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EUR/USD rolling over ahead of FOMC?EUR/USD seems to have broken range support at 1.0143 ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Prices are retesting that level as resistance. If it holds, extension back toward parity is probably in the cards. Needless to say however, upcoming event risk is heavy-duty and may moot the chart setup. As it stands, the markets have fully priced in a 75bps Fed rate hike and the central bank will likely deliver accordingly. That'll put the focus on the tone of the accompanying statement and the press conference with Chair Powell to follow. Looking at Fed Funds futures, the markets' going Fed outlook calls for: +325bps in 2022 -50bps in 2023 -25bps in 2024 In the past two weeks, USD has pulled back alongside the MOVE index of 1-month implied Treasuries volatility while stocks have rebounded. This suggests that investors are getting increasingly comfortable with the above 2022-24 baseline, and that this has supported some recovery in risk appetite. However, the Fed must contend with structural inflationary forces such as de-globalization and sticky wages locked in amid the current price growth surge. Further, while priced-in inflation expectations baked into the bond market (tracked via breakeven rates) have fallen, a return to the 2 percent target is seemingly not on the menu for years to come. With this in mind, officials may signal that easing may not be in the cards so swiftly. That may give the US Dollar fresh fuel for a rally, validating the emerging EUR/USD chart setup.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
Focus on the Fed's decision and the EU's energy problemsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/CHF 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔼 In Tuesday's financial markets, risk aversion dominated, favoring the dollar most. Several factors affected the mood of the market. Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, is supplying Germany with approximately 20% of its usual supply of natural gas. For the upcoming winter, the EU countries have agreed to reduce gas consumption by 15% by the end of the six-month period. Despite the fact that Moscow reported that the missing turbine for the pipeline was on its way after maintenance, it has yet to be installed. Also of interest to speculators were the yields on US bonds. Since 2000, the yield curve has never been more inverted. The yield on 2-year Treasuries is 3.03 percent, while the yield on 10-year notes is 2.76 percent. An inverted curve typically predicts a recession. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced its global growth forecast for this year from 3.6 percent to 2.9 percent. The organization also issued a warning that the Ukraine conflict and high inflation could tip the world economy into a deep recession. The World Economic Outlook also said that a complete gas cutoff from Russia to Europe and a decline in the nation's oil exports would further impede development in 2023. With EUR/USD edging closer to 1.0100, the EUR was once more among the USD's weakest rivals. The GBP/USD exchange rate remained above 1.2000, while the AUD/USD closed at 0.6935. The USD/CAD pair increased as oil prices declined, trading close to 1.2890. There was no movement in safe-haven currencies, with the USD/CHF staying stable at 0.9620 and the USD/JPY currently trading at 136.75. Spot gold remained at a familiar level, though it was close to the bottom of its most recent range. The price of an ounce of the shiny metal is $1,717. The United States' decision to sell an additional 20 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve contributed to the slight decline in crude oil prices, which was also a result of the depressing mood. WTI's final trading price for the day was $94.90 a barrel. The US Federal Reserve is presently the center of attention. Although there is a probability of a 100 bps change, it is widely expected that the central bank would increase the funds rate by 75 basis points. Since the most recent Fed meeting, the latter has become less and less plausible as economic growth keeps declining. To control inflation, policymakers might not want to risk a recession. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
The Real Cost of Fed Rate HikesCBOT_MINI:10Y1! CBOT_MINI:2YY1! The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is scheduled to meet on July 26-27. Market widely expects a 75-basis-points (bps) Fed Funds rate increase, from current target of 1.50%-1.75% to 2.25%-2.50%. The call for a 100-point hike, while still feasible, is weakened after U.S. gasoline price dropped 70 cents per gallon in the past month. New data hints that the runaway inflation may be contained. Federal funds Rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other to borrow or lend excess reserves overnight. It is the most important global interest rate benchmark, as it directly or indirectly influences the borrowing cost for governments, corporations, and households. By the end of July, Fed Funds would have gone up by 2.25% (assuming 75 bps hike in July) from zero before March. The Fed is not afraid of raising rate even higher until inflation