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XAUUSD Technical Analysis 23.03.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish at 1970.100 forming new Daily Support at 1940.600. – Buys on close above 1974.500 targeting 4h Resistance at 1981.500, Leaving Runners to the Daily Resistance formed at 1988.500. – Sells on close below 1961.000 targeting 1h previous Resistance formed at 1953.500, Leaving Runners to the 1h Support at 1946.200. – We have High Impact News data ahead on the New York session with Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales
OANDA:XAUUSD
by SalimFX20
GBP & Gold Reaction to UK Inflation and US Rate HikeTwo significant events have occurred within the past 12 hours, causing both GBPUSD and gold prices to surge. The first event was the unexpected rise in UK inflation, which jumped from 10.1% in January to 10.4% in February 2023, marking the first increase in four months. The primary factor behind this increase was the soaring food and drink prices, which surged at the fastest pace in 45 years. This inflation reading may fuel arguments that the Bank of England needs to boost interest rates again. However, the data might have arrived too late to impact the Bank's interest rate decision, which is due tomorrow. Nevertheless, the GBP rallied against the USD, before subsiding, and then rallying again on the news of the second event. The second event occurred an hour ago, with the US Federal Reserve announcing its latest interest rate decision, which included a 25-basis-point hike. While most of the market had anticipated this move, some participants believed that the Fed might pause its rate hikes. In the post-decision address, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that recent economic indicators, particularly job data, have come in stronger than expected. However, Powell noted that the recent turmoil in the banking sector should result in tighter lending conditions, which will help combat the robust economic data. Nonetheless, Powell added that it was too early to determine how monetary policy should respond to the recent banking crisis, but it will play a role in future rate hike decisions. Gold is following a similar path to the GBP/USD and appears to be encountering some resistance at $1,970.
by BlackBull_Markets
EUR/USD Moves Towards 1.0800 Ahead of Fed's DecisionThe EUR/USD pair has advanced modestly on Wednesday as investors remain sidelined ahead of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0790 zone, 0.23% above its opening price. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve decision to be released at 18:00 GMT, which will be accompanied by the statement and the dot plot with updated members’ projections. Half an hour later, Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at a press conference. Hours ahead of the verdict, the CME FedWatch Tool points to a 25 bps rate hike as the most likely outcome (89.3%) versus no change (10.7%). While the banking turmoil seems contained, at least at the time being, the Fed is far away from taming inflation. A 50 bps rate increase seems out of the table, so if the Fed surprises with such an increase, the dollar could rally across the board. Investors will also scrutinize the statement, the dot plot and Powell’s wording. While the technical picture becomes less relevant ahead of the highly anticipated decision, the EUR/USD maintains a bullish short-term bias according to indicators on the daily chart while the price continues to rise above its main moving averages. The EUR/USD pair needs to reclaim the 1.0800 zone to pave the way higher, with 1.0900 –psychological level and 50% retracement of the 1.2266-0.9535 decline – as the next target and critical barrier on the upside. On the flip side, immediate supports are seen at 1.0700 and the 20-day SMA at 1.0640. The broader perspective will remain positive if the pair manages to hold above 1.0500 after the Fed event.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
FED Interest Rates and it's mechanism BINANCE:BTCUSDT In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions' reserve requirements. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets. The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is calculated as the effective median interest rate of overnight federal funds transactions during the previous business day. It is published daily by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The federal funds target range is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule. The Federal Reserve uses open market operations to bring the effective rate into the target range. The target range is chosen in part to influence the money supply in the U.S. economy Financial institutions are obligated by law to hold liquid assets that can be used to cover sustained net cash outflows. Among these assets are the deposits that the institutions maintain, directly or indirectly, with a Federal Reserve Bank. An institution that is below its required liquidity can address this temporarily by borrowing from institutions that have Federal Reserve deposits in excess of the requirement. The interest rate that a borrowing bank pays to a lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the effective federal funds rate. The Federal Open Market Committee regularly sets a target range for the federal funds rate according to its policy goals and the economic conditions of the United States. It directs the Federal Reserve Banks to influence the rate toward that range with open market operations or adjustments to their own deposit interest rates. Although this is commonly referred to as "setting interest rates," the effect is not immediate and depends on the banks' response to money market conditions. Separately, the Federal Reserve lends directly to institutions through its discount window, at a rate that is usually higher than the federal funds rate. Future contracts in the federal funds rate trade on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), and the financial press refer to these contracts when estimating the probabilities of upcoming FOMC actions. When the FOMC wishes to reduce interest rates they will increase the supply of money by buying government securities. When additional supply is added and everything else remains constant, the price of borrowed funds – the federal funds rate – falls. Conversely, when the Committee wishes to increase the federal funds rate, they will instruct the Desk Manager to sell government securities, thereby taking the money they earn on the proceeds of those sales out of circulation and reducing the money supply. When supply is taken away and everything else remains constant, the interest rate will normally rise. The Federal Reserve has responded to a potential slow-down by lowering the target federal funds rate during recessions and other periods of lower growth. In fact, the Committee's lowering has recently predated recessions, in order to stimulate the economy and cushion the fall. Reducing the federal funds rate makes money cheaper, allowing an influx of credit into the economy through all types of loans.
