DXY Parabolic Curve Pattern RetestThe parabolic curve pattern DXY has been forming for over 16 months was broken on October 21st.
DXY bounced at the 109.53 level and now appears to be retesting the curve.
I see the following support levels if DXY is rejected at the curve.
1) At the previous bounce level (109.53)
2) Near the 105 level.
3) Near the 101 level.
Thoughts:
1) The hawkish FED continues to fuel the dollar.
2) Next weeks CPI numbers will be very important. If there isn't a significant drop, that will strengthen the FED's resolve to remain hawkish.
3) A strong labor market also emboldens the FED's hawkish stance. Until there is a significant sign of labor market weakness, the FED will remain hawkish.
4) With every FED meeting and rate hike, the likelihood of the FED overshooting increases.
5) Everything here is just my opinion and may be flawed.
Federalreserve
GBP/USD plunges on Powell, BOE warningThe British pound is sharply lower today. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.179, down 1.83%. It has been a dreadful week for the pound, which has declined by 3.7%.
The Bank of England delivered as advertised, raising rates by a super-size 75 basis points today in a 7-2 vote. This was the sharpest rate hike since 1989 and brings the cash rate to 3.0%.
The jumbo rate hike comes at a delicate time, with the BoE warning that the UK is in a "prolonged recession". The BoE is projecting inflation will hit 11% before the end of the year and estimates that the recession could last two years. The Bank said that further rate hikes would be needed, but the terminal rate would be lower than what the markets have priced in, which is 5.2%.
The BoE has not only witnessed a tumultuous period since the last meeting in September, but had to make its rate decision and forecasts without knowing government policy. A budget was supposed to be released last week but has been delayed until November 17th. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss' ill-fated mini-budget led to a near financial crisis and forced the BoE to buy massive amounts of bonds. Thankfully, stability has returned and the BoE began selling bonds earlier this week.
The BoE's message to lower expectations about future rate hikes runs contrary to what Fed Chair Powell said at the Fed meeting on Wednesday. Powell warned that there were no signs that inflation had peaked and said that rates will peak at a higher level than previously expected. This hawkish message sent equity markets sharply lower and boosted the US dollar against all the major currencies. The double-barreled punch of a hawkish Fed and grim warnings from the BoE have sent the pound reeling close to 2% today.
There is resistance at 1.1346 and 1.1506
1.1118 and 1.1045 and providing support
Sell position on USOIL after Fed ConferenceFundamental:
11/02/22 | 14:00
“The Fed is expected to proceed with another large rate hike of 75 basis points,” said Susannah Streeter, investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.
= Upcoming rate increase
"There are high hopes indicating that there may be some easing in the US central bank's aggressive approach to tackling inflation," she said.
= Possible “slowed down” by the Fed on interest rates
Traders expect a rise of just 50 BP in December, after three consecutive increases of 75 points.
These are mainly supported by the luxury sector and the health sector thanks to speculation on an easing of health restrictions in China and the solid results of Novo Nordisk.
= Luxury sector in power + economy slow down
In the United States, ten-year (US10YT=RR) and two-year (US2YT=RR) US Treasury bond yields are also flat, at 4.046% and 4.528% respectively.
= Stagnant bond markets
Oil prices are broadly stable pending the Fed. A possible drop in crude inventories in the United States, the upcoming European sanctions against Russia and speculation of an easing of sanitary restrictions in China offer some support, however.
Brent rose 0.05% to 94.70 dollars a barrel and US light crude (West Texas Intermediate, WTI) 0.03% to 88.40 dollars.
= Temporization of oil but there's a hope of falling
Total crude oil inventories fell 5 million barrels in the week ending October 28, with commercial oil inventories down 3.1 million barrels and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories down 1.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell last week while distillate petroleum inventories edged up.
= Oil scarcity
11/02/22 | 20:00
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell began his press conference after the meeting at 7:30 p.m. The decision itself was in line with market expectations, but the changes to the accompanying statement were seen as accommodating. So the US dollar fell, while gold and indices gained ground.
= The Fed intends to slow the rise in rates, the ultimate level of rates will be higher than expected. EURUSD remains high + Fed decisions affect markets with lag.