moves back to its 2% policy target. How much will a higher interest rate cost for government, business, or household? I will illustrate the impact of 100bps rate increase in this analysis. All data comes from either the Fed or USdebtclock.org, unless otherwise noted. Total Debt : By the end of Q1 2022, the total debt outstanding in the U.S. by both public and private sectors is $90.1 trillion. Mind-boggling. What does the number mean? • U.S. GDP was $23.0 trillion in 2021. Debt-to-GDP ratio is 3.92. It would take all Americans four years to pay off their debt, without spending or paying interest. • US population is 332,403,650 as of January 2022 per US Census Bureau. Debt per capita is $270,949. Each time a baby is born, he or she already owes more than a quarter million dollar. US National Debt : $30.6 trillion based on USdebtclock.org real-time calculation. This is just the debt owed by Federal government and various federal agencies. • National Debt to GDP ratio: 133%. • Federal tax revenue is estimated at $4.4 trillion in 2022. If our government just levies taxes and does nothing else, it will take seven years to pay off the debt. • Federal budget is $6.0 trillion in 2022, with budget deficit running at $1.6 trillion. Interest on debt is $440 billion, the fourth largest budget item. If interest rate goes up 100 bps across the yield curve, federal government will have to come up with $306 billion extra to service the debt. • Federal budget in 2022: $6.0 trillion o budget deficit $1.6 trillion o Interest on debt $440 billion (4th largest budget item) o Remark: $306 billion extra to service the debt, if interest rate goes up by 100bps • When all the rate hikes are over, annual debt interest payment could be over $1.0 trillion. It would become the 3rd largest budget item, behind Medicare ($1.4 trillion), Social Security ($1.0 trillion) and ahead of Defense ($751 billion)! State and Local Government debt : $3.3 trillion, of which $2.1 trillion from state governments and $1.2 trillion from local governments. • If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, state and local governments will have to come up with $33 billion extra to service their debt. • We may expect tax hikes from state and local governments, while public services may be cut back at the same time. US Corporate Debt : $11 trillion, which includes all debt issued by non-financial corporations domiciled in the U.S. • If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, American businesses will have to come up with $110 billion extra to service their debt. • We may expect higher prices for goods and services, as businesses pass on the interest cost to consumers. • Companies with high debt ratio may increase the chance of delinquency. US Household Debt : $23.5 trillion. This includes mortgage, auto loan, credit card loan and student loan, etc. • Personal debt per citizen is $70,304. If interest rate goes up by 100 bps, each person will have to come up with $703 extra a year to service their debt. • American families are fighting with a higher cost-of-living on multiple fronts. If the U.S. falls into a recession, their financial situation will worsen significantly. • Mortgage delinquency is expected to rise significantly. The remainder, approximately $21 trillion, is outstanding balance of credit instruments issued by banks and other financial institutions. Believe it or not, we have only just scrubbed the surface of our mounting debt problem. Most government liabilities are unfunded or underfunded. Each year, the Federal Government borrows new money to pay off the maturing debt. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are pay-as-you-go programs. Government taxes current workers to pay for the benefits of retirees, without any money saving up for current workers. No one has a crystal ball if the benefits are still there when they reach retirement. With such a depressing future ahead of us, are there any trading opportunities? The answer is yes. I am counting on the inverted yield curve to return to historical normal. Yield curve plots the interest rates on government bonds with different maturity dates, notably three-month Treasury Bills, two-year and 10-year Treasury Notes, 15-year and 30-year Treasury Bonds. Bond investors expect to be paid more for locking up their money for a long stretch, so interest rates on long-term debt are higher than those on short-term. Plotted out on a chart, the various yields for bonds create an upward sloping line. Sometimes short-term rates rise above long-term ones. That negative relationship is called yield curve inversion. An inversion has preceded every U.S. recession for the past half century, so it’s seen as a leading indicator of economic downturn. On July 21st, the yield on two-year Treasury notes stood at 3.00 percent, above the 2.91 percent yield on 10-year notes. By comparison, two-year yields were one percentage point lower than the 10-year yields a year ago. Why are we seeing yield curve inversion now? Short-term yield directly responded to Fed rate hikes. It has gone up 225 bps in five months. Longer term yields are determined by credit market supply and demand. The prospect of an upcoming recession held off lending by