Fed hints at slowing down after a 75 bps rate hikeEUR/USD 🔼
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Earlier today, the Federal Reserve continued its path of aggressive rate hikes by increasing it by 75 basis points to 2.50%. Meanwhile, Chairman Powell claimed it would be appropriate to slow down the tightening eventually, providing some breathing space for other major currencies, USD/CAD dropped from 1.2895 to 1.2821.
Regarding concerns over a recession, the US GDP data for the second quarter will be available tonight, and the market estimated a 0.5% growth - which could avoid meeting the technical definition of a recession.
As the dollar retreated, the British Pound became the bigger winner, GBP/USD rose and stabilized at the 1.2170 level, gaining over 130 pips to close at 1.2151, and the EUR/USD also maintained a foothold at the 1.0200 level before closing at 1.0202. Australia’s Retail Sales reading in June missed market projections at 0.2%, but AUD/USD nonetheless reached 0.6993, edging towards 0.700.
Gold futures took advantage of a weakened greenback and sluggish bond yields and climbed to $1,719.1, currently trading at $1,743.0 an ounce. US crude oil inventories further went down by 4.523 million barrels, and since Russia reduced gas supplies to Europe, WTI oil futures increased $3 to $98.17 a barrel.
More information on Mitrade website.
Federalreserve
BTCUSDTAccording to the previous analysis, Bitcoin is pulling back to the midline of the ascending channel in the range of 21500 to 21700 after breaking its main support areas, and on the other hand, it is facing the middle resistances of the fork and the 1-hour trend line, and since it has been able to more than from 50% of the previous rising wave, it is more likely to continue the downward trend to the bottom of the channel around the psychological range of 20000, which is symmetrical with the main middle line of the fork, but considering the return from the 0.618 Fibonacci level, if it crosses the 21700 resistance range Its main level is 23,000, and upon its failure, the confirmation of the start of the upward rally up to the range of 28,400 is issued.
Today, the main economic data is the announcement of the interest rate increase for the fifth time in 2022, which increases or decreases the rate 8 times a year.
According to most experts, this rate increase will be 0.75% and will bring the interest rate to 2.5%, and as it is clear in the interest rate graph, 2.5 is the interest rate ceiling in 2019, but if the Federal Reserve Like the European Union, there is a surprise on the way and it increases the interest rate by 1%, this resistance has been broken and it can grow up to the previous ceiling of 5% that happened in 2006-2007 (that is, technically at this level? 😁)
On the other hand, yesterday's economic data, which was the index of consumer confidence and the sale of newly built houses, was significantly lower than the previous period and the expectations of experts (it should be noted that Mr. Biden, who these days has improved the good behavior of the locksmith 😜), it was announced that this data shows a decrease There is a strong demand in the market, and this can be the factor influencing the further increase of the interest rate by the Federal Reserve, because the main determining factors in the American economy are data, not leadership and oversight, and the Federal Reserve and the government operate independently.
With these words, in general, it is more likely that the market will continue to fall, although we are in the most difficult market conditions and new data can affect the market conditions at any moment.
$BTC 👀 – 07/27/2022 #WaveRecount$BTC 👀 – 07/27/2022 #WaveRecount - 📸 🚨
📌 Let me first say, #ElliotWaveTheory wave counting is #subjective. When rules are invalidated by price action, you simply pick yourself up, brush yourself off, and you revise the wave count (recount) accordingly.
📌In this case, upon release of the #Feds decision to #hike the interest rates by another 0.75 #percentage #points. The #DXY (US Dollar Currency Index) , plummeted meanwhile #stocks #indexes #cryptocurrencies rallied.
⚠️ For $BTC specifically, I am subjectively considering the overall corrective wave B (in black) finished; as the break-and-close above $22,264.81, represents a #BreakOfStructure and invalidates the idea of an extended corrective wave c (in blue).
📌 We are now currently working on corrective wave C (in black), which is #bullish impulse wave of 5 swings. Therefore, I recounted the waves and relabeled them accordingly (see the updated screenshot).
🎯 As we are already in Impulse Wave i (in blue), we could enter ('Buy Positions') on the completion of corrective wave ii (in blue) after either 3-7-11 swings down.
