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Fed decisions boost the USD trendThe Fed raised its funds rate by 75 basis point to a target range of 3.00% - 3.25%, its highest since 2008. DXY remains bullish, even technically, supported by a rising trendline, 20 and 50 SMA on D1. Even if the RSI starts showing overbought signal with bearish divergence, and Bollinger bands upper limit reached, it isn't in this case a sell signal: strong momentum brings traders into this trap. Wait for RSI to cross below the 14 SMA as described on the chart to start looking for a correction. Measuring the corrections shows us strength recently in the momentum ( smaller corrective waves ). Measuring the impulsive wave shows us that the uptrend hasn't reached yet it's logical goal. With the good news on the USD, the index can reach the 114 level. Goodluck, Joe.
TVC:DXYLong
by joe-abdallah
KIWI ON SALE!Like I previously mentioned in my other published idea title BOLD GOLD, because of the hawkish fed and raising inflation The USD is stronger than most if not all G7 currencies. As a result commodities & commodity currencies across the board is selling off such as the NZD & AUD, they may be the weakest currencies crossed w the USD. Last week I sold this pair at 0.61875 and took profit at 0.59986 a -3.05% move (-189 pips).This week I reopened a sell position w some of the profits from the trade I closed out last week at 0.60697 and at the present moment market is down -1.24% (-75 pips). My current take profit is 0.58793 ( -190 pips) but the market can definitely pull lower if the USD strength persist as I suspect it will, at least until the next rate decision on the 22nd of this month. If or when NZDUSD breaks & close below the 4 month trend line found on the D1 I can definitely see this pair heading towards 0.57000 a -4.8% (-287 pips) move from market current price. Lastly, in less than 1 hour the USD PPI YOY & PPI ex Food & Energy numbers will be released , the consensus is 8.8% & 7.1% respectively, a surprise higher than a expected number could fuel another USD rally, a lower than expected number can cause a temporary retest. Let me know your thoughts in the comments.
Short
by xavierNF
4
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report – FOMC This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price. For this FOMC KOG Report we’re going to reference the KOG Report shared on Sunday where we said we would be looking for some form of relief rally in Gold. We suggested earlier in the month that we could potentially see this rally happening at some point during the last week of September, so for that reason we will be looking at the lower levels to go long. We have targets below which we would like to see completed before the move to the upside, what we want to see though is how the price reacts to these levels and where it creates its base. Our daily is already showing some bullish signs, however, the weekly is suggesting some more movement down is possible. A lot of traders will be sitting long here at the 200MA so a sweep of liquidity on the lows is very possible. For the reasons above, we’ll again be looking at the extreme levels to take entries with a plan to take this up towards the 1700+ price regions. Illustrated on the chart are the key support and resistance levels we feel they can tap into before swinging the move in the opposite direction! The first level we’re looking at is just below the 1650 psychological level where if we see a strong support we feel there will be an opportunity to take the long trade back up towards the 1680-95 price points. We’re going to keep it simple for this report as our plans are on the KOG reports and nothing has really changed, apart from the ranging price action that we’re witnessing pre-event. Its also possible that the market has priced in this release, in which case we will continue as we are. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
16
Japanese yen steady ahead of Fed, BoJUSD/JPY continues to show limited movement this week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.10, up 0.27%. The Japanese yen has depreciated by over 20% this year, and the yen's slide will be high on the agenda at the Bank of Japan's meeting on Thursday. We could see some strong rhetoric expressing deep concern about the yen, but the central bank has stayed on the sidelines during the yen's long slide and I don't expect that to change. The BoJ is committed to its ultra-accommodative policy, in order to boost Japan's weak economy. Inflation has been rising, but Governor Kuroda has said he won't tighten policy until it's clear that inflation is sustainable, which would mean solid wage growth. There have been some rumblings about currency intervention by Tokyo, and the yen received a short boost in the arm earlier in September, after a report that the BoJ had conducted a rate check, which could have been a prelude to intervention. Japan hasn't taken such a drastic move since 2011 and would require the consent of the G-20 to do so. As part of its loose policy, the BOJ has been very firm with its yield curve control, and the yen has borne the brunt of this policy, as the US/Japan rate differential continues to widen. With the Federal Reserve poised to raise rates by 75 or even 100 basis points later today, the outlook for the yen appears grim. The markets are anxiously awaiting the Fed's rate announcement, as well as the Fed's quarterly economic forecast. This will include projections for unemployment, inflation and interest rate levels. If Fed Chair Powell's message is 'higher for longer' with regard to rate levels, investors could respond by sending the US dollar higher. There is resistance at 144.71 and 146.49 USD/JPY has support at 143.19, followed by 141.88
by OANDA
