Get started

Federalreserve

DXY Potential UpsidesHey Traders, In the upcoming week, we are closely monitoring the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) for a potential buying opportunity around the 102.600 zone. The DXY has been trading in a downtrend, but it recently broke out of this trend. However, it is currently in a correction phase, attempting to retrace for the second time before potentially continuing its upward movement. From a fundamental perspective, there are signals indicating a potential upcoming couple of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in their next monetary policy decisions. This information can have a significant impact on the DXY and related currency pairs. I would recommend keeping a close eye on the DXY, not just prior to the new trading week, but also on a daily basis. This will help you trade USD pairs more professionally by identifying their direction. Additionally, monitoring the correlation between the DXY and the crypto market, as well as equities and indices, can provide valuable insights for trading decisions. By staying informed about the DXY's movements, you can enhance your trading strategy and make more informed decisions regarding USD pairs and related markets. Trade safe, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by JoeChampion
11
WTI: Crude Oil May Have Bottomed OutNYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ), Micro Crude Oil ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) The talk of inflation deceleration created a wishful misperception. Does a CPI read from 9.1% to 4.0% mean price relief for consumer? Certainly not. Something costed $1 last year will go up to $1.04 this year on average. What really comes down is the rate and the pace of price increase, but the absolute price level has forever gone up. This makes the real decline in energy prices more extraordinary: • On June 23rd, WTI crude oil ( NYSE:CL ) August futures settled at $69.16 a barrel. This is 44% below last June’s high of $123.70; • At $2.44 a gallon, RBOB gasoline futures ( SIX:RB ) declined 34% year-over-year; • At $2.37 a gallon, ULSD diesel futures ( EURONEXT:HO ) price dropped 45% YoY. • At the retail level, the American Automobile Association reports the national average regular gasoline price at $3.57 a gallon on June 25th, down 27% YoY; • The AAA diesel price is now $3.89/gallon, falling 33% YoY. However, the era of low energy prices may be coming to an end. I am convinced that the market dynamic has changed. Elevated geopolitical tension, higher demand and a weak dollar could help pull crude oil out of the bottom, and onto an upward trajectory. Global Tension Forms Solid Price Support A week after the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Crude oil futures shot up 30% from below $90 to $115. WTI peaked at $121 in June as the fighting continued. Since then, high inflation and rate hikes raised the risk of global recession. As the demand outlook dimmed, oil price lost support and trended down in the past year. Geopolitical tension may have been placed on the back burner, but it never went away. Last Saturday, the Russian private army Wagner Group mounted a short-lived rebellion against the Kremlin. What this means to the Ukraine conflict and the stability of Russia itself remain to be seen. Geopolitical crisis could cause supply shock and raise the price of crude oil. My observation is that global tension will be at an elevated level throughout 2023 and 2024. Oil Demand is Expected to Recover Last July, I called the peak of gas price in this report. I discovered that record $5 gas had caused demand to fumble. AAA gas price surprisingly declined at the start of the traditional summer driving season. Things look different now. Retail gas price creeped up 50 cents (+13%) since December. Many stations popped up gas price ahead of the July 4th holiday. With a still strong job market and inflation in check, consumers are taking their summer vacations. A second key demand factor comes from the US government. The Biden Administration has drawn down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to fight high oil price in the last two years. The Energy Information Agency data shows that the SPR holds 350 million barrels of crude oil as of June 16th. This is 285 million barrels less than the level on January 24th, 2020, the week when President Biden first took office. SPR is now at a critical four-decade low level. The Department of Energy has begun replenishing the SPR. It announced buying up to 3 million barrels in May, and recently planned additional purchase of 6 million in August. Thirdly, the risk of global economic recession is now lower than what we previously feared. This is my most important reason for raising the outlook of future oil demand. • The Federal Reserve implemented ten consecutive interest rate increases since March 2022. US inflation rate has declined from the peak of 9.1% to 4.0% in May. Lowering inflation may have averted the US economy from falling on a hard landing. • The banking failures, from Silicon Valley Bank to Signature Bank, First Republic, and Credit Suisse, have met with swift government rescue efforts. We have so far managed to contain these from spreading to systemic risk. • The resolution of US debt ceiling crisis helped avoid a US default and a likely global financial crisis it may trigger. According to the USDebtClock.org, the US national debt is now $32.1 trillion, which is $700 billion more than the previous debt limit. • The Biden-McCarthy deal in federal spending limits ensures that government budget will not be cut. The federal government accounts for one quarter of the US economy. As bad as it may sound, government spending spree with borrowed money does contribute to near-term economic growth. We just kick the can forward and leave the debt burden to future generations. A Weak Dollar Supports Higher Oil Price Last year, the main investment theme of global commodities market was “Strong Dollar, Weak Commodities” and “High Rate, Low Price”. We are now in a reverse course. The US dollar index peaked at 114 in last September. While the Fed raised rates aggressively, other countries were slow in response, resulting in widening interest rate spreads between the US dollar and major foreign currencies. Since then, the Fed reduced the size of rate hikes from 75 bp to 50 and then 25, while UK and ECB caught up with bigger rate increases. The dollar index has fallen to 100 by April. The Fed paused rate increase in its June meeting. Although it emphasizes in fighting inflation, there is no question that the monetary tightening cycle is now in its last stretch. NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures With the key factors discussed above, plus the OPEC having incentive to cut output, I could see WTI going back to the $80-$90 range. December WTI (CLZ3) currently quotes $69.1 a barrel. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 barrels. Margin requirement is $5,000 to place one contract. Hypothetically, if Dec futures goes up to $80, one long contract would gain $10,900 (=10.9*1000). Theoretical return would be +118% (=10,900/5,000-1), excluding transaction fees. The risk of long WTI is falling oil price. If CLZ3 falls to $65, a long position would lose $4,100. This would result in a Margin Call, with the Exchange requiring the trader to deposit fund and bring the account balance back to $5,000. Alternatively, we could consider the Micro Crude Oil Futures ( CSE:MCL ). Contract size is one tenth of the standard CL contract. And so is the margin requirement. Everything else works the same. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
22
Daily Market Analysis - FRIDAY JUNE 23, 2023Events: UK - Manufacturing PMI USA - FOMC Member Mester Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bostic Speaks USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USA - Services PMI (Jun) During Thursday's trading session, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq displayed upward movement, propelled by the statements made by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell's hawkish stance indicated that the central bank's tightening cycle was not yet complete, instilling confidence in investors. However, he also emphasized the Fed's commitment to exercising caution in its approach to monetary policy. The Nasdaq, known for its heavy concentration of technology stocks, experienced significant gains. This surge in the index was primarily driven by the momentum stocks of prominent companies like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT). These tech giants showcased impressive performance, contributing to the overall positive sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the progress of the broader S&P 500 index was more modest compared to the Nasdaq's surge. While still displaying positive movement, the gains in the S&P 500 were not as pronounced as those in the technology-driven Nasdaq. In contrast to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) remained relatively unchanged. The Dow is composed of large, established companies from various sectors, including industrials and