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BITCOIN "make or break" According to Elliott Wave analysis, Bitcoin's fifth wave appears to have completed at a high of $25,250 and the price has fallen from that level. The key support level of $21,510 has been broken, as well as the Fibonacci level of 0.5 at $20,363. It's important to wait for a daily close to confirm whether the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $19,209 can hold as major sell-offs may occur if it fails. The potential levels to watch for are $17,567, $15,476, and $12,817. The golden ratio of 0.618 also supports the $19,209 level as a critical support. It's worth noting that this Bitcoin collapse is driven by the actions of central banks of all countries, and if Bitcoin can survive the Fed rate hike, we may see a new all-time high. However, this remains to be seen and will depend on a range of economic and geopolitical factors. In summary, Bitcoin is currently experiencing a significant correction and it's important to keep an eye on the key support levels mentioned above to gauge its future direction.
Short
by arpitjain11
1
DXY Outlook 9th March 2023On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve was ready to speed up interest rate increases, if warranted by incoming data. This was a reversal to what the market had expected, with most speculations regarding a possible pivot on the current monetary policy to slow down on future rate hikes. This headline news saw the DXY strengthen significantly from the 104.60 price area, breaking beyond 105, to reach a near-term high of 105.88. While Chair Powell's overnight testimony saw the DXY retrace briefly to retest the 105.36 support level, this move was unsustained and the price rebounded from the support. Currently trading at the 105.65 price level, and with no major news for the US today, the DXY will likely consolidate along this range for the short term, between the 105.36 and 105.88 price levels.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Inflation (CPI) - A Battle Already LostInflation ( CPI ) - A Battle Already Lost I've recently shared my outlook on CPI and where I think its headed in the months ahead but after further review, it seems that I've previously overlooked certain signals which should have altered my perspective in a way that it did not. Based on discovery of those signals, I have now updated my anticipatory CPI chart to highlight certain levels of interest. As we can see on the wavemap, the Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) has broken above its 40+ year bearish trend line. The breakout was very strong and should be considered as very significant. The format of the wave during this breakout has developed as what seems to likely be a zig-zag formation. Noticeably, the upside zig-zag wave has retraced 90% of the 40 year long bearish drawdown. Therefore, leaving little probability of it being a truly corrective wave. Aside from the macro bear trend-line, I have also highlighted the newly respected bullish trend-line. Finding resistance near 6.77, Fibonacci measurements suggest that the pending action will fall to retest the former price containing trend line and maybe even drop below it. Specifically, Elliott Wave Theory suggests that 0.99-1.01 should be the downside target range. Over the past 20 years, this level has also supplied nearly unbeatable support. If support is once again discovered near 1.00, the currently active wave could then be sent to retest the red bullish trend, at a level near 9-10. Ultimately, completion of the blue diagonal will signify that the CPI (and inflation) area headed for upside levels that the American economy has never witnessed. Personally, I believe that inflation is a byproduct of capitalism and there is no true containment possible. The next decade will prove to show if this is on point or simply farce.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by DigitalSurfTrading
US30 Intra-Week Analysis March 8th 2023Last week, the US30 index tested a key level of 32500, and despite bullish efforts to maintain strength, we were unable to break below it. Instead, we saw a slight relief rally to end the week at the 33400 level. As we entered the new week, our main bias was bearish, but we had to remain adaptive due to the upcoming FED speech and jobs data. Powell's hawkish speech indicated further tightening of financial conditions and efforts to fight inflation, causing US30 to flip bearish and drop back into the range just above 32500. If Dollar Domination continues, it's likely we'll see price consolidation as we pick up new orders, and we may potentially begin trading below 32500. Alternatively, we could see a potential liquidity grab to the upside if buyers attempt to squeeze in more profits before the market shifts.
