TradeCityPro | ATOMUSDT the FOMC Meeting Results👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let's go together on the day that the FOMC meeting and Powell's speech were held a few minutes ago, let's take a look at the results and today's talks and analyze the altcoins on the daily time frame for you.
🌐 Overview Bitcoin
Let's go together and take a look at Bitcoin, which did not have much of an impact on the interest rate news tonight and a few minutes ago, but Powell's speeches caused it to record a large but low time frame.
As expected, the score and tonight's session also had a result that was predicted in advance and it can be said that it did not affect crypto and others much and its impact on the time frame was low, but it is likely that this Bitcoin trend will continue and let's go for a new move that will be accompanied by an increase in the possible dominance of Bitcoin
The most important points of the FOMC press conference with Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve growth:
Overall, the economy in 2024 was above 2% thanks to consumer spending , In the middle of last year, housing activity stabilized .The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressures! , In three meetings, we have reduced the interest rate by 100 basis points.
Currently, monetary conditions are less restrictive and we are in no hurry to reduce it, if inflation moves towards the 2% target as expected, we will keep the interest rate unchanged for a longer period of time.
📈 Daily Timeframe
In the daily time frame, the atom rejected from 10.322 and made a lower ceiling at 7.447. Currently, it is forming a lower ceiling and ceiling, but it has more than its daily box.
Also, this move causes us to be in a falling wedge, which is bullish in nature and we usually fall into this pattern from a decline and after its trigger is activated, it sees a trend change forward and in any case it breaks from the floor. This pattern fails
To buy again in the spot, you can break the trigger of this pattern at 6.266 and buy, but make sure that this pattern breaks and a higher ceiling and ceiling is recorded and we make our purchase at 7.44, the weekly box ceiling trigger. It is also 10.332
After the break of 5.675, if the market corrects, you can move up to the level of 4.923, but after the break of 3.907, I will remove myself and take my coins out of the stake and cash them out because I saw the possibility of a 30% drop and I will not be with it.
📝 Final Thoughts
Stay calm, trade wisely, and let's capture the market's best opportunities!
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
Federalreserve
Dow Jones 30 is near its all-time high. Can we create a new one?Can the Fed help the MARKETSCOM:US30 move a bit further north and establish a new all-time high? There is a possibility for that, however, we need to wait for the Fed press conference, when market volatility may increase significantly. That said, let the market settle and we can see what we can do. Check the video for more details.
TVC:DJI
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EURUSD - Will the dollar weakness stop?!The EURUSD currency pair is located above EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. Maintaining the drawn ascending channel will lead to a continuation of the upward trend towards the channel ceiling. A correction of this currency pair towards the demand zone will provide us with its next opportunity to buy it.
Donald Trump’s remarks about imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico have sparked concerns among European companies. A report by Bank of America (BofA) highlights dozens of European firms that are vulnerable to these tariffs due to their supply chain dependencies and revenue exposure.
Among these companies, the Italian automaker Stellantis stands out. According to the report, Stellantis operates 16 supply chain links in Canada and derives 47% of its total revenue from North America. Similarly, the German auto giant BMW has 18 supply chain links in Canada and generates 26% of its revenue from the United States.
In the energy sector, the UK-based utility company National Grid, with a market value of €58 billion, has a significant presence in the U.S., where 50% of its assets and 54% of its revenue originate. Although its tangible supply chain exposure in Mexico and Canada is relatively low, its extensive operations in the U.S. make it highly susceptible to the negative impacts of these tariffs.
Eurozone Bank Lending Survey – January 2025:
• Credit Standards: In Q4 2024, corporate credit standards tightened due to rising perceived risks and reduced risk tolerance.
• Mortgage Loans: Credit standards for household mortgages remained unchanged, but lending conditions for consumer credit tightened further.
• Loan Demand: Mortgage loan demand surged significantly, while corporate loan demand remained weak.
According to analysts at Standard Chartered, financial markets are currently overly focused on Donald Trump’s economic policies, potentially overlooking the risks associated with this week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision today following a two-day meeting. It is widely expected that the interest rate will remain within the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. However, investors are keen to find clues regarding the timing of future rate cuts. Based on market pricing, expectations suggest a 40-basis-point rate cut by December.