Australian dollar extends lossesThe Australian dollar has edged lower today. Earlier, AUD/USD dropped to 0.6654, its lowest level since May 2020. Risk sentiment has soured after Russia announced that it is moving quickly to annex territories that it has captured in Ukraine. European leaders quickly denounced the move as a "sham". An annexation would seriously escalate the conflict in Ukraine, as Russia could argue that any fighting in the annexed territory was an attack on sovereign Russian land. President Putin also ordered the mobilization of 300,000 reservists, an indication of how badly the campaign is going for Moscow. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve which wraps up its policy meeting later today. The Fed is expected to hike by 0.75%, which would bring the benchmark rate to 3.25%. This move would be significant as rates would move above the neutral rate level of 2.5%, into restrictive territory. There is an outside chance that the Fed will raise rates by a full point, which would unnerve the markets and likely send the US dollar sharply higher. Aside from the rate hike, investors will be keenly monitoring the Fed's latest quarterly forecasts for the economy. This will include projections for unemployment and interest rate levels. The Fed is expected to remain hawkish and argue that the price of higher unemployment and a further rise in rates is the painful but necessary price to rein in inflation. The RBA minutes of the September meeting didn't contain any surprises. The minutes reiterated the message that further rate hikes are coming, but the size of the hikes will be data-dependent. At the meeting, members argued over whether to raise rates by 25bp or 50bp - in the end, the Bank went for the latter option, bringing the cash rate to 2.35%. With no inflation or employment data prior to the October meeting, RBA members may again be split over how much to tighten. This should make for an interesting meeting that could trigger volatility from the Australian dollar. AUD/USD has support at 0.6623 and 0.6523 There is resistance at 0.6769 and 0.6869
by OANDA
US Federal Funds Rate Prep (DXY)With the Fed Reserve expected to hike rates by 75bps tonight, the common question is "what would happen to the DXY". Typically, because the Fed Reserve communicates the expected hike, this leads to a priced-in scenario. The previous 4 rate hikes... 16 March, 25bps hike as expected. 4th May, 50bps hike as expected. 15th June, 75bps hike (expected 50bps). 27th July, 75bps hike as expected. Generally, the price trades lower following the release of the news, only to trade higher again several days after. Could this be the case again for the upcoming releases? Maybe the DXY could retest the support level of 109 before trading higher again towards the 112.50 resistance level.
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
EURUSD before FED Like we said already, today is FED Interest Rate decision. This will definitely cause some moves. Here's what you need to look for before you enter a trade. Direction : there is a higher probability for a strong USD, therefore we should see a new low on EURUSD. However, we should not sell right now! Levels: The support levels are 0,9878, followed by 0,9800 and in case of a breakout then 0,9685 will be next. Entry: There are a few ways to enter but the best one would be if we see a rejection wick above the previous highs. That wick should have formed after the news. You need those 3 things before every trade. Everything else is money management and confidence (psychology) in your position. In case of an upside move then we are not looking to enter a trade today!
Short
by ForexTrendline
1
Market braces for more record-high US and UK rate hikesEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 The dollar renewed its strength against other major currencies, as the Federal Reserve interest rate decision edges closer. The market expects a 75 to 100 bps rate hike, while the Bank of England also had a projected 75 bps interest rate increase - a high in over three decades. Thus, EUR/USD slumped below parity again, closing at 0.997, and GBP/USD to 1.1379. A mixed bag of housing market data did not deter the dollar train, USD/CAD climbed and slowed, finally reaching a closing price of 1.3362, gaining over 100 pips in the process. The AUD/USD pair recorded a modest loss, due to declining oil and gold prices. The yellow metal was overshadowed by the prospect of an even stronger US dollar, gold futures went down by $7 to $1,671.1 an ounce. Oil prices went bearish as investors anticipated the US crude oil inventories to increase by 2.1 million barrels, last traded at $83.94 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
AUD/USD dips after RBA minutesThe Australian dollar is in negative territory today. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6706, down 0.30% on the day. The RBA minutes of the September 6th meeting didn't shed any new light on the central bank's rate policy, and the Australian dollar's response has been muted. The minutes reiterated the message that the markets have already heard from Governor Lowe - additional rate hikes are coming, but the size of the hikes will depend on inflation and growth. The minutes noted that rates are approaching "normal settings". At the meeting, members argued over whether to raise rates by 25bp or 50bp - in the end, the Bank went for the latter option, bringing the cash rate to 2.35%. With no inflation or employment data prior to the October meeting, the RBA may still be up in the air with regard to the size of the rate hike right up to decision time. This will make for an interesting meeting which could trigger volatility from the Australian dollar. There are arguments to be made on both sides. Inflation rose to 6.1% in the second quarter, and as the RBA's number one priority, Lowe may want to keep the pedal on the floor until there are clear signs that inflation is moving lower. On the other hand, inflation expectations have slowed over three straight months, a possible indication that inflation may have peaked or will do so shortly. Lowe would very much like to guide the economy to a soft landing, which would be facilitated by a modest 0.25% hike. The Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday, with the markets expecting a 0.75% hike. There is about a 20% chance of a massive full-point hike. The markets will be listening carefully to the Fed's guidance - if it is hawkish, the US dollar should respond with broad gains. AUD/USD has support at 0.6623 and 0.6523 There is resistance at 0.6769 and 0.6869