businesses and households alike, keeping the yields relatively stable. In my opinion, yield curve inversion could not sustain for long. Borrowers would flock to lower rate debt, pushing up demand for longer term credit. Market force would revert the yield curve to a normal one with interest rates on long-term debts higher than those on short-term ones. Are there any instruments we could leverage to trade the reversal of yield curve inversion? Long the Spread of CBOT Micro 10-Year Yield (10Y) and 2-Year Yield (2YY) . Traditional Treasury Futures are quoted in Treasury Notes price, which can be viewed as the present value of future payments that bondholder will receive – interest payment every six months and the return of principal at par value at maturity. Micro Yield Futures are more intuitive. They are quoted in yield directly. On July 22nd, August 10Y Yield Futures (10YQ2) was settled at 2.819. August 2Y Yield Futures (2YYQ2) was settled at 3.06. The 10Y-2Y spread is -0.241. The 10Y-2Y spread has been positive in recent years. It turned negative in the beginning of July as we experienced the inverted yield curve. I expect the spread to return to historic normal - a positive number, in the coming months. To trade Micro Yield futures, margins are $240 for 10Y and $330 for 2YY. A long spread can be constructed by a Long 10Y and a Short 2YY positions. The great thing about a spread trade lies with the fact that you don’t have to be right in predicting the direction of interest rates. Spread will be widened if 10Y rises faster than 2YY. Even in a falling rate environment, if 10Y fell less than 2YY, the spread will be enlarged too. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Major currencies retreat ahead of another Fed rate hikeEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD ▶️ AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 After a week of rallying, greenback peers have weakened towards the US currency, mostly due to disappointing domestic economic data, recession fears, and the imminent 75 bps rate hike from the Federal Reserve, while some even predicted a full percentage increase. The S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, Germany, and France all missed market estimates, signaling a slowing economy, EUR/USD thus went on a continuous decline to 1.021. Despite trading with considerable fluctuations, GBP/USD closed at 1.1996 with negligible gains. Although the British Pound did breach the 1.2000 level against the US dollar, the currency pair soon lost support and went below it again. Meanwhile, AUD/USD fell to 0.6925, and USD/CAD was at 1.2914 last Friday, now edging towards 1.3000 level, with a high of 1.2944. Gold price climbed to $1,727 an ounce, WTI crude futures experienced an oscillation between $94 to $96, to a closing price of $94.7 a barrel. Other than the Fed interest rate decision, multiple GDP readings will be available from Canada, the Eurozone, Germany, and the US this week. In US stocks, Social media firm Snap (SNAP) was one of the worst performers, dipping over 39% as its recent results were less than satisfying. More information on the Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Bitcoin Trend Analytics July 21st - still needs confirmationAfter pulling back around the turning point, BTC rallied up against the next key resistance yesterday and failed. Today the key resistance is at $24698.83. BTC will come back again and test $22700. If it holds the line, $24698.83 will be the next target. If it breaks down into the box again, the short-term supports are $21382.70; $20825.47. The key support of the month is $18659.72. Monitoring Fed’s decision from July 27-28. It will generate a heavy impact on the market. Previous stats: 1.75%; expected target rate: 2.5%-2.75%.
Long
by BitMidas
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST - SHORT POSITIONUsing a 20-day ranged Fibonacci, investors can see that SPY-S&P-500 has closed yesterday 18/07/22 at $381. Using a 20-day ranged Fibonacci, investors can see that this price is closer to its resistance level of $397 whereas it’s support is equal to $363. This is a bareish signal, investors should expect a correction closer to it’s support. For further accuracy, using standard deviation; Bollinger bands have been applied using a 20-day range. The Bollinger’s lower bound is equal to $369, it’s upper bound is equal to $392. This Bollinger further supports the bareish signals presented by the Fibonacci given that it’s currently priced closer to the Bollinger’s upper bound. Therefore, it presents an additional bareish signal with a smaller and more accurate range in comparison to the Fibonacci. A MACD indicator is a 9-day EMA, it is used to identify turns. The blue MACD line appears to be running parallel to the red signal line. This suggests neither a bearish nor a bullish sentiment. Based on the MACD DEMA it would be reasonable to anticipate a steady momentum of price movement. All things considered; I would anticipate steady, bearish underlying movements of the SPY-S&P-500. The buyer should set a strike price in line with the Fibonacci’s $397 resistance. I anticipate the stock to reach it’s lower bound Bollinger level of $369 by the end of the week.