✅ If you thought this was helpful or insightful: Follow, Like, or Share ✌🏾 #PublicCommunity
📈 View My Chart:
⚠️ This is not investment or financial advice; Anytime you enter the #markets, you fully accept the #implications at your own risk❗️
#longterm #learning #makingmoneymoves #invest #strength #buildandgrow #breakingnews #crypto #cryptowinter #ElliottWave #FedReserve #StrongDollar #FOMC
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT - FOMC!KOG Report FOMC:
This is our view for FOMC today, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile and can cause aggressive swings in price.
Gold is at a crucial price point at the moment just before a big federal statement release. After the move we’ve had to the downside, we would expect Gold to want to attempt some form of recovery, to at least the 1800 price region. However, as you can see, the institutional selling isn’t giving bulls an opportunity to cover any positions that are being held above. We witnessed a bullish weekly candle last week, but it’s still weak and lacks volume. It was a failed attempt to recover, which entails caution for this FOMC and the days ahead until the end of the month. We published a KOG Report last week showing the liquidity pool sitting below around the 1650-65 price zone; this is a potential target to swoop the lows before an attempt to test the voids above. For this reason, we will look at the extreme levels for FOMC and the days ahead, not being concerned about the immediate range and levels.
We already know the 1750 psychological level is going to try and be defended and have indications of a push up in price if that 1720 -16 level holds as support. We want to see if bears defend it by coming in and taking this down into the liquidity region breaking the yearly low! We can see MA’s grouped together on the hourly and now on the 4 hourly timeframes. We have a huge gap to the mean above on the daily, that either needs to be visited or the ranging price action will bring it down lower. We’re still in bearish mode here expecting a swing to the upside before then a break of this low to continue downwards so let’s set the scene for the potential move to come. As always, we’ll trade this with two scenarios in mind using the 4H extreme levels as a guide.
Scenario 1:
They push the price up towards 1750 or potentially slightly above or below, we see resistance there and a clear rejection in price. This is the first level we feel that will represent an opportunity to short the market down into the 1720, 1710, 1695 and below that 1675 levels. These levels below 1675, especially that 1665-40 region is where we want to see exhaustion in price to then look to take this back up towards the 1750 price point as the first target.
Scenario 2:
They push the price down into the lower support levels of 1690-80, this is where we want to see the first level of support, based on strong support we feel this level would represent an opportunity to then long the market back up towards the 1720, 1735 and above that 1750 price points. As we said above, there is a huge chance they will try to break that level to the downside so expect a swoop into that liquidity pool below. The ideal long is more likely going to be from there and that’s our preferred region at the moment.
Because it is FOMC we’re focusing on the extreme levels, we’re not interested in trying to capture quick pips in a volatile market against the volume driven candles. If the plan works out it works out, if it doesn’t, we’re happy to sit tight and let Excalibur guide us intra-day through the markets.
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Aussie shrugs after inflation reportThe Australian dollar has edged higher on Wednesday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6950 in European trade.
Australia's inflation rate accelerated in the second quarter, but the market reaction was muted, as the 6.1% gain was a notch below the estimate of 6.2%. Inflation still remains the RBA's number one problem, as CPI jumped from 5.1% in Q1. With inflation coming in a bit less than forecast, RBA hiking expectations have been pared lower, which briefly sent the Australian dollar lower.
The key question of "how much, how fast" the RBA will increase rates depends not just on how high inflation is running, but on the resilience of the economy to withstand ever higher rates. The labour market remains robust, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.5% in June, down from 3.8% in May. The trade surplus jumped in May and the manufacturing sector continues to show strong expansion. At the same time, the global growth outlook is uncertain and fears of a slowdown in China are weighing on risk sentiment which could prove to be a major headwind for the Australian dollar.
The minutes of the RBA July meeting stated that policymakers discussed the neutral rate (which is neither expansionary nor contractionary) and the 1.35% cash rate was "well below" that. Governor Lowe has often quoted 2.5% as around neutral, leaving little doubt that the RBA plans more hikes in the second half of the year.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting later today. The markets are expecting a 75bp move, but there is an outside chance of a massive 100bp, as the Fed continues its epic battle with inflation, which accelerated to 9.1% in June, up from 8.6% in May. If, as expected, the Fed delivers a second-straight 75bp move, it will be interesting to see if the US dollar gains any ground or will the reaction be muted. This will depend on what Fed Chair Powell has to say and the tone of his remarks.
