USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week!USDJPY Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for the Upcoming Week (Sept 23-29, 2024)
As we look ahead to the coming week, USDJPY appears poised for a potential slightly bullish bias. This outlook is based on a confluence of fundamental factors and current market conditions that favor USD strength relative to the Japanese yen. Below is a breakdown of key drivers supporting this outlook, along with insights that could influence price action.
1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance
One of the key drivers for a potential bullish bias in USDJPY next week is the persistent hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. Although the Fed opted to pause rate hikes in September, policymakers have indicated that they are open to further tightening if inflationary pressures persist. Recent inflation data in the U.S. showed a slight uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), suggesting that the Fed may still consider additional rate hikes in 2024. Higher U.S. interest rates would continue to bolster the U.S. dollar, driving demand for USDJPY as traders seek yield differentials.
2. Bank of Japan's Dovish Policy
In stark contrast to the Fed, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control. The BoJ's dovish approach continues to weigh on the Japanese yen, especially in an environment where other major central banks are tightening monetary policy. While some market participants expect the BoJ to consider policy changes in the future, there have been no concrete signals indicating a shift in the near term. This widening policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ is a key factor supporting a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
3. Safe Haven Demand Waning
The yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of global market volatility. However, recent market stability, coupled with optimism surrounding global growth prospects, has reduced demand for the yen as a haven. As risk sentiment improves, investors are more likely to allocate capital into higher-yielding assets, which could further weaken the yen.
Moreover, geopolitical tensions that previously supported yen demand have eased slightly, making USDJPY more likely to drift higher in a low-risk environment.
4. U.S. Treasury Yields Rising
Another factor contributing to the bullish bias in USDJPY is the rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Higher yields on U.S. government bonds make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors, adding upward pressure to USDJPY. The correlation between USDJPY and U.S. Treasury yields is well-documented, and as yields rise, so too does the currency pair. Traders will be closely monitoring U.S. economic data next week, including durable goods orders and GDP figures, to gauge the potential for further yield increases.
5. Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Levels
From a technical perspective, USDJPY is trading within a well-defined range, but with a slight bullish bias as long as it holds above key support at the 147.50 level. A break above the psychological 150.00 level could open the door to further upside, with resistance seen at 151.50. On the downside, failure to hold above 147.50 could lead to a test of lower levels around 146.00. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are currently neutral but leaning slightly toward overbought territory, suggesting room for further gains before a pullback.
6. U.S. Economic Data Next Week
Next week, market participants will pay close attention to several high-impact economic reports out of the U.S., including the Durable Goods Orders on Tuesday and GDP Growth on Thursday. Positive readings on these metrics could fuel further gains in USDJPY, reinforcing the bullish bias. Conversely, any disappointing data could dampen USD strength and lead to some consolidation in the pair.
Conclusion
Given the combination of hawkish signals from the Fed, the BoJ's ongoing dovish stance, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and waning safe-haven demand, USDJPY appears to have a slightly bullish bias heading into next week. Traders should watch for any shifts in risk sentiment or unexpected economic data that could alter this outlook. The key levels to watch are 147.50 for support and 150.00 for resistance.
Keywords: USDJPY forecast, USDJPY bullish, USDJPY analysis, Bank of Japan policy, Federal Reserve rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields, Japanese yen, safe-haven demand, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY key levels, USDJPY next week, trading USDJPY.
Federal
USDJPY: Slight Bullish Bias This Week? (19/09/2024)As of September 19, 2024, traders are closely monitoring the USDJPY pair for potential bullish momentum. Several fundamental factors and market conditions indicate that the pair might see a slight upward bias this week. Let’s dive into the key drivers affecting the USDJPY price action.
1. Diverging Central Bank Policies
One of the primary influences on USDJPY is the monetary policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
- Federal Reserve’s Stance: As we move into the week, the market expects the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance or at least keep interest rates elevated. Although there’s some speculation about a possible pause in future rate hikes, the Fed's priority remains controlling inflation. This higher interest rate environment in the US makes the US dollar more attractive, pushing USDJPY upwards.
- Bank of Japan’s Ultra-Loose Policy: In contrast, the BoJ continues its ultra-loose monetary policy, aiming to stimulate Japan’s sluggish economy. Despite rising inflation in Japan, the BoJ has shown little inclination to raise rates aggressively. This Interest rate differential between the US and Japan tends to weaken the yen, giving a bullish outlook for USDJPY.