U
by Itskaleel
1
Bitcoin weekly pattern repeats ?As you can see in the chart, it would seem that history is repeating itself a little on the PA There have been many that look at the PA from 2013 and draw similarities but I've not seen this and so I will post it again It Must be noted that there is a tolerance of 7 days to these numbers as a weekly chart has 7 days, but its near enough as you can see Using the 50 EMA ( Red ) From the ATH in Dec 2013, PA remained above the 50 for 266 days till it dropped below - 84 days later, it came back up and touched, pushed through briefly before going back down for another 427 days before it came up, broke through and continued above the 50 for another 784 days to the new ATH PA has repeated this almost ecactly since the High around April 2021 and we are right on the point where PA, if it wasn't being hit by fundamentals / FED . Fear etc, would be about to push through the 50, as can be seen on chart. If PA manages to break through now and continues along this "pattern" it would reach an expected New ATH around April 2025, which amazingly has confluence with some other charts and ideas. For this to work, Obviously, the fundamentals have to work in Bitcoins favour and one of those may well be the continuing fight with inflation in the USA It has to be said, there is NEVER any certainty with Fractals and Time pattern repeats but there does seem to be a strong similarity, and I find that Fascinating. I hope you do too
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
EURUSD - It's at a very important area!EURUSD - It's at a very important area! EUR - We are currently at a very important support area of the range. What's happening to the market fundamentally? Yesterday we had a very Hawkish Powell, as I mentioned in my previous post we had the indication of 25 basis point but I did mention we could perhaps change to 50 well.. embedded that in and we had a hawkish upward revision upward revision to the 2024 Dot Plots and Fed Swaps Now Favours 50bp Hike In March Repricing Higher From 25bp as mentioned by Powell is not out of picture and being priced in. Now that's a very important information... We had 2 yrs escalate to 5%. The 2% target of inflation will be achievable and it is a global target. Even though we have a hawkish ECB, pricing in further hike. The dollar is having much more of a major movement overall. We had Gold hit 1800 areas again re-test of the lows, yields head higher, Yen 137 area and euro at the most important EUR 1.05 areas a break of this level, 1.04 can easily be achieved. However, if we break above the highs, I expect us to go towards 1.09 areas... Currently, we are within the ranges of highs: 1.07480 & lows: 1.04900. Don't forget we have a busy docket today: ADP, Fed Chair Powell Testifies, JOLTs...and end of this week NFP! Have a great day ahead, Trade Journal Key tip: Don't forget Risk Management!
by Trade_Journal
Btc Analysis and Trade Idea💸 #BTC (Bitcoin)💸 📊 3H-30MIN Follow The Trend and waite for long confirmation in Bullish Order Blocks 🟢Minor Bullish Order Block:21500$ 🟢Major Bullish Order Block:21350$ 🟢Major Bullish Order Block:21000$ 🔴Minor Bearish Order Block:22700$ 🔴Major Bearish Order Block: 23600$ ⚠️Daily Volume profile 18885$ ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 📊Powered by Smart Money Concept+Volume profile 🆚Risk/Reward Ratio:10 ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖ 👤 Analysis by Trader_Needs 📅 03.08.2023 📫Get Free Access to Premium «Analysis + Trading Signals. »
Long
by Trader_Needs
1
USOIL chart & US inflation Ticker belowHere is the cause of inflation - OIL As its price rises, initially, nothing changes ( Arrows) But once the increase in cost is begun to be felt Retails prices rise to cover increase costs of manufacture, transport, staff Staff demand more wages so they can buy goods Repeat Then The FED comes in , raises the cost of Borrowing, putting pressure on retail to LOWER prices so that the Pubic can buy goods Note how the price of oil drops PRIOR to the effects of raises in interest rates HERE is your Problem Also, take note of the contract that the Petro$ had and that has now been Stopped by OPEC countries. The OIL charts over the next few years are going to show some interesting patterns I thinnk
TVC:USOIL
by Orriginal
1
Gold Pressured by Powell's Testimony, Approaches $1,800 Support Gold prices came under pressure on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened across the board following the Federal Reserve Chair's semi-annual testimony before the Senate. At the time of writing, the spot price XAU/USD is trading at $1,818 an ounce, 1.55% lower on the day, having hit a one-week low of $1,815. The U.S. dollar rallied on the back of hawkish remarks from Fed's Chair Jerome Powell. In a hearing before the Senate, he signaled his willingness to raise rates at a faster pace. He noted that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated, given that the latest economic data have come in stronger than expected. The next round of data, including February nonfarm payrolls and inflation numbers, will likely determine whether the Federal Reserve will opt for a 25 or a 50 bps rate hike at the March 21, 22 FOMC meeting. After the testimony, Wall Street indexes plunged while short-term Treasury yields jumped, with the 2-year note rate reaching its highest level in 15 years at 4.979%. Higher yields further boosted the dollar, weighing on XAU/USD. From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD short-term bias has turned bearish according to indicators on the daily chart, which have accelerated south, while the price broke below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and approaches the $1,800 psychological level, critical short-term support point. A break below the latter could open the door to a deeper decline targeting the 200-day SMA at around $1,775. On the other hand, the immediate resistance area is seen at the $1,845-50 region, followed by the weekly highs at the $1,860 zone.