There is resistance at 0.7005 and 0.7085
0.6897 is providing support, followed by 0.6817
EUR/USD rolling over ahead of FOMC?EUR/USD seems to have broken range support at 1.0143 ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Prices are retesting that level as resistance. If it holds, extension back toward parity is probably in the cards. Needless to say however, upcoming event risk is heavy-duty and may moot the chart setup.
As it stands, the markets have fully priced in a 75bps Fed rate hike and the central bank will likely deliver accordingly. That'll put the focus on the tone of the accompanying statement and the press conference with Chair Powell to follow.
Looking at Fed Funds futures, the markets' going Fed outlook calls for:
+325bps in 2022
-50bps in 2023
-25bps in 2024
In the past two weeks, USD has pulled back alongside the MOVE index of 1-month implied Treasuries volatility while stocks have rebounded. This suggests that investors are getting increasingly comfortable with the above 2022-24 baseline, and that this has supported some recovery in risk appetite.
However, the Fed must contend with structural inflationary forces such as de-globalization and sticky wages locked in amid the current price growth surge. Further, while priced-in inflation expectations baked into the bond market (tracked via breakeven rates) have fallen, a return to the 2 percent target is seemingly not on the menu for years to come.
With this in mind, officials may signal that easing may not be in the cards so swiftly. That may give the US Dollar fresh fuel for a rally, validating the emerging EUR/USD chart setup.
Focus on the Fed's decision and the EU's energy problemsEUR/USD 🔼
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In Tuesday's financial markets, risk aversion dominated, favoring the dollar most. Several factors affected the mood of the market.
Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, is supplying Germany with approximately 20% of its usual supply of natural gas. For the upcoming winter, the EU countries have agreed to reduce gas consumption by 15% by the end of the six-month period. Despite the fact that Moscow reported that the missing turbine for the pipeline was on its way after maintenance, it has yet to be installed.
Also of interest to speculators were the yields on US bonds. Since 2000, the yield curve has never been more inverted. The yield on 2-year Treasuries is 3.03 percent, while the yield on 10-year notes is 2.76 percent. An inverted curve typically predicts a recession.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.6 percent to 2.9 percent. The organization also issued a warning that the Ukraine conflict and high inflation could tip the world economy into a deep recession. The World Economic Outlook also said that a complete gas cutoff from Russia to Europe and a decline in the nation's oil exports would further impede development in 2023.
With EUR/USD edging closer to 1.0100, the EUR was once more among the USD's weakest rivals. The GBP/USD exchange rate remained above 1.2000, while the AUD/USD closed at 0.6935. The USD/CAD pair increased as oil prices declined, trading close to 1.2890.
There was no movement in safe-haven currencies, with the USD/CHF staying stable at 0.9620 and the USD/JPY currently trading at 136.75.
Spot gold remained at a familiar level, though it was close to the bottom of its most recent range. The price of an ounce of the shiny metal is $1,717.
The United States' decision to sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve contributed to the slight decline in crude oil prices, which was also a result of the depressing mood. WTI's final trading price for the day was $94.90 a barrel.
The US Federal Reserve is presently the center of attention. Although there is a probability of a 100 bps change, it is widely expected that the central bank would increase the funds rate by 75 basis points. Since the most recent Fed meeting, the latter has become less and less plausible as economic growth keeps declining. To control inflation, policymakers might not want to risk a recession.
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ADAUSDTThat's an analysis based on the trend line, price action, and wave analysis. I see a good opportunity when I see the chart on a multi-timeframe. Therefore, I am looking for a suitable entry zone(point), and if after the news of the interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve (Central Bank of America), it will not break its support zones, it will be a good risk to buy and get a good profit.
SHORT US30 to 31000US30 H&S formed a H&S pattern indicating buyers exit, $DJI will bleed after FED 75 or 100 bps interest rate hike.
Good RRR setup, fundamentally solid.
The Real Cost of Fed Rate HikesCBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1!
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on July 26-27. Market widely expects a 75-basis-points (bps) Fed Funds rate increase, from current target of 1.50%-1.75% to 2.25%-2.50%. The call for a 100-point hike, while still feasible, is weakened after U.S. gasoline price dropped 70 cents per gallon in the past month. New data hints that the runaway inflation may be contained.
Federal funds Rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow or lend excess reserves overnight. It is the most important global interest rate benchmark, as it directly or indirectly influences the borrowing cost for governments, corporations, and households. By the end of July, Fed Funds would have gone up by 2.25% (assuming 75 bps hike in July) from zero before March. The Fed is not afraid of raising rate even higher until inflation moves back to its 2% policy target.