2. Risk Sentiment in Global Markets
Risk sentiment plays a crucial role in the movement of USDJPY. When global markets are in a risk-off mode, investors tend to flock to safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen, strengthening it. However, recent global economic data and financial news have maintained a somewhat stable risk appetite, leaning towards a risk-on environment.
- US Economic Data: Recent reports from the US, such as better-than-expected retail sales and strong labor market data, continue to support the narrative of economic resilience. This fuels demand for the dollar and supports USDJPY’s bullish momentum.
- Global Geopolitical Risks: While geopolitical tensions in regions like Europe and the Middle East may inject some volatility, there hasn’t been a major shift toward a risk-off sentiment that would heavily favor the yen. For now, dollar strength seems to dominate.
3. Japanese Economic Conditions
Japan’s economy continues to struggle with low growth despite rising inflation. The BoJ’s consistent approach to stimulus, combined with the government's push for wage growth, has not yet translated into significant yen strength. Additionally, trade deficits in Japan, exacerbated by higher import costs, have weighed on the yen’s valuation.
Without a major shift in BoJ policy or a significant improvement in Japan's economic performance, the yen will likely remain under pressure, keeping USDJPY on a slightly bullish path.
4. US Bond Yields
US Treasury yields are another major factor driving the USDJPY. Higher US bond yields, often seen in response to tighter monetary policy and strong economic data, make the dollar more attractive to foreign investors. The upward trajectory of bond yields has been a persistent theme, reinforcing dollar strength. If this trend continues through the week, we can expect additional support for USDJPY.
5. Technical Indicators
Looking at the technical analysis for USDJPY, the pair has been trading near key resistance levels in recent sessions. If the pair breaks above these resistance zones, we could see further bullish momentum.
- Key Support and Resistance Levels: The 145.00 level has been a psychological support level for USDJPY, while 148.50 serves as resistance. Should the pair break beyond this resistance, it could trigger more buying pressure, pushing USDJPY higher.
Conclusion: USDJPY’s Slight Bullish Bias
In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to exhibit a slight bullish bias this week, primarily driven by:
- Monetary policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ.
- Favorable US economic data and rising Treasury yields.
- Limited economic growth in Japan, with persistent trade deficits.
- Stable global risk sentiment supporting the dollar over the yen.
Traders should keep an eye on US bond yields, Fed comments, and any sudden shifts in risk sentiment or geopolitical events, as these could influence USDJPY’s trajectory throughout the week.
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Keywords:
- USDJPY forecast
- USDJPY bullish bias
- USDJPY analysis September 2024
- USDJPY technical analysis
- USDJPY key drivers
- USDJPY trading strategy
- USDJPY and Federal Reserve policy
- USDJPY support and resistance levels
- USDJPY risk sentiment
- USDJPY bond yields impact
That's a wrap!! Gold analysis pre Fed, (take 2) This is a video to replace the prior video where the chart was blocked by a paper trading sign!
Same levels, bias and plans for the Fed are in this video! Please enjoy ;)
Gold is a mixed bias, under pressure while below lasty week's highs, but it will be make or break time, perhaps, with the Fed today. Let's see! Here are my levels for bulls and bears!
FOMC FORWARD GUIDANCE SINCE 2018 w/FED SPEAKERS w/SPX The chart provided visually represents the forward guidance issued by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alongside the performance of various key economic indicators and market indices. The FOMC forward guidance serves as a crucial tool for signaling the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and future intentions, thereby influencing market expectations and economic behavior.
By examining the interplay between FOMC forward guidance and these key economic indicators, investors, policymakers, and analysts can gain insights into the likely direction of monetary policy and its potential impact on financial markets and the broader economy.
I have also included comments from various FOMC speakers to better form a picture of the past.
Rising interest rates are not affecting Bitcoin anymore Before significant interest rate hikes, I have claimed that Bitcoin is decoupling from the rest economy (which probably happened).
However, the effect of rising interest rates still had some power over the Bitcoin in the tank.
It seems that this power of raising interest rates is diminishing for Bitcoin relative to the rest of the economy which will probably suffer quite a bit more after this post.
The chances of Bitcoin being affected by raising interest rates are becoming lower and lower.
