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AUD/USD might fall significantly to 2020 loweAustralian inflation surpassed estimates in the third quarter, reaching a 32-year high, and the Reserve Bank is expected to raise interest rates again to battle inflationary pressures. Rising rent and fuel prices were the primary causes of the reading being higher than expected, as Australia grappled with high borrowing rates and rising commodity prices. Food costs rose dramatically throughout the quarter due to a mix of supply chain issues and harvest-related adverse weather. According to the bank, it's trying to find a balance between limiting the negative consequences of high interest rates on the economy and controlling inflation. It hiked rates seven times this year from record lows and declared that future rate hikes will be data-driven. The pressure on AUD/USD is expected to continue. In light of this, Credit Suisse economists predict that the pair may plunge to a 2020 low of 0.5506. A steeper decrease in the AUD/USD exchange rate is anticipated. We anticipate a decline to the bottom from April 2020 at 0.6041/5978 and the 78.6% retracement of the 2020/21 upswing as long as medium-term momentum continues to be bearish. While another little halt is possible, a convincing break lower would increase the likelihood of a fall all the way to 0.5506, the 2020 bottom. "Any effort at a stronger move higher should be restrained at the sliding 55-day average of 0.6651."
Short
by TradeyMarkets
The Fed expected to ease rate hikes as the economy slowsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Upon a series of US economic data failing to meet their estimates, the market now believes the Federal Reserve is bound to be less aggressive in next week’s interest rate announcement. The news has weakened the greenback against its peers, USD/CAD plunged to 1.3606, and USD/JPY declined to 147.91. EUR/USD closed higher at 0.9964, edging closer back to parity. GBP/USD rose and stabilized at 1.1467, almost gaining 200 pips. Although Australia’s inflation problem is less severe than other major countries, it recorded a 1.8% increase in the price level - higher than the projected 1.6%, while AUD/USD rose to 0.6394. Despite the API Weekly Crude Oil Inventory having increased by 4.5 million barrels, WTI crude futures only had minor gains, as it briefly went to $85.89 and closed at $85.32 barrel. Gold price rose to a high of $1,660.47 an ounce and retreated to $1,653.22.
by Mitrade_official
Pound slides on Truss resignation falloutThe British pound is showing strong volatility in the wake of Prime Minister's Truss resignation. Truss resigned on Thursday after just 44 days in office, and the pound jumped as much as 1% before paring most of the gains. The reality of the political maelstrom engulfing the UK has set in and GBP/USD has plunged 1.1% today. The currency has touched a low of 1.1100, its lowest level since October 13th. The deep political crisis in the UK has seen two prime ministers resign in just two months and leaves the Conservatives in turmoil. The Conservatives will elect a new leader next week and fortunately for them, they do not need to call an election for two more years. Still, Truss's brief period as prime minister has caused political and financial chaos, and the new leader will have their work cut out to establish some semblance of normality for the country after the circus over the past few weeks. The Bank of England meets on November 3rd and with inflation climbing back into double digits, the Bank has little choice but to continue delivering oversize rates. Policy makers will likely be deliberating between a 0.75% and a full-point hike, which could give the beleaguered pound a much-needed boost. The Federal Reserve has signalled that it plans to remain aggressive, as priority number one remains the fight against soaring inflation. This hawkish position was outlined by Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker on Thursday. Harker was blunt, saying that the Fed's rate hikes had failed to curb inflation and that rates would continue to rise "for a while". He added that rates would be "well above" 4% by the end of the year. Currently, the benchmark is at 3.25%, with the Fed holding its next meeting on November 2nd. The markets have received the message loud and clear, pricing in two more 0.75% increases in November and December. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1254. Above, there is resistance at 1.1399 There is support at 1.1162 and 1.1085
by OANDA
1
US 10 Year Treasury Yield: What's Next?Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1M Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It is currently headed to the top trendline of the channel with a possibility to break in the coming months. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges. 4) This may fall in line with the US Dollar strengthening (in the idea section below). 5) If US 10 Year Treasury Yield goes lower, there is not much more room for it to get to 0. What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
17
XAUUSD Bearish biasHello dear traders, I think gold will continue forming lower lows on its way to the weekly demand zone of 1590-1570 area. I have draw paths of possible impulse as break and retest areas. For bullish reversal, I want to see a clear break of 1660 zone with price action retest. Dollar is getting stronger and stronger with this solid and aggressive FED policy and the continuous rising yields. However, the global economy is not at the normal levels, so this USD strength might get exhausted after December. You can share your ideas on the comments!!! Good luck!
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by The_Forex_Path
2
AUD/USD eyes job dataAUD/USD is considerably lower today, trading at 0.6273, down 0.57%. Australia releases employment data on Thursday, with the markets expecting that the report will show that the labour market remains robust. The economy is forecast to have created 25,000 jobs in September, following the 35,000 gain in August. Unemployment is expected to remain at 3.5%. The strong labour market has enabled the RBA to continue its sharp rate-tightening cycle, with the cash rate currently at 2.60%. The central bank plans to continue raising rates, as the focus is on curbing inflation, which came in at 6.8% in August. The October inflation report will be especially significant, as it will be released just days before the RBA meeting on November 1st (in addition to the quarterly CPI report, Australia has started releasing a monthly inflation release, but it covers only 70% of goods and services). Higher rates will curb inflation eventually, but the cost could be an economic recession. Already, households are straining their budgets as inflation remains red-hot and higher interest rates are increasing borrowing repayments. This will likely dampen consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. The Australian dollar has hit hard times. Since August 1st, AUD/USD has plunged 550 points, as risk sentiment has taken a beating and the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening has boosted the US dollar. China's economy has been struggling and the escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with no end in sight, has sapped the appetite for risk-related currencies like the Australian dollar. With the Fed likely to deliver more oversize rate hikes and China and Ukraine likely to remain hotspots, the outlook does not look bright for the Aussie. AUD/USD faces resistance at 0.6331 and 0.6460 0.6250 is under pressure in support. Below, there is support at 0.6121
by OANDA
USDJPY SellDear Traders, Many of us have been stopped by the strong uptrend of UJ. This is a counter trend idea. The Red area is Monthly Supply Zone since years ago. The fact that the prace is barely above in the 4H doesn't mean that it is now a demand zone. It has to be tested multiple times in order to be categorised as support. The pair needs breath to be corrected and the market cycles indicates overbought conditions with TDI giving us bearish divergence comparing to Price action. Maybe the big players are getting ready to close their profits. So, I count on a nice pullback with 4 potential profit levels. Good luck!
