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Bitcoin Analysis - 7 MayThe price continues to move within the range of $91,700 - $100,400. In approximately 3 hours, the FED will announce its interest rate decision. The expectation is for it to remain unchanged. If it remains unchanged; there could be a horizontal consolidation between 94,990 – 97,500. If a breakout occurs, the upward movement will accelerate; otherwise, there could be a pullback to the 91,781 – 94,990 levels. If the interest rate is reduced; the psychological resistance at 100,400 USDT may be tested, and if surpassed, the target of 109,605 (ATH) comes into play. If the interest rate is increased; the supports at 94,990 USDT and below could be tested quickly. The levels of 91,781 and 85,085 USDT become potential targets. With stronger selling, the support zone at the 2024 ATH level of 73,776 USDT may come into play.
by CryptoSignalAPP
Yen rally ends, markets eyes Fed rate decision and BoJ minutesThe Japanese yen is in negative territory on Wednesday, after a three-day rally which saw it gain 2% against the US dollar. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 143.29, up 0.61% on the day. The Bank of Japan releases the minutes of its March meeting on Thursday. At the meeting, the BoJ held the key policy rate at 0.5% in a unanimous vote. Members cautioned that there was uncertainty over tariffs, which the US was expected to announce in April. Since then, the financial markets have see-sawed in response to President Trump's erratic tariff policy. Japan's export-reliant economy could be hit hard, but Tokyo is already negotiating with the US and hopes to carve out an agreement to cancel or at least mitigate the impact of the tariffs. The Bank of Japan is walking a tightrope, as it wants to continue to normalize policy and raise rates, but is worried about the uncertainty over the tariffs and the real possibility of a global trade war. Bank policymakers are taking a wait-and-see stance, hoping that US trade policy will become more clear. The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to maintain rates at today's FOMC meeting. There's little doubt about the decision but investors will be all ears as to the amount of pushback from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, after President Trump has repeatedly pushed him to lower rates. The markets have priced in a 30% chance of a cut in June, compared to a 63% likelihood just one week ago, according to CME's Fedwatch Tool. We can expect the pricing of a June cut to continue to swing, as the tariff saga continues.
by OANDA
GBP/USD: Is the Bullish Impulse Over?The daily chart shows a significant bullish impulse that encountered strong resistance in the 1.3350 - 1.3400 area, where multiple supply levels and an important institutional selling zone are located. The bearish structure remains intact below this level, suggesting a potential decline towards the key support at 1.3100 - 1.3150. The short bias strengthens with the confirmation of resistance and the formation of a potential reversal. COT Report (USD Index and GBP/USD) USD Index: Non-commercial traders are slightly increasing long positions (+397) while reducing short positions (-128). This suggests a potential recovery of dollar strength, supporting a bearish move on GBP/USD. GBP/USD: Non-commercials have significantly increased short positions (+6,426) and reduced long positions (-2,957), indicating a bearish sentiment. Commercials also show a slight increase in short positions (+5,070), confirming potential weakness in the pound. Retail Sentiment 57% of retail traders are short on GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2916, while 43% are long at 1.3343. This imbalance could indicate a market attempt to capture stops above recent highs before a reversal. Seasonality Historically, the month of May shows a negative performance for GBP/USD. The 5, 10, and 15-year seasonal data indicate a consistent decline during this period, supporting the hypothesis of bearish pressure.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
New Zealand dollar steady ahead of employment dataThe New Zealand dollar is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5970, up 0.05% on the day. With no key events in New Zealand or the US today, we can expect a quiet day for the New Zealand dollar. New Zealand releases the employment report for the first quarter on Wednesday. The labor market is showing signs of weakening, with employment change posting two straight declines. The markets are projecting a slight improvement, with an estimate of 0.1% for Q1. The unemployment rate has accelerated for seven consecutive quarters and is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in Q4 2025. This would be the highest level since Q4 2016 and would support the case for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to lower rates for a sixth straight time at the May 28 meeting. At the April meeting, members warned that the tariffs created downside risks for growth and inflation in New Zealand. The RBNZ would prefer to continue lowering interest rates in increments of 25-basis points in order to boost the weak economy. Inflation is comfortably within the 1-3% target band but there are upside risks to inflation, especially with global trade tensions escalating due to US tariffs. In the US, the Federal Reserve is virtually certain to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5% on Wednesday. The meeting will be interesting as Fed Chair Powell is expected to push back against pressure from President Trump to lower rates. The Fed is likely to remain on the sidelines until the uncertainty over US tariffs becomes more clear. Trump's zig-zags over tariffs has triggered wild swings in the financial markets, but Trump has said some trade agreements will be announced soon. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.5968. Below, there is support at 0.5940 There is resistance at 0.5995 and 0.6023