The bitcoin community is pricing in these hikes a lot earlier than the rest of the market. The same thing happened when inflation started (2020), when Bitcoin moved significantly quicker than the CPI.
My estimate is that the Bitcoin public generally sticks (as do I) to the rule that Inflation is defined as an increase in money supply and deflation is defined as a decrease in the money supply.
These numbers are available much quicker than CPI (Consumer Price Index) which is a trailing indicator and can lag 15-24 months on average.
The same thing happened in reverse now.
One more important point is that monetary inflation is much more difficult to reverse through rising Interest rates, and the community is also aware of this. In my previous posts I have explained
how interest rates cannot curb inflation (even in theory) unless they overshoot the current CPI number, which at the time was over 9%.
Interest rates could have bigger effects at <9% rates only if they break the economy (which slowly might start happening), but this will still not be enough to reduce the money supply.
This could stop further inflation at <9% interest rates, however at the cost of economy. What they cannot do is reverse inflation, meaning that all the money that is in the system will stay in the system
and prices will not come down. Killing inflation this way will be paid for through increased poverty and decreased standard of living, until the economic growth "eats" through that "debt". Which at a
2-3% rate could take multiple years.
If we account for all of these effects and consider the Bitcoin community world views, the chance of further fall is very low, while the stock market still has a lot of down room.
Great opportunity to buy some more BTC - My take on the FED It is possible that BTC will go to 20 000 and maybe even below that, but chasing the bottom is not the smartest idea.
This is the opportunity that we've been waiting for. Everyone wanted to buy BTC if only it was a little cheaper. Well, now it is, but everyone is scared :)
The wise words of Peter Lynch are that NOBODY can predict the bottom, and nobody can predict anything within a year or two. What we can see is that Bitcoin demonstrated more than 2x higher demand than this.
Even though the Crypto market wasn't positively affected by inflation, you have to remember that in macroeconomics some trends require even years to settle even though the signs were obvious.
Everyone with some common sense could tell that inflation was going to be massive if we just looked at the money supply increase of 2020 and 2021, let alone 2022.
But what everyone forgot is that, according to Milton Friedman, real-world effects of inflation go in phases. In the first 6 months, there is some "positive" effect on the economy, due to the massive inflow of currency in the system.
Also, keep in mind that inflation is felt IMMEDIATELY in the stocks and bonds. The very second money printing starts.
But 18 months after that, the effects of inflation are first felt. Keep in mind that this statistic puts just the start of 2020 inflation at the beggining of 2022. So the inflation will keep at this pace for at least the next 2 years with yearly
inflation of 15-30%.
The fact that federal reserve is increasing interest rate will NOT get the inflation under control. Restraining inflation that way never worked long term. It can only create short term FUD and selling.
What happens with the money that people withdraw from their overinflated accounts after 2 years of 20+% gains on S&P500? They start to spend it, because inflation is not under control. What happens then? Inflation becomes even worse.
It takes some money fot the money to come back, usually a couple months to a year. The money in the system will just switch places from fictional (stocks, index and funds) into real life (food, housing, services).
90% of the money that FED has been "printing" for the past 2 years didn't even enter the real life. It was fictional. It was conserved in the markets. Real life effects therefore weren't noticable until recently, when people started cashing in.
Interest rates on bonds will NOT be enough for any average investor. Bonds are only used as a small percentage of portfolios for hedging some risks in the markets.
This text is also the reason why the FED should NEVER interfere with monetary policy, and shouldn't exist at all. All of these money printing and recession cycles are exploiting the human need to gamble. They will crash the system at random
intervals. They will overinflate it when nobody expects it. You will enter the trades even after it's been going up for too long. You probably got burned 5 times before that by trying to short it because it was rational. You can be 100% correct
and still lose money.
And you will lose money both ways.
Higher for LongerUS inflation data in July 2023 provided mixed signals. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) is moving in the right direction, producer price inflation suggest pipeline pressures are picking up. Core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy costs, rose only 0.2% for a second month in a row . However, US producer prices picked up in July, owing to increases in certain service categories. This likely buys more time for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to deliberate on the future path of monetary policy.
