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Market expects slowed US rate hikes in DecemberEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are to announce their interest rate decisions tomorrow, while sharing the same 75 basis points forecast. Upon some weakened economic indicator readings, Mitrade expects the two central banks would slow down on the rate hike next month. As a result, the greenback has also put the brakes on its peers, EUR/USD closed lower at 0.9874, just recovered to 0.9885, and GBP/USD added slightly to 1.1483. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.85%, aligning with market projections. USD/CAD rebounded to 1.3629, and USD/JPY declined and closed at 148.28. Upon raising hopes for China to re-open its cities and factories, WTI oil futures increased to $88.37 a barrel. Later tonight, the US Crude Oil Inventories are estimated to add 367,000 barrels. Gold price climbed to $1,647.8 an ounce, after reaching a high of 1,655.14.
by Mitrade_official
NZD higher ahead of employment reportNZD/USD is showing some strength today. In the North American session, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5838, up 0.41%. Earlier today, NZD/USD rose to 0.5902, its highest level since September 21st. New Zealand releases its Q3 employment report on Wednesday. The data is expected to reaffirm that the labour market remains robust. Employment Change is expected to rise to 0.5% (0.0% prior) and the unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower to 3.2% (3.3% prior). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to be pleased if employment numbers improved in Q3, as it points to inflation remaining high. Moreover, business sentiment is soft, with businesses concerned about rising labor costs and many of them planning to raise their prices. Inflation in Q3 came in at 7.2%, and the RBNZ finds itself much further behind inflation than it had anticipated. The cash rate is currently at 3.5% and the hot inflation report has analysts projecting that the cash rate won't peak until 5.0% or even higher in early 2023. This leaves the RBNZ with little choice but to continue with oversize rate hikes, despite the spectre that high interest rates will tip the economy into a recession. The Federal Reserve will announce its rate setting on Wednesday, with CME's Fed Watch pegging the likelihood of a 75 bp hike at 86%. This would bring the benchmark rate to 4.0%. The question on the minds of investors is what happens next? The last meeting of the year is on December 14th and the Fed is expected to begin to ease its foot off the rate pedal, likely in the form of a 50-bp hike. This will depend on economic data, especially inflation. If inflation isn't showing any signs of peaking, the Fed will have to consider another 75 bp hike. There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999 There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689
by OANDA
Aussie extends losses ahead of RBA meetingAUD/USD is down for a third straight day. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6395, down 0.24%. The RBA kicks off a busy week of central bank decisions when it meets on Tuesday. This will be followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. The RBA has delivered a steep rate-tightening cycle this year and the upcoming meeting will be live, as it remains unclear what the RBA has in store for the markets. The markets have priced in a second-straight 25-basis point hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.85%, its highest level since April 2013. There is, however, a 20% chance that the RBA will hike by a steep 50 basis points, given that the Bank's focus is on curbing inflation and the battle remains far from over. Headline inflation jumped to 7.3%, up from 6.1% in Q2, while core inflation hit 6.1%, up from 4.9%. The RBA expects headline inflation to peak at 7.5%, but other views have inflation rising as high as 8.0%. RBA Governor Lowe has caught the markets wrong-footed before - the 50 bp move in June was larger than expected, and the 25 bp in October was a surprise dovish pivot. This makes it tricky to predict the extent of the rate hike on Tuesday -  the markets are leaning heavily towards a 25 bp increase, but a 50 bp move should not be discounted. For the Federal Reserve, inflation is also a key concern. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE core index, rose to 5.1% in September, up from 4.9% a month earlier. That cements a 75 bp rate hike on Wednesday, even though there has been talk of the Fed easing up due to concerns about the economic outlook. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6403. The next support level is 0.6283 There is resistance at 0.6532 and 0.6652
by OANDA
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise? On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish. Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule. Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500. With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index. With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position. Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
10