How much will a higher interest rate cost for government, business, or household? I will illustrate the impact of 100bps rate increase in this analysis. All data comes from either the Fed or USdebtclock.org, unless otherwise noted.
Total Debt : By the end of Q1 2022, the total debt outstanding in the U.S. by both public and private sectors is $90.1 trillion. Mind-boggling. What does the number mean?
• U.S. GDP was $23.0 trillion in 2021. Debt-to-GDP ratio is 3.92. It would take all Americans four years to pay off their debt, without spending or paying interest.
• US population is 332,403,650 as of January 2022 per US Census Bureau. Debt per capita is $270,949. Each time a baby is born, he or she already owes more than a quarter million dollar.
US National Debt : $30.6 trillion based on USdebtclock.org real-time calculation. This is just the debt owed by Federal government and various federal agencies.
• National Debt to GDP ratio: 133%.
• Federal tax revenue is estimated at $4.4 trillion in 2022. If our government just levies taxes and does nothing else, it will take seven years to pay off the debt.
• Federal budget is $6.0 trillion in 2022, with budget deficit running at $1.6 trillion. Interest on debt is $440 billion, the fourth largest budget item. If interest rate goes up 100 bps across the yield curve, federal government will have to come up with $306 billion extra to service the debt.
• Federal budget in 2022: $6.0 trillion
o budget deficit $1.6 trillion
o Interest on debt $440 billion (4th largest budget item)
o Remark: $306 billion extra to service the debt, if interest rate goes up by 100bps
• When all the rate hikes are over, annual debt interest payment could be over $1.0 trillion. It would become the 3rd largest budget item, behind Medicare ($1.4 trillion), Social Security ($1.0 trillion) and ahead of Defense ($751 billion)!
State and Local Government debt : $3.3 trillion, of which $2.1 trillion from state governments and $1.2 trillion from local governments.
• If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, state and local governments will have to come up with $33 billion extra to service their debt.
• We may expect tax hikes from state and local governments, while public services may be cut back at the same time.
US Corporate Debt : $11 trillion, which includes all debt issued by non-financial corporations domiciled in the U.S.
• If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, American businesses will have to come up with $110 billion extra to service their debt.
• We may expect higher prices for goods and services, as businesses pass on the interest cost to consumers.
• Companies with high debt ratio may increase the chance of delinquency.
US Household Debt : $23.5 trillion. This includes mortgage, auto loan, credit card loan and student loan, etc.
• Personal debt per citizen is $70,304. If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, each person will have to come up with $703 extra a year to service their debt.
• American families are fighting with a higher cost-of-living on multiple fronts. If the U.S. falls into a recession, their financial situation will worsen significantly.
• Mortgage delinquency is expected to rise significantly.
The remainder, approximately $21 trillion, is outstanding balance of credit instruments issued by banks and other financial institutions.
Believe it or not, we have only just scrubbed the surface of our mounting debt problem. Most government liabilities are unfunded or underfunded. Each year, the Federal Government borrows new money to pay off the maturing debt.
Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are pay-as-you-go programs. Government taxes current workers to pay for the benefits of retirees, without any money saving up for current workers. No one has a crystal ball if the benefits are still there when they reach retirement.
With such a depressing future ahead of us, are there any trading opportunities? The answer is yes. I am counting on the inverted yield curve to return to historical normal.
Yield curve plots the interest rates on government bonds with different maturity dates, notably three-month Treasury Bills, two-year and 10-year Treasury Notes, 15-year and 30-year Treasury Bonds. Bond investors expect to be paid more for locking up their money for a long stretch, so interest rates on long-term debt are higher than those on short-term. Plotted out on a chart, the various yields for bonds create an upward sloping line.
Sometimes short-term rates rise above long-term ones. That negative relationship is called yield curve inversion. An inversion has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century, so it’s seen as a leading indicator of economic downturn.
On July 21st, the yield on two-year Treasury notes stood at 3.00 percent, above the 2.91 percent yield on 10-year notes. By comparison, two-year yields were one percentage point lower than the 10-year yields a year ago.
Why are we seeing yield curve inversion now? Short-term yield directly responded to Fed rate hikes. It has gone up 225 bps in five months. Longer term yields are determined by credit market supply and demand. The prospect of an upcoming recession held off lending by businesses and households alike, keeping the yields relatively stable.