financials. However, during this particular trading session, these sectors had a minimal impact on the index's performance. Overall, the market sentiment on Thursday was largely influenced by Powell's statements, which offered a mixed perspective. While indicating a continued tightening of monetary policy, Powell also reassured investors about the Fed's cautious approach. This combination of factors led to varying degrees of upward movement in different indices, with the Nasdaq taking the lead, followed by the S&P 500, while the Dow remained relatively stable. NASDAQ indice daily chart S&P500 indice daily chart DJI indice daily chart During his appearance before the Senate Banking Committee for the semi-annual monetary policy testimony, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his stance on the likelihood of further interest rate hikes in the near future. This statement reaffirmed his belief in the need for continued tightening of monetary policy to address potential inflationary pressures and maintain economic stability. Powell's perspective on future rate hikes was echoed by Fed Governor Michelle Bowman during the session. The alignment of views between Powell and Bowman highlights the consensus within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential necessity of raising interest rates as part of their ongoing efforts to carefully manage the country's economic growth. The reaffirmation of this belief in further rate hikes signals the Fed's commitment to a proactive approach in addressing economic conditions and maintaining a balanced monetary policy. By emphasizing the likelihood of future interest rate increases, Powell and Bowman are providing transparency to market participants and indicating their intention to address inflationary pressures and promote sustainable economic expansion. As the Federal Reserve's monetary policy plays a crucial role in shaping financial markets and investor sentiment, the reaffirmation of the potential for rate hikes in the coming months will likely influence market dynamics and investor decision-making. Traders and market participants will closely monitor future statements and actions from the Federal Reserve for further insights into the timing and magnitude of potential interest rate adjustments. US initial jobless claims In the economic landscape, the stability of jobless claims at a 20-month high reflects persistent challenges in the labor market. This indicates ongoing difficulties for job seekers and potential concerns about employment conditions. Additionally, the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which tracks various indicators to gauge the future direction of the economy, recorded its 14th consecutive monthly decline. This suggests that the Federal Reserve's efforts to moderate economic growth are starting to have the intended impact of slowing down the overall pace of expansion. Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) has made a decision to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes during its 13th meeting under its tightening policy. This move has received mixed reactions from different stakeholders in the financial markets. Households, bond investors, stock investors, and foreign exchange (FX) traders have expressed their disapproval of the BoE's decision. This dissent stems from concerns about the potential impact of higher interest rates on borrowing costs, investment returns, and currency valuations. These stakeholders are closely monitoring the consequences of the BoE's actions and adjusting their strategies accordingly. The BoE's decision to hasten the pace of interest rate hikes highlights their focus on managing inflationary pressures and ensuring economic stability. However, the varied reactions from market participants reflect the complexity and potential trade-offs associated with monetary policy decisions. As the effects of the BoE's actions unfold, it will be crucial to monitor the implications for different sectors of the economy and assess how market dynamics and investor sentiment are influenced by these policy moves. UK interest rate Despite the stabilization of the 2-year gilt yield above the 5% threshold, it failed to receive a substantial boost. This can be attributed to concerns among market participants regarding the potential negative consequences of the Bank of England's (BoE) proposed additional interest rate hike of one full percentage point. These concerns mainly revolve around the potential impact on the British economy, particularly in the property market. The anticipation of such a significant rate increase has dampened investor sentiment, leading to a cautious approach. In parallel, the 10-year gilt yield has experienced a decline in response to the prevailing gloomy economic outlook. This decline reflects market expectations of a challenging economic environment and a lack of optimism regarding future growth prospects. The declining yield suggests that investors are seeking safer assets amid uncertainty, resulting in increased demand for long-term government bonds. The possibility of Britain avoiding a recession, let alone a property crisis, appears increasingly unlikely in light of these developments. The market sentiment is shaped by concerns about the potential adverse effects of higher interest rates on the property market, which is a key sector of the British economy. This sentiment is further fueled by the prevailing economic uncertainties, both domestically and globally. Turning to the FTSE 100, the index has approached the 7500 level. However, trend and momentum indicators are displaying negative signals, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. Additionally, the index is nearing oversold conditions, suggesting that it may be due for a potential rebound or period of consolidation. FTSE 100 daily chart The performance of large British companies has been negatively impacted by falling energy and commodity prices, influenced by a relatively weak reopening in China. This year, these factors have contributed to bearish pressure on the companies, and the situation has been further intensified by rising interest rates. Until there is a rebound in global energy prices, which is yet to materialize, the outlook for the FTSE 100 remains neutral to negative. The market will closely monitor any developments that could potentially improve the prospects for energy prices and subsequently impact the performance of the index. Interestingly, in response to the 50 basis point interest rate hike, the pound depreciated instead of appreciating, contrary to the typical expectation. This reaction reflects the sentiment of the market, which believes that the challenges and uncertainties facing Britain outweigh the potential positive effects that higher interest rates could generate. The prevailing concerns and uncertainties surrounding the British economy have outweighed the impact of the rate hike, leading to a depreciation of the pound. Turning to the gold market, prices experienced a slight decline on Friday, signaling a potentially challenging week and heading towards their worst performance since January. This decline can be attributed to the significant rate hike by the Bank of England, coupled with hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. These developments have raised concerns among investors about the prospect of tighter monetary conditions. Market participants will closely monitor any further signals and actions from central banks, as they have a significant influence on gold prices. XAU/USD daily chart Gold prices have reached a three-month low, breaking out of a narrow trading range observed over the past month, but unfortunately in a downward direction. This decline in gold prices indicates a shift in market sentiment and a potential weakening of demand for the precious metal. Looking ahead to Friday's session, investors will closely monitor the release of preliminary manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data. These indicators provide valuable insights into the health and performance of these sectors, serving as important economic barometers. The PMI data can influence market sentiment and investor confidence, as it offers a glimpse into the overall economic activity and potential growth prospects. In addition to the PMI data, market participants will also pay attention to speeches from several members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including Bullard, Bostic, and Mester. These speeches have the potential to shed further light on the monetary policy outlook and provide clarity on the Fed's stance and future actions. The comments made by FOMC members can significantly impact market expectations, especially regarding interest rates and overall monetary policy direction. Overall, Friday's session is expected to be influenced by the release of PMI data and the speeches from FOMC members. These events will shape market sentiment and provide crucial insights into the current economic conditions and the potential future trajectory of monetary policy. Investors will closely analyze these developments to make informed decisions and position themselves accordingly in the market.