3 possible gold movement depended on FED decisionsWeekly gold analysis 📝 Analysis: Gold in the past week! In the past week, gold has stopped following an uptrend as the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which rose nearly 1% in the last few days of the week, forced gold to pull back. Another reason for the decline in gold can be attributed to the rebound correction of the dollar index last weekend. But in relation to this week, The issue that analysts and big traders in the market have a consensus on is the risk and the possibility of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Over the past months, we have consistently seen extremely aggressive Federal Reserve policies. Aggressive increases in interest rates put pressure on the forex market. What we saw in both gold and cryptocurrency. But what is now apparent to traders are two issues 1. Slowing down the rate of inflation increases the speculation for the softening of the Federal Reserve's policies 2. Although inflation has not decreased significantly, we have seen decreases in the labor market Analysts and traders predict the possibility of the last cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve We never trade based on probabilities, but we tell all the possibilities in order to have a correct view of the market and avoid ambiguous trades. So, according to the information mentioned above, we will be waiting for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, November 2, together with the big market traders. The results obtained from this meeting will give us a better view of the future of gold. 📉 Technical view: 🔸 $1620 is our strong support area and $1680 🔸 By technical point of view, if I am looking to buy gold, I'm waiting for the price of gold stabilize above the rate of $1,700 🔸 But Personally, We are looking for another sell opportunity at $1680 and $1700 levels, and for taking any long positions, fundamentally, We will only think about it when there is a clear change in FED policies. 📰 Important calendar events: This week, a higher print of China MANUFACTURING PMI could be a driver for starting the week and the hope of the market. And the highlighted events are US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI and JOLTS JOB OPENINGS(SEP) because they are predicted tools for Wednesday 2Nov FOMC STATEMENT and FED INTEREST RATE DECISION Any higher print could push down the gold and stocks
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Alisabbaghi
Mid term electionsIn June’s masterclass I suggested the bottom of the crypto market wasn’t yet in. Since then a 40% mid bear cycle pump was profited from. Now we have a situation where volatility on the BBWP is at one of its most contracted states ever seen. Which heavily suggests a huge macro move pending. The world’s markets have been propped up for months... from Evergrand in China to Deutsche bank in Germany, or Credit Suisse in Switzerland and the Gilts in the UK. America has sold almost 90% of their strategic oil supplies just to get the price of fuel down to curb rising inflation and outrageously the definition of recession has been rewritten so as to ignore 2 quarters of negative GDP growth Oh... and repo market lending is reaching volumes similar to 2008 and 2020!! I am suggesting that the midterm election is of utmost importance to the Biden administration. Where 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. If the democrats lose the Senate then executive orders will be contested and historic mal decisions can be investigated, Inclusive of Hunter Biden’s laptop!! If the true state of the world economy was known by voters their decision making would be very different I believe. AFTER THE 8th WILL SOMETHING BREAK (MAYBE A GERMAN BANK?), WILL THE MARKETS CAPITULATE?, THE FED PIVOT? AND ASSETS BENEFIT FROM THE 18 MONTHS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STIMULUS? WILL THIS PLAY OUT THE SAME WAY AS THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND WE SEE AN 83% CORRECTION FROM BOTTOM TO TOP FINDING SUPPORT AT 12K WHICH HAS BEEN HISTORIC RESISTANCE? If this plays out it will be one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history. If it doesn't it is one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history!!
INDEX:BTCUSD
by MrGoose83
AUD/USD might fall significantly to 2020 loweAustralian inflation surpassed estimates in the third quarter, reaching a 32-year high, and the Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates again to battle inflationary pressures. Rising rent and fuel prices were the primary causes of the reading being higher than expected, as Australia grappled with high borrowing rates and rising commodity prices. Food costs rose dramatically throughout the quarter due to a mix of supply chain issues and harvest-related adverse weather. According to the bank, it's trying to find a balance between limiting the negative consequences of high interest rates on the economy and controlling inflation. It hiked rates seven times this year from record lows and declared that future rate hikes will be data-driven. The pressure on AUD/USD is expected to continue. In light of this, Credit Suisse economists predict that the pair may plunge to a 2020 low of 0.5506. A steeper decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate is anticipated. We anticipate a decline to the bottom from April 2020 at 0.6041/5978 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/21 upswing as long as medium-term momentum continues to be bearish. While another little halt is possible, a convincing break lower would increase the likelihood of a fall all the way to 0.5506, the 2020 bottom. "Any effort at a stronger move higher should be restrained at the sliding 55-day average of 0.6651."