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
DXY 4 hour - while we wait on PowellDXY 4 hour PA coming into an area where it is getting squeezed, Currently may reach 104.7 before it faces rejection or needs to push through long term resistance today / Tomorrow Mr Powell ( Fed, DXY support agency) will talk and either upset or support markets with news of the FED opinion on rate rises. Expectation is that 25 points is incoming but some talk of 50, depending on Figures ........ coughs........ This is what Crypto is waiting on PA above 50, 100 & 200 EMA but lower time frames show that PA is approaching overbought, RSI on daily is above neutral Over all, DXY PA is due to retrace once again soon. just do not know when exactly but Strong Fundimentals could postpone that
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
1
Gold as an Inflation Hedge? Myth Busted!COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) and Gold Options ( COMEX:GC1! ) Gold is often hailed as an effective hedge against inflation. It generally increases in value as the purchasing power of the US dollar declines over time. Does this still remain true? Since January 2013, the US Consumer Price Index increased 29.4% cumulatively, while the 10-year total return of Gold is only 11.3%. Let’s demystify the gold myth. In fact, gold is by no means among the best-performing investment assets in the past decade! Let’s look at where investing $10,000 in different assets would take you in the past ten years: • If you held $10,000 in cash, you still have $10,000, a 0% nominal return; • If you bought a gold ETF fund, you would have $11,300, assuming it tracks gold price perfectly. However, after subtracting an average 0.5% a year in fund expense, you would end up with only $10,800, an annual return of merely 0.78%; • 5-year bank certificate of deposit (CD) yielded 1.0%/APR in 2013 and 1.5% in 2018. If you put the money in CDs back-to-back, you would have $11,322 now; • If you invest in a market index stock portfolio, the S&P 500 gained 159% in the past ten years. You would end up with $25,900; • If you bought bitcoin at $4.43 each in January 2013, you would have amassed nearly $1.6 million from the original $10K, an astonishing 15943% return! Actual data shows that holding gold, a non-yielding asset, underperformed other investable assets in the past decade. Gold price endured a double-digit decline, from $1,600 per troy ounce, to as low as $1,000, during the low-inflation period of 2013-2018. It shot up in 2019 as the US-China trade conflict intensified. The outbreak of Covid pandemic pushed gold to a record high of $2,075 in August 2020. As US economy remerged from Covid in 2021, gold price fell back to $1,700. Then, the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed it back up above $1,900. However, when the Federal Reserve embarked on the path of rate increases, gold price fell sharply to $1,600. This was a period where US CPI raged between 7-9%, and gold completely failed as a defense against inflation. US Dollar Is the Primary Price Driver Gold prices rose on Friday as a rally in the dollar and bond yields paused. COMEX Gold Futures (GC) for April delivery closed up $14.10 to $1,854.60 per ounce. The rise comes on expectations that higher interest rates are on the way as reports show that US economy is still running too hot to quell high inflation. Dollar index was down 0.35 points to 104.68, while the US 10-year note was paying 3.977%, down 8.4 basis points. US dollar continues to call the shot for gold as investors assess the Fed's rate path. The above chart shows a perfect negative correlation between gold price and dollar index. When dollar rises, gold falls; and when dollar declines, gold advances. Last month, the dollar's bounce had weighed heavily on gold. The dollar rallied as a run of hot U.S. labor and inflation data saw traders’ expectations for more aggressive Fed rate increases. A stronger dollar can be a drag on commodities priced in dollar, making them more expensive to users of other currencies. In recent weeks, gold may have found some support on fears that an aggressive Fed could push the U.S. economy into recession, but a continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, along with a relatively resilient dollar means limited upside . Rising Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, like gold. Short-term Trading Strategies At $1,850, gold is neither too expensive nor too cheap by historical standard. As such, I am