by FOREXN1
10
Gold:the monetary commodity’s fate in the hands of central banksGold is arguably the most sensitive commodity to monetary policy. The metal operates more like a pseudo-currency than a regular commodity (a regular commodity’s price is driven by the balance of supply and demand, gold is driven by many of the macro determinants of currencies). After hiking rates every meeting since February 2022, the Federal Reserve (Fed) took a pause in June 2023. The central bank has lifted the upper bound of Fed Fund target rates from 0.25% to 5.25% over that timeframe, marking one of the most rapid rate hiking cycles in history. At times, the Fed was hiking in 0.75% clips. Rising interest rates were an extreme headwind for gold for most of this period. Can gold investors breathe a sigh of relief now? Is this a temporary pause, or a halt on rate hikes? Well, if Fed Fund futures are to believed, there may be one more rate hike by September 2023. If the participants of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are to be believed, there could be several more rate hikes (with the median expectation of these participants pointing to a terminal midpoint rate of 5.625%, that is, an upper bound of 5.75%). Professional economists1 seem less sure of such decisive action, with the median looking for no change in rates this year (and cuts commencing in Q1 2024). Senior Economist to WisdomTree, Jeremy Siegel, believes the Fed is done hiking and that alternative inflation metrics, which incorporate real time housing inputs, show inflation running at 1.4% instead of the official 4.1% in May 20232. Market inflation expectations are not falling away as fast as we would expect. Judging by the 5yr5yr swaps, longer-term market inflation expectations are actually rising modestly. Higher inflation tends to be gold-price supportive (other things being equal). After hitting an all-time high in 2022, central bank demand for gold has maintained strong momentum. Official sector gold buying in Q1 2023 was the largest on record for the first quarter (albeit lower than Q3 2022 and Q4 2022). A YouGov poll, sponsored by the World Gold Council3 , showed that developing market central banks are expecting to increase their gold reserve holdings and decrease their US dollar reserve holdings. With a lack of forceful stimulus from the Chinese government, and still elevated gold prices in Renminbi terms, we expect a slowing of retail demand in China. In fact, Shanghai premiums over the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) price slowed in May and remain low in June. Looking to WisdomTree’s gold price model, we can see that bond headwinds have clearly fallen away and US dollar depreciation (relative to a year ago) is offering gold some support rather than dragging prices lower. However, investor sentiment towards the metal has moderated since March 2023, when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and the shotgun marriage between UBS and Credit Suisse Banks was announced. With the passing of the US debt ceiling debacle, there aren’t any specific risks driving gold demand higher. However, general recession fears and the potential for unspecified financial sector hiccups are likely to keep gold demand moderately high as the metal serves well as a strategic asset in times of uncertainty. Source: 1 Bloomberg Survey of Professional Economists, June 2023. 2 The alternative measure calculates shelter inflation using Case Shiller Housing and Zillow rent which annualise at 0.5% instead of the 8% that is biasing the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI higher. 3 2023 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, May 2023.