Education
by INVESTRONE
3
BTCUSDIn the daily time frame, with increasing expectations of a 0.25% increase in interest rates or even keeping it constant due to the financial crisis of banks in America, Bitcoin will cross the heavy resistance of 25,000 and at the level of 28,500 in lower times, we can see the weakness of the trend, which can indicate The market rest for the next move according to today's economic data and Powell's speech. If the level of 25000 is rejected, it can be the key support for the correction to continue the upward trend, but with the positive impact of the result of tonight's session, the levels of 32000 and 38000 are the next targets of this accelerated movement, which seems to be different from the very bullish expectations. In the market, it is necessary to continue the upward movement of a correction, which Mr. Pavel can have a surprise for the market. (You have to see if he has the phone in his hand or not 😉)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MrHunterTradeInsight
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/22/2023 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2023 - PR High: 12874.75 - PR Low: 12862.25 - NZ Spread: 28.0 Evening Stats (As of 12:15 AM) - Weekend Gap: N/A - 8/19 Session Gap: -0.04% (open > 13237) - Session Open ATR: 260.79 - Volume: 14K - Open Int: 214K - Trend Grade: Bear - From ATH: -23.2% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 12959 - Mid: 12392 - Short: 11820 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQM2023Long
by mv3trader5
XauUsd Fed's Rate Decision | Will it retest or drop below 1915Last week 1915 was a decisive resistance for price to reach 1990. Upcoming Fed Decision, Will it retest 1915 support or will it trade below 1915? Upcoming Fed Rate Decision, I am confident Fed will rise Interest rate despite having a dilemma like SVB. However, it pausible Fed will stop interest rate at 5% IF inflation rate in bearish This is based on my personal opinion. momentum. Recent date show Inflation rate is at 6.04%. It was peak at 9.06% in June 2022. Drop 3.02% in 8 month. We will expect another 8 months or less until inflation lowered to 2% or 3%.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Khairi_RL
2
XauUsd Fed's Rate Decision | Will it retest or drop below 1915Last week 1915 was a decisive resistance for price to reach 1990. Upcoming Fed Decision, Will it retest 1915 support or will it trade below 1915? Upcoming Fed Rate Decision, I am confident Fed will rise Interest rate despite having a dilemma like SVB. However, it pausible Fed will stop interest rate at 5% IF inflation rate in bearish momentum. This is based on my personal opinion. Recent date show Inflation rate is at 6.04%. It was peak at 9.06% in June 2022. Drop 3.02% in 8 month. We will expect another 8 months or less until inflation lowered to 2% or 3%.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Khairi_RL
DXY and the FED coming tomorrowImagine YOU were the FED You have enough Liquidity to bail out the important banks, been setting it up for days. The Shrimp banks can default, happened before in 2008 and the DXY INCREASED in Value You HATE Crypto, its taking Your money Increase Rates by 50- job done ? This is a very real scenaro as far as I am concerned. Traditional finance is under attack by Crypto. Traditonalists will run to save banks but , if you think about it, WHY ? Banks are a prime example of "Filter down" but most of the time, it is more a trickle is anything at all..and THAT is what people like the FEDERAL RESERVE ( A PRIVATE organisation, NOT governmental) are tryin gto protect.Their monopoly. There has NEVER been a cradable challenge to the Banking industry - Now there is and it is WAR As mnetioned above, 2009 saw many banks collapse but look at the DXY...It Rose 22% over the next 12 months. DXY did not suffer in anyway and this could happen again and, in fact, is VERY likely to. And THAT is the FED's job - thats what it does. So, Will they raise the rates tomorrow ? 12? 50 ? 75 ? The mission is to Kill Crypto or save a Business ? We will find out tomorrow
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
EurUsd Fed's Rate Decision | Sideway or Downtrend? My personal opinion on price movement based on Fed Decision. Fed Decision: 1. Interest rate Increase (Most likely) USD temporarily become strong. Price will drop until 1.05300 and slowly climb back to 1.07500 2. No Changes in Interest Rate (Pausible) Price will retest at 1.06500 or Will possibly break resistance 1.08000 3. Interest rate Decrease (Unlikely) Price break above 1.08000. Market will trade between 1.08000 - 1.10000.