In my opinion, yield curve inversion could not sustain for long. Borrowers would flock to lower rate debt, pushing up demand for longer term credit. Market force would revert the yield curve to a normal one with interest rates on long-term debts higher than those on short-term ones.
Are there any instruments we could leverage to trade the reversal of yield curve inversion? Long the Spread of CBOT Micro 10-Year Yield (10Y) and 2-Year Yield (2YY) .
Traditional Treasury Futures are quoted in Treasury Notes price, which can be viewed as the present value of future payments that bondholder will receive – interest payment every six months and the return of principal at par value at maturity.
Micro Yield Futures are more intuitive. They are quoted in yield directly. On July 22nd, August 10Y Yield Futures (10YQ2) was settled at 2.819. August 2Y Yield Futures (2YYQ2) was settled at 3.06. The 10Y-2Y spread is -0.241.
The 10Y-2Y spread has been positive in recent years. It turned negative in the beginning of July as we experienced the inverted yield curve. I expect the spread to return to historic normal - a positive number, in the coming months.
To trade Micro Yield futures, margins are $240 for 10Y and $330 for 2YY. A long spread can be constructed by a Long 10Y and a Short 2YY positions.
The great thing about a spread trade lies with the fact that you don’t have to be right in predicting the direction of interest rates. Spread will be widened if 10Y rises faster than 2YY. Even in a falling rate environment, if 10Y fell less than 2YY, the spread will be enlarged too.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
AUDUSD REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE Currently the Australian Dollar is trading below 0.6950 area.
Another leg higher is at doubt as price is in a downtrend on the daily timeframe as shown by the trendline.
Price is forming lower highs and lower lows.
The stochastic oscillator with 5 2 2 as the setting is also indicating downward pressure as it is trading below 50.
If the bears continue mounting pressure we expect a drop in price towards 0.6800 or 0.6700
Major currencies retreat ahead of another Fed rate hikeEUR/USD 🔽
GBP/USD ▶️
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After a week of rallying, greenback peers have weakened towards the US currency, mostly due to disappointing domestic economic data, recession fears, and the imminent 75 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while some even predicted a full percentage increase. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, Germany, and France all missed market estimates, signaling a slowing economy,
EUR/USD thus went on a continuous decline to 1.021.
Despite trading with considerable fluctuations, GBP/USD closed at 1.1996 with negligible gains. Although the British Pound did breach the 1.2000 level against the US dollar, the currency pair soon lost support and went below it again. Meanwhile, AUD/USD fell to 0.6925, and USD/CAD was at 1.2914 last Friday, now edging towards 1.3000 level, with a high of 1.2944.
Gold price climbed to $1,727 an ounce, WTI crude futures experienced an oscillation between $94 to $96, to a closing price of $94.7 a barrel. Other than the Fed interest rate decision, multiple GDP readings will be available from Canada, the Eurozone, Germany, and the US this week.
In US stocks, Social media firm Snap (SNAP) was one of the worst performers, dipping over 39% as its recent results were less than satisfying.
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Bitcoin Trend Analytics July 21st - still needs confirmationAfter pulling back around the turning point, BTC rallied up against the next key resistance yesterday and failed. Today the key resistance is at $24698.83.
BTC will come back again and test $22700. If it holds the line, $24698.83 will be the next target.
If it breaks down into the box again, the short-term supports are $21382.70; $20825.47. The key support of the month is $18659.72.
Monitoring Fed’s decision from July 27-28. It will generate a heavy impact on the market. Previous stats: 1.75%; expected target rate: 2.5%-2.75%.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - SHORT POSITIONUsing a 20-day ranged Fibonacci, investors can see that SPY-S&P-500 has closed yesterday 18/07/22 at $381. Using a 20-day ranged Fibonacci, investors can see that this price is closer to its resistance level of $397 whereas it’s support is equal to $363. This is a bareish signal, investors should expect a correction closer to it’s support.
For further accuracy, using standard deviation; Bollinger bands have been applied using a 20-day range. The Bollinger’s lower bound is equal to $369, it’s upper bound is equal to $392. This Bollinger further supports the bareish signals presented by the Fibonacci given that it’s currently priced closer to the Bollinger’s upper bound. Therefore, it presents an additional bareish signal with a smaller and more accurate range in comparison to the Fibonacci.