AMEX:SPYShort
by vf_investment
1
Greenback softens from cooled 100 bps Fed rate hike betsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Previous comments from Federal Reserve officials have shifted market bets from a 100 bps rate hike to 75, pushing the US dollar to retreat against its peers, with the British Pound gaining 99 pips to 1.1954 towards the greenback as the leading currency pair. Later today, the UK Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings will be announced, and investors expect the latest readings to have little to no change from last month. Forecasts for the Eurozone Consumer Price Index also stayed the same at 8.6%, still high enough to prompt a possible 25 bps interest rate increase from the European Central Bank on Thursday. Meanwhile, EUR/USD rose to 1.0141 with a week-high of 1.0193, as Bitcoin rallied over 7% to $22,300. Fresh meeting minutes for July revealed the Reserve Bank of Australia's perspective for the 50 bps rate hike, the document addressed increased savings, a tight labor market, and overall resilience as key components for its economy to combat inflation. AUD/USD closed with minor gains at 0.6811, USD/CAD slumped to 1.2902 and rebounded to 1.2978. Gold futures retreated from a high of $1,721.0 to $1,710.2, now trading at $1,704.8 an ounce. Though the annual maintenance is still underway, Gazprom has warned Europe that the Nord Stream 1 gas supply may not resume on time. As a result, oil prices climbed and met resistance at $99 level, finally closing at $99.42 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
US30 Intra-Week Analysis July 18th 2022Last week price pushed lower to test the key level 30200 due to the scares for a potential 100 bps FED rate hike and USD hitting highs not traded since September 2002. Price then rejected that level ending the week above 30500. This week price has already continued bullish to retest the 31500 level creating a doubled top and continuing back down to 31k. As price is slightly above this key level if we begin to trade below 31k we can expect sells to at least 30200 respecting that double top. But if this bearish move is short lived and we fail to break below 31k we can expect buys to 31500 then potentially even higher to 32500.
U
by Itskaleel
Aussie edges up after strong US retail salesThe week wrapped up on a high note, as June US retail sales beat expectations. The headline and core readings both accelerated in June, with solid gains of 1.0%. This indicates that US consumers are still spending despite the toll that higher inflation and higher rates are taking on disposable income. The strong retail sales report will raise expectations that the Fed will be content to raise rates "only" by 0.75%, rather than a full 1.00% at the next meeting. When the markets have a chance to digest the numbers on Monday, risk appetite will likely rise, which could push the US dollar lower. China's economy slowed down in the second quarter, which is no real surprise given the Covid-zero policy which resulted in mass lockdowns. The economy posted a small gain of 0.4% YoY, missing the estimate of 1.0% (4.8% prior). On an annualized basis, GDP contracted by 2.6%, worse than the forecast of -1.5% (+1.4% prior). These weak numbers were offset by a strong bounce in retail sales, which jumped 3.10% in June, crushing the estimate of -0.3% (-6.7% prior). If China can avoid further lockdowns in key cities such as Shanghai, we can expect GDP to rebound in Q3. The health of China's economy is critical for Australia, as China is its biggest trading partner. An excellent employment report earlier this week on Thursday has raised concerns that the RBA may need to accelerate its rate-tightening cycle and consider larger rate increases. The economy gained 88.8 thousand new jobs, blowing the estimate of 30.0 thousand out of the water. As well, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, down from 3.9% and below the 3.8% estimate. The RBA has been raising rates aggressively, but even so, the cash rate is still at a low 1.35%, and clearly the RBA will have to hike sharply to make a dent in inflation, which is running at 5.1%. We'll get a look at CPI for the second quarter at the end of July. AUD/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 0.6782. Next, there is resistance at 0.6839 There is support at 0.6706 and 0.6649
by OANDA
Fears of a 100 bps US rate hike cool downEUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI ▶️ Assuring Federal Reserve officials' comments have calmed investors' concerns for a historical 100 basis points (bps) interest rate increase, as the 9.1% headline inflation could persuade the Fed for more aggressive measures. The latest initial jobless claims rose to 244,000 over a 238,000 forecast. The Retail Sales and Consumer Sentiment readings tonight are expected to indicate a slightly contracted economy as inflation rages on. Meanwhile, the greenback retained its strength against other major currencies. USD/CAD reached 1.3223 before closing at 1.3117. USD/JPY even surged 154 pips to 138.93, a 24-year high. The EUR/USD pair broke parity levels to a two-decade low, after recovering from 0.9950, it closed at 1.0016 with little change. The British Pound lost 66 pips to 1.1822. AUD/USD slid to 0.6745, giving up 15 pips. Gold prices also took a hit from the dominant US dollar, gold futures briefly broke $1,700 support, managing to return to 1,705.8 with a $30 deficit. Recession fear still haunts the oil market, crude oil futures traded flat at 95.78 as they recouped from a low of 91.03. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Bitcoin continues to fall?😪July 26, the next Federal Reserve meeting We all know that US interest rates will rise again. Also we are in a very reliable support. Now the main question is, in the next 12 days, will this support be broken or not?? Most of the time, 5 days before the Fed meeting, the price of Bitcoin will drop, so be careful with your long trades. Next week will be very important. But I still hope that Bitcoin will continue to hold its core support. If you have a long transaction, message me for advice and management.