not in favor of an outright directional trade, one way or the other. However, the market’s razor-thin focus on Fed rate actions will make a compelling reason for event-driven trades on Gold Futures and Gold Options. March is a very active month for macro-economic data releases: • March 8th, Fed Chair Powell will testify on the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee; • March 10th, Bureau of Labor Statistics will release February employment report; • March 14th, BLS will release the February CPI report; • March 22nd, Fed will announce its interest rate decision. Financial market tends to be sensitive to these data releases, as the latter could deliver huge shocks if actual data goes beyond market expectations. If you expect an upcoming data release to be bullish on gold, you could express this view with a long futures position on COMEX Micro Gold Futures (MGC). Each MGC contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces. At $1,880, a June 2023 contract (MGCM3) is valued at $18,800. Initiating a long or short position requires a margin of $740. This is approximately 4% of contract notional value. In comparison, buying physical gold (i.e., gold bar or gold coin) and gold ETF fund requires 100% upfront investment. If gold price moves up to $1,950, the futures account would gain $700. Relative to the initial margin, this would equate to a return of +94.6%, excluding commissions. Alternatively, the same bullish view could be expressed by a call option of COMEX Gold Futures. Each COMEX Gold Future contract has a notional value of 100 troy ounces. At $1,880, a June futures contract (GCM3) is valued at $188,000. A call option on the 1,900 strike is quoted 37.0 on 3 March 2023. Acquiring 1 option requires an upfront premium of $3,700 (100 ounces per contract). If gold moves up to $1,950, the options account would be credited by $5,000 (=(1950-1900) x100), which represents a theoretical return of +35.1% from the original investment of $3,700. If you are bearish on gold, a short MGC futures or a put option on GC would be appropriate. Futures and options account would gain in value if the price of gold falls. Similar to investing in physical gold or gold ETFs, the biggest investment risk is betting the wrong direction. However, futures have a built-in leverage. In the case of MGC, each $1 movement in gold price translate into $10 variance in futures account balance. Options have a non-linear payout diagram. As the contract moves deeper in-the-money, options value grows exponentially. Long-term Trading Ideas After the active central bank action period is over, will gold price trend up or down? What would be the primary driver of gold price? Inflation, US dollar, interest rate, economic growth, or geopolitical crisis? All are possible, maybe a little bit of each. My research reveals that gold price has a relatively stable relationship with WTI crude oil (CL). Over the past ten years, each 1,000 barrels of WTI (1 CL) sell at a price between 150 and 300 ounces of gold for about 80% of the time. We could visualize an oil producer wanting to be paid by gold. When dollar fluctuates, he would adjust the dollar selling price to keep his gold acquisition stable. Therefore, whenever the price range is breached, gold price has a strong tendency of falling back in. In the next writing, I would explore a convergence/divergence idea between GC and CL. Stay tuned! Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
2
Forex Alert: Fed Officials' Six-Hour Speech Marathon Forex Alert: Fed Officials' Six-Hour Speech Marathon Will the numerous appearances of US Federal Reserve officials rock the market during the closing hours of this trading week? Over the course of six hours leading up to the market's closing this week, we will hear from Lorie K. Logan (Dallas Fed), Raphael Bostic (Atlanta), Michelle W. Bowman (Board of Governors)), and Tom Barkin (Richmond), in that order, until the forex market closes. With so many consecutive appearances, traders may experience information overload, potentially leading them to avoid the market. Alternatively, they may jump into the market during this typically low-volume session to position themselves for Monday morning trading. The hope in the latter scenario is that they will put themselves ahead of other market participants who need time to digest all the comments from the Fed officials over the weekend. On Wednesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressed concerns over inflation and job data received in February following the Reserve's 25-basis rate hike. Kashkari noted that he was “open-minded” about a 25 or 50 basis point rate hike for the next one. The sentiment of other Fed officials regarding this matter should help in setting trade positions this Friday and the following week. EUR/USD and GBP/USD traders may also be interested to know that officials from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will also be speaking this week. ECB’s Isabel Schnabel will be speaking on Thursday (EST) at the time of the release of the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, followed by the BoE’s Huw Pill a few hours later. Christopher Waller from the US Fed will also be speaking on Thursday at 4:00 pm (EST), after Pill.