A MACD indicator is a 9-day EMA, it is used to identify turns. The blue MACD line appears to be running parallel to the red signal line. This suggests neither a bearish nor a bullish sentiment. Based on the MACD DEMA it would be reasonable to anticipate a steady momentum of price movement.
All things considered; I would anticipate steady, bearish underlying movements of the SPY-S&P-500. The buyer should set a strike price in line with the Fibonacci’s $397 resistance. I anticipate the stock to reach it’s lower bound Bollinger level of $369 by the end of the week.
Greenback softens from cooled 100 bps Fed rate hike betsEUR/USD 🔼
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Previous comments from Federal Reserve officials have shifted market bets from a 100 bps rate hike to 75, pushing the US dollar to retreat against its peers, with the British Pound gaining 99 pips to 1.1954 towards the greenback as the leading currency pair. Later today, the UK Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings will be announced, and investors expect the latest readings to have little to no change from last month.
Forecasts for the Eurozone Consumer Price Index also stayed the same at 8.6%, still high enough to prompt a possible 25 bps interest rate increase from the European Central Bank on Thursday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD rose to 1.0141 with a week-high of 1.0193, as Bitcoin rallied over 7% to $22,300.
Fresh meeting minutes for July revealed the Reserve Bank of Australia's perspective for the 50 bps rate hike, the document addressed increased savings, a tight labor market, and overall resilience as key components for its economy to combat inflation. AUD/USD closed with minor gains at 0.6811, USD/CAD slumped to 1.2902 and rebounded to 1.2978.
Gold futures retreated from a high of $1,721.0 to $1,710.2, now trading at $1,704.8 an ounce. Though the annual maintenance is still underway, Gazprom has warned Europe that the Nord Stream 1 gas supply may not resume on time. As a result, oil prices climbed and met resistance at $99 level, finally closing at $99.42 a barrel.
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US30 Intra-Week Analysis July 18th 2022Last week price pushed lower to test the key level 30200 due to the scares for a potential 100 bps FED rate hike and USD hitting highs not traded since September 2002. Price then rejected that level ending the week above 30500. This week price has already continued bullish to retest the 31500 level creating a doubled top and continuing back down to 31k. As price is slightly above this key level if we begin to trade below 31k we can expect sells to at least 30200 respecting that double top. But if this bearish move is short lived and we fail to break below 31k we can expect buys to 31500 then potentially even higher to 32500.
Bearish market is not overWe are not at the bottom of a bearish trend because the bottom does not allow you to buy and trade.as i predicted btc is now dependent on fundamental news !If you want to predict BTC price you just have to follow war news and federal reserve! my advice is just trade in this area but make your own decision on every move
Aussie edges up after strong US retail salesThe week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%. This indicates that US consumers are still spending despite the toll that higher inflation and higher rates are taking on disposable income. The strong retail sales report will raise expectations that the Fed will be content to raise rates "only" by 0.75%, rather than a full 1.00% at the next meeting. When the markets have a chance to digest the numbers on Monday, risk appetite will likely rise, which could push the US dollar lower.
China's economy slowed down in the second quarter, which is no real surprise given the Covid-zero policy which resulted in mass lockdowns. The economy posted a small gain of 0.4% YoY, missing the estimate of 1.0% (4.8% prior). On an annualized basis, GDP contracted by 2.6%, worse than the forecast of -1.5% (+1.4% prior). These weak numbers were offset by a strong bounce in retail sales, which jumped 3.10% in June, crushing the estimate of -0.3% (-6.7% prior). If China can avoid further lockdowns in key cities such as Shanghai, we can expect GDP to rebound in Q3. The health of China's economy is critical for Australia, as China is its biggest trading partner.
An excellent employment report earlier this week on Thursday has raised concerns that the RBA may need to accelerate its rate-tightening cycle and consider larger rate increases. The economy gained 88.8 thousand new jobs, blowing the estimate of 30.0 thousand out of the water. As well, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.9% and below the 3.8% estimate. The RBA has been raising rates aggressively, but even so, the cash rate is still at a low 1.35%, and clearly the RBA will have to hike sharply to make a dent in inflation, which is running at 5.1%. We'll get a look at CPI for the second quarter at the end of July.
AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6782. Next, there is resistance at 0.6839
There is support at 0.6706 and 0.6649