The flows into bond exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been volatile. Over the past year, investors were starting to embrace duration. Investors were positioned for recession, inflation crash, and Fed cuts - evident from $31.7bn inflows to Treasury bond ETFs on pace for a record year2. However, investors are starting to pull out of the biggest bond ETFs devoted to Treasuries. More than $1.8 billion came out of the $39 billion iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF last week, the most since March 20203. Sentiment toward long-dated Treasuries has soured over the past month amid growing conviction that the Fed will keep interest rates at elevated levels for an extended period. We expect rates to remain higher for longer and are unlikely to see the Fed cut rates until the Q1 of next year amidst a stronger US economy.
Don’t celebrate on disinflation just yet
Overall, the US economy continues to show extraordinary resilience despite monetary constraints and credit tightening. While inflation has shown encouraging signs of decline, we caution that the level remains high. Strong July retail sales raise the risk of a re-acceleration in inflation. The four biggest categories of the ex-auto’s component saw outsized gains: non-store retailers, restaurants & bars, groceries, and general merchandise. Amidst a tight US labour market, with unemployment at historic lows and wages continuing to rise, the downward pricing momentum in the service sector is likely to be at a slower rate. Commodity prices are also beginning to rebound from the weakness seen in Q2 2023. Energy prices have been rising on the back of Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) production cuts. If commodity prices extend their recent momentum, it could pose upside risks to inflation.
Fed Officials remain divided
Messaging on a somewhat mixed inflation outlook from the Fed Officials remains a mixed bag. One faction remains of the view that rates hikes over the past year and a half has done its job while another group contends that pausing too soon could risk inflation re-accelerating. Fed governor’s Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller remain in the hawkish camp, hinting at more rate increases being needed to get inflation on a path down to the 2% target.
Futures markets are assigning about a 11% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike when the Fed next meets on 19 and 20 September4. Additionally, rate cuts have now been completely taken off the table until perhaps later in the Q1 2024. The latest Fed minutes reveal commentary from officials, including the hawks, such as Neel Kashkari, suggest a willingness to pause again in September, but to leave the door open for further hikes at the upcoming meetings5.
Opportunity for a yield seeking investor
It’s been an impressive turnaround since the pandemic when negative real yields became the norm. TINA- ‘There Is No Alternative’ to equities, is over now that evidence of the shift to a 5% world appears stronger than ever. Today investors have the opportunity to lock in one of the highest yields in decades, with US two-year yields paying close to 5% exceeding the yields at longer maturities without the volatility witnessed in the 10-year sector. A resilient US economy is likely to keep interest rates and bond yields higher for longer.
Sources
1 Bureau of Labour Statistics as of 10 July 2023
2 BofA ETF Research, Bloomberg as of 9 August 2022 - 9 August 2023
3 Bloomberg as of 14 August 2023
4 Bloomberg as of 17 August 2023
5 federalreserve.gov as of 16 August 2023
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
dxy after federal Fund ratehi dear trader my road map for dollar curency index ...
One more Fed rate hike at least and a narrowly softer dollar outlook
The forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting may be a relatively subdued gathering, leaving exciting loose ends for September. Meanwhile, the dollar could trade around current ranges with a modest softening bias over the rest of the year.
July FOMC meeting
The FOMC meets on 25-26 July and a 25-basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate is inevitable. The ‘skip’ from the last meeting foreshadowed a hike in July – and potentially another in September. Markets unanimously expect a July hike and Federal Reserve officials haven’t pushed back.
Since the June FOMC meeting, and in view of favourable inflation prints and softer employment data, markets no longer anticipate a September hike. While that may prove right, they might be getting ahead of themselves. One month’s data doesn’t make a trend. Further, core inflation remains too high for the Fed and labour markets are still quite resilient. Expectations of a US recession or hard landing continue to fade – ‘soft landing’ is the buzzword of the day.
More data will come in after the July FOMC meeting and data dependence will shape the September decision. Perhaps the Jackson Hole symposium in August will shed some light on Fed thinking.
The key challenge for the July meeting will be communications. Regardless of the September outlook, the Fed has won its months-long struggle, convincing markets that, at least for now, the FOMC is on hold for the rest of 2023. The July meeting should be wary of any statements that might imperil this victory.
Foreign exchange outlook
Predicting exchange rates is a fool’s errand. With that disclaimer, what is the dollar’s outlook for the remainder of the year?