Long
by Khairi_RL
1
XAUUSDKeep in mind this week we have exceptionally heavy fundamentals, on Wednesday. The FED announces its Interest Rate hikes. traders are waiting across the board for the number (if there's going to be one..) JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect 25 basis points. Please trade carefully. After the banking crisis (not over yet.) The FED has to intervene. In the past week, the FED has printed another $ 300 Billion in a second to support the failing banking industry. hence we are looking to short XAU, however, be mindful that this is a short-term setup and we expect XAU to offer an excellent buy opportunity. Let's see what markets and the FED has for us! _____________________________ We can try for a Sell entry at this area around the 50% fib however we do expect the Asian session to try to reach the higher fib areas before selling off.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by FastFx_Ltd
Gold Shines amid Global Financial DistressCOMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) Gold prices surged Friday as a wave of banking crises shook global financial markets. Spot gold climbed 3.1% to $1,977.89 per ounce, its highest level since April 2022. Gold price is now within $100 of its all-time high of $2,074.88. In the futures market, the nearby April contract of COMEX gold futures settled at $1,973.5, where the far-month June 2024 contract closed at $2,076.9. The year-long Fed rate hikes cracked the US banking system. Within two weeks, we have witnessed the collapses of Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank in California and Signature Bank in New York. First Republic Bank, a mid-sized bank in California, received $30 billion emergency injection from 11 largest American banks, led by JP Morgan. Interestingly, it was J.P. Morgan who organized a $30 million rescue plan to avert the collapse of Wall Street in 1907. That crisis led to the creation of Federal Reserve System. A century later, the cost of bank bailout increases by 1,000 folds. However, bank runs have already spread. Credit Suisse, a prestigious investment bank, is under distress. On Sunday evening, fellow Swiss bank UBS announced that it is acquiring Credit Suisse. Gold Price Rises in Times of Major Crises In the past two decades, gold price peaked in times of market turbulence. • The 2008 financial crisis • The 2010 European debt crisis • The 2018-19 US-China trade conflict • The outbreak of COVID pandemic • The Russia-Ukraine conflict • The March 2023 bank run Gold price is also negatively correlated with the US dollar. Last year, when Dollar rose on the back of Fed tightening, gold took a beating. Now, as investors expect the Fed to slow rate hikes, gold shines through the chaos. Investing in Gold: what in there for you? • Diversification: Gold helps reduce the overall risk of your portfolio by providing a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation • Tax efficiency: Long-term capital gains on gold investments are taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, which is lower than 37% for other long-term capital gains • Protection against rising prices: Gold has historically been a good hedge against inflation, and it can help protect your purchasing power • Liquidity: Gold ETFs and Gold Futures are highly liquid financial instruments. Many brokers also buy and sell gold bars and gold coins, with a commission. • Hedge against difficult economic conditions: Gold is a global store of value, and it can provide financial cover during geopolitical and economic uncertainty • Portfolio diversifier: Gold can act as a hedge against inflation and deflation alike, as well as a good portfolio diversifier In a previous writing, I showed that gold did not work well as a hedge against inflation. However, gold holds up extremely well during major crises where other assets lost value. Hedging against Known and Unknown Risks Risk on, gold goes up. Risk off, gold declines. Some risks are expected, while others come as a surprise. Fed rate actions are scheduled events and can be considered known or expected risk. CME FedWatch Tool shows the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings. It analyzes the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures pricing data. As of March 19th, FedWatch estimates a 38% chance of Fed keeping the current rate unchanged at 450-475 bp, and 62% odds of increasing 25 bp to 475-500 bp. By providing $300 billion in emergency lending to member banks, the Fed has effectively put Quantitative Easing at work. In my opinion, the Fed has switched its priority from fighting inflation to crisis management. Managing the systemic risk in the US banking system outweighs the battle against inflation at this time. It’s a matter of priority. What’s unknown is the potential failure of any bank not yet exposed in the news. US banks are estimated to sit on unrealized loss in hundreds of billions of dollars in their bond portfolio, largely consisted of Treasury and US agency bonds. As the “held-to-maturity” asset will be sold or marked down, these banks could run into trouble by a run of depositors and investors. In this unusual time, no news is good news. Short-term Trading Strategies The upcoming FOMC meeting on March 22nd make a compelling reason for event-driven trades on Micro Gold Futures. Here is my logic: • If the Fed keeps the rate unchanged, stock market would rally. As a