by OANDA
They Were 84% Short — Here's What Happened Next on GBPAUDThis is not just a simple breakout — this is what happens when data, price action, and psychology align with surgical precision. Today, we entered a long position on GBPAUD directly from a well-defined weekly demand zone. The setup was already technically solid, but what made it exceptional was the alignment of multiple institutional-grade factors: ✅ Weekly demand zone respected to the pip, with proven historical sensitivity ✅ Change of structure on the H1 chart, confirming a short-term reversal from a deeply discounted area ✅ COT data showing a clear build-up of commercial long positions on the British pound ✅ AUD net positioning deep in negative territory, with declining open interest and no signs of reversal ✅ Retail sentiment: 84% of traders short on GBPAUD according to MyFxBook → strong contrarian signal ✅ Seasonality: GBP tends to outperform AUD during May and June The result? A rapid and aggressive bullish impulse that allowed us to move the stop loss to break-even just a few hours after entry. 📌 Current trade status: ➤ Long from the demand zone ➤ SL at BE = zero risk ➤ Monitoring price action above 2.07 for potential continuation 🎯 Mid-term target zone: 2.1150–2.1300, with focus on liquidity clusters and previous inefficiencies as potential magnets. This is how you build trades that are not just reactive, but proactive — based on multiple layers of confluence and edge, not on emotions or noise.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Gold - All eyes on Wednesday 08 May - FED🟡 Gold Traders: Nothing Matters Until Wednesday! ⏳💤 Hey traders! 👋 This week, all eyes are on Wednesday... and everything before that? Mostly noise. Let me break it down for you. 👇 📊 Technical Outlook Gold is chilling above a key resistance level right now. Trendlines suggest we won’t see any major moves before Wednesday unless big news drops. 📰 🕐 Asian session is kicking things off above resistance. If bulls show up there, we could break Trendline 1 (Image below) and head towards the $3300 🎯 target. 📉 RSI across multiple timeframes? Pretty neutral. If Asia trades flat or slightly bearish, gold might range between $3210–$3250. Break below $3201, and things could get shaky... but the European session might push us back above that support. U.S. session on Monday? Likely a sideways snoozefest 😴 (unless surprise news hits). 🎯 Trade Setup (Mon–Wed) I’m looking to play the range between: $3261 (Trendline 2) 🔼 and $3169 (Trendline 4) 🔽 That’s a comfy $90 window I’m aiming to trade before Wednesday's fireworks. 🚀 🔮 After Wednesday – The FED Factor 💣 Here’s the real catalyst: Wednesday, May 7 at 2:00 PM EST – FOMC Rate Decision If the FED cuts rates (not likely, but possible under pressure), gold could tank hard. 💥 I’m talking a potential drop to $3150 or lower 🕳️📉 That’d be a -$90+ move easy. FED has been holding the line 💪, resisting pressure (especially from Trump back in the day), but if the economy flashes red, that rate cut might come sooner than expected. 🧠 Final Thoughts FED paused hikes, but left the door open for 3 rate cuts this year. Until we get more clarity, no strong bullish signals on gold. My bias stays: Bearish unless proven otherwise. 🐻💬 Stay sharp out there, and watch those sessions. Wednesday’s the real deal! 💼📉 And last but not least, look at this and let us know what you think about please: Some would say its impossible but as we know, gold can do everything! ------------------------------------------------------------------------- This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly. Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Wick-Sniper
May 6, 2025 - Markets Hold Their Breath Before Powell SpeaksHello everyone, it’s May 6, 2025 and markets are once again at the mercy of politics, Powell, and presidential mood swings. After a 9-day rally, U.S. markets finally took a breather yesterday, with mild profit-taking ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Investors are caught between two competing visions: Trump’s push for massive rate cuts, insisting inflation is a myth cooked up by bureaucrats, and Powell’s more sober stance acknowledging inflation isn’t dead, the economy is softening, and premature easing could trigger full-blown stagflation. With Friday’s job report stronger than expected, Powell is expected to hold rates steady, staying cautious while tariffs and growth clouds loom. Markets are pricing in a July cut at best, but uncertainty lingers mostly around what Trump might tweet in reaction to Powell’s speech tomorrow night. Meanwhile, despite the 90-day tariff moratorium, the trade war narrative hasn’t vanished. NYSE:F suspended its 2025 outlook, citing $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs and four major risks: disrupted supply chains, retaliatory measures, unclear tax policies, and emission rules. NASDAQ:MAT is also hedging its bets shifting production out of China and pausing forecasts, while begging for zero tariffs on toys “for the kids.” Their stocks dropped modestly after hours. OANDA:XAUUSD surged again to $3,368, as fear and safe-haven demand ticked up. BLACKBULL:WTI rebounded to over $58 following an OPEC statement, helping airline stocks breathe a bit. BINANCE:BTCUSDT continued its meteoric rise, now sitting around $94,400. On the macro front, inflation data like CPI and PPI are being shrugged off everyone’s waiting to see if Powell plays ball with Trump. There’s hope, too, that all this chaos is just Trump’s way of muscling the world into negotiation especially China and if a “deal” emerges, markets could rip higher. Until then, we’re stuck dancing between uncertainty and hope. Asia opened strong this morning, led by China’s cautious optimism. Futures point slightly lower in the U.S., and volatility remains king. The Fed could flip the script tomorrow or keep us hanging. Stay buckled in.