A key unknown factor influencing this outlook is Donald Trump’s policies. He has recently called on the Fed to lower interest rates. Additionally, his tariff policies, which include imposing high tariffs on both allies and competitors, could further drive inflationary pressures.
As a result, the Fed may proceed cautiously with its rate-cut cycle. However, Trump’s administration has not yet implemented widespread tariffs, though he has threatened to do so.
Meanwhile, some Fed officials have recently signaled a more hawkish stance. There is also speculation that the Fed may seek to assert its independence at the beginning of Trump’s new presidential term by resisting his demands. If the Fed takes such a position, Trump may respond aggressively, which could further heighten market uncertainty.
WTI: Will oil return to the upward trajectory?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable reward for risk will be provided to us. A valid breakdown of the drawn downtrend line and preservation of the channel will pave the way for oil to reach the drawn ranges.
Under the pressure of imminent sanctions planned by the Trump administration and the debts Iran now owes to China, the country has begun offloading crude oil that had been stored in Chinese warehouses for years. This oil, shipped to China between 2018 and 2019 but not officially declared in Chinese customs records, was kept in isolated, pre-designated storage facilities. With storage costs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, Iran is now obligated to cover these expenses. So far, 5.4 million barrels of oil have been removed from a Chinese port, transported by a total of four tankers.
According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current supply policy in its meeting next week. This decision contradicts the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged oil producers to increase output to lower prices and exert more economic pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Under the current plan, oil supply restrictions will remain in place for this quarter and will gradually ease starting in April.
Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order to initiate the development of a “next-generation” missile defense system in the United States. This system, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, is designed to protect the U.S. from ballistic missile attacks, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other modern aerial threats.
According to the released information, the executive order aims to establish an advanced space-based missile defense system capable of detecting and neutralizing missiles launched toward the U.S. Conceptually, this resembles Israel’s Iron Dome, which has been used for years to intercept and destroy rockets fired from Gaza. The U.S.government has already invested billions of dollars in developing Israel’s Iron Dome, and the American military possesses its own missile defense systems.
The order describes missile attacks as a “catastrophic threat,” but no details have been provided regarding the project’s costs or timeline. Developing a comprehensive missile defense system for a country as geographically vast as the U.S. is a highly complex and costly endeavor. Additionally, the emergence of next-generation missile threats, such as hypersonic missiles that travel at extremely high speeds, presents significant technical challenges. This indicates that the project will require substantial investment and time for completion.
SWING TRADE SETUP ON EURUSD We had a nice move to the upside yesterday following a shift on the 1H timeframe, Hope some of you were able to catch the move to the upside.
If not there is another setup that I am looking at. This is a swing setup and if played out I expect for TP to be hit within the week.
The main thing to keep in mind is that we have interest rate decisions for both the FED and ECB.
Depending on how the numbers come out this setup will stay valid or EURUSD will break below the invalidation point and continue it's move to the down side. Good risk management is key with these news events.
EURUSD Sellers have an advantage towards Trump's Inauguration After carefully following up on US and EURO Zone data. We can positively say that the data has been favorable to the dollar. As at now the Fed has reduced the number of expected cuts this yr while ECB maintains a dovish tone promising a series of cuts even if they are not to be consistent. Also we have seen the NFP Data high and unemployment declining. If Trump maintains his stand on tariffs we should expect the EURO to be hurt.
AUD/USD: Neutrality Emerges in the Bearish ChannelThe dominance of the US dollar, driven by expectations of a high interest rate (4.5%) from the Federal Reserve as the annual CPI (2.9%) remains far from the 2% target , has weakened the Australian dollar in the short term. The AUD/USD has lost 11% of its value since late September 2024, and for now, neutrality has taken over the market as the next Federal Reserve decision (January 29) approaches.
