Last Week of January!On the 4-hour timeframe, gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises to the previous ATH, we can look for selling positions at the ceiling indicated by the target of the midline of the ascending channel. A correction of gold towards the demand zone will provide us with its next buying position. Last week, the gold market showcased one of its most stable and impressive performances in recent months, seemingly adapting to the shocks and uncertainties introduced by the newly established U.S. administration. Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, highlighted that given global markets’ reaction to the unpredictability of the new U.S. president, there appear to be few barriers to new record highs for gold. He stated, “At this point, we can set aside technical and fundamental analysis. Gold is acting as a safe haven against the chaos stemming from the new U.S. government. No one knows what the next statement or action will be.” According to the latest U.S. Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report released by S&P Global, the services sector index dropped to 52.8, marking its lowest level since April of last year and falling below market expectations of 56.5. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, exceeding the forecasted 49.7. The composite PMI also decreased to 52.4. Although confidence in the services sector has declined from its 18-month peak in December, it remains the second-highest level recorded in the past year.Additionally, the services sector experienced the fastest rate of job creation in 30 months. Input costs and selling prices across sectors also rose at the fastest pace in four months. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at S&P Global, commented on the data, stating that U.S. businesses began 2025 with optimism about the new administration’s policies. In particular, growth expectations in the manufacturing sector have increased due to anticipated government support. He also noted that while GDP growth slowed slightly in January, sustained business confidence suggests this slowdown may be temporary. The rise in hiring rates, driven by improved business outlooks, is another encouraging sign. However, Williamson warned about increasing inflationary pressures. Companies reported that rising supplier costs and higher wages, driven by labor shortages, have led to price increases. If this trend continues, concerns about inflation could intensify, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt more hawkish policies. Rich Checkan, President and COO of Asset Strategies International, predicted that gold might experience a price correction in the short term. He explained, “While the long-term trend for gold remains bullish, thanks to the mismanagement of fiat currencies, I anticipate a price correction this week. Gold has approached historical highs today, but uncertainties surrounding the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could prompt investors to take profits, leading to a temporary price pullback.” This week, officials from major central banks worldwide will convene to make critical decisions. These meetings come as discussions about President Trump’s tariff threats resurface. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Canada (BoC) are all scheduled to hold their monetary policy meetings this week.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
XAGUSD - Silver on the verge of a big week?!Silver is trading in its ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. If the correction continues, we could see a break of the channel bottom. A consolidation above $30.8 would provide a path for silver to rise to the supply zone, where we can sell at a risk-reward ratio. According to the annual report by StoneX Financial, silver has been highlighted as one of the top-performing metals among both precious and industrial metals in 2025.Benefiting from its dual nature as a monetary and industrial asset, silver is set to gain from rising gold prices and strong industrial demand. In the report, Rhona O’Connell, Head of Market Analysis at StoneX, and Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Base Metals Analyst, forecasted that silver, alongside copper and tin, will outperform other metals in 2025. Despite strong performance in 2024, with a 22% growth, silver is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025 as the top-performing metal. This projection is based on robust market fundamentals and promising future prospects that have attracted the attention of investors. Part of this growth stems from the long-term outlook for the solar industry, although new U.S. government policies might slow this trend. Investment in silver is expected to remain strong, potentially even outpacing gold. While gold is predicted to peak this year, silver is anticipated to keep growing, with a price target of $33 by the end of 2025. Copper and tin have also garnered attention due to their critical roles in the transition to green energy and digitalization. On the other hand, aluminum has been identified as a metal requiring cautious investment. The report notes that silver has historically been recognized as a precious metal due to its history as a form of currency and its use in jewelry. According to the authors, “Silver’s relationship with gold has always played a key role in its price behavior, but in reality, this relationship is more complex.” They added, “Throughout much of last year, silver behaved like a precious metal during bullish trends and like a base metal during bearish ones. Statistical analysis confirms