by ALI_LAZGIPOUR
1
Sterling pares losses after US CPI jumpsThe British pound has taken investors for a ride today, as GBP/USD dropped sharply but has since recovered. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.1856, down 0.28%. It has been a busy day on the economic calendar, with a host of UK releases and the US inflation report. In the US, the long-sought-after inflation peak remains as elusive as ever. The June inflation report showed headline inflation rising to 9.1% YoY, up from 8.6% and above the 8.8% estimate. Core CPI ticked lower to 5.9%, down from 6.0%. Still, this was higher than the forecast of 5.7%. With inflation remaining at high levels, the path is clear for the Fed to fire at will in order to curb inflation. Just a few days ago, CME's FedWatch pegged a 75bp hike at 93%, with a 7% chance of a 100bp move. The June inflation release has dramatically changed the FedWatch assessment, with a 53.6% of a 75bp move and 46.3% likelihood of a 100bp hike. The British pound took a tumble immediately after the US inflation release, falling 0.76%. The pound has managed to claw back most of these losses, but the risk of the US dollar moving higher remains elevated, as a massive 100bp increase has become a very real possibility at the Fed meeting in late July. Overshadowed by the dramatic US inflation report, UK indicators enjoyed a good day. GDP for May rose 0.5% MoM, bouncing back from a -0.2% reading in April and beating the estimate of 0.1%. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both ended a 3-month skid with monthly gains of 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively. Still, the bigger picture for the UK economy is not a rosy one, as a Bloomberg poll of economists indicated a 45% likelihood of the UK economy tipping into a recession in the next 12 months. GBP/USD tested support at 1.1876 earlier in the North American session. Below, there is support at 1.1736  GBP/USD faces resistance at 1.2025 and 1.2175
by OANDA
1
US30 Intra-Week Analysis July 13th 2022Last week we got the bullish closure above 31k giving us the conformation for price to clear the range to 31400, reject, then continue to range between 31k and 31400 for the remainder of the week. This week as recession scares and FED rate increases continue to bring FUD to the markets we saw price breakout below this HTF consolidation zone and to now test 30500. Likely what we could see in the short term is for price to pull back slightly to 31k before continuing this bearish momentum to pre-pandemic lows. Otherwise closures above 31k expect further bullish moves. BUYS ABOVE 31K & SELLS BELOW 30500.
U
by Itskaleel
Euro teasingly flirts with parityFor those following the euro's close encounters with parity, the currency played a game of tease earlier today. In the European session, EUR/USD dropped to parity with the US dollar, a line of psychological importance. However, the euro would not budge any lower, and is currently at 1.0068 in the North American session, up 0.28% today. I would not be surprised if EUR/USD does break below parity in the coming days, for the first time in some twenty years. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment has been stuck in negative territory for months, indicative of strong pessimism about the economic outlook. The July release earlier today fell to -53.8, down sharply from -28.0 in June and missing the consensus of -38.3. The eurozone economy is grappling with soaring inflation and the war in Ukraine shows every indication of dragging on. The Nordstream 1 pipeline, the main channel for Russian oil to Germany, closed for maintenance on Monday and there are fears that Moscow could decide to keep the pipeline closed. This would prove a nightmarish scenario for Germany, with winter only a few months away. The US dollar stormed out of the gates on Monday, buoyed by a stronger than expected non-farm payroll report on Friday. The economy produced 372 thousand jobs in June, well above the estimate of 268 thousand and close to the May release of 384 thousand (revised from 390 thousand). The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% and wages rose by 0.3%, which means that the Fed has a clear path to move ahead with a second straight 75bp hike at the July meeting. The Fed is not taking any prisoners in its battle against inflation and is clearly willing to deliver 75bp salvos until inflation eases. It wasn't long ago that a 50bp hike was considered a massive move; now such an increase would barely raise an eyebrow. The US releases inflation on Wednesday, a key release that could move the US dollar. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 8.6% to 8.8%, and if inflation does move higher, it would likely cement a 75bp move from the Fed and send the dollar higher. Conversely, a surprise drop in inflation would raise hopes that inflation has peaked and the Fed might resort to a 50bp increase, sending the dollar lower. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0018 in the European session. Below, there is support at 0.9889  There is resistance at 1.0124 and 1.0242
by OANDA