Bearish Channel
The bearish channel stands out as the most significant technical formation on the chart currently. The price has consistently adhered to oscillations between the channel’s upper and lower boundaries. However, recent minor bullish corrections have led to price stagnation near the support zone, which aligns with the channel's current upper boundary. Over time, this could challenge the integrity of the bearish formation, particularly if short-term buying pressure continues to build.
Neutral Movements
The ADX indicator line remains above the neutral zone of 20 but has started to decline steadily from its recent highs in the 40 range.
The TRIX line continues to oscillate below the neutral 0 zone, indicating that the average movements of the exponential moving averages have been predominantly bearish. However, the line’s slope has turned positive and is gradually approaching the neutral zone in the short term.
Both indicator trends suggest that the long bearish momentum might be experiencing a period of exhaustion, coinciding with the neutrality generated by the current support zone. If this effect persists, the existing bearish channel may struggle to generate new lows in the coming sessions.
Key Levels
0.62906: Current resistance level. Persistent oscillations near this level could ultimately invalidate the current bearish channel formation dominating the chart.
0.61929: A key support level, responsible for halting the long bearish trend. It aligns with recent weekly lows and the upper boundary of the bearish channel. Sustained oscillations below this level could signal a new phase of selling pressure and revive the current bearish trend.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
SPX Continues to Fall Following the NFP ReleaseAfter the surprising report of 256k jobs created compared to the expected 160k, the U.S. index has experienced a decline of over 1% in the last trading hours. This is due to the perception that strong employment data could be counterproductive to the outlook for future interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Lateral Range:
Recently, the price has been trading within a significant lateral range between the 6k-point ceiling and the 5.8k-point floor. With the recent bearish movement, a break below the lower boundary of the channel could end the current consolidation and favor a new short-term bearish outlook. Sustained oscillations below the mentioned support level could define the next downward price movement.
RSI:
At the moment, the RSI is oscillating below the indicator's neutral 50 line. This indicates that bearish momentum dominates the market, with no signs of oversold conditions that might suggest potential bullish corrections.
Key Levels:
5.8k: This level currently serves as the relevant support zone, coinciding with the lower boundary of the lateral channel and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. Persistent oscillations below this level could support a bearish outlook in the coming sessions.
6k: This represents the primary resistance level on the chart. Oscillations near or above this level could end the ongoing bearish pressure and pave the way for new all-time highs.
5.6k: The next significant support zone, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Oscillations near this level could lead to a solid bearish trend and completely negate the long-term uptrend that has been in place since August 2024.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
EUR/USD: Neutrality Dominates Movements Around the 1.0250 ZoneThe U.S. dollar continues to gain ground as the Fed remains firm in slowing down rate cuts. The interest rate differential of 4.5% from the Fed versus 3.15% from the ECB remains a key reason for the market's preference for the U.S. dollar in the short term.
Bearish Trend:
The trend in favor of the U.S. dollar remains intact since late September 2024. So far, there are no significant breaks above 1.04091 that would threaten the current bearish formation.
RSI Divergence : Lower lows in price and higher lows in the RSI indicate a bullish divergence in the short term. This suggests an imbalance in selling pressure and the potential for upward corrections. Monitoring the nearby resistance at 1.0491 is critical for these upcoming oscillations.
Key Levels:
1.04091: Nearby resistance that coincides with the bearish trendline. Potential upward corrections may stall at this level.
1.02517: Main short-term support, the lowest level seen in recent months. Breaks below this price could accelerate selling pressure.
1.06031: Key resistance, the December high. Oscillations around this level could jeopardize the current bearish trend.
-JP
XAUUSD - Gold is waiting for an important week!!In the 4-hour timeframe, gold is above the EMA200 and EMA50 and is in its short-term descending channel. The continued rise of gold towards the supply zones will provide a position to sell it with a suitable risk reward.
The year 2024 turned out to be unprecedented for the global gold market. This precious metal witnessed a remarkable growth of nearly 30%, outperforming all other commodities and emerging as one of the most prominent financial assets of the year. Such exceptional performance has continued to gain the trust of analysts and professionals in the gold and jewelry industry, drawing the attention of many traders to this market.