this. During U.S. economic recessions, silver’s price performance and correlation with gold and copper show that, more often than not, silver traded more in line with copper than gold. In inflationary periods, the opposite was true.” StoneX attributes this to two primary reasons. They explained, “Firstly, the nature of silver’s supply, which is predominantly derived as a byproduct of base metals or from industrial scrap, prevents it from having a clearly defined equilibrium price in the market. Secondly, a small group of investors sees silver as an accessible way to capitalize on gold’s price volatility.” They highlighted that “President-elect Trump’s suggestion that Mexico and Canada could face tariffs was enough to unsettle the market, even if these were likely negotiating stances rather than definitive decisions. Mexico accounts for approximately 25% of U.S. silver imports, and Canada accounts for 10%. Just the idea of such tariffs was enough to drive silver prices higher. However, as is often the case with silver, this movement was short-lived. This metal remains one of the most vulnerable to rapid and reactive price swings and should always be approached with caution.” They concluded, “Silver will continue to respond to any significant activity in the gold market and will also see further transitions this year due to the ongoing fundamental investment deficit growth. While it may face headwinds from European recession and potential oversupply of solar cells, its long-term outlook remains bright, likely continuing to attract investors and speculative funds.” Meanwhile, Lee Hardman, an analyst at MUFG Bank, noted that the depreciation of the dollar, following Trump’s statement that he would “prefer” not to impose new tariffs on China, might be limited. He argued that Trump is still likely to implement higher tariffs. Trump has called for lower interest rates and a weaker dollar to support the U.S. economy. However, his policies of higher tariffs, stricter immigration controls, and tax cuts, if enacted, “are likely to bolster U.S. yields and the dollar for a longer period.” In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that he “prefers” not to impose new tariffs on China, suggesting the possibility of a trade deal.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Is Nasdaq on track to record a new ATH?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index corrects towards the supply zone, we can look for further short positions on Nasdaq with a risk-to-reward ratio. Nasdaq’s position in the demand zone will provide us with short-term buying conditions. President Trump announced that the U.S. government plans to invest $500 billion in artificial intelligence infrastructure. This project, carried out in collaboration with companies such as OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank, aims to create 100,000 jobs.Trump also pledged to support the project through emergency declarations. OpenAI, along with SoftBank, Oracle, NVIDIA, and ARM, announced the start of their collaboration in technology development. This partnership includes Microsoft’s commitment to Azure, with plans extending until 2030. Microsoft confirmed that it will maintain its strategic partnership with OpenAI and participate in the Stargate project. This collaboration includes new agreements granting Microsoft priority rights to utilize the new capacity. Additionally, Microsoft will leverage OpenAI’s intellectual property (IP) in its products, such as Copilot. This week’s economic calendar is dominated by major events related to central banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada will announce their interest rate decisions on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank will follow on Thursday. Additionally, several significant economic reports are expected. On Monday, data on new home sales for December will be released. On Tuesday, reports on durable goods and the Consumer Confidence Index will be published. On Thursday, the U.S. GDP for Q4, weekly jobless claims, and pending home sales data will be announced. Finally, on Friday, the PCE index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation), along with personal income and spending reports, will be released. It is projected that the U.S. economy will grow at an annualized rate of 2.6% this quarter, compared to 3.1% in the previous quarter. If the data surpass expectations, the likelihood of the Fed adopting expansionary policies may decrease. Similarly, inflation data from the PCE index and consumer income and spending reports on Friday will play a crucial role in shaping expectations for rate cuts. Unlike the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada, the Federal Reserve is expected not to reduce interest rates. The robust U.S. economy and inflationary pressures have left the Fed with limited room to lower borrowing costs. This situation existed even before Trump’s administration and the Republican-led Congress implemented tax cuts and tariff hikes. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that the Fed has no predetermined path and may raise interest rates if new government policies lead to higher inflation. However, inflationary pressures have recently eased and could continue to decline in early 2025. Christopher Waller, a prominent Fed official, recently hinted at a possible rate cut in the first half of the year, but market reactions to his comments were muted, with only minor dollar weakening following news of Trump’s tariffs. Several major companies are set to release their quarterly financial updates this week. Among them are some members of the Magnificent 7, as well as leading firms in technology, energy, finance, and manufacturing. Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla are scheduled to report on Wednesday, while Apple will release its financial information on Thursday. Tesla’s report comes as Elon Musk, its CEO, has taken on a role in President Trump’s administration. The company’s recent vehicle delivery data fell short of analysts’ expectations. Microsoft’s planned report follows last week’s announcement of a $500 billion AI initiative, which includes Microsoft-backed OpenAI. Meta’s report comes as the company raises its investment forecasts for emerging technologies such as AI. Meanwhile, Apple’s report is being released amid analysts’ downgraded ratings due to concerns about demand for its new iPhones.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
BoJ hikes rates, yen pares gainsThe Japanese yen gained as much as 0.8% earlier today but has failed to consolidate these gains. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.03, dwon 0.02% on the day. The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate by 25 basis points earlier today, as expected. This brings the policy rate to 0.5%, its highest level since October 2008, during the global financial crisis. The Japanese yen climbed sharply after the decision but was unable to consolidate these gains. The BoJ has been signaling that it planned to raise rates at today's meeting, although the BoJ tends to surprise the markets and a rate hike, while expected, was not a given. The BoJ statement expressed hope that this year's wage negotiations would result in strong wage increases, as was the case last year. Governor Ueda has said in the past that he would raise rates provided that inflation was driven by higher wages, which would show that inflation was sustainable. Wage growth has been moving higher and this resulted in today's rate hike. Japan's inflation rate has been moving higher and the December inflation report, which came out today, showed core CPI climbed to 3%, up from 2.7% in November and in line with the market estimate. The core rate has hovered above the BoJ's 2% target for 2.5 years and at today's meeting, the BoJ upgraded its inflation outlook to above 2% until 2026. Predictably, Governor Ueda didn't provide a timeline for the next rate hike at his post-meeting press conference, but a May rate hike is on the table if the wage negotiations result in higher wages and inflation does not weaken unexpectedly. Another key factor in the timing of the next rate hike will be President Trump's trade policy. Trump had promised to levy tariffs on US trading partners on his first day in office but has delayed the tariffs until at least Feb. 1. The BoJ will want to see which direction Trump's trade policy is going before raising rates again. There is support at 154.78 and 153.27 156.49 and 158.00 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Brent - What will Trump's oil policies be?!Brent oil is in the 4-hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its medium-term ascending channel. We will look for oil selling opportunities on the supply zone. If the $75 level is broken, we can see the continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, we can buy in the demand zone with a risk-reward approach. When Donald Trump launched his election campaign, he threatened to impose 25% tariffs on America’s largest trading partners unless they addressed their trade surpluses with the U.S. Analysts described this idea as risky. However, Bloomberg has reported that, while this strategy is far from subtle, it has proven effective. This threat turned importers into U.S. customers. Energy importers from Asian countries began purchasing more crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, aiming to appease Trump before he took any action on tariffs. Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, told Bloomberg that U.S. trading partners view LNG purchases as a tool for negotiating tariffs with the Trump administration. He added that since last November’s election, orders for U.S. energy shipments have risen. Shortly after the election, Trump specifically suggested that the European Union should buy more LNG from the U.S. to offset its significant trade surplus. At the time, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated there was no reason why the EU couldn’t replace Russian LNG with American liquefied gas. However, her statement was perhaps not the most well-considered. The EU’s preference for Russian LNG and its hesitation toward American LNG primarily stems from pricing issues. Even this year, the region’s purchases of Russian LNG have reached record levels. As reported by the Financial Times earlier this week, the EU is highly sensitive to price considerations. According to an EU official, price remains a critical and determining factor. Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, previously remarked that Europe’s demand for LNG could align with America’s eagerness to sell more.He added that discussions on this issue are feasible. Trump has consistently emphasized his interest in deals that benefit the United States above all. On his first day in office, Trump revoked Biden’s executive order that halted permits for new LNG export capacity. This decision will expand U.S. export capacity over the next four years, potentially lowering prices depending on demand levels. The World Trade Organization’s chief warned that reciprocal tariff retaliation could result in a double-digit reduction in global GDP, a scenario that would have catastrophic consequences.