Technical :
H4 : Eliott waves (1,2,3,4,5), 5th wave ended, beginning of the correction (A,B,C,...),
High sell volume under 88$,
Momentum bearish divergence,
Low ADX on past trend, increasing ADX on decreasing trend
Gold to target $1660 Gold price is the recent recovery gains at $1650 on the US Federal Reserve day. XAUUSD bulls could target $1660 - $1670 on Fed’s dovish rate hike. On a hawkish surprise, xauusd price could result its broader downtrend, the demand area seen at $1637 - $1642. After the break $1620 and October low at $1617 could be threatened. Yellow metal price to remain firmer but the smaller moves are likely to be seen ahead of the FOMC tonight. We are looking to buy gold with a target of $1660.
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
Really short FOMC Report today as we're already taking advantage of the range and shorting from above.
Illustrated on the chart are the key levels to look for if there is an FOMC move! Its likely to be priced in, however, the press conference with Powell after the statement may move the market. We'll be looking again for extreme levels to long or short the market, anything in between we'll leave for intraday trading as we don't really want to get caught mid-move.
From Camelot this morning:
XAUUSD 02/11/22 1H
Support: 1639 / 1635 / 1630 / 1624 / 1620 / 1613
Resistance: 1645 / 1654 / 1667 / 1670 / 1675 / 1681
KOGs Bias for the day:
Bearish below 1655 with targets below 1630 and below that 1613
Bullish on break of 1655 with targets above 1665 and above that 1680
Summary:
Excalibur target above which we said yesterday was likely. Let’s see how the price reacts around the 60-65 region if it gets there. Plan remains the same until we break and hold above the key level.
FOMC today so please take it easy on the markets. Don’t risk your accounts for one hit wonder trades!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Swissie drifting ahead of inflation releaseThe Swiss franc is showing little movement for a second straight day. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.9993, down 0.03%.
Consumer confidence fell in the October survey to -47, down from -42 in the previous quarter. This marked a record low, as Swiss consumers have become even more pessimistic about the economic outlook. The survey found that consumers are concerned about inflation and are cautious about making large purchases. Inflation has been on the rise, but the 3.3% pace reported in September pales in comparison to the double digits we are seeing in the eurozone and the UK. The October inflation report will be released on Thursday, with a forecast of 3.2%.
The Swiss economy is going through a rough spell, and this is reflected in the KOF Economic Barometer, a useful measure of economic activity. The index decreased in October to 90.9, down from 92.3 in September. This marked the sixth successive month that the index has been below the long-term average of 100. The primary driver of the downturn was manufacturing, which has been hurt by sluggish global demand.
The Federal Reserve is virtually certain to raise rates by 0.75% at today's meeting, but what happens next is uncertain. The Fed seems to be getting close to the end of the current tightening cycle, but hopes that it will ease up on rates as early as next month could be premature, as inflation remains stubbornly high. The Fed signalled a 4.6% terminal rate in September, but the markets are currently pricing in a terminal rate of 5.0% early next year. Investors are already looking ahead to the December meeting, and they will be looking for clues from Fed Chair Powell about what he has planned in the coming months.
USD/CHF faces resistance at 1.0047 and 1.0137
There is support at 0.9944 and 0.9857
Market expects slowed US rate hikes in DecemberEUR/USD 🔽
GBP/USD 🔼
AUD/USD 🔽
USD/CAD 🔼
USD/JPY 🔽
XAU 🔼
WTI 🔼
Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are to announce their interest rate decisions tomorrow, while sharing the same 75 basis points forecast. Upon some weakened economic indicator readings, Mitrade expects the two central banks would slow down on the rate hike next month.
As a result, the greenback has also put the brakes on its peers, EUR/USD closed lower at 0.9874, just recovered to 0.9885, and GBP/USD added slightly to 1.1483. Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 2.85%, aligning with market projections.
USD/CAD rebounded to 1.3629, and USD/JPY declined and closed at 148.28.
Upon raising hopes for China to re-open its cities and factories, WTI oil futures increased to $88.37 a barrel. Later tonight, the US Crude Oil Inventories are estimated to add 367,000 barrels. Gold price climbed to $1,647.8 an ounce, after reaching a high of 1,655.14.
NZD higher ahead of employment reportNZD/USD is showing some strength today. In the North American session, the New Zealand dollar is trading at 0.5838, up 0.41%. Earlier today, NZD/USD rose to 0.5902, its highest level since September 21st.
New Zealand releases its Q3 employment report on Wednesday. The data is expected to reaffirm that the labour market remains robust. Employment Change is expected to rise to 0.5% (0.0% prior) and the unemployment rate is forecast to tick lower to 3.2% (3.3% prior).