Short
by TradeyMarkets
The Fed expected to ease rate hikes as the economy slowsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Upon a series of US economic data failing to meet their estimates, the market now believes the Federal Reserve is bound to be less aggressive in next week’s interest rate announcement. The news has weakened the greenback against its peers, USD/CAD plunged to 1.3606, and USD/JPY declined to 147.91. EUR/USD closed higher at 0.9964, edging closer back to parity. GBP/USD rose and stabilized at 1.1467, almost gaining 200 pips. Although Australia’s inflation problem is less severe than other major countries, it recorded a 1.8% increase in the price level - higher than the projected 1.6%, while AUD/USD rose to 0.6394. Despite the API Weekly Crude Oil Inventory having increased by 4.5 million barrels, WTI crude futures only had minor gains, as it briefly went to $85.89 and closed at $85.32 barrel. Gold price rose to a high of $1,660.47 an ounce and retreated to $1,653.22.
by Mitrade_official
Pound slides on Truss resignation falloutThe British pound is showing strong volatility in the wake of Prime Minister's Truss resignation. Truss resigned on Thursday after just 44 days in office, and the pound jumped as much as 1% before paring most of the gains. The reality of the political maelstrom engulfing the UK has set in and GBP/USD has plunged 1.1% today. The currency has touched a low of 1.1100, its lowest level since October 13th. The deep political crisis in the UK has seen two prime ministers resign in just two months and leaves the Conservatives in turmoil. The Conservatives will elect a new leader next week and fortunately for them, they do not need to call an election for two more years. Still, Truss's brief period as prime minister has caused political and financial chaos, and the new leader will have their work cut out to establish some semblance of normality for the country after the circus over the past few weeks. The Bank of England meets on November 3rd and with inflation climbing back into double digits, the Bank has little choice but to continue delivering oversize rates. Policy makers will likely be deliberating between a 0.75% and a full-point hike, which could give the beleaguered pound a much-needed boost. The Federal Reserve has signalled that it plans to remain aggressive, as priority number one remains the fight against soaring inflation. This hawkish position was outlined by Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday. Harker was blunt, saying that the Fed's rate hikes had failed to curb inflation and that rates would continue to rise "for a while". He added that rates would be "well above" 4% by the end of the year. Currently, the benchmark is at 3.25%, with the Fed holding its next meeting on November 2nd. The markets have received the message loud and clear, pricing in two more 0.75% increases in November and December. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1254. Above, there is resistance at 1.1399 There is support at 1.1162 and 1.1085
by OANDA
1
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: What's Next?Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
17
XAUUSD Bearish biasHello dear traders, I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area. I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas. For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest. Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy and the continuous rising yields. However, the global economy is not at the normal levels, so this USD strength might get exhausted after December. You can share your ideas on the comments!!! Good luck!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by The_Forex_Path
2
AUD/USD eyes job dataAUD/USD is considerably lower today, trading at 0.6273, down 0.57%. Australia releases employment data on Thursday, with the markets expecting that the report will show that the labour market remains robust. The economy is forecast to have created 25,000 jobs in September, following the 35,000 gain in August. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.5%. The strong labour market has enabled the RBA to continue its sharp rate-tightening cycle, with the cash rate currently at 2.60%. The central bank plans to continue raising rates, as the focus is on curbing inflation, which came in at 6.8% in August. The October inflation report will be especially significant, as it will be released just days before the RBA meeting on November 1st (in addition to the quarterly CPI report, Australia has started releasing a monthly inflation release, but it covers only 70% of goods and services). Higher rates will curb inflation eventually, but the cost could be an economic recession. Already, households are straining their budgets as inflation remains red-hot and higher interest rates are increasing borrowing repayments. This will likely dampen consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The Australian dollar has hit hard times. Since August 1st, AUD/USD has plunged 550 points, as risk sentiment has taken a beating and the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening has boosted the US dollar. China's economy has been struggling and the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with no end in sight, has sapped the appetite for risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. With the Fed likely to deliver more oversize rate hikes and China and Ukraine likely to remain hotspots, the outlook does not look bright for the Aussie. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6331 and 0.6460 0.6250 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.6121