The dollar is off its peak from last autumn, but it remains strong (Figure 1). The dollar’s upside may be limited as the Fed’s rate hiking cycle is nearing an end. Improving inflation may inject a downward bias to note and bond yields. However, the downside may also be limited given anticipation that the FFR, after peaking, will be on hold for the rest of 2023 and services price will be sticky.
Figure 1. Dollar remains strong despite falling from peak
Source: Federal Reserve; through June 2023
A soft landing scenario would comport with muted dollar sentiment and modest volatility, unlike a sharp risk-off or risk-on environment. Decent dollar selling could emerge when markets perceive with certainty the Fed will start embarking on rate cuts, but that isn’t priced in at this juncture until early next year.
The base case faces two-sided risks. If US inflation comes down more sharply than anticipated, major financial instability emerges or the economy sharply stagnates, the Fed could begin cutting rates earlier than expected, yields could fall and the dollar tumble. On the upside, more inflation persistence or greater than expected vigour in the US economy could sustain demand, as could a heightening in geopolitical risks.
Of course, the dollar will also be impacted by what is happening abroad.
Markets are discounting two more European Central Bank hikes this year – though there is increased debate about a September hike. The euro area economy has already stagnated and the outlook is for continued weakness. Absent further inflationary impulse, this weakness will curb the ECB’s hiking appetite and limit euro appreciation.
The Japanese yen’s course will be sensitive to finance ministry concerns about yen weakness and yield curve control policy expectations. Further yen weakness will be limited by market concerns over official jawboning or intervention. Meanwhile, markets expected a quick abandonment of YCC after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stepped down earlier this year, but his successor Kazuo Ueda has taken a cautious approach. However, YCC adjustment seems more a question of when than if. Altering YCC could significantly boost the yen.
There may be modest renminbi upside against the dollar. It’s a managed currency, and opaquely so. It has depreciated against the dollar by some 4% this year, mainly reflecting divergent monetary policy stances in the US and China. Capital inflow to China has sharply ebbed over the last year. The authorities are resisting depreciation, though not through formal People’s Bank of China intervention, and increasingly signalling stronger aversion to renminbi weakness. .
The Chinese growth surge expected after reopening has fallen short of expectations given strong headwinds. The PBoC has only run slightly more accommodative policies and the fiscal authorities have so far eschewed significant stimulus given the economy’s high indebtedness. The renminbi will remain soft overall, unless authorities embark unexpectedly on stepped up fiscal stimulus – a topic increasingly debated.
With the UK facing continued inflation challenges, the Bank of England may need to stick with relatively high rates, undergirding sterling.
One quarter of the dollar’s trade-weighted basket consists of the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. Mexico moved preemptively to raise interest rates ahead of the Fed, hiking by nearly six percentage points since early 2022, and Banco de México is holding rates high, given elevated inflation. The peso took off this year, rising by 16%. Further upside is limited. The Canadian dollar through ups and downs has been fairly flat this year.
The picture facing emerging market currencies varies. But good performers that raised policy rates preemptively relative to the Fed, such as Brazil, have experienced good capital inflows this year.
Putting it all together, the dollar may trade narrowly with a softening bias for the rest of 2023. Next year may prove more interesting.
Mark Sobel is US Chair of OMFIF.
source passage : Federal Reserve
Very Strong Signal 📶 EURUSD 📶 Hello, friends, do not sell this pair because of the negative news, as the interest rate was negative yesterday on the dollar, so the euro must rise in front of it, so I will prefer the buying trend instead of selling, so we have three areas from which the price will reverse with a 99% confirmation rate
€$$$$$$$$$$$$€$$$$$$$$$$€
The first area is the mitigation area from which the price may be reflected............ and the second area is the demand area...and the last and strongest area is the order block area... Therefore, in order to make sure that these areas are effective, we must We go on lower timeframes and wait for a reversal signal in one of these areas
DXY GAME ON!! SPIKE COMING FOR THE DOLLAR?Last week's surprising jobs report sticky inflation, and persistent and frothy financial conditions may force the Federal Reserve members into a more hawkish position, forcing them to keep the heat on interest rates and the money supply.
Many market participants were looking for a pause in rate hikes as soon as next month and possibly a pivot to lowering rates shortly after. This new data is going against what the Fed was trying to accomplish in this rate hike cycle, which is
to keep inflation within mandated guidelines, and to tame loose financial conditions, dashing the hopes for a pivot in policy anytime soon and pushing that pivot out for far longer than some were expecting. This will put upward pressure on bond yields and a dollar so heavily shorted causing the pivot crowd to close out some of their short positions as the Fed puts the screws to the money supply and inflation. This classic cup and handle setup illustrates the effect the Fed Policy may have on the dollar.