Despite forecasts suggesting that gold prices could surpass $3,000 per ounce in 2025, the beginning of 2024 told a different story. Spot gold prices started the year at around $2,000 but fell to $1,992 by mid-February. However, Valentine’s Day marked a turning point, as gold rebounded strongly, climbing back above $2,000 and successfully maintaining this critical level.
A significant market milestone occurred at the end of February. In just two days, gold prices surged by over $60, and on the first trading day of March, the metal broke past the $2,100 threshold, setting a new record. After a period of price consolidation at higher levels, gold resumed its upward trend in the final days of the month, surpassing $2,200. By mid-April, gold approached the $2,400 mark. However, traders were not yet prepared to accept these levels, and by the end of April, spot gold prices had retreated below $2,300.
May saw renewed optimism in the precious metals market. On May 16, spot gold decisively broke through the $2,400 resistance level. Nonetheless, after reaching a peak of $2,426, prices entered the longest consolidation phase of 2024.
Finally, on June 10, gold once again broke the $2,400 resistance and managed to establish it as a support level. From that point onward, gold embarked on one of its most stable upward trends of the year, which continued through late summer and early autumn. On October 30, gold prices hit a new record of $2,788.54 per ounce.
However, the election of Donald Trump on November 5, 2024 (15th of Aban 1403), interrupted gold’s rally. Spot gold, which had reached $2,743 on November 4, dropped within 10 days to the $2,560 range.
Nevertheless, gold quickly found new support. The president-elect’s threats of tariffs and trade wars, combined with renewed inflationary concerns, pushed gold prices back above $2,700. Although the metal did not return to its October highs, it maintained strong support at $2,600 for the remainder of the year, preventing further declines.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs revised its forecast for gold prices, stating that the metal would not reach $3,000 in 2025. However, the bank remains optimistic that gold prices will continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace than before.
BITCOIN hasn't made a new high versus M1 money since 2017What does it do
You see what could be a continuation inverse head and shoulders
and the two targets.
PLAN B hot alot of people wrecked last time, and he still adamant #BTC will hit $500K this cycle.
The chart says otherwise
and more likely we peak above the high meet the linear target & double top (at least for now )
what say you?
BTCUSD Wyckoff Accumulation Phase completedLets assume that the strength in the US dollar wont last for too much longer, as Central Banks try and work out how many more trillions are needed in the system.
The BTCUSD had been in a trading range for some time and this week we convincingly left it, with a big dose of Bullish price action.
Will it last? IDK. I am long BTCUSD so I am fundamentally in the Bitcoin 🚀 camp so I am also talking up my own book.
However, if we look to Wyckoff and transpose his teachings on the stages of the accumulation phase, we get quite a convincing outlook to the upside.
It could all be down to the fact that we see what we want to see, or it could be a run on the banks to the crypto-sphere.
EURUSD ShortCurrently short on EU
Reasons:
- Downwards trend
- COT traders overwhelmingly bearish on EUR
- Political instability in Europe
- Bad economic news in Europe
- ECB president "highlighted that euro area economic growth is expected to weaken in the coming months"
- US expected to also cut rates, but looks a lot stronger economically compared to most of the world right now
$RESPPANWW Fed Balance Sheet at 2020 Level Before QEVery interesting chart to watch here FRED:RESPPANWW
Clearly shows we're still in QT, but obviously markets have been pumping.
The Fed balance sheet is sitting at $6.9T which is the level in 2020 when the Fed continued its 2nd round of QE.
I doubt they would announce they are buying assets again at the next FOMC on 12/17, but quite possibly at the January or March 2025 meeting after Trump takes office.
Are we waiting for #FOMO in #SPX to spark Fomo in #BITCOINSeems, clear to me the obvious answer is YES!
So let's cheer on #STONKS cracking 5,000 on the #S&P
As we would likely see risk be fully turned on, and cash to flow into the #Crypto space.
FWIW
I think the #Economy stinks
but that doesn't necessarily mean assets can't go up in number.
There are plenty of examples where this is the case.
Argentina. Turkey and so on.