BLACKBULL:BRENTShort
by Ali_PSND
Bank of Japan expected to raise rates, yen calmThe Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.25, down 0.16% on the day. All eyes are on the Bank of Japan, which meets early on Friday. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points which would bring the cash rate to 0.50%. The BoJ has said that it will raise rates if it sees higher wage growth, which would indicate that inflation is sustainable. BoJ policymakers have expressed confidence that wages are moving higher and Deputy Governor Himino said last week that many firms plan to raise wages at least as much as last year. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the BoJ's rate statement. The tone of the statement could be dovish as BoJ policymakers are concerned about President Donald Trump's threats to levy trade tariffs as early as Feb. 1, a move which could destabilize the financial markets. The BoJ will have to be cautious as it gauges the 'Trump factor". Another factor supporting a rate hike is the poor performance of the Japanese yen, which has declined around 9% in the past three months. The Federal Reserve is sounding more hawkish and might raise rates only once or twice this year. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines again, the yen could fall further. Overshadowed by the BoJ meeting, Japan releases December core CPI. Japan's core inflation rate has been climbing higher and is expected to climb to 3% y/y, up from 2.7% in November which was a three-month high. The core rate, which is closely watched by the BOJ, has hovered above the central bank's target of 2% for over two years. USD/JPY is testing support at 156.20. Below, there is support at 155.68 157.04 and 157.56 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
XAUUSD - Gold Awaits Weekend Data Releases?!Gold is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold rises towards the channel ceiling and supply zones, we can look for short positions targeting the channel midline. The gold market has kicked off 2025 with one of its best starts since 2023 and is on track to achieve its strongest monthly performance since September. Prices are currently testing the high range near $2,750 per ounce. A fund manager noted that this robust start to January could signal another strong year for the precious metal, even after gold recorded a 27% price increase last year. In his 2025 outlook report, Eric Strand, founder of the precious metals-focused AuAg Funds, projected that gold prices will surpass $3,000 per ounce this year. He stated: “We expect gold to break the $3,000 barrier during the year and possibly reach even higher levels by year-end, with a realistic target of $3,300.” Strand’s bullish target represents a 20% increase from current levels. Strand suggested that the new Trump administration might usher in a period of more accommodative monetary policies and larger government stimulus programs. In his report, he explained: “Both Donald Trump and Elon Musk have built their empires on extensive borrowing while driving forward at full speed. This approach will likely persist for the next four years as governments strive to avoid an economic downturn at any cost to create a positive boom. However, the price of this strategy will be monetary inflation. Such an inflationary boom creates a financial environment where commodity prices, including gold, rise significantly.” As U.S. national debt has reached unprecedented levels, now exceeding $36 trillion, Strand highlighted that the United States is not alone in facing this challenge. He emphasized that governments worldwide continue to increase spending through deficit financing. He noted: “The amount of money circulating in the system is increasing without generating substantial real growth, which naturally means each unit of currency becomes less valuable.” Meanwhile, gold prices remain near all-time highs against major currencies such as the euro, British pound, Chinese yuan, Canadian dollar, and Australian dollar. Gold continues to stand out as a safe-haven global asset as the trend of de-globalization accelerates. Countries are moving away from dependence on the U.S. dollar and diversifying their currency reserves. (De-globalization refers to the process of reducing or reversing global integration, including less free trade, restricted capital flows, reduced interdependence, and a rise in nationalist and local policies.) Strand stated: “We have seen the beginning of de-globalization, and it appears to be gaining momentum, particularly as the U.S. seeks to impose conditions that serve its own interests. Policies such as ‘America First’ and high tariffs may benefit the U.S. economy, but they also undermine trust in the country as a leader in free-market economies.” He added: “This new phenomenon is likely to create inflationary pressures and may lead to waves of currency devaluation in other nations as they attempt to offset the effects of tariffs.”