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to be pleased if employment numbers improved in Q3, as it points to inflation remaining high. Moreover, business sentiment is soft, with businesses concerned about rising labor costs and many of them planning to raise their prices. Inflation in Q3 came in at 7.2%, and the RBNZ finds itself much further behind inflation than it had anticipated. The cash rate is currently at 3.5% and the hot inflation report has analysts projecting that the cash rate won't peak until 5.0% or even higher in early 2023. This leaves the RBNZ with little choice but to continue with oversize rate hikes, despite the spectre that high interest rates will tip the economy into a recession.
The Federal Reserve will announce its rate setting on Wednesday, with CME's Fed Watch pegging the likelihood of a 75 bp hike at 86%. This would bring the benchmark rate to 4.0%. The question on the minds of investors is what happens next? The last meeting of the year is on December 14th and the Fed is expected to begin to ease its foot off the rate pedal, likely in the form of a 50-bp hike. This will depend on economic data, especially inflation. If inflation isn't showing any signs of peaking, the Fed will have to consider another 75 bp hike.
There is resistance at 0.5906 and 0.5999
There is support at 0.5782 and 0.5689
Aussie extends losses ahead of RBA meetingAUD/USD is down for a third straight day. The Australian dollar is trading at 0.6395, down 0.24%.
The RBA kicks off a busy week of central bank decisions when it meets on Tuesday. This will be followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday.
The RBA has delivered a steep rate-tightening cycle this year and the upcoming meeting will be live, as it remains unclear what the RBA has in store for the markets. The markets have priced in a second-straight 25-basis point hike, which would bring the cash rate to 2.85%, its highest level since April 2013. There is, however, a 20% chance that the RBA will hike by a steep 50 basis points, given that the Bank's focus is on curbing inflation and the battle remains far from over. Headline inflation jumped to 7.3%, up from 6.1% in Q2, while core inflation hit 6.1%, up from 4.9%. The RBA expects headline inflation to peak at 7.5%, but other views have inflation rising as high as 8.0%.
RBA Governor Lowe has caught the markets wrong-footed before - the 50 bp move in June was larger than expected, and the 25 bp in October was a surprise dovish pivot. This makes it tricky to predict the extent of the rate hike on Tuesday - the markets are leaning heavily towards a 25 bp increase, but a 50 bp move should not be discounted.
For the Federal Reserve, inflation is also a key concern. The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE core index, rose to 5.1% in September, up from 4.9% a month earlier. That cements a 75 bp rate hike on Wednesday, even though there has been talk of the Fed easing up due to concerns about the economic outlook.
AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6403. The next support level is 0.6283
There is resistance at 0.6532 and 0.6652
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low?
Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise?
On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish.
Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule.
Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500.
With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index.
With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position.
Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
3 possible gold movement depended on FED decisionsWeekly gold analysis
📝 Analysis:
Gold in the past week!
In the past week, gold has stopped following an uptrend as the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, which rose nearly 1% in the last few days of the week, forced gold to pull back.
Another reason for the decline in gold can be attributed to the rebound correction of the dollar index last weekend.
But in relation to this week,
The issue that analysts and big traders in the market have a consensus on is the risk and the possibility of slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Over the past months, we have consistently seen extremely aggressive Federal Reserve policies.
Aggressive increases in interest rates put pressure on the forex market. What we saw in both gold and cryptocurrency.
But what is now apparent to traders are two issues
1. Slowing down the rate of inflation increases the speculation for the softening of the Federal Reserve's policies
2. Although inflation has not decreased significantly, we have seen decreases in the labor market
Analysts and traders predict the possibility of the last cycle of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve
We never trade based on probabilities, but we tell all the possibilities in order to have a correct view of the market and avoid ambiguous trades.
So, according to the information mentioned above, we will be waiting for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, November 2, together with the big market traders. The results obtained from this meeting will give us a better view of the future of gold.
📉 Technical view:
🔸 $1620 is our strong support area and $1680
🔸 By technical point of view, if I am looking to buy gold, I'm waiting for the price of gold stabilize above the rate of $1,700
🔸 But Personally, We are looking for another sell opportunity at $1680 and $1700 levels, and for taking any long positions, fundamentally, We will only think about it when there is a clear change in FED policies.