by BlackBull_Markets
Looking ahead into March 2023 (DXY)In February, we saw the US Dollar Index (DXY) reject the 100.85 price area to climb strongly to the upside due to several key events 1) Federal Reserve hiked rates to 4.75%. Although the initial reaction was a big drop to test the low of 100.85, the comments accompanying the rate decision indicated that further rate increases could be expected as inflation has eased but remains elevated. 2) Surprising Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) A massive surprise to the market with a print of 517K (Forecast: 193K) this signaled that the US economy was still performing strongly, despite the ongoing interest rate increases. The DXY shot up to test the 103.75 price level over the next couple of days following the NFP release. 3) Elevated Consumer Price Index (CPI) Markets were widely anticipating that US inflation growth should have slowed down from 6.5% to 6.2%. However, the CPI data was released at 6.4%, which indicated a slight slowdown (just not as much as anticipated). This played to the previous narrative from the FOMC that while inflation was easing, it was still elevated. With an increased likelihood that the FOMC would continue with its interest rate hikes, the DXY climbed steadily to the upside, breaking the 103.75 level to climb steadily up to the 105.50 resistance level. Now as we head into March and the DXY is retracing from the 105.50 price level, where could prices head to? In the lead up to the major news events, the DXY could continue to retrace lower to retest the 104 price level and support area. 1) Will we see a repeat surprise on the NFP? It is probably unlikely that we'll get a massive surprise again for the NFP this month. However, any positive data release could see the DXY renew its climb to the upside. 2) Focus is on the CPI As indicated above, February's CPI was released at 6.4% which was higher than expected. A similar release this month would pretty much cement the Federal Reserve's decision regarding a rate hike, bringing further upside to the DXY. 3) Federal Funds Rate In the recently released meeting minutes, it was highlighted that while all members supported a 25bps rate hike, some would have supported a decision to raise rates by 50bps. This shows a level of hawkishness within the FOMC, which could be crucial in the decision this month. Employment and CPI data would be the deciding factor between a 25 or 50bps rate hike. However, remember that the terminal rate is 5.25% and with rates at 4.75%, we are very close!! We'll have to pay attention to comments regarding a shift in the terminal rates and increased speculation about a pivot to come from the FOMC. Based on the points discussed above, I am anticipating overall further upside for the DXY, but Price could first retest the 103.75 to 104 support area. If the support level holds, this could be a good base for price to rebound and trade back toward the 105.50 resistance area. Beyond that, the next resistance level is at 107. Alternatively, if the price breaks strongly below 104, then the next support level at 102.60 would come into play.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
6
However you slice it, real estate doesn’t look good.While it might not be the subprime/GFC “SELL” kind of situation, the real estate sector is undoubtedly facing headwinds. With the most recent Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) printing higher than consensus, maybe it’s about time we take the Fed’s hawkish commentary more seriously. To review, let us look at interest rate expectations from a month ago vs today. Market expectations are now pricing in three 25bps hikes instead of one, and more importantly no more rate cuts in the second half of 2023. This rise in rates expectation has notably resulted in sideways action for equities, while the dollar strengthens. What a difference a month makes! Mostly importantly, it’s not hard to see how higher rates will translate into higher mortgage rates. This is bad news for home buyers as borrowing becomes more and more unaffordable. In fact, higher mortgage rates have continued to weigh on the minds of Fed officials as underscored by the following statements in the latest Fed minutes, including “Participants agreed that activity in the housing market had continued to weaken, largely reflecting the increase in mortgage rates over the past year.” and “Participants agreed that cumulative policy firming to date had reduced demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing.” Existing home sales are now at a 12-year low, surpassing the 2020 lows. Only 2 other periods post-GFC, saw a lower print, and it’s worth noting that mortgage rates during those periods were at the same level or lower. Home prices have also started to turn over, ending a 12-year run higher. Lower prices could indicate tepid demand in the housing market, which we will watch closely over the next few prints. And forward-looking indicators all seem to point towards contraction. With US Building permits and NAHB Housing Market Index slightly off the covid low, while the MBA Purchase Index close to the 7-year low. It does seem like however, we slice it, real estate looks pretty ugly now. One way to express the bearish view on real estate could be to use the CME E-Mini Real Estate Select Sector Futures which tracks the S&P Real Estate Select Sector Index. Looking at the sector futures alongside the 30-year Mortgage rates shows us the effect of the rising rates on the real estate sector. On the technical front, we see the sector future breaking the short-term support established since October 2022, while the longer-term trend seems to point downwards. Given our view that rates have further to go, negative home prices and sentiment measures across the board, and a technical break lower, we see the potential for the sector future to trade lower. We set our stops at 196, a previous resistance level, and the take-profit level at 163, with each 0.05 increment in the index equal to 12.5 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.federalreserve.gov