GOLD BILL RUNOANDA:XAUUSD
The MONTHLY chart shows the ratio between the spot gold price
and the US inflation rate.
While overall, the ratio is quite stable or consolidated for a period
of more than 15 years.
Hpwever. y three episodes are noted where the ratio rose parabolically
including 2009, 2015 and the Covid 2022 time period
.
For the present, the RSI Swing Indicator has printed a Buy Signal.
and
the MACD shows an early K/D crossover under the histogram.
Does this suggest an impending hard Bullrun for XAUUSD?
Please comment and offer your opinion. OANDA:XAUUSD
COMPOSITE INDEX Electric Vehicle Stocks TRENDING BEARISH In this daily chart, I made a composite index of electric vehicle stocks using
an approximate formula weighed by stock prices but not market cap.
( ( $NIO + $LCID + $RIDE + $NKLA +$WKHS) x 50 ) + $TSLA
This serves as an approximate normalization adjustment of the varying
stock prices in the collection of stocks.
I did this to later check to see if there is any effect of new legislation
impacting federal tax credits for electric vehicle adoption as a catalyst
for price action.
So far YTD, the composite at large has fallen 18.5% varying from
TSLA is down 6% and LCID as an example of others is down 36%
The composite will be a quick and easy way to see if the composite
and so the market cap of the underlying stocks inflects its downtrend
responsive to the federal legislation catalyst.
US DOLLAR/ Dollar dips on FED hike viewThe US DOLLAR has topped out and now beginning it correction. This is very bullish/positive for US Stocks for a new "potential" indication set up for them to breakout on a impulsive wave up.
It had touched my previous forecast of 110 as my last target.
Federal Reserve will take a more aggressive approach in hiking interest rates next week.
Expectations for a 100 basis points rate hike by the Fed at its policy meeting next week stood at about 29%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool after reaching as high as 80% last week.
The Fed seems to be leaning more towards 75 basis points than to 100 basis points," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust.
A strong start to the trading session for stocks on Wall Street fizzled out, however, as a drop in Apple Inc (AAPL) weighed following a Bloomberg report that the iPhone maker plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year in some units to cope with a potential economic downturn
Why the U.S. dollar is strengtheningYellow= Support or Resistance
Green= Positive trendlines
Blue= Strong and trend effecting S/R
The analysis concern USD bound to SEK, however its a great general directional indication to USD weighing against all other.
The Analysis is about the current positive trend. Due to its already developed for some time its not in its beginning, therefore its not an obvious buy, so im neutral and HOLD at the moment, passing the orange line would say SELL, enter short, EXIT LONG. Otherwise we are currently at green trendline bottom and if passing many yellow lines (current resistances) we aim next to rebounded up until upper green trendline resistance.
Like & Share if this was worth anything, only then ill hare more ideas.
The FeD new strategy.As equities and crypto are bludgeoned to death in 2022. It is becoming increasingly clear the intention of the Fed; contrary to its speeches, is not, to cause a soft landing for the economy. In order to effectively counter the East the West will need a financial Bazooka to re-structure manufacturing as well as commodity markets.
From this perspective, looking at event, pa and a number of indexes. It is my analysis that the FED will exceed its rate guidance throughout 2022, as to justify a level of economic stimulus currently unfathomable. Given the time constraints imposed by the conflict in Ukraine (Commodities) aswell as Chinese un-willingness to lift Covid Restrictions and popular inflationary and access to debt popular displeasure. The FED finds itself racing to "Break" the economy. Only to re-build it from the ground up starting December 2022. The level of stimulus and economic public spending will be nothing short of a Mega-Project, grounded in a need for Re-shoring the industry and securing commodities.
Bitcoin will go nothing short of Parabolic in Q4 2022-Q1 2025
Long for financial freedom, we are all at risk of begging for industry factory line jobs by the end of this economic squeeze that 2022 is and will remain being.
A Hisotrical View of Market Behavior Under the FedDetailed is a Chronological view of the the Fed Chairs and how the s&P 500 behaved under each of their terms... I'd hate to be the guy running the show at the top of this channel..