major risk is removed from the financial system, gold price would fall • If the Fed raises 25 bps, stock market would fall, and gold price would rally, potentially breaking the current record high Micro Gold Futures (MGC) contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces. At $1,993.4, an April 2023 contract (MGCJ3) is valued at $19,934. Initiating a long or short position requires a margin of $800. This is approximately 4% of contract notional value. If gold price moves up to $2,050, a long futures position would gain $566. Relative to the initial margin, this would equate to a return of +70.8%, excluding commissions. If gold price moves down to $1,900, a short futures position would gain $934, a theoretical return of +116.8%. Unexpected market event could be a trigger for gold price to rally. An event-driven trade idea could be constructed around it. In my opinion, comparing to the distress of regional banks, the systematic risks triggered by a Big Bank failure could send global market in shock at ten times the magnitude. If the Fed raises rate next week, I expect more bank failures to coming in the next few months. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
THE MOST USEFUL TRADING SITES ...and how to utilize themIn this post, I will share the some of the most useful trading sites that are available to you and how you are able to utilize them to your advantage whether it's for fundamentals, charting, analysis, performance tracking, news events or just to follow your favorite professionals and their ideas & education that they share publicly. First and foremost, if you haven't made this your PRIMARY trading platform, I want to encourage you to use and SUBSCRIBE to TRADINGVIEW As we all evolve as traders, I'm sure we can all relate to one thing in common which is hard work and dedication. Trading is one of the hardest professions out there and without hard work, practice and dedication, we know that 90% of traders fail to make it in this industry. TRADINGVIEW gives you all the resources you need to be able to become one of the 10% as it enables you to become a content creator, it gives you a community to research ideas, you're able to watch livestreams, catch news flows, back test & analyze your own strategies and most importantly of all, you have direct support team to help guide you by sharing their own personal trading experiences, publicly as well as privately. Whether your choice of market is Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Bonds, Futures, Commodities or Yields, TRADINGVIEW has all the tools to be able get you well on your journey to become a professional trader. See Figure 1: Subscriptions WWW.MYFXBOOK.COM MYFXBOOK has a variety of different tools to use ranging anywhere from position size calculators, COT data (Commitment of traders), Broker spreads/quotes/volumes, news flows, correlations and most importantly, account linked performance analysis. You may be a full time trader or a part time trader with a 9-5 job, either way analyzing your entries, exits, RR ratio, drawdowns etc. are necessary to find what works and what doesn't. Trading is about probabilities and if you're not making money in 25 trades, you need to reanalyze and change your approach. Myfxbook.com allows you to link your trading platform to breakdown your performance, ultimately being your own coach to find the approach that suits you the best. See Figure 2: Performance Stats WWW.TRADINGECONOMICS.COM As many different crises happen throughout the world (especially the most recent ones within the last few years), understanding how the Federal Reserve operates to manage monetary policy is key to get an edge in your positions in the forex market. TRADINGECONOMICS gives you all the accurate information needed to be able to forecast and research throughout 196 countries like, economic indicators, exchange rates, stock market indexes, government bond yields and commodity prices. Micro and Macro economics are a big part of how this world operates and having access to all the most important information that drives the Feds decisions due to the economy being split between these two realms are valuable as they could be bridged together for more accurate forecasting. See Figure 3: Inflation Rates/GDP Growth (By Country) WWW.FOREXLIVE.COM FOREXLIVE has many different helpful resources to keep you up to date in the market no matter what time zone or trading session you take part in. As our lives are busy with family, day jobs, business endeavors or simply being in different time zones, you may not be able to watch all sessions play out and in fact, taking a break from the screen is healthy for your mind and emotions. The great thing about FOREXLIVE is that you are able to read Session Wraps to keep you up to date with a summary after each session (Asian, European, U.S) completes. Psychology is a big part of why a trader either succeeds or fails which balancing your time on and off the markets are important to detach your emotions from your positions. Set a plan for how many times you will scan the charts a day and fill that in between time with activities like exercising, reading, chores, spending time with your family, going for a walk and much more. See Figure 4: Session Wraps WWW.INVESTOPEDIA.COM INVESTOPEDIA was founded in 1999 headquartered in the heart of New York city U.S. This website provides comparisons of financial products, reviews, ratings, comparisons