by OANDA
USDJPY SellDear Traders, Many of us have been stopped by the strong uptrend of UJ. This is a counter trend idea. The Red area is Monthly Supply Zone since years ago. The fact that the prace is barely above in the 4H doesn't mean that it is now a demand zone. It has to be tested multiple times in order to be categorised as support. The pair needs breath to be corrected and the market cycles indicates overbought conditions with TDI giving us bearish divergence comparing to Price action. Maybe the big players are getting ready to close their profits. So, I count on a nice pullback with 4 potential profit levels. Good luck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path
1
BLK: Outflows will hurt?BLACKROCK Short Term - We look to Sell at 602.67 (stop at 646.89) The primary trend remains bearish. Sentiment remains negative despite the pull-back higher in prices. Previous support at 610.00 now becomes resistance. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 505.63 and 470.00 Resistance: 610.00 / 760.00 / 900.00 Support: 505.00 / 450.00 / 350.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:BLKShort
by VantageMarkets
Inflation not going to slow down for the US until 2028In the short term - like today! 8:30 EST 13 Oct 2022 If the CPI (measures inflation) comes out at above 8.2% this could lead to a market crash as the Fed would likely raise interest rates by another 100 bps on 2 November to curb inflation. If the CPI comes out below 8.2 this could spark a market rally as they will believe inflation is starting to cool down. In the long term. Price broke out of the W Formation and is showing major upside to come for Inflation. This could go on until 2028... If this happens, there is a potential Depression that could kick in world wide. This depression would then last for another 10 - 20 years (if they can get it under control). We need a government and quantitative reset... Sorry for the doom and gloom but it's not looking good technically.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by Timonrosso
USDCAD: Buy dips!USDCAD Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.3750 (stop at 1.3690) Previous support located at 1.3800. Previous resistance located at 1.3850. Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.3870 and 1.3900 Resistance: 1.3850 / 1.3870 / 1.3900 Support: 1.3800 / 1.3750 / 1.3700 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
The Fed is likely to increase interest rates furtherEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve reiterate the general directions for the central bank would be more rate hikes, allowing USD/CAD to close at 1.3814 after considerable oscillations, USD/JPY also reached a 24-year high at 146.91. Later tonight, year-on-year US CPI figures are expected to run hot at 8.1% - though lower than 8.3% last month. EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9704, recording minimal growth. The market awaits the German CPI tonight, forecasts estimate a steady 10% rise in September. Although the year-on-year UK GDP has contracted from 2.4% to 2.0%, GBP/USD still rose above the 1.110 level and closed at 1.1103. AUD/USD traded marginally higher at 0.6276. The gold price gradually increased to $1,673.26 an ounce. Struck by recession fears, WTI oil futures fell further to $87.27 a barrel.
by Mitrade_official
8892 on Nasdaq is imminent. It’s again quite simple. 8892 is only 10% lower from here. That’s just still not enough PE compression. We are still up 525% since January 2010. That’s ridiculous. Purely liquidity melt-up not based on any fundamentals. Earnings were also a garage.. If you know this now you’ll take the red pill and understand how Marcus will work going forward and how they always should have worked. Not 0% rates and unlimited quantitive, easing or QE . QT will be massive and constant for years. With rate hikes for foreseeable future. Period. At best. $200 a share for the S&P. Morgan Stanley had it at $190 a share. $200 a share X 14X equals 2800. Now that’s at best. On Nasdaq. Ultimately. After this failed 15 year fed experiment. And PPI sand CPI much higher than anything reported tomorrow or anytime, this will be an extremely deep recession. And 15-20% chance of a depression. Fed funds rate must be above the CPI rate. This is economics 101. Terminal rate will be north of 7%. Not 4%. The Fed will not stop. No matter what, so follow these “God Fibonacci levels” to the tee. Because the market probably has 20% more to fall at a minimum. And then you can talk about at least being somewhat close to properly priced. Everything is overvalued, especially the NASDAQ, which is the worst and S&P. be smart. Energy. Some healthcare, And qqq puts and spy puts. Nov/December time frame. Very important to have a good amount of QQQ and SPY puts. This is what the revenues are made. To hedge your portfolio and gain from times once in every hundred years a lottery ticket. Watch implied Vol. so you don’t over pay. And for godsakes, SELL EVERY SINGLE RALLY WITHOUT HESITATION. EVERY RALLY. Good luck
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by Section3133
4