COMEX:GC1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY JUNE 21, 2023As US stocks decline, the market retreats while investors eagerly await Powell's testimony. Key events: UK - CPI (YoY) (May) USA - Fed Chair Powell Testifies The trading session on Tuesday witnessed a decline in US stocks, marking a shift from the previous sustained rally as investors opted to secure their profits. This decision was influenced by concerns over weakening global demand, which contributed to a cautious sentiment prevailing at the beginning of the holiday-shortened week. One of the key events that investors are eagerly anticipating is Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's scheduled testimony before Congress on Wednesday. The outcome of this testimony has the potential to significantly impact market dynamics and serve as a major catalyst for market movement. All three major US equity indices concluded the session with negative results, although they did manage to recover slightly from the lows reached earlier in the day. Notably, the decline was influenced by the performance of oil super-majors such as Exxon Mobil Corp and Chevron Corp, which exerted downward pressure on both the S&P 500 and the Dow. The broader sell-off that occurred follows the Nasdaq's impressive winning streak, which had been the longest since March 2019, and the S&P 500's longest winning streak since November 2021. Despite the setback experienced on Tuesday, it is important to note that the benchmark S&P 500 has still achieved a notable gain of 14.3% year-to-date. This highlights the overall positive performance of the market thus far in the year, even with the temporary downturn observed in the recent trading session. S&P 500 daily chart Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming congressional testimony presents a platform for him to expand on the discussions surrounding monetary policy that took place during the recent Fed meeting. However, given the relatively short timeframe between these two events, it is improbable that Powell will introduce substantial new insights during this testimony. It is important to note that the Federal Reserve follows a data-dependent approach, making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Therefore, their next decision, slated for July 26, will likely be influenced by a range of factors, including the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on July 12 and the employment report on July 7. These upcoming economic indicators will play a significant role in shaping the Fed's decisions regarding monetary policy moving forward. GBP/USD daily chart The GBP/USD currency pair witnessed a substantial surge of 60 pips, propelling it above the key level of 1.2800. However, the pair later retraced to 1.2760. This price movement unfolded as market participants engaged in reassessment of the UK inflation data ahead of the London open on Wednesday. In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the UK surpassed market expectations by reaching a year-on-year figure of 8.7%, surpassing the anticipated 8.4%. This strong inflationary reading garnered attention and influenced the initial upward momentum in the GBP/USD pair. On the other hand, the Core CPI, which factors out the impact of volatile food and energy prices, aligned with analysts' predictions. It indicated a more modest inflation increase of 6.8% year-on-year, in line with market forecasts. The contrasting figures between the headline CPI and Core CPI may have contributed to the subsequent retreat in the GBP/USD pair, as market participants carefully considered the implications of these inflation data points. Such evaluations and reevaluations are common as traders and investors digest the latest economic indicators to adjust their positions in the market. As the trading session progresses, market participants will continue to monitor developments and additional economic data releases to gauge the potential impact on the GBP/USD currency pair. UK CPI The GBP/USD buyers are currently facing challenges as the US Dollar continues to exhibit strength, extending its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day, despite recent lack of significant action. This poses a hurdle to the bullish outlook on the GBP/USD pair, even with the positive UK inflation data that supports the Bank of England (BoE) hawks. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains relatively stable around the 102.60 level, maintaining its four-day uptrend without displaying a strong inclination to advance further. The recent resilience of the US Dollar can be attributed to the hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve policymakers, particularly the nominees, as well as robust housing data from the United States. Additionally, concerns regarding geopolitical tensions between the US and China are weighing on market sentiment, further bolstering the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar. In light of these factors, the GBP/USD buyers are encountering resistance in their efforts to drive the pair higher. The prevailing strength of the US Dollar, supported by hawkish comments and positive economic data, poses a challenge to the bullish sentiment on the GBP/USD pair. Traders and investors will closely monitor further developments, including central bank communications and geopolitical developments, to assess the potential impact on the GBP/USD pair moving forward. US Dollar Currency Index Furthermore, during the course of the night, the Australian dollar experienced notable and noteworthy fluctuations, which consequently led to a substantial decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate, edging closer to the critical level of 0.6800. The downward trajectory of the Australian dollar was triggered by the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) most recent policy meeting held on June 6th. To the surprise of market participants, the RBA opted to implement an additional 25 basis points hike, thereby elevating the policy rate to 4.10%. This updated guidance on the likelihood of future rate hikes was specifically aimed at attaining the desired inflation target. AUD/USD daily chart Nevertheless, the recently disseminated minutes of the meeting have given rise to an array of uncertainties with respect to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) forthcoming stance on augmenting interest rates. Within the aforementioned minutes, it was brought to light that the RBA extensively deliberated on the prospect of temporarily halting any rate increases during their most recent policy meeting. However, after careful consideration, the RBA concluded that the arguments presented were intricately poised, yet slightly inclined towards implementing a rate hike.
by FOREXN1
7
GOLD: awaiting the FOMC decisionIn a few hours we will know if FOMC decides to raise interest rates by 25bp or if there will be a pause in monetary policy. Having said that, if we look at 1H chart we still have the same technical structure (see analysis below), which is still valid at the moment. With this in mind it would be great if TVC:GOLD triggered a swing as shown on chart (first bearish then bullish), I say that because I really like the Pin Bar at 1,971 . What will happen on gold market? In the short term it's hard to say, but today's session will certainly be our driver for a few sessions/weeks. PREVIOUS ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS (Long term) (Click on Chart below) PRE-FOMC ANALYSIS (Click on Chart below) Trade with care! Like 🚀 if my analysis is useful. Cheers!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheAnonymousBanker
3