of different financial products and most importantly, it is a financial dictionary. With the broad range of information provided, it gives readers the confidence to manage every aspect of their financial life. Whether you're learning about money and investing for the first time or are looking to improve your knowledge and skills, anyone from an experienced investor, a business owner, a professional, an advisor, INVESTOPEDIA has all the information to build your skills. See Figure 5: 4 Basic Things to Know About Bonds/Key Takeaways WWW.INVESTING.COM INVESTING.COM is a well known site that offers real-time market quotes, information about stocks, futures, options, analysis, commodities and most importantly an economic calendar. Keeping an eye out for the high impact news events will help you adapt and control the volatility during those peak hours. Another helpful aspect of this site is knowing what will drive the market mood for each upcoming week. The top 5 most important fundamental areas to watch for are explained and broken down to help your forecast and analysis so you can prepare your trade setups accordingly. Applying fundamental analysis along with technical analysis will help you become a better trader as when the high impact news events hit, markets get volatile which could cause a running profit turn into an absolute loss. Knowing when to be in or out of the market is valuable so you don't go into a draw down phase. See Figure 6: Economic Calendar As I only have mentioned a small number of sites that you are able to access, we all know there are so many other ones available out there, paid and free. Researching and spending the time to read to broaden your knowledge in the financial world will only help you grow as a trader and essentially improve your trading results. Check out some more free sites: www.fxstreet.com www.dailyfx.com www.forexfactory.com www.babypips.com Please share the site that most helps you in by leaving it in the comment section. I would love to see the variety of ones available. ** If you felt this was helpful in anyway, please support by hitting the LIKE button and FOLLOW me for more educational and analysis ideas ** I appreciate all the feedback! Thanks Trade Safe
Education
by ktlfx
1
The SVB Collapse and Why It Matters To YouInteresting situation with the collapse of SVB (SIVB), the people have yet to realize we control the market not the central planners. and the collapse of SVB is a realization of that power. So , here is what i know from the very little articles and podcasts that I listen to and I will give you guys the why its important. From what i know is that SVB business model was somewhat risky in the first place, and their main consumer base was startups, and tech startups. hence the name Silicon Valley portion of Silicon Valley Bank. Now a little money education... in the world of money and currency (remember currency as current it will become important later) there is a concept called the velocity of money, basically the volatility of money. for my stock traders think the VIX. when the VIX is low there is no money to be made because money is not moving. but when the VIX is high there is plenty of money going around so why not use your dollars as napkins, right or "fun coupons"! this is the velocity of money the faster a person can make money move the more money they stand to make. the banks know this. So when you go to the bank and deposit your check your money is already out the door into something else before you're able to but your wallet in your bag or pocket. this happens because of what is called as the "fractional reserve system" and to be honest its a "F"ed up idea but has worked thus far. what this system means for every dollar you put into the bank, the bank can lend out 10$. A bank is a business it makes its profits by lending money, and when you save your money it cost the bank money, because of your .01% interest rate. the reason for the big push for open accounts is because the more open accounts the bank has means the more money they have liquid, which means the more they can loan out, which means the more they stand to profit. now as an insurance policy the US government makes the banks keep a fraction of their total account balances on site incase of what they call a "bank run" happens (get to what a bank run is later) Now, normally you dont notice this or even care because when you go to the bank and want to pull 100$ from your account its no big deal whats a 100$ when your dealing with 100s of thousands. you want a 100$ you get 100$ instantly. But want to see the system become a problem for you, if you have more than lets say 25,000$ or more in an account go try to pull ALL that money out and see what type of road blocks you encounter. they will make you give ID, reasons for shutting down the account, basically your first born child and your blood type. partly is because they really want to know why you're closing the account, because thats profits walking out the door. but the main reason is, they have to reach out to sister branches and other banks to pool that money together to be able to give it to you and this typically happens like over night. so if you think you're about to waltz into your local bank and demand a 25,000$ check right then and there you're sadly mistaken. the same exact process happens when you take out a mortgage, now your talking $200K and up so