by OANDA
Is the GBP on the edge of a cliff?As the British Pound approaches a major support level of 1.4000, we think it is akin to peering over the edge of a cliff. With one of the worst headline inflation rates in the developed markets, crippling energy bills, and a newly elected government, the Bank of England (BOE) is in a place few would want to be in. As the next policy meeting date nears, the central bank is likely to raise rates. But by how much? Too little, and inflation will remain a key issue weighing on the currency’s attractiveness compared to the USD. Too much, and consumers will be crushed with the already astronomical energy bills and rising loan re-payment, likely pushing the UK further into stagflation, something that central banks try to avoid. Either way, pound traders are likely to be disappointed. And we have not even begun to mention the effects the energy bill cap might have on longer-run inflation. The technical setup proves more interesting as the current price lies right on the 1.4000 level, a major support level, only ever breached once in 1984 and retested once in 2020. We think a clear break of this will likely lead the pound to fall harder as traders ride the downward momentum. On a shorter timeframe, the pair is arguably trading in a descending channel. As current prices teeter on the lower channel band, a breakout at the downside could spell trouble, sending the pair lower. There seems to be little in the way to slow the move lower for the GBPUSD pair as both macro headwinds and technical ones beat down the Pound lower against the USD. With the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 21st and Bank of England meeting on the 22nd of September, we expect higher volatility over the next few days, a snap lower could drive momentum traders to further extend the downside move. Entry at 1.1450, stop at 1.17400. Target at 1.08000 and 1.06150. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME:6B1!Short
by inspirante
20
$BTC - O -$BTC Hello my Fellow TraderZ, We are now coming into the most awaited week where we have FED Rate Hike announcement on SEPT 20/21. So as usual US Equity Markets is reacting to the probable Hawkish action of FED, followed by #CRYPTO as well. Many of us are expecting the rate hike to be between 0.75bps and 1bps. If we see 0.75bps, it is good and more so like #BITCOIN is pricing in by testing the June lows. Incase we see 1bps, this is a disater then and most probably #BTC would stop at 14k. But here what I see on DTF is that #BITCOIN is coming to support and probably in the making of DOUBLE BOTTOM pattern which is coupling with the BULLISH DIVERGENCE. Still hoping for the best. Be cautious and Trade well my Fam. CHEERS!!!
by TRADER-GOKU
US stocks plunge further ahead of Fed rate decisionEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 As the market awaits the latest interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve, the stock market returned its gains last Thursday. S&P 500 fell to 3,873.33 with a 0.72% loss, whereas Nasdaq 100 dipped to 11,861.38 and Dow Jones to 30,822.42, a foreboding report from FedEx ultimately sees its stock prices going down by a staggering 21.40% to 161.02. The Euro / Dollar currency pair ended the week by returning firmly above parity, slowly climbing to 1.0015 with minor gains. GBP/USD slightly decline to 1.1412, recovering from a low of 1.1370. AUD/USD traded higher at 0.672 after considerable fluctuations, as the meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will be available tomorrow. The inflation data for Canada is also to be released on Tuesday, USD/CAD rose to 1.326 with a high of 1.3307. Gold futures surged to $1,687.1, then closed at $1,683.5 an ounce. Despite the major Chinese city of Chengdu having lifted its lockdown measures, WTI crude futures decreased to $84.76 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Master of MarketsIn 2008 the U.S. central bank purchased  $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities $200 billion in agency debt $300 billion in long-term Treasury securities 2008 was named QE1 and would continue for the next 6 years before the FED paused and eventually began to tighten. During times of QE, banks, companies, markets all perform great. There is plenty of liquidity to operate, margin is cheap. When the fed tightens, markets get volatile. Margin becomes expensive. Most companies will survive this volatility. They just pass the cost on to the consumer. This creates inflation. Sticky inflation. Fed has to tighten more to fight inflation. At this point it’s all they can do. But they risk crashing the markets. The fed controls just how much air is let out and how fast. That’s why you saw Jay Powell start with easing, into light QT and now in September the amounts they will be selling are very likely to put more down pressure on the markets. Just realize the FED can manage the market pressure, it’s the unexpected events during times of low liquidity and high volatility that concerns me. See the effects of Net liquidity on VIX over the past 15 years. Never reaching above 30 except during extreme events like the flash crash and china crash.. You can see we’re in a time of extreme volatility as clusters of volatility reaching over 30 4 times since Nov 2021. What is Net liquidity? Net liquidity is a formula I found on Fintwit that is supposed to predict the markets movements 2 weeks in advance. I don’t know if I believe that, but I did some Covariance analysis and there are certainly times during QE with high bullish correlation and QT there is high bearish correlations. To determine Net Liquidity you need to take The total assets of the Federal Reserve Balance sheet at 8.8 Trillion. Subtract The Treasury General Account at 617 Billion Then Subtract the 2.1T Overnight Reverse Repo You get 5.9 Trillion in Net Liquidity. Changes in the level of Net Liquidity (step up or step down) are claimed to predict the S&P 500 direction 2 weeks in advance. The claim is that of a 95% correlation since the transitory quantitive easing and reverse repo were implemented. I was curious to see if the claims were true. More on that tomorrow.