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
USDCHF - Looking for a Weaker Dollar?!The USDCHF pair is trading in its ascending channel on the 4-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zones, the next long positions in this pair with a good risk-reward ratio will be available for us. Morgan Stanley Investment Bank anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting but is expected to revise its assessment of labor market conditions. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, is likely to emphasize the reliance on data and prevailing uncertainties while keeping the option for a rate cut in March on the table. Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the Fed may revise its description of the labor market from “cooling” to “stable.” This shift reflects recent employment data trends, which have demonstrated consistency over the past 6 to 9 months. According to Morgan Stanley, Powell is expected to reiterate ongoing progress in reducing inflation, highlighting that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. Furthermore, the Fed is likely to delve deeper into balance sheet policies and may signal that the process of balance sheet reduction could soon conclude. Meanwhile, Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, has warned that high government debt could lead to a major crisis. Goldman Sachs, in its analysis of President Donald Trump’s inaugural policy statements, noted that his tariff policies appeared softer than initially expected and currently carry less priority than previously anticipated. The firm also observed that Trump’s rhetoric regarding Mexico and Canada was more aggressive than projected. Goldman Sachs concluded that the likelihood of a global U.S. tariff on all import sectors this year has diminished, thereby reducing the risk of reigniting inflationary pressures. David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, stated that as the new U.S. administration begins its term, the country’s economy appears to be in excellent shape. He also highlighted that key questions regarding tariffs pertain to their speed of implementation and targeted countries. Solomon remarked that tariffs would ultimately lead to a rebalancing of trade agreements over time and that trade policies would directly influence interest rate equilibrium. On the other hand, Thomas Schlegel, the president of the Swiss National Bank, stated that the Swiss franc remains a safe haven asset in global markets, although trade disputes have adverse implications for Switzerland’s economy. He also emphasized that there is no current concern regarding inflation, which remains within the bank’s target range and aligned with cyclical forecasts. Schlegel further mentioned that the possibility of employing negative interest rates cannot be ruled out.
Long
by Ali_PSND
XAUUSD - Gold will continue to rise?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the ceiling of the channel, you can look for positions to sell it towards the midline of the channel. Investments in commodities are expected to remain a reliable hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty in 2025. Specifically, gold and silver are predicted to outperform other commodities. Despite the optimistic outlook for 2025, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, advises investors to be cautious when constructing a commodity portfolio. Gold and silver, which showed strong performance in 2024, remain his top picks. Hansen forecasts that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce this year, representing a 7% increase from current levels. However, he sees greater potential in silver, expecting prices to rise to $38 per ounce, a nearly 30% increase from current levels. He added that his outlook for the market remains bullish. He also highlighted that gold will continue to serve as a key safe-haven asset through 2025. Hansen stated, “Investment demand for metals is increasing due to growing geopolitical uncertainties and global economic shifts. This has driven investors to seek safer assets, a trend that shows no signs of slowing down. Additionally, concerns about rising global debt, particularly in the United States, have prompted investors to turn to precious metals to safeguard against economic instability.” However, Hansen urged investors to remain patient, as the Federal Reserve continues to unwind its accommodative monetary policies. Currently, markets anticipate only one rate cut this year, a significant shift from expectations just a few months ago. The Fed’s hawkish stance could support the U.S. dollar, potentially creating volatility in the precious metals market. Jenny Johnson, CEO of Franklin Templeton, stated that the Federal Reserve is likely to pause to assess the impact of Trump’s policies on the economy.She noted that Trump’s spending pressures could provide a short-term boost to the economy, and his stance on deregulation is favorable for businesses. Ron O’Hanley, CEO of State Street, remarked that he does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates more than twice this year. He also expressed heightened concerns about U.S. debt levels in the medium term.