CME_MINI:XAR1!Short
by inspirante
EURUSD bagged and taggedAs mentioned before, so long as DXY has not reach the finishing line, which is the higher time frame upside objective, Risk Off will still be in play. Same narrative, different pair. What happens when DXY finally gets to the upside objective? We sit sideline and study what it wants to do next. There are only 3 possible direction of the market, Bullish / Bearish / Consolidation. Usually, in my opinion, after a prolonged rally / decline, price will tend to consolidate for a bit. After consolidation comes expansion. The question is, expansion to the upside or downside? Now, this short-term bullishness of USD as I previously stated, could be Bear Market Rally for USD. Mr Powell will likely hike rates again in the next Federal Fund Rate announcement. In theory, higher interest rate means bullish for currency. But look at US domestic debt condition. Will that spook investors? Housing and Banking looks about to get crushed. US Credit Card debt climbs nearly US$1 Trillion *source: Insider Intelligent* Household debt hits record US$16.9 Trillion *source: CNN Business* Housing Market Downturn Wipes $2.3 Trillion In Value As Experts Predict Prices Could Still Tumble Another 10% *source: Forbes* US Home-Purchase Applications Drop to 28-Year Low *source: Bloomberg*
by XeroAcademy
My Thoughts on the EUR/USDHere are some of the notes I had put down since 2020. I am wondering how long the EUR/USD can hold above the 1.05 lvl . The Federal Reserve is on a path to keep hiking, in hopes of combating inflation and winning on that front. The ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place as inflation is still extremely high and the economy is barely above water. I think price is going to at least hit 1.05. I am a little skeptical about price hitting the parity level again, at least in the first two quarters, but in the future I think the EUR/USD will like break below the parity level again. Jan 10, 2020 -Focus EUR, GBP, NZD, CHF, ECAD, ZAR, maybe CAD -EUR Likely to push higher during first month or two because price will likely move with GBP, USD experiencing with Manufacturing, US/China Phase One Deal take a few months to show signs of improvement -I will focus on when the EUR drops -thinking price will push to 1.13, then turn around, especially if there is a war with Iran/Iran conducting terrorist activities -if price pushes to the 1.14, my focus with this pair will dissipate and I won't be trading this pair -If price pushes above 1.15, holds for a few days, and doesn't push back below 1.1450 and stay there, then the trend is broken on the down side, price will likely push higher, to around 1.18/1.20 by end of year, if this happened before or during June May 21, 2020 -thinking EUR will push lower -monthly chart pattern showing price may push higher pretty significantly, but fundamentals/market sentiment posting says otherwise -doubt that the ECB will want EUR to appreciate -to push higher, virus would need to subside greatly or a great deal of confidence in a cure/vaccine -EU countries would need to recover Jan 10, 2021 -PT EUR 1.40, CAD 1.20/1.15, GBP 1.50, JPY (want to stay in for as long as I can, price likely to drop to 102), AUD 0.80/then to 0.70, NZD 0.75 then to 0.60, CHF 0.80, ECAD 1.45, ZAR 9.20 -Some prices likely to take more then a year to him my targets. Prices that might hit this year are CAD, AUD, NZD. CHF may hit 0.80 this year, JPY 102 may be broken -No current strong plan Mar 14. 2021 -target 1.40 -monthly chart showing double bottom almost complete, within a monthly inverse H/S -Will price pull below 1.16, I don't see it as stimulus might be the new norm this year -If inflation starts raising considerably/US economy recovers quick, then price will likely push lower, past 1.16 to 1.15 -I think though price will push higher this year, maybe hitting 1.30 Jun 06, 2021 -US economy is open up slowly -ECB is still holding onto the PEPP and has not distributed yet -ECB still looking to be dovish -Price likely to range and whipsaw -FED and ECB not diverging like in 2014 Jun 28, 2021 -price is trading near 1.19 and may break lower because of divergence between FED/ECB -price target 1.15 Oct 13, 2021 -I think price is going to push lower because of the FED and ECB divergence -price having trouble pushing above the 1.20 lvl -the 1.05 or at least the 1.08 might be hit faster than I think -shorts are becoming stronger and stronger -price might drop to 1.08 by Feb 2022 -I doubt 1.20 will be hit because if price breaks below the 1.15 and hits 1.13, the 1.15 