FRED:RESPPANWW
by SPYvsGME
7
$DYDX - BULLISH DIVERGENCEHello my Fellow TraderZ, Today we'll be talking about $DYDX. We all know #DYDX is a Decentralized Exchange's native token. One of my favorites for the long term portfolio. Here we see that in the recent pump price got rejected by the High Confluence Zone(containing TL1 + DESCENDING CHANNEL TL + HORIZONTAL RESISTANCE) and now back to its SUPPORT once again. Clearly a BULLISH DIVERGENCE on 4HTF is easily visible and I personally very excited to take this Trade. Ofcourse we should not overlook #BTC as it is heavily co-related to SPX500 which is itself in bearish pressure due to FED's Hawkish Rate Hikes. But still keep $DYDX in eye .
Long
by TRADER-GOKU
Japanese yen - calm before the storm?After some mid-week volatility, USD/JPY has settled down. In the European session, the yen is trading quietly at 143.59. For anyone following the Japanese yen, next week promises to be interesting, at the very least. The Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on September 21st, with the Bank of Japan officials meeting the next day. The Japanese yen continues to lose ground against the dollar, and fell to 144.99 earlier this month, a new 24-year low. Japanese officials have responded with well-worn rhetoric about how Tokyo is concerned about the yen's depreciation and warning that all options are on the table. We've heard this all before, but is this time different? Is Japan seriously contemplating a currency intervention to prop up the ailing yen? There has been some speculation that 145 could be a line in the sand for the MOF, but in fairness, there was similar talk when yen hit 130 and then 135, and the MOF and BoJ stayed on the sidelines. The likelihood is that Tokyo will avoid such a dramatic move, which last occurred in 2011. The Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Bank of Japan are not happy with the rapid descent of the yen, but an intervention would require the consent of the G-20, which is unlikely to give its consent. The BoJ made waves this week after a report that it had conducted a rate check, which was viewed as a possible prelude to an intervention. Finance Minister Suzuki has been coy about what moves he might make, and refused to comment on whether the BoJ had made a rate check. The BoJ has rigidly maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy in order to stimulate Japan's fragile economy. As part of this policy, the BoJ has kept a firm hand on its yield curve control, and the price for this stance has been a freefall in the yen, which is done an astounding 30% against the dollar this year. With the Fed looking to hike next week by 75 basis point, and an outside chance of a massive full-point increase, the yen's downtrend is likely to continue, barring a spectacular response from Japanese officials. 1.4363 is the next line of resistance, followed by 144.81 USD/JPY has support at 142.56, followed by 141.88
by OANDA
1
GBP/USD dips on strong US data, UK GDP nextThe British pound is in negative territory today and has fallen below the 1.15 line. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1497, down 0.38%. US retail sales rose 0.3% MoM in August, rebounding from -0.4% in July. Excluding gasoline, retail sales were up 0.8%, as consumers responded to lower gas prices by increasing spending on other items. The data indicates that consumer spending is holding up, despite an inflation rate of 8.3%. There was more positive news as US initial job claims fell for a fifth consecutive week, falling to 213 thousand. This follows the previous release of 218 thousand and beat the consensus of 226 thousand. These releases are especially significant, as the Federal Reserve relies on a strong labour market and solid consumer spending in order to remain aggressive with its hawkish policy as its grapples with high inflation. The Fed is expected to increase rates by 75 basis points next week, with an outside chance of a massive 100bp hike. Inflation has proved to be more resilient than expected, and with the Fed continuing its steep rate-hike cycle, we may see more demand destruction which raises the likelihood of a recession. The UK wraps up a busy week with retail sales on Friday. Consumers have been hammered by the cost-of-living crisis and predictably are cutting back on spending, which will only exacerbate the grim economic landscape. Retail sales fell by 3.0% YoY in July, and the markets are bracing for an even worse month of August, with an estimate of -3.4%. A release of -3.0% or worse could extend the British pound's losses. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.1548. Next, there is resistance at 1.1689 There is support at 1.1417 and 1.1306
by OANDA