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD: BOE Is Ready for the Big Cut!GBP/USD shows mixed signals, remaining below 1.2350, influenced by economic and political factors in both the UK and the US. After a strong rally on Monday, the pair lost momentum on Tuesday, driven by the recovery of the US Dollar and overall disappointing UK labor market data. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and a slowdown in employment growth weigh on the Pound, despite an annual wage increase of 5.6%. From a technical perspective, the RSI on the 4-hour chart signals a loss of bullish momentum, approaching the neutral level of 50 after being in the overbought zone. Key support levels are located at 1.2230 and 1.2200, while resistances are seen at 1.2350. The Pound is also affected by an uncertain macroeconomic context, with Trump's comments indicating potential tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, supporting a recovery in the Dollar due to its safe-haven status. In the absence of significant US economic data, investor focus shifts to stock market performance: a negative opening on Wall Street could support the Dollar, exerting additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. In the short term, the pair may remain under pressure, with a potential test of key support levels, unless more solid signs of Pound strength or Dollar weakness emerge.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Pound slips as UK payrolls slideThe British pound continues to show sharp swings this week. After a spectacular 1.3% gain on Monday, GBP/USD has reversed directions and is trading at 1.2233 in the European session, down 0.68% on the day. The UK payrolls report, a reliable indicator of employment growth, showed a sharp decline of 47 thousand m/m in December 2024. This was the largest decline since Nov. 2020 and follows a revised -32 thousand in November. The back-to-back declines are a result of the government's new payroll taxes in the budget, which is causing businesses to release workers. Wage growth (excluding bonuses) remains hot and increased to 5.6% in December, in line with the market estimate and higher than the 5.2% gain in November. While the weak employment data will be a headache for the UK government, it supports the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in order to kick-start the flagging economy. The BoE held rates in December and meets next on Feb. 6, with a quarter-point cut priced in at 85%. Inflation has remained sticky and the jump in wage growth is a reminder of the upside risk of inflation. The BoE may be looking at rate cuts in the coming months but it will have to do so cautiously, ever mindful of inflation. In the US, the strong nonfarm payrolls report for December is raising the possibility that the easing cycle may be over. The Bank of America doesn't expect any rate cuts in 2025 and says the risks for the next move are tilted towards a hike. The Fed started the easing cycle with a bang in September 2024, chopping rates by a half-point, but the strong economy means Fed policy makers may have to consider rate hikes in 2025. GBP/USD has pushed below support at 1.2278. and is putting pressure on support at 1.2211 1.2395 and 1.2462 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Yen Strengthens Amid Bearish MomentumThe USD/JPY pair exhibits a clear bearish inclination, driven by a combination of economic and market factors that are strengthening the Japanese Yen and weakening the US Dollar. Currently, the pair has dropped to approximately 155.60, recording a 0.44% loss for the day, with sellers evidently attempting to push the price further toward critical support levels between 154.90 and 153.15. The downward pressure is amplified by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent positive data such as improvements in Japan’s core machinery orders, signaling a recovery in capital expenditure. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the Trump administration contributes to a negative climate for the US Dollar, which is already under pressure from a recent slowdown in buying flows. From a technical perspective, the pair has encountered significant resistance in the 156.55-156.60 region, a level that halted previous recovery attempts and now acts as a key barrier. For a meaningful trend reversal, a sustained breakout above this resistance, followed by consolidation above 157.00, would be necessary to pave the way toward recent highs at 158.00 or even 158.85. However, the likelihood of a downward breakout seems more tangible, considering that the support at 155.25 represents the last defense before a drop toward the psychological level of 155.00 and further toward 154.60 and 153.30. The current market environment, characterized by reduced trading volumes due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, suggests caution for traders, as dynamics could quickly shift with the return of liquidity and the announcement of potential monetary or political decisions in both Japan and the US. The combination of positive economic data for Japan and expectations of higher rates positions the Yen in a place of strength, while the Dollar may continue to struggle without a clear positive catalyst. Holding below 155.00 would be a significant signal for bears, indicating an extended downward trajectory toward deeper support levels.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