will be hard to break -if price is able to stay below 1.15 before Nov, price will likely hit 1.10 Dec 31, 2021 -Said I would only focus on: CAD, JPY (PT 120), ECAD (below 1.40), ZAR, GCHF -No current strong plan Feb 12, 2022 -I am going to stay out of no matter how price is moving -Reason, ECB hinting at being hawkish -only use as a hedge May 07, 2022 -price having trouble pushing lower -I think price may hit parity as sentiment surrounding USD extremely strong, ECB having hard time balancing Russia/Ukraine conflict with its economy and inflation -hints of ECB raising rates in 3rd/4th QTR this is what is going to start price recovering -price may be able to hit 1.10/1.15 if the ECB becomes very hawkish -staying out of the pair for the year Jun 10, 2022 -EUR is a risk currency and could push lower if recession worries increase -majority of central banks raising rates quickly, slow down inevitable -not concerned with this pair and going to stay out for now Aug 07, 2022 -stuck between raising rates and fighting off a recession -in short term I think price will push higher, but won't last for long -if interest rates increase, borrowing costs will increase, ECB has tool to fight this, but will still cause inflation Oct 16, 2022 -I think EUR is going to push lower, but in the short term higher -price on monthly chart is bouncing/testing support of monthly descending wedge, coupled with ECB likely to raise rates, might push the EUR higher -other hand, price could break lower as EZ heads into winter, Russia cutting Oil taps, causing supply crunches Nov 20, 2022 -I think the EUR and GCAD are going to push lower Dec 07, 2022 -working on getting into building my portfolio -looking at building in the EUR, GCHF, GCAD -EUR might push near the 1.10 -EUR going to experience some pain similar to UK, -manufacturing/industrials showing some growth -build into GCAD first then EUR, then Silver Dec 11, 2022 -descending wedge holding -if continues to push higher, might be able to hit 1.10, possibly around 1.12/1.14 (testing resistance of descending wedge) -price also forming an inverse H/S, if correct, price may B/O and push to the 1.22 before breaking lower -EZ close to being in a recession or in a recession already -double digit inflation, could cause ECB to raise rates quickly -ECB looking to possibly stop or reduce asset purchases which could push price higher -wages also increasing along with housing prices -Manufacturing/Industrial growth low -I think EUR will push up initially because ECB will have to raise rates quickly, and FED and ECB might eventually diverge
Short
by DollarSaenz
1
No Landing in the Twilight ZoneCBOT: Micro Treasury Yields ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! , CBOT_MINI:5YY1! , CBOT_MINI:10Y1! , CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) Is the US economy heading towards a “no landing”, as opposed to a “hard landing” or a “soft landing"? There is a heated debate among economists and market strategists. What is a "no landing"? It is a new term drawn up by Wall Street, which describes the economy continuing to grow while the Fed raises interest rates to fight inflation. Stock investors have a hard time making sense of the latest data from inflation, employment, and corporate earnings. The Fed’s future policy actions are unclear. As a result, the US stock market moved sideways in recent weeks. Treasury Market in Disarray With a widening negative yield curve, bond investors are convinced that a US economic recession is on the horizon. Let’s refresh our knowledge on this subject. Yield curve shows interest rates on Treasury bonds with short-term, intermediate, and long-term maturities, notably 3-month T-Bill, 2-year and 10-year T-Notes, 15-year and 30-year T-Bonds. Bond investors expect to be paid more for locking up their money for a long stretch, so interest rates on long-term debt are usually higher than those on short-term. Plotted out on a chart, the various yields for bonds create an upward sloping line. Sometimes short-term rates rise above long-term ones. That downward sloping line is called yield curve inversion or negative yield curve. An inversion has preceded every U.S. recession for the past 50 years. It’s considered a leading indicator of economic downturn. On July 21st 2022, the 2-year yield stood at 3.00%, above the 2.91% 10-year yield. Since then, we have been in negative yield curve environment for seven months. The 10Y-2Y yield spread has widened to -76.9 bps, but a recession has not yet occurred. Below are current yields indicated by CBOT Treasury futures as of February 17th: • 30-day Fed Funds: 4.665% • 2-year Treasury: 4.618% • 5-year Treasury: 4.014% • 10-year Treasury: 3.848% • 30-year Treasury: 3.883% We observe that the longer the duration, the lower the yield. The 5Y, 10Y and 30Y yields all price below current Fed Funds rate target of 4.50-4.75%. The US economy seems surprisingly strong, despite the Fed trying to cool it with eight consecutive rate hikes. However, negative yield curve contradicts the notion of “No Landing”. Trading Opportunities in Micro Yield Futures Investors currently expect the Fed to raise interest rates in March and June meetings, with the terminal rate consensus at 5.3% at the end of this tightening cycle. Clearly, Treasury futures market has not priced in the pending rate hikes. The