FOMC REPORT : Stocks, Bonds, BTC & GoldHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts 📈📉 Did you miss the 2023 June 13/14 FOMC meeting? No worries, CryptoChecks' got you covered. Here's a summary of what happened and how the outcome of this meeting may affect the respective markets. First, let's clearly understand the FOMC meeting and it's importance to investors. The Federal Reserve, also known as the Fed, is the central banking system of the United States. It guides the country's monetary policy and influences the economy. The Fed's announcements and statements are closely watched by traders and investors because they can have a significant impact on financial markets. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a committee within the Fed that makes decisions on monetary policy. It consists of twelve members, including the seven members of the Board of Governors and five Reserve Bank presidents. They meet eight times a year to discuss and set policies. FOMC meetings are important events for traders because any changes in interest rates can affect various economic factors, such as employment, inflation, and exchange rates. The meetings occur every six weeks, and some include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and a press conference by the Fed Chair. Traders pay close attention to the Fed's decisions and statements because they provide valuable information about the state of the economy and future policy changes. Now, let's look at what was said in this FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve decided to pause its series of interest rate hikes at its June meeting, following ten consecutive increases. While the central bank expressed optimism about curbing inflation, the battle is not yet over, and further rate hikes may be on the horizon. Important facts: 🏛 The Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) announced that the federal funds target rate would remain unchanged within a range of 5.0% to 5.25% during the June meeting. This marks the first policy meeting since the start of the Fed's tightening cycle in March 2022 in which interest rates were not raised. 🏛 The Fed confirmed its plan to continue reducing its balance sheet by allowing up to $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to roll off each month, employing quantitative tightening to combat inflation. 🏛 Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the challenges during the press conference and highlighted the uncertainties surrounding the effects of monetary policy on the economy and potential credit tightening headwinds. Despite the pause, it does not indicate the completion of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and further increases may be necessary. 🏛 The Fed has been attempting to navigate the challenge of curbing inflation without causing a recession by gradually raising interest rates. Higher rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, slowing down economic activity. 🏛 The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.1% annually in May, down from the 4.9% gain in April, which was the highest in 40 years. The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, increased by 4.7% in April, slightly up from March but lower than the 2022 peak of 5.3%. The long-term target for core PCE inflation is 2%. 🏛 The tight U.S. labor market has posed challenges in the fight against inflation. In May, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs, surpassing expectations, and wages increased by 4.3% year-over-year. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% but remained near historic lows. 🏛 Powell indicated that further rate increases might be necessary to gradually bring inflation down to the 2% target. _____________________________ Overall, the potential impact on stocks, commodities, and bonds could look as follow: Stocks: The impact on stocks can be more nuanced. In general, a steady interest rate environment can be positive for stocks. Lower rates can make equities more attractive as an investment option compared to bonds or other fixed-income assets. It can encourage borrowing for business expansion and investment, potentially boosting corporate earnings and stock prices. However, if the market was anticipating a rate cut or an increase, a decision to keep rates unchanged might cause some short-term volatility or adjustments in stock prices as investors reassess their expectations. This could positively impact stock prices, especially in sectors that are sensitive to interest rates, such as technology, consumer discretionary, and housing. Commodities: When interest rates remain steady, it can provide stability and potentially support commodity prices. Lower interest rates generally make borrowing cheaper, which can stimulate economic activity and increase demand for commodities. Conversely, higher interest rates can have the opposite effect, potentially dampening demand and putting downward pressure on commodity prices. Bonds: The pause in interest rate hikes may be favorable for bond prices in the short term. When interest rates remain stable or decline, existing bonds with higher coupon rates become relatively more attractive, leading to increased demand and potentially higher bond prices. Lower interest rates also reduce borrowing costs for companies, which may improve their creditworthiness and decrease the risk of default, making corporate bonds more appealing to investors. Now, you may be wondering to yourself... despite the above; why is Gold (and BTC) falling instead of rising? 💭💭💭 EXTRA for EXPERTS: The fact that the US House of Representatives have passed US debt ceiling bill five days ahead of the deadline could be a reason behind the falling price of Gold. With this in mind, it becomes easier to see why the gold market could have slipped. Still, rampant inflation will probably keep a floor under the gold market and as such; a short term drop to next immediate support zone is the most probable. While the true utility of the metal as a hedge against rising prices is a subject of endless economic debate, many investors insist that it is. It’s notable that prices remain close to historic high levels despite much higher interest rates more or less everywhere. The backdrop of war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and the durability of post-covid recovery are also clearly supportive of perceived ‘haven assets’ like gold, silver and bitcoin. Is it possible that the large, corporate investors are just countertrading the bullish retail investors in the commodities market at this point? The odds of a July rate hike are at about 61%, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Investors anticipate a 61.5% chance of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by a quarter point at its July 25-26 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The metric hasn’t moved much since Tuesday, even as the central bank indicated in its dot plot on Wednesday that two more rate hikes are coming up. To understand the relationship between commodities, cryptocurrencies, bonds, and stocks can help you clearly plan your next move after the FOMC meeting. Commodities and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between commodity prices and stock prices. When commodity prices rise, it can lead to higher production costs for companies, affecting profit margins and potentially dampening stock performance. Conversely, when commodity prices decline, it can lower input costs for companies, potentially benefiting their profitability and supporting stock prices. Cryptocurrencies and Stocks: Limited Relationship: Cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, have gained prominence as a separate asset class and are not directly tied to traditional stock markets. As such, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and stocks is generally limited. However, during periods of market volatility or significant news events, there can be some short-term correlations as investors seek alternative assets or sentiment spills over from one market to another. But in terms of long-term correlations, the two asset classes have shown relatively independent behavior. Bonds and Stocks: Inverse Relationship: Bonds and stocks typically exhibit an inverse relationship. When interest rates rise, bond yields increase, making fixed-income investments more attractive relative to stocks. This can lead to a shift in investor preferences from stocks to bonds, potentially putting downward pressure on stock prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, bond yields decrease, making stocks relatively more attractive, which can contribute to higher stock prices. The relationship between bonds and commodities is typically more complex and can be influenced by several factors: Inflation Expectations: Commodities are often considered an inflation hedge because their prices tend to rise during inflationary periods. When inflation expectations increase, commodity prices may go up, which can lead to higher inflation-adjusted yields on bonds. In this case, there may be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields. Economic Growth: Commodities, especially those related to industrial sectors like energy and metals, are sensitive to economic growth. When the economy is booming, demand for commodities tends to rise, potentially leading to higher prices. This can be associated with higher inflation expectations and upward pressure on bond yields. Hence, there can be a positive correlation between commodities and bond yields during periods of economic expansion. Safe-Haven Demand : Bonds, especially government bonds, are considered safe-haven assets that investors flock to during times of uncertainty or market turbulence. In contrast, commodities, which are more directly influenced by supply and demand dynamics, may not exhibit the same safe-haven characteristics. Therefore, during risk-off periods when investors seek safety, there can be an inverse relationship between commodities and bond yields. Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost: Changes in interest rates can impact both bonds and commodities. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding commodities, which do not pay interest or dividends, increases. This can potentially lead to downward pressure on commodity prices. Conversely, when interest rates decline, the opportunity cost of holding commodities decreases, which can be supportive of commodity prices. In this case, there can be an inverse relationship between bond yields and commodity prices. _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We appreciate your support ! CryptoCheck _____________________ AMEX:SPY TVC:US10Y TVC:GOLD INDEX:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT NYSE:GOLD CURRENCYCOM:GOLD