XAUUSD - Gold will stabilize above $2700?!Gold is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and is in its ascending channel. If gold climbs to the ceiling of the channel, you can look for positions to sell it towards the midline of the channel. Losing the bottom of the channel will lead to the continuation of the downward trend. The gold market had a strong start to the first full trading week of 2025. However, as the week progressed, optimism among traders grew, with predictions indicating a potential rally in gold prices ahead of Trump’s second presidential term. Nevertheless, the market remains cautious about upcoming developments. Rich Checkan, the president and COO of “International Assets Strategies,” believes: “Unless there are any major disruptions during Monday’s inauguration ceremony, I expect gold prices to remain relatively unchanged next week. Market participants are waiting for more clarity on President Trump’s economic policies and their impact on key economic variables. However, one week is insufficient to see tangible effects, and a longer timeframe is needed for better evaluation.” Bart Melek, the managing director and head of commodity strategy at “TD Securities,” highlighted the potential for higher tariffs and their inflationary effects, predicting a slight dip in gold prices. He stated: “If the new president addresses tariffs, signaling higher inflation, and the Federal Reserve takes a more serious stance on its inflation target, gold prices could decline moderately.” At the beginning of 2025, gold is trading near $2,700 per ounce, while Bitcoin has approached the $100,000 threshold, placing both assets at the center of attention in emerging markets. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, forecasts that a correction in stock markets could drive gold prices above $4,000 this year. He remarked: “Gold reaching $4,000 will eventually happen. The unlimited supply of fiat currencies and the limited supply of gold, similar to Bitcoin, make this likely. However, my concern is that a natural and modest correction in the stock market, which is currently overvalued, could push gold to such levels.” McGlone pointed out that the ratio of stock market value to U.S. GDP is around 2.2x — an unprecedented figure in the last 100 years. He emphasized that even a 10% correction in the stock market could provide the necessary momentum for gold prices to surge.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
Copper - Markets are waiting for Trump's new decisions!Copper is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour timeframe and has left its descending channel. The downward correction of copper will provide us with the opportunity to buy it with the appropriate risk reward. If the upward trend continues, you can sell copper in the next supply zone. In recent days, the value of the U.S. dollar has risen, and Treasury yields have also increased. These developments are primarily driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts this year. President Trump’s promises to raise tariffs, reduce corporate taxes, and deregulate industries have sparked concerns about rising inflation, which was already persistent even before these policies were implemented. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy appears robust, with strong labor market performance in November and December, indicating that the Federal Reserve may not feel pressured to accelerate interest rate cuts. According to projections, investors anticipate that interest rates will decrease by approximately 0.4% by December 2025. This expectation persists despite reports suggesting the new U.S. administration will implement tariff hikes gradually and December inflation data came in lower than expected. The U.S. Tax Foundation estimates that if the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 20% tariff on imports from other countries, the average tariff rate would climb to 17.7%. This would represent the highest level recorded since the 1930s. Trump has pledged to impose steep tariffs on goods imported from various nations; however, economists have warned about the potential consequences of such policies. In a recent Reuters survey, all participating economists predicted that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates within the range of 4.25%-4.50% during its January 29 meeting. Additionally, 61 out of 103 economists expect the rate to decrease to 4.00%-4.25% by March. The survey results also reveal that 65 out of 102 economists believe the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates no more than twice this year (compared to 41 out of 97 in the December survey who held this view). Moreover, 40 out of 49 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast that U.S. inflation in 2025 will likely exceed expectations. Scott Bassant, the nominee for Treasury Secretary in President-elect Trump’s administration, described China’s economy as being in recession. Taking a more pessimistic tone, Bassant labeled China as one of the most unbalanced economies in the world, highlighting the country’s prioritization of military strength and efforts to maintain growth by exporting cheap goods to the rest of the world.
CAPITALCOM:COPPERLong
by Ali_PSND