📰 Important calendar events:
This week, a higher print of China MANUFACTURING PMI could be a driver for starting the week and the hope of the market.
And the highlighted events are US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI and JOLTS JOB OPENINGS(SEP)
because they are predicted tools for Wednesday 2Nov FOMC STATEMENT and FED INTEREST RATE DECISION
Any higher print could push down the gold and stocks
Mid term electionsIn June’s masterclass I suggested the bottom of the crypto market wasn’t yet in. Since then a 40% mid bear cycle pump was profited from. Now we have a situation where volatility on the BBWP is at one of its most contracted states ever seen. Which heavily suggests a huge macro move pending.
The world’s markets have been propped up for months... from Evergrand in China to Deutsche bank in Germany, or Credit Suisse in Switzerland and the Gilts in the UK. America has sold almost 90% of their strategic oil supplies just to get the price of fuel down to curb rising inflation and outrageously the definition of recession has been rewritten so as to ignore 2 quarters of negative GDP growth Oh... and repo market lending is reaching volumes similar to 2008 and 2020!!
I am suggesting that the midterm election is of utmost importance to the Biden administration. Where 435 seats in the House of Representatives, and 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs. If the democrats lose the Senate then executive orders will be contested and historic mal decisions can be investigated, Inclusive of Hunter Biden’s laptop!! If the true state of the world economy was known by voters their decision making would be very different I believe. AFTER THE 8th WILL SOMETHING BREAK (MAYBE A GERMAN BANK?), WILL THE MARKETS CAPITULATE?, THE FED PIVOT? AND ASSETS BENEFIT FROM THE 18 MONTHS OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STIMULUS? WILL THIS PLAY OUT THE SAME WAY AS THE LAST MIDTERM ELECTIONS AND WE SEE AN 83% CORRECTION FROM BOTTOM TO TOP FINDING SUPPORT AT 12K WHICH HAS BEEN HISTORIC RESISTANCE?
If this plays out it will be one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history. If it doesn't it is one of the best buying opportunities in crypto history!!
AUD/USD might fall significantly to 2020 loweAustralian inflation surpassed estimates in the third quarter, reaching a 32-year high, and the Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates again to battle inflationary pressures.
Rising rent and fuel prices were the primary causes of the reading being higher than expected, as Australia grappled with high borrowing rates and rising commodity prices. Food costs rose dramatically throughout the quarter due to a mix of supply chain issues and harvest-related adverse weather.
According to the bank, it's trying to find a balance between limiting the negative consequences of high interest rates on the economy and controlling inflation. It hiked rates seven times this year from record lows and declared that future rate hikes will be data-driven.
The pressure on AUD/USD is expected to continue. In light of this, Credit Suisse economists predict that the pair may plunge to a 2020 low of 0.5506.
A steeper decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate is anticipated.
We anticipate a decline to the bottom from April 2020 at 0.6041/5978 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/21 upswing as long as medium-term momentum continues to be bearish. While another little halt is possible, a convincing break lower would increase the likelihood of a fall all the way to 0.5506, the 2020 bottom.
"Any effort at a stronger move higher should be restrained at the sliding 55-day average of 0.6651."
The Fed expected to ease rate hikes as the economy slowsEUR/USD 🔼
GBP/USD 🔼
AUD/USD 🔼
USD/CAD 🔽
USD/JPY 🔽
XAU 🔼
WTI 🔼
Upon a series of US economic data failing to meet their estimates, the market now believes the Federal Reserve is bound to be less aggressive in next week’s interest rate announcement. The news has weakened the greenback against its peers, USD/CAD plunged to 1.3606, and USD/JPY declined to 147.91.
EUR/USD closed higher at 0.9964, edging closer back to parity. GBP/USD rose and stabilized at 1.1467, almost gaining 200 pips. Although Australia’s inflation problem is less severe than other major countries, it recorded a 1.8% increase in the price level - higher than the projected 1.6%, while AUD/USD rose to 0.6394.
Despite the API Weekly Crude Oil Inventory having increased by 4.5 million barrels, WTI crude futures only had minor gains, as it briefly went to $85.89 and closed at $85.32 barrel. Gold price rose to a high of $1,660.47 an ounce and retreated to $1,653.22.
EURUSD Shorts Approaching parity-The dollar is coming in weak this week as EURUSD is approaching parity. Will be waiting for the institutional sellers to enter the market around 1.0000, then looking to enter the market after clear selling pressure.