AMEX:SPY
by CryptoCheck-
29
Bitcoin Reactions to FED Rate Rises#Bitcoin, FED Rate Rises, US Inflation index & Key moments For me, The FED interest Rate raise had little Direct effect on BTC PA What DID have bigger impact were the effects on companies like LUNA and FTX ( though that was very possibly Always going to Crash) - the increase in Loan repayments being the Cause of instability and so people got cold Feet BTC PA is nearing the point of a full recovery from these Company crashes The REAL Crunch comes When the FED do decide to Pivot, Which Powell has suggested, may not be Till next year. Pivots have historically brought Markets Down shortly after Next year we have #Bitcoin Halving, habitually a time of Large Price rises for Bitcoin, leading to ATH TradFi and Crypto are at War, literally. Will the FED, ( The DXY support Group) try and use the Pivot to keep BTC price down ? Or will they be too late ? I honestly cannot wait to find out and personally, I think they Will but they Will Fail, COMPLETELY
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
BluetonaFX - GBPUSD 13/06/2023 Triangle Formation Update Hi Traders! PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW.  With the Federal Reserve pausing to increase interest rates for now but hinting at two more increases in the near future, the markets signalled this as US dollar strength. Our GBPUSD triangle broke to the upside today before the interest rate announcement and almost broke the 1.27000 level, as we noted in our original idea. We reached as high as 1.26993 and have pulled back since then. The new candle forming on the 1D chart will either be a retest of the triangle trendline that was broken or a continuation candle to retest the 1.27000 level to see if this level can be broken with a possible further bullish push to the upside. If the new candle does retest the trendline, it is very important that there is enough buying demand at the trendline to make sure we do not end back below the trendline. If we do go back below the trendline, then we will most likely go back into the range zone of the triangle (highlighted on the chart). Please do not forget to support us by liking, following, and commenting on our posts; this helps us greatly. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
S&P500 Crash: Trillions Vaporized in Titanic Fed-Inflated BubbleThe S&P 500 is facing a significant correction due to the potential bursting of the Federal Reserve's asset bubble, which is currently driving its artificially inflated values. Amidst signs of overheating markets, soaring valuations, and unsustainable monetary policies, the equity market is on the brink of a major downturn. The 2008 financial crisis, a debacle of epic proportions, wreaked havoc on a worldwide scale, decimating trillions of dollars in wealth. Subsequently, the COVID-19 pandemic, an unanticipated black swan event, exacerbated the situation, warranting an even more vigorous response from monetary authorities. To offset these crises' debilitating effects, the Federal Reserve rapidly escalated its balance sheet from a figure shy of $1 trillion in 2008 to a staggering excess of $8 trillion by 2021. This monumental expansion was effected primarily via the purchase of government securities and other asset classes, essentially serving as the economic bellows to reignite the embers of the economy and replenish market confidence. My prediction lies at the levels waiting beneath us including the 2.618, 4.236, 6.854, and 11.09.... A notable Fibonacci cluster is at 2,400... onky time will tell.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelBsul
11
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC – 14/06/23 This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price. We’ll start by saying we’ve had a decent week so far as well as month and will not be wanting to give anything back to the market. For that reason, we’re sharing the levels we have for the potential move and the regions to look for a reaction in price. It is expected to move, especially during the press conference which will take place after the statement. We would say best practice is to wait for them to take the price where they want, let is settle and look for signs of a reversal before jumping into a trade. We’ve seen a big range forming here over the last few weeks which has been used to accumulate orders, maybe now enough for Gold to find its feet and make the move many traders are anticipating. We have the immediate levels of 1950-55 order region which we are now above and potentially looking for the price to settle pre-event around here. We have the higher levels of 1980-85 which we were looking for on the KOG Report so target region for longs that are held from below could be around that level. If price is driven up into that region, we would be looking for resistance higher to potentially see a reaction in price and a confirmed reversal before even attempting to short it. On the flip side, we have order region 1930-35 and below that the extreme level of 1915-07 on the break. If the price is driven down, then we will potentially be looking here for a reaction in price and upon confirmed reversal signs look to take the long trade back up. As we’ve said above, we’re sharing our view with everyone but please do your own research. We’re not likely to enter any new trades, rather let the runners we have open run or close at break even. The best trades and set ups will come once the price has been taken to it’s level. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
6
BluetonaFX - EURUSD 12/06/2023 Key Levels UpdateHi Traders! PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW.  Our vector level of 1.08047 is still holding; we reached this level yesterday but failed to break and close above the level. Traders are still attempting to break and close above this level today, so we will see if it happens this time.  The volume in the markets this morning is very thin, so please take caution as we have the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement later today. Please do not forget to support us by liking, following, and commenting on our posts; this helps us greatly. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
DXY Outlook FOMC Prep 14th JuneWill the Federal Reserve finally decide to pause on further rate hikes, keeping interest rates at 5.25%, or will the Feds hike rates one final time to take rates to 5.50%? There has been much speculation about the likely outcome of the US FOMC regarding its interest rate decision. Especially with the most recent CPI data being released at 4.0% (Expected 4.1% Previous 4.9%) a significant slowdown in inflation growth is being witnessed and it is likely to play towards encouraging the Feds to pause on further hikes. Although the June unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%, the NFP was still significantly stronger than expected at 339k. There are several technical analysis factors applying the downward pressures on the DXY, in particular, the downward trendline, 50MA and the 103.40 resistance level. If the Feds does pause on rates, I'd be looking for the DXY to trade down to the support area of 102.80 and 103, which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
DXY: It won't happen, but if it does... 😱More than 97% of analysts say the FOMC won't raise interest rates tomorrow, but what will happen to Dollar Index, FX:EURUSD , TVC:GOLD and FRED:SP500 if Powell decides to hike interest rates by 25bp instead? Most likely, tomorrow's announcement will be our driver at least for the whole summer, because this event will have a strong impact on the market. So we just have to wait 24 hours, and we will have the verdict! ...And you? what do you think?
