Next Short-Term Tops En Route To 4400With the likely conclusion of Minor waves (yellow numbers) 1 and 2, I am providing a short-term update. I have taken the final values from both of these waves to forecast the end of Minor wave 3. I originally had the entirety of Intermediate wave (pink numbers) 1 ending by April 6 around 4112, but that will now likely occur a little later. The centermost wave extension numbers relate to the likely end of Minor wave 3 and are based on historical movements considering the wave data from the completion of Minor waves 1 and 2.
Minor wave 1 was seven days long, while wave 2 was two days long. Based on historical applications, wave 3 will likely last 6-8 days with a top between 4112 and 4135. Minor wave 4 would likely be a short drop and potentially only last 1-2 days. Intermediate wave 1 is now most likely around April 12 possibly near 4165.
Intermediate wave 2-5 are still early projections and they will be updated in time. I have slid the end of Cycle wave (orange letter ‘b’) B back one more day for the moment with the final market top around June 20, 2023. It would still most likely occur at the top of the trend line as it is placed on this chart. The wave extension numbers to the far right relate to the likely end of Cycle wave B, Primary wave C, Intermediate wave 5 since they are all the same event. These levels and timeframes are based on the historical application of Cycle wave A and Primary waves A & B inside of the current Cycle wave B.
Next week’s rise is likely attributed to a slow news week where ‘no news is good news.’
Fed_green
The Path To 2400 Goes Through...The bottom was on track timewise from my last analysis, however, the bottom was not as low as projected. Intermediate wave C inside of Primary wave B ended higher than I would have liked but 86% retracement of an A wave in an overall corrective wave is not unusual. Here is the estimated path to the high. Analysis of historical data has Primary wave C lasting 34-67 days. The path for 67 days is laid out here in which the final top flirts with 4400 around June 16, 2023.
I will re-look at the path as each of the 5 Intermediate waves finalize. Typical catalysts could be the Fed and CPI numbers, however the debt ceiling deadline falls in line with the top. I have zero doubt we are heading for the worse part of this correction, but the path is likely through 4400 first.