most underpriced interest rate is the 10-year yield. At 3.85%, it is 90 bps below current Fed Funds target and 1.45% below expected terminal rate. On February 17th, the February and March 2023 contracts of CBOT 10-Year Micro Yield Futures (10Y) were quoted almost the same rate, at 3.850% and 3.853%, respectively. Investors apparently brushed off the upcoming rate increase in March. My trading rationale: US businesses continue to expand, which provides solid support for the long-term debt market. With short-term yield rising fast, borrowers would flock to lower rate debt, pushing up demand for the longer-term credit. In my opinion, a 10-year yield below 4% is not sustainable. For confirmation, let’s take a look at various market interest rates for 10-year duration: • US Corporate AAA Effective Yield: 4.61% • US Corporate BBB Effective Yield: 5.64% • US Mortgage Rate, 10-year fixed: 6.24% • Bank Certificate of Deposit, 10-year: 4.10% (Discover Bank) Monthly contracts for the 10Y are listed for 2 consecutive months. Contract notional value is 1,000 index points. A minimum tick of 0.001 (1/10 of 1 bps) is worth $1. This means that a 25-bps increase will translate into $250 per contract. It would be a 77% gain in contract value if we use the $325 initial margin as a cost base. April contract starts trading on March 1st. If it is quoted similar to the March contract, there is potential to gain. Whether we compare with market rates of debt instruments of the same 10-year duration, or with risk-free Treasury rates of different durations, a 10-year yield pricing below 4% is a bargain. Besides, the FOMC meeting on March 21st-22nd would likely give the contract a big boost, as long as the Fed raises rates. In summary, I would consider a long position for April 10Y contract at or below 4% yield. What about the idea of yield curve reversal and the narrowing of 10Y-2Y spread? It may still happen, but its timing is unclear at this point. Micro Yield futures are designed for shorter-term trading with contracts listing for only two calendar months. This is different from CBOT 2-year (ZT) and 10-year (ZN) futures which are listed for 3 consecutive quarters, currently through September. The traditional Treasury futures contracts would be better instruments for a yield spread strategy. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
6
DXY Daily - under pressure ?So, DXY continues its position under the 768 fib line AND the 200 and 100 EMA - PA managed to get above the 50 but will that last Somrthing to possibly note is that, as I have shown previously, DXY does not like Fib circles and 99% of the time, it will be rejected by them, as you can see on 3 previous occasions on this chart alone. And PA is approaching another around the beginning of April, which leave March for DXY to build up some strength to try and break through - But it has resistance just above. But, again, as mentioned previously, the FED ( the DXY Support group) has mentioned that it will continue to raise interest rates, the earns the banks Money and so the $ becomes more valuable...usually. DXY is worth watching close, it has retraced back tot he 0.5 fib retrace, as it has done previously before a push higher. be ready to react, could go either way
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
Bitcoin VERSUS The FED - rate rise effects on PAI am posting this again as I have seen some people wondering why Bitcoin is continueing to rise despite the Fed ( the DXY Support group) saying that they will continue to raise interest rates On this chart, we can see that 5 of the Rate raises had little Effect on Bitcoin PA and recovery was swift. One of the reasons for this is that Bitcoin is truly GLOBAL and while the DXY $ is currently a major part of world economies, this is changing. As the $ becomes more expensive to Borrow, people WILL go elsewhere. And Many people See Bitcoin as that avenue. The Expected remaing 3 raises of 25 points will effect PA but probably not as much as it will effect other Markets...which may well pipe money into Bitcoin and other crypto. GOLD could be an interesting thing to watch as, well, Gains in Bitcoin far out weight the gains from gold. There is little doubt thatthe Fed timed its raises perfectly and that they did instigate the fall of FTX and others. It needed to happen
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Orriginal
5
DXY daily chart and FEDDXY is looking like it needs a boost, and the FED just may have given it, saying larger Rate hikes on the way PA coming up under 200 MA as well as 768 fib line likely to be resistance MACD just above 0 so has room StochRSI overbought Ordinarily I would say that PA probably range under 200 But now, well, It may push harder today before close for the weekend. FED DEFIANTLY trying to Boost $ and this will be Negative for Markets It should be remembered that the FEDERAL RESERVE is a PRIVATE group of representatives of BANKS. It is NOT a Governmental organisation and its only reason for existence is to protect and strengthen the $, by any means it can. Raising interest rates increases the amount of money banks take back and so, by consequence, reduce the amount of moeny available for other markets. THAT is centralised Finance. The Very Thing that BITCOIN IS NOT Take care
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
1