TVC:DXY
by TheAnonymousBanker
Is the Worst OVER? This is the differential of 10yr vs 1yr US bond which represents long term against short term yield on sovereign debt, and those you don't know, short term bonds are used by central banks to control interest rates(amazing uh? the FED does not actually print money) therefore they do use bonds as a tool to control interest rates which then controls the S&D of capital. As you can see, we are back at a differential which is extremely low, back to energy crisis levels. However, we seem to be already at very low levels, does that mean THE WORST HAS COME? What is going to happen to the stock market? A very quick and personal thought to sum everything up as I do not consider myself an expert macroeconomist: the market is efficient, meaning that the current price on every single security is traded at all the current public information that is available and if something keeps going up, it means that expectation are in favor of it moving higher. Hope that explains what I wanted to say, Feel free to ask question, be safe!
TVC:US10Y
by EWFAlessio
BluetonaFX - EURUSD KEY LEVELSHi Traders! Please see our new levels for EURUSD below. Vector Level: 1.08047 Vector Level: 1.09298 Anchor Level: 1.04833 Apex Level: 1.10956 The recent price action on the 1D chart is telling us that EURUSD is looking for a direction to continue in. We have been stuck in a range (highlighted on the chart) for the past two weeks or so, and key decisions and announcements this week from the ECB and the Federal Reserve will most likely take us in a certain direction. To the upside, if there is any USD weakness or EUR strength, our first vector level is at 1.08047; we have not been above this level for almost a month. If the market breaks and closes above this level, then we have the next vector level at 1.09298 and then our apex level at 1.10956. If there is EUR weakness or USD strength and we stay below 1.08047, then it is very likely that we will target our anchor level of 1.04833. This anchor level is a very important level, as we have not been below it this year. This trading week will be very busy with all of the upcoming fundamental announcements, and there are bound to be big market moves, so make sure you trade safely and responsibly. Please do not forget to support us by liking, following, and commenting on our posts; this helps us greatly. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
BluetonaFX - USDJPY CRITICAL WEEK FOR THE US DOLLARHi Traders! This is a critical week for the US dollar. The US dollar's long term direction heavily weighs on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and their statement this coming Wednesday. Here on the USDJPY 3H chart, the price action shows that since the 140.934 high shown on the chart, the sellers have taken over, and we have had numerous attempts to break back above 140, but have failed to do so.  That being said, traders are still trying to push upward. As you can see on the chart, we have higher highs and higher lows on the price swings and have now established an upward price channel. Depending on the outcome of the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday, if there is a positive outlook on the US dollar, we may get a break above the 140 area with a possible continuation to test the 141 level again. If we do not get this, then a break and close below the 139 area is likely, and our long term outlook on the US dollar will change to bearish and we will look for opportunities to the downside. This trading week will be very busy with all of the upcoming fundamental announcements, and there are bound to be big market moves, so make sure you trade safely and responsibly. Please remember to like, follow, and comment, as this helps us greatly. We appreciate your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we would be expecting to adapt our plan over the week as we were expecting the range and choppy price action to continue. We suggested sticking with the same plan and levels from the week prior which worked very well to give us the trades within the range. The short-term swing we were expecting for the move to the downside came in the later part of the week after we managed to take the long trade back up into range high giving us a short opportunity we wanted. So, we wanted to short down, then long up before shorting down, instead, we got the long up, short down and long up. A decent week on the markets again but a very frustrating range to have to deal with. So, what can we expect in the week ahead? For this week we can expect some more choppy and whipsawing price action during the first half due to FOMC being on Wednesday. We’re expecting them to want to clear the voids and grab liquidity from the highs and the lows, so for that reason we’re going to start by suggesting we continue to scalp the range for the first initial sessions while we assess the price action. We’re then going to be looking for the two key levels to hold price, either from above to go short, or, from below to go long. Key levels are the order region 50-55 with the break below taking us into 30-35 previous order region which are levels we would expect to see a reaction in price. Resistance levels now stand at 80-85 key level and above the institutional level 90-95 which price needs to remain below for this to continue with another decline. So, in summary, we have a potential range now forming between 40-45 support and the resistance levels of 80-85 with extension into 90-95 for the spike. Scalps in-between with KOG’s bias of the day and the levels with the view to take the longer position from the levels illustrated on the chart. Its going to be another difficult and frustrating week to navigate so please exercise patience in your trading, wait for the price to come to your levels, don’t force the trades just to be in the market. Always remember, cash is also a position in the market. We’re going to take it easy until FOMC, smaller lots and smaller captures before we hunt for the trade of the week. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
23
EURUSD 05/06/2023 TRADING LEVELS UPDATEHi Traders, PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW. Rounding off the week with an update to our forecasted EURUSD levels on the 1D chart. After the bounce from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level, there was a bullish push upwards (highlighted on the chart) and we have now pulled back near our forecasted Vector Resistance 1 level at 1.08047. The trading range on EURUSD was quite small this week as we have traders waiting for both the ECB & Federal Reserve interest rate decision announcement next week. We will continue to analyse the markets and will have new levels for you for the upcoming trading week. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