SP:SPX
by SmartApingAI
GOLD - Smart Money Selling, Retail Chasing Longs📉 Technical Context: Price has reacted precisely to the 0.618–0.786 Fibonacci retracement zone between 3,386–3,442 USD, aligning with a clear weekly supply zone and imbalance. The current market structure suggests a potential lower high, with the first target around 3,060 USD, and the second near 2,880–2,900 USD demand. 🧠 COT Report (as of April 29, 2025): Non-Commercials (speculators) cut 18,519 long contracts, signaling waning bullish conviction. Commercials (hedgers) increased shorts by +9,848 contracts, maintaining a bearish contrarian stance. 📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFxBook): 65% of retail traders are short from 3,062, while 35% are long from 3,184 — ideal environment for a bull trap before reversal. 📅 Seasonality (Market Bulls): May is historically weak: 10Y: -9.98% 5Y: -12.21% Strength historically returns in June/July → a correction before continuation is likely. ✅ Conclusion: Technical structure, macro context, and positioning all align for a high-probability short. 📍 Entry Zone: 3,420–3,440 🔒 Stop: Above ATH (3,500) 🎯 Targets: TP1: 3,060 TP2: 2,900
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Australian dollar hits five-month high after Australian electionThe Australian dollar continues to impress and has posted strong gains on Monday. European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6491, up 0.72% on the day and its highest level since early December 2025. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese cruised to a resounding victory in Saturday's national election. Albanese' centre-left Labor Party increased its majority and thumped the Liberal Party opposition. The coalition's defeat was marked by its leader, Peter Dutton losing his own seat. The long shadow of US President Donald Trump was a factor in the election. Dutton adopted right-wing policies such as promising tougher immigration laws and establishing a platform to reduce the waste of public funds. The similarities between Dutton and Trump hurt the Liberal leader as many voters were upset with Trump's 10% tariffs on Australia. At the start of the year, Albanese was trailing badly in the opinion polls. However, he struck a receptive chord among voters on domestic issues such as health care and housing, and benefited from the anti-Trump sentiment, which proved to be a winning recipe. US nonfarm payrolls, a key gauge of the US labor market, dipped slightly to 177 thousand in April, down from a revised 185 thousand in March. This easily beat the market estimate of 130 thousand. The positive unemployment report points to a resilient labor market which remains strong despite the US economy declining in the first quarter. The markets have responded by lowering the odds of a rate hike in June to 33%, down sharply from 60% a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and is virtually certain to maintain the benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.5%.