#BLOWOFFTOP scenario is still in play.
XAGUSD - Silver will stabilize above $30?!Silver is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term ascending channel. If the decline continues, we can see the demand zones and buy within that zones with the appropriate risk reward.
The first range is suitable for short-term transactions and the second range is suitable for medium-term transactions.
Peter Krauth, author of The Great Silver Bull and publisher of SilverStockInvestor, has stated that silver could achieve substantial gains during a rate-cutting cycle, with advancements in artificial intelligence potentially emerging as a new driver of demand. Krauth examined the silver market and investment opportunities for 2025, highlighting the significant impact of Federal Reserve rate cuts on silver prices, a point supported by historical data.
He explained, “In the last three rate-cutting cycles, if you look at silver prices from trough to peak, silver has, on average, risen by 332%.” Krauth added, “This process might take about one to two years, but it still offers remarkable returns, doesn’t it? You can review the data—this is how silver has historically performed.”
He further noted that if the U.S. economy enters a recession—an outcome many analysts forecast for the first half of 2025—silver could deliver outstanding performance.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, has outlined extensive plans to reshape the nation’s energy policies. According to news sources, Trump intends to request funding from Congress to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. His transition team is preparing a comprehensive energy policy agenda to be implemented shortly after he assumes office.
Trump also aims to repeal President Biden’s clean energy initiatives and prioritize natural gas. He may condition U.S. financial support for the International Energy Agency (IEA) on its refocusing towards oil and gas while countering its emphasis on green energy.
At the same time, analysts at Deutsche Bank have expressed concerns that the Federal Reserve might cancel its anticipated December rate cut. These concerns stem from stronger-than-expected economic resilience, a stable labor market, and persistent inflation above 2.5%.
Although the analysts still forecast a rate cut in December, the risk of a delay has increased. They predict that the federal funds rate will reach 4.375% by the end of 2025, exceeding the estimated neutral range. This suggests that the Fed may maintain higher rates for an extended period.
Furthermore, Deutsche Bank expects the Federal Reserve to lower rates to a neutral range of 3.75-4.00% in 2026 and 2027, as the impact of tariffs is likely to gradually reduce private domestic demand, creating room for more rate cuts in the long term.
XAGUSD - Silver will continue to rise?!Silver is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. If the decline continues due to the current economic data, we can see demand zone and buy within that zone with a suitable risk reward. If the upward trend line is broken and the $30 range is maintained, we can see the continuation of the rise up to the level of $32.
Over the past year, silver struggled to keep pace with gold, as gold reached multiple record highs while silver remained below $30 an ounce for a prolonged period. However, according to one analyst, this trend may shift in 2025, with the gold-to-silver ratio expected to moderate from its recent highs.
Julian Wee, a market strategist at UBS, commented, “Gold remains a favored asset for portfolio risk hedging against various risks, but the shift from a ‘soft landing’ to ‘no landing’ argues for a balance between a defensive stance and exposure to economic growth. Silver, which has historically shown a high correlation with gold, may benefit more from increased industrial demand.”
Wee highlighted that amid rising geopolitical tensions, gold has emerged as a preferred hedge. He noted that gold “has risen 35% this year alone, and demand has remained strong amid numerous risk events and declining global interest rates. At least for this month, gold has asserted itself as a hedge against slower economic growth and rising inflation.”
He further remarked that silver, like gold, also exhibits an inverse relationship to risk aversion, thus serving a similar defensive role. “Amid resilient U.S. GDP growth, investors may find it beneficial to add to portfolios that maintain a strong defensive stance while gradually enhancing exposure to stronger economic growth,” he suggested.
According to Wee, silver is expected to see increased demand due to its widespread use in sectors like technology and electric vehicles, as well as in LED production, solar panels, and medical applications owing to its antibacterial properties. Industrial demand will likely lead to higher demand for physically-backed ETFs. On the supply side, mine production is anticipated to remain limited in 2025.
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, discussed various factors affecting productivity growth, including the rise of new businesses and workforce mobility. He also noted that automation has contributed to productivity improvements.