DXY and the Dollar TrapIn global finance, everything is relative. For now, there is no good answer to the perennial question: If not for the US dollar, then what? That is why, despite all its flaws, the dollar remains the ultimate haven currency. And the US Dollar Index (“DXY”) measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies of USA’s major trading partners. The DXY measures USD performance against currency majors. Euro, Japanese Yen, and the British Pound represent more than 80% of aggregate weight. Intriguingly, the absence of emerging majors such as the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and the Australian Dollar (AUD), stands out. The DXY will likely be modified in the future to reflect shifting global dynamics. History of the DXY The DXY was first created in 1973 after the establishment of the Bretton Woods agreement which abandoned the gold standard. The index has since been modified just once when the Euro was established as the official currency of the EU. The DXY commenced with a value of 100 in 1973. The Index above 100 signals that USD is stronger than the basket compared to 1973 values. Meanwhile an index below 100 points to a weak dollar. The current DXY value of 104 indicates that the USD is 4% above the value of the basket relative to its value in 1973. During periods of major global financial upheavals, the DXY tends to drift away from 100. In the 1980s as the Fed hiked rates aggressively, the dollar’s value soared. Eventually, the dollar was intentionally weakened in an historical agreement known as the Plaza Accord. Why would the US weaken its own currency? In short, a strong currency is not always a good thing. A strong dollar made US goods less viable in global markets and led to a sharp increase in the US trade deficit. As such, weakening the dollar was in the best interests of not just US’s trading partners but also the US. Another period of upheaval for the DXY was the 2008 global financial crisis. The USD was in crisis when Lehman Brothers collapsed amid the US housing crisis. The confidence in the dollar was shaken. Comparatively, other countries were less severely affected. This pushed the DXY to its lowest level of 71. Excluding these exceptional periods of time, the DXY trades around its base value. Movements in DXY are at times drive by policy changes in the US or its partner countries such as Japan, EU, UK, Canada, Switzerland, and Sweden. The real elephant in the room is the Fed policy. Fed decisions have an outsized effect on the DXY. The DXY is not very volatile. Its 30-day annualized rolling volatility ranges between 5 and 10. However, major economic events can lead to a rise in volatility. Volatility spikes during periods of global crises or major events in the US (Fed Hikes) or EU (EU Debt Crisis) with both currencies having major weightage in the index. DXY CORRELATION WITH OTHER ASSET CLASSES Fed Funds Rate Although not tightly correlated, Fed Funds rate has a major impact on the DXY. Higher rates make the dollar more attractive which leads to it strengthening. However, as other major central banks usually move in tandem with the Fed, rates in the partner countries also rise dampening the buoyancy in DXY. Fed policy action has a major impact on the DXY at the beginning of shifts in policy. However, this effect soon fades as markets price in terminal rates according to expectations. Fed & ECB Policy Divergence The divergence of policy between ECB and Fed has a major impact on the DXY. As policies start to diverge (correlation between rates starts to decline), DXY experiences large directional moves. 2Y Treasury Yields As treasury yields are derived from Fed Funds rate, the correlation between DXY and 2Y constant maturity treasury notes is similar. In general, both are positively correlated. The correlation breaks during periods where rates grind lower, but the USD continues to rise. Case in point is the experience of 2020. When the US Fed drove rates to zero, the US dollar soared as the only credible haven. This is the classic dollar trap. Furthermore, DXY and treasury yield correlation can break due to effects of economic policy action. For instance, in 2018, DXY remained muted despite rising treasury yields as markets were confident of the terminal rate and the Fed not hiking rates very aggressively. FOMC MEETINGS AND THE DOLLAR INDEX FOMC meetings decide the fate of interest rates. Typically, decisions move in tandem with expectations. But when FOMC decisions diverge from consensus, impact on the DXY can be large. For instance, in its May 2023 meeting, markets anticipated the Fed to pause its aggressive hiking campaign against a backdrop of regional banking crisis. However, Fed mercilessly cranked up another 25bps driving DXY higher. WHAT’S UP AT THE NEXT FOMC MEETING? CME FedWatch tool highlights the probability of changes in FOMC rate as measured by 30-day Fed Fund futures pricing data. For the next FOMC meeting on the 14th of June, CME FedWatch tool points to an 80% probability of no hike. For the meeting on 26th July, markets are pricing a 55% probability of a 25bps hike. This would take rates to 5.25%-5.5% which is expected to be the terminal rate. In case Fed decides to hike in the June meeting, it could lead to a sharper upward move in the DXY. COMMITMENT OF TRADERS REPORT The Commitment of Traders report shows weekly changes in open interest by investor category. Institutional investors expect DXY to move higher as both managed money and small speculators have increased their net long positioning over the last three weeks. TRADE SETUP Market expectations have moved wildly from rate hike to no hike multiple times over the past two weeks. Cooling inflation in April, signs of a weakening job market, anemic services data, credit tightening are shaping market consensus for a rate pause in June. However, if May inflation data, which is due a day before the FOMC meeting paints a different picture or the job market continues to remain strong, the Fed may throw in another rate hike. Anticipating Fed move is difficult. Investors deploying a long straddle can potentially lock in gains from large moves in DXY if FOMC moves against consensus. A long straddle is a delta-neutral options strategy that can be used to benefit from rising volatility in options. It involves simultaneously going long call and long put at the same delta. Delta-neutral makes the structure directionally agnostic to upside or downside moves. Loss on one leg will be offset by gains from the other leg when the underlying moves sharply. Straddles are powerful in that they are long Vega which makes it gain not only from a directional move but also from volatility expansion. With uncertainty looming around Fed outcomes, volatility will likely spike heading into the meeting. A delta neutral strategy would be difficult to run directly on DXY futures due to slim liquidity for these options on ICE. As such, investors could consider long straddles in CME Euro FX options, CME Japanese Yen options, and CME GBP options to obtain similar exposure. These three majors represent 83% of the DXY and largely drive major moves in the DXY. The above charts show the payoff for the straddle on each of these individual options. ATM strikes can provide higher profit potential with higher risk potential. However, ~25 delta options have cheaper premium due to which the loss is limited at a lower level, consequently, 25 delta straddle would also require a larger price movement before the position is in the money. Moreover, the profit potential on these would also be lower due to wider strike levels. A notable exception to these is the Japanese Yen put options which have noticeably lower IVs and are thus cheaper. Each of these pairs would have to move ~1.5% over the next two weeks for the position to make money. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
TVC:DXY
by mintdotfinance
1