by OANDA
SPX Running Into Important Resistance At 5780Last week we saw a weaker-than-expected Advance GDP in the first release, which led some to believe Powell might consider cutting rates. But Friday’s NFP came in better than expected. Expectations are no change for the Fed, and I honestly don’t believe they’ll move either. Despite Trump putting pressure on them, inflation is still not at their 2% target, and the job market remains solid—so there may be no real reason to cut yet. They’re watching markets too, and we've seen a pretty strong rebound, so there’s likely no urgency to act now. Also, if they were to cut, it could appear politically motivated due to Trump, and that could seriously damage investor trust in the Fed’s independence. So with that being said, we are wondering if the SPX can find some resistance if FED does not deliver a dovish view at this moment. Well, looking at the price action, it certainly looks overlaping recovery from April low, that can face limited upside near 5780, at April 2nd high. If by Friday, we close above the 78.6% Fib then we may look at wave 3, alt sceario. Grega
VANTAGE:SP500
by ew-forecast
XAUUSD - Gold Trend Before FOMC!Gold is trading above its EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading on its uptrend line. A continued upward move in gold will put it in the supply zone, where it is possible to look for short positions. A downward correction in gold will also open up long positions. Gold traders endured another turbulent week, marked by the second consecutive decline in prices—once again underscoring the market’s acute sensitivity to economic news and developments. Adrian Day, CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, offered a cautiously humorous take on the situation by likening it to the Peggy Lee song that asks, “Is that all there is?” He pointed out that gold has pulled back by over 7% from its recent high in less than two weeks.Although this correction is notable, it hasn’t been deep enough to flush out all short-term traders or weak-handed investors from the market. Day added that rising fears of a U.S. recession—which typically exert early downward pressure on gold—alongside the possibility of easing U.S.-China trade tensions, may limit investment demand for gold in the short term. Concluding his comments, he maintained a cautious stance, saying that further downside remains likely and that his outlook for the coming week is bearish. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump, in a new interview with NBC, addressed several key economic and political issues. He stated that if necessary, the deadline for selling TikTok would be extended, and some tariffs on Chinese goods might become permanent. Nevertheless, he indicated that he is also considering reducing certain tariffs in the future. Trump emphasized that small businesses do not require additional assistance and that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates. He confirmed that Jerome Powell will remain Fed Chair through the end of his term in 2026. He also mentioned potential successors for his own position, naming Vance and Rubio as possibilities. After a week dominated by employment data, the upcoming week will be entirely focused on monetary policy. The centerpiece will be the May FOMC meeting, the Fed’s rate decision, and Jerome Powell’s press conference on Wednesday. While markets broadly expect the Fed to hold rates steady, Powell’s official remarks and answers to press questions—especially following his sharp tone earlier in April—will be under close scrutiny. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will leave its key interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, as policymakers assess how President Trump’s tariffs gradually impact various sectors of the economy. Markets are currently pricing in a potential rate cut starting in July. The Fed’s dual mandate is to maintain low inflation and high employment, and it may face a dilemma if tariffs negatively affect both indicators, as many economists now warn. Immediately following the Fed meeting, senior policymakers including Barr, Kugler, Waller, and Cook will travel to Iceland to attend the Reykjavik Economic Conference. On Friday, they will participate in panels discussing artificial intelligence, labor market trends, and monetary research—topics that could offer insights into the Fed’s long-term policy direction. Simultaneously, traders are also awaiting two key reports: the ISM Services Index for May, due today, and weekly jobless claims figures set for release on Thursday. Together, these reports will help complete the picture of the U.S. economy as critical monetary policy decisions approach.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
Bitcoin - Bitcoin on the Road to $100,000?!Bitcoin is in its descending channel on the four-hour timeframe, between EMA50 and EMA200. If Bitcoin moves downward towards the specified demand zone, we can look for its next buying opportunities. It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy in the demand range. In April, Bitcoin recorded a growth of 14.7%, successfully rebounding from a sharp early-month decline that had dragged its price down to $74,901. This level marks Bitcoin’s lowest price point in 2025 so far. U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with NBC News, responded to growing concerns about a possible economic recession by saying that everything would be “fine.” He referred to the current phase as a “transitional period” and expressed confidence that the U.S. economy would perform “extraordinarily well.” When asked directly if he feared a recession, Trump replied, “No,” though he added, “Anything is possible, but I believe we are headed toward having the greatest economy in our nation’s history.” On the other hand, Ethereum ended April with a 1.58% decline—marking its fifth consecutive month of losses. Over the past year, Ethereum has only seen gains in three months, and it is currently down 36.7% compared to the same period last year. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, announced its intention to invest up to $84 billion in Bitcoin. The funds will be raised evenly through stock issuance ($42 billion) and debt securities ($42 billion). In the first quarter of 2025, Strategy reported a profit of $5.8 billion from its Bitcoin investments, achieving a return of 13.7%. The company has also raised its annual targets, increasing its projected Bitcoin return from 15% to 25% and its dollar profit goal from $10 billion to $15 billion.Meanwhile, the short-term holder profit/loss ratio for Bitcoin has returned to a neutral level of 1.0, indicating balance between coins held at a profit and those at a loss. Historically, this level has often served as resistance during bearish phases. If prices remain above this point, it could signal strengthening momentum and a potential market recovery. Elsewhere, reports indicate that Apple has violated a previous antitrust ruling by continuing to restrict users from accessing alternative payment methods outside of the App Store. The decision, issued by Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers, now requires Apple to allow apps—including those related to crypto and NFTs—to operate without paying fees or seeking special approval. This ruling immediately strips Apple of its ability to collect commissions on out-of-app purchases and prohibits the company from monitoring or tracking such transactions.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
NAS100 - Stock Market, Waiting for FOMC?!The index is above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. I expect corrective moves from the specified range, but if the index continues to move upwards towards 21,000 points, we can look for the next Nasdaq short positions with a risk-reward ratio. Last week, U.S. equity markets experienced $8.9 billion in capital outflows, while equity markets in Japan and the European Union saw net inflows. Additionally, U.S. Treasury bonds recorded an outflow of $4.5 billion—the largest since December 2023. Meanwhile, the gold market witnessed its first weekly investment decline since January. Looking ahead, financial markets are focused on the upcoming earnings reports from major companies across sectors such as technology, healthcare, automotive, energy, and financial services. These reports are expected to significantly influence equity trends, investment strategies, and corporate outlooks. Below is a daily breakdown of key companies set to release earnings this week: Monday, May 5, 2025 The week starts with a focus on the healthcare and biotech sectors: • Before market open: Companies such as Palantir, Ford, Onsemi, and Tyson Foods will report earnings. Palantir and Ford are particularly noteworthy for investors in the tech and auto sectors. • After market close: Healthcare firms like Hims & Hers Health, Axsome Therapeutics, and financial company CNA Financial will report. Tuesday, May 6, 2025 Tuesday highlights several key tech earnings: • Before market open: Celsius, Datadog, Rivian, and Tempus will publish their results. Rivian’s report is especially anticipated due to the intense competition in the electric vehicle space. • After market close: Tech giants like AMD and Arista Networks will release earnings, along with Marriott from the hospitality sector. Wednesday, May 7, 2025 A packed day for earnings reports: • Before market open: Reports from Uber and Teva are expected, along with ARM Holdings, a key player in semiconductors. • After market close: AppLovin, Unity, and Robinhood will release their reports—representing digital gaming, software, and fintech respectively. Thursday, May 8, 2025 This day centers on digital health, cryptocurrency, and e-commerce: • Before market open: Peloton and Shopify will report. Shopify’s performance is particularly critical in the online retail sector. • After market close: Crypto firm Coinbase and online sports betting platform DraftKings are in focus. Friday, May 9, 2025 Fewer companies will report, but some are of strategic interest: • Firms like 1stdibs, Ani Pharmaceuticals, and Embecta are scheduled, as well as Telos and Algonquin—key names in energy and cybersecurity investing. This week, markets are closely monitoring Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. At the March session, the Fed left rates unchanged and signaled only two potential cuts totaling 50 basis points for the year, based on its dot plot—suggesting a cautious approach to monetary easing. Simultaneously, April’s U.S. Services PMI is set to be released today, providing clearer insights into post-tariff business activity. Amazon’s CEO stated that, so far, there is no indication of reduced demand due to tariff concerns. Some inventory spikes were noted in specific categories, likely driven by stockpiling ahead of tariff implementation. Retail prices, on average, have not significantly increased, and most sellers have yet to raise prices—though that could change depending on how tariff policies evolve. Notably, essential goods have grown at twice the rate of other categories and now account for a third of all unit sales in the U.S. Following April’s jobs report, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June dropped from 75% to 42%. With only one more employment report due before the June 18 meeting, hopes for an early policy shift have faded. Some analysts argue that without the tariff conflict, the Fed might already be cutting rates, given the downward trend in inflation, steady growth, and Congressional focus on fiscal measures. The April jobs data showed that the U.S. labor market remains resilient—neither too strong to spark inflation fears nor too weak to trigger panic. After the release, with market confidence rebounding, Goldman Sachs forecasted the Fed’s first rate cut to come at the July 30 meeting. The consensus expectation is for the Fed funds rate to remain in the current 4.25%-4.5% range, unchanged since January. The CME FedWatch tool currently assigns just a 1.8% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting. Economists warn that Trump’s newly imposed tariffs—active since April—could drive up prices and hurt employment, challenging the Fed’s dual mandate of controlling both inflation and joblessness. However, recent data shows inflation remained mild in March and the labor market held steady in April. Nancy Vanden Houten, Chief U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics, wrote: “The data is strong enough for the Fed to stay on the sidelines and monitor how tariffs influence inflation and expectations.” While hard data remains stable, forecasts and sentiment surveys signal looming challenges. Business leaders and individuals express concern that rising costs may burden consumers and businesses in the coming months or years, possibly even tipping the economy into recession.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
Institutions Are Loading EUR/NZDIn the current market context, EURNZD is showing a highly compelling technical and fundamental structure for both short- and medium-term opportunities. After a prolonged retracement from the March highs, the price has strongly reacted from a clearly defined weekly demand zone between 1.8712 and 1.8600. From a technical perspective, this reaction aligns with a moderate RSI divergence and a still intact macro bullish market structure, despite the corrective nature of recent weeks. However, what truly validates this setup goes beyond price action alone. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data strongly supports the long thesis. On the euro side, we observe a significant increase in commercial long positions (+14,659 contracts), signaling institutional hedging activity. At the same time, non-commercials (speculators) have been cutting their short positions, suggesting growing expectations of euro strength. On the NZD side, the picture is even more decisive: non-commercials maintain a net short position of -40,444 contracts, with a further reduction in long positions. The speculative sentiment toward the NZD is clearly bearish and shows no signs of short-term reversal. Adding to this, retail sentiment data currently shows that 59% of retail traders are short on EURNZD. From a contrarian perspective, this is particularly bullish — the crowd is selling while smart money is buying. Seasonality also supports the setup: historically, the months of May and June have been positive for the euro and negative for the NZD, adding an additional statistical layer of confluence to the trade idea. 🎯 Conclusion We may be witnessing the early stages of a new bullish leg on EURNZD. The 1.89 area represents a potential re-entry zone in the event of a retest. The medium-term target is set between 1.9300 and 1.9500. Technical structure, institutional positioning, retail sentiment, and seasonality all align in favor of a clear bullish bias in the coming weeks.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 5–9, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Fed Holds Rates Amid Political Pressure The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% during its meeting on May 6–7, despite political pressure to lower it. Investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision remarks for insights into future monetary policy directions. 📊 Key Economic Indicators on Tap This week brings several important economic data releases, including the U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. These indicators will provide insights into the health of the economy amid ongoing trade tensions and concerns over consumer confidence. 💼 Corporate Earnings in Focus Major companies such as Palantir ( NASDAQ:PLTR ), Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ), Uber ( NYSE:UBER ), Walt Disney ( NYSE:DIS ), and Ford ( NYSE:F ) are scheduled to report earnings this week. Investors will be watching these reports for signs of how companies are navigating the current economic landscape. 🌐 Global Events and Leadership Changes Europe is set for significant leadership changes, with Friedrich Merz expected to be confirmed as Germany’s new chancellor. Additionally, the Vatican’s conclave to elect a new pope convenes on Wednesday. These events, along with the 80th anniversary of VE Day, may have broader implications for global markets. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Monday, May 5: 9:45 AM ET: S&P Global Composite PMI (April Final) 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (April) 📅 Tuesday, May 6: 8:30 AM ET: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (March) 📅 Wednesday, May 7: 2:00 PM ET: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 📅 Thursday, May 8: 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims 10:00 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (March) 📅 Friday, May 9: 3:00 PM ET: Consumer Credit (March) ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Did They Buy the Bottom? EUR/USD Set for Another Reversal!After an explosive bounce from the 1.0800–1.0850 demand zone, EUR/USD is now in a key structural retest around 1.1300. The COT data shows a net increase in long positions by Non-Commercials, but with the Dollar still holding structural strength in its own COT report and an RSI showing bearish divergence, this area may act as a key zone for price discovery. 📊 WHAT THE DATA SAYS: 📉 Price Action: Clear rejection from the 1.1450–1.1550 supply zone. Retest at key structure near 1.1300. 📑 COT (EURO): Net long positions up by +183 (196,388 long vs 120,591 short) = bullish tone. 📑 COT (USD): Still balanced, but Non-Commercials are reducing net longs → potential weakening. 📊 Retail Sentiment (MyFXBook): 70% retail traders are short = contrarian long bias remains. 🌱 Seasonality (May): Historically negative for EUR/USD (–0.0088) = potential downside pressure ahead. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.1450 / 1.1550 (Supply Zone) Support: 1.1300 (Structural retest) — 1.0850 (Strong demand) 📉 BASE SCENARIO: Pullback toward 1.1100–1.1050 before renewed long accumulation. 📈 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: Break above 1.1450 could target 1.1600–1.1720 zone. 🔍 Watch out for May's seasonal inversion and extreme speculative positioning — fakeouts may precede real directional moves.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
S&P Melt-Up, FOMC, Gold, Bitcoin - Key Levels and OutlooksHappy Saturday!!! I just finished a live roundtable session so charts and analysis was fresh on the mind. S&P just closed 9 consecutive days higher S&P Futures 9 green candles The melt-up has been slow and steady, but persistent Markets are now "repaired" back to or above the US Liberation Day break levels on April 2/April 3 I see some near-term resistance in the S&P with FOMC coming this week. There are some reasonable gaps lower for some pullbacks, but the PAIN trade persists. The "pain" trade now is higher highs because sentiment is so bearish. The "pain" trade if we see all-time highs would be a bull trap. FED is likely staying paused for May and June per the FED Watch Tool and the first rate cut may start in July 2025. But I'm watching US Yields to see if they persist higher because that may ruin the FED's plan and power and 40+ year correlations. Eyes wide open and small risk. Short-term strategies are doing well in this environment. I'll continue to grind. Thanks for watching!!!
CBOE:XSP
by ChrisPulver
Is Platinum About to Explode? Imminent Rally!Platinum (PL1!) is currently in a technically and macroeconomically compelling setup. After a prolonged consolidation between 872–921, price has reacted strongly, forming a clear accumulation pattern supported by institutional positioning and favorable seasonality. 📈 1. Technical Analysis: Accumulation and Potential Breakout The weekly chart shows a strong demand zone that has been defended multiple times over the past year. Following a deep pullback in April, price has formed a harmonic compression structure and broke to the upside with conviction. The area between 1010 and 1040 stands out as the first major historical supply zone — previously rejected but now looking increasingly vulnerable. 📉 2. COT Report: Institutions Repositioning Long The COT data as of April 22 shows a clear increase in long positions from commercial traders (+1,177 contracts), while non-commercials maintain a net long bias. Total open interest rose by over 1,500 contracts — a strong sign of renewed speculative interest in Platinum. ✅ Conclusion Platinum is showing strong confluence across technicals, institutional positioning, and historical seasonal behavior. The probability of a bullish extension in Q2 2025 is high. This is a setup worth watching closely in the coming days.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
Gold Trapped? Everyone’s Long… But Price is Going Down!Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of exhaustion after its explosive rally that pushed it beyond $3,400. We are now witnessing a pullback phase, with price directly testing a key demand zone between $3,050 and $2,980. From a technical standpoint, this is the last major defense before a potential drop toward the $2,832 area. The current bearish pressure is supported by a powerful blend of macro, positioning, and behavioral factors: COT Report – Gold: Non-commercials (speculators) are aggressively closing long positions and opening shorts, which signals a breakdown in the short-term bullish narrative. On the other hand, commercials (hedgers), also known as the "smart money", are steadily increasing their long exposure, hinting at a potential accumulation zone forming. COT Report – USD Index: Speculative funds are stacking long positions on the dollar, which continues to add downside pressure on gold. As long as this persists, any upside attempt on XAU/USD will likely face headwinds. Seasonality: May tends to be historically bullish for gold, but June is seasonally weak. The strongest seasonal window opens between July and August, suggesting the possibility of a deeper pullback before the next bullish wave. Retail Sentiment: Over 75% of retail traders are long on XAU/USD, typically a contrarian signal. This sets the stage for a classic stop-hunt scenario, where price flushes lower to trigger retail stop-losses before a potential reversal. 