now there are more road blocks. whether you're the buyer or the seller. you sell your house for 500K and you think that check you deposited is there right when you get it... yeah its not! back to the currency comment money is now a currency it has to keep moving to keep its value. think of it as a river, mostly you can drink water from a river and be okay because bacteria cannot grow in moving water but drink water out of a pond and you just might catch Syphilis (sarcasm intended). money is the same way, the faster you can make it move the more you stand to make and the healthier the money is, if take money out of the river and stick it in your pond as a savings account inflation will eat it alive making it very unhealthy. Even historically before all this crazy inflation started happening the savings rate in a savings account was like 0.01% and inflation was around 2 percent. Now the importance of this lays with the SVB. When looking at their business model it seems solid... "invest in high beta companies, or higher risk endeavors, then to off set this risk we will load up on the safest paper assets money can buy... the US 10Y bond." Officially the US hasn't defaulted on loans before... i mean we will print more money before we default. I mean it sounds like counterfeiting if you ask me, but who am I just a low key, low level, low volume trader with a computer living in my moms basement :) sarcasm... or is it?! Well from the looks of it it would seem SVB bought a ton of these 10Y bonds in 2021 when the economy was ripping and roaring. So, when bond yields are down their prices are way up. So in the full swing of the "roaring 20's" yields were around 1.12X or keeping it simpler 1.1XX. so that must mean the value must of been sky high. My only rational thought for this type of purchase was the risk manager must of thought he could off load the bonds in the bond market for a nice profit thinking good times were going to continue. On the surface it seems okay high risk business model with a low risk counter weight. But "We the People" were leaving SVB, and going back to what i said about taking your 25,000$ savings out, and they were running out of reserves and their bonds were worth less than the paper they were "printed" on, so they filed a loss on their report. on the surface this was fine, because only die hards read a companies 10Q or 8A but all it takes is one... and there is always that one Guy... and not this Regular Guy either. I personally dont like the instability of the tech industry. i mean i do believe we will make a full blown terminator but i dont want to gamble on which company that is regardless of what the gain is... might as well go gamble in my opinion. So, because there was a mass exodus of accounts they were having a hard time fill orders so file your 8A detailing you're offering more stocks to drum up some money and it falls flat. people read said 8A and see that you dont have cash so the word got out and the consumers made a bank run. Dont get it twisted either this can happen to any commercial bank JP Morgan, BofA, Chase, Citi, Credit Suisse and the like. a bank run is when the majority of depositors want their money back now and they do it in close succession of each other forcing the bank to say "we dont have your money" so they in essence "run" to the "bank" to get their worthless paper. Now, what i just learned is back in '08 our amazing government passed legislation basically stating they will no longer bail out banks. (honestly if you guys know the piece of legislation please post it in the comments) I agree with this legislation because when I lost 15k on a bad USDCHF trade 7-8 years ago the government didnt bail me out. that was all my money... just gone in a matter of seconds. So the US government came out and said " we will make sure all depositors will get their monies back... How? step in Bail-Ins And again a bail in is something i literally just learned about... i swear at this point were just making -ish up at this point... ok so we know what a bail out is... basically the US government funnels all this cash into a failing business(s) and the tax payer picks up the tab. so what is a bail-in?... glad you asked a bail-in is when the depositors pick up the tab... How? well the FDIC picks up the first $250K and anything over that 250K is now funneled into bank to help offset the loss. so if you have $500K in the bank the first $250K is yours... uncle sam gives it back via FDIC (which that money has been long gone spent, so i dont know where theyre going to pull money from to keep this facade of the FDIC up) and the next $250K is the banks... So congratulations you have just become a unwillingly silent partner of a failing bank. -ishy news is that the current administration is trying to give more power back to the IRS and bring it back to its glory days like it was in the 80's so you wont be able to claim those losses on your taxes, if you had a business friendly administration you might actually have a fighting chance. i have a feeling the whole world is watching what is about to happen, because the entire banking system relies on high value accounts. if the US says tough luck that might send uneasy shock waves to all the high income earners and might make them want to pull their funds out of the banking system... there is a very interesting article on Credit Suisse that i want to read so ciao!
TVC:US10Y
by ARegularGuy
1