Powell emphasized that the current monetary policy is restrictive, though the exact degree remains uncertain. He stated that the Federal Reserve has begun the process of rate reductions and is moving towards a neutral rate, underscoring the need for a gradual and careful approach.
Powell suggested that slowing the pace of rate cuts could be appropriate if data permits. He mentioned that the current monetary policy is well-positioned, providing space for rate reductions if needed, though a careful approach remains necessary. Powell also referred to the recent Producer Price Index (PPI) reading, which showed a slight increase, but he believes the inflation trajectory remains on the right path. He stressed that monetary policy should neither be overly restrictive nor overly lenient.
$USINTR -Feds Cuts RatesECONOMICS:USINTR
(November/2024)
source: Federal Reserve
-The Fed lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75% at its November 2024 meeting, following a jumbo 50 basis point cut in September, in line with expectations.
Policymakers reiterated their previous message that they will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to borrowing costs.
On the economic front, the Fed noted that recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace.
Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
Inflation has made progress toward the 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
However, officials removed a reference they had “gained greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward the target.
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 11/7/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQZ2024
- PR High: 20923.50
- PR Low: 20889.00
- NZ Spread: 77.0
Key scheduled economic events
08:30 | Initial Jobless Claims
13:00 | Fed Interest Rate Decision
14:00 | FOMC Statement
14:30 | FOMC Press Conference
AMP Futures increased margin requirements overnight
- Broke above 20800 daily pivot
- Continuing to auction above previous session high
Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 11/7)
- Weekend Gap: -0.13 (filled)
- Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 310.36
- Volume: 24K
- Open Int: 262K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -1.3% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 20954
- Mid: 19814
- Short: 17533
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
NZDUSD Daily Analysis: Anticipating a Slightly Bullish Bias.Introduction
Today, we focus on the NZDUSD pair, assessing if a slightly bullish bias is likely. Amid evolving fundamental factors and current market sentiment, the New Zealand Dollar to US Dollar (NZDUSD) may see subtle upward momentum, depending on several key drivers. Let’s explore these influences in more detail to help traders make informed decisions.
1. Recent NZ Economic Indicators
New Zealand's recent economic data shows a stable but cautious outlook, with moderate improvements in employment and inflation metrics. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a wait-and-see approach, prioritizing inflation control without aggressively tightening interest rates. Recent improvements in inflation data may continue to support the NZD, as stable inflation signals robust economic activity without undue financial strain. These trends encourage moderate investment inflows into New Zealand, providing slight upward pressure on the NZD.
2. Federal Reserve and US Economic Data
The US Federal Reserve’s recent signals suggest the potential for a pause in rate hikes. This dovish stance supports risk sentiment, favoring currencies like the NZD. If the Fed emphasizes an inflation-fighting stance with a cautious approach, risk sentiment could rise, supporting a slightly bullish bias for NZDUSD. Additionally, softer-than-expected US economic data may weigh on the USD, creating room for the NZD to gain traction.
3. Commodity Prices and Global Trade Dynamics
New Zealand's economy is heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly dairy and agricultural exports. A recent uptick in global dairy prices is favorable for the NZD, as higher export revenues strengthen New Zealand’s trade balance and overall economic resilience. Improved trade relations between China and New Zealand may also bolster investor confidence in the NZD, as China is a major trade partner. Positive developments here could add to NZD strength against the USD.
4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
Global risk sentiment plays a critical role in shaping the NZDUSD pair’s direction. The NZD often benefits in risk-on environments due to its status as a high-beta currency. Currently, with geopolitical uncertainties relatively controlled and a more stable global economic backdrop, risk appetite may support NZDUSD gains. If investors remain optimistic about global growth, the NZD’s appeal increases, leaning the bias towards a slight bullish trend.
Conclusion
In summary, the NZDUSD pair could exhibit a slightly bullish bias today, driven by favorable domestic economic indicators, the US Fed’s dovish stance, rising commodity prices, and stable market sentiment. This anticipated trend is subject to fluctuations, and traders are advised to keep a close eye on US data releases and global risk dynamics.
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