📌 Conclusion: In true Bridgewater fashion, we’re seeing a divergence between positioning and price action. In the short term, gold remains vulnerable to a move toward $2,832. However, if that zone holds, it could provide a compelling opportunity to accumulate for a potential summer swing rally toward all-time highs.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USDCAD | Technical Rebound or Final Stop Before the Crash?USDCAD is currently in a highly delicate phase: the price has reached a key weekly demand zone between 1.3720–1.3820, which overlaps with a strong Fibonacci retracement cluster (0.705–0.78) of the previous bullish leg. So far, the reaction has been muted, but price compression and fading volatility suggest a potential short-term rebound. However, looking at the bigger picture, the macro and positioning signals are flashing red for the US dollar: 📊 COT Report: Non-Commercials are significantly increasing short positions on USD and reducing shorts on CAD → bearish bias on USDCAD 🧠 Retail sentiment: Most retail traders are long on USDCAD → contrarian bearish bias 🗓️ Seasonality: May is historically negative for the USD and positive for the CAD → further confirms the short thesis Only a structural recovery above 1.4150 on the weekly close would invalidate the bearish setup. Until then, any retracement towards 1.3980–1.4050 should be seen as an opportunity to sell strength. 🎯 Key Levels: Sell zone: 1.3980–1.4050 Invalidation: Weekly close > 1.4150 Targets: 1.3720 – 1.3550 🔔 Critical note: When everyone is long, often the only direction left is down.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Is EURUSD getting ready for another 600 pips bull run?🏆 EURUSD Market Update 📊 Technical Outlook 🔸Short-term: mixed/range 🔸Mid-term: BULLS 2000 🔸Status: accumulation in range 🔸previously x2 waves +600 pips 🔸clearly strong uptrend in progress 🔸Price Target Bears: range 🔸Price Target BULLS: 2000 🔸strategy: accumulate in range 🔸TP1 +200 TP2 +400 pips 🔸SL 60 pips / below accum range 📈 EUR/USD Bullish Drivers 🏦 ECB staying cautious on rate cuts while Fed signals easing 📉 Weak U.S. job and manufacturing data pressuring the dollar 🌍 U.S. trade policy uncertainty pushing investors toward euro 📊 Technicals show strong support, RSI confirms bullish momentum 🔮 Outlook ⏳ Short-term: Targeting 1.1500 if U.S. data stays soft 📆 Medium-term: 1.20 possible on policy divergence and EU fiscal boost
Long
by ProjectSyndicate
29
Natural Gas Ready to Explode?In recent months, Natural Gas (NG1!) has shown significant volatility, but now there are clear signals suggesting a major directional move could be imminent. On the weekly technical chart, price has bounced from a strong demand zone between 2.50 and 2.70 USD/MMBtu, an area historically defended by institutional players. Currently, it is trading above 3.30 USD, consolidating in preparation for the next move. Key resistance zones to watch are between 3.90 and 4.20 USD, a region of high volume confluence and institutional supply. Retail sentiment is extremely interesting: over 75% of retail traders are currently long. Historically, an excess of retail longs often leads to either corrections or accumulation/distribution phases, as large players tend to act against the majority. Looking at the COT Report, the data supports the bullish thesis: non-commercials (speculative funds) remain net short, while commercials (physical operators) are increasing their long positions, indicating expectations of higher real demand in the medium term. This is a historically bullish signal, although it may not materialize immediately: commercials often start accumulating well before price movements occur. Finally, seasonality favors the bulls: historically, from late April through mid-June, Natural Gas tends to perform positively, fueled by storage accumulation ahead of summer and the following winter season. Strategically, a consolidation phase above 2.90–3.00 USD could serve as a base for larger moves towards 3.90 and eventually 4.90 USD, with the bullish scenario invalidated only below the 2.80 USD area.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD racing towards new highs? The market sends clear signalsThe EUR/USD pair is confirming a very strong bullish structure. On the weekly chart, the price is positioned above a key supply zone between 1.1350 and 1.1450, after strongly breaking through previous resistances. The current consolidation at the top of the range suggests a potential continuation to the upside, with a first target at 1.1500 and an extended target at 1.1600. Retail market sentiment shows a clear majority of short positions on EUR/USD. This supports a contrarian bullish view, as historically, retail tends to be positioned against the prevailing trend. COT report data further strengthens this outlook. The US Dollar Index (USD Index) shows an increase in short positions among institutional traders, indicating a possible phase of dollar weakness. Conversely, the Euro FX shows a significant increase in long positions from both non-commercial and commercial traders, highlighting institutional interest in buying the euro. From a seasonal perspective, May tends to be neutral or slightly negative for the euro, while June historically favors moderate dollar strength. This suggests that EUR/USD could still have room to rise over the coming weeks, but it will be important to monitor for signs of bullish exhaustion towards the end of May. In summary, the current context favors further upside on EUR/USD as long as the price remains above the 1.1300 support. However, it will be crucial to watch for the first signs of weakness as we approach June.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1