Short
by The_Forex_Path
1
BLK: Outflows will hurt?BLACKROCK Short Term - We look to Sell at 602.67 (stop at 646.89) The primary trend remains bearish. Sentiment remains negative despite the pull-back higher in prices. Previous support at 610.00 now becomes resistance. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 505.63 and 470.00 Resistance: 610.00 / 760.00 / 900.00 Support: 505.00 / 450.00 / 350.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:BLKShort
by VantageMarkets
Inflation not going to slow down for the US until 2028In the short term - like today! 8:30 EST 13 Oct 2022 If the CPI (measures inflation) comes out at above 8.2% this could lead to a market crash as the Fed would likely raise interest rates by another 100 bps on 2 November to curb inflation. If the CPI comes out below 8.2 this could spark a market rally as they will believe inflation is starting to cool down. In the long term. Price broke out of the W Formation and is showing major upside to come for Inflation. This could go on until 2028... If this happens, there is a potential Depression that could kick in world wide. This depression would then last for another 10 - 20 years (if they can get it under control). We need a government and quantitative reset... Sorry for the doom and gloom but it's not looking good technically.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by Timonrosso
USDCAD: Buy dips!USDCAD Intraday - We look to Buy at 1.3750 (stop at 1.3690) Previous support located at 1.3800. Previous resistance located at 1.3850. Indecisive price action has resulted in sideways congestion on the intraday chart. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. Our profit targets will be 1.3870 and 1.3900 Resistance: 1.3850 / 1.3870 / 1.3900 Support: 1.3800 / 1.3750 / 1.3700 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Long
by VantageMarkets
1
The Fed is likely to increase interest rates furtherEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve reiterate the general directions for the central bank would be more rate hikes, allowing USD/CAD to close at 1.3814 after considerable oscillations, USD/JPY also reached a 24-year high at 146.91. Later tonight, year-on-year US CPI figures are expected to run hot at 8.1% - though lower than 8.3% last month. EUR/USD was last traded at 0.9704, recording minimal growth. The market awaits the German CPI tonight, forecasts estimate a steady 10% rise in September. Although the year-on-year UK GDP has contracted from 2.4% to 2.0%, GBP/USD still rose above the 1.110 level and closed at 1.1103. AUD/USD traded marginally higher at 0.6276. The gold price gradually increased to $1,673.26 an ounce. Struck by recession fears, WTI oil futures fell further to $87.27 a barrel.
by Mitrade_official
8892 on Nasdaq is imminent. It’s again quite simple. 8892 is only 10% lower from here. That’s just still not enough PE compression. We are still up 525% since January 2010. That’s ridiculous. Purely liquidity melt-up not based on any fundamentals. Earnings were also a garage.. If you know this now you’ll take the red pill and understand how Marcus will work going forward and how they always should have worked. Not 0% rates and unlimited quantitive, easing or QE . QT will be massive and constant for years. With rate hikes for foreseeable future. Period. At best. $200 a share for the S&P. Morgan Stanley had it at $190 a share. $200 a share X 14X equals 2800. Now that’s at best. On Nasdaq. Ultimately. After this failed 15 year fed experiment. And PPI sand CPI much higher than anything reported tomorrow or anytime, this will be an extremely deep recession. And 15-20% chance of a depression. Fed funds rate must be above the CPI rate. This is economics 101. Terminal rate will be north of 7%. Not 4%. The Fed will not stop. No matter what, so follow these “God Fibonacci levels” to the tee. Because the market probably has 20% more to fall at a minimum. And then you can talk about at least being somewhat close to properly priced. Everything is overvalued, especially the NASDAQ, which is the worst and S&P. be smart. Energy. Some healthcare, And qqq puts and spy puts. Nov/December time frame. Very important to have a good amount of QQQ and SPY puts. This is what the revenues are made. To hedge your portfolio and gain from times once in every hundred years a lottery ticket. Watch implied Vol. so you don’t over pay. And for godsakes, SELL EVERY SINGLE RALLY WITHOUT HESITATION. EVERY RALLY. Good luck
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by Section3133
4
SPX Bias is BearishBias: Bearish *My bias criteria doesn’t necessarily indicate a directional position - it is based on technical criteria at the close of each trading session. In my opinion, it is time for the broader markets to start accumulating assets / equities. I think it’s time for investors and traders to FIGHT THE FED. The Fed has been wrong for two years, yet the financial markets and economy are putting the ‘trust’ in The Fed that they all of a sudden get it right. We have an insufficient regulator of the Financial System; therefore, a potential risk for Substantial Financial Breakage. We keep hearing The Fed say, “We have many tools, etc.” and yet those same tools were unable to control inflation at 2%; whereas, they allowed it to run rapidly over 8%. The Fed is fighting lagging and backwards data with raising interest rates, of which, take time to impact the U.S. Economy. SPX Upward Levels: 3,719.23 3,699.86 3,679.60 Downward Levels: 3,636.71 3,615.74 3,558.58
SP:SPX
by bsdvs23