-This pair has been due for a pullback for a few weeks now.
-The FED is remaining hawkish, as we are waiting a potential 1.0 bp hike at the next FOMC meeting so I'm still bullish on the $, assuming this is just a bear market rally.
a massive drop for USD / shortSo as you know the Federal Reserve is increasing the interest rate to control the inflation but how long it can last and one day that's not going to work anymore and in that day a really massive drop will happen to the US dollars and I'm not telling you to get shorts on US Dollars even but I'm telling you to get Long's on the gold because in that day gold is going to fly
anyway I going to share some ideas about gold for you soon
Pound slides on Truss resignation falloutThe British pound is showing strong volatility in the wake of Prime Minister's Truss resignation. Truss resigned on Thursday after just 44 days in office, and the pound jumped as much as 1% before paring most of the gains. The reality of the political maelstrom engulfing the UK has set in and GBP/USD has plunged 1.1% today. The currency has touched a low of 1.1100, its lowest level since October 13th.
The deep political crisis in the UK has seen two prime ministers resign in just two months and leaves the Conservatives in turmoil. The Conservatives will elect a new leader next week and fortunately for them, they do not need to call an election for two more years. Still, Truss's brief period as prime minister has caused political and financial chaos, and the new leader will have their work cut out to establish some semblance of normality for the country after the circus over the past few weeks.
The Bank of England meets on November 3rd and with inflation climbing back into double digits, the Bank has little choice but to continue delivering oversize rates. Policy makers will likely be deliberating between a 0.75% and a full-point hike, which could give the beleaguered pound a much-needed boost.
The Federal Reserve has signalled that it plans to remain aggressive, as priority number one remains the fight against soaring inflation. This hawkish position was outlined by Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday. Harker was blunt, saying that the Fed's rate hikes had failed to curb inflation and that rates would continue to rise "for a while". He added that rates would be "well above" 4% by the end of the year. Currently, the benchmark is at 3.25%, with the Fed holding its next meeting on November 2nd. The markets have received the message loud and clear, pricing in two more 0.75% increases in November and December.
GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1254. Above, there is resistance at 1.1399
There is support at 1.1162 and 1.1085
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: What's Next?Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart.
1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s.
2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months.
3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges.
4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below).
5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0.
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
XAUUSD Bearish biasHello dear traders,
I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area.
I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas.
For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest.
Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy and the continuous rising yields.
However, the global economy is not at the normal levels, so this USD strength might get exhausted after December.
You can share your ideas on the comments!!!
Good luck!
AUD/USD eyes job dataAUD/USD is considerably lower today, trading at 0.6273, down 0.57%.
Australia releases employment data on Thursday, with the markets expecting that the report will show that the labour market remains robust. The economy is forecast to have created 25,000 jobs in September, following the 35,000 gain in August. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.5%. The strong labour market has enabled the RBA to continue its sharp rate-tightening cycle, with the cash rate currently at 2.60%. The central bank plans to continue raising rates, as the focus is on curbing inflation, which came in at 6.8% in August. The October inflation report will be especially significant, as it will be released just days before the RBA meeting on November 1st (in addition to the quarterly CPI report, Australia has started releasing a monthly inflation release, but it covers only 70% of goods and services).
Higher rates will curb inflation eventually, but the cost could be an economic recession. Already, households are straining their budgets as inflation remains red-hot and higher interest rates are increasing borrowing repayments. This will likely dampen consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth.
The Australian dollar has hit hard times. Since August 1st, AUD/USD has plunged 550 points, as risk sentiment has taken a beating and the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening has boosted the US dollar. China's economy has been struggling and the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with no end in sight, has sapped the appetite for risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. With the Fed likely to deliver more oversize rate hikes and China and Ukraine likely to remain hotspots, the outlook does not look bright for the Aussie.
AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6331 and 0.6460
0.6250 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.6121
USDJPY SellDear Traders,
Many of us have been stopped by the strong uptrend of UJ.
This is a counter trend idea.
The Red area is Monthly Supply Zone since years ago. The fact that the prace is barely above in the 4H doesn't mean that it is now a demand zone.
It has to be tested multiple times in order to be categorised as support.
The pair needs breath to be corrected and the market cycles indicates overbought conditions with TDI giving us bearish divergence comparing to Price action. Maybe the big players are getting ready to close their profits.
So, I count on a nice pullback with 4 potential profit levels.
Good luck!